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View Full Version : What kind of player is Colby Rasmus??



nithanyo
08-04-2011, 05:37 PM
Im really confused with this guy. Ive heard that he is a power guy, a guy that hits for average, he gets on base alot(which seems unanimous) and a gold glove candidate.

Then I've heard reports which claim he will top out at 25 jacks, .260 average and people on this forum have said his defence is his biggest weakness.

Can i expect a vernon wells type player from this guy or am i setting my hopes too high? BTW a 25 year old vernon had gold glove defence and put out 30 jacks with 100 rbi

StayOnBoard
08-04-2011, 05:48 PM
Probably .280, 25 jacks, 90 rbis', 25 steals with above average defense in center.

craigerlee
08-04-2011, 06:32 PM
I think when they talk about his power and average they mean it relative to the fact he's a CF. You put him in LF and he's got the potential to be a well above average player, you put him in CF and he's a potential superstar. I think his bad defence the last 2 seasons is mostly to do with a lack of effort because he wasn't happy in STL. I think he's an above average defender.

GNick
08-04-2011, 06:52 PM
Rasmus will hit in the ,260s, on base percentage around .330ish. With 25 homerurns, 75 RBIs - his career average is 21 and 66 which will go up but with his high K ratio not lights out higher.

Bill James Handbook has Rasmus rated 14th defensively among major league centerfielders. Which is average, his range ranked 2.13, which is low compared to a Bourne or Gutierrez which is around 2.90. His +/- is -7, a cause for concern. Compared Austin Jackson who's PM is +33. Rasmus is +3 in homers saved and +2 in throws which are good signs. Overall he is average in centerfield.

Dol-Fan
08-04-2011, 07:12 PM
Rasmus will hit in the ,260s, on base percentage around .330ish. With 25 homerurns, 75 RBIs - his career average is 21 and 66 which will go up but with his high K ratio not lights out higher.

Bill James Handbook has Rasmus rated 14th defensively among major league centerfielders. Which is average, his range ranked 2.13, which is low compared to a Bourne or Gutierrez which is around 2.90. His +/- is -7, a cause for concern. Compared Austin Jackson who's PM is +33. Rasmus is +3 in homers saved and +2 in throws which are good signs. Overall he is average in centerfield.

so you don't think he can build on his .276/.361/.498, 23 HR season at 23 years old?

North Yorker
08-04-2011, 07:21 PM
so you don't think he can build on his .276/.361/.498, 23 HR season at 23 years old?

Makes sense. These are the same people that think Snider peaked at age 23 too.

JaysFan87
08-05-2011, 01:04 AM
Im really confused with this guy. Ive heard that he is a power guy, a guy that hits for average, he gets on base alot(which seems unanimous) and a gold glove candidate.

Then I've heard reports which claim he will top out at 25 jacks, .260 average and people on this forum have said his defence is his biggest weakness.

Can i expect a vernon wells type player from this guy or am i setting my hopes too high? BTW a 25 year old vernon had gold glove defence and put out 30 jacks with 100 rbi


He has alot better plate discipline than what Wells ever had an although he does K more than Wells, throughout his minor league career Rasmus has been below 20% while having a BB% in the low to mid teens which translates very well in the Majors. I see alot more season like last year with potential for more pop. All in all I think he will be a better all-round player than Wells was (see 5 tool player).

JaysFan87
08-05-2011, 01:09 AM
Rasmus will hit in the ,260s, on base percentage around .330ish. With 25 homerurns, 75 RBIs - his career average is 21 and 66 which will go up but with his high K ratio not lights out higher.

Bill James Handbook has Rasmus rated 14th defensively among major league centerfielders. Which is average, his range ranked 2.13, which is low compared to a Bourne or Gutierrez which is around 2.90. His +/- is -7, a cause for concern. Compared Austin Jackson who's PM is +33. Rasmus is +3 in homers saved and +2 in throws which are good signs. Overall he is average in centerfield.

You failed to mention that with a BB% of low to mid teens it would be impossible to have a .330 OBP witha .260 avg. If he does end up hitting .260 then his OBP would be north of .360 which is awesome. I would be extremely happy a 260-270 avg as his OBP would be .370~ and hoping his power continues to improve the jays are looking at a very very good CF. At a very very low cost.

statquo
08-05-2011, 01:38 AM
I assuming he should be a Jayson Werth-type player. Good at everything in his prime? Running, contact, power, defense, stealing....

Dol-Fan
08-05-2011, 10:07 AM
Makes sense. These are the same people that think Snider peaked at age 23 too.


You failed to mention that with a BB% of low to mid teens it would be impossible to have a .330 OBP witha .260 avg. If he does end up hitting .260 then his OBP would be north of .360 which is awesome. I would be extremely happy a 260-270 avg as his OBP would be .370~ and hoping his power continues to improve the jays are looking at a very very good CF. At a very very low cost.

don't you just love well thought out posts?

KaiserSose
08-05-2011, 10:48 AM
You failed to mention that with a BB% of low to mid teens it would be impossible to have a .330 OBP witha .260 avg. If he does end up hitting .260 then his OBP would be north of .360 which is awesome. I would be extremely happy a 260-270 avg as his OBP would be .370~ and hoping his power continues to improve the jays are looking at a very very good CF. At a very very low cost.

I don't think it is fair to assume his BB% will be mid teens but it seems like 11-12% is reasonable from his last couple years. I wouldn't be surprised with 0.265 average and 0.360 OBP

Let us not forget he is supposed to be a pretty terrific base runner.

rapsjaysfan88
08-05-2011, 12:59 PM
people putting snider in the same boat as rasmus are nuts. rasmus has much better plate discpline, and a beatiful swing. snider, not so much..

Nick O
08-05-2011, 01:02 PM
i see him hitting in a .250 to .270 range...... possibly a 20/20 guy?? maybe 15/15 :P ... anyway he will be a good player.....

Jay
08-05-2011, 01:07 PM
Alex Rios.
.
.
.
Just kidding.

13Lawrie13
08-05-2011, 01:13 PM
i see him hitting in a .250 to .270 range...... possibly a 20/20 guy?? maybe 15/15 :P ... anyway he will be a good player.....

Well, he's already hit 23 homers, so 25 shouldn't be out of reach. He also has plus speed, but he hasn't been given the chance run to this point, but I can see 20-25 steals in his future.

With the strikeout rate your batting average guess seems realistic. With this walk-rates though, he should be able to post a OBP of .350+ (depending on his batting average).

Couple that with his defense, and the fact he plays a premium position, and you've got a pretty good player. Of course, this is if he pans out.

McJoe
08-05-2011, 01:56 PM
Rasmus still projects as a 5-tool player. He turns 25 next Thursday, he's not done improving. You can't judge him on his 6 or 7 games in Toronto or whatever it is. He hit .276 with 23 homers last season and he's going to improve on those numbers.

I see him settling around the .285 range long term which with his walk rate should put his OBP somewhere in the .380-.395 range which would be fantastic. He should hit at least 25 home runs a season since he's already hit 23 in only 464 ABs and he's only 24 years old. Those 23 homers would've been on pace for more like 27 with 550+ ABs. Last year a lot of guys who played 160+ games had 600+ ABs, I used 550 to get to 27 homers. I don't think he has the speed that some guys above mentioned but he could be in the 10-15 steal range. He had 12 2 years ago but got caught 8 times. He had 18 in AA at age 20. He's probably more in the 10 ish range. He has better first-to-third speed than stolen base speed. Has 6 triples this season, had 8 split between A and A+ in 06. If you've watched him since he's been here, you'll know he also has a cannon in center field. A better arm than Vernon could have ever dreamed of. Vernon may have been better defensively and possibly range wise but Rasmus has a better arm. He'll get more assists. He's already got 4 this year before coming here.

This is of course largely contingent on him fitting here. Based on his last 2 seasons in St. Louis, we have seen that he is a little bit of a head case. Part of me wants to predict those numbers but see him bouncing around a little bit. Like a less severe Milton Bradley. He needs a mentor type. A full season in Toronto next year and he's gonna show you what he's worth.

Dol-Fan
08-05-2011, 02:00 PM
This is of course largely contingent on him fitting here. Based on his last 2 seasons in St. Louis, we have seen that he is a little bit of a head case. Part of me wants to predict those numbers but see him bouncing around a little bit. Like a less severe Milton Bradley. He needs a mentor type. A full season in Toronto next year and he's gonna show you what he's worth.

Be careful, people around here will take that comparison far too literally. I know you just meant it in terms of inconsistency season-to-season, but Milton Bradley was/is a straight-up douchebag, and that is the way several people on this board will interpret the comparison. Colby Rasmus is a shy papa's boy who (by reputation) won't stray from his daddy's advice. That is what got him in hot water in STL, not being an *******.

I agree with you in general, though. Your projections might be a little generous, but based on what he did as a 23 year old, the numbers you suggested are entirely possible.