WriterCyril
06-02-2011, 04:01 PM
The general media has been pretty harsh grading the Mavericks game 1 performance in these NBA Finals, and most have even gone as far as saying they have ‘no shot’ anymore because of that performance.
I guess I was watching a different game!
I don’t care what the stats say, percentage wise, about the chances of them winning the NBA Finals after losing game 1.
I don’t care that the opposition, the Miami Heat, has 2 of the 5 best players in the game today, and 3 of the top 20 players.
I really don’t care that the Mavericks best player, Dirk Nowitzki, has to wear a splint on his non shooting hand (can’t emphasize NON enough).
This doesn’t mean the Mavericks have ‘no shot’.
To prove this, lets analyze what happened in game number 1 of what should be a long competitive series.
The biggest thing I keep hearing is that the Mavericks were ‘outplayed’ defensively by the Heat. What? Sure, the Mavs were held to 37.3% shooting, but did anyone care to look at what the Heat shot? They shot 38.8%, a whole 1.5% better than the Mavs. And yes, LeBron did shoot 56% from the field, but no one else on the Heat even shot over 50%. The Mavericks definitely held their own defensively against the Heat, and this will be a recurring theme throughout the series.
Knowing that the Mavs played defensively just as well as the Heat, how did they lose by 8? The answer is simple, the Heat shot 80 times compared to the Mavs 67, and this is because of the amount of offensive boards the Heat were able to get. They out rebounded the Mavs on the offensive end 16-6 during game one, and when you give up that many second chance opportunities, your team has be be significantly better on defense to win.
The Heat bench definitely outplayed the Mavericks during game 1 as well, but that doesn’t mean this will happen every game. The Mavs bench was one of the best in the league statistically throughout the whole season. Up to this point, including regular season and playoffs, they are averaging 40.2 ppg. This is in comparison to the Heat’s paltry 21.4 ppg, which is a clear 3 ppg less then the second worse team (Golden State). I’m not saying the Heat bench can’t get it done, they clearly proved this in game 1, but yearlong stats don’t lie about who has the better bench.
One of the keys to the Mavs success this postseason has also been the 3 point shot. They have sharpshooters Terry, Stojakovic, and even Nowitzki who can drain 3 point shots, and rarely have off nights. Terry and Nowitzki did well, shooting 4-9 from 3 point range, but Stojakovic shot 0-3. I know that no one can be on every night, but you’re telling me those shots he took, all wide open, will be missed every time again tonight? As long as they are open again, I have a feeling he will hit some of them.
In the same token the Mavs will hit some 3 pointers because they are so good at it, the Heat’s LeBron James won’t shoot 4-5 from downtown every game. He especially won’t hit that fade away 3 he took at the end of the third quarter every single time. I’m not LeBron hating, his 3 ball has vastly improved this postseason, but we all know he won’t hit those all the time.
The biggest reason no one should write the Mavs out is the fact that the game was close the entire time! This game wasn’t a runaway win, a blowout, or a stomping. No, this is just people knowing that the Heat have LeBron, Wade, and Bosh on their team and thinking ‘how can the Mavs beat that?’ I’ll tell you how they might still be able to win, with good teamwork and heart. I might be old fashioned, but I still think that can beat Talent any day.
What do you think?
Cyril Dunham is a sports writer, find his work at mysportsanalysis.com
I guess I was watching a different game!
I don’t care what the stats say, percentage wise, about the chances of them winning the NBA Finals after losing game 1.
I don’t care that the opposition, the Miami Heat, has 2 of the 5 best players in the game today, and 3 of the top 20 players.
I really don’t care that the Mavericks best player, Dirk Nowitzki, has to wear a splint on his non shooting hand (can’t emphasize NON enough).
This doesn’t mean the Mavericks have ‘no shot’.
To prove this, lets analyze what happened in game number 1 of what should be a long competitive series.
The biggest thing I keep hearing is that the Mavericks were ‘outplayed’ defensively by the Heat. What? Sure, the Mavs were held to 37.3% shooting, but did anyone care to look at what the Heat shot? They shot 38.8%, a whole 1.5% better than the Mavs. And yes, LeBron did shoot 56% from the field, but no one else on the Heat even shot over 50%. The Mavericks definitely held their own defensively against the Heat, and this will be a recurring theme throughout the series.
Knowing that the Mavs played defensively just as well as the Heat, how did they lose by 8? The answer is simple, the Heat shot 80 times compared to the Mavs 67, and this is because of the amount of offensive boards the Heat were able to get. They out rebounded the Mavs on the offensive end 16-6 during game one, and when you give up that many second chance opportunities, your team has be be significantly better on defense to win.
The Heat bench definitely outplayed the Mavericks during game 1 as well, but that doesn’t mean this will happen every game. The Mavs bench was one of the best in the league statistically throughout the whole season. Up to this point, including regular season and playoffs, they are averaging 40.2 ppg. This is in comparison to the Heat’s paltry 21.4 ppg, which is a clear 3 ppg less then the second worse team (Golden State). I’m not saying the Heat bench can’t get it done, they clearly proved this in game 1, but yearlong stats don’t lie about who has the better bench.
One of the keys to the Mavs success this postseason has also been the 3 point shot. They have sharpshooters Terry, Stojakovic, and even Nowitzki who can drain 3 point shots, and rarely have off nights. Terry and Nowitzki did well, shooting 4-9 from 3 point range, but Stojakovic shot 0-3. I know that no one can be on every night, but you’re telling me those shots he took, all wide open, will be missed every time again tonight? As long as they are open again, I have a feeling he will hit some of them.
In the same token the Mavs will hit some 3 pointers because they are so good at it, the Heat’s LeBron James won’t shoot 4-5 from downtown every game. He especially won’t hit that fade away 3 he took at the end of the third quarter every single time. I’m not LeBron hating, his 3 ball has vastly improved this postseason, but we all know he won’t hit those all the time.
The biggest reason no one should write the Mavs out is the fact that the game was close the entire time! This game wasn’t a runaway win, a blowout, or a stomping. No, this is just people knowing that the Heat have LeBron, Wade, and Bosh on their team and thinking ‘how can the Mavs beat that?’ I’ll tell you how they might still be able to win, with good teamwork and heart. I might be old fashioned, but I still think that can beat Talent any day.
What do you think?
Cyril Dunham is a sports writer, find his work at mysportsanalysis.com