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The X
12-08-2010, 07:04 PM
Will the Tampa bay rays be contenders in 2011? We all know the rays are a great, young team but without pena, soriano, crawrord, and a bit more it just seems like a lineup of fast players with great defense. Not too mention a great rotation. But now compare that to the Yankees and red sox roster. I don't think they'll get anywhere with that.

So will they be aiming to contend in 2011 or 2012

F*(&"Next Year"
12-08-2010, 07:09 PM
My guess:

Red Sox 95-67
Yankees 93-69
Toronto 88-74
Tampa 85-77
Baltimore 71-91

North Country
12-08-2010, 07:11 PM
Will the Tampa bay rays be contenders in 2011? We all know the rays are a great, young team but without pena, soriano, crawrord, and a bit more it just seems like a lineup of fast players with great defense. Not too mention a great rotation. But now compare that to the Yankees and red sox roster. I don't think they'll get anywhere with that.

So will they be aiming to contend in 2011 or 2012

At this point in the offseason, they look like they'll probably be a team with a win total in the 80's next year. And in the AL East, that's not good enough for a playoff spot. But there's a lot of time left in the offseason, it's way too early to tell what they'll look like next year.

The Jokemaker
12-08-2010, 07:11 PM
I think Tampa will be good but they'll need a year to develop some of these younger guys before they step up to contention again.

Brave4life
12-08-2010, 07:14 PM
Highly doubt it

I can actually see the Bluejays finishing ahead of the Rays.

The Rays have the rotation but not the hitting anymore.

Losing a combined

HR-47
RBI-174
SB- 52 (47 crawford)
Runs- 174

F*(&"Next Year"
12-08-2010, 07:19 PM
I think Tampa will be good but they'll need a year to develop some of these younger guys before they step up to contention again.
Honestly, I don't think the rays will contend in the AL East for quite some time. I forsee mid 80 win seasons for a while which wont be able to match the Sox or Yanks.

Jeffy25
12-08-2010, 07:19 PM
they will be .500 at the very worst.

They have everyone that was their core returning, and the one's leaving (crawford, pena, Soriano) all have replacements ready.

Rays will still be very good. If I was to venture a guess. I say 90 wins. Their core is very good and very young. The Rays will be a 90 win caliber team for at least the next five years, and if Friedman does things right, the next decade.

LeQuit James
12-08-2010, 07:22 PM
121 wins no doubt

Capital G
12-08-2010, 07:23 PM
losing soriano and crawford will sting. pena... eh.

its going to be tough to contend w. the bosox and yanks.

they would be contenders in probably most other divisions.... but not the AL E

MooseWithFleas
12-08-2010, 07:24 PM
I think their win total will be somewhere in the low to mid 80's

Ty Fast
12-08-2010, 07:34 PM
i heard they might trade matt garza

dtmagnet
12-08-2010, 07:56 PM
With the Sox and Yankees signing a fresh crop of free-agents/trading for superstars and the Blue Jays on the rise I think Tampa will not contend for quite some time.

jd25213
12-08-2010, 08:04 PM
They knew this past season was their best chance to win it all for a while, so that's why they made all those moves, but they know it will be some time before they can contend again.

Bo Sox Fan
12-08-2010, 08:06 PM
Boston
Toronto
New York
Tampa Bay
Baltimore

Rodney Stuckey
12-08-2010, 08:09 PM
boston
toronto
new york
tampa bay
baltimore

this

NYYCowboys
12-08-2010, 08:15 PM
Boston
Toronto
New York
Tampa Bay
Baltimore

HAHAHA The Yankees finishing in 3rd? Please. The Red Sox got one good hitter and now all of a sudden they're better than the Yankees? It's way too early to say who will finish where considering we don't know who will sign where yet, but picking Toronto over the Yankees is utterly ridiculous. If the Yankees sign Lee I think they are by far the favorites.

TheRuckus
12-08-2010, 08:15 PM
Yes. And with the sheer amount of talent on their farm and depth on their roster, they'll almost certainly be contending for a good long while.

They may not make the playoffs - in such a hypercompetitive division, a key injury or lackluster season from a good player is all it takes to fall out of the picture - but they'll be in the hunt.

People are making a huge deal about Crawford, Pena and Soriano leaving, but let's look at it logically. Losing Crawford hurts, but Desmond Jennings is one of the best prospects in baseball and projects to basically be Crawford. Pena had a terrible (unlucky) year in 2010 and they still won 96 games. As for Soriano, closer is the most overrated job in sports. They've lost Benoit and may lose Choate and Balfour, but remember that they've got Howell coming back and the front office has shown an impressive ability to piece together a good bullpen. Last year was a prime example.

The Rays are the most well-run organization in sports, and they're set up for a long, prosperous future. If they played in any other division, we might be talking about a dynasty in the making.

Bronzbomba
12-08-2010, 08:26 PM
Yankees
Redsox
Rays
Jays
O's

Clearly the most likely scenario...

Jeffy25
12-08-2010, 08:33 PM
let's not forget that the Jays did over perform.

I wouldn't assume they should do any better than what they did last year.

I go

Red Sox
Yankees
Rays
Jays
O's

But any change of the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays are interchangeable. I wouldn't be surprised if those three switched in their orders in anyway.

Jays should be around .500, hopefully

North Country
12-08-2010, 08:36 PM
HAHAHA The Yankees finishing in 3rd? Please. The Red Sox got one good hitter and now all of a sudden they're better than the Yankees? It's way too early to say who will finish where considering we don't know who will sign where yet, but picking Toronto over the Yankees is utterly ridiculous. If the Yankees sign Lee I think they are by far the favorites.

If the Yankees sign Lee and Pettitte and the Red Sox stand pat, the Yankees would definitely be the favorites. But that first set of circumstances is unlikely and right now the Red Sox are the better team.

xxplayerxx23
12-08-2010, 08:55 PM
Boston
Toronto
New York
Tampa Bay
Baltimore

Funny i see it like this
Newyork
toronto
boston
tampa bay
Baltimore.

Hunter48MVP
12-08-2010, 08:58 PM
Doesn't look good for the Rays

Jeffy25
12-08-2010, 09:04 PM
Doesn't look good for the Rays

I don't see why

The Red Sox added a player, the Yankees are getting older, and the Rays lost a couple of role players, one that didn't even produce last year.

in 2011, they are getting Jennings to replace Crawford, that isn't a major down grade. 20th best prospect in baseball.

To replace Pena, they have many options, but they haven't seemingly brought in a veteran yet to play with a younger guy yet.

Zobrist can play second, and Rodriguez can play short.

And all their super young guys, are now a year older.

I don't think this next season will be a major drop off for them, especially if Zobrist can play anywhere near his 2009 like self.

Their rotation just keeps getting better too, that is what is scary.

jon32
12-08-2010, 09:18 PM
Unless they spend some money then unfortunatly no. Pitching will be good but they missed their chance the last few years and now the contracts are running up and they cant pay up.

BoSox
Jays/yanks ( all depends on the teams signing/trading for who they supposedly want, Jays are also alot closer to contending than people think, no reason to degress from last year.)
Jays/yanks
Rays
O's

NYY 26 to 7
12-08-2010, 09:36 PM
The Jay's would be so good if people picking teams decided every year - every off season a trendy pick. Boston #1 cuz of one trade?? That was not even close to their only problem. I won't predict I'll just let the offseason play out - Yanks got plenty money - then the season. Don't get it twisted if the Yanks had Lee in the midseason trade it most likely would have been back to back.

Chi StateOfMind
12-08-2010, 09:45 PM
they will wins 80 games but way too much power the the east 3rd or 4th place

Jeffy25
12-08-2010, 09:51 PM
The Jay's would be so good if people picking teams decided every year - every off season a trendy pick. Boston #1 cuz of one trade?? That was not even close to their only problem. I won't predict I'll just let the offseason play out - Yanks got plenty money - then the season. Don't get it twisted if the Yanks had Lee in the midseason trade it most likely would have been back to back.

A-Gone basically replaces Beltre

jon32
12-08-2010, 09:53 PM
A-Gone basically replaces Beltre

half of bostons starters were injured last season. A healthy youk and pedroia and rotation....only means a better season

The Jokemaker
12-08-2010, 09:55 PM
I don't see why

The Red Sox added a player, the Yankees are getting older, and the Rays lost a couple of role players, one that didn't even produce last year.
.

Are you implying that carl crawford, carlos pena, and soriano were role players?

Last I checked role players aren't in line for 100 million dollar contracts (crawford).

Tabbert
12-08-2010, 09:55 PM
half of bostons starters were injured last season. A healthy youk and pedroia and rotation....only means a better season

what's to say they wont have injuries again this season?

Tabbert
12-08-2010, 10:01 PM
I find it funny that people are predicting the yankees to finish in third place in their own division this year. This is the same team that just won a world series and made it to the ALCS the last two seasons. But for some reason people believe that the yankees won't fill their pitching voids? please. The yankees still have the best offense in all of baseball, still have a good pen, and they will have a solid rotation when the season starts. The Redsox and Yankees are clearly the two best teams in the division and both teams will make the playoffs. But, hey... if we want to keep making ridiculous predictions i will say my AL EAST looks like this

Baltimore
Toronto
Tampa Bay
New York
Boston

Obviously The o's have young talent and they will have the upper edge on all the really old teams....

jon32
12-08-2010, 10:03 PM
what's to say they wont have injuries again this season?

True. But in saying that then what's to say half of new yorks or tampas team gets injured too? I made my assumption based on teams projected starters as of now barring no injury

North Country
12-08-2010, 10:03 PM
I don't see why

The Red Sox added a player, the Yankees are getting older, and the Rays lost a couple of role players, one that didn't even produce last year.

Carl Crawford's a role player? Fangraphs estmates that he was worth 6.9 wins last year.

North Country
12-08-2010, 10:08 PM
A-Gone basically replaces Beltre

A-Gon's much better than Beltre was last year. Here's their park adjusted wOBA's.

Beltre
2010 - .384

A-Gon
2010 - .414
2009 - .442
2008 - .402

Plus, the Red Sox will likely get significantly more playing time out of their best position players (Pedroia, A-Gon, Youkilis). and Beckett and Lackey's career stats suggest they'll have much better seasons next year.

jon32
12-08-2010, 10:09 PM
I find it funny that people are predicting the yankees to finish in third place in their own division this year. This is the same team that just won a world series and made it to the ALCS the last two seasons. But for some reason people believe that the yankees won't fill their pitching voids? please. The yankees still have the best offense in all of baseball, still have a good pen, and they will have a solid rotation when the season starts. The Redsox and Yankees are clearly the two best teams in the division and both teams will make the playoffs. But, hey... if we want to keep making ridiculous predictions i will say my AL EAST looks like this

Baltimore
Toronto
Tampa Bay
New York
Boston


Obviously The o's have young talent and they will have the upper edge on all the really old teams....

thats more like it

Tabbert
12-08-2010, 10:09 PM
True. But in saying that then what's to say half of new yorks or tampas team gets injured too? I made my assumption based on teams projected starters as of now barring no injury

yea, i understand. I just don't like when people say " well were goiing to be awesome! this year because we had injuries last year". All teams face the same risk of injury going into every season. It is impossible to know how the redsox or any other team will play next season just because they are healthy. Some people in here are ready to crown the redsox because they are healthy again. While i do realize that the yankees and redsox are the best two teams in the AL EAST I think it is pretty silly to just claim a team is going to be super amazing just because they are healthy again. Hell, some players never return to their old form after they suffer injury.

Jeffy25
12-08-2010, 10:11 PM
A-Gon's much better than Beltre was last year. Here's their park adjusted wOBA's.

Beltre
2010 - .384

A-Gon
2010 - .414
2009 - .442
2008 - .402

Plus, the Red Sox will likely get significantly more playing time out of their best position players (Pedroia, A-Gon, Youkilis). and Beckett and Lackey's career stats suggest they'll have much better seasons next year.

As a hitter, sure.

As an overall contributor, including defensive value, which you lose even more so because A-Gone plays a lesser valuable defensive position. Gonzalez posted a 6.3 WAR last year, Beltre a 6.1. Adrian basically replaces Adrian in terms of value to the team.

Gonzalez is obviously the better hitter.

Jeffy25
12-08-2010, 10:13 PM
Carl Crawford's a role player? Fangraphs estmates that he was worth 6.9 wins last year.

I meant core, not role.

Crawford was a core player, but Jennings could, within a couple of years easily, be worth the same, and at a much lower cost.

North Country
12-08-2010, 10:20 PM
As a hitter, sure.

As an overall contributor, including defensive value, which you lose even more so because A-Gone plays a lesser valuable defensive position. Gonzalez posted a 6.3 WAR last year, Beltre a 6.1. Adrian basically replaces Adrian in terms of value to the team.

Gonzalez is obviously the better hitter.

If Gonzalez had a better WAR as a 1B, then he's clearly the better all around player because WAR heavily penalizes first baseman. Offensively, they're getting much better. Defensively, it's pretty much a wash. They're significantly upgrading their defense at first going from Youkilis to Gonzalez as well as downgrading their defense at third going from Beltre to Youkilis.

TheRuckus
12-08-2010, 10:27 PM
If Gonzalez had a better WAR as a 1B, then he's clearly the better all around player because WAR heavily penalizes first baseman. Offensively, they're getting much better. Defensively, it's pretty much a wash. They're significantly upgrading their defense at first going from Youkilis to Gonzalez as well as downgrading their defense at third going from Beltre to Youkilis.

Also, Fangraphs doesn't park-adjust their wOBA, so it's probably not even as close as it looks from just the raw WAR totals.

jon32
12-08-2010, 10:29 PM
Still learnin some of the crazy stats......what's wOBA ?

samevans7
12-08-2010, 10:33 PM
what's to say they wont have injuries again this season?

what if teix and cano get injured, and CC plays the way he did with cleveland after winning the Cy Young? The Yankees would be terrible.

Over/Under wins for RDSX SP:

Lester 20
Buchholz 19
Lackey 17
Beckett 17
Matsuzaka 16

If you look at the stats for these players in their 2nd year (or in case of Lester and Clay, when they first go over 20 starts: 3rd year for Lester, 4th for Clay), they are very good


Lester: 16-6, 3.21 ERA
Buchholz: 17-7, 2.33 ERA
Lackey: TBD: 2011 season
Beckett: 20-7, 3.27 ERA
Matsuzaka: 18-3, 2.90 ERA

Lackey should do very well, barring injury

Jeffy25
12-08-2010, 10:39 PM
If Gonzalez had a better WAR as a 1B, then he's clearly the better all around player because WAR heavily penalizes first baseman. Offensively, they're getting much better. Defensively, it's pretty much a wash. They're significantly upgrading their defense at first going from Youkilis to Gonzalez as well as downgrading their defense at third going from Beltre to Youkilis.

That is why it is basically a wash.

.2 runs different from their 2010 totals.

Swishalicious
12-08-2010, 10:41 PM
The Rays still have young talent.... Im really interested in Hellickson ( i think that's how you spell it).

I think they will finish 3rd however because the Yankees and Red Sox are going to make moves to improve their team.... the Rays are losing players/staying the same/calling up young talent. Idk, just can't see the Rays beating the Yanks or Sox

North Country
12-08-2010, 11:02 PM
what's to say they wont have injuries again this season?

That's like saying "who's to say the Yankees won't have Cano, Gardner and Granderson miss most of the year, Teixeira and Sabathia miss a couple months and have Lee, Hughes, Posada and 7 members of their bench and bullpen go on the DL?" That was pretty much the extent of the injuries last year to the Red Sox.

It's possible, but highly unlikely that the Red Sox suffer nearly as many injuries as they did last year.

North Country
12-08-2010, 11:03 PM
That is why it is basically a wash.

.2 runs different from their 2010 totals.

How is getting much better offensively and prety much staying the same defensivley a wash?

And where is your .2 run differential coming from?

Swishalicious
12-08-2010, 11:12 PM
That's like saying "who's to say the Yankees won't have Cano, Gardner and Granderson miss most of the year, Teixeira and Sabathia miss a couple months and have Lee, Hughes, Posada and 7 members of their bench and bullpen go on the DL?" That was pretty much the extent of the injuries last year to the Red Sox.

It's possible, but highly unlikely that the Red Sox suffer nearly as many injuries as they did last year.

1) Your earlier posts about Beckett, Matsuzaka, and Lackey aren't very impartial. You took Beckett's best year with the Red Sox, Matsuzaka ONLY good year, and Lackey's horrible year in the AL East in 2010 is completely overlooked. I think the Red Sox have a good starting rotation, don't get me wrong, but let's be fair and not give more credit than is deserved.

2) It's highly unlikely that ANY team will suffer as much as the Red Sox did last year and how the Mets did in 2009. Regardless, injuries does not excuse losing. Injuries are part of the game and if a team loses, they lose, there are no "what ifs" or "would've".

Jeffy25
12-08-2010, 11:22 PM
How is getting much better offensively and prety much staying the same defensivley a wash?

And where is your .2 run differential coming from?

Baseball reference.

You aren't getting a wash defensively. 3B is a more important defensive position than 1B. And you are getting an upgraded defensive value at first, but losing about the same defensive value that you gain, at third.

You are getting worse defensively. Unless you somehow think Youk is better defensively at third then he must be at first. :cool:

You gain some offensive value, but when overall value comes around, you basically have a wash.

Ty Fast
12-08-2010, 11:25 PM
I find it funny that people are predicting the yankees to finish in third place in their own division this year. This is the same team that just won a world series and made it to the ALCS the last two seasons. But for some reason people believe that the yankees won't fill their pitching voids? please. The yankees still have the best offense in all of baseball, still have a good pen, and they will have a solid rotation when the season starts. The Redsox and Yankees are clearly the two best teams in the division and both teams will make the playoffs. But, hey... if we want to keep making ridiculous predictions i will say my AL EAST looks like this

Baltimore
Toronto
Tampa Bay
New York
Boston

Obviously The o's have young talent and they will have the upper edge on all the really old teams....

i agree 100%. the royals will win the central too.

Dogdeity11
12-08-2010, 11:48 PM
While it's always wildly entertaining, (No sarcasm...I mean it honestly), to read Red Sox and Yankee fans debate, my opinion is that it is still far too early to make any sort of educated prediction regarding the division.
Everyone is still making moves.
As far as the Rays contending, I have the pleasure of watching this team play daily and even with the loss of Crawford, (The only loss thus far that I believe has any significant implications for next year), they will continue to be competitive. They are young, have terrific management and always believe in themselves. Additionally, they do not play with the same national pressure on their backs that the Yanks and Sox do.
But again, still some changes to come. Bartlett trade. Possible Garza trade. They need bullpen help. Just like all teams at this stage of the off-season.