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ILDD
07-26-2011, 12:00 PM
This is something that I posted in the trade thread but I actually did some research on it and I thought I’d back up this claim here.


As a starting point I have made these assumptions:
1. Being a contender does not mean challenging for the division, it means challenging for the playoffs via the Wild Card.
2. The Yankees are my bench mark of challenging as they currently sit in possession of the Wild Card, if you can match them then you are challenging.
3. To determine the “quality” of a player I’ve used OPS for hitters and WHIP for pitchers.

I worked out the average OPS of the hitters that Yankees have this year (only top 9) and the WHIP of the top 5 starting pitchers, this gives an OPS of 0.789 and a WHIP of 1.293. If the Jays can match this then you will have a similarly talented club and should be in contention.

The move that I’d make is to go and get Michael Bourn from Houston. Bourn would cost at least Zach Stewart plus a promising prospect like Deck McGuire or Chad Jenkins but if that’s the price I’d pay it. Bourn only has 2012 under team control then he’s a free agent and represented by Boras so he’ll want to test the FA market and get a long term high money contract. This might not be such a bad thing, there isn’t a lot of money committed going forward. Also, AA could work his magic and get him to sign a 3 year contract with a club option, but in any case the 2012 line-up looks like this.

1 CF Bourn (L)
2 SS Escobar (R)
3 RF Bautista (R)
4 1B Lind (L)
5 DH Encarnacion/Thames (R/L)
6 LF Snider (L)
7 3B Lawrie (R)
8 C Arencibia (R)
9 2B Hill (R)

Taking this years’ OPS numbers (inserting Lawrie with an OPS of 0.78 and averaging EE and Thames as a DH platoon) gives an average of 0.789 – exactly the same as Yankees this year. I left Aaron Hill in at 0.587, Snider at 0.661 and EE at his current poor level and din't take into account the platoon splits for EE and Thames. You could argue that these all underestimate the figures but I'm also thinking that Bautista is likely to regress, Thames’ is unsustainable and I may have been optimistic on Lawrie, these probably balance out.

This, given my assumptions, means that next year the Blue Jays’ offence should be similar in terms of production to Yankees this year.

Looking at the rotation, if we assume no significant move, just Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Villanueva & Litsch performing exactly as they have this year gives a WHIP of 1.300. Again, you could argue that Villanueva could regress but also that Cecil and Litsch are likely to improve, balancing each other out. This 1.300 compares pretty nicely to Yankees’ 1.293, the increase translates to 10 extra hits/walks in the year – pretty negligible.

Again with my assumptions, the pitching should be comparable to Yankees’ this year.

So if you have the same hitting and pitching, why shouldn’t we assume the same results? Most will notice I have ignored the bullpen, this is so volatile that I don’t have any faith in year to year numbers and also it also a much lower impact on the teams results than hitting and pitching (but if you’re interested, Blue Jays’ RP WHIP is 1.28 vs Yankees 1.31). I’ve also ignored fielding as I don’t have much faith in these stats either but my eyes tell me that both teams would be pretty similar with the exception of Jeter vs Escobar. Also no mention of the bench, again this is a small impact on the overall record.

As an little bit of a twist, I also think that Bud Selig may expand the play-offs to include another Wild Card, making it more likely than ever.

In my mind at least, we may be one player away from contending and that player is available at a price that we can afford, perfect time to start going for it.

bomber0104
07-26-2011, 12:15 PM
I'm afraid thats not how things work.. if they do, then why are we not having a similar season to the Yankees if the numbers matchup that closely. There are a lot of factors that come into play.

Something as simple as having Rivera closing games has probably led to a difference of at least 5 games this year.

You also have to factor in playing at home in front of 45 000 fans every game over the 15 000 we get to see

North Yorker
07-26-2011, 12:16 PM
Position player wise: Instead of giving up specs for a guy like Bourn why not just let Hill walk and offer Phillips $10-11M a year to be our 2B for the next 4 years or so?

Personally I think a team is gonna overpay for Bourn at the deadline and I doubt it will be us, although I wouldnt hate it.

I think Phillips' impact would be similar to Bourn's except we can get him with money instead of specs, which we have plenty of anyway.

Pitching wise: I think we have enough arms close to ML ready that we dont have to go out and another SP, but a CL is a must. I would offer CLE a nice spec for Pestano.

You add Pestano and Phillips to the mix next year with another possible WC along with Lawrie and I say we would be true playoff contenders.

lmallia
07-26-2011, 12:16 PM
I think there's way more variables that WHIP and OPS personally, but I understand what you're saying.. I just look at this team and dont think we're one person away.. Does Bourn on this team increase us by 10-12 wins at this point in the season? Not a chance..

ILDD
07-26-2011, 12:23 PM
I'm afraid thats not how things work.. if they do, then why are we not having a similar season to the Yankees if the numbers matchup that closely. There are a lot of factors that come into play.

Something as simple as having Rivera closing games has probably led to a difference of at least 5 games this year.

You also have to factor in playing at home in front of 45 000 fans every game over the 15 000 we get to see

Because Davis has been playing a significant amount and I've removed his 0.617 OPS and replaced with Bourn's 0.760. I've also removed Reyes' 1.59 from the rotation and replaced him with Litsch at 1.42.

ILDD
07-26-2011, 12:25 PM
I think there's way more variables that WHIP and OPS personally, but I understand what you're saying.. I just look at this team and dont think we're one person away.. Does Bourn on this team increase us by 10-12 wins at this point in the season? Not a chance..

Not just Bourn, Lawrie is coming too plus Reyes isn't here any more. Do those 3 makes enough of a difference - maybe.

2009mvp
07-26-2011, 12:28 PM
Find another Bautista and sure, they're contenders. Otherwise, not even close.

Twitchy
07-26-2011, 12:30 PM
Not withstanding that those probably aren't the best ways to evaluate players...

The Jays are:

2 SP's, a 2B, a CF, possibly a LF/DH, and a few bullpen arms away from competing.

That's pretty much the bare minimum. At this point the only spots I'm confident in are SP 1 & 2, RF, 1B, SS and maybe 3B when Lawrie is here. I'm not 100% sure on C either.

ILDD
07-26-2011, 12:37 PM
Not withstanding that those probably aren't the best ways to evaluate players...

The Jays are:

2 SP's, a 2B, a CF, possibly a LF/DH, and a few bullpen arms away from competing.

That's pretty much the bare minimum. At this point the only spots I'm confident in are SP 1 & 2, RF, 1B, SS and maybe 3B when Lawrie is here. I'm not 100% sure on C either.

Point taken but how confident are you in Yankees line-up this year? Russell Martin at C? Jorge Posada at DH? Jeter at SS? All these are question marks but they're still in contention. Eduardo Nunez has played significant time for them this year and I still see NYY in the Wild Card position.

After Sabathia they have Burnett, Colon, Garcia etc. Do these inspire any more confidence than Morrow, Cecil and Litsch?

That's what I'm saying - we are much closer to the Yankees than people think and that puts us in contention. Not that we are close to a perfect team that has a good chance of a World Series.

2009mvp
07-26-2011, 12:41 PM
^^Way to fail to mention Tex, Cano, Granderson, A-Rod and Gardner, all of whom are more productive than anyone on the Jays' roster not named Jose.

Bombtista
07-26-2011, 12:50 PM
The Yankees are on the decline at this point with Jeter, Posada, Rodriguez, Swisher, Colon, Garcia and Burnett are all not to get any better at this point in their career.

The Yanks are obviously a team that is going to go out and sign players as they need them but at this point we appear to have a team almost as impressive as them.

17 blown saves is just despicable. you have to expect some blown saves and all elite teams in the league have an elite ace to go with that who blows maybe 5 games a year. If we were able to get a Heath Bell sort of player we could have as much as 15 more wins a season.

If Housten would trade Bourn for as little as Stewart+ prospects im sure AA will be on that

ILDD
07-26-2011, 12:54 PM
^^Way to fail to mention Tex, Cano, Granderson, A-Rod and Gardner, all of whom are more productive than anyone on the Jays' roster not named Jose.

OK, I'll mention them. Gardner is only 0.773, comparable to Bourn this year @ 0.761. Tex is 0.834, camparable to Escobar @ 0.829. Cano is at 0.849, Lind @ 0.842. Jays have Bautista and Lawrie vs. Granderson and A-Rod and the average is far in favour of Jays here.

All the players you mention are having decent seasons but they stack up against Bautista, Lind, Escobar plus Bourn and Lawrie next season.

Yes, I know I'm only using OPS, I just chose that as it seems to stack up well against performance in my opinion.

2009mvp
07-26-2011, 12:57 PM
The Yankees are on the decline at this point with Jeter, Posada, Rodriguez, Swisher, Colon, Garcia and Burnett are all not to get any better at this point in their career.

The Yanks are obviously a team that is going to go out and sign players as they need them but at this point we appear to have a team almost as impressive as them.

17 blown saves is just despicable. you have to expect some blown saves and all elite teams in the league have an elite ace to go with that who blows maybe 5 games a year. If we were able to get a Heath Bell sort of player we could have as much as 15 more wins a season.

If Housten would trade Bourn for as little as Stewart+ prospects im sure AA will be on that


Blown saves is such a ****ty stat, I'm so sick of people talking about them. You know who has the best bullpen in baseball? The Braves. You know how many blown saves they have? 15.

Bombtista
07-26-2011, 12:59 PM
^^Way to fail to mention Tex, Cano, Granderson, A-Rod and Gardner, all of whom are more productive than anyone on the Jays' roster not named Jose.

As if Teixera is more productive than anyone on the Jays - Jose. His only impressive stat is the RBI production and when you play for the yankees you get like 2 or 3 RBI plate appearances a game compared to a guy like Lind or Escobar who aren't that fortunate.

Still he only has 20 more RBI's than Lind with 75 AB's on him. Not to mention his average is 45-50 points lower than Lind's.

As for Escobar, he is ahead of Brett Gardener is every offensive category minus stolen bases

Bombtista
07-26-2011, 01:02 PM
Blown saves is such a ****ty stat, I'm so sick of people talking about them. You know who has the best bullpen in baseball? The Braves. You know how many blown saves they have? 15.

15 extra wins is admittedly very generous but the Braves do have an elite bullpin. We have Francisco, Rauch blowing saves almost every time they have a chance.

Also the Braves have needed their closer a hell of a lot more than we have since they are actually having a winning season to the increase in blow saves over us makes sense

JMac4PM
07-26-2011, 01:07 PM
how come people keep slotting Escobar into the 2 hole and pushing Thames down? I think Thames is the perfect fit for batting in the 2 hole infront of Bautista. If we get a good lead off batter I'd keep Thames 2 and move Escobar near the end of the line up.

Lead off man CF
Thames DH
Bautista RF
Lind 1B
Lawrie 3B
Snider LF
Hill 2B
Arencibia C
Escobar SS

Escobar will kinda be like a 2nd lead off man and another good table setter for the meat of the order.

2009mvp
07-26-2011, 01:13 PM
As if Teixera is more productive than anyone on the Jays - Jose. His only impressive stat is the RBI production and when you play for the yankees you get like 2 or 3 RBI plate appearances a game compared to a guy like Lind or Escobar who aren't that fortunate.

Still he only has 20 more RBI's than Lind with 75 AB's on him. Not to mention his average is 45-50 points lower than Lind's.

It's 2011, no one cares about RBI's/BA. His OBP (the lowest of his career, BTW) is still higher than Lind's. They're actually incredibly similar this year, but going forward I can't imagine anyone who'd bet on Lind over Tex.


As for Escobar, he is ahead of Brett Gardener is every offensive category minus stolen bases

I did fail to mention Escobar, he and Jose are really the only two everyday players I'd feel comfortable starting on a contender.


15 extra wins is admittedly very generous but the Braves do have an elite bullpin. We have Francisco, Rauch blowing saves almost every time they have a chance.

Also the Braves have needed their closer a hell of a lot more than we have since they are actually having a winning season to the increase in blow saves over us makes sense

Clearly you misunderstand blown saves. A blown save doesn't just happen in the 9th against your closer, it could theoretically happen in the first inning. If you wanna look at all the stats available the Jays' pen has been thoroughly average this year.

Dol-Fan
07-26-2011, 01:23 PM
As if Teixera is more productive than anyone on the Jays - Jose. His only impressive stat is the RBI production and when you play for the yankees you get like 2 or 3 RBI plate appearances a game compared to a guy like Lind or Escobar who aren't that fortunate.

Still he only has 20 more RBI's than Lind with 75 AB's on him. Not to mention his average is 45-50 points lower than Lind's.

As for Escobar, he is ahead of Brett Gardener is every offensive category minus stolen bases

Uhhh...HR? OBP? OPS?

His BABIP is ridiculously low compared to his career average. He'll start getting some luck again soon, and you'll see that BA, OBP, and OPS start going up. His OPS is already higher than anyone on this team not named Bautista or Thames.

Unreal homer post. Wow.


15 extra wins is admittedly very generous but the Braves do have an elite bullpin. We have Francisco, Rauch blowing saves almost every time they have a chance.

Also the Braves have needed their closer a hell of a lot more than we have since they are actually having a winning season to the increase in blow saves over us makes sense

15 BS does not equal 15 losses.

And can you stop saying bullpin? Maybe I'm being anal but it's really annoying.

bomber0104
07-26-2011, 01:26 PM
I have a feeling that not a lot of people understand what a blown save means...

a blown save is given everytime a pitcher comes into the game in what could possibly be a save situation and ends up losing the lead.. that means if a pitcher comes into the 7th inning with any kind of lead and ends up blowing it.. he is given a blown save since the pitcher has the chance of earning the save if he goes 3 innings...

a team can actually have more than 1 blown save in a single game

Bombtista
07-26-2011, 01:28 PM
Clearly you misunderstand blown saves. A blown save doesn't just happen in the 9th against your closer, it could theoretically happen in the first inning. If you wanna look at all the stats available the Jays' pen has been thoroughly average this year.

Oh lol well your right i assumed blown saves only accounted for the 9th as youre only eligable for the save when you close out the 9th. still we need to improve our closers role in the BULLPEN ;)

leafswin2011
07-26-2011, 01:45 PM
i dont think we are only 1 player away i think we are about a starting pitcher,a great closer,and jose reyes away from being in the wildcard spot.i really believe if we had a great closer that our young pitchers could depend on they would produce alot better,i dont know that but thats my opinion.if you have reyes as your leadoff batter who can steal bases your going to have first base open ALOT for bautista who is probably then going to get walked and then you have chances at big innings instead of hoping for 1 of bautista or lind to score all the runs...finally i think you need an ace in there or at least a guy who can win you 15 games.not to mention im reallllly hoping lawrie will be a HUGE step up from who we had starting third base this year nix.oh ya and please sign prince as our DH lol.

Twitchy
07-26-2011, 01:56 PM
Point taken but how confident are you in Yankees line-up this year? Russell Martin at C? Jorge Posada at DH? Jeter at SS? All these are question marks but they're still in contention. Eduardo Nunez has played significant time for them this year and I still see NYY in the Wild Card position.

Right, but your thread is on 2012. Posada won't be DHing, which means they'll find a big bat. Next year they might add Montero to catch, or just find someone in free agency if not Martin.

Yeah, Jeter's a liability, but AL SS's aren't that impressive to begin with.

Their lineup is still outstanding. Cano, Rodriguez, Tex, Granderson & Gardner is a very strong core, and those guys aren't going anywhere anytime soon.


After Sabathia they have Burnett, Colon, Garcia etc. Do these inspire any more confidence than Morrow, Cecil and Litsch?


Not particularly, but I wouldn't expect them to have that rotation next year either. Even if CC opts out the Yanks will remain the top bidders, and they'll have their pick in FA or one of their promising SP prospects.


That's what I'm saying - we are much closer to the Yankees than people think and that puts us in contention. Not that we are close to a perfect team that has a good chance of a World Series.

No, we're really not.

C - Martin's outproduced Arencibia so I have to go with the Yanks here.

1B - Push. Worth noting Tex is hitting for more power and walking more so if he pushes the BA up it's a Yanks edge.

2B - Yanks in a landslide. Difference between here and the Jays 2B is likely to be just as large as the difference between Jose and their RF, which is both how good Cano is and how bad the Jays 2B options are.

3B - Can't bet on an unproven Lawrie over A-Rod, who is still one of the best 3B in the majors. I'm not saying Lawrie will be bad, but you can't go into the season expecting Lawrie to outproduce Rodriguez at this point. A-Rod's an injury risk though.

SS - Jays, fairly decent margin. Probably the biggest non-Bautista edge the Jays have.

LF - Gardner, and it doesn't matter if it's Snider or Thames. Pretty big edge I should say.

CF - Granderson, and like Cano/Gardner this is a pretty significant edge.

RF - Jose.

DH - Not sure who either team is using so I'll say push for now.

At the end of the day, the difference between Cano/Jays 2B, Granderson/Jays CF and Gardner/Jays LF is significantly greater than the edge for Bautista/Arencibia/Escobar. Yanks lineup will be significantly better.

Pitching - CC beats Romero, Morrow beats the Yanks second, and from there it's really dependent on who fills out the rest of the rotation on both sides. No way to tell from here.

Yanks also have the bullpen edge.

I think the Jays are relatively close to competing, but without several significant additions they're not passing the Yanks. Not one guy can push them over the edge.


The Yankees are on the decline at this point with Jeter, Posada, Rodriguez, Swisher, Colon, Garcia and Burnett are all not to get any better at this point in their career.

And out of that list only 1-2 of them are expected to be key players on the team. Just for fun - Bautista and Swisher are the same age, so if Swisher is on the decline so is Jose. Swish ain't in decline at all. And as I've previously mentioned, Rodriguez is still playing at an elite level. I've already addressed the others previously so I wont get into them.


If Housten would trade Bourn for as little as Stewart+ prospects im sure AA will be on that

The question is why Houston would trade Bourn for so little.


As if Teixera is more productive than anyone on the Jays - Jose. His only impressive stat is the RBI production and when you play for the yankees you get like 2 or 3 RBI plate appearances a game compared to a guy like Lind or Escobar who aren't that fortunate.

Tex is just as productive as Lind right now with a lower BA. They have nearly identical OBP and slugging, but Tex is hitting for 40 points less of BA. Means Tex is hitting more XBH (while Lind hits more singles) and Tex walks more. Unless you think Tex is a 240 hitter, he'll end up pushing past Lind going forward thanks to the fact he hits for more power and walks more.

ILDD
07-26-2011, 02:05 PM
^^^^

I'm comparing Jays 2012 against Yankees 2011 and saying that if the Jays do as well in 2012 as the Yankees have in 2011 then they are competitive. I used OPS as a measure so I'm going to stick with that.

Going position by poisition

C - push
1B - push
2B - Yankees by 2 miles
SS - Jays by a mile
3B - Yankees by half a mile
LF - Yankees by half a mile
CF - Yankees by a mile (even with Bourn)
RF - Jays by 2 miles
DH - Jays by a mile (Yankees have Posada OPS'ing 0.68!)

Jays 2012 vs Yankees 2011 is a push imho.


Houston might trade Bourn for Stewart + prospect because he is only under contract for one more season then he walks as type B and they get less than what Jays offer. They're not competing next year so why would thye need him? They probably can't resign him because his agent is Boras so he's looking big money and long term.

Nofear
07-26-2011, 07:10 PM
I just can't believe anyone in their right mind would think the Jays are one player away and that player is Bourne.

Use stats all you like but the fact is the Yanks are stocked with winners and winners do just that, win. Make the stats exactly dead even on OPS and Whip and you can be sure the team stacked with winning vets will beat the team thats never contended any day of the week.

The Yanks can have a bunch guys hit each night at 1 for 4 and have a poor OPS and they'll still score because they'll hit in ideal situations to thrive. Thats what the vets do. Same with pitching, WHIP at 1.3+ and they'll turn double plays or get timely outs, thats what vets do.

You can call they Jays ahead on stats and print the parade route if you want but comparing them to a team full of horses that know how to win is plain wrong. Stats mean nothing when you look at it logically and see that the way the winning teams play is timely hitting and timely pitching and neither has anything to do with being better due to OPS and WHIP.

The Yanks win because they make the most of their chances to score. Clutch hitting and pitchers getting timely outs wins games

Billyen
07-26-2011, 07:24 PM
And can you stop saying bullpin?

For some reason...this made me laugh hard.

We are 2 bats (of which Lawrie may be one of) and 2 arms.

Jose needs a OBP guy in front of him and a HR/OBP guy after him.

Fielder fits that second role perfectly. If you forget about the 200+ million and that the last 2-3 years his numbers will go down....having Jose and Fielder in you line up for the next 4 years...is as Martha Stewart would say..."A Good Thing"

Arms?...go after Felix. It will cost 25% of the farm but I think he's the ACE we need. I now like Wandy Rodriguez from the Astro's as our #3 also.

I trust AA to do what needs to be done...only 3 more months til the REAL 2011 Jays season begins.

Billyen
07-26-2011, 07:35 PM
And about Reyes....I get this...

"I'm having a career year and I've have a couple good seasons of which this contract year happens to be the best and I get hurt once and a while, plus I want 120 mil over 7" FEELING

....last time we did that...it didn't work out to Wells. (sorry)

Reyes is a good player having a great year. You sign him I think you'll get more '05 and '10 than you'll get '11.

Nofear
07-26-2011, 07:39 PM
Just for fun

Pirates 1.32 WHIP
Brewers 1.30 WHIP
Reds 1.31 WHIP

Pirates .670 OPS
Brewers .732 OPS
Reds .732 OPS

Pirates Division leader
Brewers .5 back in divison, 5 games behind WC
Reds 4.0 back in division, 8.5 back of WC

Pirates 1st
Brewers 3rd
Reds 4th

How does this make sense especially since their all in the same division? Pirates are behind in WHIP and getting the **** kicked out of them in OPS but somehow they're in a playoff spot but Brewers and Reds are not.

A difference of .062 in OPS is major. This isn't even a little bit, this is alot.

Just pointing this out because "what if" stats don't mean much and thats why they actually play the games. Jays can match the Yanks stats and still be 4th just like the Reds are 4th when their stats kick the crap out of the Pirates stats

wamco
07-26-2011, 10:27 PM
I have a feeling that not a lot of people understand what a blown save means...

a blown save is given everytime a pitcher comes into the game in what could possibly be a save situation and ends up losing the lead.. that means if a pitcher comes into the 7th inning with any kind of lead and ends up blowing it.. he is given a blown save since the pitcher has the chance of earning the save if he goes 3 innings...

a team can actually have more than 1 blown save in a single game

-I think what he was saying was that he was going to have heath bell come in for the 7-9th inning every game.

wamco
07-26-2011, 10:31 PM
SS - Jays by a mile
3B - Yankees by half a mile

to be clear...this is jeter/escobar and arod/lawrie?

koreancabbage
07-26-2011, 11:50 PM
i have an answer to this, replace Thames with Fielder and you have a pretty scary 3,4,5- probably the most dangerous of middle-of-the-lineup order ever in Bluejays history. Fielder bluejay 2012 - book it baby. time to break the bank.

2009mvp
07-26-2011, 11:57 PM
I just can't believe anyone in their right mind would think the Jays are one player away and that player is Bourne.

Use stats all you like but the fact is the Yanks are stocked with winners and winners do just that, win. Make the stats exactly dead even on OPS and Whip and you can be sure the team stacked with winning vets will beat the team thats never contended any day of the week.

The Yanks can have a bunch guys hit each night at 1 for 4 and have a poor OPS and they'll still score because they'll hit in ideal situations to thrive. Thats what the vets do. Same with pitching, WHIP at 1.3+ and they'll turn double plays or get timely outs, thats what vets do.

You can call they Jays ahead on stats and print the parade route if you want but comparing them to a team full of horses that know how to win is plain wrong. Stats mean nothing when you look at it logically and see that the way the winning teams play is timely hitting and timely pitching and neither has anything to do with being better due to OPS and WHIP.

The Yanks win because they make the most of their chances to score. Clutch hitting and pitchers getting timely outs wins games

Please. Use the right stats and you'd figure out the Jays are nowhere close, it has nothing to do with "knowing how to win." Bet you would have said the same thing about the '08 Rays, and all they did was win the AL East and the AL pennant.

ILDD
07-27-2011, 07:13 AM
SS - Jays by a mile
3B - Yankees by half a mile

to be clear...this is jeter/escobar and arod/lawrie?

Yes.

Jeter this year is hitting an OPS of 0.687, Escobar is at 0.829

A Rod this year is hitting 0.852, I estimated Lawrie at 0.780 (0.280/0.340/0.440). You might say I over-estimated Lawrie (I even said I may have done this early in this thread) but I also think I under-estimated others in the Jays line-up, such as Snider who I put in at this year's OPS of 0.661.

Edit: from a fangrpahs chat yesterday about Lawrie


Comment From Paul: Is Brett Lawrie worth a late season flier in fantasy?
Jack Moore: Sure, but don't get too excited about those AAA numbers, as that's possibly the hitter-friendliest enviroment in pro baseball. I'd think something like .250/.320/.450 for Lawrie this time around?

wamco
07-27-2011, 08:01 AM
Yunells has a career 773 ops though. I'd say you underrated arod actually

Muttman73
07-27-2011, 08:40 AM
Would that be Ruth or Gehrig?

ILDD
07-27-2011, 08:47 AM
Yunells has a career 773 ops though. I'd say you underrated arod actually

Again, my point is that if the Jays in 2012 are as good as the Yankees in 2011 then we will be competing.

A-Rod in 2011 has hit an OPS of 0.852. He just has, it's a fact.

Yunel's career OPS is lower than this years mark, this may be driven by 2010's number of 0.655, in 2010 his BABIP was 0.282. I don't see anything that screams that he is due for a huge regression in 2012 so I'm pretty confident that he will hit at a similar level as this year.

ILDD
07-27-2011, 08:50 AM
Please. Use the right stats and you'd figure out the Jays are nowhere close, it has nothing to do with "knowing how to win." Bet you would have said the same thing about the '08 Rays, and all they did was win the AL East and the AL pennant.

Don't take this the wrong way, which stats are you using? I'm genuinely interested because I always look at OPS because it makes sense to me. I've looked at WAR and wOBA but I just have trouble relating these numbers to field performance.

Nick O
07-27-2011, 04:31 PM
lol i wish we were.... we go out and get a good player... the sox and yanks go out and get a better one /: the only advantage i see is in our farm system..... thats our best bet for contending down the road

2009mvp
07-27-2011, 05:15 PM
Don't take this the wrong way, which stats are you using? I'm genuinely interested because I always look at OPS because it makes sense to me. I've looked at WAR and wOBA but I just have trouble relating these numbers to field performance.

Everything. WAR is certainly the most logical place to start though.

mad_mooney
07-27-2011, 05:35 PM
Disagree...they need a front-line starter and a reliable closer.

Nofear
07-27-2011, 06:27 PM
Please. Use the right stats and you'd figure out the Jays are nowhere close, it has nothing to do with "knowing how to win." Bet you would have said the same thing about the '08 Rays, and all they did was win the AL East and the AL pennant.

Okay I'll rephase, WHIP and OPS to project the Jays can equal the Yanks is wrong.

We're on the same page, the "one player away and OPS and WHIP prove it" is pure nonsense and we clearly agree on that.

Macedonian
07-27-2011, 06:56 PM
C - Arencibia
1B - Lind
2B - ????? ← This!
SS - Escobar
3B - Lawrie
LF - Snider
CF - Rasmus
RF - Bautista
DH - Thames

StayOnBoard
07-27-2011, 07:23 PM
Don't take this the wrong way, which stats are you using? I'm genuinely interested because I always look at OPS because it makes sense to me. I've looked at WAR and wOBA but I just have trouble relating these numbers to field performance.

These are ones you should be using...

StayOnBoard
07-27-2011, 07:24 PM
C - Arencibia
1B - Lind
2B - ????? ← This!
SS - Escobar
3B - Lawrie
LF - Snider
CF - Rasmus
RF - Bautista
DH - Thames

Boy that looks tasty.

Brandon Phillips please!

I would also like to see D'Arnaud where JPA is (and move JPA in a blockbuster for a true Ace pitcher). Then, look out!

wamco
07-28-2011, 07:29 AM
Again, my point is that if the Jays in 2012 are as good as the Yankees in 2011 then we will be competing.

A-Rod in 2011 has hit an OPS of 0.852. He just has, it's a fact.

Yunel's career OPS is lower than this years mark, this may be driven by 2010's number of 0.655, in 2010 his BABIP was 0.282. I don't see anything that screams that he is due for a huge regression in 2012 so I'm pretty confident that he will hit at a similar level as this year.

But the yanks have obvious flaws this year that they will throw money at fixing next season. Jays will get whatever crumbs sox/yanks don't want

Nels@Ryerson
07-28-2011, 07:49 AM
Boy that looks tasty.

Brandon Phillips please!

I would also like to see D'Arnaud where JPA is (and move JPA in a blockbuster for a true Ace pitcher). Then, look out!

I believe next year JPA or D'Arnaud will be packaged with Thames or Snider to bring in a true Ace.

This off-season we are full of options to move forward, Hopefully we can sign Brandon Phillips cuz that line-up would look god damn disgusting!

I believe AA will sign 1 inning eater and a solid closer.

Question is... without Rasmus, do you think the Jays would be this close by 2012?

ILDD
07-28-2011, 08:55 AM
But the yanks have obvious flaws this year that they will throw money at fixing next season. Jays will get whatever crumbs sox/yanks don't want

The Yankees do have obvious flaws but they are competing this year. You don't have to be a perfect team to get the wild card - the Yankees are in the wild card position with their flaws. Next year the Jays will be competitive and they too will have obvious flaws.

Even Boston (who I rate as the best team in baseball) have flaws - RF is a black hole for them & SS isn't solid.

Rasmus gets us closer (I like him but not as much as Bourn) and with him we are very, very close to competing - possibly as little as a minor improvement from Snider and Hill.

Nels@Ryerson
07-28-2011, 09:17 AM
The Yankees do have obvious flaws but they are competing this year. You don't have to be a perfect team to get the wild card - the Yankees are in the wild card position with their flaws. Next year the Jays will be competitive and they too will have obvious flaws.

Even Boston (who I rate as the best team in baseball) have flaws - RF is a black hole for them & SS isn't solid.

Rasmus gets us closer (I like him but not as much as Bourn) and with him we are very, very close to competing - possibly as little as a minor improvement from Snider and Hill.

I think Snider just needs to be come more consistent and we are good at that position.... at Second base if we could sign Brandon Phillips... that would pretty much solidify our line-up...