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View Full Version : This Year's Biggest Free Agent Bust



MelkyNYY
11-24-2010, 05:57 PM
I'm going to go with Carl Crawford. I honestly don't think he's going to live up to whatever contract he gets and his game has never been appealing to me when you play it up against the aging process of a baseball player.

Who do you guys think will NOT be worth their contract (whatever it is you think they will get)?

The Jokemaker
11-24-2010, 06:02 PM
I gotta go with Jayson Werth on this one. I just don't see him ever living up to that contract being billed as a middle of the order hitter.

The_Franchise13
11-24-2010, 06:04 PM
Adrian Beltre.

Unless he just signs a 1 year deal.

metsgiants5710
11-24-2010, 06:08 PM
Adrian Beltre.

Unless he just signs a 1 year deal.

yea beltre only plays well in contract years

MelkyNYY
11-24-2010, 06:12 PM
I think Beltre just plays well at Fenway.

RTL
11-24-2010, 06:14 PM
I will say Werth if he goes to the AL.

NYYCowboys
11-24-2010, 06:21 PM
Javier Vazquez. Any team would be nuts to be offering this bum 10 mil per year. People will say he wasn't fit for NY, which he wasn't, but in addition to that his velocity is down, and his stuff looked a lot weaker than it did just a year before in Atlanta.

Towelie
11-24-2010, 06:36 PM
yea beltre only plays well in contract years

Ya, thats why he signed that massive 1 year deal for Boston cause he had a great contract year in Seattle.

MooseWithFleas
11-24-2010, 06:39 PM
Beltre's the first name that came to my mind as well. Mostly because this has happened once before. Not saying Beltre was bad in Seattle, but he didn't live up to the hype of his contract.

Twins Fan 7
11-24-2010, 06:48 PM
Werth.

fadedmario
11-24-2010, 06:51 PM
Werth

Gators123
11-24-2010, 06:52 PM
Werth

Ty Fast
11-24-2010, 06:57 PM
Carl Pavano

fadedmario
11-24-2010, 07:00 PM
Cliff Lee

Jeffy25
11-24-2010, 07:04 PM
Werth or Crawford.

Beltre will be worth his contract, if only for his defense.

Vazquez, if on a one year deal, will be well worth it.

Dunn will earn what he gets paid, especially if he DH's

SouljahPhil...
11-24-2010, 07:16 PM
Derek Jeter...

Jeffy25
11-24-2010, 07:25 PM
Derek Jeter...

oh, good one. Surprised he has not been said yet.

Yes, Jeter

sep11ie
11-24-2010, 07:27 PM
Gotta be Cliff Lee, or if Jeter gets 15 mill a year.

Cheezombie
11-24-2010, 07:28 PM
I think Beltre just plays well at Fenway.

Tell that to Beltre's away numbers.

gfixer33
11-24-2010, 08:20 PM
Manny ramirez

BoognishMN
11-24-2010, 08:29 PM
I want to say Derek Jeter, but even at 15 million, the Yankees are expected him to be an average or slightly below average player. If it were strickly a formula that was based on dollars spent for performace, it would be Jeter. That said, Jeter will be paid for his "legacy" and so he can retire a Yankee. Also the Yankees can afford to overpay, I think a true bust also should factor in how bad his contract cripples a franchise. On that merit I think it will be Carl Crawford, if he gets a 7 year deal, he be on the downside of his career for at least the last 2-3 years and his legs are going to go fast.

samevans7
11-24-2010, 08:37 PM
john buck, anybody?

MelanconMadness
11-24-2010, 08:41 PM
Jeter.

Lee also wont be worth the money he makes in the latter years of the contract

soundjunkies2
11-24-2010, 09:03 PM
Ya, thats why he signed that massive 1 year deal for Boston cause he had a great contract year in Seattle.

And a great contract year with the Dodgers. It seems like that's the only time he plays well.

eXpLiiCt
11-24-2010, 09:06 PM
John Buck

Soxfan54
11-24-2010, 09:24 PM
Cliff Lee

yankswin27
11-24-2010, 09:27 PM
Werth in the AL.

long ball
11-24-2010, 09:35 PM
If a team any free agent pitcher other than Cliff Lee a 3 year deal they're kidding themselves. Pavano and De La Rosa are scrubs.

No Fun League
11-24-2010, 10:09 PM
Jeter

n83417
11-24-2010, 10:17 PM
Werthless for sure. I have never seen a player so overrated. He is a nice player, just so ridiculously "above average" all around. When he and Crawford are commanding $17+ Million, you know the Free Agent class is weak.

Towelie
11-24-2010, 10:18 PM
Why do people think Werth can't hit in the AL?

jd25213
11-24-2010, 10:24 PM
Beltre

sexicano31
11-24-2010, 10:53 PM
Crawford. Will most likely be signed to a long term, lucrative deal and then in the latter years, if not within 2-3 years, he will start to decline due to his skill set. Same thing will/has happened to Chone Figgens already

StriveGreatness
11-24-2010, 11:41 PM
Cliff Lee

SouljahPhil...
11-25-2010, 01:19 AM
oh, good one. Surprised he has not been said yet.

Yes, Jeter

I was also surprised..IF jeter is playing for another team not named Yankees I doubt if he even gets more than 8 million.. He is gonna be paid because of legacy and loyalty not by performance..

Swishalicious
11-25-2010, 03:06 AM
I'm gonna say Rafael Soriano...

I think Soriano will be a decent closer, but not the same level as his was in 2010.

RTL
11-25-2010, 08:50 AM
Why do people think Werth can't hit in the AL?

Because he is moving from a stacked lineup in a hitter's park and the fact that the majority of players switching leagues have problems? At least that was my reasoning.

DieHardCubFan
11-25-2010, 11:04 AM
Adrian Beltre

RedSox>Yankees
11-25-2010, 11:53 AM
Crawford

SouljahPhil...
11-25-2010, 11:59 AM
what the hell is up with all these spammers?

mark1125
11-25-2010, 12:51 PM
If we are strictly talking performance for the dollar, I would say:

1) Beltre. He plays well when it is for a contract. He will get paid and will be OK, but not worth the $.

2) Jeter. He has become very average. If he does explore the market, anyone who pays more than 6-8 million will not get the value on the field.

3) Crawford. I like the guy a lot, but my guess is he gets a 5 yr deal. His speed will start to crash in a couple yrs and his OBP has never been stellar. He will be good, but I doubt he earns his contract.

4) Pavano. Had a nice year, but he is going to get overpaid by someone desperate for a SP. Buyer beware.

FWBrodie
11-25-2010, 01:46 PM
Jason Bay.

koldjerky
11-25-2010, 01:58 PM
Werthless for sure. I have never seen a player so overrated. He is a nice player, just so ridiculously "above average" all around. When he and Crawford are commanding $17+ Million, you know the Free Agent class is weak.

I don't understand how he's overrated, but ok.

Crawford or Jeter.

yankswin27
11-25-2010, 04:41 PM
Aubrey Huff was the best bargain signing of the year last year. I'm not saying he's gonna be a bust in the near future, but I wouldn't expect him to play like he did in 2010 ever again.

Bo Sox Fan
11-25-2010, 05:14 PM
Getting back to the original title of this thread,

When it comes down to money and years based on performance, the biggest bust will be Derek Jeter hands down when he eventually resigns with the Yankees.

But good on Jeter to soak the Yankees for all he can get even knowing there is no other team out there that will even come close to matching 3 years, $45-$60 million.

All the Yankees rediculous spending the past decade has finally come back to bite them in the *****, as they have created there own money grabbing monster in there very own captain... Derek Jeter.

Rdy2PlayBall
11-25-2010, 06:32 PM
Manny for sure. (unless he's on the White Sox, then he will be MVP. :P)

Yendil
11-25-2010, 06:49 PM
Beltre's the first name that came to my mind as well. Mostly because this has happened once before. Not saying Beltre was bad in Seattle, but he didn't live up to the hype of his contract.

That is because Bavasi was an idiot who thought he could still hit homeruns in Safeco. Beltre is a flyball hitter and Fenway favors that while in Safeco it is an out. But his defense was and still is amazing.

Towelie
11-26-2010, 01:34 AM
Because he is moving from a stacked lineup in a hitter's park and the fact that the majority of players switching leagues have problems? At least that was my reasoning.

So what would happen if he went to Fenway Park? Nothing would change then.

bringinwood
11-26-2010, 01:54 AM
Jeter is worth 45MM over 3 yrs if he never steps foot on a baseball diamond again...

If he's doing the team's laundry and sings the national anthem, he's still worth 15MM a year...


I'd have to say Jayson Werth... Werth is going to sign a contract north of 100MM over 6 or 7 years and he's never shown that he can carry an offense...

He has never shown he can hit without Chase Utley and Ryan Howard hitting in front of him...

Outside of him, I can't see another guy getting a contract that will be so absurd it's unconcievable...

Even Crawford, who gets double digits in steals, homers, doubles, and triples every season will be worth his contract...

He has had over 40 steals every season except 2... His rookie year when he only got in a little over 60 games and 2008 when he was hurt a majority of the season... Most of those seasons, he has had over 50...

Towelie
11-26-2010, 02:01 AM
Werth isn't going to sign over 100M or 6 or 7 years. He's gonna get 5 tops. It's not going to be a 5 year 100 million contract.

Yet Crawford would be worth 7 years? :laugh: You think he's gonna keep stealing 40+ for 7 more years? He's a 15 HR guy now, it's not going to get better from him.

justndav
11-26-2010, 05:16 AM
Just about every top guy in this years FA class has bust potential. Cliff Lee after about three or four more years is going to be risky, Werth may not be as good with less hitters behind him in the lineup, Crawfords legs could give out and then some team will be paying huge money to a guy for hitting 15-20hrs a year? Wow. I really don't think any of the top guys are worth more than three to four years tops for a contract. Jeter isn't worth more than about $8mil a year now quite honestly. And I wouldn't give him anything more than two years.

If all these guys were 25 or so then I could see spending some big bucks but they aren't 25... any team will regret give Cliff Lee big money for six or seven years (go back and see Kevin Brown and how that big contract worked out).

EaglesJackson10
11-26-2010, 12:09 PM
Werthless for sure. I have never seen a player so overrated. He is a nice player, just so ridiculously "above average" all around. When he and Crawford are commanding $17+ Million, you know the Free Agent class is weak.

How the hell is Werth overrated. There are plenty of numbers to back it up. He was probably the best position player last year on a team that won 97 games.

koldjerky
11-26-2010, 02:08 PM
Jeter is worth 45MM over 3 yrs if he never steps foot on a baseball diamond again...

If he's doing the team's laundry and sings the national anthem, he's still worth 15MM a year...


I'd have to say Jayson Werth... Werth is going to sign a contract north of 100MM over 6 or 7 years and he's never shown that he can carry an offense...

He has never shown he can hit without Chase Utley and Ryan Howard hitting in front of him...

Outside of him, I can't see another guy getting a contract that will be so absurd it's unconcievable...

Even Crawford, who gets double digits in steals, homers, doubles, and triples every season will be worth his contract...

He has had over 40 steals every season except 2... His rookie year when he only got in a little over 60 games and 2008 when he was hurt a majority of the season... Most of those seasons, he has had over 50...

I'll give his last 3 seasons since that is when he's been in Philly with the FT RF role.

His last 3 seasons he primarily has batted 5th which is right behind Utley and Howard. He posted a very solid .946 OPS in 834 ABs.

Now I will only list spots where he had at least 100 ABs (to deduce from small sample sizes)

Batting 2nd: .883 OPS in 157 ABs
Batting 3rd: .711 OPS in 134 ABs
Batting 6th: .882 OPS in 299 ABs

So even if you want to say, "Hey, look if he's batting directly in front of Howard he's not good." well him batting 2nd which would have no direct correlation between Utley or Howard (besides, actually being the one to set them up rather than him being set up by them) he actually is a hell of a good hitter.

Over his career he doesn't seem to be the best 3 hole hitter (still a small sample size) he's a solid and very importantly patient (in that 3 year span, besides the 3 hole, he's posted at least a .373 OBP) hitter.

Jayson Werth is not an overrated hitter and you should be able to bat him where ever you want.

I will agree that he isn't a superstar talent to build your team around, I don't think anybody thinks that, but you put him in there with any sort of talented or compatent hitter and you'll have yourself a nice line-up.

Jayson Werth has gone from underrated to overrated overnight, it's ridiculous.

Pinstripe pride
11-26-2010, 02:30 PM
jeter

Saint Brian
11-26-2010, 03:04 PM
Werth

Swishalicious
11-26-2010, 03:38 PM
I'll give his last 3 seasons since that is when he's been in Philly with the FT RF role.

His last 3 seasons he primarily has batted 5th which is right behind Utley and Howard. He posted a very solid .946 OPS in 834 ABs.

Now I will only list spots where he had at least 100 ABs (to deduce from small sample sizes)

Batting 2nd: .883 OPS in 157 ABs
Batting 3rd: .711 OPS in 134 ABs
Batting 6th: .882 OPS in 299 ABs

So even if you want to say, "Hey, look if he's batting directly in front of Howard he's not good." well him batting 2nd which would have no direct correlation between Utley or Howard (besides, actually being the one to set them up rather than him being set up by them) he actually is a hell of a good hitter.

Over his career he doesn't seem to be the best 3 hole hitter (still a small sample size) he's a solid and very importantly patient (in that 3 year span, besides the 3 hole, he's posted at least a .373 OBP) hitter.

Jayson Werth is not an overrated hitter and you should be able to bat him where ever you want.

I will agree that he isn't a superstar talent to build your team around, I don't think anybody thinks that, but you put him in there with any sort of talented or compatent hitter and you'll have yourself a nice line-up.

Jayson Werth has gone from underrated to overrated overnight, it's ridiculous.

To be fair... most players do well in the #2 spot because they get a lot of fastballs to hit. And the #3 spot has the protection of Utley/Howard. The #6 spot is a strong argument though.

Though I think he is really good hitter and is not overrated (well, depending on how one rates him). Just the fact that he hits in the #2 and #3 spot in the phillies lineup means he is a pretty good hitter

koldjerky
11-26-2010, 04:37 PM
To be fair... most players do well in the #2 spot because they get a lot of fastballs to hit. And the #3 spot has the protection of Utley/Howard. The #6 spot is a strong argument though.

Though I think he is really good hitter and is not overrated (well, depending on how one rates him). Just the fact that he hits in the #2 and #3 spot in the phillies lineup means he is a pretty good hitter

That's my point. I only listed those 3 spots because outside of the 5 spot those are the spots he's been placed in the most. You can't really say anyone can hit in the 2nd spot because, well I mean you can but they wouldn't have lines like what I posted for Werth in that spot.

He basically can hit anywhere though and be productive.

Swishalicious
11-26-2010, 04:41 PM
That's my point. I only listed those 3 spots because outside of the 5 spot those are the spots he's been placed in the most. You can't really say anyone can hit in the 2nd spot because, well I mean you can but they wouldn't have lines like what I posted for Werth in that spot.

He basically can hit anywhere though and be productive.

Yeah, his mix of power and speed makes him pretty versatile

NateyB24
11-26-2010, 09:57 PM
Adrian Beltre.

Unless he just signs a 1 year deal.

No. Fenway helped his stats so aslong as he goes to a right handed hitters freindly park he will have no problem hitting. I don't question his work ethic either because he was still a great 3rd Base defender for the Mariners it was the Park.

hype707
11-26-2010, 10:32 PM
JEter. i am suprised no one has said that.

el_primo_nano
11-26-2010, 10:51 PM
Beltre without a doubt. He is a free agency pimp

n83417
11-26-2010, 10:51 PM
How the hell is Werth overrated. There are plenty of numbers to back it up. He was probably the best position player last year on a team that won 97 games.

He does not do anything special. And I meant overrated while considering the contract he will get.

Wrench
11-26-2010, 11:32 PM
Tsuyoshi Nishioka.

None of the pitchers translate.

koldjerky
11-26-2010, 11:34 PM
JEter. i am suprised no one has said that.

Actually, half the people have said that.

MattColby
11-26-2010, 11:37 PM
Derek Jeter...

He was the first one that came to my mind.

GasMan
11-26-2010, 11:58 PM
I think Crawford's speed and defense could hold up for a lot longer than people are giving him credit. Plus, part of stealing bases has nothing to do with speed but more to do with knowing when to run and how to get a jump. A six year deal will take him to 36 years where its not unreasonable to think that a guy with his skill set and work ethic could still swipe 25-30 bases, hit for average and be a plus outfielder.

GasMan
11-27-2010, 12:02 AM
I think Jeter will be overpaid but I would have a hard time calling him a bust. He's a know quantity that will produce below his career average and probably a little better than last year. He won't be worth the 18-20 million the Yankees will give him, but they won't be under any delusions that he will be so I don't think that counts as a bust.

MelkyNYY
11-27-2010, 12:19 AM
Tsuyoshi Nishioka.

None of the pitchers translate.

He's a shortstop.

scottythegreat1
11-27-2010, 12:29 AM
Carl Crawford

Yes...the first 2-3 years of his contract will live up. However after that, once he gets past 32 years old, then everything will start to decline. I know he will get at least 6 years, so itll be a bust. It could be sooner if he injures his foot/ankle.

GasMan
11-27-2010, 12:39 AM
Why 32? And as with most long term contracts, you expect to get more for your money early on and pay out more than your getting at the end. But I think when this next contract is look at retrospectively, the six (or 5 or 7) years of performance will match the dollar amount.

bklynny67
11-27-2010, 12:54 AM
any player the mets sign. they usually end up being a bust, unfortunately.

GoatMilk
11-27-2010, 01:35 AM
Aubrey Huff hopefully


but i think Joaquin Benoit.

mgeise
11-27-2010, 06:41 PM
Jeter depending on what he gets paid.

I can definitely see Werth busting too. I think he will be paid more than what he is worth. Crawford may be overpaid on the open market, but he brings a lot of different things to the table that justify an expensive long-term deal IMO.

celtisox41
11-27-2010, 07:25 PM
Werth, he wants 18 million and he averages .285 with 25 HR and 85 RBI's and will probably do worse because he's old and wants 5 or 6 years

Swishalicious
11-27-2010, 07:27 PM
AJ Burnett...I think his failures carry over from the 2009 free agent signing

SouljahPhil...
11-27-2010, 08:31 PM
He was the first one that came to my mind.

pretty obvious..:D

jej
11-28-2010, 04:31 PM
I think it depends how you look at it.

Long term it will be cliff. Someone will give him a big contract, not thinking about the fact that he is in his 30s, becuae they are blinded by his talent the past years.

In terms of production overall, jeter because he is on the decline, but he us still a leader.

Im gonna go on a limb here and say. Vmart. He is in his 30s as a catcher. He signed a 5 yr 50 mill contract. I dont think thers anyway he lives up to that. Even if he does play dh or1b, being a 32 year old catcher is like being a 35 year old at any other offensive position.

Isee how crawford is a strong argument too as his gane is speed, which is one of the first top decline.

YEDN90
11-28-2010, 10:19 PM
Derek Jeter