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View Full Version : HCA/W-L vs SRS/EFF aka The Thread JB FEARS



Chronz
10-20-2010, 10:24 PM
I cant tell you how many times Ive told JB to stop pointing at HCA or Superior Win-Loss records as an indicator of talent or predicator of team success. While SRS isnt perfect it is far and away the best single measurement we have for measuring a teams level of play. Personally my preferred method of choice includes a similar stance to SRS only limited to the teams most frequently used lineups (In the playoffs these are the only lineups used) along with a few subjective modifiers (health/performance vs good teams/playoff rep etc..). Unfortunately we only have that data for teams of recent memory so SRS/HCA will be the main prognosticator here.

I found it hilarious that one of the very first playoff series ever in 1947 between the Philly Warriors and St.Louis Bombers was also the first to prove that superior records are meaningless compared to superior efficiency differentials as the lower seeded Warriors "upset" the Bombers. In actuality however the Warriors sported the superior SRS, the overall efficiency marks and should have been favored. This happens so often that I never found it necessary to create this thread, still its an argument that needs to be filtered out of our consciousness, hopefully this will put it to rest for good.

Keep in mind this isnt meant to bash JB, I have nothing but respect for the man, hes a guy who can take everything you dish and not let it effect your relationship personally, hes always been a cool guy regardless of how much I disagree with him.


The following is a list of EVERY series where HCA/W-L Records and SRS/EFF disagreed on who to favor and who won out, as you will see this is a one sided argument. BOLD = When HCA/WIN-LOSS% actually won out

5/9

PRE-60'S ERA


1947
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Philly vs St.Louis PHILLY

1950
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Lakers vs Nationals Lakers

1951
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Nationals vs Knicks Knicks

1951
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Knicks vs Celtics Knicks Win

1952
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Lakers vs Royals Lakers

1954
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Lakers vs Nationals Nationals

1957
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Warriors vs Nationals Nationals

1959
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Pistons vs Lakers Lakers

1959
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Nationals vs Knicks Nationals


5/6

The 60's


1961
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Nationals vs Warriors Nationals

1966
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Hawks vs Bullets Hawks

1968
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Lakers vs Celtics Celtics

1969
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Knicks vs Bullets Knicks

1969
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Celtics vs 76'ers Celtics

1969
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Celtics vs Lakers Celtics


8/16

The 70's

1970
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Lakers vs Hawks Lakers

1974
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Bulls vs Pistons Pistons

1976
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Bucks vs Pistons Bucks

1976
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Suns vs Sonics Suns

1976
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Cavs vs Celtics Celtics

1977
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Cavs vs Bullets Bullets

1977
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Blazers vs Nuggets Blazers

1977
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Warriors vs Lakers Lakers

1977
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Blazers vs Lakers Blazers

1977
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Blazers vs 76'ers Blazers

1978
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Lakers vs Sonics Sonics

1978
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Sonics vs Nuggets Sonics

1979
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Hawks vs Rockets Hawks

1979
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Lakers vs Sonics Lakers

1979
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Suns vs Sonics Sonics

1979
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Spurs vs Wizards Wizards


6/8

The 80's


1981
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Bulls vs Knicks Bulls

1982
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Bullets vs Nets Bullets

1984
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Knicks vs Pistons Knicks

1985
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Blazers vs Mavs Blazers

1985
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Lakers vs Celtics Lakers

1988
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Mavs vs Nuggets Mavs

1988
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Pistons vs Lakers Lakers

1989
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Lakers vs Pistons Pistons





The 90's

7/16

1990
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Suns vs Jazz Suns

1990
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Suns vs Lakers Suns

1990
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
76'ers vs Bulls Bulls

1990
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Suns vs Blazers Blazers

1993
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Cavs vs Bulls Bulls

1993
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Sonics vs Suns Suns

1993
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Bulls vs Knicks Bulls

1994
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Knicks vs Bulls Bulls

1994
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Suns vs Rockets Rockets

1994
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Knicks vs Rockets Rockets

1995
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Bulls vs Hornets Bulls

1997
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Jazz vs Spurs Jazz

1998
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Hornets vs Hawks Hawks

1998
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Lakers vs Jazz Jazz

1999
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Pistons vs Hawks Hawks

1999
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Blazers vs Jazz Blazers


10/16

The 2000's


2001
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Blazers vs Lakers Lakers

2001
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Kings vs Lakers Lakers

2002
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Magic vs Hornets Hornets

2002
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Celtics vs Pistons Celtics

2003
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Lakers vs Twolves Lakers

2003
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Nets vs Pistons Nets

2004
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Pistons vs Pacers Pistons

2004
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Pistons vs Lakers Pistons

2005
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Pacers vs Celtics Pacers

2005
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Spurs vs Suns Spurs

2007
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Spurs vs Suns Spurs

2007
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Bulls vs Pistons Pistons

2008
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Jazz vs Rockets Jazz

2008
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Suns vs Spurs Spurs

2010
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Spurs vs Mavs Spurs

2010
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Spurs vs Suns Suns



17/28
Teams with Identical Records

1954
Celtics vs Nationals = SRS Prevails
1955
Nationals vs Pistons = SRS Fails
1956
Lakers vs Hawks = SRS Fails
1957
Lakers vs Pistons = SRS Prevails
1957
Lakers vs Hawks = SRS Prevails
1958
Royals vs Pistons = SRS Fails
1975
Celtics vs Bullets = SRS Prevails
1976
Braves vs 76'ers = SRS Prevails
1977
Spurs vs Celtics = SRS Fails
1978
Cavs vs Knicks = SRS Fails
1979
Lakers vs Nuggets = SRS Prevails
1980
Rockets vs Spurs = SRS Prevails
1981
Kings vs Rockets = SRS Prevails
1981
Celtics vs 76'ers = SRS Fails
1982
Suns vs Nuggets = SRS Prevails
1990
Blazers vs Pistons = SRS Fails
1993
Rockets vs Sonics = SRS Prevails
1996
Knicks vs Cavs = SRS Fails
1998
Spurs vs Suns = SRS Fails
1998
Lakers vs Sonics = SRS Prevails
1998
Jazz vs Bulls = SRS Prevails
1999
Lakers vs Rockets = SRS Prevails
2000
76'ers vs Hornets = SRS Fails
2001
Mavs vs Jazz = SRS Fails
2002
Lakers vs Spurs = SRS Prevails
2003
Spurs vs Mavs = SRS Fails
2008
Spurs vs Hornets = SRS Fails
2010
Jazz vs Nuggets = SRS Prevails




Summary
Out of 99 Playoff Series the team with the higher SRS won 58 times, considering HCA is suppose to be a heavy advantage this is a drastic figure. And we're not done yet, part2 of this installment will be to contextualize those scores by recognizing player availability and any other factors you guys feel will skew the results in one way or another. For example Ive excluded the Spurs vs Suns series of 2000 because Duncan was unavailable, to prevent bias this was the only series I excluded. Looking at the results however I found many such instances.

So what say you, if you were going to Vegas what system would you trust?

ChiSox219
10-21-2010, 12:54 AM
Good stuff

I noticed that the odds-makers tend to give a lot of weight to HCA, especially in the playoffs.

JordansBulls
10-21-2010, 01:12 AM
I cant tell you how many times Ive told JB to stop pointing at HCA or Superior Win-Loss records as an indicator of talent or predicator of team success. While SRS isnt perfect it is far and away the best single measurement we have for measuring a teams level of play. Personally my preferred method of choice includes a similar stance to SRS only limited to the teams most frequently used lineups (In the playoffs these are the only lineups used) along with a few subjective modifiers (health/performance vs good teams/playoff rep etc..). Unfortunately we only have that data for teams of recent memory so SRS/HCA will be the main prognosticator here.

I found it hilarious that one of the very first playoff series ever in 1947 between the Philly Warriors and St.Louis Bombers was also the first to prove that superior records are meaningless compared to superior efficiency differentials as the lower seeded Warriors "upset" the Bombers. In actuality however the Warriors sported the superior SRS, the overall efficiency marks and should have been favored. This happens so often that I never found it necessary to create this thread, still its an argument that needs to be filtered out of our consciousness, hopefully this will put it to rest for good.

Keep in mind this isnt meant to bash JB, I have nothing but respect for the man, hes a guy who can take everything you dish and not let it effect your relationship personally, hes always been a cool guy regardless of how much I disagree with him.


The following is a list of EVERY series where HCA/W-L Records and SRS/EFF disagreed on who to favor and who won out, as you will see this is a one sided argument. BOLD = When HCA/WIN-LOSS% actually won out

5/9

PRE-60'S ERA


1947
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Philly vs St.Louis PHILLY

1950
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Lakers vs Nationals Lakers

1951
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Nationals vs Knicks Knicks

1951
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Knicks vs Celtics Knicks Win

1952
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Lakers vs Royals Lakers

1954
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Lakers vs Nationals Nationals

1957
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Warriors vs Nationals Nationals

1959
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Pistons vs Lakers Lakers

1959
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Nationals vs Knicks Nationals


5/6

The 60's


1961
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Nationals vs Warriors Nationals

1966
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Hawks vs Bullets Hawks

1968
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Lakers vs Celtics Celtics

1969
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Knicks vs Bullets Knicks

1969
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Celtics vs 76'ers Celtics

1969
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Celtics vs Lakers Celtics


8/16

The 70's

1970
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Lakers vs Hawks Lakers

1974
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Bulls vs Pistons Pistons

1976
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Bucks vs Pistons Bucks

1976
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Suns vs Sonics Suns

1976
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Cavs vs Celtics Celtics

1977
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Cavs vs Bullets Bullets

1977
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Blazers vs Nuggets Blazers

1977
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Warriors vs Lakers Lakers

1977
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Blazers vs Lakers Blazers

1977
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Blazers vs 76'ers Blazers

1978
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Lakers vs Sonics Sonics

1978
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Sonics vs Nuggets Sonics

1979
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Hawks vs Rockets Hawks

1979
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Lakers vs Sonics Lakers

1979
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Suns vs Sonics Sonics

1979
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Spurs vs Wizards Wizards


6/8

The 80's


1981
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Bulls vs Knicks Bulls

1982
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Bullets vs Nets Bullets

1984
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Knicks vs Pistons Knicks

1985
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Blazers vs Mavs Blazers

1985
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Lakers vs Celtics Lakers

1988
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Mavs vs Nuggets Mavs

1988
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Pistons vs Lakers Lakers

1989
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Lakers vs Pistons Pistons





The 90's

7/16

1990
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Suns vs Jazz Suns

1990
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Suns vs Lakers Suns

1990
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
76'ers vs Bulls Bulls

1990
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Suns vs Blazers Blazers

1993
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Cavs vs Bulls Bulls

1993
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Sonics vs Suns Suns

1993
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Bulls vs Knicks Bulls

1994
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Knicks vs Bulls Bulls

1994
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Suns vs Rockets Rockets

1994
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Knicks vs Rockets Rockets

1995
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Bulls vs Hornets Bulls

1997
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Jazz vs Spurs Jazz

1998
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Hornets vs Hawks Hawks

1998
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Lakers vs Jazz Jazz

1999
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Pistons vs Hawks Hawks

1999
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Blazers vs Jazz Blazers


10/16

The 2000's


2001
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Blazers vs Lakers Lakers

2001
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Kings vs Lakers Lakers

2002
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Magic vs Hornets Hornets

2002
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Celtics vs Pistons Celtics

2003
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Lakers vs Twolves Lakers

2003
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Nets vs Pistons Nets

2004
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Pistons vs Pacers Pistons

2004
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Pistons vs Lakers Pistons

2005
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Pacers vs Celtics Pacers

2005
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Spurs vs Suns Spurs

2007
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Spurs vs Suns Spurs

2007
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Bulls vs Pistons Pistons

2008
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Jazz vs Rockets Jazz

2008
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Suns vs Spurs Spurs

2010
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Spurs vs Mavs Spurs

2010
(SRS) (W-L) RESULT
Spurs vs Suns Suns



17/28
Teams with Identical Records

1954
Celtics vs Nationals = SRS Prevails
1955
Nationals vs Pistons = SRS Fails
1956
Lakers vs Hawks = SRS Fails
1957
Lakers vs Pistons = SRS Prevails
1957
Lakers vs Hawks = SRS Prevails
1958
Royals vs Pistons = SRS Fails
1975
Celtics vs Bullets = SRS Prevails
1976
Braves vs 76'ers = SRS Prevails
1977
Spurs vs Celtics = SRS Fails
1978
Cavs vs Knicks = SRS Fails
1979
Lakers vs Nuggets = SRS Prevails
1980
Rockets vs Spurs = SRS Prevails
1981
Kings vs Rockets = SRS Prevails
1981
Celtics vs 76'ers = SRS Fails
1982
Suns vs Nuggets = SRS Prevails
1990
Blazers vs Pistons = SRS Fails
1993
Rockets vs Sonics = SRS Prevails
1996
Knicks vs Cavs = SRS Fails
1998
Spurs vs Suns = SRS Fails
1998
Lakers vs Sonics = SRS Prevails
1998
Jazz vs Bulls = SRS Prevails
1999
Lakers vs Rockets = SRS Prevails
2000
76'ers vs Hornets = SRS Fails
2001
Mavs vs Jazz = SRS Fails
2002
Lakers vs Spurs = SRS Prevails
2003
Spurs vs Mavs = SRS Fails
2008
Spurs vs Hornets = SRS Fails
2010
Jazz vs Nuggets = SRS Prevails




Summary
Out of 99 Playoff Series the team with the higher SRS won 58 times, considering HCA is suppose to be a heavy advantage this is a drastic figure. And we're not done yet, part2 of this installment will be to contextualize those scores by recognizing player availability and any other factors you guys feel will skew the results in one way or another. For example Ive excluded the Spurs vs Suns series of 2000 because Duncan was unavailable, to prevent bias this was the only series I excluded. Looking at the results however I found many such instances.

So what say you, if you were going to Vegas what system would you trust?


Good stuff here.

But what I want to know is how is the team with the higher SRS that won 58 out of 99 series better than the team that had HCA out of those 99 series? I would bet the team with HCA wins 75-85% of the time.

Chronz
10-21-2010, 02:47 PM
Good stuff here.

But what I want to know is how is the team with the higher SRS that won 58 out of 99 series better than the team that had HCA out of those 99 series? I would bet the team with HCA wins 75-85% of the time.
Let it go JB, if the team with higher SRS won 58 times then it means the team with HCA lost 58 times out of 99, meaning they won 41 games good for a .41 winning%.

daleja424
10-24-2010, 12:31 AM
Interesting. I am unfamiliar with SRS though. I mean, I know what it stands for, but where do you find SRS data?

Chronz
10-24-2010, 08:32 PM
Interesting. I am unfamiliar with SRS though. I mean, I know what it stands for, but where do you find SRS data?
Do you mean how its calculated or where you can find the results? The results are posted on BBR in their league/team profiles.

For an explanation on how the system works its here
http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=39

daleja424
10-24-2010, 08:35 PM
sweet Chronz. thanks a ton.

JordansBulls
03-27-2011, 01:11 PM
This year,

Bulls

SRS: 6.75 (2nd of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.3 (23rd of 30)
Expected W-L: 54-18 (1st of 30)

Miami
SRS: 6.81 (1st of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.0 (20th of 30)
Expected W-L: 53-19 (2nd of 30)

KnicksorBust
05-23-2011, 11:22 AM
Teams that advanced despite having inferior SRS ratings:

Hawks
Thunder
Grizzlies
Mavericks

Chronz
05-23-2011, 04:36 PM
Teams that advanced despite having inferior SRS ratings:

Hawks
Thunder
Grizzlies
Mavericks

All but the Thunder had inferior win-loss records as well, but yes this has truly been the year for the under dog, atleast in the West.

ManRam
05-27-2011, 07:56 PM
Great work Chronz :worthy:

LakersIn5
07-02-2011, 02:08 AM
:clap:

JordansBulls
07-02-2011, 08:30 AM
This needs to be updated because the Mavs beat both the Lakers and Heat with a lower Defensive and Offensive Rating and lower SRS rating.

JordansBulls
06-10-2012, 08:58 AM
Hey Chronz where is part 2 of this?

Chronz
06-12-2012, 12:49 PM
Good question JB