PatsSoxKnicks

04-19-2011, 04:19 PM

Crawford is going to be officiating game 2 in the Mavs-Blazers series. And to say the Mavs aren't good when Crawford officiates their games is an understatement. Some highlights from the ESPN article:

The Mavs have a 2-16 record in playoff games officiated by Crawford, including 16 losses in the last 17 games. Dallas is 48-41 in the rest of their playoff games during the ownership tenure of Mark Cuban.

The Mavs have been called for 2.3 fouls per game more than their opponents in playoff games officiated by Crawford, compared to a nearly even foul differential in their other playoff games since 2001. Dallas has averaged 6.8 fewer free throws than their opponents in playoff games Crawford has worked. Opponents have an edge in free throw differential in the rest of the Mavs' playoff games, but it's only by a little more than one attempt per game.

The assignment of Crawford to Game 2 of the Portland-Dallas series comes on the heels of Blazers coach Nate McMillan being fined $35,000 for publicly commenting on the officiating after the Mavs' 89-81 win Saturday night. McMillan questioned how the Mavs could have a 19-2 advantage in free throws during the fourth quarter of that game.

The Mavs are 4-14 against the betting line in playoff games officiated by Crawford.

http://sports.espn.go.com/dallas/nba/news/story?id=6388692

Over at basketball-reference, they calculate the probability of this happening based on the betting lines:

At the risk of running afoul of the Wyatt Earp Effect again, what is the probability that this has happened due to chance alone?

In his book Mathletics, Wayne Winston finds that the final margin of victory in an NBA game can be approximated by a normal random variable with a mean of the point spread and a standard deviation of 12. Using that knowledge and the handy chart ESPN provided at the bottom of their story on Crawford, we can calculate the probability of Dallas winning each of their Crawford-officiated games since 2001:

So let's simulate that set of games 10,000 times and see how often Dallas has each possible record.

Record Count Prob

18-0 0 0.0%

17-1 0 0.0%

16-2 2 0.0%

15-3 13 0.1%

14-4 58 0.6%

13-5 168 1.7%

12-6 466 4.7%

11-7 957 9.6%

10-8 1538 15.4%

9-9 1932 19.3%

8-10 1881 18.8%

7-11 1487 14.9%

6-12 913 9.1%

5-13 389 3.9%

4-14 160 1.6%

3-15 31 0.3%

2-16 4 0.0%

1-17 1 0.0%

0-18 0 0.0%

Yep, out of 10,000 simulations, Dallas ended up with a 2-16 record or worse...

5 times.

That's 0.05% of the time. Now, maybe the zombie corpse of Wyatt Earp is going to eat my brain for saying this... but given their point spreads, it seems like there's very little chance that Dallas' poor performance in Crawford-officiated games has happened due to random variation alone.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9295

Is this just random chance that the Mavs always lose when Crawford officiates or is there more foul play at work here?

The Mavs have a 2-16 record in playoff games officiated by Crawford, including 16 losses in the last 17 games. Dallas is 48-41 in the rest of their playoff games during the ownership tenure of Mark Cuban.

The Mavs have been called for 2.3 fouls per game more than their opponents in playoff games officiated by Crawford, compared to a nearly even foul differential in their other playoff games since 2001. Dallas has averaged 6.8 fewer free throws than their opponents in playoff games Crawford has worked. Opponents have an edge in free throw differential in the rest of the Mavs' playoff games, but it's only by a little more than one attempt per game.

The assignment of Crawford to Game 2 of the Portland-Dallas series comes on the heels of Blazers coach Nate McMillan being fined $35,000 for publicly commenting on the officiating after the Mavs' 89-81 win Saturday night. McMillan questioned how the Mavs could have a 19-2 advantage in free throws during the fourth quarter of that game.

The Mavs are 4-14 against the betting line in playoff games officiated by Crawford.

http://sports.espn.go.com/dallas/nba/news/story?id=6388692

Over at basketball-reference, they calculate the probability of this happening based on the betting lines:

At the risk of running afoul of the Wyatt Earp Effect again, what is the probability that this has happened due to chance alone?

In his book Mathletics, Wayne Winston finds that the final margin of victory in an NBA game can be approximated by a normal random variable with a mean of the point spread and a standard deviation of 12. Using that knowledge and the handy chart ESPN provided at the bottom of their story on Crawford, we can calculate the probability of Dallas winning each of their Crawford-officiated games since 2001:

So let's simulate that set of games 10,000 times and see how often Dallas has each possible record.

Record Count Prob

18-0 0 0.0%

17-1 0 0.0%

16-2 2 0.0%

15-3 13 0.1%

14-4 58 0.6%

13-5 168 1.7%

12-6 466 4.7%

11-7 957 9.6%

10-8 1538 15.4%

9-9 1932 19.3%

8-10 1881 18.8%

7-11 1487 14.9%

6-12 913 9.1%

5-13 389 3.9%

4-14 160 1.6%

3-15 31 0.3%

2-16 4 0.0%

1-17 1 0.0%

0-18 0 0.0%

Yep, out of 10,000 simulations, Dallas ended up with a 2-16 record or worse...

5 times.

That's 0.05% of the time. Now, maybe the zombie corpse of Wyatt Earp is going to eat my brain for saying this... but given their point spreads, it seems like there's very little chance that Dallas' poor performance in Crawford-officiated games has happened due to random variation alone.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9295

Is this just random chance that the Mavs always lose when Crawford officiates or is there more foul play at work here?