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View Full Version : Economics Professor: Melo only worth 6 wins, LeBron worth 27



*Superman*
01-13-2011, 09:01 PM
Statistically speaking, neither team's fan base should get too excited.

Mr. Anthony is on pace to finish this season worth the equivalent of 6.8 wins, using the metric "Wins Produced" that predicts how statistics correlate to winning. Developed by Southern Utah University economics professor David Berri, Wins Produced devalues scoring totals in favor of other stats, particularly shooting efficiency.

Essentially, Mr. Anthony scores like an elite player, but he requires more shots to put up his numbers than a true superstar. This season, Mr. Anthony holds an effective field goal percentage—a weighted statistic that takes 3-pointers into account—of 45.1%. By comparison, LeBron James's effective field goal percentage is 52%. A franchise player, Mr. Berri says, will produce between 25-30 wins a season. Chris Paul is on pace to have 25.8 Wins Produced this season. Last year, Mr. James had 27.2, and Dwight Howard had 22.3.

Mr. Berri concluded that New Jersey would win about 30 games over a full season if the latest reported 13-player, three-team deal goes through, which involves sending Derrick Favors and Devin Harris to Denver. The Nets would also acquire Chauncey Billups and Richard Hamilton.

Trading for Mr. Anthony could be even more devastating for the Knicks. Their proposed deal would force them to move two of their most productive players: Landry Fields (on pace for 17.6 Wins Produced) and Wilson Chandler (10.3). If the Knicks replaced Messrs. Fields and Chandler with Mr. Anthony, Mr. Berri predicts they would win roughly 29 games over a full year.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704803604576078183871144402.html?K EYWORDS=carmelo+anthony

Interesting stuff. List also includes CP3, Wade, Dwight and Durant.

acehole
01-13-2011, 09:05 PM
interesting but this kinda stuff is completely useless and irrelevant.

thenyknicks
01-13-2011, 09:06 PM
and this guy takes the cake as a know nothing of basketball of all time.

jetsfan28
01-13-2011, 09:07 PM
Unless the economics professor has only studied one year of economics, he should know that things don't actually happen in a vacuum and that changing circumstances change things. The Knicks, with better 3 point shooting and a dominant scoring big man, provide a better environment for Melo to score efficiently (not to mention the awful chemistry plaguing that team right now). Chandler and Fields would become less efficient elsewhere (especially Fields, who piles up rebounds on a team that can't rebound and gets a ton of open looks from 3), while Melo would become more efficient.

Corey
01-13-2011, 09:08 PM
I think saying the Knicks would only win 29 games is silly.

ATX
01-13-2011, 09:08 PM
I still think Carmelo on the Knicks minus Feilds, Chandler, even Gallinari would be scary. Maybe not this season so much, but NY would have a hell of a core with Melo, Amare, Felton. NY is lacking that true scoring option aside Amare.

Kobes a Killer
01-13-2011, 09:09 PM
Useless and irrelevant!!!! These stats are stupid...soooo Chandler and Fields are better than melo??? I dont care what you say Melos a stud, atleast he has a jump shot

JayW_1023
01-13-2011, 09:09 PM
More indications Melo is probably not worth blowing up a Knicks team with a really bright future.

Here is to hoping the Knicks won't make any deal for Melo whatsoever. For one, I would love to see Melo pout in the Mile High for the rest of the year. He would probably voluntarily go on the inactive list...and JR Smith will get his shots. And if Chauncey stays the Nuggs will still finish the season with a winning record, even without their star.

Meanwhile The Knicks keep developing their promising perimeter trio of Fields, Gallo and Chandler, none of whom have hit their prime (while Melo is now entering his prime), and make a pitch for a good post defender before the trade deadline. This is how I hope it plays out.

smith&wesson
01-13-2011, 09:11 PM
pfffftttt lol

melo = top 5-10 player in the leauge. doesnt matter how you wanna look at stats and play with you calculator ... the man is one of the best in the league any team would love to have him.

amare + carmelo would be awesome.

arkanian215
01-13-2011, 09:14 PM
pfffftttt lol

melo = top 5-10 player in the leauge. doesnt matter how you wanna look at stats and play with you calculator ... the man is one of the best in the league any team would love to have him.

amare + carmelo would be awesome.

How's that shooting percentage? How's that defense?

Nikeman
01-13-2011, 09:15 PM
and this guy takes the cake as a know nothing of basketball of all time.

haha Knicks fans mad?

D Roses Bulls
01-13-2011, 09:16 PM
the difference between him and hollinger, this guy is a professor, hollinger is called a professor, but really isn't.

Corey
01-13-2011, 09:17 PM
How's that shooting percentage? How's that defense?

Took the words out of my mouth.

I like Melo, and I think he's a great scorer, but he does have some flaws that people don't often talk about.

Nikeman
01-13-2011, 09:17 PM
pfffftttt lol

melo = top 5-10 player in the leauge. doesnt matter how you wanna look at stats and play with you calculator ... the man is one of the best in the league any team would love to have him.

amare + carmelo would be awesome.

Not trying to hate, but these guys are the same players at diff positions.

Both score first mentality, I think this may take time to pan out, like the Heat's trio, specifically Wade and LeBron did

Swashcuff
01-13-2011, 09:18 PM
pfffftttt lol

melo = top 10-15 player in the leauge. doesnt matter how you wanna look at stats and play with you calculator ... the man is one of the best in the league any team would love to have him.

amare + carmelo would be awesome.

Fixed

With his play this season he's slipping out of that top 10 bracket. He was never a top 5 player either.

*Superman*
01-13-2011, 09:18 PM
More indications Melo is probably not worth blowing up a Knicks team with a really bright future.

Here is to hoping the Knicks won't make any deal for Melo whatsoever. For one, I would love to see Melo pout in the Mile High for the rest of the year. He would probably voluntarily go on the inactive list...and JR Smith will get his shots. And if Chauncey stays the Nuggs will still finish the season with a winning record, even without their star.

Meanwhile The Knicks keep developing their promising perimeter trio of Fields, Gallo and Chandler, none of whom have hit their prime (while Melo is now entering his prime), and make a pitch for a good post defender before the trade deadline. This is how I hope it plays out.

I agree. I am not sure about all the calculations and stuff he has done, but they need to keep those players and if Melo really wants to play for them, go to them in the summer. Thinking about the team, that is what he would do.

thenyknicks
01-13-2011, 09:18 PM
i got it now, its the wall street journal, owned by the same company that owns fox news. = the same people that hate new york and what it stands for. obviously an unfair and unbalanced use to statistics here.

JayW_1023
01-13-2011, 09:21 PM
Fields is the epitome of a role player you need, a rare rookie who thinks the game like a seasoned vet. Stoudemire has three scorers to help him out in Chandler, Felton and Gallo...all three are capable of picking up the slack.

With Melo, their offense will not only become more predictable, but also more stagnant. Players will be more reluctant to run and cut with Melo jacking up 20 to 25 shots a game without being that much of a willing passer.

Gone snappy ball movement. Gone offensive flow. Diminished transition opportunities because Melo's ISO sets also mean more LOW percentage shots.

I'm more and more convinced the Knicks should just concentrate on shoring up their interior D instead of trying to get Carmelo Anthony. Offensively they are pretty well balanced and that has gotten them more wins than they had in, gawd knows how long.

If they trade for Melo they'll regret it. I actually like this Knicks team, and STAT has suprised me by showing he is a better allround player than I thought he was. Walsh, don't make me dislike them by trading for Melo.

ATL#22
01-13-2011, 09:29 PM
Umm.. Either flawed or the report left something out. Baseball uses WAR which is wins over a replacement player (a fictional player that every team has in their minor leage system) so what is Melos 6 wins compared to?

Kobes a Killer
01-13-2011, 09:30 PM
I agree melo isn't top 5, but you can't name 10 players better than him. You guys don't give melo enough credit, he's an underrated rebounder, and better at D then you guys are giving him credit for, but you're right it is his weakness. I still remember melo playing great physical defense against Kobe in the playoffs 2 years a go, so I think he has D somewhere deep down inside

Ezio
01-13-2011, 09:32 PM
If Ben Stein said this then I would of believed it.

Kobes a Killer
01-13-2011, 09:34 PM
I agree superman12 the smart unselfish thing to do is make one last run with Denver and sign with new York during the summer allowing them to keep their young guys. I'm too lazy to erase the first part on my iPhone cause Denver will obviously trade him, just don't sign the extension and hope to go to Dallas or something as a rental

More-Than-Most
01-13-2011, 09:36 PM
I am not a James fan in the least but come on... He is easily a much better player than Anthony and it isn't even close. Anthony can score but his defense is a bit to be desired and that is just the beginning of some of his flaws... I would take Anthony any day of the week and twice on Sunday but if I had the choice of James or Anthony the choice wouldn't even be close.

llemon
01-13-2011, 09:38 PM
That sounds about right

John Walls Era
01-13-2011, 09:38 PM
Unless the economics professor has only studied one year of economics, he should know that things don't actually happen in a vacuum and that changing circumstances change things. The Knicks, with better 3 point shooting and a dominant scoring big man, provide a better environment for Melo to score efficiently (not to mention the awful chemistry plaguing that team right now). Chandler and Fields would become less efficient elsewhere (especially Fields, who piles up rebounds on a team that can't rebound and gets a ton of open looks from 3), while Melo would become more efficient.

TBH he just said so far in the season. Obviously Melo could be playing with no purpose right now.

JayW_1023
01-13-2011, 09:39 PM
Melo is a SF but his game is not that much different from Amares...he is a scorer. Amare is proving he can handle being the no.1 option. With Melo and the integral pieces the Knicks will have to give up to get him...the players will not have as defined roles than the team has now.

The Knicks are set offensively. They need some size and rebounding...not another scorer (even if he is the most skilled pure wing scorer). The Knicks' current crop of promising wingmen is better in the sum of it's parts than Melo can do by himself.

And maybe Melo can defend, but he has a rep of not always playing hard on that end. I would much rather see a guy like Fields as a wing defender, never giving up on a play. Even Gallo, who isn't a naturally great defender, plays hard on D.

I even remember Gallo playing Melo even keel last season. The kid has fire and heart, even if he has holes in his game. Melo has yet to prove he possesses these qualities.

Fmaranesi
01-13-2011, 09:43 PM
Melo is way too hyped

smith&wesson
01-13-2011, 09:51 PM
Fixed

With his play this season he's slipping out of that top 10 bracket. He was never a top 5 player either.

I said top 5-10 not 1-5

while i respect your opinion, i really beg to differ,

to me melo is a top 10 player

if you dont think so, then explain to me why, rather then just telling me what you think. either way ill take a liste :p

IamKaiserSoze
01-13-2011, 09:52 PM
well, if an economics professor said it...it must be so. about...basketball. sigh.

hotpotato1092
01-13-2011, 09:53 PM
Has D'antoni ever had a raw scorer as good as Carmelo? Has he ever had someone even close? His system combined with 'Melo's natural scoring ability should be devastating. There are other things to remember too, first of all sticking Carmelo on this Knicks team (assuming with Randolph, Chandler/Gallo, and Curry) would probably be his best team ever, how much would that help him? How much would the motivation of playing where he actually wants to play help? I don't think this guy really knows what he's talking about.

smith&wesson
01-13-2011, 09:54 PM
How's that shooting percentage? How's that defense?

my point is i dont care how you crunch the numbers, melo is still a top 10 player in the league. top 15 if you really want to argue it. no matter what the article says, any one who knows any thing about basket ball knows melo is a very valuable asset to any teams despite what this ******** article is trying to prove.

the article is basically referring to effeciency isnt it ? i mean cmon how valuable do you think melo would be on any team even if he does take volume shots to fill the stats. alot of times those volume shots lead to W's and thats all that really matters. this article is weighing way too much on stats. stats are fantacy basket ball. not reality basket ball.

smith&wesson
01-13-2011, 09:56 PM
Not trying to hate, but these guys are the same players at diff positions.

Both score first mentality, I think this may take time to pan out, like the Heat's trio, specifically Wade and LeBron did

While it took some time to adjust ( like a third of a season ) its working with lebron and wade now isnt it ? i mean im not the biggest heat fan but any simpleton can see that its working.

I think it would work in new york too.

p.s the heat should have taken amare and not bosh. but thats off topic and pretty random lol haha.

What?
01-13-2011, 10:04 PM
While it took some time to adjust ( like a third of a season ) its working with lebron and wade now isnt it ? i mean im not the biggest heat fan but any simpleton can see that its working.

I think it would work in new york too.

p.s the heat should have taken amare and not bosh. but thats off topic and pretty random lol haha.

Except Lebron and Wade both are alot better then Melo and Amare along with having way higher basketball IQ's

I agree with JayW I think that neither the Nets or Knicks will benefit from trading for Carmelo. Nets won't go anywhere either way and it would just prolong the rebuilding process and Knicks wouldn't improve nearly enough to make them legitimate title contenders.

arkanian215
01-13-2011, 10:05 PM
my point is i dont care how you crunch the numbers, melo is still a top 10 player in the league. top 15 if you really want to argue it. no matter what the article says, any one who knows any thing about basket ball knows melo is a very valuable asset to any teams despite what this ******** article is trying to prove.

the article is basically referring to effeciency isnt it ? i mean cmon how valuable do you think melo would be on any team even if he does take volume shots to fill the stats. alot of times those volume shots lead to W's and thats all that really matters. this article is weighing way too much on stats. stats are fantacy basket ball. not reality basket ball.

So what makes him a top 10 player?

beasted86
01-13-2011, 10:09 PM
interesting but this kinda stuff is completely useless and irrelevant.

+1

smith&wesson
01-13-2011, 10:32 PM
So what makes him a top 10 player?

name me 10 players you would rather have on your team based on talent alone.

kobe
lebron
wade
howard
durant
cp3
dwill
d rose
amare
gasol

???
id step in after durant , its opinionated but dont tell me melo doesnt belong in that list somewhere :confused:

blueplanet
01-13-2011, 10:33 PM
NY would be mad fun to watch with Melo, Amare, and Felton.

hyb152
01-13-2011, 10:35 PM
Useless and irrelevant!!!! These stats are stupid...soooo Chandler and Fields are better than melo??? I dont care what you say Melos a stud, atleast he has a jump shot

Is that suppose to be a shot at LeBron? I hope not because I'm pretty sure on Christmas, Lebron was shooting jumpers and 3's all over your lakers. I'm no miami/lebron fan either, but that knock on lebron's jumpshot is getting old. I guess he HAS to be a better jump shooter than Kobe/carmelo/jordan to be considered great? That's a joke :laugh:

smith&wesson
01-13-2011, 10:38 PM
Except Lebron and Wade both are alot better then Melo and Amare along with having way higher basketball IQ's

I agree with JayW I think that neither the Nets or Knicks will benefit from trading for Carmelo. Nets won't go anywhere either way and it would just prolong the rebuilding process and Knicks wouldn't improve nearly enough to make them legitimate title contenders.


are all your arguments opinionated ?

if the nets go no where with melo its because they didnt add pieces around him.

the knicks would be a very good team if they got melo, the would be competing for the eastern conference finals with miami, boston, orlando.. why wouldnt they be ? they are good as it is, they would only get better with melo and yes melo is worth 2 out of these three players, fields, wilson or gallo. your lieing to yourself if you think he isnt.

What?
01-13-2011, 10:44 PM
name me 10 players you would rather have on your team based on talent alone.

kobe
lebron
wade
howard
durant
cp3
Dirk
dwill
d rose
Westbrook
Rondo
amare
gasol
Griffin?



???
id step in after durant , its opinionated but dont tell me melo doesnt belong in that list somewhere :confused:

Id put him in somewhere after Dwill he isn't a top tier player more like 2nd tier with Rose, Westbrook, Rondo, Griffin all soon to surpass him if they haven't already


I literally lol'd at Carmelo being better then CP3

Hawkeye15
01-13-2011, 10:46 PM
many of you have no idea how to interpret stats. This is actually a somewhat valid argument.

http://www.apbr.org/forum/

if you think WE have stat nerds here, check this site out. Quite honestly, you can break down sports into pure statistics, with a +/- % of error. But the fact is, LeBron OBVIOUSLY meant 27 wins looking at the Cavs versus Melo and his inefficiencies that have been covered in the last 6 months

Law25
01-13-2011, 10:47 PM
Whats crazy is that he may not be factoring the fact that the nuggets were garbage before Melo was drafted and havent missed the playoffs since he has worn ther uniform. Lebron cant say that hell not even my favorite player Kobe can say that. The boy is an great player love him or hate him.

arkanian215
01-13-2011, 10:53 PM
name me 10 players you would rather have on your team based on talent alone.

kobe
lebron
wade
howard
durant
cp3
dwill
d rose
amare
gasol

???
id step in after durant , its opinionated but dont tell me melo doesnt belong in that list somewhere :confused:

Melo's best asset is his scoring ability. Right now, he's not efficient as a scorer (guess what that means). That's what makes him not a top 10. Right now, I'd have Paul Pierce ahead of him at SF and in the top 10. I would have Westbrook, Nash, Gino and Love ahead of him in no particular order (and not necessarily in the top 10 either).

arkanian215
01-13-2011, 10:56 PM
Whats crazy is that he may not be factoring the fact that the nuggets were garbage before Melo was drafted and havent missed the playoffs since he has worn ther uniform. Lebron cant say that hell not even my favorite player Kobe can say that. The boy is an great player love him or hate him.

So a player's playoff appearances and team record defines how good he is?

Swashcuff
01-13-2011, 11:01 PM
I said top 5-10 not 1-5

while i respect your opinion, i really beg to differ,

to me melo is a top 10 player

if you dont think so, then explain to me why, rather then just telling me what you think. either way ill take a liste :p

Statically speaking no top ten player ranks outside of the top 20 in PER thus far this season Carmelo is 26th with Nene being one spot ahead of him.

Being ranked 86th in the league in win shares speaks volume to his impact thus far this season. I mean when Matt Bonner is ahead of you in ws you really don't have much of a case for a top 10 player.

You'd figure his OWS would be good but quite frankly it isn't seeing that he's ranked 84th in the league in that regard. And his 105 ORTG isn't helping his cause either.

All and all his numbers have been down across the board this season and so is his production. I don't know if he's affected by all the trade talk but I am of the opinion that that has a lot to do with his slide in production. He hasn't been as impacting as he was last season or earlier in his career.

As you realize I am yet to mention the word defense in my post and I have yet to mention how inconsistent his J has been and the fact that other than his hunger for boards his game has been unimpressive for a player of his calibre thus far this season. Maybe he turns it up after he's trade but at this point he cannot be considered a top 10 player.

And you do know 5-10 includes 5 right? Which means if I say top 5 it essentially mean that it could include the #5 player.

There is a whole lot more I can say on him but he's still my boy and I am pulling for him but his offensive game is the only reason he was considered top 10 since he isn't producing well in that aspect there is no way he should still be considered among the league's elite.

What?
01-13-2011, 11:14 PM
are all your arguments opinionated ?

if the nets go no where with melo its because they didnt add pieces around him.

the knicks would be a very good team if they got melo, the would be competing for the eastern conference finals with miami, boston, orlando.. why wouldnt they be ? they are good as it is, they would only get better with melo and yes melo is worth 2 out of these three players, fields, wilson or gallo. your lieing to yourself if you think he isnt.

Obviously no one can see the future so when i say Carmelo won't make NY good enough it is just a educated guess but based on facts. Carmelo defense is mediocre and although being a great offensive player he has been inefficient this year. To get him you would be trading two of there best defenders (Fields and Gallo) and sacrificng there greatest strength (depth) for a player that with justly slightly worse Denver teams could never win 55 games and has 6 first round exits in 7 seasons (although he did make it to the WCF though it was against a choking NO team and a Mavs team that outside of Dirk played awful.) Am not saying he isn't a great player but trading for him is not in either of these teams best interests.The Knicks would be smarter to keep there pieces until offseason sign and trade Wilson Chandler for Marc Gasol and then sign Carmelo Anthony.

I find it ironic that you acuse me of basing my posts based solely on opinion with no facts when you your self presented no facts or evidence just your opinion

ldawg
01-13-2011, 11:40 PM
These foolish book smart educated dummies are to smart for their own good no wonder the world is the way it is. They put a number on everything even things that can't be measured. Where is people common sense these days.

Hawkeye15
01-13-2011, 11:50 PM
These foolish book smart educated dummies are to smart for their own good no wonder the world is the way it is. They put a number on everything even things that can't be measured. Where is people common sense these days.

the quicker you embrace statistics the better off you are, as long as it doesn't cut into actually watching. But if you really want to have a good understanding of the game, you need to go beyond just watching. Period.

Kashmir13579
01-13-2011, 11:59 PM
the quicker you embrace statistics the better off you are, as long as it doesn't cut into actually watching. But if you really want to have a good understanding of the game, you need to go beyond just watching. Period.

+1

Rego247
01-14-2011, 12:18 AM
if the knicks dont get him by the deadline, they'll get him in the offseason (barring a lockout).

anyway u look at it, knicks come out on top.

sfattahian
01-14-2011, 12:44 AM
Yea this is farcical economically speaking. I'd be interested as to what his independant variables are in this regression. Sports economics is such a biased and imperfect science anyway, and I doubt the results have any statistical significance economically speaking.

This study is worthless and this guy has embarressed himself and Southern Utah University. It's amazing how so-called "educated" people come up wigh such balogna.

ChiSox219
01-14-2011, 12:55 AM
Yea this is farcical economically speaking. I'd be interested as to what his independant variables are in this regression. Sports economics is such a biased and imperfect science anyway, and I doubt the results have any statistical significance economically speaking.

This study is worthless and this guy has embarressed himself and Southern Utah University. It's amazing how so-called "educated" people come up wigh such balogna.

http://dberri.wordpress.com/frequently-asked-questions-and-comments/

D Roses Bulls
01-14-2011, 01:06 AM
the quicker you embrace statistics the better off you are, as long as it doesn't cut into actually watching. But if you really want to have a good understanding of the game, you need to go beyond just watching. Period.

Statistics dont tell the whole picture though. it only tells a little bit of it. If it did, there would be no use for scouts and scouting someone.

Hawkeye15
01-14-2011, 01:47 AM
Statistics dont tell the whole picture though. it only tells a little bit of it. If it did, there would be no use for scouts and scouting someone.

you read the rest of my post as well. I think my reply is in there.

NYKnicks4511
01-14-2011, 02:14 AM
Carmelo has the best mid-range game in the NBA. D'Antoni has never had a scorer like Melo on his team. Not only would Melo provide more spacing for Amar'e to work, but he is also more reliable to just isolate and score in a half court set (which many teams try to run to slow down the Knicks).

Wilson is a nice Richard Jefferson-esque type player (when he was with NJN), but it's 'highly questionable' to say that he is more valuable to the Knicks than Carmelo.

Chronz
01-14-2011, 03:23 AM
I think its telling that Berris metrics rate a strong rebounder like Melo so low. That said I usually ignore his work, partly because I dont understand it but also because none of his findings match my opinion of players, unlike other more respected statisticians

Evolution23
01-14-2011, 03:40 AM
pfffftttt lol

melo = top 5-10 player in the leauge. doesnt matter how you wanna look at stats and play with you calculator ... the man is one of the best in the league any team would love to have him.

amare + carmelo would be awesome.

This /thread

DenButsu
01-14-2011, 05:21 AM
many of you have no idea how to interpret stats. This is actually a somewhat valid argument.

http://www.apbr.org/forum/

if you think WE have stat nerds here, check this site out. Quite honestly, you can break down sports into pure statistics, with a +/- % of error. But the fact is, LeBron OBVIOUSLY meant 27 wins looking at the Cavs versus Melo and his inefficiencies that have been covered in the last 6 months

Melo is a less efficient player than most people realize, true. But this wages of wins douchebag has been a Melo hater from day 1, who pretty much sets out on missions to interpret his highly dubioius results in ways that make Melo look worse than he is. (And much of it is bent on grabbing headlines, because somehow this guy has his talons sunk into the MSM).

But hey, if you don't believe me, take a look at his wins produced rankings for 2009-10, and tell me if they pass your smell test:

http://www.wagesofwins.com/WPRank09-10.html

(I'll give you a sneak preview, though. Among those who allegedly won more games for their teams than Melo did are:

Marcus Camby
Troy Murphy
Samuel Dalembert
Ben Wallace
Matt Barnes
Mike Miller
Chris Andersen (yeah, that (http://blogs.westword.com/latestword/chris%20andersen%20neck%20tattoo.jpg) Chris Andersen)
Quentin Richardson
Carlos Delfino
Thabo Sefolosha
DeJuan Blair
Udonis Haslem
Trevor Ariza
Jarrett Jack
Beno Udrih
Kyle Lowry
Jonas Jerebko (I repeat: Jonas. Jerebko.)
Shawn Marion

...and there are plenty more - make of it what you will).

Antipod
01-14-2011, 06:01 AM
Is he really saying Fields is 3x times better then Melo(winning games wise)? :facepalm:

DenButsu
01-14-2011, 06:48 AM
Is he really saying Fields is 3x times better then Melo(winning games wise)? :facepalm:

If he were saying something along the lines of this, it wouldn't be a problem:

"My "wins produced" rankings are a measurement of x, y and z. Therefore, they are not intended to be an all-encompassing player evaluation tool, but rather an evaluation of who is, specifically, the strongest in terms of that x, y and z combination of factors."

However, that's not what he does. He is deliberately using a narrow parameter to make broad assumptions about overall player value and production, which is a bit like using a jackhammer to pop a zit. It's a misapplication of a tool that was not designed to do that particular job.

I agree with everything, pretty much, Hawkeye has said in this thread about the importance of stats. But I'd qualify that agreement with a few points:

1. When stats fly in the face of what we absolutely, positively know to be true by watching the game, and are so far off from matching up with reality that they (as I said above) don't pass the smell test, it's often going to be the case that there is a problem with the methodology, assumptions, and/or the raw data behind those stats. They are almost certainly, for whatever reason, flawed.

2. That's not to say that we should expect to never be surprised by the results that turn up. On the contrary, in Basketball on Paper, Dean Oliver (now the Nuggets' statistician) said in so many words that this is the real goal of advanced stats - to unearth some unexpected discoveries about what makes teams or players great (or not great) so that the team who does the research can get the upper hand in scouting, coaching, drafting, etc. So surprising results are valuable results, but they also need to pass that smell test and withstand further scrutiny (with the same or similar results) to be considered valid.

3. There is no place for an agenda in good stats work. A hypothesis is fine, or a question you're trying to find an answer to. But I've been seeing this wages of wins d-bag's work pop up on and off since he started his blog up, and invariably, every single time he posts about Melo, it's to trash him. And the article in the top post is a great example. I think you wouldn't find many educated NBA fans who would disagree with the notion that LeBron is a more valuable player than Melo. But on the other hand, you also wouldn't find many who think that LeBron is 4.5 times more valuable than Melo. I mean, it's just ridiculous. So the deuche undermines his own credibility by (willfully, in my opinion) exaggerating what could be a legitimate point and taking it into ludicrous territory.

save the knicks
01-14-2011, 08:29 AM
The not enough shots theory is lame. This is Mike Dantoni, there is enough shots for 3-4 players to put up 20+ every night.

Raidaz4Life
01-14-2011, 08:38 AM
So Durant and Wade are not franchise players according to this guy.... right....

ldawg
01-14-2011, 08:41 AM
the professor is nutz

Hawkeye15
01-14-2011, 09:18 AM
Melo is a less efficient player than most people realize, true. But this wages of wins douchebag has been a Melo hater from day 1, who pretty much sets out on missions to interpret his highly dubioius results in ways that make Melo look worse than he is. (And much of it is bent on grabbing headlines, because somehow this guy has his talons sunk into the MSM).

But hey, if you don't believe me, take a look at his wins produced rankings for 2009-10, and tell me if they pass your smell test:

http://www.wagesofwins.com/WPRank09-10.html

(I'll give you a sneak preview, though. Among those who allegedly won more games for their teams than Melo did are:

Marcus Camby
Troy Murphy
Samuel Dalembert
Ben Wallace
Matt Barnes
Mike Miller
Chris Andersen (yeah, that (http://blogs.westword.com/latestword/chris%20andersen%20neck%20tattoo.jpg) Chris Andersen)
Quentin Richardson
Carlos Delfino
Thabo Sefolosha
DeJuan Blair
Udonis Haslem
Trevor Ariza
Jarrett Jack
Beno Udrih
Kyle Lowry
Jonas Jerebko (I repeat: Jonas. Jerebko.)
Shawn Marion

...and there are plenty more - make of it what you will).


I have noticed. I don't agree with all, or even a good portion of his metrics regarding not only Melo, but many players in fact.
But there is a huge disparity in the number of wins Bron brings in over Melo. That much is indeed real

cambovenzi
01-14-2011, 09:24 AM
Absolutely horrible attempt by this "professor".

Efficiency in completely different circumstances is apples and oranges.

Crackadalic
01-14-2011, 09:55 AM
I agree you have to look beyond watching and if stats didnt matter there wouldn't be such a thing as ppg rpg advance stats etc but this guy system is kinda dumb if you ask me

DenButsu
01-14-2011, 10:02 AM
I have noticed. I don't agree with all, or even a good portion of his metrics regarding not only Melo, but many players in fact.
But there is a huge disparity in the number of wins Bron brings in over Melo. That much is indeed real

Real, but certainly not at a 5:1 ratio, even taking into account LeBron playing a larger role on a not-as-deep Cavs team last season, or a (basically) no-depth Heat this season, I would think it's probably fair to expect that his wins earned to Melo's wins earned ration shouldn't exceed by too far the disparity between their respective teams' wins.

So for example, last season the Cavs won 61 games to the Nuggets' 53, a ratio of 1.2:1. From that to the 4.5:1 disparity described by this professor is a huge leap. And compare that result with, for example, win shares as calculated by Basketball-Reference (held in high esteem in the b-ball world as you well know), which puts LeBron at 18.5 and Melo at 7.9 win shares last season, a ratio of 2.3:1, or their WS/48, .299 and .145 respectively, for a ratio of 2.1:1. Those figures seem much more plausible as within the range of realism, assuming LeBron was both better and played a larger role for his team, but at the same time both players played well and both teams were successful.

Anyhow, I've never really abided by the whole win shares concept very much. It involves some pretty complicated formulas that assume quite a bit about what exactly from an individual's performance does and does not contribute to a win. To me it's a stat that loses its meaningfulness and usefulness in abstractions.

I think it's also fairly impossible to say that Player A is X times more valuable to his team than Player B, since so much of that depends on so many variables: depth, chemistry, coaching, minutes, roles. For example, if last season Chauncey had an injury that took him out all season, suddenly Melo's handling the ball more, taking a bigger percentage of the Nuggets' shots, and probably his win shares end up higher even though his true ability as a player didn't really change at all.

Hawkeye15
01-14-2011, 10:22 AM
Real, but certainly not at a 5:1 ratio, even taking into account LeBron playing a larger role on a not-as-deep Cavs team last season, or a (basically) no-depth Heat this season, I would think it's probably fair to expect that his wins earned to Melo's wins earned ration shouldn't exceed by too far the disparity between their respective teams' wins.

So for example, last season the Cavs won 61 games to the Nuggets' 53, a ratio of 1.2:1. From that to the 4.5:1 disparity described by this professor is a huge leap. And compare that result with, for example, win shares as calculated by Basketball-Reference (held in high esteem in the b-ball world as you well know), which puts LeBron at 18.5 and Melo at 7.9 win shares last season, a ratio of 2.3:1, or their WS/48, .299 and .145 respectively, for a ratio of 2.1:1. Those figures seem much more plausible as within the range of realism, assuming LeBron was both better and played a larger role for his team, but at the same time both players played well and both teams were successful.

Anyhow, I've never really abided by the whole win shares concept very much. It involves some pretty complicated formulas that assume quite a bit about what exactly from an individual's performance does and does not contribute to a win. To me it's a stat that loses its meaningfulness and usefulness in abstractions.

I think it's also fairly impossible to say that Player A is X times more valuable to his team than Player B, since so much of that depends on so many variables: depth, chemistry, coaching, minutes, roles. For example, if last season Chauncey had an injury that took him out all season, suddenly Melo's handling the ball more, taking a bigger percentage of the Nuggets' shots, and probably his win shares end up higher even though his true ability as a player didn't really change at all.

much more realistic.
as for the rest of your post, of course anytime you just post a stat, there is context behind it that needs to be addressed unless you are doing a simple TS% comparison or something. Anytime you attempt to use a stat that is based off numerous metrics, it needs to be explained with context into that player's situation if you are really going to live by it. Win shares is a perfect example. One would be insane not to think LeBron meant more wins to his team than anyone over the past 3 years. However, not only is it because he is the best player in the NBA, but even if you don't agree with that, everyone knows he played such a huge role on a game to game basis, nobody could keep with him in wins produced by a single player.

Is Melo an overrated superstar who is more inefficient than most believe? For sure. Is he worse than his own bench player, the Birdman? hahahaha. Nope. So yes, stats can be used to show any stupid thing you like if done properly (odd way to put it, but its true)

nstojic
01-14-2011, 11:02 AM
all that knowledge and forecasting and no one said 'hey, public, you might wanna hide your money under a mattress in 2007'

ttam68
01-14-2011, 11:12 AM
David Berri is a lot more than an economics professor. He's been analyzing and writing about basketball for over a decade.

He has tons of interesting articles here: http://dberri.wordpress.com/

Also, his Wins Produced (WP) stat is far more correlated to actual wins and losses than any other stat available, its somewhere in the 0.90s. He, and his fellow contributors, do release pre-season predictions that you all can look at and attempt to tear apart if you like.

Frankly, I don't find it too hard to believe Lebron is worth 4.5 Melo's considering Lebrons teams hae typically been more successful with much less talent. And, I should say, I don't even like Lebron.

arkanian215
01-17-2011, 06:09 AM
Why Carmelo Anthony Is the Ultimate Team Player (and What ‘Advanced’ Stats Miss About Him)
By NATE SILVER

Carmelo Anthony, whom the Knicks are considering acquiring in a trade, is sometimes thought of as a selfish player. Indeed, he is the center of the Denver Nuggets’ offense: when he is on the court for them, about 30 percent of their possessions end in Anthony shooting, going to the foul line, or committing a turnover. Nor is Anthony much of a passer: over his career, he’s accumulated 3.1 assists per 36 minutes played, considerably less than that of other high-volume scorers like Kobe Bryant (4.6 assists per 36 minutes) or LeBron James (6.2).

In taking all of those shots, however, Anthony has also done something else: he’s made his teammates much more efficient offensive players.

Anthony is a controversial player among those who devote their time to analyzing basketball statistics. The reason is as follows: although he scores a lot of points, he does not do so especially efficiently. His True Shooting Percentage (TS%) – which accounts not just for two-point buckets but also for three-point shots and drawing fouls, neither of which are a particular strength of Anthony’s – is .527 this year and .543 for his career. Those figures are roughly at the league average, which is about .540 in most years.

Anthony’s TS% is also worse than all five of the Knicks’ regular starters, including Wilson Chandler (.579), Danilo Gallinari (.600), and Landry Fields (.611), the men whom he might replace in the lineup. This has led some to argue that Anthony could actually represent a step backward for the Knicks. David Berri, an economist at Southern Utah University who has developed a statistic called Wins Produced that places an extremely high premium on efficiency, told the Wall Street Journal that a Knicks roster with Anthony, Amare Stoudemire and Raymond Felton — but without Fields or Chandler — would win only 29 games per season.

This strikes me as highly implausible: the Nuggets, with a supporting cast that isn’t obviously any better than the one that Anthony would be joining in New York, have won an average of 48 games per season since Anthony’s rookie year, despite playing in the deep Western Conference. They have also been a relatively efficient offensive team. The year before Anthony joined the Nuggets, they ranked dead last in the N.B.A. in offensive efficiency (points scored per possession) on their way to winning just 17 games. But their offensive efficiently ranking shot up to 8th in the league in Anthony’s rookie season and has remained roughly at that level since.

What is missing from formulas like Berri’s is an account of what Anthony does to the rest of the Nuggets. Because he is able to score from anywhere in the court, Anthony draws attention and defenders away from his teammates, sometimes leaving them with wide-open shots. He also allows them to be more selective about the shots that they choose to take, since they know that Anthony can usually get a respectable shot off before the 24-second clock expires if needed.

These effects produce a profound increase in the efficiency of Anthony’s supporting cast when he is on the floor. In the 135 games that he played with the Nuggets, for instance, Allen Iverson’s True Shooting Percentage was 55.9 percent – much better than the 51.2 TS% that Iverson, a notoriously inefficient shooter, posted outside of Denver over the course of his career.
http://www.538host.com/carmelo.png
In fact, this is true of almost every Nugget who has played a sufficient number of minutes with Anthony. I identified 16 players who have accumulated least 2,000 minutes with the Nuggets in years when Anthony was on the team, and have also played at least 2,000 minutes in the N.B.A. without Anthony (either because they were playing for a different team or because they were on the Nuggets before Anthony’s rookie season). All but 2 of the players – Marcus Camby and Voshon Lenard – posted a higher TS% playing with Anthony than without him, and on average, he improved his teammates’ TS% by 3.8 points (to 55.0 percent from 51.2 percent).

The effect of a player who improves the rest of his team’s TS% by 3.8 points is extremely substantial: it is works out to their scoring about 5 or 5.5 additional points per game solely on the basis of this efficiency gain. That, in turn, translates into about 15 additional wins per season for an average team, according to a commonly-used formula. This is how Anthony creates most of his value — not in the shots he takes himself, but in the ones he creates for his teammates – and some of the “advanced” formulas completely miss it.

With that said, there is reason to question whether Anthony would have quite the same effect in New York that he did in Denver. With a few exceptions like Iverson, the Nuggets have generally surrounded Anthony with defensively-minded players like Camby who are not especially eager to shoot or who do not do so especially well. The Knicks, by contrast, are a run-and-gun team with lots of good shooters and they already rank fifth in the league in offensive efficiency.

There are some precedents for pairing several high-volume scorers together and seeing them thrive: when Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen joined Paul Pierce on the Celtics, for instance, all three players took fewer shots, but all three were rewarded with a significant increase in their TS%. On the other hand, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh have not seen an increase in their efficiency since joining together on the Miami Heat, even though they are shooting a bit less often.

So there are no guarantees – one would need to consider more carefully exactly how Anthony would integrate into Mike D’Antoni’s offense and exactly which type of shots he’d take. One would also need to think about Anthony’s defense and rebounding, where he is no standout. But upon a more careful examination, the argument that Anthony is a merely average offensive player turns out to be superficial.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/15/why-carmelo-anthony-is-the-ultimate-team-player-and-what-advanced-stats-miss-about-him/#more-5197

I got bored and started reading the times and came across this in the politics section.

DenButsu
01-17-2011, 06:24 AM
I read Nate Silver's blog, and saw that a few days ago. I was on my cell, though, and forgot about it. Also, I love Nate's work, but I'm not sure of his esteem among the b-ball community. Baseball was his main thing, before he jumped full on into politics.

OG "Dee" LOCc
01-17-2011, 10:30 AM
melo will evolve into a much better offensive player once he plays with d'antoni. I don't know how you can't say that.

Look at feltons production from last year vs this year
Thats what will happen to melo.
Look at the drop off between david lee last year and this year
thats what will happen to chandler and fields.

And, if a core of melo + amare + and felton can't win more than 40+ wins than what will

NYKalltheway
01-17-2011, 03:48 PM
I bet there are 150,000 other economic professors who disagree and all of them would show us different result from eachother :D

Chronz
01-17-2011, 04:04 PM
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/15/why-carmelo-anthony-is-the-ultimate-team-player-and-what-advanced-stats-miss-about-him/#more-5197

I got bored and started reading the times and came across this in the politics section.
Anyone care to obliterate his theories?

xxcubs22xx
01-17-2011, 05:00 PM
interesting but this kinda stuff is completely useless and irrelevant.

CJ Watson is the QuietStorm...just lettin ya know

bulldog312
01-17-2011, 05:15 PM
Melo is a less efficient player than most people realize, true. But this wages of wins douchebag has been a Melo hater from day 1, who pretty much sets out on missions to interpret his highly dubioius results in ways that make Melo look worse than he is. (And much of it is bent on grabbing headlines, because somehow this guy has his talons sunk into the MSM).

But hey, if you don't believe me, take a look at his wins produced rankings for 2009-10, and tell me if they pass your smell test:

http://www.wagesofwins.com/WPRank09-10.html

(I'll give you a sneak preview, though. Among those who allegedly won more games for their teams than Melo did are:

Marcus Camby
Troy Murphy
Samuel Dalembert
Ben Wallace
Matt Barnes
Mike Miller
Chris Andersen (yeah, that (http://blogs.westword.com/latestword/chris%20andersen%20neck%20tattoo.jpg) Chris Andersen)
Quentin Richardson
Carlos Delfino
Thabo Sefolosha
DeJuan Blair
Udonis Haslem
Trevor Ariza
Jarrett Jack
Beno Udrih
Kyle Lowry
Jonas Jerebko (I repeat: Jonas. Jerebko.)
Shawn Marion

...and there are plenty more - make of it what you will).

His wins rating is ****. Just use win shares from someplace like basketball reference. It is a much better stat.

Hawkeye15
01-17-2011, 05:16 PM
His wins rating is ****. Just use win shares from someplace like basketball reference. It is a much better stat.

Den knows his stats, he was simply pointing out some flaws of this gentleman's argument.

DenButsu
01-17-2011, 10:38 PM
Anyone care to obliterate his theories?

Being that I don't know the basis of doing that that you're thinking of (or in other words, being that maybe I can't), I'd rather see you do it. :cool:

Rivera
01-17-2011, 10:49 PM
landry fields is worth more wins than carmello!!!!

i told ya......landry fields = GOAT

Chronz
01-18-2011, 01:33 AM
Being that I don't know the basis of doing that that you're thinking of (or in other words, being that maybe I can't), I'd rather see you do it. :cool:

Only for you Den

First up, yes Melo makes his teammates better, he takes the bad shots that every team must throughout the game/season. And he makes them at a far better rate than anyone else on the team so its for their benefit.

Problem is ANY player that does this will make life easier for his teammates, when your a high usage player your leaving the lower usage guys with the highest quality looks. What he describes is no different than any chucker. The difference in that intangible quality that hes trying to measure is something I applaud. Its something Ive tried to do over the years but hes taken it to extremely biased levels.

For instance the "without Anthony" minutes for JR came at the age of 19/20, the rest at 21-25. The "without Anthony" minutes for Nene came at 20 years old, the rest when he was 21-28. Most players that come into the league that young almost always shoot better in that age group regardless of who their teammates are.

Theres also the fact that Nene has basically been around as long as Melo has, any correlation youve drawn up could be applied to him as well, but I dont see anyone saying Nene makes his teammates better.

Personally any "with and without" argument should in some way apply to the data of his teammates with and without said player on the court, shocking I know. For this we can turn to Player Pair Data at 82games.com among others.

Now since its such a small sample of data I totally understand the logic of looking at what players accomplished outside of Denver but you have to contextualize the results, you have to look at the most recent performance. What if a player was carrying a heavier load elsewhere, what if he was entering/exiting his prime, why would I care how efficient a guy was at a far different stage in his development? The AI comparison was especially damning because he neglected to mention the effect the rule changes had on AI. Which brings me to my next point of accounting for the defensive strength of the league.

Its true AI was inefficient throughout most of his career but in YEAR1 of the HC rule his Off.RTG jumped 6PTS. Why no mention of the fact he was less effective alongside Melo his first 50 games? If we casually dismiss that as growing pains and admit that when they finally meshed he was at his most effective then fine but you have to also account for the fact that his usage dropped 9% pts for an uptick in .4PPP (compared to his final efficient season in Philly). Thats a modest improvement and one that you can credit to his decreased workload and not so much to Anthony's ability to make his teammates better.


Then theres also the fact the coaching of Karl himself improves his players offensively, Melo being a primary example. Theres alot of noise in this type of analysis but of course its better to fare well than not.

The best stat we have to analyze this Magic Johnson effect would be to look at a players adj +/-, good luck with that but from everything Ive read Melo does in fact rank among the best. Measuring just how great he is in this regard is something way above me, Im just saying this guys methods are amateur. While hes right to trash Berri (Dude is a joke), I dont think he should encompass all of APBR with his findings.

WHODAT8o8
01-18-2011, 01:52 AM
interesting but this kinda stuff is completely useless and irrelevant.

exactly

Hawkeye15
01-18-2011, 01:56 AM
as usual, perfect insight from Chronz.

Is he a top 10 player Chronz? simple answer. Explain

THE MTL
01-18-2011, 02:01 AM
One thing I would say is that Carmelo Anthony is NOT a franchise player. He is more like a Franchise B player. If on the Knicks, him and Amare would function as a 1A and 1B franchise player.

The only thing Melo does on an Elite level is score, which is obvious. However to say he would result in less wins on the current Knicks is FOOLISH! His scoring draws doubles/triples that are INTANGIBLE to other players and make role players better.

Btw, I agree with that analysis on Fields. His stat sheet might not be as impressive as Wall's or Blake's, but the THINGS that he does on the court result in WINS!

DenButsu
01-18-2011, 09:11 AM
Thanks Chronz, good stuff.

And now that you mention it, I did definitely raise my eyebrows at Nene's "without Melo" numbers being included.

Another thing that occurs to me now is that we've had enough injury stretches that we could probably measure, with a small but reasonalbe sample size, the effect, for example, on J.R.'s shooting percentages as a Nugget with or without Melo, with or without Chauncey, with or without Nene, etc. If we broke that down for each player, I'd venture a guess that Chauncey's positive impact on his teammates' play is more potent than Melo's.

faze38
01-18-2011, 10:32 AM
How's that shooting percentage? How's that defense?

All of a sudden u want to bad mouth him because now u finally know he's not going to the Nets huh

faze38
01-18-2011, 10:45 AM
People need to get off of these guys nuts that know nothing about basketball! Yes melo may not have the best eFG% but let me ask the haters that jumped on here to bad mouth him when has Melo not made the playoffs. As far as all of these top players in the league which ones have a winning record against Melo beside Kobe and Duncan! I mean all of these players account for 20+ wins for their team but against Melo and his team what is their win % like 40% if their lucky. So why don't these guys who make up all these win lose stats measure these stats by things that really count wins and loses because no matter what way u try and spin it Melo does that well proven by taking a the worse team to the playoffs as a rookie! For the people who say Melo isn't a top 5 player I can't wait for him to get on the Knicks and smack all these teams around on his way to a ring because I will promise every hater here that the firt thread u will after the Knicks win a chip is "where does Melo rank now Melo 1 ring Lebron 0"

Chronz
01-18-2011, 02:35 PM
Why do people think Melo never missing the playoffs speaks to his abilities and not his surroundings? I mean Kobe missed the playoffs, and he was a far better player at that point in his career than Melo ever has. Whats the point in mentioning this?

Gambeezy
01-18-2011, 04:03 PM
People need to get off of these guys nuts that know nothing about basketball! Yes melo may not have the best eFG% but let me ask the haters that jumped on here to bad mouth him when has Melo not made the playoffs. As far as all of these top players in the league which ones have a winning record against Melo beside Kobe and Duncan! I mean all of these players account for 20+ wins for their team but against Melo and his team what is their win % like 40% if their lucky. So why don't these guys who make up all these win lose stats measure these stats by things that really count wins and loses because no matter what way u try and spin it Melo does that well proven by taking a the worse team to the playoffs as a rookie! For the people who say Melo isn't a top 5 player I can't wait for him to get on the Knicks and smack all these teams around on his way to a ring because I will promise every hater here that the firt thread u will after the Knicks win a chip is "where does Melo rank now Melo 1 ring Lebron 0"

On a much better team, Melo never came close to dominating in the manner that LeBron did when he was with the Cavs. It's not an argument of who is better because Melo isn't on LeBron's level right now. Melo would certainly improve his all-around stats in NY b/c teams have to respect Amare, but he is not nearly the tenacious defender that LeBron is.

I can see Melo cracking top 5 in the League with a move to NY. I don't see him being #1 in the foreseeable future though.

Rivera
01-18-2011, 04:19 PM
i dont believe this proffessor...i mean if lebron is worth ONLY 27 wins...then the cavs should win 33 games

cause they won 60 + last year

so hes already way off on lebron unless the cavs have a crazy 2nd half of the season

i would like to believe and will that melo is worth more than 6 wins....he is a top 10 player in the league (6-8)

faze38
01-18-2011, 05:32 PM
On a much better team, Melo never came close to dominating in the manner that LeBron did when he was with the Cavs. It's not an argument of who is better because Melo isn't on LeBron's level right now. Melo would certainly improve his all-around stats in NY b/c teams have to respect Amare, but he is not nearly the tenacious defender that LeBron is.

I can see Melo cracking top 5 in the League with a move to NY. I don't see him being #1 in the foreseeable future though.

I'm tired of hearing that junk why don't we compare were Melo played in the West were u have to be a above .500 team to make the playoffs and check were Lebron dominated against the weak in the east! I mean 3-4 of the playoff teams in the east have a losing record why don't the stats take that into account. On top of that why don't they take Melo's record against fellow elite players like Lebron and discover that if u add Lebron and Wade's wins together Melo has beaten Lebron more times then both of them have beaten him. As far as Melo has had a better team last time I checked the Nuggets had 17 wins when he joined them and were just as bad as the Cavs were and Melo is yet to miss playoffs in a tougher conference. So stop with this Melo had a better team junk because he can carry a team on his back and has proven it. For the people that say o well Lebron does more things then Melo how come Melo has become the best rebounding SF in the league but people want to forget that. On top of that I have to ask were is Lebron's post game 8 years in the league and he still doesn't have one come on now. Lebron may be the better Defensive player and passer but Melo is the better rebounder and offensive player so people need to stop believing the hype and realize that Melo is the one guy tht can stop Lebron's dynasty talk once Kobe is gone and he is going to. See the best part about not being the greatest defender is that a good defensive center can cover you but one it comes down to that last shot with .7 seconds left on the clock nobody can help u with that it's just u vs your man and nobody in the league can stop Melo! Kobe and the Celtics on the other hand have proven they can stop Lebron!

JayW_1023
01-19-2011, 08:08 AM
Either way, The Knicks are playing well because of their great offensive balance. Adding a guy who needs 20 plus shots will not influence the offensive flow and tempo in a good way.

And Melo is not a guy who improves a teams defense as well. He is a player who tends to make questionable decisions with the basketball.

nyjets28
01-19-2011, 09:19 AM
but how many wins are melo and amarie worth compared to amarie and chandler/gallo?... Its about how he fits into the team and makes the entire lineup worth more wins

mttwlsn16
01-19-2011, 09:48 AM
So LBJ is 4x better than Melo? Ya right, better yes but not THAT much

faze38
01-19-2011, 10:16 AM
Either way, The Knicks are playing well because of their great offensive balance. Adding a guy who needs 20 plus shots will not influence the offensive flow and tempo in a good way.

And Melo is not a guy who improves a teams defense as well. He is a player who tends to make questionable decisions with the basketball.

I have to ask how many Knics game do you watch because I'm a Knicks fan and can tell u yes we play well against middle of the pack teams but not against elite teams because we have nobody besides Felton that can create their own shoot without turnig the ball over 8 times. So the real question is do we want to stay as a middle of the pack team or do we want to become elite. Melo takes us to the next level because he can score on his own and keeps constent pressure on the D and also forces teams to make a choice of doubling Amare or leaving Melo on an island alone with a defender which is a bad choice for the D. Now as far as Chandler, Gallo and Fields the truth is we only need one of them preferably Chandler but the truth is u can replace guys like that but u can't find another player like Melo in no way shape or form!

Chronz
01-19-2011, 02:34 PM
i dont believe this proffessor...i mean if lebron is worth ONLY 27 wins...then the cavs should win 33 games

cause they won 60 + last year

so hes already way off on lebron unless the cavs have a crazy 2nd half of the season

i would like to believe and will that melo is worth more than 6 wins....he is a top 10 player in the league (6-8)

Well to be fair they didnt just lose LeBron. Look how many wins his teammates accounted for from that season by his methods if you really want to tear him a new *** hole

JayW_1023
01-21-2011, 04:34 AM
I have to ask how many Knics game do you watch because I'm a Knicks fan and can tell u yes we play well against middle of the pack teams but not against elite teams because we have nobody besides Felton that can create their own shoot without turnig the ball over 8 times. So the real question is do we want to stay as a middle of the pack team or do we want to become elite. Melo takes us to the next level because he can score on his own and keeps constent pressure on the D and also forces teams to make a choice of doubling Amare or leaving Melo on an island alone with a defender which is a bad choice for the D. Now as far as Chandler, Gallo and Fields the truth is we only need one of them preferably Chandler but the truth is u can replace guys like that but u can't find another player like Melo in no way shape or form!

I've watched the Knicks plenty of times to know that they wouldn't be winning as much if it wasn't for their balanced and high octane offense right now. It certainly isn't their defense.

This team is playing unselfishly on offense and making the extra pass. Their transition offense is great because everyone is running and cutting. Even STAT is setting high post screens more eagerly than ever...which is a suprise without Steve Nash yanking his chain.

With Melo you add a guy who shoots and doesn't do much else. The offense will run through him and STAT, who is too similair of a player. But Melo is a ball stopper and a reluctant passer. His tendency to look for his shot nine times out of ten is going to have the Knicks adjust on offense, because the wealth will be not be spread as much. You get a more predictable offensive game plan with two similair designated scorers.

I like this team right now. You have a bunch of talented wingmen in Gallo and Chandler. Felton is having a career year...and Landry Fields is a rook who thinks the game like a vet. You have plenty offense here. What the Knicks is some defensive minded guys to shore up their biggest weakness.