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View Full Version : Papelbon becomes first closer with 30+ saves in first 6 seasons



Super.
09-17-2011, 11:05 AM
As of his save last night.

What's your opinions on his achievement?

AI
09-17-2011, 11:24 AM
He's been scary good this year, looks like he's back.

JermanJaysFan
09-17-2011, 11:34 AM
He certainly has bounced back. That record indicates that he has been a good closer on a good team for a while, but it doesn't blow me away or anything. It feels like more of a technicality. But still, congrats to him.

As a side note, I had no idea clue that he was going to be 31 soon. I thought of him as still young. Time flies.

DodgersFanFor23
09-17-2011, 01:01 PM
Growing old sucks

Bos_Sports4Life
09-17-2011, 01:26 PM
Hes deff bounced back...With that said, I wouldn't even think about giving him 4 years, and i'd be weary giving him 3

Reversed86Curse
09-17-2011, 01:44 PM
congrats to him, he should have more saves though this year

Crucis
09-17-2011, 02:11 PM
I don't get impressed by the saves stat. It's entirely too bogus. Paps has been great this year, but the last 2-3 seasons he hasn't been all that great and yet still had 30+ save seasons. Blah. I'm not sure what the good stats are for a closer, but I can say that the eye test is telling that he's MUCH better this year than in recent years and that doesn't show up in the saves stat.

Perhaps the better stat is not how many saves one has, but how few save opportunities one has blown, since you can stink, but still manage to hold on by a thread and save the game, whereas if you blow the save, you have failed to do your job, plain and simple. Maybe a stat where you look at the blown save percentage (BS%) .... BS divided by save opportunities. That might be a better true measure of how good the closer is performing.

CHRISDODGERS
09-17-2011, 02:29 PM
saves are stupid. just means he's consistent... which is good I guess lol

Towelie
09-17-2011, 02:43 PM
He's been awesome this year. I just wonder what kind of contract he's gonna want.

VenezuelanMet
09-17-2011, 02:44 PM
Lol saves.

DodgerBlue8188
09-17-2011, 02:52 PM
Saves might not be the best stat to just a pitcher. But I think it's one of those stats that can be misleading by just looking at a single year. But if you see 30+ saves or 40+ saves for numerous seasons back to back it usually means dominance.

I think saves rely a lot on your team. If you play on a good offensive team you probably won't get as many saves while the same can be true if you have a few pitchers that pitch complete games.

"Ace"ves
09-17-2011, 03:04 PM
Papelbon is a pretty solid closer... its hard for me to think about sometimes cause Rivera has been the greatest... but there are some really talented closers out there.

Papelbon definitely comes to mind.... before 2010, I would've said Nathan is one of the most dominant in the league.

Crucis
09-17-2011, 03:13 PM
Saves might not be the best stat to just a pitcher. But I think it's one of those stats that can be misleading by just looking at a single year. But if you see 30+ saves or 40+ saves for numerous seasons back to back it usually means dominance.

I think saves rely a lot on your team. If you play on a good offensive team you probably won't get as many saves while the same can be true if you have a few pitchers that pitch complete games.

I wouldn't call 30 saves good if you blow 10 saves. This is why I'd say that perhaps a "blown save percentage" stat might be a better indicator of exactly how good the closer has been. If you were to look at Papelbon's last 2-3 seasons before the current one, yes he had 30+ saves in them, but he wasn't all that great either. But he's been great this year. So I guess that I want to know how few you blow, not how many you don't.

Mr Haha
09-17-2011, 03:50 PM
Now if he could only stop making the constipation face before he throws the ball...

Mr Haha
09-17-2011, 03:52 PM
Lol saves.

The objective of baseball is to win games, right? Or have team wins become an overrated stat now, too? You know what, I'm not even going to watch the sport anymore. It's overrated. The whole damn thing.

Am I cool yet?

Crucis
09-17-2011, 04:06 PM
The objective of baseball is to win games, right? Or have team wins become an overrated stat now, too? You know what, I'm not even going to watch the sport anymore. It's overrated. The whole damn thing.

Am I cool yet?

Of course team wins matter. But the wins stat for a pitcher is dumb. Ditto for the saves stat, though I'd say for different reasons.

As a closer, you're generally expected to get a save, since that's the usual outcome. What's more important is knowing how often you fail to do the expected, i.e. how often do you BLOW a save. And since saves and blown saves are counting stats, it'd be to know the rate at which a closer blows saves, i.e. a blown saves percentage. That is what percentage does a closer's blown saves represent out of his total save chances. If you have 10 blown saves out of 40 chances, you have a BS% of 25%, which I'd say isn't very good.

VenezuelanMet
09-17-2011, 04:10 PM
I don't claim to be cool, and for what it's worth I'm having the same reaction with Mariano's record. Though Mariano is actually awesome and a god and all that, but due to totally different reasons than the save.

-Lavigne43-
09-17-2011, 04:12 PM
I like shutdowns and meltdowns for relievers, it's a pretty cool stat.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0

Paps has only 2 meltdowns this year, neither of which cost the Red Sox a win. Only Greg Holland, who I have never heard of until now, has less.

Jeffy25
09-17-2011, 04:31 PM
Pap is a top 5 closer in the MLB.

Boston fans aren't aware of how good he is for some reason though.

But the save statistic itself is such an over-rated statistic.

He is having a career season btw, his K/BB rate is ridiculous.

But being on a good team and being allowed to close all the close one's, anyone is going to reach 30 saves.

If Jason Motte had been given the same opportunity with the Red Sox over the last six years, he probably would have 30 saves each year as well. But Pap is a solid closer, can be worth 3 wins by himself.

Jeffy25
09-17-2011, 04:34 PM
I like shutdowns and meltdowns for relievers, it's a pretty cool stat.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0

Paps has only 2 meltdowns this year, neither of which cost the Red Sox a win. Only Greg Holland, who I have never heard of until now, has less.

I love that stat :)

way better than the save statistic and blown saves.

NYYrdbest
09-17-2011, 04:54 PM
[Quote]Perhaps the better stat is not how many saves one has, but how few save opportunities one has blown, since you can stink, but still manage to hold on by a thread and save the game, whereas if you blow the save, you have failed to do your job, plain and simple. Maybe a stat where you look at the blown save percentage (BS%) .... BS divided by save opportunities. That might be a better true measure of how good the closer is performing. [unquote]
-----------------------------------------------------------

Yes, blown saves are a better way to evaluate closers performance but it will be a negative statistic. For instance if a hitter is evaluated for how many times he fails we will concur that it is a pitchers game. Most hitters fail over 700 rather than hitting 300.

BTW, In 2010 Papelbon had a "so-so" year but make no mistake about it, he is one of the best ever and forget about stats. Think of this, In spite of his record Hoffman is not even one of the best top 5 closers. That takes me back to your original rationale, saves stats themselves are deceiving.

Jeffy25
09-17-2011, 04:55 PM
Perhaps the better stat is not how many saves one has, but how few save opportunities one has blown, since you can stink, but still manage to hold on by a thread and save the game, whereas if you blow the save, you have failed to do your job, plain and simple. Maybe a stat where you look at the blown save percentage (BS%) .... BS divided by save opportunities. That might be a better true measure of how good the closer is performing. [unquote]
-----------------------------------------------------------

Yes, blown saves are a better way to evaluate closers performance but it will be a negative statistic. For instance if a hitter is evaluated for how many times he fails we will concur that it is a pitchers game. Most hitters fail over 700 rather than hitting 300.

BTW, In 2010 Papelbon had a "so-so" year but make no mistake about it, he is one of the best ever and forget about stats. Think of this, In spite of his record Hoffman is not even one of the best top 5 closers. That takes me back to your original rationale, saves stats themselves are deceiving.

How was Hoffman not a top five closer?

Mr Haha
09-17-2011, 04:58 PM
I'm not the biggest Paps fan (I can't stand that look on his face. It's false bravado, everything a true great like Mariano stands against.) That said, I do respect this streak of his. For the modern sports fan, consistency is highly undervalued. He has managed to stay healthy and somewhere near the top of the pack for a long time now, and there are a lot of players who don't put in the work to make that happen--hard offseason work is my favorite unmeasurable trait of great ballplayers.

Crucis
09-17-2011, 05:04 PM
How was Hoffman not a top five closer?

Show me the blown save percentage for the top 10 or 20 supposedly best closers and let's see. I'm not going to determine it by a bad stat.

Crucis
09-17-2011, 05:07 PM
I'm not the biggest Paps fan (I can't stand that look on his face. It's false bravado, everything a true great like Mariano stands against.) That said, I do respect this streak of his. For the modern sports fan, consistency is highly undervalued. He has managed to stay healthy and somewhere near the top of the pack for a long time now, and there are a lot of players who don't put in the work to make that happen--hard offseason work is my favorite unmeasurable trait of great ballplayers.

But Paps hasn't been consistent. If you look at his bogus save stat, sure, you think that he's been consistent. But then ask Sox fans if he's been all that good the past 2-3 years, not counting this year, and you'll get a different story.

This season, he's been great because he's blown very few saves ... something that he couldn't say the previous 2-3 seasons, when he's actually been inconsistent.

Jeffy25
09-17-2011, 05:08 PM
I don't know nor do I care at all about blown saves.

A guy can get a blown save if he comes in in the 7th inning in a 6-5 game with the bases loaded and nobody out, and give up a sac fly. That's a blown save, and somehow we think that can fairly evaluate how good a pitcher is?


The save stat itself, while had good intentions in the last 60's, is incredibly flawed and rather awful.

Hoffman was easily a top 5 closer both all time, and during the majority of his career each season. Plenty of statistics support that.

Mr Haha
09-17-2011, 05:11 PM
But Paps hasn't been consistent. If you look at his bogus save stat, sure, you think that he's been consistent. But then ask Sox fans if he's been all that good the past 2-3 years, not counting this year, and you'll get a different story.

This season, he's been great because he's blown very few saves ... something that he couldn't say the previous 2-3 seasons, when he's actually been inconsistent.

What I'm saying is that he's been able to maintain his position as the closer on an elite team with a demanding fanbase and a good manager for six years. Most closers fizzle out before then. It's a feat.

Crucis
09-17-2011, 05:21 PM
I love that stat :)

way better than the save statistic and blown saves.

They sound good in theory and name, but like too many sabrestats, they're too obtuse. Why the heck can't they be based on thing something as clear cut and visible like runs allows, etc., rather than yet another obtuse sabrestat?

Crucis
09-17-2011, 05:23 PM
What I'm saying is that he's been able to maintain his position as the closer on an elite team with a demanding fanbase and a good manager for six years. Most closers fizzle out before then. It's a feat.

Haha, there were plenty of Sox fans who were ready to get rid of Paps over the past couple years because he'd gotten so inconsistent.

Thankfully, Paps and the pitching coach fixed and tweaked some things and he seems to be back to his 2006-2007 dominant form. And he's become good enough that Sox fans now are thinking in terms of hoping that the Sox keep him, rather than letting walk.


EDIT: Oh, and I do agree that, in spite of his inconsistency at times, it is a feat to avoid the fizzle factor. ;)

Jeffy25
09-17-2011, 05:24 PM
They sound good in theory and name, but like too many sabrestats, they're too obtuse. Why the heck can't they be based on thing something as clear cut and visible like runs allows, etc., rather than yet another obtuse sabrestat?

It's just good practice to understand these additional statistics.

Runs allowed can be flawed, depending what player you are talking about and how much potential control they even have over the run scoring.

It's good to have as much information as possible.

I like the melt-down statistics, but they are by no means concrete.

Crucis
09-17-2011, 05:33 PM
Pap is a top 5 closer in the MLB.

Boston fans aren't aware of how good he is for some reason though.

But the save statistic itself is such an over-rated statistic.

He is having a career season btw, his K/BB rate is ridiculous.

But being on a good team and being allowed to close all the close one's, anyone is going to reach 30 saves.

If Jason Motte had been given the same opportunity with the Red Sox over the last six years, he probably would have 30 saves each year as well. But Pap is a solid closer, can be worth 3 wins by himself.

Actually, I'd say that Boston fans do know that THIS YEAR, Paps has been awesome. He has blown so few saves that no one's complaining. And fans have reached the point of wanting the Sox to re-sign him, rather than letting him walk.

Also, I agree that any half-decent closer should reach 30 saves on a half decent team. Frankly, I don't get that impressed by the saves stat or saves record. I tend to be a person who thinks that closers are important, but that the saves stat really doesn't tell you how good they are. I'm sure that the sabre people can develop a stat that can separate the men from the boys where closers are concerned. But I don't think that it has to be quite that complex. Over the course of a season, if a closer is blowing too many saves, particularly the easier 2 or 3 run saves, you know he's not doing that well. Paps has had some inconsistent years in the previous 2-3 seasons. Sure, he's gotten to 30+ saves, but as you point out, any half decent closer on a good team should be able to do that with enough opportunities. Paps' problem has been that he'd blow too many saves that he shouldn't in those years. This year, he isn't. This year, he's been immense. Far fewer heart attack saves. More saves of the "come in and blow'em away" variety.

Crucis
09-17-2011, 05:37 PM
It's just good practice to understand these additional statistics.

Runs allowed can be flawed, depending what player you are talking about and how much potential control they even have over the run scoring.

It's good to have as much information as possible.

I like the melt-down statistics, but they are by no means concrete.



Hey, I'll admit that there's a big difference in a save situation where you bring the closer into a game with a 2-3 run lead to start the 9th inning, and one where you bring him in with no outs and the bases loaded and a slim 1-run lead to protect. Still, I wouldn't call giving up a single run in the latter situation a "blow up". OTOH, I could call giving up 2 runs with a 3 run lead and barely getting the W and the save pretty darned close to a "blowup".

Toxeryll
09-17-2011, 05:40 PM
uggh, i hate this guy. takes forever to pitch

papipapsmanny
09-17-2011, 07:06 PM
Now obviously you can' compare him to rivera because of Rivera's longevity but....

Career ERAs, FIP, xFIP (I hate xFIP) are identical to Riveras, and has averaged more WAR per season than Rivera (but again Rivera has pitched much longer)

Basically if Papelbon does what he has been doing (Mainly this year and 06-08) for the next 10 years (not probable) then he could be in contention for best closer of all time. He is off to a good start but lets see how he does for the next 4 years let alone 10. Its very clear though when he has good control he is great.

Green_Monster
09-17-2011, 07:37 PM
Not trying to be a *****, but if saves are useless, then why is everyone flipping out over Rivera's 600th?

Jeffy25
09-17-2011, 07:50 PM
Most of the people freaking out about it, are people that think it matters.

And it's still a milestone, it shows the longevity, consistency, and success of his career.

I don't personally care about it, but I understand that other people do.

"Ace"ves
09-17-2011, 08:02 PM
Not trying to be a *****, but if saves are useless, then why is everyone flipping out over Rivera's 600th?

I know right. It's like Cy Young and his 511 wins....

Wins are a terrible stat, who cares that he holds the MLB record with 511 wins

Bos_Sports4Life
09-17-2011, 08:29 PM
Not trying to be a *****, but if saves are useless, then why is everyone flipping out over Rivera's 600th?


Well people will make a bigger deal about riveras record becaus

- More impressive record

- Hes the greatest closer ever

- Not only does he have those 600 saves, hes a 12x allstar, member of what..5 title teams? and over 139.2 innings in the playoffs..he has a 0.71 era

VenezuelanMet
09-17-2011, 08:33 PM
Now obviously you can' compare him to rivera because of Rivera's longevity but....

Career ERAs, FIP, xFIP (I hate xFIP) are identical to Riveras, and has averaged more WAR per season than Rivera (but again Rivera has pitched much longer)

Basically if Papelbon does what he has been doing (Mainly this year and 06-08) for the next 10 years (not probable) then he could be in contention for best closer of all time. He is off to a good start but lets see how he does for the next 4 years let alone 10. Its very clear though when he has good control he is great.

Mariano's legacy is built purely in his 0.71 ERA in the post season, no one really cares about regular season relievers (as they shouldn't) if they don't do nothing on the playoffs as demonstrated by Hoffman.

Green_Monster
09-17-2011, 08:50 PM
I know right. It's like Cy Young and his 511 wins....

Wins are a terrible stat, who cares that he holds the MLB record with 511 wins

Papelbon's record also matters, no one, not even Rivera has done it. So it can't be both ways, either both records suck and saves are a terrible stat, or both records are amazing and saves are a great stat.

mtf
09-17-2011, 09:04 PM
Not trying to be a *****, but if saves are useless, then why is everyone flipping out over Rivera's 600th?

Primarily because he's a Yankee and is one of those Yankees who's never been on any other team. The accomplishments of people like Rivera & Jeter get much more play in the media and by fans than others get.

Jeffy25
09-17-2011, 09:05 PM
Papelbon's record also matters, no one, not even Rivera has done it. So it can't be both ways, either both records suck and saves are a terrible stat, or both records are amazing and saves are a great stat.

You mean start a career with six seasons over 30 saves?

Well of course, Rivera didn't come up as the closer, he had no way of possibly having this 'record'

billybuck
09-17-2011, 09:53 PM
lol, saves. How about holds? I once saw who the all-time holds leader was but it was instantly forgotten. Remember Bobby Thigpen? Better yet, Mark Davis? These guys were the cream of the crop for a time. lol, saves.

nycericanguy
09-17-2011, 10:33 PM
Mariano's legacy is built purely in his 0.71 ERA in the post season, no one really cares about regular season relievers (as they shouldn't) if they don't do nothing on the playoffs as demonstrated by Hoffman.

Agreed, it would be incredible if PAP can maintain his dominance into his 40's like Mo has... but MO is one of the best postseason pitchers of all time as well...and well he doesn't act like a douche :p

Crucis
09-17-2011, 10:45 PM
uggh, i hate this guy. takes forever to pitch

There's no clock in baseball. What's your rush?

1903
09-17-2011, 10:46 PM
There's no clock in baseball. What's your rush?

I do believe there is a time limit that pitchers get between pitches.

es0terik
09-17-2011, 10:47 PM
What's your opinions on his achievement?
That he's going to pass Mariano ;)

Crucis
09-17-2011, 10:48 PM
I know right. It's like Cy Young and his 511 wins....

Wins are a terrible stat, who cares that he holds the MLB record with 511 wins

Ace, I'll give Cy Young at least a a little more credit for his 511 wins, cuz back then pitchers completed their own games most of the time, win or lose, and pitched on a lot less rest than these days. I'd say that he really earned his Wins more than most modern pitchers. Still a lousy stat, but it's a little better when you're completing most of your games.

Crucis
09-17-2011, 10:51 PM
I do believe there is a time limit that pitchers get between pitches.

It only exists when no one's on base (12 seconds) and it gets ignored. Don't blame the pitchers if the umps aren't going to enforce it. And don't forget that batters like to step out of the box from time to time, just to break up a pitcher's rhythm, if he's going good. (Of course, that's probably more of a thing done to starters than closers, but still ...)

xxplayerxx23
09-17-2011, 11:16 PM
That he's going to pass Mariano ;)

Imagen :D

Fly
09-17-2011, 11:36 PM
isn't he a free agent after this season?

Jeffy25
09-17-2011, 11:42 PM
yes

GoatMilk
09-18-2011, 03:18 AM
He's a FA, but i really cant see him anywhere but Boston

any ideas on where he would go if not Boston?

Fly
09-18-2011, 10:30 AM
i wish the cards had the money to get him
but we just need to focus on Pujols
but God knows we need some bullpen help :sigh:

Bombtista
09-18-2011, 12:28 PM
He's a FA, but i really cant see him anywhere but Boston

any ideas on where he would go if not Boston?

I would think chances are he would be staying in Boston but there are many teams with closing troubles that would and will at least make a bid for him if he isn't locked up.

Doubt he would go anywhere within the division but the Jays and their 2nd worst save % in the league could use him for sure!

NYYrdbest
09-18-2011, 12:35 PM
How was Hoffman not a top five closer?

1. Mariano Rivera

2. Rollie Fingers

3. Bruce Sutter

4. Lee Smith

5. Dennis Eckersley

... do I have to continue?

NYYrdbest
09-18-2011, 12:47 PM
Primarily because he's a Yankee and is one of those Yankees who's never been on any other team. The accomplishments of people like Rivera & Jeter get much more play in the media and by fans than others get.

All right... name any current team that has a potential HOF SS and Closer for over... "only" 10 years.

Jeter and Rivera should be appreciated no just by yankees fans but also by any ordinary baseball fan. I am a Yankkes fan but admire greatness, for instance I think that Papelbon is history in the making, and of course I don't like the redsox that much, to say the least. :D

fingerbang
09-18-2011, 01:47 PM
Tell Matt Thornton that the 9th inning is just as easy as the 8th.

"Ace"ves
09-18-2011, 02:30 PM
Ace, I'll give Cy Young at least a a little more credit for his 511 wins, cuz back then pitchers completed their own games most of the time, win or lose, and pitched on a lot less rest than these days. I'd say that he really earned his Wins more than most modern pitchers. Still a lousy stat, but it's a little better when you're completing most of your games.

I know, i was being sarcastic to prove that sometimes "stupid" simple stats do hold meaning. I don't care if Rivera only pitched 1 inning for saves, he still racked up 600 saves and is going to break the record.

I give him a lot of credit because he's been consistent over his entire career, has been successful (understatement) in the postseason, and you don't get lucky 600 times.

Jeffy25
09-18-2011, 03:02 PM
i wish the cards had the money to get him
but we just need to focus on Pujols
but God knows we need some bullpen help :sigh:

Seriously, Jason Motte is almost the same pitcher.

I have zero idea why fans and TLR won't give him an honest look at closer, he has been our best reliever the last two years, and is literally comparable to Paps and is a hell of a lot cheaper (and won't cost a first round draft pick).

"Ace"ves
09-18-2011, 03:05 PM
Seriously, Jason Motte is almost the same pitcher.

I have zero idea why fans and TLR won't give him an honest look at closer, he has been our best reliever the last two years, and is literally comparable to Paps and is a hell of a lot cheaper (and won't cost a first round draft pick).

And will pitch a game a lot faster

Jeffy25
09-18-2011, 03:06 PM
1. Mariano Rivera

2. Rollie Fingers

3. Bruce Sutter

4. Lee Smith

5. Dennis Eckersley

... do I have to continue?

Rivera is the best of the group

Fingers and Sutter are a solid 2-3 that Hoffman easily compares to.

Smith and Eck were worse than Hoffman.

So yeah, continue if you want to find five closers better than Hoffman. At the very worst, he is the 4th best all time.

Jeffy25
09-18-2011, 03:10 PM
Tell Matt Thornton that the 9th inning is just as easy as the 8th.

Sure

Thornton career

Save situations - opponents hitting - .241/.315/.341
Non-Save situations - opponents hitting - .229/.306/.360

In save situations - 2.97 ERA, 139.1 IP, 143 K, 59 BB
In non-save situations - 3.80 ERA, 310.0 IP, 346 K, 126 BB

Looks like it is just as easy for Thornton to pitch in the 9th as it is to pitch in the 8th, in fact, it would appear he prefers it slightly.

Twitchy
09-18-2011, 03:43 PM
Rivera is the best of the group

Fingers and Sutter are a solid 2-3 that Hoffman easily compares to.

Smith and Eck were worse than Hoffman.

So yeah, continue if you want to find five closers better than Hoffman. At the very worst, he is the 4th best all time.

I'm not for or against Hoffman here, but I hate when people leave Billy Wagner out. I'd take him over Hoffman in a heart beat.

Jeffy25
09-18-2011, 03:46 PM
I'm not for or against Hoffman here, but I hate when people leave Billy Wagner out. I'd take him over Hoffman in a heart beat.

Yeah, probably.

Wagner was rather under-rated in his career.

His numbers do appear in line to be superior to Hoffman.

Green_Monster
09-19-2011, 05:03 PM
All right... name any current team that has a potential HOF SS and Closer for over... "only" 10 years.

Jeter and Rivera should be appreciated no just by yankees fans but also by any ordinary baseball fan. I am a Yankkes fan but admire greatness, for instance I think that Papelbon is history in the making, and of course I don't like the redsox that much, to say the least. :D

So you can just pick any 2 positions and think another team will have HF players at the same position? :facepalm: