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View Full Version : Who will have the biggest breakout season?*



Stuckey#3
09-24-2011, 08:20 PM
I have been reading some blogs/lists about players ready to break through... Discussion on the current batch of NBA stars is getting stale. Out of these players who will have the biggest breakout season?*

*if there is a next season.
** I left Wilson Chandler off the list due to his no-opt out clause in China.

85BearsDefense
09-24-2011, 08:29 PM
Omer Asik

DwayneMVPwade
09-24-2011, 08:30 PM
Demar Derozan. Worked hard on his game this summer and look at our team.

ManRam
09-24-2011, 08:32 PM
I voted Jrue.

If DeRozen ever learns how to shoot at all, he'll be a great player. I'm not sure he will though...and not sure he'll break out any more than he did last year.

Hostetler
09-24-2011, 08:34 PM
I voted Harden, just plays in a good system for him.

Swashcuff
09-24-2011, 08:40 PM
Jrue, Harden, DeRozan and Gortat are all solid choices IMO. Also I'd add Serge Ibaka and Ty Lawson aren't bad choices also.

I voted Jrue but I certainly expect to see Gortat have a breakout year.

thenetslegend
09-24-2011, 08:40 PM
i voted cousins, when the season is over he will prove himself as a legit center.

irobson
09-24-2011, 08:40 PM
john wall

MTar786
09-24-2011, 08:41 PM
wow.. none of these guys will 'break out' im surprised that we probably wont see a break out year this season.. and not because of the lockout..

i wonder who will win MIP

Stuckey#3
09-24-2011, 08:42 PM
I went with DeMar as well. If he is the Raps #1 option next year he will dominate the scoring load. I was going to go with the homer pick in Monroe... but I think Moose needs 2-3 years before he becomes top five at his position.

thenetslegend
09-24-2011, 08:43 PM
I voted Jrue.

If DeRozen ever learns how to shoot at all, he'll be a great player. I'm not sure he will though...and not sure he'll break out any more than he did last year.

im a fan of jrue, but how much better could he possibly get? not enough to be considered a "breakout season"

ManRam
09-24-2011, 08:45 PM
Harden at best will be a third option...thus I don't see him breaking out big time. He's a great player, but Durant and Russy are still gonna steal most of the points. That's why I like Jrue...I think he can be the #1 perimeter option. DeRozan even is a much better pick here, even though he scored 17+ points a game last year and it's gonna be hard to "break out" after doing that. He'll have to get well into the 20s, and I don't see that yet.

Stack_NJNets
09-24-2011, 08:48 PM
DeMar or Jrue Holiday

Swashcuff
09-24-2011, 08:58 PM
im a fan of jrue, but how much better could he possibly get? not enough to be considered a "breakout season"

Jrue was one of only 5 20 year olds in the history of the game to average 14 points, 4 rebounds and 6 assists per game. The others being LeBron James, Chris Paul, Magic Johnson and John Wall.

In his second season in the league he played the PG like a seasoned veteran. He improved his defense and is already a top 5 defender at the PG position. He has the size, decent athleticism, able to read defenses well, an excellent both hand dribbler and a quality finisher actually finished better than Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose at the rim last season and among the upper 3rd in PGs. His biggest knock is his play in the half court set.

I see Jrue getting around to about 18, 5 and 8 next season with improved D. Those #s while may not sounding like the elite of the elite (near Felton the first half of last season) but his defense, poise and intangible worth will be what sets him apart from others. It may not be his peak but he could be in contention for an ASG spot (will probably be considered a snub) and should see his improved play translated in his team's success.

naps
09-24-2011, 09:04 PM
Demarcus Cousins. And I also think John Wall will have a phenomenal year and will make it to the allstar game.

Stuckey#3
09-24-2011, 09:28 PM
Demarcus Cousins. And I also think John Wall will have a phenomenal year and will make it to the allstar game.

I already consider Wall and Blake All-Star level players.

justinnum1
09-24-2011, 09:33 PM
John wall

PurpleJesus
09-24-2011, 09:41 PM
was gonna go with Harden, but with Westbrook and Durant on that team, it will be hard for Harden to put up giant numbers...I went with Derozan.

likemystylez
09-24-2011, 09:54 PM
we need to focus on one problem at a time and not get ahead of ourselves. Nobody is going to have a break out season this year if this lock out doesnt end soon.

Stuckey#3
09-24-2011, 10:01 PM
we need to focus on one problem at a time and not get ahead of ourselves. Nobody is going to have a break out season this year if this lock out doesnt end soon.

Did you see the asterik*?

PinnacleFlash
09-24-2011, 10:06 PM
LeBron James should win it if he plays average in the NBA finals.

Swashcuff
09-24-2011, 10:10 PM
LeBron James should win it if he plays average in the NBA finals.

I can't wait for you to get permabanned. I mean seriously what in Gods name does LeBron James and the finals have to do with the topic. That's how he's gonna have a breakout season. Get your agenda out of here.

DJakk
09-24-2011, 10:10 PM
Javale McGee

Gators123
09-24-2011, 10:11 PM
Greg Monroe. After the All-Star break last season he averaged-

14 points
10 rebounds
2 assist
1.6 steals

I expect him to average similar numbers to that for a full season next year.

sunnydayin'zona
09-24-2011, 10:22 PM
I'm a homer, but Marcin Gortat is expected to do great things in Phoenix this year. Since becoming a member of the Suns, he averaged about 13/10. But he just kept getting better as the year went on, especially when he became the starter late in the season.

Hawkeye15
09-24-2011, 10:24 PM
of the ones I can vote for, Jrue. But Kyle Lowry will win MIP, and be the breakout star of next season imo.

Ill21
09-24-2011, 10:30 PM
Not on here but im going with John Wall. I think he will show why he was the number 1 pick.

Stuckey#3
09-24-2011, 10:33 PM
I agree that Lowry is going to tear it up in Houston. He has a lot of scoring options in Martin, Budginger, Lee and Williams. I think he will probably average close to 16/9. He just slipped my mind when I made the poll. Still think Derozan, Jrue and Moose will play at a slightly higher level.

thenetslegend
09-24-2011, 10:33 PM
no votes for teague yet? wow

SteBO
09-24-2011, 10:38 PM
I went with Demarcus Cousins here. I think he's going to be a very good center in this league if he isn't already.

mdm692
09-24-2011, 10:46 PM
Marcin Gortat guaranteed.

Corey
09-24-2011, 10:46 PM
Of the options, Teague, simply because he'll probably get the biggest minute increase.

Production wise, I dont know how much the others will really improve. Derozan had a nice season. Cousins was a 15/10 guy. Steph, Gallo and Gortat aren't going to improve a LOT.

Jrue will hopefully finally get noticed. Batum could improve as well, he has a load of potential. Harden, if he cracks the starting lineup consistently could see a big jump in production as well.

bovice163
09-24-2011, 10:58 PM
Wall, Jrue, Gortat.

Slimsim
09-24-2011, 10:59 PM
jrue and gallo both have all Star potential

heyman321
09-24-2011, 11:09 PM
Gonna have to say Cousins or Derozan. Cousins proved to be a beast at times last year, man he'll be good. Also Derozan should breakout, given how crappy the Raptors are. He should seriously be given the role of #1 option and Bargnani needs to GTFO of the Raptors organization.

mdm692
09-24-2011, 11:12 PM
Gortat will be 18ppg 11rbg type of guy and will become one of the elite defensive center. He averaged 15ppg 9.3Rbg with a weak cast in phoenix. If they make some adjustments at the wing positions expect his numbers to rise

Chacarron
09-24-2011, 11:40 PM
I want Demar to become the next Kobe.

Chill_Will_24
09-25-2011, 12:05 AM
Demarcus Cousins. And I also think John Wall will have a phenomenal year and will make it to the allstar game.

I agree that he will have a phenomenal year but who will he replace in the all star squad? Unless you think that Deron Williams will fall off in which case i can see Wall making it.

LakersIn5
09-25-2011, 01:19 AM
how would we know who will have a breakout year?

thenetslegend
09-25-2011, 01:26 AM
how would we know who will have a breakout year?

obviously this is assuming there is a season. i dont see how the nba could be locked out for a whole season.

LakersMaster24
09-25-2011, 01:31 AM
My friend who is a Raptors fan, is praying for Demar to have a break out season :laugh: quiet honestly, I think he will.

THE GIPPER
09-25-2011, 01:54 AM
I voted Jrue.

If DeRozen ever learns how to shoot at all, he'll be a great player. I'm not sure he will though...and not sure he'll break out any more than he did last year.

He already has a nice mid range jumper, but I will agree his 3 ball needs a lot of work.

THE MTL
09-25-2011, 02:03 AM
Actually thats a pretty HORRIBLE list for breakout candidates. Almost all of those players have significant minute-sharing to do with teammates.

S.Curry- iono how he is supposed to do more than his usual 19ppg 6apg when he has to share with Monta Ellis and an ever improving Dorell Wright

I chose Jrue Holiday cause he will get ample minutes in Philly, however he got ample minutes last year too and didnt do 'that' much.

Stuckey#3
09-25-2011, 02:11 AM
Actually thats a pretty HORRIBLE list for breakout candidates. Almost all of those players have significant minute-sharing to do with teammates.

S.Curry- iono how he is supposed to do more than his usual 19ppg 6apg when he has to share with Monta Ellis and an ever improving Dorell Wright

I chose Jrue Holiday cause he will get ample minutes in Philly, however he got ample minutes last year too and didnt do 'that' much.

Please share your list of ten better candidates... and while your at it explain how Jrue didn't do 'that' much. 7 out of 10 of these guys were listed unanimously on other websites (Bleacher Report, ESPN, etc.)

Hawkeye15
09-25-2011, 02:18 AM
I agree that Lowry is going to tear it up in Houston. He has a lot of scoring options in Martin, Budginger, Lee and Williams. I think he will probably average close to 16/9. He just slipped my mind when I made the poll. Still think Derozan, Jrue and Moose will play at a slightly higher level.

Lowry is, and will be, one of the best defenders at PG in the league as well. I seriously think he is already one of the top 2-3 defenders at the position.

Swashcuff
09-25-2011, 02:32 AM
Lowry is, and will be, one of the best defenders at PG in the league as well. I seriously think he is already one of the top 2-3 defenders at the position.

Kevin Pelton agrees


First Team - Kyle Lowry, Houston
A long-time recipient of honorable mention accolades, Lowry took a leap forward this year by playing his best defensive basketball as a starter. Lowry's strength and low center of gravity allow him to play much bigger than his height (just 6'0"). Meanwhile, Lowry is also quick for the position and racks up steals. The Rockets struggled defensively this season, but they were far better with Lowry on the floor, allowing 6.3 fewer points per 100 possessions.

http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1639

Stuckey#3
09-25-2011, 02:49 AM
Lowry is, and will be, one of the best defenders at PG in the league as well. I seriously think he is already one of the top 2-3 defenders at the position.

I'll keep my eye on him. I know there was a lot of hype behind him towards the end of last year...

Also nice avatar. "Gangs of NY" is one of the best films from the past decade IMO. There will be blood was pretty sick too.

ragee
09-25-2011, 03:29 AM
I voted for Cousins. He has all the tools to be a successful center. All that is left is for someone to sucker punch him to maturity...

THE GIPPER
09-25-2011, 12:05 PM
This clip shows a bit of derozans mid range game.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJjY27nIaEU


And Ty Lawson should be on this list too.

Swashcuff
09-25-2011, 12:20 PM
This clip shows a bit of derozans mid range game.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJjY27nIaEU


And Ty Lawson should be on this list too.

A little helper

16-23 Feet [League average for SGs playing 25+ mins 39.8%]

Player M A FG%
DeMar DeRozan 2.0 5.1 40.0
Kobe Bryant 2.2 5.9 38.0
Monta Ellis 2.5 6.6 38.0
Dwyane Wade 1.4 3.7 37.0
Manu Ginobili 0.6 1.8 36.0
Kevin Martin 1.4 4.0 34.0

10-15 Feet [League average for SGs playing 25+ mins 41.6%]

Player M A FG%
Kobe Bryant 1.6 3.2 51.5
DeMar DeRozan 0.9 2.0 46.6
Manu Ginobili 0.4 0.8 44.4
Kevin Martin 0.6 1.4 40.0
Dwyane Wade 0.7 1.7 38.5
Monta Ellis 0.5 1.4 31.6

As compared to some of the more elite SGs (not necessarily the best shooters) DeRozan's mid-range game is decent IMO. He's better than that of league average. It's his finishing at the rim that could use some work. In that regard he's below league average.

topdog
09-25-2011, 12:42 PM
I'm hoping a guy who's not on your list, Wes Johnson, breaks out. Playing along and not being a homer, I'd say Gortat. I think a couple of those guys made large enough strides last year that their progress this year won't appear quite so impactful.

gwrighter
09-25-2011, 12:44 PM
Derozan is poised to have a breakout year on a team that lacks a true #1 scoring option. The last thing the Raptors need is another inefficient scorer like Bargs. If Derozan can elevate his point total while still maintaining efficiency then i'l truly consider him to have a breakout year.

gwrighter
09-25-2011, 12:57 PM
As compared to some of the more elite SGs (not necessarily the best shooters) DeRozan's mid-range game is decent IMO. He's better than that of league average. It's his finishing at the rim that could use some work. In that regard he's below league average.

what I like about his game is that he is always under control. He progressed nicely last season. Here are his pre all-star & post all-star averages.


FG% 3P% FT% MP PTS TRB AST
.468 .071 .781 34.4 15.9 3.7 1.8
.465 .125 .880 35.6 19.9 4.1 1.8

naps
09-25-2011, 12:58 PM
I already consider Wall and Blake All-Star level players.

considering and actually making it to the game are two different things. Blake already made it last year and Wall has yet to. John Wall might lead the league in assists next season.

Swashcuff
09-25-2011, 01:04 PM
Derozan is poised to have a breakout year on a team that lacks a true #1 scoring option. The last thing the Raptors need is another inefficient scorer like Bargs. If Derozan can elevate his point total while still maintaining efficiency then i'l truly consider him to have a breakout year.

Bargs was more efficient than DeRozan last year despite the fact that is was a down year for him in that department. They were both below average at their position, Bargs more so than DeRozan.

naps
09-25-2011, 01:07 PM
...

naps
09-25-2011, 01:09 PM
LeBron James should win it if he plays average in the NBA finals.

You are asking for a permaban, aren't you mr. troll?

Stack_NJNets
09-25-2011, 02:56 PM
Yeah isn't Teague taking the starting role at PG now? No love for him here.. he was puttin up good numbers by the end of the season.

KnicksorBust
09-25-2011, 03:16 PM
I think Cousins has the highest upside of anyone on the list and some of those guys like Curry-Derozan have already "broken out."

Zetterberg40
09-25-2011, 03:36 PM
I like Derozan he has a chance to be the Raptors 1 number one option whenever the nba resumes play I also like Harden but he is behind both Westbrook and Durant so wont get as many opportunities

SeoulBeatz
09-25-2011, 04:12 PM
It's EASILY Jrue Holiday :)

SeoulBeatz
09-25-2011, 04:14 PM
I think Harden could actually be a better player than Derozan in the end, but playing with Russ and Durant will make it impossible to ever reach his potential. With some freedom Harden could do some serious damage.


And yes, Ty Lawson should absolutely be on the list.

juno10
09-25-2011, 04:23 PM
I think Harden could actually be a better player than Derozan in the end, but playing with Russ and Durant will make it impossible to ever reach his potential. With some freedom Harden could do some serious damage.


And yes, Ty Lawson should absolutely be on the list.

i think harden is already better than derozan.

SeoulBeatz
09-25-2011, 04:28 PM
im a fan of jrue, but how much better could he possibly get? not enough to be considered a "breakout season"

I'm obv a homer but I see getting a much bigger role than last year. He had to share time bringing the ball up with Iguodala and was never given the ball during the clutch. Much of this had to do with Doug Collin's thinking Jrue was too young to handle the responsibilities but Jrue showed in last years playoffs that he's ready to step up.

In 14 games that Iguodala was out last season the Sixers went 8-6 and Jrue Holiday averaged 19.0 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 8.7 apg, and 2.1 spg on 52% FG and %403pt.

If you just watch the kid play it looks like he's been in the league for 10 years because he always plays at his own pace. He's also one of the biggest PG's in the league at 6'4, I just feel like he has all the tools to succeed and he JUST turned 21.

SeoulBeatz
09-25-2011, 04:28 PM
i think harden is already better than derozan.

I do too, I just think Harden will be a little better in the future, but Derozan obviously is a different player with his own arsenal/potential.

VCaintdead17
09-25-2011, 04:38 PM
Jrue is on the brink of being an absolute monster.

I think Gallo will be exceptional as well this season.

Corey
09-25-2011, 04:52 PM
Why isn't anyone factoring in Teague's role increase? He's going to be going from 14MPG to a much higher number than that.

All of the other players listed are either starters already, have already broken out (Derozan, Curry), or wont get many more minutes than they did last year. Teague will likely see the largest minute increase out of anyone listed.

Chronz
09-25-2011, 05:00 PM
Why isn't anyone factoring in Teague's role increase? He's going to be going from 14MPG to a much higher number than that.

All of the other players listed are either starters already, have already broken out (Derozan, Curry), or wont get many more minutes than they did last year. Teague will likely see the largest minute increase out of anyone listed.
Is Hinrich a FA? In either event, will those extra minutes be enough? Its not a true breakout if all your doing is playing more. Its about what you do in those minutes.

Chronz
09-25-2011, 05:03 PM
I went with DeMar as well. If he is the Raps #1 option next year he will dominate the scoring load. I was going to go with the homer pick in Monroe... but I think Moose needs 2-3 years before he becomes top five at his position.
I can only understand this pick because Demar becoming even an average player would mark a significant improvement but hes developed pretty slowly if your expecting a star in the making. Here's hoping...

Chronz
09-25-2011, 05:14 PM
I think Harden could actually be a better player than Derozan in the end, but playing with Russ and Durant will make it impossible to ever reach his potential. With some freedom Harden could do some serious damage.


And yes, Ty Lawson should absolutely be on the list.
Your excuses don't prevent Harden from BEING the better player.

Lawson is sharing time with Dre, what do you make of that?


Harden at best will be a third option...thus I don't see him breaking out big time. He's a great player, but Durant and Russy are still gonna steal most of the points. That's why I like Jrue...I think he can be the #1 perimeter option. DeRozan even is a much better pick here, even though he scored 17+ points a game last year and it's gonna be hard to "break out" after doing that. He'll have to get well into the 20s, and I don't see that yet.
That's a very simplistic viewpoint, Derozen didn't break out, your allowing basic stats to intefer with your evaluation. Hes got loads of potential and plenty of room to grow, I think you overrate how pedestrian he was last year.

Harden could break out within his role as well, in fact I was banking on it happening last year. Lets say he becomes as good as we envision, with Ibaka/KD/WB all doing the same then the Thunder would have become a power house. When your on a stacked team, you measure the individuals improvement by his teams level of play. With Harden improving as a defender its getting harder to keep him off the floor, and on a team with Perk/Ibaka playing limited roles in the offense the opportunities are there for him despite playing alongside KD/WB.

ManningToTyree
09-25-2011, 05:54 PM
Cousins has the talent to be a top 5 center right now. If he can focus on basketball he will be considered a star very soon

rapsjaysfan88
09-25-2011, 06:26 PM
im going 2 go with jerryd bayless. he's not on the list but last year as a starter for the final 10 games he put up stats along the lines of 20-6-4. with dwayne casey's defensive mentality I see bayless getting the starting job over calderon in toronto.

JasonJohnHorn
09-25-2011, 06:51 PM
I went with Monroe, but that's wishful thinking on my part a bit. I believe he's capable of it, but I am a Detroit fan so I may be biased. I want to see this kid break out.

Chronz
09-25-2011, 07:55 PM
I voted for Jrue last year, hes already pretty good. he would have to blow up to make it, Speights is my dark horse tho

Evolution23
09-25-2011, 09:26 PM
Gallo or Jrue

SeoulBeatz
09-25-2011, 10:10 PM
I voted for Jrue last year, hes already pretty good. he would have to blow up to make it, Speights is my dark horse tho

Appreciatre the Jrue love, but I'm afraid to say to ENTIRE sixers fanbase has given up on Speights.

He has digressed every year since his rookie year and gotten alarmingly out of shape.

I remember I was extremely high on the kid when he would drop 25+ points off the bench some nights. He never had defesne on his side but he used to have a lights out midrange game and impressive athleticism. Now he's just slow, fat, and he doesnt have confidence in his jumpshot anymore, meaning he is useless.

I expect the Sixers to trade him ASAP for whatever they can get, and that's sad to see.

todu82
09-26-2011, 09:26 AM
Demar Derozan

nycericanguy
09-26-2011, 09:36 AM
I voted for Cousins. He has all the tools to be a successful center. All that is left is for someone to sucker punch him to maturity...

So does Eddy Curry, but Cousins doesnt strike me as a guy that will put in the necessary work.

I went with DeRozan simply because he will be the #1 option now, but Jrue, Gortat and good choices as well. Maybe even Harden.

Tom Stone
09-26-2011, 09:58 AM
I voted Jrue.

If DeRozen ever learns how to shoot at all, he'll be a great player. I'm not sure he will though...and not sure he'll break out any more than he did last year.

Demar DeRozen has a great mid range shot he's auto-matic...a high FG% guy.....When he starts extending his range he will be deadly.

ombada
09-26-2011, 10:25 AM
I know a lot of people dont have the pacers in mind when making threads like these... but why arent Paul George, Roy Hibbert or Darren Collison one of the options?

Out of the players listed, im going with Cousins.

Swashcuff
09-26-2011, 10:39 AM
I know a lot of people dont have the pacers in mind when making threads like these... but why arent Paul George, Roy Hibbert or Darren Collison one of the options?

Out of the players listed, im going with Cousins.


Paul George is the only Pacers player who should be an option. He has the most upside of any of those players.

Byronicle
09-26-2011, 10:41 AM
if GSW trades Monta Ellis then Steph Curry

Il Mago50
09-26-2011, 10:43 AM
John McDonald of the Toronto Blue Jays

Closely followed by Demarcus Cousins if the man doesn't get kicked off of team flights

Sactown
09-26-2011, 12:09 PM
Every year as a Kings fan I pray it will be Donte Greene and every year he doesn't do ****...

Hawkeye15
09-26-2011, 05:22 PM
I'm hoping a guy who's not on your list, Wes Johnson, breaks out. Playing along and not being a homer, I'd say Gortat. I think a couple of those guys made large enough strides last year that their progress this year won't appear quite so impactful.

I am hoping he follows DeRozan to a tee (although Wes is a better shooter, and not quite the slasher). But a jump to 17-18 a night on good efficiency would be HUGE for us

MJ-BULLS
09-26-2011, 05:27 PM
Out of the players that are listed in the list, I'm going with cousins. he is extremely talented, but, if he can find a way to keep his head on straight he has the chance to be a real productive player. A sleeper pick in my eyes, is, omer asik. I'm sure a lot of you got a chance to see him play in the playoffs, the kid has a chance to be a superb defensive player. He already is, but his development could keep growing. his work ethic is great.