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View Full Version : Danny Crawford and the Mavs: Is there foul officiating?



PatsSoxKnicks
04-19-2011, 04:19 PM
Crawford is going to be officiating game 2 in the Mavs-Blazers series. And to say the Mavs aren't good when Crawford officiates their games is an understatement. Some highlights from the ESPN article:


The Mavs have a 2-16 record in playoff games officiated by Crawford, including 16 losses in the last 17 games. Dallas is 48-41 in the rest of their playoff games during the ownership tenure of Mark Cuban.

The Mavs have been called for 2.3 fouls per game more than their opponents in playoff games officiated by Crawford, compared to a nearly even foul differential in their other playoff games since 2001. Dallas has averaged 6.8 fewer free throws than their opponents in playoff games Crawford has worked. Opponents have an edge in free throw differential in the rest of the Mavs' playoff games, but it's only by a little more than one attempt per game.

The assignment of Crawford to Game 2 of the Portland-Dallas series comes on the heels of Blazers coach Nate McMillan being fined $35,000 for publicly commenting on the officiating after the Mavs' 89-81 win Saturday night. McMillan questioned how the Mavs could have a 19-2 advantage in free throws during the fourth quarter of that game.

The Mavs are 4-14 against the betting line in playoff games officiated by Crawford.

http://sports.espn.go.com/dallas/nba/news/story?id=6388692

Over at basketball-reference, they calculate the probability of this happening based on the betting lines:


At the risk of running afoul of the Wyatt Earp Effect again, what is the probability that this has happened due to chance alone?

In his book Mathletics, Wayne Winston finds that the final margin of victory in an NBA game can be approximated by a normal random variable with a mean of the point spread and a standard deviation of 12. Using that knowledge and the handy chart ESPN provided at the bottom of their story on Crawford, we can calculate the probability of Dallas winning each of their Crawford-officiated games since 2001:

So let's simulate that set of games 10,000 times and see how often Dallas has each possible record.


Record Count Prob
18-0 0 0.0%
17-1 0 0.0%
16-2 2 0.0%
15-3 13 0.1%
14-4 58 0.6%
13-5 168 1.7%
12-6 466 4.7%
11-7 957 9.6%
10-8 1538 15.4%
9-9 1932 19.3%
8-10 1881 18.8%
7-11 1487 14.9%
6-12 913 9.1%
5-13 389 3.9%
4-14 160 1.6%
3-15 31 0.3%
2-16 4 0.0%
1-17 1 0.0%
0-18 0 0.0%


Yep, out of 10,000 simulations, Dallas ended up with a 2-16 record or worse...

5 times.

That's 0.05% of the time. Now, maybe the zombie corpse of Wyatt Earp is going to eat my brain for saying this... but given their point spreads, it seems like there's very little chance that Dallas' poor performance in Crawford-officiated games has happened due to random variation alone.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9295

Is this just random chance that the Mavs always lose when Crawford officiates or is there more foul play at work here?

Niro
04-19-2011, 04:29 PM
lets hope he is not officiating game 7 in any mavs series

valade16
04-19-2011, 04:31 PM
It's more than random variation, I don't understand why people are still doubting Donaughy when he literally has facts like this that back up what he was saying...

Also, your math is wrong, 5 times out of 10,000 simulations is .0005, not .05.

That is astronomically low, were talking less than a half of a half of a percent. NO way is that random variation.

Pierzynski4Prez
04-19-2011, 04:32 PM
He hates Mark Cuban. Plain and simple. A lot of refs do, and to say he refs dallas games unbiased is a joke. Doneghy wrote about it in his book as well, for those who take Doneghy somewhat at his word.

godolphins
04-19-2011, 04:32 PM
Nothing new here we all know most refs are dirty

PatsSoxKnicks
04-19-2011, 04:34 PM
It's more than random variation, I don't understand why people are still doubting Donaughy when he literally has facts like this that back up what he was saying...

Also, your math is wrong, 5 times out of 10,000 simulations is .0005, not .05.

That is astronomically low, were talking less than a half of a half of a percent. NO way is that random variation.

Not my math, basketball-ref's math. But they said .05 percent. So multiply .0005 times 100 and you get .05%.

Regardless, that is ridiculously low.

valade16
04-19-2011, 04:34 PM
lets hope he is not officiating game 7 in any mavs series

I'm a Blazer fan so I'm kind of hoping that. :D

In all seriousness, I think him officiating game 2 is payback for how crappy game 1 was called. The blazers play primarily in the paint and the Mva primarily on the perimeter and yet they shot way more FTs, including a 13-2 disparity in the 4th. In fact, they had as many FTs in the 4th as the Blazers had all game.

knicks_champ
04-19-2011, 04:34 PM
Just play with prison rules.

John Walls Era
04-19-2011, 04:34 PM
It's more than random variation, I don't understand why people are still doubting Donaughy when he literally has facts like this that back up what he was saying...

Also, your math is wrong, 5 times out of 10,000 simulations is .0005, not .05.

That is astronomically low, were talking less than a half of a half of a percent. NO way is that random variation.

Maybe because he was a cheating scumbag.

Pierzynski4Prez
04-19-2011, 04:35 PM
Heat fans should appreciate refs like Crawford. They did help them win a title. Not trying to bait either, just basing this off what I saw and Doneghy wrote.

valade16
04-19-2011, 04:35 PM
Not my math, basketball-ref's math. But they said .05 percent. So multiply .0005 times 100 and you get .05%.

Regardless, that is ridiculously low.

You are right sir.

Pierzynski4Prez
04-19-2011, 04:36 PM
Maybe because he was a cheating scumbag.

He was a gambling scumbag. They never found proof of him fixing games he was reffing. But if you read his book, you will find that most, if not all refs are scumbags who many times have personal agendas when reffing. And much of what he said is very believable. He pointed out stats, such as the one this thread is based around specifically citing Crawford and his hate of Cuban, throughout his book.

valade16
04-19-2011, 04:39 PM
Maybe because he was a cheating scumbag.

As opposed to refs like Crawford who aren't? :rolleyes:

Look at the numbers, the chances of Crawfords officiating happening to the Mavs randomly is .05%, and that statistical improbability probably skyrockets when you add in their 48-41 record without him.

You can't dismiss the stat, donaughy was absolutely right about crawford. So he lied about everything else? Seems farfetched...

ddhulett
04-19-2011, 04:46 PM
I'm a Blazer fan so I'm kind of hoping that. :D

In all seriousness, I think him officiating game 2 is payback for how crappy game 1 was called. The blazers play primarily in the paint and the Mva primarily on the perimeter and yet they shot way more FTs, including a 13-2 disparity in the 4th. In fact, they had as many FTs in the 4th as the Blazers had all game.

The Blazers did get into the penalty pretty quick so you wouldn't have to be in the paint in order to get a penalty FT.

Baller1
04-19-2011, 04:47 PM
I guess we'll find out tonight. All eyes will be on this possible scandal.

valade16
04-19-2011, 04:48 PM
The Blazers did get into the penalty pretty quick so you wouldn't have to be in the paint in order to get a penalty FT.

From incredibly weak touch fouls. I believe there was even 3 fouls on the Blazers on one possession.

jiggin
04-19-2011, 04:52 PM
Well, like the Mavs fans said after Nate complained (and was fined) after game ones officiating:

At least they hvae their crutch to blame...right?

Shut up mavs fans, its all part of the game, that was your message after the Blazers were mistreated by the officiating in game one. Remember that...in game two.

jiggin
04-19-2011, 04:57 PM
Blazers had 13 free throws ALL GAME. Mavs had 19 in the 4th quarter alone! Mavs didn't score a FG till 3 minutes left in the 4th yet managed to not only keep the game close but come back from free shots from the stripe.

Nate McMillan was not happy and was fined $35,000 for saying so. The blazers couldn't do anything close to Dirk without a whistle blowing...and surprise surprise, he was pretty much silent in the first 3 quarters without the whistle blowing his way.

Oh, by the way, all those blazer fouls in the 4th came while they were ahead...Cause you know...NBA teams foul a lot more when they are controlling the tempo and ahead by 6+ points. :rolleyes:

It was pretty ****ing obvious.

I am all for a fair fight and my team or any favorite of mine losing...but you got to call a spade a spade if you see one. And apparently LOTS of people are seeing it...not just a couple fans on PSD *****ing cause their teams lost.

PatsSoxKnicks
04-19-2011, 05:01 PM
Well, like the Mavs fans said after Nate complained (and was fined) after game ones officiating:

At least they hvae their crutch to blame...right?

Shut up mavs fans, its all part of the game, that was your message after the Blazers were mistreated by the officiating in game one. Remember that...in game two.

I'm not a Mavs fan and I don't care who wins this series. But you have to admit, there's some fishy stuff going on between Crawford and the Mavs.

dnewguy
04-19-2011, 06:08 PM
The bookies are keeping tabs.

Kashmir13579
04-19-2011, 06:12 PM
those are scary numbers. i'm not one for conspiracies; but lets be real here, this is the NBA. look no further than the first 2 days of the playoffs and you'll see that something shady is going on. its the same story every year it seems like. poor Mavericks fans. Stern hates Cuban.

drobe86
04-19-2011, 09:50 PM
This is the NBA lol... Its funny watching people complain about referees. All NBA refs are terrible and have been for most of my life lol... (26) years. Sure Crawford is a terrible ref, but he's not much worse than any of the rest of them. Play ball and let the chips fall where they may. I believe Donaghey was crooked and he got busted. No need putting the rest of the refs on his level.

gatkins11
04-20-2011, 02:47 AM
It makes me sick to my stomach to even think about it.

magic0320
04-20-2011, 03:23 AM
I believe every single refs are like Donaghey, and won't change my opinions until they punish refs for bad officiating.

I mean it's hard call but when you are consistently bad they need to get punished for their mistakes.

I mean when players make bad foul by accidentally they get thousands of hard earn money taken away by fine. it should be fu kin same with fa g refs