PDA

View Full Version : Supermatt's Annual Jays Prospect Rankings



supermatt1331
08-17-2011, 04:59 PM
Hey guys, I just wanted to drop in and share my top prospects rankings that I like to share every year. Would love to hear feedback and see others make their own rankings. Here are my two cents:

1. Brett Lawrie, 3B: Obviously the top spot here goes to Brett Lawrie. The top position prospect for the Jays coming into this season hasn't disappointed. Before making his big league debut, Lawrie destroyed the PCL with an OPS of 1.076. Since his call to the bigs, Lawrie hasn't missed a step. He has been a sparkplug for the Blue Jays offense and looks like he's here to stay.

2. Travis D'arnaud, C: D'arnaud was considered a secondary piece to Kyle Drabek when the Jays traded Halladay to Philly, but this season D'arnaud has made it clear that he takes a backseat to nobody. Coming into this season, Travis had battled injuries that kept him from having truly successful campaigns. This season, however, is a different story. D'arnaud has lit up AA pitching to the tune of 17 HR's and a .940 OPS, great numbers for any player, let alone a 22 year old catcher. With his defensive ability, along with his evident talent at the plate, look for D'arnaud to be on many top 25 prospects lists this offseason. The only area he could improve upon would be his plate discipline with only 31 BB's this season.

3. Anthony Gose, CF: After being acquired for Brett Wallace last season, Gose had the Blue Jays nation spotlight on him. Trading a seemingly major league ready 1st Baseman for a "toolsy" CF in A Ball didnt seem to draw too much praise. However, this season Gose has proven that those tools could very well turn into an everyday Major League centerfielder. Gose has shown tremendous speed and much better instincts on the basepaths. He has stolen 52 bases already this season, at a success rate of 77%. Last season, while stealing 45 bags, his success rate was only 58%, a dramatic improvement indeed. Other areas of his game have improved as well, including his power. Gose has hit 13 HR's already, almost doubling his career high of 7 from last year. Although his walk rate has improved, Anthony has still had problems with strikeouts. Thats something he can look to improve upon on going forward. With a great glove, arm, speed and developing power, Gose looks like he's going to be one to watch for years to come.

4. Kyle Drabek, RHP: Drabek has definitely had a disappointing 2011 campaign. Starting in the bigs, he struggled start after start to find the strikezone. Being demoted to AAA, one would expect Kyle to improve upon his big league performance. That hasn't been the case. While his walks seem to be coming down, his opponents batting average has increased. Some might be willing to write him off, but I'm not. Drabek has a Major League arm and at least 2 above average big league pitches. Lets remember Roy Halladay before casting doubt on Drabek. Halladay had to rework his mechanics before becoming the best pitcher in the league. Drabek has a bulldog mentality and a good support group. I still look to him as a big part of the franchise going forward.

5. Henderson Alvarez, RHP: Alvarez has always been a favourite of mine and I was definitely excited to see him make his Blue Jays debut. Henderson has taken his game to another level with an increase in velocity, even touching 100MPH on the gun during a side session. While he's unlikely to frequently touch the upper 90's with his fastball, he will definitely sit around 93-95 with great sink. His groundball rate has always been phenomenal and will lead to even better results with major league fielding behind him. If he can miss a few more bats along the way with a solid breaking pitch, Alvarez has the stuff to be a mainstay at the top of the rotation for years.

6. Jake Marisnick, CF: Some might view Marisnick's spot on this list as a little too optimistic, however, I have full belief that within a year from now, Jake will be considered a league-wide top 50 prospect. Marisnick, as cliche as it sounds, could very well be a "5 tool player." This season in Lansing, Marisnick has played great defense, has shown a good arm, is hitting .320, with 32 SB's and 12 HR's. With his athletic ability, there is a good chance he will be able to stay in CF, which increases his prospect status even more. Marisnick is definitely due for a promotion, which I hope he receives before the end of the season. If he can rake in the Florida State League, I think we'll definitely have a better idea of just what kind of player he can be.

7. Deck McGuire, RHP: Toronto's 1st Rd. pick in 2010, McGuire's first professional season can be qualified as a success. After being considered one of the more polished college pitching prospects in the draft last season, McGuire has proven those labels true by already being promoted to AA. In Dunedin, Deck averaged 8.8 K/9 and 2.7 K/BB. Very good numbers for a rookie in pro ball. He's had a rougher start to his AA career while battling a back issue, but I expect McGuire to have a great season in 2012 with New Hampshire, get a cup of coffee with the Jays in Aug/Sept 2012 and be big league rotation ready by Spring 2013. Look for Deck to be a solid #3.

8. Drew Hutchison, RHP: The epitome of #Beastmode this season. Hutchison will probably have a bigger jump in prospect rankings then any other Blue Jay 'spec. The stats justify the hype. In 198 IP in his professional career, Hutchison owns a 2.64 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 and 4.0 K/BB. Since his promotion to Dunedin, Drew has only gotten better. He has decreased his WHIP and increased his K/BB ratio. Being booyed by a boost in velocity and a clear command of the strikezone, expect Hutchison to rocket up the rankings list of baseball experts.

9. Adeiny Hechavarria, SS: Adeiny's name has definitely fallen out of favour with most Blue Jays fans. While his glove is described as remarkable, his bat has shown to be anemic. Signed for $10 Million out of Cuba, a lot of pressure was put on this "Shortstop of the Future." Now I know almost 2 full seasons of disappointing results at the plate have put a sour taste in your mouth, but I think there's reason for optimism. The outstanding play of Yunel Escobar this season has reduced the pressure for immeadiate success that has been felt by Hechavarria. Now with almost 2 seasons under his belt, not only learning about becoming a better baseball player, but also learning a new language and culture, Hechavarria looks like he's primed to break out. His last couple weeks in New Hampshire saw success at the plate and through his first 5 games as a '51 he has hit over .500. Could a message be getting through? Could he finally be making the adjustments? We'll have to wait and see. The way I look at it, we have a 22 year old shortshop in AAA with an outstanding glove and athleticism to spare. I'll take that prospect in my farm system any day.

10. Justin Nicolino, LHP: The Blue Jays drafted Nicolino in the 2nd Rd of the 2010 Draft and he made his pro debut this summer for the new Vancouver Canadians. Since his debut Nicolino has been the best pitcher in the Northwest League and has established himself as someone to watch going forward. Some of his stats this year: 47.1 IP, 1.14 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 11.6 K/9, 5.5 K/BB and 0 HR's allowed. Absolute dominance. Now it is only Low A ball, but with this type of dominance at age 19, things are looking up for Nicolino. Oh, and did I mention he's a Lefty who stands 6'3 with room to grow?

11. Noah Syndergaard, RHP - 18 year old, 6'5 righty drafted 38th overall last year, Syndergaard has shown why the Jays had so much faith in drafting him above where most boards had him. Dominated Bluefield and has been very good in Vancouver, his potential could be through the roof.

12. A.J. Jimenez, C - 21 year old catcher for Dunedin, Jimenez has shown the ability to hit for average and has shown glimpses of speed, which is obviously unique for a catcher. His plate discipline has been suspect due to low walk rate and hasn't shown much power. His arm behind the plate (41% career CS) and ability to hit for average makes him a prospect to watch.

13. Michael Crouse, OF - 20 year old Canadian who is part of a talented OF in Lansing. Has great size (6'4, 215) and speed (37 SB this season). With emerging power (13 HR's) and a decent ability to draw a walk (39 BB), Crouse could very well follow Marisnick up the ranks.

14. Marcus Knecht, OF - The third member of the talented Lansing OF, Toronto-born Knecht has shown an advanced eye at the plate, leading to a great OBP of .392. Along with the ability to get on base, Knecht has shown solid pop with 13 HR's in his 1st full season of pro ball. Marisnick, Crouse and Knecht should be fun to watch as they develop.

15. Chad Jenkins, RHP - The tall righty has come as advertised. Doesn't have dominating stuff, but does have a great sinker that keeps the ball down and allows him to eat up innings. His career minor league numbers are nothing spectacular, but they're consistent. Looks like he will have a successful big league career as an above average #5 starter who will eat up innings and won't walk too many hitters. Might actually be ranked too low on this list due to lack of sexiness as a prospect.

16. Nestor Molina, RHP - Molina and Hutchison have been the darling pitchers in the Jays farm this season. The 22 year old has put up an obscene 123K/15BB. That's good for 8.2 K/BB ratio. With a career ERA of 2.34 and WHIP of 1.06, Molina has put himself on the map. The reason he isn't rated higher on this list is because I don't know whether his stuff will translate as well to the big leagues. I believe his fastball tops out around 90-91, so Molina must rely and great command to get by. Even still, it should be exciting to watch how he handles AA and eventually the majors.

17. Eric Thames, LF - Thames is almost an afterthought on this list because he has seen success with the Jays this season. I've always been a fan of his since he was drafted. He has hit everywhere he's played, including with the big club. His biggest question mark is obviously his defense, which has been subpar in his major league showing. It remains to be seen if he has much future with the Jays due to his less than stellar defense, but he will definitely hit enough to be an average big leaguer over the next several years.

18. Mike McDade, 1B - 22 year old AA 1st baseman. McDade as always hit enough to interest Jays fans and with his Prince Fielder type body, we've always hoped he would find a huge power stroke to put him over the top. So far he has been adequate, but lacks the big power and eye that he will need to be an everyday 1B or DH in the bigs. He's only 22, so there's still room to improve. He is said to be a solid defensively at first.

19. David Cooper, 1B - Picked in the 1st Rd of the 2008 Draft, Cooper has been the whipping boy of Jays nation. After hitting 30 2B's and 20 HR's last season, Cooper was promoted to AAA. This season, while his homerun power hasn't been there, Cooper has destroyed AAA pitching to the tune of .373 BA and 1.007 OPS. Although his defense leaves something to be desired, if Cooper has become a doubles hitting, high avg hitter, he may have a place on a big league squad. Don't write him off yet.

20. Daniel Norris, LHP - The newest prize to Blue Jays fans, Norris was the top rated LH high school pitcher. A lefty as young as Norris with a fastball that touches 97, Norris has scouts drooling over his potential. Can't wait to see him in action next summer.

Honourable Mentions:
Moises Sierra, Aaron Sanchez, Mitchell Taylor, Carlos Perez, Chris Hawkins, Dickie Thon Jr, Adonys Cardona, Griffin Murphy

Damn there's so many prospects in this system! Lets get your thoughts.

darth helmet
08-17-2011, 05:11 PM
I've heard a bit of hype about Sierra, I'm surprised to see him fall so low on your list. Is Thames even still considered a prospect at this point?

BlueJaysFan
08-17-2011, 05:12 PM
Impressive

BlueJaysFan
08-17-2011, 05:13 PM
I've heard a bit of hype about Sierra, I'm surprised to see him fall so low on your list. Is Thames even still considered a prospect at this point?

I wouldn't consider Thames a prospect.

wamco
08-17-2011, 05:16 PM
or lawrie or drabek

Farsight
08-17-2011, 05:16 PM
Nice list, i would just remove Thames and Drabek. I know Drabek is still considered a prospect, but he probably wont be on anyones prospect list. I would still have Carlos Perez and Aaron Sanchez on the list. I would move Hechavarria down the list, and remove Cooper and maybe McDade off the top 20

Farsight
08-17-2011, 05:17 PM
or lawrie or drabek
Lawrie needs more at bats before he is officially graduated from the list in my opinion

wamco
08-17-2011, 05:22 PM
lawrie will get those abs over the course of the season

Farsight
08-17-2011, 05:35 PM
. Really, nothing better to do than to troll us for the past week

3mikee_
08-17-2011, 06:00 PM
Really, nothing better to do than to troll us for the past week

lol for a second I thought the post was made by someone who had a serious opinion.

Love the list, I'm kind of surprised that Sierra is so low, and yea I agree with your point on Thames. I don't see his defense improving anytime soon, I don't know if he can hit enough to stay on our team.

Krylian
08-17-2011, 07:13 PM
To me, once a player has enough AB's or innings pitches to have lost their rookie status I don't consider them prospects anymore. Drabek and Thames should be off the list.

If Lawrie has 130+ AB's then he won't be on the list for next year.

lmallia
08-17-2011, 07:45 PM
Seeing Marisnick so high makes my panties wet.. I love this kid.

wamco
08-17-2011, 07:49 PM
To me, once a player has enough AB's or innings pitches to have lost their rookie status I don't consider them prospects anymore. .

-That's pretty much the definition, eh?

BlueJayFanDan
08-17-2011, 08:15 PM
Seeing Marisnick so high makes my panties wet.. I love this kid.

Marisnick has some serious star potential.

Krylian
08-17-2011, 08:48 PM
-That's pretty much the definition, eh?

Is it the official cutoff? That's how I've always looked at it but have never really seen anyone define when they don't include players in a prospect list any more.

Krylian
08-17-2011, 09:01 PM
Here's my quick 20.

1. Lawrie
2. d'Arnaud
3. Alvarez
4. Hutchison
5. Marisnick
6. Gose
7. Syndergaard
8. McGuire
9. Nicolino
10. Perez
11. Norris
12. Hechavarria
13. Knecht
14. Cardona
15. Crouse
16. Sierra
17. Molina
18. Jimenez
19. Taylor
20. Carreno

North Yorker
08-17-2011, 09:31 PM
Here's my quick 20.

1. Lawrie
2. d'Arnaud
3. Alvarez
4. Hutchison
5. Marisnick
6. Gose
7. Syndergaard
8. McGuire
9. Nicolino
10. Perez
11. Norris
12. Hechavarria
13. Knecht
14. Cardona
15. Crouse
16. Sierra
17. Molina
18. Jimenez
19. Taylor
20. Carreno

Carreno but no Sanchez? Interesting.

I was also under the impression that Jiminez was/is considered the better C spec than Perez, although I havent followed him much this year so I dont know.

I would also probably swap Molina and Cardona for the time being, just because of the ridiculous numbers Molina has put up this year.

naidle
08-17-2011, 09:52 PM
Here's my quick 20.

1. Lawrie
2. d'Arnaud
3. Alvarez
4. Hutchison
5. Marisnick
6. Gose
7. Syndergaard
8. McGuire
9. Nicolino
10. Perez
11. Norris
12. Hechavarria
13. Knecht
14. Cardona
15. Crouse
16. Sierra
17. Molina
18. Jimenez
19. Taylor
20. Carreno

See, Norris to me immediately goes into the top 10. I feel you have Gose and Alvarez too high. Still though it's a nice list. Big fan of Marisnick.

Farsight
08-17-2011, 09:52 PM
Carreno but no Sanchez? Interesting.

I was also under the impression that Jiminez was/is considered the better C spec than Perez, although I havent followed him much this year so I dont know.

I would also probably swap Molina and Cardona for the time being, just because of the ridiculous numbers Molina has put up this year.
Other than this year, most would say that Perez has been a better catching prospect. Also, a lot of scouts at the start of the year argued that Perez had the highest ceiling of any bluejays catching prospect. This was before d'arnaud broke out.

masTOR_shake1
08-17-2011, 10:42 PM
great list man, thanks for doing the work :)

JMac4PM
08-17-2011, 11:31 PM
Molina definitely needs to be higher... ahead of Jenkins fo sho..

supermatt1331
08-18-2011, 09:12 AM
I still consider Drabek a prospect, hes played what, 3 months in the bigs? Never fully established his spot. Lawrie has played like 12 games in the bigs, hes still a prospect. Thames has only played 60 games with the Jays, but obviously after this year he won't be considered for this list. I'm not using the Rookie of the Year qualifications for this list. I'm using my best judgement as to whether they've been given ample opportunity to succeed at the next level.

Molina is a tricky case. Again, I think he's pitching better than his "stuff" right now. He's obviously pitching extremely well, but it may be tougher for him to succeed then a guy like Jenkins, who was a 1st Rd pick for a reason. Brad Mills had dominant numbers throughout the minors, but his fastball just isn't good enough to beat Major League pitching. I'm worried Molina might suffer from the same issues, although I realize that his fastball probably sits a couple MPH faster.

KaiserSose
08-18-2011, 09:14 AM
Impressive effort. Disagree with some placings but a great job nonetheless. Also would not include Drabek or Thames.

supermatt1331
08-18-2011, 09:19 AM
Other than this year, most would say that Perez has been a better catching prospect. Also, a lot of scouts at the start of the year argued that Perez had the highest ceiling of any bluejays catching prospect. This was before d'arnaud broke out.

In previous years I also had Perez ranked higher than Jimenez, however, they're the same age (1990) and Jimenez is outperforming Perez at a higher level. Not only is he outhitting Perez, but Jimenez's career caught stealing % is also 8 percentage points higher. Taking into consideration these factors, I believe Jimenez has taken the lead for the time being. That being said, Perez's eye at the plate definitely gives us hope that he will improve going forward.

supermatt1331
08-18-2011, 09:28 AM
Here's my quick 20.

1. Lawrie
2. d'Arnaud
3. Alvarez
4. Hutchison
5. Marisnick
6. Gose
7. Syndergaard
8. McGuire
9. Nicolino
10. Perez
11. Norris
12. Hechavarria
13. Knecht
14. Cardona
15. Crouse
16. Sierra
17. Molina
18. Jimenez
19. Taylor
20. Carreno

Solid list as well, although I would've included Chad Jenkins somewhere on that list. He's going to be a Major League pitcher. I would definitely have him above guys like Mitchell Taylor and Cardona just because how much closer he is.

town123
08-18-2011, 09:30 AM
In previous years I also had Perez ranked higher than Jimenez, however, they're the same age (1990) and Jimenez is outperforming Perez at a higher level. Not only is he outhitting Perez, but Jimenez's career caught stealing % is also 8 percentage points higher. Taking into consideration these factors, I believe Jimenez has taken the lead for the time being. That being said, Perez's eye at the plate definitely gives us hope that he will improve going forward.

Any clue why Perez looks so down this year? He just seems lazy like Molina this year, but without the smile.

supermatt1331
08-18-2011, 09:44 AM
Any clue why Perez looks so down this year? He just seems lazy like Molina this year, but without the smile.

Not sure what the deal is with Perez. With that lineup in Lansing I'm surprised he hasn't seen more success. This is his 1st year in full season ball, maybe that change has affected him somewhat? I'm just not sure. His walk rate has decreased which could mean the tougher pitching in the Midwest League has taken a toll on him.

Billyen
08-18-2011, 10:21 AM
great list man, thanks for doing the work :)

x2

Man our farm is getting stacked with talent. I've been losing track of them we have so many.

My 2011 Blue Jay season doesn't start til the end of the WS this year. I'd hope and expect 10 of the 20 to be moved for 2-3 "real deal" players.

Even with 10 of them gone we will still be in decent shape with the farm. It will be restocked there after. AA has done a great job

3-5 star players. 1 aces and OBP bat via trade. 1 ace, OBP bat and closer in FA and we are there.

We have the trade chips and bank role to make anything happen. Please don't use the word untouchable as long as AA is our GM. I thing we are going to see some amazing things in the off season. He'll go after players many of you think he can't...and get them.

Dol-Fan
08-18-2011, 10:29 AM
Nice list. Thanks for the write up.

However, I would probably remove Drabek and Thames...possibly even Lawrie. That way you make room for guys like Mitchell Taylor and Aaron Sanchez, who really should be on this list. I'd also probably take out Cooper and McDade, although I can totally understand their inclusion.

supermatt1331
08-18-2011, 10:33 AM
We have the trade chips and bank role to make anything happen. Please don't use the word untouchable as long as AA is our GM. I thing we are going to see some amazing things in the off season. He'll go after players many of you think he can't...and get them.

I definitely would love to see some prospects moved for serious pieces to make a run in the next couple years here. I would 1st throw a ton of money at Fielder, I think being able to hold onto to prospects is worth the huge contract. After that I would look towards someone like Hanley Ramirez to possibly fill the 2B hole that Aaron Hill has left us.

In terms of "untouchables" I would definitely say Lawrie and D'arnaud would have to be considered for that list. D'arnaud's value is through the roof and obviously Lawrie looks to be the star the Jays have been searching for. Everyone else in the system can be had for the right price.

La11
08-18-2011, 11:05 AM
Great List and excellent write up. Your right about Thames and Drabek being prospects.

supermatt1331
08-18-2011, 11:11 AM
Great List and excellent write up. Your right about Thames and Drabek being prospects.

Thanks a lot! I wrote it while I was at work. Obviously didn't get much work done lol. I've just always loved talking about the Jays farm and now with everyone we have it's very exciting.

JMac4PM
08-18-2011, 11:26 AM
Stlll dont understand why people dont have Molina higher up... guy has a ERA of 2.52 and a 8.2:1 K:BB ratio in A/AA and its his first year as a starter. He also has had a history of putting up good numbers as a reliever in previous years.

BlueJaysLee
08-18-2011, 11:33 AM
Posted this on the Jays board too but thought I'd lend my two cents here as well

1 3B Brett Lawrie
2 C Travis d'Arnaud
3 SP Deck McGuire
4 SS Adeiny Hechavarria
5 CF Anthony Gose
6 SP Henderson Alvarez
7 SP Drew Hutchinson
8 SP Daniel Norris
9 CF Jake Marisnick
10 SP Nestor Molina
11 SP Justin Nicolino
12 1B Mike McDade
13 SP Noah Syndergaard
14 SP Joel Carreno
15 LF Marcus Knecht
16 RF Moises Sierra
17 C A.J. Jiminez
18 C Carlos Perez
19 RP Alan Farina
20 RP Matt Wright

Honourable mention to Chad Jenkins, Aaron Sanchez, Asher Wojciechowski

supermatt1331
08-18-2011, 11:37 AM
Stlll dont understand why people dont have Molina higher up... guy has a ERA of 2.52 and a 8.2:1 K:BB ratio in A/AA and its his first year as a starter. He also has had a history of putting up good numbers as a reliever in previous years.

I think it's because he has seemingly come out of nowhere to be dominant. Again, I mentioned a couple times that because his stuff wasn't as good as others I ranked him lower. Apparently his fastball sits around 90 MPH, it's tough to succeed with a below average fastball unless you have pinpoint command. Not saying he won't succeed, but guys with better stuff have to be ranked higher, such as Drew Hutchison whos been topping out around 93 now.

supermatt1331
08-18-2011, 11:39 AM
Posted this on the Jays board too but thought I'd lend my two cents here as well

1 3B Brett Lawrie
2 C Travis d'Arnaud
3 SP Deck McGuire
4 SS Adeiny Hechavarria
5 CF Anthony Gose
6 SP Henderson Alvarez
7 SP Drew Hutchinson
8 SP Daniel Norris
9 CF Jake Marisnick
10 SP Nestor Molina
11 SP Justin Nicolino
12 1B Mike McDade
13 SP Noah Syndergaard
14 SP Joel Carreno
15 LF Marcus Knecht
16 RF Moises Sierra
17 C A.J. Jiminez
18 C Carlos Perez
19 RP Alan Farina
20 SP Matt Wright

Honourable mention to Chad Jenkins, Aaron Sanchez, Asher Wojciechowski

A solid list, but Farina and Wright should definitely be removed in favour of Jenkins and Sanchez. I'm also a bit surprised that you left Michael Crouse off the top 20, especially considering you have Marcus Knecht ranked 15th. McDade and Hechavarria are probably ranked too high as well.

BlueJaysLee
08-18-2011, 01:03 PM
Crouse just doesn't impress me much. He took 3 seasons to move past the GCL and he's slowly working on Low A ball in Lansing. He's already struck out over 100 times this season, clear over 30% K rate.

McDade I can see moving down a few spots, and a lot of people seem to still love Sanchez' ceiling, but I'm more about progression and production.

Matt Wright is a sleeper. He's solid each season at every stop. You'll see him move quickly, I'm confident in that assessment. Thanks for your feedback though, I appreciate it.

Dol-Fan
08-18-2011, 01:13 PM
Crouse just doesn't impress me much. He took 3 seasons to move past the GCL and he's slowly working on Low A ball in Lansing. He's already struck out over 100 times this season, clear over 30% K rate.

McDade I can see moving down a few spots, and a lot of people seem to still love Sanchez' ceiling, but I'm more about progression and production.

Matt Wright is a sleeper. He's solid each season at every stop. You'll see him move quickly, I'm confident in that assessment. Thanks for your feedback though, I appreciate it.

If you knock Crouse for those flaws, why not McDade? His K rate is pushing 30% (actually worse K rate than Crouses, who is NOT over 30%, but 26.7%) and has a far worse walk rate than does Crouse.

supermatt1331
08-18-2011, 01:28 PM
Matt Wright is a sleeper. He's solid each season at every stop. You'll see him move quickly, I'm confident in that assessment. Thanks for your feedback though, I appreciate it.

I hope Wright turns out to be a solid reliever for the Jays, we definitely need help in the bullpen right now. My concern is that he is 24 years old pitching in Dunedin. He SHOULD be pitching well considering he's 2-3 years older than most of the real prospects down there.

BlueJaysLee
08-18-2011, 01:53 PM
I think both of us had the K% wrong for both Crouse and McDade. As I reworked the numbers we have;

Crouse: K% / BB%
2010: 31.6 / 10.9
2011: 26.7 / 9.6

McDade: K% / BB%
2010: 27.3 / 5.2
2011: 20.8 / 5.0

So I was clearly wrong by saying Crouse was over 30% but McDade is still striking out less than Crouse. Crouse does have a better walk rate though.

Dol-Fan
08-18-2011, 01:56 PM
Funny, you were looking at Crouse's 2010 K rate, I was looking at McDade's 2010 K rate. Whoops.

supermatt1331
08-18-2011, 02:06 PM
I think both of us had the K% wrong for both Crouse and McDade. As I reworked the numbers we have;

Crouse: K% / BB%
2010: 31.6 / 10.9
2011: 26.7 / 9.6

McDade: K% / BB%
2010: 27.3 / 5.2
2011: 20.8 / 5.0

So I was clearly wrong by saying Crouse was over 30% but McDade is still striking out less than Crouse. Crouse does have a better walk rate though.

I would definitely consider Crouse to be the much better prospect, even if he strikes out more. His walk rate is considerably better, he has infinitely more speed and plays a more valuable position.

Dol-Fan
08-18-2011, 02:12 PM
I would definitely consider Crouse to be the much better prospect, even if he strikes out more. His walk rate is considerably better, he has infinitely more speed and plays a more valuable position.

No doubt. McDade's .813 OPS in AA just does not fly for a legitimate first base prospect.

bomber0104
08-18-2011, 02:24 PM
Solid List.. A few things I dont agree with

-Hutchison should be higher on the list considering he is gonna be a boarderline top 50 prospect when the rankings come out. You could make an argument for all the players above him except for Mcguire. He should definitely be higher than him.

- AJ Jimenez is way too high on the list at 12 especially considering you don't have Perez. I would put him and Perez in the 15-20 range with Perez being higher.

- I think Molina should be higher than 16 and definitely over a guy like Jimenez and Jenkins

- Sierra and Taylor replace McDade and Thames (not a prospect) for me

supermatt1331
08-18-2011, 02:47 PM
Solid List.. A few things I dont agree with

-Hutchison should be higher on the list considering he is gonna be a boarderline top 50 prospect when the rankings come out. You could make an argument for all the players above him except for Mcguire. He should definitely be higher than him.

- AJ Jimenez is way too high on the list at 12 especially considering you don't have Perez. I would put him and Perez in the 15-20 range with Perez being higher.

- I think Molina should be higher than 16 and definitely over a guy like Jimenez and Jenkins

- Sierra and Taylor replace McDade and Thames (not a prospect) for me

Definitely love the debate.

In regards to Hutchison, McGuire was drafted 11th overall last year. He pitched very well in Dunedin in his 1st stint in pro ball and is already in AA. He's more advanced and was obviously more highly touted. Hutchison kind of flew under the radar and has played with a lot less pressure. I think they're both very good, but as of right now, I'd venture to guess that McGuire is more likely to succeed at the big league level.

I mentioned the Jimenez vs Perez debate earlier. I'm a big fan of both, but Jimenez has clearly outperformed Perez at a higher level and they're the same age. Jimenez's speed also makes him more valuable on the basepaths and has thrown runners out a higher rate than Perez. I'm not writing Perez off, I just feel Jimemez is closer to being ready.

People seem to be really down on Jenkins. Sure he hasn't been dominant, but he's definitely been solid so far in his 50 career pro starts. He's improved virtually every stat across the board this year while pitching at a higher level. He's only given up 20 HR's in 290 IP in the minors and has a great groundball rate. He his what he is, a durable innings eater who will be a #5 starter in the bigs. Definite value and morely likely to succeed then guys in the lower minors. Look at Ricky Romero. His career minor league stats are dreadful, but he put it all together. Highly touted with great ability. Jenkins was drafted where he was for a reason. He's the type of pitcher that has proven to be effective in the Majors.

Dol-Fan
08-18-2011, 02:50 PM
Supermatt, you've inspired me to waste time at work and make my own top prospects list. I'm going to do a top 25, though, and am taking a bit of a different spin on it than most prospect lists. We'll see how it goes.

supermatt1331
08-18-2011, 02:54 PM
Supermatt, you've inspired me to waste time at work and make my own top prospects list. I'm going to do a top 25, though, and am taking a bit of a different spin on it than most prospect lists. We'll see how it goes.

Haha I'm glad I've given you the inspiration you need. I look forward to seeing what you come up with.

Krylian
08-18-2011, 03:41 PM
Crouse just doesn't impress me much. He took 3 seasons to move past the GCL and he's slowly working on Low A ball in Lansing. He's already struck out over 100 times this season, clear over 30% K rate.

McDade I can see moving down a few spots, and a lot of people seem to still love Sanchez' ceiling, but I'm more about progression and production.

Matt Wright is a sleeper. He's solid each season at every stop. You'll see him move quickly, I'm confident in that assessment. Thanks for your feedback though, I appreciate it.

Matt Wright is a 5'10", 24 year old LHP in A-ball. He wouldn't even crack my Top 50.

Everyone has different criteria and weighs things differently. I place a good deal of emphasis on upside and potential and not really on how soon they'll be here. Cooper could be here soon but he's nowhere near that prospect that Marisnick is.

lmallia
08-18-2011, 03:48 PM
Matt Wright is a 5'10", 24 year old LHP in A-ball. He wouldn't even crack my Top 50.

Everyone has different criteria and weighs things differently. I place a good deal of emphasis on upside and potential and not really on how soon they'll be here. Cooper could be here soon but he's nowhere near that prospect that Marisnick is.

Keep saying his name people, I love it everytime!

Follows me on twitter too, so that excites me haha (yes Im sure he follows everyone).

FlakeyFool
08-18-2011, 04:06 PM
Isn't casey lawerence doing quite well lately?

supermatt1331
08-18-2011, 04:24 PM
Isn't casey lawerence doing quite well lately?

His older age combined with the fact that he's only in A ball makes his performance irrelevent. He's a non-prospect at this point.

town123
08-18-2011, 05:58 PM
Keep saying his name people, I love it everytime!

Follows me on twitter too, so that excites me haha (yes Im sure he follows everyone).

Marisnick is a stud. If you haven't had the chance to see him play, take a road trip to Lansing. It's really not that far and you'll probably be impressed with a few other players and the park is great. After this he's off to Dunedin..... so catch him while you can!

Toxeryll
08-18-2011, 08:53 PM
People seem to be really down on Jenkins. Sure he hasn't been dominant, but he's definitely been solid so far in his 50 career pro starts. He's improved virtually every stat across the board this year while pitching at a higher level. He's only given up 20 HR's in 290 IP in the minors and has a great groundball rate. He his what he is, a durable innings eater who will be a #5 starter in the bigs. Definite value and morely likely to succeed then guys in the lower minors. Look at Ricky Romero. His career minor league stats are dreadful, but he put it all together. Highly touted with great ability. Jenkins was drafted where he was for a reason. He's the type of pitcher that has proven to be effective in the Majors.

For me, Jenkins will be a reliever if he gets to the big leagues. Like most groundball pitchers, he struggles against lefties. I mean he can be dominant against righties with 2.91 FIP and 7.18 K/9. But against lefties, he has a 4.22 FIP and a 4.64 K/9. He also walks a higher percentage of lefties than righties. That to me is a pitcher in mould of Shawn Camp. The only way he can be an effective starter in the big leagues is if he improves his changeup to neutralize lefties.

Krylian
08-18-2011, 10:45 PM
For me, Jenkins will be a reliever if he gets to the big leagues. Like most groundball pitchers, he struggles against lefties. I mean he can be dominant against righties with 2.91 FIP and 7.18 K/9. But against lefties, he has a 4.22 FIP and a 4.64 K/9. He also walks a higher percentage of lefties than righties. That to me is a pitcher in mould of Shawn Camp. The only way he can be an effective starter in the big leagues is if he improves his changeup to neutralize lefties.

He's not a high ceiling guy to me...and I agree that I think he could end up in the pen...and there's nothing wrong with that at all. There are a lot of important roles that need to be filled in the pen; and if you can find yourself a big strong kid with a good hard sinker that can come in there and get a key ground ball when you really need one, or come in and pitch 2-3 innings when your starter is battling and out early, then there is certainly value in that.

Billyen
08-19-2011, 12:31 AM
In terms of "untouchables" I would definitely say Lawrie and D'arnaud would have to be considered for that list. D'arnaud's value is through the roof and obviously Lawrie looks to be the star the Jays have been searching for. Everyone else in the system can be had for the right price.

Sorry...when I said "untouchables"...I meant from other teams. I believe AA can get anybody he wants this off season.

Lawrie is not going anywhere for the next 10 years.

BlueJaysFan
08-19-2011, 12:34 AM
Sorry...when I said "untouchables"...I meant from other teams. I believe AA can get anybody he wants this off season.

Lawrie is not going anywhere for the next 10 years.

Id say till he retires

Billyen
08-19-2011, 01:53 AM
I also like how this thread is being debated. No ones threatening each other and saying "that's not what I said!"... "Those aren't the right stats to value him correctly!"

Nice and civil. 8-)

ChongInc.
08-19-2011, 03:59 AM
Very well done.
I would take Thames off because I don't see him going to the minors, won't do him any good, but Drabek I still see as a prospect.
I'm really hoping some of these position players from the most recent draft make it.

ChongInc.
08-19-2011, 04:02 AM
I would rather have Cooper than Brett Wallace lol. Honestly.

supermatt1331
08-19-2011, 09:06 AM
He's not a high ceiling guy to me...and I agree that I think he could end up in the pen...and there's nothing wrong with that at all. There are a lot of important roles that need to be filled in the pen; and if you can find yourself a big strong kid with a good hard sinker that can come in there and get a key ground ball when you really need one, or come in and pitch 2-3 innings when your starter is battling and out early, then there is certainly value in that.

In terms of ceiling, I agree, it's not overly high. That's why I've mentioned he looks to be a #5 starter. However, his ceiling might be low, but his projectibility is high. You can almost say for certain that he's going to be a big leaguer in some capacity, whether back of rotation starter or solid reliever. That's why he's present on my list. You don't draft a 6'4 240Lbs sinkerball throwing starting pitcher in the 1st Rd if you don't plan to start him. With the pitching depth in the farm, we could easily see him in a trade package or moved to the pen though. We'll see what happens.

supermatt1331
08-19-2011, 09:10 AM
For me, Jenkins will be a reliever if he gets to the big leagues. Like most groundball pitchers, he struggles against lefties. I mean he can be dominant against righties with 2.91 FIP and 7.18 K/9. But against lefties, he has a 4.22 FIP and a 4.64 K/9. He also walks a higher percentage of lefties than righties. That to me is a pitcher in mould of Shawn Camp. The only way he can be an effective starter in the big leagues is if he improves his changeup to neutralize lefties.

I don't think he projects well as a reliever anyways. I'd rather have a starter who doesn't strikeout too many guys rather than a reliever. Pitchers who pitch to contact are better as starters due to quicker outs, resulting in longer outings, which than allows the bullpen to stay fresh. Plus solid relievers tend to come into the game in high pressure situations (runners on base or risp). In these situations, being able to get the K is imperative. If Jenkins plans on being a solid big leaguer, its almost guaranteed to be in a starting role because of his skillset.