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PatsSoxKnicks
10-20-2010, 04:33 PM
I thought of a way of looking at the production vs. salary (or technically wins per salary). I'm not sure if its necessarily a good method (seems kind of simple and not that accurate) but I'll post what I did anyways. I know in baseball, fangraphs keeps track of WAR $ but I haven't really seen anyone keep track of production vs. salary in the NBA. Maybe there is a stat like WAR $ that I'm just missing.

It's from another thread where a comparison between Amare and Boozer came up. Let me know your thoughts.



http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=stoudam01&y1=2010&p2=boozeca01&y2=2010

Actually, if we take their career WS/48 mins (.184 for Amare, .160 for Boozer), multiply by 1,000,000 (its just a coefficient, to make the numbers easier to read). Then we calculate WS/48 / (salary/82), we're getting their production per salary for 2010 based off career numbers.


salary salary/82 WS/48 WS/48 * 1000000 (WS/48 * 1000000) / (salary/82)
Amare 16486611 201056.2 0.184 184000 0.915167
Boozer 14400000 175609.8 0.160 160000 0.911111


Amare is slightly better.

We can also calculate the WS/48 per salary for an average player based on the fact that the average player makes 5.765 million (mid level exception) and the fact that the WS/48 for an average player is .100

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html


salary salary/82 WS/48 WS/48 * 1000000 (WS/48 * 1000000) / (salary/82)
average player 5765000 70304.9 0.100 100000 0.703049


Joe Johnson's production (over the last 3 years) per salary:


Joe Johnson 16324500 199079.2683 0.118 118000 0.592729


Or perhaps I should be looking at this as salary per production. For example, the league average player makes 703,049 per WS/48 for 1 game.

Edit:

Anyways, what I'm trying to get at is that it would be nice to have some sort of baseline as to what player X should be paid. We always hear so and so is overpaid but how do we really know unless we're looking at it from a statistical POV. I guess thats what I'm trying to do here.

KnicksorBust
10-23-2010, 08:12 PM
Just making sure I'm looking at those numbers properly:

Average Player - $703,049 per win share/48
Amar'e Stoudemire - $184,000 per win share/48

So he's getting almost 4x the production of the average player when compared to his salary?

Love to see some examples of the OPPOSITE trend.

BTW: Great topic and idea for statistical research. I'm sure Dork Elvis and all the other stat owners/GMs are all over this in some way. I'm surprised no one else has commented.

daleja424
10-24-2010, 12:03 AM
This is what I was trying to get at in a thread I posted a couple weeks back....but I hadnt run any numbers...

Imagine what they are going to say for a guy like Lebron...

anyways,
why are you using win shares/48 instead of total win shares though. Total winshares seems to make more sense than an adjusted stat here b/c it accounts for things like games missed, stamina of a player, etc. IT TELLS YOU WHAT YOU ACTUALLY GET FOR THE MONEY. For instance, if Greg Oden has a great winshares/48 your stat would say he is worth his money..... but in reality...if he only plays 87 minutes in n entire season he clearly isnt worth that money...

ChiSox219
10-24-2010, 12:07 AM
This is what I was trying to get at in a thread I posted a couple weeks back....but I hadnt run any numbers...

Imagine what they are going to say for a guy like Lebron...

anyways,
why are you using win shares/48 instead of total win shares though. Total winshares seems to make more sense than an adjusted stat here b/c it accounts for things like games missed, stamina of a player, etc. IT TELLS YOU WHAT YOU ACTUALLY GET FOR THE MONEY. For instance, if Greg Oden has a great winshares/48 your stat would say he is worth his money..... but in reality...if he only plays 87 minutes in n entire season he clearly isnt worth that money...

Lebron's Production was worth $54.6 million and his True Value was worth $47 million.

Be surprised if he does much more than half that this year.

daleja424
10-24-2010, 12:10 AM
example: Greg Oden last year, winshares/48= 0.214, salary $5,361,240 (per game= $65,381)

so that is (0.214)(1000000)/(65381)= 3.27 winshares per million dollars

which is over 3 times larger than Amare's numbers...

then you look at his stats and see that he only played in 21 game last year... whomp whomp

daleja424
10-24-2010, 12:13 AM
thus it would make more sense to just evaluate winshares/million dollars...

it makes more sense (IMO) AND is less math...

with my example:

Greg Oden (2.2WS)/(5.36mil)= 0.4 wins per million dollars

vs

Stat (10.7 WS)/(16.49mil)= 0.65 wins per million dollars

thus Stat shows to have "earned" his money more than Oden


I think you overthought yourself on this one...

PatsSoxKnicks
10-24-2010, 12:23 AM
^Wow, yeah I didn't even realize that. Your right. I def overthought this one.

And the math is certainly easier too.


Lebron's Production was worth $54.6 million and his True Value was worth $47 million.

Be surprised if he does much more than half that this year.

Where did you get those numbers?

daleja424
10-24-2010, 12:27 AM
:)

ChiSox219
10-24-2010, 12:36 AM
^Wow, yeah I didn't even realize that. Your right. I def overthought this one.

And the math is certainly easier too.



Where did you get those numbers?

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=t8NXHdI03bgKIuBE5rgmp2A&authkey=CO3npsgP&hl=en#gid=0

PatsSoxKnicks
10-24-2010, 12:36 AM
Lebron: 18.5 win shares / 14.5 mil = 1.28 wins per million dollars. Although, this is based on this years salary. Does anyone know a site that keeps track of salaries for previous years? I've been using hoopdata but that only has salary data going forward.

BTW, I like this idea. It's a lot easier to calculate and does make sense. I think I just overthought myself earlier.

daleja424
10-24-2010, 12:37 AM
Boozer= (9.9WS)/(14.4mil)= 0.6875

vs

Amare= (10.7WS)/(16.5mil)= 0.6485

using this method... Boozer comes out slightly ahead in terms of how much he effects your win total compared to how much he gets paid. The extrea 0.8 win shares that Amare got you cost 2.1 million. So that last winshare cost nearly twice its value in this comparison (0.8/2.1= 0.38)

daleja424
10-24-2010, 12:39 AM
Lebron: 18.5 win shares / 14.5 mil = 1.28 wins per million dollars. Although, this is based on this years salary. Does anyone know a site that keeps track of salaries for previous years? I've been using hoopdata but that only has salary data going forward.

BTW, I like this idea. It's a lot easier to calculate and does make sense. I think I just overthought myself earlier.


http://www.scribd.com/doc/20543989/NBA-Team-Salaries-2009-2010

that has most of them... seems to be missing some teams though...

daleja424
10-24-2010, 12:39 AM
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=t8NXHdI03bgKIuBE5rgmp2A&authkey=CO3npsgP&hl=en#gid=0

great link... how is true value calculated... do you know?

PatsSoxKnicks
10-24-2010, 12:42 AM
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=t8NXHdI03bgKIuBE5rgmp2A&authkey=CO3npsgP&hl=en#gid=0

Thanks!

Did you get this from the APBR forum? I would like to see an explanation for what he did

daleja424
10-24-2010, 12:45 AM
whats APBR?

PatsSoxKnicks
10-24-2010, 12:47 AM
http://www.scribd.com/doc/20543989/NBA-Team-Salaries-2009-2010

that has most of them... seems to be missing some teams though...

Thanks

PatsSoxKnicks
10-24-2010, 12:48 AM
whats APBR?

APBR short for APBRmetrics, the basketball version of sabermetrics.

http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewforum.php?f=1&sid=9d57a89fd48e6102cdd4363329e28ed0

daleja424
10-24-2010, 12:50 AM
gotcha... ya... I love stats...but I am def new to using them so I am unfamiliar with a lot. I am good with numbers and math though...

PatsSoxKnicks
10-24-2010, 12:55 AM
gotcha... ya... I love stats...but I am def new to using them so I am unfamiliar with a lot. I am good with numbers and math though...

Yeah, the stuff in that forum is pretty hardcore. A lot of those guys have PHDs. Hollinger, Tom Haberstroh, etc. post on that board too.