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View Full Version : Win Shares vs. WAR



elements1985
12-07-2010, 06:35 PM
Which is the better metric? How is WAR calculated? And how do Win Shares not penalize a player for playing on an inferior team?

C1Bman88
12-07-2010, 10:27 PM
WAR; it's a much simpler design and is more accurate in its portrayal of a player's estimated value. Win Shares is the only metric of its kind to account for total wins to a player's team, which makes it unique in that regard- and its complexity is admirable but unnecessary.

There are different variations of WAR, but the framework is all the same: a player's offensive runs above average, defensive runs above average, adjustment for positional difficulty and an adjustment for playing time. You can find one primer here:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/#winvalues

Toirtap
12-08-2010, 10:25 AM
And how do Win Shares not penalize a player for playing on an inferior team?

What Win Shares actually penalizes is players that play on inefficient teams (that is, teams that win less games than their component statistics indicate they should). If a player is on a team with a poor record that wins games at the same rate Win Shares' win estimator expects them to based on their runs scored and allowed, an individual player will simply be getting a larger piece of a smaller pie.