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nycericanguy
09-06-2011, 09:31 AM
NBA Lockout Update: Sides are closer than they’re saying


NEW YORK — Here’s the dirty little secret about the NBA lockout, despite what both sides — the owners and the players — would have you believe:

They are a lot closer to a settlement than most people realize.

I know this because I talk regularly with a bunch of important people who tell me important things, and I am going to explain why I believe a settlement will be reached that will not only save the season, but also enable the NBA to have an “all is forgiven” honeymoon period (similar to what the NFL just experienced following its labor settlement) in which the frenzy of free agents signings, trades, training camps and exhibition games will make everyone forget all of the doomsday talk they’ve been hearing all summer.

First, some background. If you only listened to union director Billy Hunter, as NBA players were doing in late August while Hunter was touring the country giving status updates to his locked-out membership, you’d think the sides are currently $8 billion apart in their stagnant negotiations. That is the party line from the union.

But it is not entirely true.

Yes, under the 10-year collective bargaining agreement the owners have proposed, the gap is indeed somewhere in the area of $7-8 billion range.

But if you look at the six-year deal the players have proposed, which includes $500 million less in annual revenue (than what they would have received under the old deal) over the six upcoming seasons, the simple math tells a different story:

Over those six years, the difference in proposed revenues that would go to the players adds up to $2.97 billion.

That is still a significant amount of money, but it is nowhere near as significant as what is being put out there publicly.

Moreover, if you look at years 1, 2 and 3 of the proposals, the sides are a total of $870 million apart. (The players are asking for $2.17 billion in salaries and benefits in 2011-12, $2.33 billion in ’12-13, and $2.42 billion in ’13-14. The owners are offering a flat $2 billion per year.)

Or to put it another way, in a business that brought in $4.2 billion in revenues last season, the sides are only $170 million apart for next season.

Does that seem like an insurmountable difference that would justify the cancellation of the season? No — especially given the fact that neither side has said it has put its “last and best” offer on the table.

The gap in what each side is seeking financially in Years 4, 5 and 6 is more significant, and what the owners are asking for in Years 7, 8, 9 and 10 is not completely germane to the equation right now because the players have not indicated they would be willing to do a deal for longer than six years, and history shows the sides traditionally have negotiated six-year labor agreements.

Owners and players are scheduled to reconvene Wednesday or Thursday to set in motion a series of meetings that will determine whether the lockout is settled in time to save a full 82-game season. If the owners come to the table with an offer that promises more money than the flatlined $2 billion in Years 1-7 that they have been proposing, they’ll be getting somewhere. So that’s the first thing to watch for.

Another major sticking point, for now, is the owner’s desire to transition from the current soft cap system to a hard cap system in Year 3 of the new CBA, which would necessitate an unprecedented giveback, perhaps through an unlimited escrow tax, perhaps from an across-the-board salary cut for every NBA player, that the players would simply not accept. (If Hunter put that proposal forward to his membership for a vote, it would be rejected, he would be out of a job, and the sides would go back to square one.)

Also, a transition to a hard team cap in Year 3 would almost certainly necessitate the breakup of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in Miami. You think the NBA really wants that?

So the Year 3 transition that the league is seeking is actually a red herring. But if there were to be a transition to a hard cap (or a harder team cap through a more punitive luxury tax system) in Year 5 or Year 6, it would allow teams a half-decade of long-term financial planning to get ready for the new harder-cap system. This is one of the areas where it seems the owners have no choice but to soften their current stance.

But here is the key thing, the two most important words to keep in mind as this lockout plays itself out: Aggregate dollars.

Right now, the owners have offered the players slightly more than $12 billion in total compensation over the next six seasons. The players are seeking just under $15 billion.

Somewhere in between $12 and $15 billion lies the settlement number, and they’ll get there one way or another. Once that happens, it’ll take only a few days to tweak other aspects of the CBA – pensions, the anti-drug policy, the draft, the age limit, group licensing — that have barely even been touched upon in negotiating sessions thus far. It would then take approximately two weeks to put the agreement into writing, and then the business would reopen.

So what does that mean in terms of a deadline to save the current 82-game schedule?

Here is a projected timeline that pushes things about as far as you can push them:

Oct. 1: An agreement is reached on aggregate dollars.

Oct. 4: All remaining issues are settled.

Oct. 5-19: The agreement is put into writing.

Oct. 20: Free agency opens and players already under contract are allowed to report to their teams.

Oct. 21-31: Training camps are held, and each team plays two exhibition games.

Nov. 1: The season opens on time, with three games: Bulls-Mavericks and Thunder-Lakers in a TNT doubleheader, along with Rockets-Jazz.

I have been saying all along that there is too much to be lost by having a work stoppage that extends into the fall and forces the cancellation of games. And with the NBA coming off a fantastic season in which attendance, ratings and merchandise sales all skyrocketed, there is took much risk of punishing the product to go too far down the bumpy road the owners have chosen to take.

At the end of the day, they have too much to gain by making a deal that gives them a significantly larger share of the pie that what they were getting under the old deal. And lastly, all of the principle players in the negotiations are reasonable and rational men. They are not interested in destroying what they’ve built up over the past several seasons, especially in 2010-11.

So a settlement is coming, and I am here to tell you that it’ll likely come a lot sooner than most everyone else has been predicting. It’ll take a lot of back-and-forth over the remainder of September, but it can certainly get done when both sides can identify the middle ground and move there simultaneously.

http://sheridanhoops.com/2011/09/05/nba-lockout-update-sides-are-closer-than-theyre-saying/

NYKnickFanatic
09-06-2011, 09:42 AM
Great news, hopefully it happens.

-Kobe24-TJ19-
09-06-2011, 09:45 AM
nah, not gonna believe it.

Hawkeye15
09-06-2011, 09:47 AM
hope its true. We shall see

ManRam
09-06-2011, 09:56 AM
My interest in the NBA right now is at an all-time low. It's just weird what this silly lockout has done. Didn't happen to me in the NFL one...

Hope it's true. I wanna start caring again!

nycericanguy
09-06-2011, 09:58 AM
Whats interesting is Sheridan just left ESPN as I posted in related thread. This is his new site that he just started and his first article, so he may just be looking for publicity on the new site...Interesting. He was first to report the Melo to NY thing though.

asandhu23
09-06-2011, 10:12 AM
I call BOOOOOOOLSSSSSHEEEEEEEETTT

MrfadeawayJB
09-06-2011, 10:17 AM
I hope its true, but they need to get it worked out before the projected dates

Shmontaine
09-06-2011, 10:41 AM
training camp AND only two exhibition games --- all in 10 days?? I don't think so...

beasted86
09-06-2011, 10:52 AM
^Yeah... even going by his timeline, they will probably miss some games.

Gators123
09-06-2011, 10:56 AM
:jumpy:

Shmontaine
09-06-2011, 11:02 AM
^Yeah... even going by his timeline, they will probably miss some games.

going from a two week training camp to what, 6 days?? all while teams have had no contact with their players to plan?? No dice...

going from a three week pre-season with 8-9 games to a 4 day pre-season with 2 games?? hell no...

free agency 1 day??? what about RFA (if they still exist)... there's a 7-day waiting period until it's official... how do you run training camp without all players not accounted for???

teams will need more time than normal coming out of this lockout to get all players & coaches together and working again... games will be missed IMO...

da ThRONe
09-06-2011, 11:03 AM
If this does happen it will be the owners budging the most on the money (which means they exaggerated their lost). If these issues are remotely as ugly as reported this gets ugly. Guys aren't signing overseas because they think this will just blow over.

NYman15
09-06-2011, 11:11 AM
I'd love for it to be true, but I have doubts. Other than this, everything I have heard says its gonna be a long lockout and games will be missed.
I hope it true though.

AIMelo=KillaDUO
09-06-2011, 11:38 AM
This is all a conspiracy!!!

asandhu23
09-06-2011, 12:13 PM
This is all a conspiracy!!!

Likemystylez approves of this post.

Stack_NJNets
09-06-2011, 07:31 PM
This is too good to be true.

lakerboy
09-06-2011, 08:40 PM
Hope it is true. I will be sick to my stomach if we do not have a full season.

Korman12
09-06-2011, 08:52 PM
All I can do is hope

bmd1101
09-06-2011, 08:52 PM
Similar to how I saw it, notice not a single word about contraction. Yall generally eat up what the major media spouts about this ****, the fact is, the major media is in bed with the NBA period, they have a vested interest in being on the side of the nba/owners as they are still paying big $$ for games that wont be played/covered on their networks (ABC/TNT ect), not to mention the other sponsors (tmobile/kia ect) due to the lockout. Thats without touching the local markets. Again, what's not being said is FAR more important then what is being said by NBAPA/Stern/Owners/Major media.

likemystylez
09-06-2011, 08:57 PM
Likemystylez approves of this post.

I dont think Im as well known in these parts as on our Golden State Forum. LOl i dont remember using the word conspiracy all that much though. I think the percieved association with my claims and conspiracies might be a conspiracy itself. :D


Yeah its hard to believe this article, and believe me I tried. I mean if there was some type of negotiating going on during the meetings, or even proposals being made by either side... it would make me feel a lot better. I just dont know how this is going to change and get moving. I dont know what it is going to take for one of the sides to budge a little bit.... LOL its like following a staring contest with two really good contestants..... not too exciting

likemystylez
09-06-2011, 09:01 PM
Similar to how I saw it, notice not a single word about contraction. Yall generally eat up what the major media spouts about this ****, the fact is, the major media is in bed with the NBA period, they have a vested interest in being on the side of the nba/owners as they are still paying big $$ for games that wont be played/covered on their networks (ABC/TNT ect), not to mention the other sponsors (tmobile/kia ect) due to the lockout. Thats without touching the local markets. Again, what's not being said is FAR more important then what is being said by NBAPA/Stern/Owners/Major media.

wel I do think the big media outlets have been trying to make this sound way worse than it is. I mean even before this happened the big names have been talking about certain owners willing to lose 5 years if thats what it takes.

However, i think this exagurated assesment of the situation has made the players and the owners less willing to make deals/ neither side wants to be known as the Bee ootch, and they are willing to punish the fans to avoid that. its more or less an ego battle at this point... which i think was atleast partially fueled by the media leading up to it.

Punk
09-06-2011, 09:07 PM
I'm so glad there is confirmation on this because I found it weird that they do not want to discuss anything within the meetings all of a sudden, they say "nobody is moving" yet reports come out 3 weeks later saying they are optimistic and made strides.

I believe it. The thing that made this lockout seem nuts was how great the last season was and the basic things both sides want are fair and easily able to be reached. The whole "small market teams will benefit from a fixed cap" was always off because there is a few teams that are small market and will need more than 45 million.

There is too much hype around this upcoming season and 2012 FA class for them to mess it up.

^Yeah... even going by his timeline, they will probably miss some games.

I'm thinking atleast 10 pre-season games canceled mainly the US games. I doubt we will see any regular canclactions in the regular season. Maybe, 80 games instead of 82.

NYKNYGNYY
09-06-2011, 09:08 PM
illl belive it wen i see it

NBA_Starter
09-06-2011, 09:10 PM
Hope for the best, expect the worst!

likemystylez
09-06-2011, 09:12 PM
illl belive it wen i see it

thats what I said about mark jackson actually getting a headcoaching job..... I still have trouble believing it though :facepalm:

Fresno
09-06-2011, 09:23 PM
I'm thinking atleast 10 pre-season games canceled mainly the US games. I doubt we will see any regular canclactions in the regular season. Maybe, 80 games instead of 82.

NBA teams only play 8 pre-season games. Those games are completely irrelevant as far as the NBA season goes in terms of attendance/media coverage/roster shaping. If they got canceled it wont hurt the league at all, in comparison to the NFL in which it would've been a huge impact.

Basically the pre-season is the last 15-30 games of the season for every NBA team not in Playoff contention. Those games usually dictate the short term and longterm course of each team when it comes to their veterans, young talent, coaching, management, & fan support.


Also, why 80 games? If cancelations of 2 regular season games to start the season occured, they'd just be rescheduled during a home stand or road trip later in the season.

Bulls_fan90
09-06-2011, 09:30 PM
I know this because I talk regularly with a bunch of important people who tell me important things

Lol ok.

Fresno
09-06-2011, 09:31 PM
Its not surprising to see that the owners have backed down on the "My way or the highway" approach because as it starts to become a reality of teams missing regular season games. Of course you have the small market owners led by Dan Gilbert willing to sacrifice games for the sake of "evening out the playing field". However, we all know Dan Gilbert would be the first one voting against a lockout if LeBron was still there and the Cavs were still profitable.

However, the powerful major market owners who were against the lockout anyways are showing their power in these meetings. Unlike the NFL, everybody isnt on board with the same decisions. No way any of these owners like Jerry Buss, Mark Cuban, James Dolan, Micky Arison, etc want to lose money out of their own pockets with canceled games because a few irrelevant owners are *****ing over poor management decisions and struggling with fan support due to it.

Punk
09-06-2011, 09:32 PM
NBA teams only play 8 pre-season games. Those games are completely irrelevant as far as the NBA season goes in terms of attendance/media coverage/roster shaping. If they got canceled it wont hurt the league at all, in comparison to the NFL in which it would've been a huge impact.

Basically the pre-season is the last 15-30 games of the season for every NBA team not in Playoff contention. Those games usually dictate the short term and longterm course of each team when it comes to their veterans, young talent, coaching, management, & fan support.


Also, why 80 games? If cancelations of 2 regular season games to start the season occured, they'd just be rescheduled during a home stand or road trip later in the season.

Because, I think they will most likely miss atleast most of the normal training camp schedule. If training camp is in mid or late September, I expect it to officially start in mid October considering the 2 week process of a deal to be reached and free agency.

If, you look at most of the team's schedules, there isn't alot of room to reschedule unless they played 3 back to backs.

NBA_Starter
09-06-2011, 09:34 PM
I think they are def going to miss some games!

Fresno
09-06-2011, 09:49 PM
Because, I think they will most likely miss atleast most of the normal training camp schedule. If training camp is in mid or late September, I expect it to officially start in mid October considering the 2 week process of a deal to be reached and free agency.

If, you look at most of the team's schedules, there isn't alot of room to reschedule unless they played 3 back to backs.

That really isnt that bad of a setup. That really would be a best case scenario.

You dont need much time for Free Agency considering there isnt the suspense we had last year with so many players being unrestricted Free Agents. You really only need 1 week at the most, just enough for Restricted Free Agents to accept their Qualifying Offer or have their Offer Sheet signed/matched. That can run concurrent with Training Camp, because every team can find camp bodies until they sign Free Agents who will be apart of the team.

The only question will be if the MLE still exists. That is the game changer.

In terms of Training Camp, you're right mid-October is pushing it awfully close to the official start of the season. At the same time Training Camp in the NBA really isnt that important into affecting the Regular Season either, espescially with some guys playing their way into "basketball shape" during the season. However, any games that may need to be canceled will just be rescheduled. A 6 month season gives you time to find dates to get those games played, and that would mean back to backs. It can be done.

topdog
09-06-2011, 10:06 PM
No one wants to lose money. That's what happens if they lose the season. They will not lose the season.

P.S. A third party - sponsors - can put more pressure on this because at some point they will pull out of deals.

bmd1101
09-06-2011, 10:30 PM
No one wants to lose money. That's what happens if they lose the season. They will not lose the season.

P.S. A third party - sponsors - can put more pressure on this because at some point they will pull out of deals.

Part of the point I was trying to make, look back at my post, yall have no idea the pressure NBA is going to be under VERY VERY soon. If they think what they are losing dollar wise right now is bad, they haven't seen **** yet.

In summary, the owners/nba will soon bend over, contraction was never an option, and I think we will have near a normal season.

69centers
09-06-2011, 10:37 PM
They are supposed to meet tomorrow, and possibly Thurs. and Fri. if negotiating goes well. That's very good progress and I think we may even have most of the preseason saved if things work out this week.

WolvesJagsOs
09-06-2011, 10:40 PM
^It's a longshot but its definetely not out of the question.

DoMeFavors
09-06-2011, 10:58 PM
i miss nba news, right now its boring.

heyman321
09-07-2011, 01:38 AM
They are supposed to meet tomorrow, and possibly Thurs. and Fri. if negotiating goes well. That's very good progress and I think we may even have most of the preseason saved if things work out this week.

lol

ChI_ShIzzLe
09-07-2011, 02:20 AM
They are supposed to meet tomorrow, and possibly Thurs. and Fri. if negotiating goes well. That's very good progress and I think we may even have most of the preseason saved if things work out this week.

Optimism at its finest.

TheRunKiller
09-07-2011, 02:39 AM
i hope its true :pray: I want to see the Bulls hold up that trophy

stawka
09-07-2011, 02:58 AM
I have the 90's Bulls dynasty on DVD - I can upload if you like?

Seriously though. I hope we get the season going. I think we'll get most of the season

Dundlenut
09-07-2011, 09:51 AM
I'll believe it when I see it. I am more interested to why this lock out is not talked about more in the media?