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View Full Version : The Reasoning Behind Giving $10 Million to a Guy that Hit .196 Last Season



reddawn
12-10-2010, 03:08 PM
Here's the answer:

http://www.ff-press.com/cubs-to-nationals-well-see-your-move-and-raise-you-an-ever-stupider-one.html

LOL

theLgndKllr35
12-10-2010, 03:43 PM
$10 mil might have been a little much, but at one year, it's hardly a bad deal. Especially considering before last year he posted WAR of 6.2, 4.0, and 2.8. Last year he had a BABIP of .222, talk about unlucky.

1908_Cubs
12-10-2010, 03:55 PM
Actually Carlos Pena is a huge bounce back candidate. He was dealing with a foot injury through the season, which probably lead to him getting on top of the ball.

Dig deep into his numbers and you'll see that his GB% shot through the roof compared to his past few seasons, on top of that, his LD% and FB% declined heavily. This makes it appear as though his issue was getting on top of the issue. You might want to say that he lost power and is declining, however, his FB to HR ratio stayed consistent to his norm.

As long as Pena comes back normal and healthy, with a little swing work, a .235/.350/.500 slash line is something that could and should be expected from the Cubs. If he hits .245/.360/.520 isn't out of the question.

Anyone who makes an issue out of Pena's batting average is a ****ing idiot who doesn't understand the modern game of baseball and even simple statistics such as on base percentage.

Hawkize31
12-10-2010, 03:55 PM
$10 mil might have been a little much, but at one year, it's hardly a bad deal. Especially considering before last year he posted WAR of 6.2, 4.0, and 2.8. Last year he had a BABIP of .222, talk about unlucky.

I would wager that the OP has no idea what WAR and BABIP are.

But he sure understands batting average.

ATL#22
12-10-2010, 03:56 PM
It is a little higher then I thought it would be but I think it will turn out OK. Pena will produce

ATL#22
12-10-2010, 03:59 PM
But was the guy that wrote that article being serious? He failed to mention any stat other then batting average. Didn't mention he hits for power, with average luck will get on base, and usually is worth a couple wins. But whatever

1908_Cubs
12-10-2010, 04:00 PM
But was the guy that wrote that article being serious? He failed to mention any stat other then batting average. Didn't mention he hits for power, with average luck will get on base, and usually is worth a couple wins. But whatever
More than likely reddawn was the author of said article.

And yes, author of said article is a ****ing moron.

xabial
12-10-2010, 04:02 PM
its actually 1 year $5M Deferred. Not a bad deal by any standards. Its a One year Deal Meaning this is another contract year for him. (Extra motivation for him, GOOD for the Cubs in terms of production).

Lets look at his contract:

2011- $5M. 2012- $5M, (counts against cap but still 1 year contract).

Penas got some pop. Dont forget Tampa Bay won the AL East with him regularly playing First, so im sure he has above-average defense. If he hits above 25 HR's, His first season, and Average to Above average Defense, he'd be worth the $5M in 2011, and the $5M in 2012.

Have you seen baseball Contracts these days? I dont think its bad. Sure he cant hit a lick (average wise), But with That power, And Defense who Cares?

Pierzynski4Prez
12-10-2010, 04:04 PM
Actually Carlos Pena is a huge bounce back candidate. He was dealing with a foot injury through the season, which probably lead to him getting on top of the ball.

Dig deep into his numbers and you'll see that his GB% shot through the roof compared to his past few seasons, on top of that, his LD% and FB% declined heavily. This makes it appear as though his issue was getting on top of the issue. You might want to say that he lost power and is declining, however, his FB to HR ratio stayed consistent to his norm.

As long as Pena comes back normal and healthy, with a little swing work, a .235/.350/.500 slash line is something that could and should be expected from the Cubs. If he hits .245/.360/.520 isn't out of the question.

Anyone who makes an issue out of Pena's batting average is a ****ing idiot who doesn't understand the modern game of baseball and even simple statistics such as on base percentage.

So do you have to be a genius to realize that .196 is actually a great BA, and .325 OBA is so great that you should pay the guy 10 mil? Can a ****ing idiot also see a clear decline in both of those categories the last 3 years?

His fielding has taken a dive, his OBP has taken a dive, his WAR has taken a dive, and he will turn 33 next season. You could take any player that had an off year last year and say you fully expect them to come back normal and healthy, but that is just pure hope. 1 year deal on the Cubs part was the smartest thing they have done in quite a while, outside of dealing milton.

Pierzynski4Prez
12-10-2010, 04:05 PM
But was the guy that wrote that article being serious? He failed to mention any stat other then batting average. Didn't mention he hits for power, with average luck will get on base, and usually is worth a couple wins. But whatever

This article was clearly not to be taken seriously if you didn't get that by the quotes.

Kinsm
12-10-2010, 04:11 PM
its actually 1 year $5M Deferred. Not a bad deal by any standards. Its a One year Deal Meaning this is another contract year for him. (Extra motivation for him, GOOD for the Cubs in terms of production).

Lets look at his contract:

2011- $5M. 2012- $5M, (counts against cap but still 1 year contract).

Penas got some pop. Dont forget Tampa Bay won the AL East with him regularly playing First, so im sure he has above-average defense. If he hits above 25 HR's, His first season, and Average to Above average Defense, he'd be worth the $5M in 2011, and the $5M in 2012.

Have you seen baseball Contracts these days? I dont think its bad. Sure he cant hit a lick (average wise), But with That power, And Defense who Cares?

?

ATL#22
12-10-2010, 04:13 PM
This article was clearly not to be taken seriously if you didn't get that by the quotes.

Yeah some of the quotes were fake but I think he was actually being serious about the signing being really stupid (which it wasn't)

Pierzynski4Prez
12-10-2010, 04:17 PM
Yeah some of the quotes were fake but I think he was actually being serious about the signing being really stupid (which it wasn't)

It's both good and bad. 1 year deal, great-fact that they will pay half in 2012, we won't know until 2012 whether that worked out or not. I know the cubs have a lot of payroll, but 5 mill could easily fill a key spot in the pen or in the lineup and could make a difference to any team not named Yankees or Red Sox.

I also don't think Pena will be much better than other 1b's available that could be had for a lot less, let alone for a cubs team that most don't think will contend next year, just my opinion.

xabial
12-10-2010, 04:22 PM
?

I meant it adds to their payroll. Counts agianst the Cubs "Hypothetical Cap, Their Payroll Budget".

There is No Salary cap in baseball :laugh2:

ATL#22
12-10-2010, 04:23 PM
It's both good and bad. 1 year deal.

This is pretty much it. It's not a steal but most likely they will break even on the deal. For a team that probably won't contend its not really a big deal since its just one year.

TheRuckus
12-10-2010, 04:25 PM
Actually Carlos Pena is a huge bounce back candidate. He was dealing with a foot injury through the season, which probably lead to him getting on top of the ball.

Dig deep into his numbers and you'll see that his GB% shot through the roof compared to his past few seasons, on top of that, his LD% and FB% declined heavily. This makes it appear as though his issue was getting on top of the issue. You might want to say that he lost power and is declining, however, his FB to HR ratio stayed consistent to his norm.

As long as Pena comes back normal and healthy, with a little swing work, a .235/.350/.500 slash line is something that could and should be expected from the Cubs. If he hits .245/.360/.520 isn't out of the question.

Anyone who makes an issue out of Pena's batting average is a ****ing idiot who doesn't understand the modern game of baseball and even simple statistics such as on base percentage.

But he hit below .200!!!11!!1!!11rguhjnsdc

What a bum.

Caps1989
12-10-2010, 04:43 PM
You do realise that he delt with Plantar Faciitus <mispell> last year right. Have you ever had Plantar Faciitus, its not fun at all and it makes your heels sore all the time. So its understandable that he had a bad year.



Edit: As someone who is currently dealing with Plantar Faciitus it is very painful. Any pressure on the heel makes it painful.

behindmydesk
12-10-2010, 04:44 PM
?


I meant it adds to their payroll. Counts agianst the Cubs "Hypothetical Cap, Their Payroll Budget".

There is No Salary cap in baseball :laugh2:

It's because he will make 5 million in 2011, then get paid 5 million in jan of 2012 even though he's only under contract for 1 year. It's for the budget Hendry was given by the top for this year.

Zmaster52
12-10-2010, 04:45 PM
I dont care what anyone says, its a bad deal. Pena was garbage last year, he's not worth the 10MM, when you post up numbers like those, you dont at all deserve that kind of money

ruckus16969
12-10-2010, 05:05 PM
Ridiculous if ya ask me

ruckus16969
12-10-2010, 05:05 PM
Unless EVERY time he got a hit it was a HR

abe_froman
12-10-2010, 05:11 PM
1.avg. doesnt matter
2.they were in desperate need for someone to fill that position
3.its cuz its a one year deal
4.its a bet on him bouncing back next year
5.he's a boras client

there,thats why he got 10 mil

Jeffy25
12-10-2010, 05:44 PM
Adrian Beltre 2.0

xabial
12-10-2010, 05:46 PM
Adrian Beltre 2.0

this

Jeffy25
12-10-2010, 05:48 PM
1.avg. doesnt matter
2.they were in desperate need for someone to fill that position
3.its cuz its a one year deal
4.its a bet on him bouncing back next year
5.he's a boras client

and this...and I'm sure there are other comments in this thread that are relevant and related to this post that I agree with.

1. Look at OBP and Slugging at the very least to determine a hitters value. Batting average doesn't mean a thing. wOBA and OPS+ at the very least tell you a lot more.
2. Cubs are so weak at first base, they were considering allowing Tyler Colvin to play first this year. They needed somebody, and it to be someone that doesn't cost them any picks or block them from getting someone they could spend bigger money on next season.
3. The Cubs likely paid more for it to be a one year deal, like the Cardinals paid Berkman more to be a one year deal, not two or three. Pena would have taken less AAV if he could have had more years.
4. Adrian Beltre 2.0
5. Boras is notorious for getting the top payment for his clients.

With all that said, this is a great deal when compared to many of the off-season signings we have seen this year.

Pena is a low risk, costs them some cash, that is it. If he plays great and the team wins, holy moses it's a great deal. If they play like crap and so does he, then who cares?

Best case, he becomes a Type A, or he plays great and they resign him to longer term. Worst case, he sits on the bench injured all year, but thank god it was only a one year deal.


Also, 5 million is paid in 2011, the other 5 is deferred to 2012.

Jeffy25
12-10-2010, 05:51 PM
Actually Carlos Pena is a huge bounce back candidate. He was dealing with a foot injury through the season, which probably lead to him getting on top of the ball.

Dig deep into his numbers and you'll see that his GB% shot through the roof compared to his past few seasons, on top of that, his LD% and FB% declined heavily. This makes it appear as though his issue was getting on top of the issue. You might want to say that he lost power and is declining, however, his FB to HR ratio stayed consistent to his norm.

As long as Pena comes back normal and healthy, with a little swing work, a .235/.350/.500 slash line is something that could and should be expected from the Cubs. If he hits .245/.360/.520 isn't out of the question.

Anyone who makes an issue out of Pena's batting average is a ****ing idiot who doesn't understand the modern game of baseball and even simple statistics such as on base percentage.

If I were to ever hug a Cubs fan....it might be you

DodgersFanFor23
12-10-2010, 06:05 PM
^ Eww

Caps1989
12-10-2010, 06:14 PM
No one seems to be putting his injury into consideration when it comes to his numbers.

Jeffy25
12-10-2010, 06:15 PM
No one seems to be putting his injury into consideration when it comes to his numbers.

cubs 08 did so very well I believe.

1908_Cubs
12-10-2010, 07:39 PM
So do you have to be a genius to realize that .196 is actually a great BA, and .325 OBA is so great that you should pay the guy 10 mil? Can a ****ing idiot also see a clear decline in both of those categories the last 3 years?

His fielding has taken a dive, his OBP has taken a dive, his WAR has taken a dive, and he will turn 33 next season. You could take any player that had an off year last year and say you fully expect them to come back normal and healthy, but that is just pure hope. 1 year deal on the Cubs part was the smartest thing they have done in quite a while, outside of dealing milton.

You...you ignored my entire post didn't you? Because if you had read it, I actually outlined...everything. It's not hope, it's logic. The guy was hurt and his power didn't decline as indicated by his FB to HR ratio. His OBP only declined because his batting average declined, his eye is fine. Literally if he hits .235-.245 the guy will be more than worth $10m. And if he stops swinging over the ball there should be no reason he doesn't do that.

OptimisticNot
12-10-2010, 08:13 PM
No, Werth's contract is definitely still the worse

Yendil
12-10-2010, 08:27 PM
Scott Boras : “I just, I can’t believe this. I just can’t believe this,” he continued, “At least with A-Rod I had some numbers to fall back on. But this time, I was like, ****, he can, um….hit baseballs far?”

:laugh: best part of the article

northsider
12-10-2010, 09:53 PM
Might also help we have a pretty damn good hitting coach and most likely seen something we could adjust to his swing.

Jilly Bohnson
12-10-2010, 10:34 PM
I dont care what anyone says, its a bad deal. Pena was garbage last year, he's not worth the 10MM, when you post up numbers like those, you dont at all deserve that kind of money

We're not paying him for what he did last year, we're paying for what he's going to do this year, and it's unlikely he'll hit .196 again. With his power/patience, he's a very good player as long as he can maintain about a .240 average.

el_primo_nano
12-10-2010, 11:25 PM
:laugh: there is none, however i believe he will have a bounce back year, but for $10 mil.. Man that makes no sense

northsider
12-11-2010, 12:20 AM
I really don't see how this is a blip on the radar with the Contracts that have been tossed out this year. Its a one year deal on a guy who is in a contract year, is moving out of the AL east to the NL and a somewhat of a hitters park, the Cubs were going to pick up a left handed bat and 1b and might as well get someone with a high upside with not much to lose in the long run.

Swishalicious
12-11-2010, 02:34 AM
$10 million is a lot. I think Pena might struggle in the NL because he is going to need to read up on those scouting reports, get to know the league.

giants73756
12-11-2010, 02:47 AM
Funny how White Sox fans make up 80% of the people who think this signing is bad. I thought it was cool that Cardinals fans, who are the Cubs' rivals, gave some good reasoning why it is a good signing. Cards fans really are the best fans in baseball.

hoggin88
12-11-2010, 03:02 AM
$10 million is a lot. I think Pena might struggle in the NL because he is going to need to read up on those scouting reports, get to know the league.

Or maybe the pitchers will struggle with him since he is a new hitter in the league. :shrug:

cambovenzi
12-11-2010, 03:11 AM
Funny how White Sox fans make up 80% of the people who think this signing is bad. I thought it was cool that Cardinals fans, who are the Cubs' rivals, gave some good reasoning why it is a good signing. Cards fans really are the best fans in baseball.

:puke:

TheShock45
12-11-2010, 03:22 AM
I love this deal, The Cubs should go into rebuilding but they can't, they're the cubs they need to contend. Yes they overpaid but for one year. If he faulters then no big deal he's gone after the season. If he bounces back the choices are endless, they can extend him for the future, let him walk for draft picks or if he's doing great but the cubs are sucking they can trade him to a contender for 2-3prospects. I love this deal by them.

TheNatural
12-11-2010, 03:30 AM
Personally, and I have no motivation whatsoever, I think it's a good signing. For one, deferring 5 million makes alot of sense, this means that you pay 5 million this year for a guy that has realistic potential to get you 3 WAR. At 4-4.5 million per win, that's a huge bargain. If he gets you 3 WAR, you can look at that 5 million owed next year like it were a signing bonus for a 2 or 3 year deal.

If he tanks, well you are only out 5 million a year for the next 2 years. Sure it may sting, but 5 million on the market is 1-1.5 wins. Write it off and move on.

The genius of this move is his potential to be an impact player for relatively cheap. If he hits .230 he's nearly a lock for 25 jacks. Who gives a **** about a .200 average? He doesn't hit for high average, get over it. He still has a sweet swing. He has a decent eye, and he can play his position adequately. He's a seriously poor man's Adam Dunn that can actually half *** play the field. I say it's a good deal for the Cubs and I hope it works out for them.

cambovenzi
12-11-2010, 03:48 AM
Personally, and I have no motivation whatsoever, I think it's a good signing. For one, deferring 5 million makes alot of sense, this means that you pay 5 million this year for a guy that has realistic potential to get you 3 WAR. At 4-4.5 million per win, that's a huge bargain. If he gets you 3 WAR, you can look at that 5 million owed next year like it were a signing bonus for a 2 or 3 year deal.

If he tanks, well you are only out 5 million a year for the next 2 years. Sure it may sting, but 5 million on the market is 1-1.5 wins. Write it off and move on.

The genius of this move is his potential to be an impact player for relatively cheap. If he hits .230 he's nearly a lock for 25 jacks. Who gives a **** about a .200 average? He doesn't hit for high average, get over it. He still has a sweet swing. He has a decent eye, and he can play his position adequately. He's a seriously poor man's Adam Dunn that can actually half *** play the field. I say it's a good deal for the Cubs and I hope it works out for them.

He was one of the worst 1Bman in the league last season.

hoggin88
12-11-2010, 04:07 AM
Personally, and I have no motivation whatsoever, I think it's a good signing. For one, deferring 5 million makes alot of sense, this means that you pay 5 million this year for a guy that has realistic potential to get you 3 WAR. At 4-4.5 million per win, that's a huge bargain. If he gets you 3 WAR, you can look at that 5 million owed next year like it were a signing bonus for a 2 or 3 year deal.

If he tanks, well you are only out 5 million a year for the next 2 years. Sure it may sting, but 5 million on the market is 1-1.5 wins. Write it off and move on.

The genius of this move is his potential to be an impact player for relatively cheap. If he hits .230 he's nearly a lock for 25 jacks. Who gives a **** about a .200 average? He doesn't hit for high average, get over it. He still has a sweet swing. He has a decent eye, and he can play his position adequately. He's a seriously poor man's Adam Dunn that can actually half *** play the field. I say it's a good deal for the Cubs and I hope it works out for them.

I get what you're saying batting average, but let's face it: Pena won't be putting up a .196/.350/.500 line. It just isn't going to happen. His average is relevant in this case and needs to rise if he is going to be effective offensively. If he can pull it up to .240 then he will probably be in business since it will lift his OBP and SLG along with it.

Norieaga
12-11-2010, 11:44 AM
Very low BABIP plus decent OBP despite a very low AVG = good risk. I bet he bounces back. He was still taking his walks, thus the plate discipline is there. Also has a solid glove if I recall correctly.