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Goalie31
09-20-2011, 03:53 PM
NBA owners and representatives from the National Basketball Players Association met last week and failed to make significant headway on a new collective bargaining agreement.

The good news is that both sides are still talking. The bad news is that they seem to be at a tough impasse on the question of a hard salary cap. The owners are still pushing for it and the players are uniformly against it.

There is some optimism among both players and owners that an agreement can be reached soon. However, there are several league sources -- among both ownership and the players -- who continue to maintain that if a deal isn't reached soon, there's a good possibility that the entire season could be lost.

If the lockout takes away the entire season, it will undoubtedly have a number of devastating ramifications. One that I'm asked about on a daily basis is: What happens to the 2012 NBA draft if there is no season? Can there still be a draft? Who would get the No. 1 pick?

There are no clear answers to that question. League spokesman Tim Frank told ESPN.com that the 2012 NBA draft is "not something that is even a focus right now. All efforts are being put towards reaching a deal."

That's the public, on-the-record response. But privately, league sources say it's accurate. As of right now, the league does not have a 2012 NBA draft contingency plan in place should the NBA season be canceled.

To make matters even more complicated, any change in the date, current draft system or order would have to be negotiated with the union. We all know how well that's going. One league source said that if things progress to the point that the season is canceled, there's a chance the draft could be lost, too.

Why would the NBA have to cancel the draft?

Currently the league has very strict protocols in place banning NBA personnel from talking to or interacting with players. That protocol affects the draft as well. While NBA scouts and personnel always have been banned from speaking with college players until they officially enter the draft, the league has taken more stringent measures to prevent contact. As long as the lockout is in force, NBA scouts are banned from attending college practices this year -- they can only go to games. And it could get worse.

"I can't really see a scenario where the league would let us do stuff like the pre-draft camp, individual workouts or interviews if the lockout is still under way," one prominent GM told ESPN Insider. "I think the ban of contacting NBA players would probably spread to future NBA players as well. Unless we worked something out with the union specifically, it will be a giant mess."

Of course, contact isn't the only issue. Even if the league were to allow GMs and scouts to contact college players, conduct workouts, etc., a number of GMs are chewing on an equally thorny problem -- if there is no season, how do you determine the draft order?

While the league has yet to take up this issue, it hasn't stopped GMs and prominent agents from chiming in with their solutions to the problem. Their solutions range from the status quo to a radical restructuring of the draft.

Here are three scenarios that could happen if the league loses the season, but decides to go ahead with the draft.

1. Just redo the lottery

Several GMs say the easiest and fairest thing to do is to just redo the 2012 lottery with the same odds that decided the 2011 lottery.

"The draft is there for the worst teams to improve," another GM said. "The teams that were in the lottery in 2011 are still the worst teams in the league. It makes sense that they'd have the best odds of landing the best players in the draft."

But not everyone agrees.

"That would be totally unfair to a number of teams," a GM from a Western Conference team counters. "Most of the worst teams in the league would improve with the players they collected in the 2011 draft. Also, with a whole season lost, a number of teams will be left with a pretty depleted roster. Why should teams be rewarded twice for mediocrity? Most of the teams that are in the lottery are the ones that are also going to be responsible for us losing the season. The most poorly run franchises are the ones that need the hard cap. They're the same ones that need revenue sharing. Should we just give them extra draft picks, too?"

2. Have a league-wide lottery

Other GMs (most notably from traditional non-lottery teams) have another idea. Why doesn't the NBA just throw 30 pingpong balls into the hopper -- one for every team? Every team would have a 1-in-30 shot of winning the lottery.

"It's simple. It's fair and no one team is given an advantage because of the lockout. I also think it would make for great TV and drama for the league," another GM said.

A few agents I spoke with also love the idea.

"I always feel like bad teams win the lottery, but good players lose it," one prominent agent said. "Why do the best players in college basketball have to go to the most messed-up franchises where they spend years squandering their careers? I've never had an elite client who really wants to play for the Minnesota Timberwolves or Memphis Grizzlies. They want to win, and they want to be with a quality team."

As you can imagine, GMs of current lottery teams don't love that idea.

"How is it fair that teams like the Lakers or Mavericks or Heat have an equal shot of winning the lottery?" another GM said. "You're saying LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh need the No. 1 pick the same way a depleted team like the Cleveland Cavaliers do? I don't think so."

3. Meet halfway

Among the more level-headed GMs, a different sort of mantra emerges.

"I don't think either system is totally fair. I'm not sure any system will make everyone happy. But I think if the league took a five-year average for each team and then seeded them that way, you'd do the most good. Sure, [Cavaliers owner] Dan Gilbert would scream, but I think most GMs would feel it's fair. So would the fans."

Here's the idea: The league would aggregate team records for the past five years and then give teams draft picks based off those aggregate records. The team with the worst record in the past five years would draft first. The team with the best would draft last.

No, it doesn't address every need. Up-and-coming teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder would draft too high, and recently down-on-their-luck franchises like the Pistons would draft too low.

But at least it would be some attempt at parity.

Regardless of the solution, every GM will be watching this year's college basketball season closely.

"With no NBA season to conduct and follow, all of us will be turning our energy to scouting for new players," one GM said. "The players in this year's draft will be under the most scrutiny of any players ever if we lose the season."

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/blog/_/name/nba_draft/id/6995631/nba-draft-how-lockout-affects-2012-draft-lottery

Hellcrooner
09-20-2011, 03:59 PM
equal odds plain and square.

Fresno
09-20-2011, 04:10 PM
I think the article is un-needed. At this point, there is no chance either side lets the season be lost completely.

CostanzaNumba0
09-20-2011, 04:35 PM
I like the aggregate 5 year plan, it would help the knicks a ton

Shmontaine
09-20-2011, 04:46 PM
I think the article is un-needed. At this point, there is no chance either side lets the season be lost completely.

??? it already isn't going to start on time, so i think there's 'some chance' the whole season is lost...

smith&wesson
09-20-2011, 04:52 PM
all the teams that didnt make the playoffs should have 15 balls in the lottery. the teams seeded 5-8 would get 7 balls in the lottery and the teams that were seaded 1-4 get 3 balls in the lottery.

to me this is fair.

Slimsim
09-20-2011, 05:05 PM
imagine if the heats would win the lottery Dan gilbert would kill someone

Shmontaine
09-20-2011, 05:14 PM
The following is the 5-year aggregate rankings... I think this is probably the best way.. it screws the cavs and suns hard, which i'm ok with...



Team Win Loss
Minnesota Timberwolves 110 300
Sacramento Kings 137 273
Los Angeles Clippers 143 267
New Jersey Nets 145 265
Washington Wizards 152 258
Memphis Grizzlies 154 256
New York Knicks 159 251
Milwaukee Bucks 169 241
Indiana Pacers 176 234
Charlotte Bobcats 178 232
Oklahoma City Thunder 179 231
Golden State Warriors 181 229
Toronto Raptors 183 227
Philadelphia 76ers 184 226
Miami Heat 207 203
Detroit Pistons 208 202
Atlanta Hawks 211 199
Portland Trail Blazers 225 185
Chicago Bulls 226 184
New Orleans Hornets 227 183
Cleveland Cavs 241 169
Houston Rockets 245 165
Utah Jazz 245 165
Denver Nuggets 252 158
Phoenix Suns 256 154
Boston Celtics 258 152
Orlando Magic 262 148
Los Angeles Lakers 278 132
San Antonio Spurs 279 131
Dallas Mavericks 280 130

:eyebrow:

Fresno
09-20-2011, 05:16 PM
??? it already isn't going to start on time, so i think there's 'some chance' the whole season is lost...

There is no chance the whole season is lost. Take a look at the latest reports on their meetings, they are much closer than you're mistakenly thinking they are.

An entire season isnt going to be lost at this rate. 1/2 of a season possibly, but an entire season being lost would cost around $1 Billion.

Yes, people have learned from what happened with the NHL. Thats why both sides have offered concessions.

smith&wesson
09-20-2011, 05:16 PM
imagine if the heats would win the lottery Dan gilbert would kill someone

the guys out of his mind man lol ... he just got two really really good players in the draft why would he still be bitter? most teams suffer for years when they lose theyre franchise player. in this case the cavs are already rebuilding with two players that can be stars in the future. the guy should be greatfull. i know if the raps got those two players in the draft i would be a really happy fan.

Cal827
09-20-2011, 05:18 PM
imagine if the heats would win the lottery Dan gilbert would kill someone

:laugh2: this, as well as half of the people who hate this team on PSD.

In the most fair world, it would be number 2 with the serpentine format (as in the 1st pick would also get 60, 2nd and 59th and so on), but if Gilbert is complaining about a deal that includes revenue sharing because it still gives the players too much, then there's no way in hell that he's going to agree to a lotto that could put them at 30th overall.

The NHL idea of a lotto might work, gives every team a chance, BUT the top teams will likely not even sniff the top 5.

WITZ
09-20-2011, 05:19 PM
imagine if the heats would win the lottery Dan gilbert would kill someone

I doubt it ,since the cavs have the option to the swap picks.

NYman15
09-20-2011, 05:22 PM
The following is the 5-year aggregate rankings... I think this is probably the best way.. it screws the cavs and suns hard, which i'm ok with...



:eyebrow:

Well, as a Knicks fan I'd love that. The Knicks are finally good and out of the lottery. It would definitely be a great gift to the Knicks and knick fans. Can't imagine how nuts NY would be if they got the top pick. Wow.

The only question is would they just give each team one 1st round pick or would they go by what each team is supposed to have. For example, the Knicks traded their 2012 1st round pick to Houston so would Houston get their pick or would the NBA just give each team 1 pick and just put it in a lottery?

Cal827
09-20-2011, 05:29 PM
The following is the 5-year aggregate rankings... I think this is probably the best way.. it screws the cavs and suns hard, which i'm ok with...



:eyebrow:

Clippers would absolutely love that. They would end up with the 1st and 3rd overall picks in the 2012 draft (since they own the T'wolves). Two top picks in a loaded draft + Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin, Eric Bledsoe, Deandre Jordan= Future multiple champions lol :D... And then Gilbert would whine about a team getting two picks in the top 5, quickly forgetting what Stern did for him the year before :D

It makes sense, but some teams might whine that it's too long in the past (since a lot of teams are able to rebuild or tear a team down in 2 or 3 years). I also didn't notice that Dallas was best overall in the past 5 years. Always thought it was LA.

spreadeagle
09-20-2011, 05:35 PM
Im almost certain the Raptors will have a top 3 pic in this draft "which will be stacked" if a season was played because our rookie Jonas wont be coming over this yr and beyond him its Derozen and Ed Davis carrying the load 2 very young guys..so im almost POSITIVE that somehow we will get effed out of this spot and end up at 14 or something cause something ALWAYS screws us...Jonas V Derozen Davis..plus a Harrison Barnes or Austin Rivers..will be so sick,Dont screw me here Stern!!!

GodsSon
09-20-2011, 05:44 PM
equal odds plain and square.

That would be terrible.

The fairest thing to do would be to repeat the same odds as last season. Does anybody really think that the Cavs, Wolves and Raptors would improve THAT much as to propel them out of the bottom 5?

Bishnoff
09-20-2011, 09:57 PM
The following is the 5-year aggregate rankings... I think this is probably the best way.. it screws the cavs and suns hard, which i'm ok with...



:eyebrow:

Thanks, because the Suns have so much to look forward to going forward. We'll be lucky to win 35 games next season, 20 if we trade Nash (which we should).

thenetslegend
09-21-2011, 02:29 AM
hmmm...nets moving to brooklyn, stern might give them a reward lol

todu82
09-21-2011, 09:06 AM
I know what the NHL did in the 2005 draft after they lost a season was weight the previous 3 seasons and conducted a lottery where each team had a chance to get the #1 pick. I think the NBA will do this as well.

justinnum1
09-21-2011, 09:11 AM
I like the aggregate 5 year plan, it would help the knicks a ton

That would help the heat too.

Sly Guy
09-21-2011, 09:25 AM
all the teams that didnt make the playoffs should have 15 balls in the lottery. the teams seeded 5-8 would get 7 balls in the lottery and the teams that were seaded 1-4 get 3 balls in the lottery.

to me this is fair.

agreed. There still should be a greater chance for those teams struggling. Include everyone in a shot at the #1, but it shouldn't be that a team like OKC has an equal shot at the #1 as the Kings.

Mishmin
09-21-2011, 09:26 AM
Wouldn't pan well for my celts.

However, I don't think it'll happen because I believe there will be some form of a season this year.

theheatles
09-23-2011, 02:47 PM
i like the last 5 yr average the best and i think it's the fairest, this way the only terrible team that gets the shaft are the cavs and it's deserved, gilbert got his good karma by getting 2 top 4 picks for lebron leaving him, but now it's time for him to get smacked in the face with his bad karma for all the **** he spewed