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View Full Version : Who will reach 3000 base hits?



Jeffy25
10-26-2010, 12:12 AM
Poll coming, vote for all those that will reach 3000 base hits in YOUR OPINION. If you think this player will get a 3000th base hit in their career, and vote for them.

MannyRamirez
10-26-2010, 12:16 AM
I will.

Jeffy25
10-26-2010, 12:19 AM
I picked guys that either had the outside chance based on age, and career base hits, no one, under the age of 27 or with under 1000 career base hits was included.

MooseWithFleas
10-26-2010, 12:20 AM
Jeter, Pudge, A-Rod, Pujols

Then you have a list of possibles with Miguel Cabrera, Ichiro and D. Wright.

Looking from a homerish stand point. Rollins has an outside shot with under 1300 to go. Given his incredible defensive tools, he could hang around long enough to have a shot.

Jeffy25
10-26-2010, 12:25 AM
Jeter, Pudge, A-Rod, Pujols

Then you have a list of possibles with Miguel Cabrera, Ichiro and D. Wright.

Looking from a homerish stand point. Rollins has an outside shot with under 1300 to go. Given his incredible defensive tools, he could hang around long enough to have a shot.

Rollins reminds me of Renteria a few years ago, in terms of 3000 hits as a possibility (and actually a little bit behind). But you just never know with guys entering their 30's, they could still Barry Bonds produce, or fall off like Ralph Kiner

MooseWithFleas
10-26-2010, 12:31 AM
Yeah, a lot of it depends on how long he wants to play. We don't know at this point if he can go Omar Vizquel long, but a lot of it depends on his desire to play into his late 30's and early 40's

Rdy2PlayBall
10-26-2010, 12:32 AM
Actually, I should have voted for Omar Vizquel, I should have giving him more consideration from what I saw out of him this year. His arm is not as stong, but his range and near flawless hands could have him out-defending most of the league for at least 3 more years. 3 years of 300-ish ABs could see him easily getting 201 more hits. I don't think he will be doing that with the White Sox because they have found a great defensive rookie in Morel, but I hope another team picks up Vizquel... Especially a garbage team that can't do anything better with their time.

Lol, I propose one of the teams that isn't good is the designated team that takes older players looking to get their last swings in. :p

howiend
10-26-2010, 12:32 AM
thanks for this great thread!

MooseWithFleas
10-26-2010, 12:33 AM
Actually, I should have voted for Omar Vizquel, I should have giving him more consideration from what I saw out of him this year. His arm is not as stong, but his range and near flawless hands could have him out-defending most of the league for at least 3 more years. 3 years of 300-ish ABs could see him easily getting 201 more hits. I don't think he will be doing that with the White Sox because they have found a great defensive rookie in Morel, but I hope another team picks up Vizquel... Especially a garbage team that can't do anything better with their time.

Lol, I propose one of the teams that isn't good is the designated team that takes older players looking to get their last swings in. :p

You mean the Mariners?

Jeffy25
10-26-2010, 12:35 AM
Would anyone like to know the statistical chances of certain players reaching?

Jeters current career pace would end him with 3491, and has a 97% chance of reaching 3000.

I will post the rest, a friend just got in town from Montana for our wedding Saturday, and my fiancee just returned from the airport with her, I'll post the rest later.

Rdy2PlayBall
10-26-2010, 12:37 AM
You mean the Mariners?Haha, Griffey is an icon for them though. I don't really blame them. :laugh2:

I'm talking about a team full of Griffeys. :up:
They could catch a bunch of lightnings in a bottle.

----
Jeter at 97%? Does he even have an injury history? I can't believe it's not 99%. Who am I kidding though, 97% is still pretty high!

RTL
10-26-2010, 12:53 AM
Rollins reminds me of Renteria a few years ago, in terms of 3000 hits as a possibility (and actually a little bit behind). But you just never know with guys entering their 30's, they could still Barry Bonds produce, or fall off like Ralph Kiner

You do realize a severe back injury forced Kiner to retire in his prime don't you? Its not like he just fell off.

VenezuelanMet
10-26-2010, 01:06 AM
Ichiro, Jeter A-Rod and Pujols for sure, I think, barring collapse.

Also chose Miggy and DWright but they're still too young to say anything.

Personally, I hope that people like Abreu, Damon, Tejada and the like don't stay playing just to reach the milestone crawling.

MooseWithFleas
10-26-2010, 01:08 AM
Haha, Griffey is an icon for them though. I don't really blame them. :laugh2:

I'm talking about a team full of Griffeys. :up:
They could catch a bunch of lightnings in a bottle.

----
Jeter at 97%? Does he even have an injury history? I can't believe it's not 99%. Who am I kidding though, 97% is still pretty high!

Mike Sweeney too :p

Jeffy25
10-26-2010, 01:43 AM
Would anyone like to know the statistical chances of certain players reaching?

Jeters current career pace would end him with 3491, and has a 97% chance of reaching 3000.



You do realize a severe back injury forced Kiner to retire in his prime don't you? Its not like he just fell off.

yes, the point is that some people play well into their 30's and are effective, and others disappear for one reason or another

Bill James gives this disclaimer. (responding to the poster who said Jeter only has a 97% chance?)


Bill James invented Career Assessments as a projection method to predict final career totals for players. The formula presumes that a player has (42 - age)/2 seasons remaining, but not less than 1.5 seasons, and it is determined using the player's age on June 30 of the previous year. If the player is a catcher, his remaining seasons are multiplied by 0.7. Using the established norms and years remaining, the final total is projected, and the chance to reach that total can be derived. No player can have more than a 97-percent chance to reach any goal.

Pudge has a 68% shot of reaching 3000 base hits, he is on pace to reach 3033 career base hits.

Omar Vizquel has a 0% chance of reaching 3000 base hits, and is on pace to reach 2899 career base hits. Basically, he only has a max of one more season left. a 0% is a strong prediction, but I didn't make the rules.

Alex Rodriguez has a 97% chance of reaching 3000 career base hits (same as Jeter) and is on pace to reach 3243. Hey, I didn't make the calculator, Bill James did. But it suggests A-Rod only has 4 more productive seasons ahead of him.

Manny has a 15% chance of reaching 3000 base hits, and is on pace to reach 2850.

Damon has a 62% chance of reaching 3000 base hits. He is on pace to reach
3051.

Chipper Jones has a 4% chance of reaching 3000 base hits. He is on pace to reach 2764.

Vlad has a 41% chance of reaching 3000 base hits. He is on pace to reach 2949.

Miguel Tejada has a 27% chance of reaching 3000 base hits. He is on pace to reach 2838

Ichiro has a 36% chance of reaching 3000 base hits. He is on pace to reach 2895.

Pujols has a 51% chance of reaching 3000 base hits. He is on pace to reach 3016.

Miggy has a 37% chance of reaching 3000 base hits. On pace to reach 2795.



The chances raise the closer you get to 3000, obviously, so potential of reaching is nearly as important as actually acquiring the hits, example, Miggy vs Damon.

ccspence8
10-26-2010, 01:58 AM
I'd like to add:
Joe Mauer (1011) age 27
Hanley Ramirez (934) age 26
Adrian Gonzalez (900) age 28
Ryan Braun (711) age 26
Dustin Pedroia (667) age 26...should've been about 750 if not injured.
Matt Kemp (645) age 25
BJ Upton (633) age 25
Justin Upton (413) age 22

Jeffy25
10-26-2010, 02:07 AM
I'd like to add:
Joe Mauer (1011) age 27
Hanley Ramirez (934) age 26
Adrian Gonzalez (900) age 28
Ryan Braun (711) age 26
Dustin Pedroia (667) age 26...should've been about 750 if not injured.
Matt Kemp (645) age 25
BJ Upton (633) age 25
Justin Upton (413) age 22

I didn't add people with under 1000 career base hits because the chances of them reaching are going to be below 33% at the very best.

Mauer, being a catcher, does limit his chances. Of course, any of those guys certainly could do it, voting/betting on them would be very difficult to predict at this point, that is all.

Pinstripe pride
10-26-2010, 08:41 AM
jeter, arod, man-ram, ichiro, pujols, cano, cabrera

todu82
10-26-2010, 09:25 AM
Jeter
A-Rod
Vlad
Ichiro
Pujols
Crawford

Madtown22
10-26-2010, 09:31 AM
Manny will not make it, out of the league in two years similar to what happened to Bonds

S.P.
10-26-2010, 11:45 AM
i voted for Orlando Cabrera.

Jeffy25
10-26-2010, 03:07 PM
I am surprised by the lack of love for Damon, he is still fairly young, has one of the higher chances of reaching the 3000 mark, and is still producing very well. I wonder if he will get a multi-year deal from someone this year?

RTL
10-26-2010, 03:19 PM
Damon and multi-year deal should no longer be in the same sentence. I can see him returning to Oakland on a one year deal.

Jeffy25
10-26-2010, 03:23 PM
Damon and multi-year deal should no longer be in the same sentence. I can see him returning to Oakland on a one year deal.

several players should not get multi-year deals anymore, but they do, Pudge last season for example.

I bet Damon plays another 5 seasons though, he isn't showing signs of slowing down yet.

RTL
10-26-2010, 03:35 PM
He isn't? His OPS dropped 100 points and if you saw him play you can definitely tell he is slowing down. He's basically a part time DH/OF at this point which is why I think the A's should be interested. Damon's still got some gas in the tank but no way should he be getting more than one year guaranteed.

Don't use the Nationals bringing a future HOFer for name recognition as an example again;)

tbone2171
10-26-2010, 03:39 PM
Jeter, Pudge, A-Rod, Pujols

Then you have a list of possibles with Miguel Cabrera, Ichiro and D. Wright.

Looking from a homerish stand point. Rollins has an outside shot with under 1300 to go. Given his incredible defensive tools, he could hang around long enough to have a shot.

I hate to rain on your parade, but Jimmy Rollins sucks.

tbone2171
10-26-2010, 03:50 PM
I'd like to add:
Joe Mauer (1011) age 27
Hanley Ramirez (934) age 26
Adrian Gonzalez (900) age 28
Ryan Braun (711) age 26
Dustin Pedroia (667) age 26...should've been about 750 if not injured.
Matt Kemp (645) age 25
BJ Upton (633) age 25
Justin Upton (413) age 22

:laugh: Some people amaze me!!

Kinsm
10-26-2010, 07:32 PM
I am surprised by the lack of love for Damon, he is still fairly young, has one of the higher chances of reaching the 3000 mark, and is still producing very well. I wonder if he will get a multi-year deal from someone this year?

At the end of next season his odds will be close to 0%. He is nothing more than a 4th outfielder/part-time DH now.

No one will offer him a multi year deal.

Uncle Sam
10-26-2010, 08:48 PM
I accidentally vote for Rios ):

hoggin88
10-26-2010, 09:18 PM
:laugh: Some people amaze me!!

:laugh2:

Sorry ccspence, but it was pretty desperate.

catman
10-26-2010, 09:19 PM
I definitely see Ichiro and Jeter getting to the milestone, and very possibly Pujols, but its a bit early to predict some of the other guys on the list.

1903
10-26-2010, 09:41 PM
I definitely see Ichiro and Jeter getting to the milestone, and very possibly Pujols, but its a bit early to predict some of the other guys on the list.

Ichiro and Pujols but not A-Rod? He most likely hits 3000 within the next 2-3 seasons.

eXpLiiCt
10-26-2010, 10:09 PM
.. Well OBV people will vote for Jeter...

Jeffy25
10-26-2010, 10:29 PM
I don't personally think Damon will get there, note my vote.

But surprised by the lack of love, that is all.

catman
10-26-2010, 10:36 PM
Ichiro and Pujols but not A-Rod? He most likely hits 3000 within the next 2-3 seasons.
I wouldn't be surprised to see A'Rod break down and not play for more than another couple of seasons. Frankly, I couldn't care less about his chances of making it to 3000 hits. He cheated the game out of a lot of money and other players out of a lot of playing time.

Jeffy25
10-26-2010, 10:38 PM
I wouldn't be surprised to see A'Rod break down and not play for more than another couple of seasons. Frankly, I couldn't care less about his chances of making it to 3000 hits. He cheated the game out of a lot of money and other players out of a lot of playing time.

to be fair, he was on his way to being a top 5 all time shortstop well before the PED conversation even came close to happening.

ATL#22
10-26-2010, 11:13 PM
Hmmm.. Must of missed it. I didn't see David Eckstein or Cody Ross

giants73756
10-26-2010, 11:40 PM
to be fair, he was on his way to being a top 5 all time shortstop well before the PED conversation even came close to happening.

:confused: As far as we know he always took steroids. He's always been huge.

1903
10-27-2010, 12:14 AM
I wouldn't be surprised to see A'Rod break down and not play for more than another couple of seasons. Frankly, I couldn't care less about his chances of making it to 3000 hits. He cheated the game out of a lot of money and other players out of a lot of playing time.

:facepalm: A-Rod has missed 87 games over the past 3 seasons and has 422 hits in that span. He needs less than 350 to get 3000. The guy is a lock to get it. 30 HR, 125 RBI and he is going to be gone in a couple of seasons :laugh2:

Jeffy25
10-27-2010, 02:48 PM
:confused: As far as we know he always took steroids. He's always been huge.

what? Go back and look at what he looked like in 1993.

and based on what a persons body size isn't a very good way to judge if they were on PED's or not. He admitted to the span of 01-03, it very easily could have been longer, but we don't know that, and A-Rod was on a ridiculous pace, until he went to New York to become a third basemen.

As said in other PED threads, people should really read up on what steroids do to a ballplayer before making blanket accusations and taking away a players credentials.

giants73756
10-27-2010, 06:44 PM
what? Go back and look at what he looked like in 1993.

and based on what a persons body size isn't a very good way to judge if they were on PED's or not. He admitted to the span of 01-03, it very easily could have been longer, but we don't know that, and A-Rod was on a ridiculous pace, until he went to New York to become a third basemen.

As said in other PED threads, people should really read up on what steroids do to a ballplayer before making blanket accusations and taking away a players credentials.

He wasn't playing in '93. He hit 36 home runs in his first major league season, as a 21 year old in 1996.

Players who are caught taking steroids always lie about the amount of time they take them.

Pujolsfan91
10-27-2010, 06:49 PM
I voted
Jeter
Pudge (will be close)
A-Rod
Ichirio
Albert
Miggy

hype707
10-27-2010, 06:53 PM
Jeter

el_primo_nano
10-27-2010, 06:55 PM
I pretty much voted in all the right guys. Jetes, A-Rod, Ichiro, Cano, Pujols and Miggy

DocJayzSpikx
10-27-2010, 06:58 PM
Hope Pujols does

1903
10-27-2010, 06:59 PM
For some reason I always thought Chipper had over 2,500 hits.

ShinobiNYC
10-27-2010, 09:45 PM
He wasn't playing in '93. He hit 36 home runs in his first major league season, as a 21 year old in 1996.

Players who are caught taking steroids always lie about the amount of time they take them.

Yeah he took it all his career unlike Bonds :rolleyes:

giants73756
10-28-2010, 01:00 PM
Yeah he took it all his career unlike Bonds :rolleyes:

Ok? Did I say anything about Bonds? But since you bring him up, you're right. Bonds was a small guy when he came up and had good power. Throughout his career he got a lot bigger and started hitting a ton more home runs. This would cause one to believe he wasn't using steroids his whole career.

On the other hand, A-Roid has always been the same size and has always been putting up monster power numbers since he began playing in the league. What reason is there to believe he hasn't been taking steroids throughout his entire career?

Jeffy25
11-02-2010, 03:22 PM
Omar Vizquel signs a new one year deal, if he can get another 95 base hits, he would only be one more season away....it is possible

ABOMB_56
11-02-2010, 03:50 PM
Jeter
Pudge
A-Rod
Man-Ram
Ichiro
Pujols
and my homer pick:
Cano

joeym
11-02-2010, 03:51 PM
several players should not get multi-year deals anymore, but they do, Pudge last season for example.

I bet Damon plays another 5 seasons though, he isn't showing signs of slowing down yet.

I didn't realize Damon was that close to 3000 hits....I guess he
has been playing a lot longer than I thought....

Gary Reasons
11-04-2010, 12:52 PM
lots more people voted for Cano than i thought they would.

Ty Fast
11-04-2010, 03:07 PM
jason heyward

Don of NY23
11-07-2010, 11:46 PM
lots more people voted for Cano than i thought they would.

Cano is a legit 3000 hit club canidate he's only 28 and has reached 200 hits the last 2 years I don't see why his production would slow down, it's a tough thing to predict 12 years from now but if he keeps this trend up I don't see why he wouldn't have 2500-2600 hits at age 35 it's diffinetly possible....that said homer homer homer!

Jeffy25
11-08-2010, 03:05 PM
Even though it's just a game, in my ootp sims, starting with 2010, Jeter always gets number 3000 in 2011, A-Rod in 2012 gets number 3000, homer 700, 2000 RBI's and Runs scored (usually).

And Jason Heyward for some reason, almost always reached 400 plus homers and 2500 base hits.

I have seen Cano get to 3000 base hits, as well Pujos. But the rest I don't see as often.

Again, that is only a baseball simulator

NateyB24
11-09-2010, 11:25 PM
I hope Ichiro does but hes getting up there in age but he seems to put up the same production he has for so long its hard to see him slowing down.

Raiderwood
11-10-2010, 02:26 PM
I forgot Robby Cano.... Damon is going to be borderline due to his age