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Kashmir13579
01-21-2011, 04:27 PM
Carmelo Anthony, whom the Knicks are considering acquiring in a trade, is sometimes thought of as a selfish player. Indeed, he is the center of the Denver Nuggets’ offense: when he is on the court for them, about 30 percent of their possessions end in Anthony shooting, going to the foul line, or committing a turnover. Nor is Anthony much of a passer: over his career, he’s accumulated 3.1 assists per 36 minutes played, considerably less than that of other high-volume scorers like Kobe Bryant (4.6 assists per 36 minutes) or LeBron James (6.2).

In taking all of those shots, however, Anthony has also done something else: he’s made his teammates much more efficient offensive players.

Anthony is a controversial player among those who devote their time to analyzing basketball statistics. The reason is as follows: although he scores a lot of points, he does not do so especially efficiently. His True Shooting Percentage (TS%) – which accounts not just for two-point buckets but also for three-point shots and drawing fouls, neither of which are a particular strength of Anthony’s – is .527 this year and .543 for his career. Those figures are roughly at the league average, which is about .540 in most years.

Anthony’s TS% is also worse than all five of the Knicks’ regular starters, including Wilson Chandler (.579), Danilo Gallinari (.600), and Landry Fields (.611), the men whom he might replace in the lineup. This has led some to argue that Anthony could actually represent a step backward for the Knicks. David Berri, an economist at Southern Utah University who has developed a statistic called Wins Produced that places an extremely high premium on efficiency, told the Wall Street Journal that a Knicks roster with Anthony, Amare Stoudemire and Raymond Felton — but without Fields or Chandler — would win only 29 games per season.

This strikes me as highly implausible: the Nuggets, with a supporting cast that isn’t obviously any better than the one that Anthony would be joining in New York, have won an average of 48 games per season since Anthony’s rookie year, despite playing in the deep Western Conference. They have also been a relatively efficient offensive team. The year before Anthony joined the Nuggets, they ranked dead last in the N.B.A. in offensive efficiency (points scored per possession) on their way to winning just 17 games. But their offensive efficiently ranking shot up to 8th in the league in Anthony’s rookie season and has remained roughly at that level since.

What is missing from formulas like Berri’s is an account of what Anthony does to the rest of the Nuggets. Because he is able to score from anywhere in the court, Anthony draws attention and defenders away from his teammates, sometimes leaving them with wide-open shots. He also allows them to be more selective about the shots that they choose to take, since they know that Anthony can usually get a respectable shot off before the 24-second clock expires if needed.

These effects produce a profound increase in the efficiency of Anthony’s supporting cast when he is on the floor. In the 135 games that he played with the Nuggets, for instance, Allen Iverson’s True Shooting Percentage was 55.9 percent – much better than the 51.2 TS% that Iverson, a notoriously inefficient shooter, posted outside of Denver over the course of his career.

In fact, this is true of almost every Nugget who has played a sufficient number of minutes with Anthony. I identified 16 players who have accumulated least 2,000 minutes with the Nuggets in years when Anthony was on the team, and have also played at least 2,000 minutes in the N.B.A. without Anthony (either because they were playing for a different team or because they were on the Nuggets before Anthony’s rookie season). All but 2 of the players – Marcus Camby and Voshon Lenard – posted a higher TS% playing with Anthony than without him, and on average, he improved his teammates’ TS% by 3.8 points (to 55.0 percent from 51.2 percent).

http://www.538host.com/carmelo.png
(link to the table illustrating this trend)

The effect of a player who improves the rest of his team’s TS% by 3.8 points is extremely substantial: it is works out to their scoring about 5 or 5.5 additional points per game solely on the basis of this efficiency gain. That, in turn, translates into about 15 additional wins per season for an average team, according to a commonly-used formula. This is how Anthony creates most of his value — not in the shots he takes himself, but in the ones he creates for his teammates – and some of the “advanced” formulas completely miss it.

With that said, there is reason to question whether Anthony would have quite the same effect in New York that he did in Denver. With a few exceptions like Iverson, the Nuggets have generally surrounded Anthony with defensively-minded players like Camby who are not especially eager to shoot or who do not do so especially well. The Knicks, by contrast, are a run-and-gun team with lots of good shooters and they already rank fifth in the league in offensive efficiency.

There are some precedents for pairing several high-volume scorers together and seeing them thrive: when Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen joined Paul Pierce on the Celtics, for instance, all three players took fewer shots, but all three were rewarded with a significant increase in their TS%. On the other hand, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh have not seen an increase in their efficiency since joining together on the Miami Heat, even though they are shooting a bit less often.

So there are no guarantees – one would need to consider more carefully exactly how Anthony would integrate into Mike D’Antoni’s offense and exactly which type of shots he’d take. One would also need to think about Anthony’s defense and rebounding, where he is no standout. But upon a more careful examination, the argument that Anthony is a merely average offensive player turns out to be superficial.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/15/why-carmelo-anthony-is-the-ultimate-team-player-and-what-advanced-stats-miss-about-him/

Rivera
01-21-2011, 04:40 PM
thats what i been tryin to say!!!!

melo is boss....top 10 nba player today (i have him at 6)

theres just some things advanced stats miss (even though i do love them for ball) and this article hit the nail on the head

more open shots for teammates because of the threat of carmelo

and because wilson chandler/gallo/ and fields post a higher TS% doesnt make them better than melo

hes a top 10 player and a differencemaker out there on the basketball floor...he would have a positive effect if he went to the knicks and those players would get more open J's

ElMarroAfamado
01-21-2011, 04:55 PM
Melo will never lead a team anywhere as the main guy like he was in Denver...he needs to be a lebron james next to a wade.....
a gasol, next to a kobe....
etc....

JordansBulls
01-21-2011, 05:22 PM
Excellent piece of work here.

pd1dish
01-21-2011, 05:23 PM
Melo will never lead a team anywhere as the main guy like he was in Denver...he needs to be a lebron james next to a wade.....
a gasol, next to a kobe....
etc....

thats exactly whats going to happen. hes not going to NJ anymore. the next top team hes expected to go to is the knicks. theyve got amare. the bulls have been in a lot of rumors. bulls have rose and boozer. my guess is that he gets traded to some random team that can give the nuggets a good deal in hopes that he will resign with that team that trades for him. but my expectation is that he still ultimately becomes a knick in the offseason.

John Walls Era
01-21-2011, 05:26 PM
What is missing from formulas like Berri’s is an account of what Anthony does to the rest of the Nuggets. Because he is able to score from anywhere in the court, Anthony draws attention and defenders away from his teammates, sometimes leaving them with wide-open shots. He also allows them to be more selective about the shots that they choose to take, since they know that Anthony can usually get a respectable shot off before the 24-second clock expires if needed.

All the top players in the league makes their teams better... Melo is a great player, but there are also some flaws with the argument.

AIMelo=KillaDUO
01-21-2011, 05:30 PM
Melo will never lead a team anywhere as the main guy like he was in Denver...he needs to be a lebron james next to a wade.....
a gasol, next to a kobe....
etc....

Google "2003 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship"

Now if you meant, in the NBA... please clarify next time.

Crackadalic
01-21-2011, 05:49 PM
All the top players in the league makes their teams better... Melo is a great player, but there are also some flaws with the argument.

Definitely flaws but i just hate when people say melo is so one dimensional. He impacts the game so much more beyond stats. Its the same with Amare or lebron or kobe etc. They all commend a double team or have a game plan to stop player A but makes it easier for the other teammates

Chronz
01-21-2011, 06:01 PM
This is utter BS, the flaws in this study have already been refuted in the Melo thread and the title is extremely misleading.

Chronz
01-21-2011, 06:02 PM
Excellent piece of work here.
Only if you know nothing of APBR and its real analytical findings. This is amateur stuff and while his intentions were good it wasnt very informative.

Hustlenomics
01-21-2011, 06:04 PM
anyone who thinks Melo can't win a championship with the right players around him is clueless

AIMelo=KillaDUO
01-21-2011, 06:11 PM
anyone who thinks Melo can't win a championship with the right players around him is clueless

this.

Chronz
01-21-2011, 06:14 PM
anyone who thinks Melo can't win a championship with the right players around him is clueless

Considering ANY player can win a championship with the right players around him, this is a meaningless statement.


this was pointless.

Fixed

Hustlenomics
01-21-2011, 06:17 PM
Considering ANY player can win a championship with the right players around him, this is a meaningless statement.



Fixed

there was another thread where everyone was saying Melo can't win a ring in any circumstance and he's just a scorer

ChiSox219
01-21-2011, 06:21 PM
I wonder how players perform with and without Billups...

valade16
01-21-2011, 06:31 PM
Considering ANY player can win a championship with the right players around him, this is a meaningless statement.



Fixed

Why do you use advanced stats like they are always 100% right and tell the entire story? You know EVERY stat is flawed right?

Larry Bird is 18th all-time in PER, do you really think he's the 18th best player?

Heck, Elton Brand is 35th!

Chronz
01-21-2011, 06:41 PM
Why do you use advanced stats like they are always 100% right and tell the entire story? You know EVERY stat is flawed right?

Larry Bird is 18th all-time in PER, do you really think he's the 18th best player?

Heck, Elton Brand is 35th!

First question, I dont.

2nd Q, yes thats why I rely on the least flawed stats to begin my analysis

3rd Q, nobody uses PER as an end all

Hawkeye15
01-21-2011, 06:51 PM
I actually think this is suspect work, and the article's so called "strong points" for Melo have actually been discussed and imo, are mostly false. Melo is a great player, but he isn't a top 5-8 kind of guy that can put a team on his back. His inefficiencies are simple to point out, despite his gaudy per game numbers and team success (to a degree anyways)

valade16
01-21-2011, 06:56 PM
First question, I dont.

2nd Q, yes thats why I rely on the least flawed stats to begin my analysis

3rd Q, nobody uses PER as an end all

It's just funny to me that people bash on Melo all the time, and magnify his flaws like he isn't one of the best players on the planet.

He led Syracuse to a National Title as a Freshman, so obviously he's shown that he can lead a team, and he can win the top prize.

I know the NBA is different, but he's shown a lot more than a lot of other stars.

I just don't understand the hate.

Hawkeye15
01-21-2011, 06:57 PM
I would like to make sure that everyone knows, when you add a great player to a group of players on the floor, those players TS% will almost be guaranteed to go up, due to usage dropping, and higher percentage shots being taken by those players.

This study is not something that is out of the norm. Any top 25 player in the league makes the others around him better. This is why we can say player A is a top player, but player B is not, even if their per game numbers are similar.

Now, introduce him to the Knicks and Mike D's offense, and there may be a smaller jump in TS% than there was in Denver. Has more to do with NYs style of play, and the fact that they have a player who requires high usage, and less to do with Melo.

Hawkeye15
01-21-2011, 07:01 PM
It's just funny to me that people bash on Melo all the time, and magnify his flaws like he isn't one of the best players on the planet.

He led Syracuse to a National Title as a Freshman, so obviously he's shown that he can lead a team, and he can win the top prize.

I know the NBA is different, but he's shown a lot more than a lot of other stars.

I just don't understand the hate.

who said he isn't one of the better players on the planet???

It simply needs to be understood there are a handful of players whose effect on the game is substantially stronger than Carmelo Anthony. His name should never be used with other wings such as LeBron, Kobe, Wade, or Durant.

College basketball? Who cares? This is an NBA board, and the talent level of college now is a joke compared to when kids started just skipping it all together.

Its not hate to attempt and prove a theory or stereotype wrong, especially when you provide evidence.

Anilyzer
01-21-2011, 07:25 PM
Carmelo Anthony, whom the Knicks are considering acquiring in a trade, is sometimes thought of as a selfish player. Indeed, he is the center of the Denver Nuggets’ offense: when he is on the court for them, about 30 percent of their possessions end in Anthony shooting, going to the foul line, or committing a turnover. Nor is Anthony much of a passer: over his career, he’s accumulated 3.1 assists per 36 minutes played, considerably less than that of other high-volume scorers like Kobe Bryant (4.6 assists per 36 minutes) or LeBron James (6.2).

In taking all of those shots, however, Anthony has also done something else: he’s made his teammates much more efficient offensive players.

Anthony is a controversial player among those who devote their time to analyzing basketball statistics. The reason is as follows: although he scores a lot of points, he does not do so especially efficiently. His True Shooting Percentage (TS%) – which accounts not just for two-point buckets but also for three-point shots and drawing fouls, neither of which are a particular strength of Anthony’s – is .527 this year and .543 for his career. Those figures are roughly at the league average, which is about .540 in most years.

Anthony’s TS% is also worse than all five of the Knicks’ regular starters, including Wilson Chandler (.579), Danilo Gallinari (.600), and Landry Fields (.611), the men whom he might replace in the lineup. This has led some to argue that Anthony could actually represent a step backward for the Knicks. David Berri, an economist at Southern Utah University who has developed a statistic called Wins Produced that places an extremely high premium on efficiency, told the Wall Street Journal that a Knicks roster with Anthony, Amare Stoudemire and Raymond Felton — but without Fields or Chandler — would win only 29 games per season.

This strikes me as highly implausible: the Nuggets, with a supporting cast that isn’t obviously any better than the one that Anthony would be joining in New York, have won an average of 48 games per season since Anthony’s rookie year, despite playing in the deep Western Conference. They have also been a relatively efficient offensive team. The year before Anthony joined the Nuggets, they ranked dead last in the N.B.A. in offensive efficiency (points scored per possession) on their way to winning just 17 games. But their offensive efficiently ranking shot up to 8th in the league in Anthony’s rookie season and has remained roughly at that level since.

What is missing from formulas like Berri’s is an account of what Anthony does to the rest of the Nuggets. Because he is able to score from anywhere in the court, Anthony draws attention and defenders away from his teammates, sometimes leaving them with wide-open shots. He also allows them to be more selective about the shots that they choose to take, since they know that Anthony can usually get a respectable shot off before the 24-second clock expires if needed.

These effects produce a profound increase in the efficiency of Anthony’s supporting cast when he is on the floor. In the 135 games that he played with the Nuggets, for instance, Allen Iverson’s True Shooting Percentage was 55.9 percent – much better than the 51.2 TS% that Iverson, a notoriously inefficient shooter, posted outside of Denver over the course of his career.

In fact, this is true of almost every Nugget who has played a sufficient number of minutes with Anthony. I identified 16 players who have accumulated least 2,000 minutes with the Nuggets in years when Anthony was on the team, and have also played at least 2,000 minutes in the N.B.A. without Anthony (either because they were playing for a different team or because they were on the Nuggets before Anthony’s rookie season). All but 2 of the players – Marcus Camby and Voshon Lenard – posted a higher TS% playing with Anthony than without him, and on average, he improved his teammates’ TS% by 3.8 points (to 55.0 percent from 51.2 percent).

http://www.538host.com/carmelo.png
(link to the table illustrating this trend)

The effect of a player who improves the rest of his team’s TS% by 3.8 points is extremely substantial: it is works out to their scoring about 5 or 5.5 additional points per game solely on the basis of this efficiency gain. That, in turn, translates into about 15 additional wins per season for an average team, according to a commonly-used formula. This is how Anthony creates most of his value — not in the shots he takes himself, but in the ones he creates for his teammates – and some of the “advanced” formulas completely miss it.

With that said, there is reason to question whether Anthony would have quite the same effect in New York that he did in Denver. With a few exceptions like Iverson, the Nuggets have generally surrounded Anthony with defensively-minded players like Camby who are not especially eager to shoot or who do not do so especially well. The Knicks, by contrast, are a run-and-gun team with lots of good shooters and they already rank fifth in the league in offensive efficiency.

There are some precedents for pairing several high-volume scorers together and seeing them thrive: when Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen joined Paul Pierce on the Celtics, for instance, all three players took fewer shots, but all three were rewarded with a significant increase in their TS%. On the other hand, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh have not seen an increase in their efficiency since joining together on the Miami Heat, even though they are shooting a bit less often.

So there are no guarantees – one would need to consider more carefully exactly how Anthony would integrate into Mike D’Antoni’s offense and exactly which type of shots he’d take. One would also need to think about Anthony’s defense and rebounding, where he is no standout. But upon a more careful examination, the argument that Anthony is a merely average offensive player turns out to be superficial.


I wish somebody could just summarize the main points of that article, because I read it and I just don't totally get it.


How many people ever said Anthony was just an average offensive player?

And I think the "counter-arguments" the article brings up are so weak and statistically confusing, and don't seem to have any conclusions or point to them... it just seems to bring up more questions than it answers. This is true "wtf?" journalism if you ask me.



These effects produce a profound increase in the efficiency of Anthony’s supporting cast when he is on the floor. In the 135 games that he played with the Nuggets, for instance, Allen Iverson’s True Shooting Percentage was 55.9 percent – much better than the 51.2 TS% that Iverson, a notoriously inefficient shooter, posted outside of Denver over the course of his career.



uhhhhhh... Iverson? What the hell are you talking about? what is this article even about?



With that said, there is reason to question whether Anthony would have quite the same effect in New York that he did in Denver. With a few exceptions like Iverson, the Nuggets have generally surrounded Anthony with defensively-minded players like Camby who are not especially eager to shoot or who do not do so especially well. The Knicks, by contrast, are a run-and-gun team with lots of good shooters and they already rank fifth in the league in offensive efficiency.



just confusing as hell.


Look, let me break it down for you:

1. Carmelo's TS% = .543

2. Carmelo has that TS% while taking very, very many shots and being the main focus of the offense and of the opposing defense, including many double teams.

3. Carmelo is also an excellent passer.

4. Carmelo is such a threat offensively, and draws so many double teams, that his teammates productivity increases, because they get more good looks.


END OF STORY. That is why Carmelo is at least a Top 10 player in the league and was one of the best on the Olympic team.

Anilyzer
01-21-2011, 07:29 PM
oh... I get it. Iverson has a lot of tattoos, just like Carmelo. I guess that is the main point of the article.

IBleedPurple
01-21-2011, 07:53 PM
Not so sure that the Knicks supporting cast is better than Denver.


It's just funny to me that people bash on Melo all the time, and magnify his flaws like he isn't one of the best players on the planet.

He led Syracuse to a National Title as a Freshman, so obviously he's shown that he can lead a team, and he can win the top prize.

I know the NBA is different, but he's shown a lot more than a lot of other stars.

I just don't understand the hate.


He has shown nothing leading a team in the playoffs. Watching nearly every Nuggets game, he isn't close to a leader, and has not shown a lot more than other stars.

Great player, yes. But not even close to an ultimate team player. Good passer at best....when he wants to actually pass

Kashmir13579
01-21-2011, 07:55 PM
either way, you have to love how half the forum isn't reading at a high enough level to comprehend the article. hawkeye, chronz, do you happen to know anywhere we could find the same numbers in regards to Lebron, Durant, etc. like, whats the average bump in TS% for their team-mates. you guys may be entirely right like you usually are; i just wanna see the numbers.

GREATNESS ONE
01-21-2011, 08:11 PM
Melo is going to win a ring one day.

Kashmir13579
01-21-2011, 08:14 PM
Melo is going to win a ring one day.

i hope so.

Chronz
01-21-2011, 09:17 PM
either way, you have to love how half the forum isn't reading at a high enough level to comprehend the article. hawkeye, chronz, do you happen to know anywhere we could find the same numbers in regards to Lebron, Durant, etc. like, whats the average bump in TS% for their team-mates. you guys may be entirely right like you usually are; i just wanna see the numbers.

Well if you want to know the teams #'s without Bron or Durant on the court you can find it at basketballvalue.com, if you want to look at the stats his teammates put up with and without him on the court the data is only readily available at 82games.com from 04-05 to 08-09.

If you want to do a study like this one then you have to look at the #'s the player put up before and after said player just make sure to only look at the most recent performance. It makes no sense to credit Melo for an uptick that wouldve happened regardless of his presence (as is the case with citing the improvement of young players), and try to consider the players usage before and after, as that in itself has an effect on a players efficiency.

I plan on doing something similar for all the elite players but thats a tall order right now. Im in a heavy nyquil coma

Chronz
01-21-2011, 09:17 PM
It's just funny to me that people bash on Melo all the time, and magnify his flaws like he isn't one of the best players on the planet.

He led Syracuse to a National Title as a Freshman, so obviously he's shown that he can lead a team, and he can win the top prize.

I know the NBA is different, but he's shown a lot more than a lot of other stars.

I just don't understand the hate.
Emeka Okafor has led his team to a title in CLUTCH fashion.

Richard Hamilton has led his team to a title stage on both levels and has won a chip. Is that really so telling?

John Walls Era
01-21-2011, 09:33 PM
:laugh: Ultimate Team Player

Sixerlover
01-21-2011, 09:49 PM
Emeka Okafor has led his team to a title in CLUTCH fashion.

Richard Hamilton has led his team to a title stage on both levels and has won a chip. Is that really so telling?

Rip Hamilton for G.O.A.T

I mean seriously, how good were the Nuggets in the playoffs before Chauncey came aboard? Using a one and done format that was 8 years ago against much less talented competition is a very very very flawed way to show somebody is a clutch player.

Hellcrooner
01-21-2011, 09:49 PM
anyone who thinks Melo can't win a championship with the right players around him is clueless

what does this prove?


I mean.

Take duncan out and replace for Kg, Dirk or Pau.

Take kobe out and replace for wade or Lebron.

Take billups and replace for Kidd.

all those teams still win the ring.

D-Will4Prez
01-21-2011, 10:48 PM
Denver runs the one on one system, which encourages Melo's "selfishness" and definitely negates the team aspect. That being said, I'm really not sure how Melo would do in an actual team based system. I'm not sure what NY runs but I'm wondering if he will do better or worse. One can assume worse because he actually has to share the ball w/ Stoudemire but he could actually do better because defenses will be letting up on him. And being that the one on one system is the only system Melo has run in the NBA, he may not even be as successful.

hyb152
01-21-2011, 10:52 PM
Melo will never lead a team anywhere as the main guy like he was in Denver...he needs to be a lebron james next to a wade.....
a gasol, next to a kobe....
etc....

You've got it backwards. Wade is next to Lebron and Kobe is next to Gasol. Lebron is the distributer and playmaker on that heat team. Lebron makes the heat go. Every game Lebron puts up 10 assists to go along with 23 points while Wade scores 28 points. A 5 point difference is hardly anything, but a 7 assist difference is pretty big.

And Gasol is the focal point of the lakers and their triangle offense. They play inside-out. Gasol is such a great passer from the post. He can not only dominate the paint, but he can spread the defense because he shoot from mid range. Kobe's numbers sky-rocketed when Gasol came to the team and they've been to 3 championship rounds all 3 years gasol was there. Gasol is the new Shaq for the lakers. Shaq dominated and was the #1 option. Kobe fed of Shaq. Shaq left and the big man was Brian Grant... hardly a threat. Ever since gasol came, a legitiment inside guy, lakers started succeeding again. Yes Kobe will close out games, but it's a fact that the lakers offense starts and succeeds with Pau Gasol. The miami heat succeed because of Lebron. He's the 6'9 point guard of that team and he makes them go. You got them backwards.

Hellcrooner
01-21-2011, 11:18 PM
You've got it backwards. Wade is next to Lebron and Kobe is next to Gasol. Lebron is the distributer and playmaker on that heat team. Lebron makes the heat go. Every game Lebron puts up 10 assists to go along with 23 points while Wade scores 28 points. A 5 point difference is hardly anything, but a 7 assist difference is pretty big.

And Gasol is the focal point of the lakers and their triangle offense. They play inside-out. Gasol is such a great passer from the post. He can not only dominate the paint, but he can spread the defense because he shoot from mid range. Kobe's numbers sky-rocketed when Gasol came to the team and they've been to 3 championship rounds all 3 years gasol was there. Gasol is the new Shaq for the lakers. Shaq dominated and was the #1 option. Kobe fed of Shaq. Shaq left and the big man was Brian Grant... hardly a threat. Ever since gasol came, a legitiment inside guy, lakers started succeeding again. Yes Kobe will close out games, but it's a fact that the lakers offense starts and succeeds with Pau Gasol. The miami heat succeed because of Lebron. He's the 6'9 point guard of that team and he makes them go. You got them backwards.

its bout to rain on you a lot of **** from Kobe fans in 10,9,8,7,6,5,4.....

Sixerlover
01-21-2011, 11:46 PM
You've got it backwards. Wade is next to Lebron and Kobe is next to Gasol. Lebron is the distributer and playmaker on that heat team. Lebron makes the heat go. Every game Lebron puts up 10 assists to go along with 23 points while Wade scores 28 points. A 5 point difference is hardly anything, but a 7 assist difference is pretty big.

And Gasol is the focal point of the lakers and their triangle offense. They play inside-out. Gasol is such a great passer from the post. He can not only dominate the paint, but he can spread the defense because he shoot from mid range. Kobe's numbers sky-rocketed when Gasol came to the team and they've been to 3 championship rounds all 3 years gasol was there. Gasol is the new Shaq for the lakers. Shaq dominated and was the #1 option. Kobe fed of Shaq. Shaq left and the big man was Brian Grant... hardly a threat. Ever since gasol came, a legitiment inside guy, lakers started succeeding again. Yes Kobe will close out games, but it's a fact that the lakers offense starts and succeeds with Pau Gasol. The miami heat succeed because of Lebron. He's the 6'9 point guard of that team and he makes them go. You got them backwards.

I hope your prepared..

Anilyzer
01-21-2011, 11:49 PM
You've got it backwards. Wade is next to Lebron and Kobe is next to Gasol. Lebron is the distributer and playmaker on that heat team. Lebron makes the heat go. Every game Lebron puts up 10 assists to go along with 23 points while Wade scores 28 points. A 5 point difference is hardly anything, but a 7 assist difference is pretty big.

And Gasol is the focal point of the lakers and their triangle offense. They play inside-out. Gasol is such a great passer from the post. He can not only dominate the paint, but he can spread the defense because he shoot from mid range. Kobe's numbers sky-rocketed when Gasol came to the team and they've been to 3 championship rounds all 3 years gasol was there. Gasol is the new Shaq for the lakers. Shaq dominated and was the #1 option. Kobe fed of Shaq. Shaq left and the big man was Brian Grant... hardly a threat. Ever since gasol came, a legitiment inside guy, lakers started succeeding again. Yes Kobe will close out games, but it's a fact that the lakers offense starts and succeeds with Pau Gasol. The miami heat succeed because of Lebron. He's the 6'9 point guard of that team and he makes them go. You got them backwards.


Basketball is a team sport. Good basketball is always played through teamwork. A great coach like Phil Jackson or Greg Popovich is probably the true MVP.

You can draw lots of correlations based on statistics, as far as what combinations of players did better, or which players improved which players stats, or vice versa...

but the fact is that over a limited sample size, and with no way to test different combinations, it seems inevitable that you will be forced to just speculate about the causality involved in a particular statistical correlation; e.g., "Kobe's efficiency improved when Pau got there because Pau is a great passer from the post/efficient scorer/has a funny haircut" etc etc

I mean, there are so many factors involved, including opponents etc, AND you only have a very limited sample size to work with (82 games a season). One thing is sure: a coach like Jackson or Popovich is always working to get the players to mesh and play together, so that the "whole" is greater than the sum of the parts. That's the whole thing. A player like Melo carries a mediocre team on his back for eight years... it's hard to speculate what he'd be like in another system.

my suspicion is that coaches like Popovich would be absolutely drooling over he prospect of plugging Carmelo into their system

arkanian215
01-22-2011, 01:04 AM
The title is a bit misleading (and What ‘Advanced’ Stats Miss About...). He's using advanced stats to backup his opinion so advanced stats didn't miss. It's really how you handle them. One thing the writer didn't do was compare how Anthony's impact on the players around him compared to elite, all star, and average players.

JayW_1023
01-22-2011, 05:08 AM
I'm guessing Denver won't drop off much if they keep Chauncey and JR Smith gets Melo's shots

Melo is just a really good pure scorer, and really he doesn't do much else out there.

nickdymez
01-22-2011, 12:12 PM
This site is in love with "advanced stats". I just watch the games and form my opinion that way. Thats why the people here are so quick to argue with me, because i dont think people actually watch games here..... Melo is a beast

pd1dish
01-22-2011, 01:08 PM
I actually think this is suspect work, and the article's so called "strong points" for Melo have actually been discussed and imo, are mostly false. Melo is a great player, but he isn't a top 5-8 kind of guy that can put a team on his back. His inefficiencies are simple to point out, despite his gaudy per game numbers and team success (to a degree anyways)

he doesnt need to be the type of guy that puts a team on his back. you guys keep saying hes not a top player in the NBA. im sure a lot of you would also say Lebron is a top 2-3 player or even the best in the NBA which is true, but obviously lebron couldnt put a team on his back to win a championship. he had 7 years to do it at cleveland and it never got done. he couldnt do it by himself. so dont expect really anyone to be able to put a team on their backs and win. in recent years, who has done it?? no one. the current powerhouses are the lakers, who have kobe, gasol, he had shaq, and the best role players in the league around them. the celtics had a big 3 and great role players to get it done. D wade was the last one i can think of but he even had shaq, jason williams, alonzo mourning, antoine walker, gary payton (hell of an old team, but a lot of experienced all-stars).

it just doesnt happen and it doesnt matter either because melo is going to most likely end up with the knicks who have amare and other great role players, hes not going to have to put the team up on his back.

Kashmir13579
01-22-2011, 03:13 PM
Well if you want to know the teams #'s without Bron or Durant on the court you can find it at basketballvalue.com, if you want to look at the stats his teammates put up with and without him on the court the data is only readily available at 82games.com from 04-05 to 08-09.

If you want to do a study like this one then you have to look at the #'s the player put up before and after said player just make sure to only look at the most recent performance. It makes no sense to credit Melo for an uptick that wouldve happened regardless of his presence (as is the case with citing the improvement of young players), and try to consider the players usage before and after, as that in itself has an effect on a players efficiency.

I plan on doing something similar for all the elite players but thats a tall order right now. Im in a heavy nyquil coma


Thanks Chronz, i'm thinking about doing something similar. and LOL at the nyquil coma.

1 last question, is it true that only in rare cases will a payers PER or TS% increase alongside their USG%. ?
for instance, David Lees PER skyrocketed in 2009 as did his USG%, but having trouble finding anyone whos TS% increases with a higher USG%

Billups would be the closest thing i've found to that. in 2009 his USG% was the highest its ever been at 24.3 and his PER increased from an 18.8 the year before (detroit) to a 20.2. (denver). and his TS% increased from .589 to .601. billups was declining already at that point so its hard to argue playing alongside Melo didn't help him reach those numbers.

Kashmir13579
01-22-2011, 03:16 PM
The title is a bit misleading (and What ‘Advanced’ Stats Miss About...). He's using advanced stats to backup his opinion so advanced stats didn't miss. It's really how you handle them. One thing the writer didn't do was compare how Anthony's impact on the players around him compared to elite, all star, and average players.

B1, sorry i tried to post the actual title, but it got cut off.

B2, true, thats what i wanna see. it may take me a couple hours to sort through the numbers and i'm not interested in doing that this afternoon.

IamKaiserSoze
01-22-2011, 04:09 PM
thats what i been tryin to say!!!!

melo is boss....top 10 nba player today (i have him at 6)theres just some things advanced stats miss (even though i do love them for ball) and this article hit the nail on the head

more open shots for teammates because of the threat of carmelo

and because wilson chandler/gallo/ and fields post a higher TS% doesnt make them better than melo

hes a top 10 player and a differencemaker out there on the basketball floor...he would have a positive effect if he went to the knicks and those players would get more open J's

the nba blows if melo is a top six player. not top ten either. he's a good scorer. thats it.

Hawkeye15
01-22-2011, 06:21 PM
This site is in love with "advanced stats". I just watch the games and form my opinion that way. Thats why the people here are so quick to argue with me, because i dont think people actually watch games here..... Melo is a beast

well, you need to get your eyes checked from the posts I have read.

Sactown
01-22-2011, 06:22 PM
Melo can win a chip with the right team.. and he can be the leader of that team, just takes chemistry

Hawkeye15
01-22-2011, 06:24 PM
he doesnt need to be the type of guy that puts a team on his back. you guys keep saying hes not a top player in the NBA. im sure a lot of you would also say Lebron is a top 2-3 player or even the best in the NBA which is true, but obviously lebron couldnt put a team on his back to win a championship. he had 7 years to do it at cleveland and it never got done. he couldnt do it by himself. so dont expect really anyone to be able to put a team on their backs and win. in recent years, who has done it?? no one. the current powerhouses are the lakers, who have kobe, gasol, he had shaq, and the best role players in the league around them. the celtics had a big 3 and great role players to get it done. D wade was the last one i can think of but he even had shaq, jason williams, alonzo mourning, antoine walker, gary payton (hell of an old team, but a lot of experienced all-stars).

it just doesnt happen and it doesnt matter either because melo is going to most likely end up with the knicks who have amare and other great role players, hes not going to have to put the team up on his back.

correct. You would be hard pressed to put together a realistic lineup with Melo as the best player on it, that would win a ring. At least in the real world (sure anyone could just pick and pull players from teams to form the ultimate compliments to Melo's game).

Of course nobody can put a team on their back and win it by themselves. That is why when you have to read Kobe supporters pull his rings out to show he is the best, its ridiculous. Basketball is a team game.

I am simply saying Melo should not be considered with LeBron, Paul, Dwight, Durant, Kobe, Wade, as far the elite players in the NBA. Is he a top 10-15 player? for sure. Melo is a baller. But he isn't an "elite" player, unless your term of elite has a lot of players in it.

Hawkeye15
01-22-2011, 06:26 PM
Thanks Chronz, i'm thinking about doing something similar. and LOL at the nyquil coma.

1 last question, is it true that only in rare cases will a payers PER or TS% increase alongside their USG%. ?
for instance, David Lees PER skyrocketed in 2009 as did his USG%, but having trouble finding anyone whos TS% increases with a higher USG%

Billups would be the closest thing i've found to that. in 2009 his USG% was the highest its ever been at 24.3 and his PER increased from an 18.8 the year before (detroit) to a 20.2. (denver). and his TS% increased from .589 to .601. billups was declining already at that point so its hard to argue playing alongside Melo didn't help him reach those numbers.

because its beyond rare. Usually, as a players usage goes up, their shooting goes down.
Billups is an example of not only Melo's help, but a savvy vet in decline stage, just getting plain smarter with shot selection.

superkegger
01-22-2011, 06:28 PM
Ignoring the flaws in the article for a minute, I don't understand how you go from what the article says to making your thread title to say Melo is the Ultimate team player. The article is making the assertion that's he's more than a volume scorer. How does his ability to score in many ways make him a team player? How does that jump get made? I don't get it

Sactown
01-22-2011, 06:29 PM
correct. You would be hard pressed to put together a realistic lineup with Melo as the best player on it, that would win a ring. At least in the real world (sure anyone could just pick and pull players from teams to form the ultimate compliments to Melo's game).

Of course nobody can put a team on their back and win it by themselves. That is why when you have to read Kobe supporters pull his rings out to show he is the best, its ridiculous. Basketball is a team game.

I am simply saying Melo should not be considered with LeBron, Paul, Dwight, Durant, Kobe, Wade, as far the elite players in the NBA. Is he a top 10-15 player? for sure. Melo is a baller. But he isn't an "elite" player, unless your term of elite has a lot of players in it.

What 9-14 people would you put ahead of him? just curious

Hawkeye15
01-22-2011, 06:36 PM
What 9-14 people would you put ahead of him? just curious

LeBron
Paul
Wade
Dwight
Durant
Deron
Dirk
Amare
Gasol
Rose
Manu

all playing better. If I am looking at the past 7 years to judge

Duncan
KG
LeBron
Wade
Paul
Kobe
Dwight
Durant
Dirk
Amare
Deron

in no particular order anyways.

Sactown
01-22-2011, 06:39 PM
LeBron
Paul
Wade
Dwight
Durant
Deron
Dirk
Amare
Gasol
Rose
Manu

all playing better. If I am looking at the past 7 years to judge

Duncan
KG
LeBron
Wade
Paul
Kobe
Dwight
Durant
Dirk
Amare
Deron

in no particular order anyways.

Hard for me to put these guys ahead of Melo especially Amare in the last 7 years.. but the others I say are pretty fair, so I guess I'd have him at 9
but what portion do you define as elite?

Hawkeye15
01-22-2011, 06:41 PM
Hard for me to put these guys ahead of Melo especially Amare in the last 7 years.. but the others I say are pretty fair, so I guess I'd have him at 9
but what portion do you define as elite?

top portion was for this year only.

bottom includes the last 7ish years.

I would guess there are nowhere more than 5-7 players in any given year that are elite. Don't hold me to that number, some years are stronger than others. But I think there are usually 5-7 guys that separate themselves from the pack.

I will also add, just cause I have Melo around #12 this season, doesn't mean I didn't have him higher in another.

Sactown
01-22-2011, 06:45 PM
top portion was for this year only.

bottom includes the last 7ish years.

I would guess there are nowhere more than 5-7 players in any given year that are elite. Don't hold me to that number, some years are stronger than others. But I think there are usually 5-7 guys that separate themselves from the pack.

I will also add, just cause I have Melo around #12 this season, doesn't mean I didn't have him higher in another.

Oh I know, but still minus this season I consistently put him above Amare..

Kashmir13579
01-22-2011, 07:44 PM
correct. You would be hard pressed to put together a realistic lineup with Melo as the best player on it, that would win a ring. At least in the real world (sure anyone could just pick and pull players from teams to form the ultimate compliments to Melo's game).



lets look at it this way. Paul Pierces' stats before the 07-08 season looked very similar to 'Melos; a high volume shooter with subpar %s and PER.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=anthoca01&y1=2011&p2=piercpa01&y2=2007

after KG and Allen(not to mention Rondo) made their ways to Boston, Pierces shooting numbers skyrocketed.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=piercpa01&y1=2008

Pierce may not be considered as the 'best' player on Boston, but in that locker-room Pierce is the boss. He is their clutch shooter in late game situations and when Boston won in 2008 it was because Pierce was playing out-of-his-mind. Could Melo not pull a Paul Pierce??

and lastly, on a team like Boston, when you have soo many above average players, does it really matter who is the clear cut "best player" on the team.

for this debate to even be relivent many things have to happen LOL. first of all the Knicks have to get Melo, then they have to find a way to keep Gallo and Fields, THEN they have to sign Chris Paul and all three of them will have to take pay cuts. Not to mention get a real coach.

or...

Melo could go to the Bulls.

D1JM
01-22-2011, 08:12 PM
lets look at it this way. Paul Pierces' stats before the 07-08 season looked very similar to 'Melos; a high volume shooter with subpar %s and PER.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=anthoca01&y1=2011&p2=piercpa01&y2=2007

after KG and Allen(not to mention Rondo) made their ways to Boston, Pierces shooting numbers skyrocketed.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=piercpa01&y1=2008

Pierce may not be considered as the 'best' player on Boston, but in that locker-room Pierce is the boss. He is their clutch shooter in late game situations and when Boston won in 2008 it was because Pierce was playing out-of-his-mind. Could Melo not pull a Paul Pierce??

and lastly, on a team like Boston, when you have soo many above average players, does it really matter who is the clear cut "best player" on the team.

for this debate to even be relivent many things have to happen LOL. first of all the Knicks have to get Melo, then they have to find a way to keep Gallo and Fields, THEN they have to sign Chris Paul and all three of them will have to take pay cuts. Not to mention get a real coach.

or...

Melo could go to the Bulls.

not going to happen.

Kashmir13579
01-22-2011, 08:47 PM
not going to happen.

i hope not

JonnyBrav000
01-22-2011, 08:55 PM
Considering ANY player can win a championship with the right players around him, this is a meaningless statement.



Fixed


Considering you're just sour grapes cause Melo doesn't want to stay on your team, anything you say is meaningless. Stop your hate, Melo is a top 10 baller, a superstar, and When he leaves Denver, the team is dropping out of playoff contention next season.

Hawkeye15
01-22-2011, 09:50 PM
lets look at it this way. Paul Pierces' stats before the 07-08 season looked very similar to 'Melos; a high volume shooter with subpar %s and PER.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=anthoca01&y1=2011&p2=piercpa01&y2=2007

after KG and Allen(not to mention Rondo) made their ways to Boston, Pierces shooting numbers skyrocketed.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=piercpa01&y1=2008

Pierce may not be considered as the 'best' player on Boston, but in that locker-room Pierce is the boss. He is their clutch shooter in late game situations and when Boston won in 2008 it was because Pierce was playing out-of-his-mind. Could Melo not pull a Paul Pierce??

and lastly, on a team like Boston, when you have soo many above average players, does it really matter who is the clear cut "best player" on the team.

for this debate to even be relivent many things have to happen LOL. first of all the Knicks have to get Melo, then they have to find a way to keep Gallo and Fields, THEN they have to sign Chris Paul and all three of them will have to take pay cuts. Not to mention get a real coach.

or...

Melo could go to the Bulls.

the way the Celtics got their championship team is something that is a 1/100000 chance now. They hit the perfect storm of aged vets coming from bad teams, and had the parts to pull it off.

When you have roster support like Boston does, or Detroit did in 04', you are now talking about situations that are not in fact common in the slightest. Boston sold their future away to win a ring. But I would be hard pressed to find a Boston fan who cares. In 3 years or so, they will suck. But it will have been worth it.

Point is, ANY player can win a ring with the right surroundings. But making Melo your #1, makes it awfully difficult to get it right.

D1JM
01-22-2011, 10:34 PM
Considering you're just sour grapes cause Melo doesn't want to stay on your team, anything you say is meaningless. Stop your hate, Melo is a top 10 baller, a superstar, and When he leaves Denver, the team is dropping out of playoff contention next season.

I thought chronz was a clipper fan?

Chronz
01-22-2011, 11:04 PM
1 last question, is it true that only in rare cases will a payers PER or TS% increase alongside their USG%. ?
A players PER almost always increases with a higher usage, it has a tendency to overrate chuckers but if you see someones PER go down with a higher usage then it usually means hes out of his element in a role not favorable to his game.

A players TS% usually drops if it doesnt then there is likely to be other areas of his game that become less efficient, which is why its best to look at their Off. RTG in conjunction with their usage.


for instance, David Lees PER skyrocketed in 2009 as did his USG%, but having trouble finding anyone whos TS% increases with a higher USG%

Billups would be the closest thing i've found to that. in 2009 his USG% was the highest its ever been at 24.3 and his PER increased from an 18.8 the year before (detroit) to a 20.2. (denver). and his TS% increased from .589 to .601. billups was declining already at that point so its hard to argue playing alongside Melo didn't help him reach those numbers.

Actually his 18.8PER was from the 2009 campaign (his first season in Denver) and was a noticeable dropoff from the year prior (Career best 23.6). His #'s did improve the next year but werent like his Detroit days. Not that I would blame Melo because like you said he was entering the age where players tend to decline and all things considered it was your typical Billups type season.

Though a deeper look at his court time alongside Melo in 09 reveals that he actually shot better from the field, got to the line more frequently, and scored more as a result in the minutes he didnt share with Melo. The team wasnt as good but it wasnt for lack of effort on his part. The only drawback was that he was more turnover prone. I dont know the numbers from the 2010 season.

As for David Lee, Im reserving judgement until the end of the season but theres reason to think Monta makes his teammates worse, hes just having a horrible year even by his rookie standards.

Anilyzer
01-23-2011, 01:28 AM
LeBron
Paul
Wade
Dwight
Durant
Deron
Dirk
Amare
Gasol
Rose
Manu





I'm new to NBA advanced stats and all; but I just don't see how you can leave Kobe off that list. Kobe's APER is ~26, which puts him ahead of half of that list.


Are you factoring in that the Laker's system or teammates increases Kobe's efficiency? Does that downgrade him?


Anyways, regarding Carmelo... I don't understand these statistics enough to really be sure, but I feel like he is being underrated somehow.

Just from glancing at it, it seems that as a pure scorer, if he's not getting many assists (bad team system, teammates missing, etc) and also not very many rebounds, then that would affect his EFF and APER. It seems that many somewhat marginal players are ranked ahead of him, players who would be hard-pressed to match up with him head to head, seemingly because of a balance of statistics. It appears to favor players who shoot a high percentage from inside and grab more rebounds -- guys who are catching the ball inside. Assists probably also figure in prominently.

It just seems inevitable that a guy like Manu, Duncan, Tony Parker, Dirk or Dwight are benefiting heavily from being in a system where they are catching the ball in rhythm in the right spots of the floor, and have teammates they know and can rely on to pass the ball to and who make shots.

Since the teams are running good plays, a high percentage of the time they will get an open pass or a good shot, and will rarely take low percentage shots or turn the ball over. It seems likely that if you plugged Carmelo into Manu's role on the Spurs, his EFF/APER #'s would go up considerably, given his post scoring ability and outside shooting.

... I could be totally wrong... this is interesting though...

Kashmir13579
01-23-2011, 06:07 AM
the way the Celtics got their championship team is something that is a 1/100000 chance now. They hit the perfect storm of aged vets coming from bad teams, and had the parts to pull it off.

When you have roster support like Boston does, or Detroit did in 04', you are now talking about situations that are not in fact common in the slightest. Boston sold their future away to win a ring. But I would be hard pressed to find a Boston fan who cares. In 3 years or so, they will suck. But it will have been worth it.

Point is, ANY player can win a ring with the right surroundings. But making Melo your #1, makes it awfully difficult to get it right.

haha. i kinda disagree about the celtics but i was just looking at pierce in comparison to melo. as i knicks fan i'd love to believe the celtics will suck in a few years. i just dont see it happening. im a rondo guy; you arent. lol. they might have an off year or two when the big three hang up their jerseys, but they'll be back soon IMO

Hawkeye15
01-23-2011, 07:50 AM
I'm new to NBA advanced stats and all; but I just don't see how you can leave Kobe off that list. Kobe's APER is ~26, which puts him ahead of half of that list.


Are you factoring in that the Laker's system or teammates increases Kobe's efficiency? Does that downgrade him?


Anyways, regarding Carmelo... I don't understand these statistics enough to really be sure, but I feel like he is being underrated somehow.

Just from glancing at it, it seems that as a pure scorer, if he's not getting many assists (bad team system, teammates missing, etc) and also not very many rebounds, then that would affect his EFF and APER. It seems that many somewhat marginal players are ranked ahead of him, players who would be hard-pressed to match up with him head to head, seemingly because of a balance of statistics. It appears to favor players who shoot a high percentage from inside and grab more rebounds -- guys who are catching the ball inside. Assists probably also figure in prominently.

It just seems inevitable that a guy like Manu, Duncan, Tony Parker, Dirk or Dwight are benefiting heavily from being in a system where they are catching the ball in rhythm in the right spots of the floor, and have teammates they know and can rely on to pass the ball to and who make shots.

Since the teams are running good plays, a high percentage of the time they will get an open pass or a good shot, and will rarely take low percentage shots or turn the ball over. It seems likely that if you plugged Carmelo into Manu's role on the Spurs, his EFF/APER #'s would go up considerably, given his post scoring ability and outside shooting.

... I could be totally wrong... this is interesting though...

nope, left Kobe off totally by mistake. My bad. He is obviously in that list

Hawkeye15
01-23-2011, 07:53 AM
haha. i kinda disagree about the celtics but i was just looking at pierce in comparison to melo. as i knicks fan i'd love to believe the celtics will suck in a few years. i just dont see it happening. im a rondo guy; you arent. lol. they might have an off year or two when the big three hang up their jerseys, but they'll be back soon IMO

love Rondo, but he isn't carrying a team to 50 wins.

Pierce is a decent comparison to Melo actually. And that is the type of situation it will take for Melo to "lead" a team to a ring. Pierce may have been finals MVP, and some may say he is/was the best player on the C's, but its completely debateable.
You are also not factoring in how horrible Ainge has been prior to him getting the ultimate package dropped on him. I am not as confident as you are the Celtics will contend when the big 3 are done, at least not for a while. Teams that sit on their aging stars without replenishing tend to struggle a while when done.

jonathon_ashton
01-23-2011, 08:25 AM
In my opinion...Melo is a top 10 player in the association, maybe top 5. But, you cant say im wrong when i say Melo is all about Melo, and not his team based solely on the DUI incident. That being said, the dude dont talk ****...period. You never hear of him talking ****. What about the Durant-tula. KD baby!

The Smurf
01-23-2011, 12:23 PM
That article is fantastic. It is a complete manipulation and bastardization of statistics in the finest form. To call Melo the ULTIMATE team player is laughable. This article could have been titled "teams not worried about anyone but Melo on the Nuggets". I dont think anyone argues that Melo isnt one of the best players on the planet. The argument is over whether he is top 10 or 10-20. I'd go with the later.

Kashmir13579
01-23-2011, 04:10 PM
love Rondo, but he isn't carrying a team to 50 wins.

Pierce is a decent comparison to Melo actually. And that is the type of situation it will take for Melo to "lead" a team to a ring. Pierce may have been finals MVP, and some may say he is/was the best player on the C's, but its completely debateable.
You are also not factoring in how horrible Ainge has been prior to him getting the ultimate package dropped on him. I am not as confident as you are the Celtics will contend when the big 3 are done, at least not for a while. Teams that sit on their aging stars without replenishing tend to struggle a while when done.


i know exactly my point. i was merely comparing Pierces arc as a player to what 'melos could look like (maybe)(hopefully):D

and hawk, you do know all the cap room boston will have when the big 3 hang it up right? just give rondo a couple chips to play with and he'll be alrgiht IMO. like i said, as a knicks fan, LOL, i hope that is not the case and that you are right.

Kashmir13579
01-23-2011, 04:12 PM
A players PER almost always increases with a higher usage, it has a tendency to overrate chuckers but if you see someones PER go down with a higher usage then it usually means hes out of his element in a role not favorable to his game.

A players TS% usually drops if it doesnt then there is likely to be other areas of his game that become less efficient, which is why its best to look at their Off. RTG in conjunction with their usage.


Actually his 18.8PER was from the 2009 campaign (his first season in Denver) and was a noticeable dropoff from the year prior (Career best 23.6). His #'s did improve the next year but werent like his Detroit days. Not that I would blame Melo because like you said he was entering the age where players tend to decline and all things considered it was your typical Billups type season.

Though a deeper look at his court time alongside Melo in 09 reveals that he actually shot better from the field, got to the line more frequently, and scored more as a result in the minutes he didnt share with Melo. The team wasnt as good but it wasnt for lack of effort on his part. The only drawback was that he was more turnover prone. I dont know the numbers from the 2010 season.

As for David Lee, Im reserving judgement until the end of the season but theres reason to think Monta makes his teammates worse, hes just having a horrible year even by his rookie standards.

thanks for the insight and clarification, hoss. much obliged

Hawkeye15
01-23-2011, 04:22 PM
i know exactly my point. i was merely comparing Pierces arc as a player to what 'melos could look like (maybe)(hopefully):D

and hawk, you do know all the cap room boston will have when the big 3 hang it up right? just give rondo a couple chips to play with and he'll be alrgiht IMO. like i said, as a knicks fan, LOL, i hope that is not the case and that you are right.

cap room is as valuable as what you do with it. As I said before, Boston, before those trades happened, was poorly run. We don't know what players will be free agents as those players leave, and we don't know what the salary cap structure will look like.
Just don't count your chickens before the eggs hatch when trying to dissect where a franchise will be in a few years.

Kashmir13579
01-23-2011, 04:47 PM
cap room is as valuable as what you do with it. As I said before, Boston, before those trades happened, was poorly run. We don't know what players will be free agents as those players leave, and we don't know what the salary cap structure will look like.
Just don't count your chickens before the eggs hatch when trying to dissect where a franchise will be in a few years.

i can only hope that you are right.

Anilyzer
01-23-2011, 05:06 PM
love Rondo, but he isn't carrying a team to 50 wins.

Pierce is a decent comparison to Melo actually. And that is the type of situation it will take for Melo to "lead" a team to a ring. Pierce may have been finals MVP, and some may say he is/was the best player on the C's, but its completely debateable.
You are also not factoring in how horrible Ainge has been prior to him getting the ultimate package dropped on him. I am not as confident as you are the Celtics will contend when the big 3 are done, at least not for a while. Teams that sit on their aging stars without replenishing tend to struggle a while when done.


what I like about Boston is for instance Glenn Davis and players like that; the way they use tough team defense and big tough players inside. That's what was really dangerous for the Lakers in the Finals. Glenn Davis moves really well and is very beefy, and adding Shaq and Jermaine to the mix creates a very danggerous team.

Rondo is awesome too... consistently amazing. Of course Ray Allen and Pierce have a shelf life, but for now they are really really effective.

Pierce is hard to replace... but if in the future, say -Pierce -Allen -Garnett -Shaq -Jermaine they could still wind up being good if they make the tough hard nosed team defense a tradition and keep drafting tough players... or do like Jerry West used to always do, always take the best "athlete" at their draft position, regardless of position.

they will still need a centerpiece scorer type guy though... who knows maybe a Blake Griffin. Blake Griffin on the Celtics would match the personality

Hawkeye15
01-23-2011, 05:06 PM
i can only hope that you are right.

sometimes these theories I pull out of my butt actually work out. maybe this will be one of them...

Hawkeye15
01-23-2011, 05:09 PM
what I like about Boston is for instance Glenn Davis and players like that; the way they use tough team defense and big tough players inside. That's what was really dangerous for the Lakers in the Finals. Glenn Davis moves really well and is very beefy, and adding Shaq and Jermaine to the mix creates a very danggerous team.

Rondo is awesome too... consistently amazing. Of course Ray Allen and Pierce have a shelf life, but for now they are really really effective.

Pierce is hard to replace... but if in the future, say -Pierce -Allen -Garnett -Shaq -Jermaine they could still wind up being good if they make the tough hard nosed team defense a tradition and keep drafting tough players... or do like Jerry West used to always do, always take the best "athlete" at their draft position, regardless of position.

they will still need a centerpiece scorer type guy though... who knows maybe a Blake Griffin. Blake Griffin on the Celtics would match the personality


they can absolutely compete again if they do the right things. But historically, most teams that cling to their aging stars end up having a nice fall off for a bit. They haven't replinished with elite talent from the draft, have a series of role players, and just go down for at least a few years. Add to the fact that Ainge wasn't the best GM out there before KG and Allen landed in his lap
And Rondo is not a player you can build around. I have touched on that in another thread.

Kashmir13579
01-23-2011, 05:09 PM
sometimes these theories I pull out of my butt actually work out. maybe this will be one of them...

lmao. don't take that tone with me hawkeye:D

BkOriginalOne
01-23-2011, 05:10 PM
Melo would fit nicely in NY only because of the playing style.
They would need a great PG or C to complete it.
Imagine if the Knicks got Howard and Melo.

Hawkeye15
01-23-2011, 05:14 PM
Melo would fit nicely in NY only because of the playing style.
They would need a great PG or C to complete it.
Imagine if the Knicks got Howard and Melo.

eh, I don't know man. Melo has routinely been surrounded by defenders, and role players/shooters. NY is totally different than Denver. They are already a very efficient offensive team, and a bad defensive team. How does Melo change that for the better?
Melo is great, but the Knicks would be wiser to wait, and pursue Paul, and use Felton to get a defensive center/role player, imo

Kashmir13579
01-23-2011, 05:21 PM
eh, I don't know man. Melo has routinely been surrounded by defenders, and role players/shooters. NY is totally different than Denver. They are already a very efficient offensive team, and a bad defensive team. How does Melo change that for the better?
Melo is great, but the Knicks would be wiser to wait, and pursue Paul, and use Felton to get a defensive center/role player, imo

i agree only if mike d'antoni lives to coach another season in NY. such a ugly situation, imo.

Hawkeye15
01-23-2011, 05:33 PM
i agree only if mike d'antoni lives to coach another season in NY. such a ugly situation, imo.

yep. Mike does not play a style that is indicative of winning a chip.

Bornknick73
01-23-2011, 05:40 PM
eh, I don't know man. Melo has routinely been surrounded by defenders, and role players/shooters. NY is totally different than Denver. They are already a very efficient offensive team, and a bad defensive team. How does Melo change that for the better?
Melo is great, but the Knicks would be wiser to wait, and pursue Paul, and use Felton to get a defensive center/role player, imo

While this is true the Knicks are in a 6 game slide because they cant hit a shot for their life right now. Earlier in the season when Amar'e got swallowed by the D and Will and Gallo went cold we got destroyed.

I guess every team needs that second sure fire scorer when the offense isnt going right. Melo is that guy. We arent gonna run and gun in the playoffs we can all agree on that. If we dont have a guy like that we get killed offensively when the games start to slow down into half court affairs.

While he doesnt seem to be our most pressing need atm he does fill a need in the future if we want to contend with the big boys. Phoenix will tell you....you need at least 2. Get 2 then try to fill the rest out. Unless youre lucky enough to get 3. :)

But i think 2 perennial AllStars are a decent building block to start if youre trying to win it all. 40 something years....i should be that lucky. Cmon Donnie!!

Hawkeye15
01-23-2011, 05:45 PM
While this is true the Knicks are in a 6 game slide because they cant hit a shot for their life right now. Earlier in the season when Amar'e got swallowed by the D and Will and Gallo went cold we got destroyed.

I guess every team needs that second sure fire scorer when the offense isnt going right. Melo is that guy. We arent gonna run and gun in the playoffs we can all agree on that. If we dont have a guy like that we get killed offensively when the games start to slow down into half court affairs.

While he doesnt seem to be our most pressing need atm he does fill a need in the future if we want to contend with the big boys. Phoenix will tell you....you need at least 2. Get 2 then try to fill the rest out. Unless youre lucky enough to get 3. :)

But i think 2 perennial AllStars are a decent building block to start if youre trying to win it all. 40 something years....i should be that lucky. Cmon Donnie!!


The Knicks need defenders so badly. Even the best teams have nights they can't hit the broad side of a barn, but many times, those teams get the W anyways.
Its not that Melo wouldn't help them. But if they need to gut their team a bit to get him, I see no point at all.

Bornknick73
01-23-2011, 05:46 PM
yep. Mike does not play a style that is indicative of winning a chip.

I wont argue there.

Best case scenario he gets fired and I can start looking at players like Kendrick Perkins again. A FA this summer and its like I cant look at him because he doesnt fit the offense.

97NYer
01-23-2011, 06:12 PM
Melo is an incredible player, but if he were to come to the Knicks we would have to make some adjustments. First off we are starting Chandler at PF and Landry at SG. They are rumored to be involved in the trade. Therefore, Melo would either have to play the PF or SG spot (Gallo is not as versatile as Landry or Chandler, good SF but not a SG or PF.) We would need to bring Gallo off the bench and get an SG and PF to fill out the starting lineup. Our only current options would be Azubuike, Toney Douglas, Andy Rautins, Bill Walker and Roger Mason JR. at the SG, and Turiaf or Mozgov as our center.

This is assuming that we lose Randolph, Chandler, Fields, and Curry in the trade.

Sixerlover
01-23-2011, 06:45 PM
If Melo goes to NY plan #1 should be getting a defensive SG and a defensive C

Kashmir13579
01-23-2011, 07:04 PM
I wont argue there.

Best case scenario he gets fired and I can start looking at players like Kendrick Perkins again. A FA this summer and its like I cant look at him because he doesnt fit the offense.

lmfao. shoot me now if the knicks make it to the second round and he gets an extension. such a lose-lose situation for me. i was hoping we would've tanked the west coast trip when we were 3-8; that way Mike would've gotten fired and we still would've had time to salvage the season. ughhh.

Anilyzer
01-24-2011, 04:58 AM
they can absolutely compete again if they do the right things. But historically, most teams that cling to their aging stars end up having a nice fall off for a bit. They haven't replinished with elite talent from the draft, have a series of role players, and just go down for at least a few years. Add to the fact that Ainge wasn't the best GM out there before KG and Allen landed in his lap
And Rondo is not a player you can build around. I have touched on that in another thread.


well, Boston had been noncompetive on a losing streak for what... 20 years or something? when like you said Garnett and Allen landed in their lap.

it took me a while to get used to the idea of Boston being good... but they were, and still are actually. But yeah, it's not farfetched to picture Boston at the bottom of the Eastern standings for 10 or 20 years... we know they can do it...