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GNick
09-04-2011, 04:06 AM
This season to date the Jays' bullpen have blown 23 saves resulting in 14 losses. Even if we had an average bullpen, our record would be 76-63 instead of 69-70.

Even with everything that has gone wrong this year. Jays got nothing out of Drabek, Cecil, Snider. Sticking way too long and half the season with Juan Rivera, Jo-Jo, Jayson Nix and Aaron Hill in the lineup. Encarnacion never hit a lick until he was full time DH.

If we had a closer and wouldn't stuck way too long with Jo-Jo/Rivera gang, even with everything that went wrong, we would be on cuff of pennant race with one of youngest teams in game and a 70 million dollar payroll.

damadmonk
09-04-2011, 09:21 AM
It's true.

But the Rays are having an off year as well and look at them.

I am optimistic though as we can afford to be a hybrid of the Rays and NY soon enough.

ILDD
09-04-2011, 09:32 AM
So with a decent bullpen we'd be level with Tampa with a 0.5% (according to coolstandings) chance of making the playoffs.

That would be a massive step forward.

3mikee_
09-04-2011, 11:07 AM
I don't think anyone ever said bullpen was our only problem... seen the slumps that the middle of our order has been through this season? Bautistas had 2 prolonged power slumps, even though he has been doing some little things like walking a **** load, we still need that slugging from him.

I don't even want to talk about Lind's struggles.

We had Aaron Hill hit in the 6/7th hole for us for like 85% of the season. Nuff said.

Starting pitching's been inconsistent at best, sometimes it looks like we got 4 legit rotation guys that we can depend on and sometimes it looks like we have one.

That stat about having a 0.5% of making the playoffs is... confusing, I'd like to see how they arrive at a stat like that..

ILDD
09-04-2011, 11:48 AM
That stat about having a 0.5% of making the playoffs is... confusing, I'd like to see how they arrive at a stat like that..

They basically look at the season each team has had so far, weight recent games a little higher and look forward to see the strength of schedule remaining. They calculate runs scored and runs and runs conceded for the rest of the season and use the pythagorean formula to see how many games each team "should" win between now and the rest of the season to give a final table.

They do this a million times and work out how often each team makes the playoffs to come up with a %.

Sure, it's not perfect but it's pretty close and better than I can do so it's what I use.

ghost dog
09-05-2011, 12:56 AM
They basically look at the season each team has had so far, weight recent games a little higher and look forward to see the strength of schedule remaining. They calculate runs scored and runs and runs conceded for the rest of the season and use the pythagorean formula to see how many games each team "should" win between now and the rest of the season to give a final table.

They do this a million times and work out how often each team makes the playoffs to come up with a %.

Sure, it's not perfect but it's pretty close and better than I can do so it's what I use.

DO WHAAA? You have to explain that again in layman's terms.

wamco
09-05-2011, 03:49 PM
[QUOTE=GNick;19092362]This season to date the Jays' bullpen have blown 23 saves resulting in 14 losses. Even if we had an average bullpen, our record would be 76-63 instead of 69-70.

-show your math

wamco
09-05-2011, 03:51 PM
.5 percent is basically a nice way of saying no chance in hell

koreancabbage
09-05-2011, 04:31 PM
i like Perez, Villueva, Litsh, Janssen, Fransisco (who's coming around, FINALLY), Camp and Carreno. Maybe one-two more big arms in there and we'll be fine.

starting rotation is pretty sick and solid if McGowan fully recovers. Romero, (Darvish??), Morrow, Alvarez, McGowan- that's as solid 1-5 anywhere in the majors.

StealingSigns
09-05-2011, 05:03 PM
Frank looked GREAT today.

Expos
09-05-2011, 05:17 PM
If Villanueva sticks in the bullpen and Perez is moved back there next season, it looks like all the Jays need is someone to step in and close.

BBB
09-05-2011, 05:22 PM
Frank looked GREAT today.

0ER in last 16IP.. impressive.

broncosfan_101
09-05-2011, 06:00 PM
Francisco
Janssen
Rivera
Villanueva
Litsch

That's a solid start to a bullpen next year. Add another guy, maybe have Carreno round it out, I'm confident with that group.

BlueJaysFan
09-05-2011, 06:15 PM
I thought we were going to try and get back Jason at the end of the season

mtf
09-05-2011, 07:04 PM
Francisco
Janssen
Rivera
Villanueva
Litsch

That's a solid start to a bullpen next year. Add another guy, maybe have Carreno round it out, I'm confident with that group.

Interesting that you kept Francisco in that group, despite his recent success.

Kevin Gregg had moderate success' last season but I'm really glad that didn't sway anyone in the organization to bring him back.

Toxeryll
09-05-2011, 07:15 PM
Interesting that you kept Francisco in that group, despite his recent success.

Kevin Gregg had moderate success' last season but I'm really glad that didn't sway anyone in the organization to bring him back.

lol speaking of Gregg, he said this a couple of days ago: link (http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/2011/09/gregg_you_obviously_havent_acq.html)

"The bottom line is you obviously haven’t acquired my taste in pitching yet,”
hahaha, i mean who would want to acquire your "taste in pitching", you piece of ****

craigerlee
09-05-2011, 07:27 PM
Francisco
Janssen
Rivera
Villanueva
Litsch

That's a solid start to a bullpen next year. Add another guy, maybe have Carreno round it out, I'm confident with that group.

Who's Rivera? Did you maybe mean Perez or Rauch?

BlueJaysFan
09-05-2011, 08:02 PM
Who's Rivera? Did you maybe mean Perez or Rauch?

Thought that same thing but didn't wanna sound stupid incase I was forgetting about someone haha :facepalm:

GNick
09-05-2011, 08:16 PM
My bullpen would probably round out something like this:

Brian Fuentes 1 year 5 million. Give Davis back to Oakland for him.

Casey Janssen 1 year 1.5 million. 8th inning setup guy

George Sherrill 1 year 1.5 million. Lefty specialist

Jesse Litsch 1 year 1 million. Righty specialist

Carlos Villanueva 1 year 1.5 million. Long relief/spot starter

Joel Carrano 1 year 0.5 million

Possibly Joe Nathan 1 year 4 million. He saved 44 games just 2 years ago.

wamco
09-05-2011, 09:45 PM
This season to date the Jays' bullpen have blown 23 saves resulting in 14 losses. Even if we had an average bullpen, our record would be 76-63 instead of 69-70.


How so?