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jaysfan4ever
10-17-2010, 08:48 PM
Apparently, the Royals have him on the market, via Buster Olney of ESPN. IMO, he's exactly the kind of pitcher we need to replace Halladay, as we need a true #1 to build a solid rotation in the East. You need someone established to be the staff ace, or there will be too much pressure on the young guys. Now, I'm not saying that Romero or Drabek couldn't become a #1, but there is a solid chance that they don't. The asking price seems to be 2 elite prospects, but hey, why not? I'd give up Drabek + Snider for Greinke.

Imagine a rotation of Greinke, Romero, Marcum, Morrow, Cecil. AA's gotta be on this.


The Royals have Zack Greinke on their hands who in 5 days will be 27 years old. Greinke already sports CY Young hardware over his fire place in his short career. The Royals as an organization have one of the deeper minor leagues in all of baseball, but their top prospects are at least two years away from helping. The issues that is created is Grienke will become a free agent after the 2012 season as he also has two years $27mm left on his contract.
According to Buster Olney of ESPN, the Royals are prepared to listen to “any and all” offers for Greinke. If the Royals did infact trade Greinke this offseason, they would be able to score a kings ransom as the other team would get two full seasons of Greinke and then if they were not able to resign him, they could offer him arbitration and recover a prospect.
But the Royals could also hold onto Greinke until the trade deadline or even next offseason as they will wait for the deal that blows them away. There is a possibility that Greinke does not get traded at all and resigns with Kansas City as he likes the direction the team is moving.
This past trade deadline, the Royals floated Greinke’s name and put the price for him at two major league ready pitchers with top of the rotation potential.
http://blog.prorumors.com/2010/10/rumors/royals-are-prepared-to-listen-to-offers-for-zack-greinke/

Nofear
10-17-2010, 09:14 PM
When we finally get some prospects stockpiled, everyone wants to make a deal that would rape everything we've built up.

Try Drabek, Snider and Cecil as starting point with probably alot more needed not the weak trade idea you threw out. The article says a "kings ransom" and Drabek-Snider isn't a kings ransom for two full years of an elite pitcher.

Pass on this idea and all others that would decimate the system that AA has worked so hard to restock.

Blind Melon
10-17-2010, 09:24 PM
^what he said

nstojic
10-17-2010, 09:25 PM
i'd part with almost anything but drabek and snider...especially in the same deal... and it's not cause i've falline 'in love' because they're our prospects.. i just want to watch them evolve as jays... we're beginning to transition to a new generation of jays baseball and i remember what it was like to watch roy come up, fail, and return and never look back... something special about that road... not saying they're the caliber of player akin to halladay but we don't know what they can or can't be, unless we let them try..

StealingSigns
10-17-2010, 09:33 PM
Pass. Greinke is a piece you add when you have been to the playoffs, and are trying to put yourself over the top to win the WS.

nithanyo
10-17-2010, 10:35 PM
Two major league ready starters with front end stuff is what they want so Why not trade Drabek and Marcum. A rotation of

Grienke
Romero
Morrow
Cecil
Jennings/Rzep/Litsch/Prospect

That could be best in baseball. And im not really sold on Drabek yet.

If i were to tell you that by trading Halladay and Marcum we got Grienke and Gose would you not be stoked??? Plus Greinke has 2 years plus arbitration. He could be the ace to replace doc. I dont see an Ace pitcher in anyone in our system or rotation. They are all good, yes but not even Romero is close to being an ace

when i say ace.... im talkin a pitcher who will give u 7+ innings every single time with 2 or less runs every single time. Greinke is capable of doing that

2009mvp
10-17-2010, 11:00 PM
Two major league ready starters with front end stuff is what they want so Why not trade Drabek and Marcum. A rotation of

Grienke
Romero
Morrow
Cecil
Jennings/Rzep/Litsch/Prospect

That could be best in baseball. And im not really sold on Drabek yet.

If i were to tell you that by trading Halladay and Marcum we got Grienke and Gose would you not be stoked??? Plus Greinke has 2 years plus arbitration. He could be the ace to replace doc. I dont see an Ace pitcher in anyone in our system or rotation. They are all good, yes but not even Romero is close to being an ace

when i say ace.... im talkin a pitcher who will give u 7+ innings every single time with 2 or less runs every single time. Greinke is capable of doing that

If he had two years plus arbitration the Royals wouldn't be open to trading him. His arb years were bought out, he's a FA after 2012.

saskjaysfan
10-17-2010, 11:09 PM
Forget about getting big ticket players! The best trades that AA can make are ones like the Morrow, and Escobar trades where we received good players with star potential for Gonzalez, League, and a few prospects.

Gibby
10-18-2010, 12:38 AM
Two major league ready starters with front end stuff is what they want so Why not trade Drabek and Marcum. A rotation of

Grienke
Romero
Morrow
Cecil
Jennings/Rzep/Litsch/Prospect

That could be best in baseball. And im not really sold on Drabek yet.

If i were to tell you that by trading Halladay and Marcum we got Grienke and Gose would you not be stoked??? Plus Greinke has 2 years plus arbitration. He could be the ace to replace doc. I dont see an Ace pitcher in anyone in our system or rotation. They are all good, yes but not even Romero is close to being an ace

when i say ace.... im talkin a pitcher who will give u 7+ innings every single time with 2 or less runs every single time. Greinke is capable of doing that

Halladay + Marcum > Grienke + Gose

The point of trading halladay was to start stock piling prospects. so why are we changing that after 1 year?

DiPasquale7
10-18-2010, 01:11 AM
Sign Yu Darvish instead. He'd cost the same as a Greinke extension but we can keep our prospects. The difference is he isn't proven in the MLB.

Personally I'd prefer to have Darvish, Snider, and Drabek than Greinke (Greinke would likely cost Snider and Drabek and we wouldnt sign Darvish)

Gibby
10-18-2010, 01:27 AM
Sign Yu Darvish instead. He'd cost the same as a Greinke extension but we can keep our prospects. The difference is he isn't proven in the MLB.

Personally I'd prefer to have Darvish, Snider, and Drabek than Greinke (Greinke would likely cost Snider and Drabek and we wouldnt sign Darvish)

Darvish would be risky but as you said we can keep our prospects. Also Darvish would most likely sign atleast a 5 year deal but Greinke only has 2 years left.

BlueJayFanDan
10-18-2010, 01:33 AM
If we could get Greinke giving up pieces like Chad Jenkins, AJ Jimenez, and another prospect or two without moving Drabek or Snider I would probably do it. If Drabek or Snider would be moved I say hell no. I love Greinke but it just wouldn't be worth it to move two young studs who will have a huge role with us down the road for a him. I will say we should make some sort of a deal for a stud player because we have a lot of catchers who are blocked that we can move and some other good prospects who can be moved.

Asham
10-18-2010, 10:25 AM
If we could get Greinke giving up pieces like Chad Jenkins, AJ Jimenez, and another prospect or two without moving Drabek or Snider I would probably do it.

Yeah, that aint happening

bartron_44
10-18-2010, 01:30 PM
The original quote from ESPN says 2 major league ready "pitchers", with "top of the rotation potential". so they want to swap Grienke (1 current stud) for 2 future studs..not a bad idea for them imo (if they can pull it off).

I bet they are after the dissappointing season he had this year..I would offer Henderson Alvarez and Stewart (at the most), and see if anyone else can beat that offer. I don't see anyone giving up their best 2 pitching prospects for 2 years of Grienke. I don't even se anyone giving up their #1 prospect for him. Maybe after last year when they had 3 years, and his numbers were cy young worthy, but he is coming off a season where he went 10-14 with an ERA of 4.14 ffs. Sure he threw 220 innings, but he only struck out 180, and he wasn't holding opposing teams to 2 runs or fewer every time out like he did in 2009 either. I could see them still asking for 2 top prospects if he put up good numbers and merely had a bad record (i.e King Felix in Seattle this year) but I don't see how ANY team would deplete their pitching prospects for someone who just went 10-14 with an ERA over 4, and a K/9 of 7.4.

anyone willing to give up Drabek for Grienke is out of their minds...........imo anyway

BlueJayFanDan
10-18-2010, 01:38 PM
If he gets traded I have a weird feeling will be on the Dodgers, Mets, or Angels. Just my hunch.

Kelly Gruber
10-18-2010, 01:47 PM
Greinke is great and I'd love to add him to this team, but not at the cost he's going to command. Our only hope is that he still doesn't want to play in a majour market and requests not to be traded to the Sox/Yanks etc. Otherwise a big-money team would be more than willing to throw a few prospects at KC to get Grienke. KC could really use a guy like Montero. We on the other hand can't afford to deal the few elite prospects we have.

Big Hurt
10-18-2010, 02:25 PM
It makes me laugh the way Marcum's name gets tossed in to trades like he is easily expendabe.
He is the leader of this strong young pitching staff, he is 28 years old, he was 13-8 with a 3.64 ERA with a 1.147 WHIP and is as good defensively as any pitcher in baseball. This against the tough AL East.
He made $850,000 last year and is not a free agent until 2013.

So lets toss him in to a deal where Greinke is making almost $10 million/year and was 10-14 with a 4.17 ERA playing in the west.

MARCUM IS NOT A GUY WE CAN AFFORD TO GIVE UP!!!

Shifty1 69
10-18-2010, 02:50 PM
When we finally get some prospects stockpiled, everyone wants to make a deal that would rape everything we've built up.

Try Drabek, Snider and Cecil as starting point with probably alot more needed not the weak trade idea you threw out. The article says a "kings ransom" and Drabek-Snider isn't a kings ransom for two full years of an elite pitcher.

Pass on this idea and all others that would decimate the system that AA has worked so hard to restock.

That deal gets done in a second I think.... and I would cry if it happened.

Grienke is nowhere near worth the 3 noted above.

Not sure why people are soooo concerned about landing that "ace".... SP is not the position we need to piss away any prospects to improve, certainly not worth raping the system completely to acquire.

DiPasquale7
10-18-2010, 03:00 PM
Drabek, Snider and Cecil for 2 years of Greinke would be terrible.. Worst trade ever. And this guy thinks that it'd be a starting point... AA would hang up the phone laughing!

StayOnBoard
10-18-2010, 03:51 PM
If he had two years plus arbitration the Royals wouldn't be open to trading him. His arb years were bought out, he's a FA after 2012.

and this is the problem right here...

Ill pass thanks - unless we can sign him to a big extension it makes absolutely no sense.


Drabek, Snider and Cecil for 2 years of Greinke would be terrible.. Worst trade ever. And this guy thinks that it'd be a starting point... AA would hang up the phone laughing!

That was just a stupid offer - I took it with a grain of salt. There's no way the Jays would give even 2 of those prospects, let alone all 3.... They would probably do Drabek + others or Snider + others but those 3? I mean, really?? Not even close to what the deal would be (I just assumed the guy was a Royals fan hehehe) :p Im kidding - no one go insane/rage up

BIGdanielBABY
10-18-2010, 04:25 PM
The most i give up is marcum and stewart + another prospect. Anything with drabek or snider, I'd hang up.

Twitchy
10-18-2010, 04:27 PM
Considering Moore is still in charge of KC odds are Greinke will get traded for Barry Zito or something ridiculous. He'll probably end up trading him for a guy with a high win total who is a proven consistent winner.

BlueJayFanDan
10-18-2010, 04:31 PM
I agree Twitchy. They have some dumb people running the team. I get a bad feeling that somehow the Yankees will get Greinke using like AJ Burnett and a couple prospects. I dunno.

Eagles4Lyfe
10-18-2010, 04:48 PM
I agree^^ they always trade their good players for nothing like beltran, but their finally rebuilding properly and are getting good talent in their system and by the time their ready they wont need grienke..If we can get him fine but i rather just go after darvish and if we get him then hey we still ahve all our top specs plus a soon to be beast

Nofear
10-18-2010, 05:54 PM
Drabek, Snider and Cecil for 2 years of Greinke would be terrible.. Worst trade ever. And this guy thinks that it'd be a starting point... AA would hang up the phone laughing!

You have trouble with reading skills don't you? I don't want Greinke at all, I said pass on the deal. Those three players would be what the Royals would ask for based on the kings ransom and several other sources saying it would take two front line starters and a prospect hitter to get Greinke. Whats two front line starters and a hitter mean for you? Anyone who thinks they'd ask for anything less is foolish

Feel free to re-read and then go back an amend your ignorant comment "And this guy thinks that it'd be a starting point... AA would hang up the phone laughing"

Nofear
10-18-2010, 06:04 PM
When we finally get some prospects stockpiled, everyone wants to make a deal that would rape everything we've built up.

Try Drabek, Snider and Cecil as starting point with probably alot more needed not the weak trade idea you threw out. The article says a "kings ransom" and Drabek-Snider isn't a kings ransom for two full years of an elite pitcher.

Pass on this idea and all others that would decimate the system that AA has worked so hard to restock.


and this is the problem right here...

Ill pass thanks - unless we can sign him to a big extension it makes absolutely no sense.



That was just a stupid offer - I took it with a grain of salt. There's no way the Jays would give even 2 of those prospects, let alone all 3.... They would probably do Drabek + others or Snider + others but those 3? I mean, really?? Not even close to what the deal would be (I just assumed the guy was a Royals fan hehehe) :p Im kidding - no one go insane/rage up

I re-posted with some bold so you and your friend who clearly mouth off before you read. Its isn't a ****ing offer and if your too dumb to read a post that clearly says PASS on this and all other deals that rape the system, then you shouldn't comment at all. Yeah your kidding about the Royals comment but you don't even understand the orginal post.

Pretty amazing people don't ****ing read the comment but then throw **** at it

BlueJayFanDan
10-18-2010, 06:40 PM
I re-posted with some bold so you and your friend who clearly mouth off before you read. Its isn't a ****ing offer and if your too dumb to read a post that clearly says PASS on this and all other deals that rape the system, then you shouldn't comment at all. Yeah your kidding about the Royals comment but you don't even understand the orginal post.

Pretty amazing people don't ****ing read the comment but then throw **** at it

Wow dude. Relax. People make mistakes. No need to bash people around here.

nithanyo
10-18-2010, 11:14 PM
Halladay + Marcum > Grienke + Gose

The point of trading halladay was to start stock piling prospects. so why are we changing that after 1 year?

First off we made still got a good prospect in Gose through that trade. Secondly we are talking about Grienke here. The guy that had a 2.18 era a season ago. The friggin cy young winner.

I dont see why people are so overprotective about a guy like Drabek and Snider. Snider has not yet proved Jack since his 2 years in the majors. Drabeks father has alot more to do with his popularity than anything. At best drabek is projected to be a number 2 and Travis snider is projected to be a 30hr guy. But would you not trade that for a proven Cy young winner who is still young. I would make that trade in a heart beat.

I would offer a trade of Snider + Drabek + Rzep for Grienke

Grienke
Romero
Marcum
Cecil
Morrow

.... Best rotation in baseball

Shifty1 69
10-19-2010, 08:36 AM
You have trouble with reading skills don't you? I don't want Greinke at all, I said pass on the deal. Those three players would be what the Royals would ask for based on the kings ransom and several other sources saying it would take two front line starters and a prospect hitter to get Greinke. Whats two front line starters and a hitter mean for you? Anyone who thinks they'd ask for anything less is foolish

Feel free to re-read and then go back an amend your ignorant comment "And this guy thinks that it'd be a starting point... AA would hang up the phone laughing"

To be fair, doesnt matter whether you would do the deal or not... you threw it out there that it would take Drabek, Cecil AND Snyder just to get the talks started... and that is ridiculous.
They are apparently looking for a kings ransom and want two potential front line starters, but not necessarily 2/5ths of one of the better current rotations and their best mlb ready positional prospect.
I dont think that AA would hang up laughing... he is too savvy for that. But I would bet my firstborn that him and the boys in the front office are pissing themselves laughing within 2 seconds after he hangs up.:D

Shifty1 69
10-19-2010, 08:47 AM
First off we made still got a good prospect in Gose through that trade. Secondly we are talking about Grienke here. The guy that had a 2.18 era a season ago. The friggin cy young winner.

I dont see why people are so overprotective about a guy like Drabek and Snider. Snider has not yet proved Jack since his 2 years in the majors. Drabeks father has alot more to do with his popularity than anything. At best drabek is projected to be a number 2 and Travis snider is projected to be a 30hr guy. But would you not trade that for a proven Cy young winner who is still young. I would make that trade in a heart beat.

I would offer a trade of Snider + Drabek + Rzep for Grienke

Grienke
Romero
Marcum
Cecil
Morrow

.... Best rotation in baseball

Grienke has had 1 spectacular and 2 pretty good seasons.... plus a history of mental issues.
Why would you give up the best hitting prospect this organization has produced in sometime (quite awhile if Lind isnt in the discussion) for an upgrade a SP that may not be much of an upgrade??
I saw enough of Drabeks stuff to think that he could be capable of 1 great and 2 pretty good seasons in his first 7 too. I would think that Drabek + Snider would get you at least in serious discussion on any player that would be made available (and most even if they werent made available).

Morrow
Marcum
Cecil
Romero
Drabek

Already one of the best rotations in baseball.

DiPasquale7
10-19-2010, 09:12 AM
I re-posted with some bold so you and your friend who clearly mouth off before you read. Its isn't a ****ing offer and if your too dumb to read a post that clearly says PASS on this and all other deals that rape the system, then you shouldn't comment at all. Yeah your kidding about the Royals comment but you don't even understand the orginal post.

Pretty amazing people don't ****ing read the comment but then throw **** at it

:facepalm:

Whats amazing is how you dont know how to read. I never said you'd do the trade. I said you thought that would be a starting point. Which it wont be. That is nowhere near what the starting point would be.

It must be pretty embarassing to be you bashing someone's reading comprehension and being the one who couldnt read. READ MY COMMENT BEFORE BASHING IT.

DiPasquale7
10-19-2010, 09:24 AM
And now to go back to the topic at hand. I feel like we don't really need to blow our prospects on a pitcher. If anything we'd be best off getting a CF or 3B for our studs.

Eagles4Lyfe
10-19-2010, 11:56 AM
:facepalm:

Whats amazing is how you dont know how to read. I never said you'd do the trade. I said you thought that would be a starting point. Which it wont be. That is nowhere near what the starting point would be.

It must be pretty embarassing to be you bashing someone's reading comprehension and being the one who couldnt read. READ MY COMMENT BEFORE BASHING IT.

That guys like that thinks he runs the whole forums and bashes other people when he has so many faults...Trust me its not worth it i just left him, he's not worth it

Eagles4Lyfe
10-19-2010, 12:07 PM
Secondly this deals just like the predicament we were in with Halladay, we wanted a kings ransom too, which led to us not making good trades when they were available because we were holding out for so long, then look what we settled for..We didn't even get the teams best prospect so just because the article says thats what they want doesn't mean thats what teams are going to be giving them..

DiPasquale7
10-19-2010, 01:40 PM
That guys like that thinks he runs the whole forums and bashes other people when he has so many faults...Trust me its not worth it i just left him, he's not worth it

Alright man.. I'll let it go.. Lol.. :hi5:

T.O. Fan
10-19-2010, 01:59 PM
Lol :love:

TO to the CHI
10-19-2010, 02:17 PM
Secondly this deals just like the predicament we were in with Halladay, we wanted a kings ransom too, which led to us not making good trades when they were available because we were holding out for so long, then look what we settled for..We didn't even get the teams best prospect so just because the article says thats what they want doesn't mean thats what teams are going to be giving them..

I really don't think we settled with the Halladay deal at all. I am very happy with the package we received and I think most Phillies fans would tell you it was a haul (though I am sure they are happy with their ROI).

On the Greinke front, I am all for trading for him, but would restrict my offers to something that I was comfortable with. For example, Stewart/Jenkins, Mastroianni(sp)/Thames, AJ Jimenez, and one of our picks from this year (not Deck). I think that is an offer that I could easily live with as a Jays fan. I also know it is far less than the Royals expect, but I don't see how much better an offer they will realistically get. It is comparable to the Mets offer for Santana. Bottom line, I know it is hurts our farm depth, but the benefits are huge. Greinke doesn't seem like a guy who will want to play in NY or Boston (the anxiety issues, etc.) and so we would have a crack at resigning him and could have a dominant rotation for years to come (making the pitchers dealt very expendable). Not to mention we are trading from prospect depth in the outfield and at catcher.

2009mvp
10-19-2010, 02:35 PM
Greinke has a no-trade list of 8-10 teams. If Toronto's on that list this is all moot.

Johann
10-19-2010, 03:02 PM
He apparently says that he wants to go to a winning team, that is winning before his contract is up...

We have an above .500 record, but are we winning???

2009mvp
10-19-2010, 03:40 PM
Well considering the Jays have something like the 10th best record in baseball for the decade and haven't gotten to the playoffs once, I'd say Toronto's pretty far down on the list if you seriously want to win. Not to mention the AL East isn't the place you want to be when you're looking to set yourself up for a big contract through free agency.

Eagles4Lyfe
10-19-2010, 04:14 PM
Alright man.. I'll let it go.. Lol.. :hi5:
lol not worth the ban or infraction still

I really don't think we settled with the Halladay deal at all. I am very happy with the package we received and I think most Phillies fans would tell you it was a haul (though I am sure they are happy with their ROI).

On the Greinke front, I am all for trading for him, but would restrict my offers to something that I was comfortable with. For example, Stewart/Jenkins, Mastroianni(sp)/Thames, AJ Jimenez, and one of our picks from this year (not Deck). I think that is an offer that I could easily live with as a Jays fan. I also know it is far less than the Royals expect, but I don't see how much better an offer they will realistically get. It is comparable to the Mets offer for Santana. Bottom line, I know it is hurts our farm depth, but the benefits are huge. Greinke doesn't seem like a guy who will want to play in NY or Boston (the anxiety issues, etc.) and so we would have a crack at resigning him and could have a dominant rotation for years to come (making the pitchers dealt very expendable). Not to mention we are trading from prospect depth in the outfield and at catcher.

I agree about the depleting of our farm system, BUT theres a backdoor solution and that is, we can still get some young guys in our farm system via the international market and soon within the next few years there should be some interesting talents that might come looking for MLB teams and that's where we can try and restock..
Secondly the anxiety issues the exact reason why i think he wont want to play for the redsox or yankees or mets because he'll have so much pressure on him that he cant handle or take, which is why a team like the rays or jays would make sense for him in the AL east...If hes a FA i think hes really fair game and attainable for us but trade wise i dont know if i want to give up a humangous amount

jaysfan4ever
10-19-2010, 09:41 PM
It makes me laugh the way Marcum's name gets tossed in to trades like he is easily expendabe.
He is the leader of this strong young pitching staff, he is 28 years old, he was 13-8 with a 3.64 ERA with a 1.147 WHIP and is as good defensively as any pitcher in baseball. This against the tough AL East.
He made $850,000 last year and is not a free agent until 2013.

So lets toss him in to a deal where Greinke is making almost $10 million/year and was 10-14 with a 4.17 ERA playing in the west.

MARCUM IS NOT A GUY WE CAN AFFORD TO GIVE UP!!!

+1
Marcum is a solid pitcher, and staff leader. He's the vet we wanted to spend $10 million on last offseason, and he's a #2 starter.



That deal gets done in a second I think.... and I would cry if it happened.

Grienke is nowhere near worth the 3 noted above.

Not sure why people are soooo concerned about landing that "ace".... SP is not the position we need to piss away any prospects to improve, certainly not worth raping the system completely to acquire.

I don't see our system being raped, I see opposing hitters being raped.

Ask the Yankee juggernaut how they feel being down 2-1 after what Lee did yesterday. Ask the mighty Phils how they feel being down 2-1 after getting raped by Cain today. Ask AA how he feels about starting pitching. You can never have enough quality starting pitching. Drabek has a "chance" at becoming an ace. With prospects, you never know.



First off we made still got a good prospect in Gose through that trade. Secondly we are talking about Grienke here. The guy that had a 2.18 era a season ago. The friggin cy young winner.

I dont see why people are so overprotective about a guy like Drabek and Snider. Snider has not yet proved Jack since his 2 years in the majors. Drabeks father has alot more to do with his popularity than anything. At best drabek is projected to be a number 2 and Travis snider is projected to be a 30hr guy. But would you not trade that for a proven Cy young winner who is still young. I would make that trade in a heart beat.

I would offer a trade of Snider + Drabek + Rzep for Grienke

Grienke
Romero
Marcum
Cecil
Morrow

.... Best rotation in baseball

Snider + Drabek + Rzep gets it done for sure, can't see them getting any better offers. I mean comparing that to the Halladay offer:

Snider >> Wallace (Snider was a former BA top 10 spec, and is ML-ready at age 22)
Drabek = Drabek
D'Arnaud > Rzep (slight edge to Rzep)

If we don't ask for cash back, they get more back than we got for Halladay. Drabek + Snider is a HUGE haul in itself, and I doubt that gets beat, as it's basically our 2 best young players. I see them as expendable, though, because with Bautista and Wells in the OF, Snider at LF is very replaceable. And with a crowded rotation, Drabek could be used to get someone better.




Grienke has had 1 spectacular and 2 pretty good seasons.... plus a history of mental issues.
Why would you give up the best hitting prospect this organization has produced in sometime (quite awhile if Lind isnt in the discussion) for an upgrade a SP that may not be much of an upgrade??
I saw enough of Drabeks stuff to think that he could be capable of 1 great and 2 pretty good seasons in his first 7 too. I would think that Drabek + Snider would get you at least in serious discussion on any player that would be made available (and most even if they werent made available).

Morrow
Marcum
Cecil
Romero
Drabek

Already one of the best rotations in baseball.

But when will Drabek be an above average ML player? 3 years from now? Escobar will be gone, Hill will be in the last year of his contract, Bautista may be gone, Marcum




i'd part with almost anything but drabek and snider...especially in the same deal... and it's not cause i've falline 'in love' because they're our prospects.. i just want to watch them evolve as jays... we're beginning to transition to a new generation of jays baseball and i remember what it was like to watch roy come up, fail, and return and never look back... something special about that road... not saying they're the caliber of player akin to halladay but we don't know what they can or can't be, unless we let them try..

Hey, if Drabek + Stewart/JPA/D'Arnaud gets it done, that would be great. I was looking at the asking price, and substituting ML-ready starter with top-of-the-rotation potential with amazing young hitter. I'd MUCH rather part with Snider than Cecil, as guys like that don't grow on trees, while hitting left fielders are the easiest place to find an impact free agent bat for when we're ready to compete. The emergence of Bautista has rendered Snider expendable.




lol not worth the ban or infraction still


I agree about the depleting of our farm system, BUT theres a backdoor solution and that is, we can still get some young guys in our farm system via the international market and soon within the next few years there should be some interesting talents that might come looking for MLB teams and that's where we can try and restock..
Secondly the anxiety issues the exact reason why i think he wont want to play for the redsox or yankees or mets because he'll have so much pressure on him that he cant handle or take, which is why a team like the rays or jays would make sense for him in the AL east...If hes a FA i think hes really fair game and attainable for us but trade wise i dont know if i want to give up a humangous amount

I know we're giving up our best prospects. But, if you look at the way the roster's looking, we're almost set. Without Snider, the only holes in our roster are 1B/DH (depending on where Lind plays), LF, #1 starter, closer and 3B. Out of those 4, the hardest one to find, BY FAR, is a #1 starter. With Greinke, we fill the hole that is the hardest to fill on the roster. For 3B, we can use Bautista there, or go for a guy like Kelly Johnson. Closers are easy to find as well.

Maybe Snider + Drabek is a bit much (that would be my limit), as we didn't get that for Halladay. But if we could find a way to do it with Snider + Stewart, or Drabek + Stewart, I'd pull the trigger in a heartbeat.

T.O. Fan
10-19-2010, 09:46 PM
You can't deplete the farm system/depth like that for a guy who's only under team control for a couple more years when you're not even in playoff contention.

No.

StayOnBoard
10-19-2010, 09:57 PM
You can't deplete the farm system/depth like that for a guy who's only under team control for a couple more years when you're not even in playoff contention.

No.

I agree with everything except the bolded part.

With a few key moves this off-season we are very much a POTENTIAL playoff contender.

Remember the year the Rays went to the WS - they were pegged last (just like the Jays were pegged to be last before the 2010 season).

We would need things to go the right way for us, but yes, we could definitely be a playoff team.

Now - all that aside, I agree completely that you don't trade Snider + Drabek + another mid-level prospect for a guy with a 10 mil a year salary and is a free agent after 2012. Terrible baseball decision and frankly, we don't need him. Last I checked, our starting pitching isn't the problem, and Grienke didn't exactly have a lights-out year.

Nofear
10-20-2010, 08:17 AM
:facepalm:

Whats amazing is how you dont know how to read. I never said you'd do the trade. I said you thought that would be a starting point. Which it wont be. That is nowhere near what the starting point would be.

It must be pretty embarassing to be you bashing someone's reading comprehension and being the one who couldnt read. READ MY COMMENT BEFORE BASHING IT.

So every report thats says the Royals want two front line starters and a power hitting prospect are wrong and you're right? Google the rumors for what they want in return

Cecil, Drabek and Snider sure looks like two front line starters and a power hitter to me. If you don't think these are the first three guys the Royals ask for then your a fool. Like Jaysfan said, Drabek, Snider and Rzep would get it done but its common sense the Royals would start asking for way more. Its pretty foolish to think the Royals would start asking for anything less because its easier to come down than ask for more isn't it? Guess you have no idea about the bargaining process.

Typical homers who overvalue there own players way too much. People think Drabek and garbage is enough for a 27 yr old elite pitcher that is controlable at a reasonable price for two years. We got more than that for an older Halladay that wasn't controllable beyond a year and certainly didn't have a managable contract. I wouldn't do the deal regardless of who's invovled, but common sense and dozens of online reports tells me what's realistic that the Royals would ask for in return.

Shifty1 69
10-20-2010, 09:17 AM
+1
Marcum is a solid pitcher, and staff leader. He's the vet we wanted to spend $10 million on last offseason, and he's a #2 starter.




I don't see our system being raped, I see opposing hitters being raped.

Ask the Yankee juggernaut how they feel being down 2-1 after what Lee did yesterday. Ask the mighty Phils how they feel being down 2-1 after getting raped by Cain today. Ask AA how he feels about starting pitching. You can never have enough quality starting pitching. Drabek has a "chance" at becoming an ace. With prospects, you never know.

I personally feel that with Grienke that "we never know" what you will get. He had a GREAT year, but outside of that he has never been an ace... and he is not shown the consistency to be considered a stud ace by default.



Snider + Drabek + Rzep gets it done for sure, can't see them getting any better offers. I mean comparing that to the Halladay offer:

Snider >> Wallace (Snider was a former BA top 10 spec, and is ML-ready at age 22)
Drabek = Drabek
D'Arnaud > Rzep (slight edge to Rzep)

If we don't ask for cash back, they get more back than we got for Halladay. Drabek + Snider is a HUGE haul in itself, and I doubt that gets beat, as it's basically our 2 best young players. I see them as expendable, though, because with Bautista and Wells in the OF, Snider at LF is very replaceable. And with a crowded rotation, Drabek could be used to get someone better.

Its Drabek thats a year closer to being a full time MLB starter and won the AA pitcher of the year, Drabek carries more value now than when the Jays received him, and agreed that Snider is >>>>>> Wallace and he's 2 years younger to boot.




But when will Drabek be an above average ML player? If I didnt think he would be, then I would want him traded, Hill will be in the last year of his contract, Bautista may be gone, Marcum - Not sure why this would matter, no team would know the exact layout of their team in 3 years... but dont forget that Grienke is only under contract for a few years too... and no guarantees he will resign... if they trade Drabek and Stewart to get him, how is the team any better off in 3 years anyways?








I know we're giving up our best prospects. But, if you look at the way the roster's looking, we're almost set. Without Snider, the only holes in our roster are 1B/DH (depending on where Lind plays), LF, #1 starter, closer and 3B. Out of those 4, the hardest one to find, BY FAR, is a #1 starter. With Greinke, we fill the hole that is the hardest to fill on the roster. For 3B, we can use Bautista there, or go for a guy like Kelly Johnson. Closers are easy to find as well.

Maybe Snider + Drabek is a bit much (that would be my limit), as we didn't get that for Halladay. But if we could find a way to do it with Snider + Stewart, or Drabek + Stewart, I'd pull the trigger in a heartbeat.- you are entitled to your opinion, but I disagree wholeheartedly in the valuation you place on the 2 most important young pieces in the Toronto system and how you feel that the difference between Grienke and whomever he replaces (Cecil, Drabek) would be worth the cost of our best young hitter and best pitching prospect(s)....

I would like to add Grienke to the team... but I dont feel he is worth mortgaging the future of the team to acquire. The Jays have the makings of a dominant starting rotation without adding a guy that has shown once that he can be phenominal, but outside of that has not shown to be much of an "ace".... My opinion of the guy is probably far too low, but I also think some on think far too highly of him without justification.

nithanyo
10-20-2010, 09:59 AM
I would like to add Grienke to the team... but I dont feel he is worth mortgaging the future of the team to acquire. The Jays have the makings of a dominant starting rotation without adding a guy that has shown once that he can be phenominal, but outside of that has not shown to be much of an "ace".... My opinion of the guy is probably far too low, but I also think some on think far too highly of him without justification.

You dont win a cy young award and have a 2.18 era by fluke. He is the real deal. He has electric stuff and had he played for a team that could score him some runs Im sure he would be a better pitcher than his numbers indicate

Eagles4Lyfe
10-20-2010, 11:04 AM
So every report thats says the Royals want two front line starters and a power hitting prospect are wrong and you're right? Google the rumors for what they want in return

Cecil, Drabek and Snider sure looks like two front line starters and a power hitter to me. If you don't think these are the first three guys the Royals ask for then your a fool. Like Jaysfan said, Drabek, Snider and Rzep would get it done but its common sense the Royals would start asking for way more. Its pretty foolish to think the Royals would start asking for anything less because its easier to come down than ask for more isn't it? Guess you have no idea about the bargaining process.

Typical homers who overvalue there own players way too much. People think Drabek and garbage is enough for a 27 yr old elite pitcher that is controlable at a reasonable price for two years. We got more than that for an older Halladay that wasn't controllable beyond a year and certainly didn't have a managable contract. I wouldn't do the deal regardless of who's invovled, but common sense and dozens of online reports tells me what's realistic that the Royals would ask for in return.

Wrong.. The phillies were willing to give us the return they did, if they reached a contract extension with doc first which they did then they went ahead and finalized the trade..In the end they got an amazing bargain for an ace pitcher and arguably the best pitcher in the game..
You keep basing everything of online reports not everything your going to read online is going to be true, did you see any online reports for the halladay talks that ended up being correct?? No, because we only heard rumours of players that people thought we could probably get but in the end didn't end up getting..NEVER did it ever say online that its going to take a 3 way trade to get the deal done and sources kept thinking we would get dominic brown or taylor with like a happ or something but look who we ended up getting..We pryed away drabek and got d'naurd which no sources ever mentioned of us getting, until the end..We got that because of the extension and because we gave them 6 million too this year for his contract..
He's not a homer you just don't understand the concept of value, no team in their right mind is going to give that kind of return for a player, heck if the best pitcher in baseball couldn't get a ransom return what makes you think the royals can with the way they've freely given away their players over the years???
I said this before obviously the royals are going to ask for a lot in return but does that mean their going to get it or something close to it?? Heck no the one thing i do agree with you though is the deal will probably include drabek, but drabek snider and another top prospect close to the bigs?? Ya right the royals better get ready to send something else in the deal too..

Shifty1 69
10-20-2010, 11:54 AM
You dont win a cy young award and have a 2.18 era by fluke. He is the real deal. He has electric stuff and had he played for a team that could score him some runs Im sure he would be a better pitcher than his numbers indicate

Just a quick look based on a hunch... seems Grienkes career #'s (even with his incredible season) are very similar to those of another Stud Ace named Ted Lilly (tho lilly has done it for much longer)...:rolleyes:

I am not suggesting that Grienkes stuff is at all comparable to Lilly, but he has yet to show any consistent dominant performance that makes me 100% sold on moving 2 or 3 of the best the Jays system has to offer in order to have him starting over a younger, more cost controlled Drabek.

I do actually think that Drabek can put up average to better #'s within a season or two in teh bigs and I dont see giving him + Snider + anyone else, as a wise move.

I would consider trading Drabek straight up, or even add lower tier spects, but no way they clean out the system for him. I would be pissed if they did.

For all I know, Grienke is the greatest pitcher ever but has been held back from being all that he can be every year by the curse that comes with wearing a Royals uniform... or he can be a youngish guy with excellent stuff that never really dominates (there are many of them out there)...

As for the CY year by fluke, I dont think it was a complete fluke, but it absolutely does happen. There was a dude named Davis that won it with the Padres once upon a time... if I am not mistaken he never posted an ERA below 5 after that.... he was a reliever, not a direct comparison.... but flukes do happen.

Unless of course you wanna be able to look back and rejoice that your team traded away Lee Stevens, Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips for Bartolo Colon.... :eyebrow::D just kidding.

Nofear
10-20-2010, 12:03 PM
Wrong.. The phillies were willing to give us the return they did, if they reached a contract extension with doc first which they did then they went ahead and finalized the trade..In the end they got an amazing bargain for an ace pitcher and arguably the best pitcher in the game..
You keep basing everything of online reports not everything your going to read online is going to be true, did you see any online reports for the halladay talks that ended up being correct?? No, because we only heard rumours of players that people thought we could probably get but in the end didn't end up getting..NEVER did it ever say online that its going to take a 3 way trade to get the deal done and sources kept thinking we would get dominic brown or taylor with like a happ or something but look who we ended up getting..We pryed away drabek and got d'naurd which no sources ever mentioned of us getting, until the end..We got that because of the extension and because we gave them 6 million too this year for his contract..
He's not a homer you just don't understand the concept of value, no team in their right mind is going to give that kind of return for a player, heck if the best pitcher in baseball couldn't get a ransom return what makes you think the royals can with the way they've freely given away their players over the years???
I said this before obviously the royals are going to ask for a lot in return but does that mean their going to get it or something close to it?? Heck no the one thing i do agree with you though is the deal will probably include drabek, but drabek snider and another top prospect close to the bigs?? Ya right the royals better get ready to send something else in the deal too..


You shoot down your own argument in the very first line. Halladay was not controllable at all and the Jays were forced to take less than what they would have liked because he wasn't controlled by a contract of more than a year. The extension requirement limited the teams in play and lowered Halladays value the Jays could get back.

With Greinke its not the case because any team that gets him has a year to convince him to stay and if they can't they deal him after one year and get players back similar to the value Toronto got for Halladay.

Think about it, at the end of 2011, Greinke will have basically the exact same situation Halladay did and thus should net the same return and possibly more because he's going to be 4 years younger. Thats why today, Greinke would net a much bigger return than Halladay did, because he's got that one extra year and whoever gets him now would get one year of Greinke pitching and a Halladay package as a worst case scenario. That makes a huge difference in what he's worth today.

Halladay to Greinke comprsions don't work because of that extra year thats in play. Greinke is clearly worth alot more because you get that extra year. Halladay's extension did nothing and perhap hurt the deal because the Jays never had the leverage KC does. Its a fact no matter how blind you are

Nofear
10-20-2010, 12:23 PM
One more thing:After 2011, Greinke and Halladays value will be almost the same as I mentioned. Halladay being slightly better and Greinke being slightly younger.

Keeping in mind the above what is one year of Greinke worth? Milwaukee gave up Matt LaPorta, Zach Jackson, and Rob Bryson for 17 games of CC.

To think Halladay with one year on his deal is worth Drabek, Travis D'Arnaud and Taylor but its so absurd to think Greinke is worth more with that extra year. Stunning

Shifty1 69
10-20-2010, 01:08 PM
One more thing:After 2011, Greinke and Halladays value will be almost the same as I mentioned. Halladay being slightly better and Greinke being slightly younger.

Keeping in mind the above what is one year of Greinke worth? Milwaukee gave up Matt LaPorta, Zach Jackson, and Rob Bryson for 17 games of CC.

To think Halladay with one year on his deal is worth Drabek, Travis D'Arnaud and Taylor but its so absurd to think Greinke is worth more with that extra year. Stunning

Part of the reason the Phils did the deal was because Halladay had agreed to an extension... so it was 5 years (plus the Phils received $9mil) of Doc for D'Arnaud, Drabek and Taylor.... so really its Greinke with less years... and Greinke has youth, Doc has everything else....

Matt Laporta may turn out fine... Zach Jackson is a throw in... hell i am pretty sure the Jays picked him up for free off the scrap heap this year. If the Brewers overpaid, it wouldnt help that it was at the deadline and they were pushing for a playoff spot. May be the best way for the Royals to deal Grienke too, wait for a great deadline deal and a GM under the gun to do something...

Its fine for the Royals to shoot for more than the Drabek/Darnaud/Taylor.... but Drabek (more value now that when he was traded to the Jays), Snider (waaaay more value than Darnaud at this point) and Brett Cecil is infinitely more valuable than Taylor, plus has 2 successful MLB seasons at 24yo. Is a way way way way better package than what the Phils gave up.

I dont think people are saying that Grienke isnt worth a big package, nor would the sane people conclude that he could be obtained using 2nd tier prospects... but speaking for myself, I cant think of many/any single players in all of MLB that I would trade straight up for Cecil, Drabek AND Snider.... I wouldnt trade them for Doc Halladay.... ;):D

T.O. Fan
10-20-2010, 01:09 PM
I agree with everything except the bolded part.

With a few key moves this off-season we are very much a POTENTIAL playoff contender.

Remember the year the Rays went to the WS - they were pegged last (just like the Jays were pegged to be last before the 2010 season).

We would need things to go the right way for us, but yes, we could definitely be a playoff team.

Now - all that aside, I agree completely that you don't trade Snider + Drabek + another mid-level prospect for a guy with a 10 mil a year salary and is a free agent after 2012. Terrible baseball decision and frankly, we don't need him. Last I checked, our starting pitching isn't the problem, and Grienke didn't exactly have a lights-out year.

The Jays were 11 games back of the division lead and 10 games back of the wild card.

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/standings/

That's a hell of a lot of WAR to make up and it extremely unlikely to happen.

The Jays would have to sign Lee, Victor Martinez, Beltre, Soriano, trade for Fielder, have Bautista, Wells the rotation repeat this year and have Hill and Lind bounce back to 2009 form.

I just don't see that the Jays are as close to contention as others on this site think they are.

B2B
10-20-2010, 02:48 PM
The Jays were 11 games back of the division lead and 10 games back of the wild card.

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/standings/

That's a hell of a lot of WAR to make up and it extremely unlikely to happen.

The Jays would have to sign Lee, Victor Martinez, Beltre, Soriano, trade for Fielder, have Bautista, Wells the rotation repeat this year and have Hill and Lind bounce back to 2009 form.

I just don't see that the Jays are as close to contention as others on this site think they are.

Did you see the Jays winning 80+ games this year after losing Halladay?

Pitching was never a hole on this team. Jays have always had solid pitching. Where the Jays have struggled is offensively Jose Bautista had a bigger impact offensively than the lost of Halladay did on the overall Pitching. Marcum/Romero/Cecil/Morrow though not Halladay, were solid performers. Bautista hitting 50HR's = well above an offence expected & the reason Jays exceeded expectation.

Fielder = the consistent power Jays are hoping Bautista can repeat. Baseball experts are predicting Bautista will hit around 30 HR's next season, Fielder has consistently hit 30+. Factor if they had more base runners (Better averages). Hill/Escobar & Lind hitting for better averages alone improves this team if Bautista's HR production falls off. This is not factoring Fielders 30+ HR potential over Overbay @ 1st. Bautista/Fielder can hit anywhere from as low as 40 HR's to as high as 100HR's combined. With Hill/Escobar/Lind bouncing back average wise = more base runners, more runs. Then Factor Romero/Cecil/Morrow being more seasoned. The only holes left are bullpen & closer. This Jays team lost several games early last season due to the closer role.

Fielder/Soriano & internal improvement alone IMO puts this team into contention for the wild card spot, the addition of an ace like Lee/Greinke is gravy.

^ It's hard to weight how certain players will impact a roster. Teams make trades thinking certain players would benefit the team which sometimes they do & sometimes they don't, (i.e Seattle). On paper they should've made a run for the post season but didn't.

As mentioned IMO the closer role & consistent offence are the Jays 2 biggest needs.

Fielder has proven he can anchor an offence with consistency & in a one run game they're less than a handfull of players I would want at bat other than Fielder. Jays now have Bautista & Fielder's power at the corners.

As for Greinke rather throw money at a proven ace like Lee & use assets to trade for positional players than buy positional players & trade for an unproven ace with top prospects.

Greinke is a deadline trade for a team heading to the post season not a preseason risk.

Nofear
10-20-2010, 03:03 PM
Part of the reason the Phils did the deal was because Halladay had agreed to an extension... so it was 5 years (plus the Phils received $9mil) of Doc for D'Arnaud, Drabek and Taylor.... so really its Greinke with less years... and Greinke has youth, Doc has everything else....

Matt Laporta may turn out fine... Zach Jackson is a throw in... hell i am pretty sure the Jays picked him up for free off the scrap heap this year. If the Brewers overpaid, it wouldnt help that it was at the deadline and they were pushing for a playoff spot. May be the best way for the Royals to deal Grienke too, wait for a great deadline deal and a GM under the gun to do something...

Its fine for the Royals to shoot for more than the Drabek/Darnaud/Taylor.... but Drabek (more value now that when he was traded to the Jays), Snider (waaaay more value than Darnaud at this point) and Brett Cecil is infinitely more valuable than Taylor, plus has 2 successful MLB seasons at 24yo. Is a way way way way better package than what the Phils gave up.

I dont think people are saying that Grienke isnt worth a big package, nor would the sane people conclude that he could be obtained using 2nd tier prospects... but speaking for myself, I cant think of many/any single players in all of MLB that I would trade straight up for Cecil, Drabek AND Snider.... I wouldnt trade them for Doc Halladay.... ;):D

As I said, Halladay would only agree to an extension with certain teams so the 5 years isn't valid. It was probably a hinderance more than helpful because he probable would only go to one or two teams thus thinning the market. By calling it 5 years glosses over the key point and that is a team that acquires Greinke will have one year to convince him to stay long term and if no deal gets hammered out, then you move him and get a similar package to what Halladay got. The team acquiring Greinke is in a real good position no matter how it goes down, which was security Toronto couldn't offer for the team getting Halladay.

Just to refresh it, I said I wouldn't do it either. I wouldn't do any deal that tears apart the young core thats being built. My biggest point is some think Drabek and filler gets it done but Greinke should command even more than Halladay because the acquiring team has control and security to back up a big investment.

T.O. Fan
10-20-2010, 03:52 PM
Did you see the Jays winning 80+ games this year after losing Halladay?

Pitching was never a hole on this team. Jays have always had solid pitching. Where the Jays have struggled is offensively Jose Bautista had a bigger impact offensively than the lost of Halladay did on the overall Pitching. Marcum/Romero/Cecil/Morrow though not Halladay, were solid performers. Bautista hitting 50HR's = well above an offence expected & the reason Jays exceeded expectation.

Fielder = the consistent power Jays are hoping Bautista can repeat. Baseball experts are predicting Bautista will hit around 30 HR's next season, Fielder has consistently hit 30+. Factor if they had more base runners (Better averages). Hill/Escobar & Lind hitting for better averages alone improves this team if Bautista's HR production falls off. This is not factoring Fielders 30+ HR potential over Overbay @ 1st. Bautista/Fielder can hit anywhere from as low as 40 HR's to as high as 100HR's combined. With Hill/Escobar/Lind bouncing back average wise = more base runners, more runs. Then Factor Romero/Cecil/Morrow being more seasoned. The only holes left are bullpen & closer. This Jays team lost several games early last season due to the closer role.

Fielder/Soriano & internal improvement alone IMO puts this team into contention for the wild card spot, the addition of an ace like Lee/Greinke is gravy.

^ It's hard to weight how certain players will impact a roster. Teams make trades thinking certain players would benefit the team which sometimes they do & sometimes they don't, (i.e Seattle). On paper they should've made a run for the post season but didn't.

As mentioned IMO the closer role & consistent offence are the Jays 2 biggest needs.

Fielder has proven he can anchor an offence with consistency & in a one run game they're less than a handfull of players I would want at bat other than Fielder. Jays now have Bautista & Fielder's power at the corners.

As for Greinke rather throw money at a proven ace like Lee & use assets to trade for positional players than buy positional players & trade for an unproven ace with top prospects.

Greinke is a deadline trade for a team heading to the post season not a preseason risk.

I 100% disagree. That wouldn't be enough to make up an 11 or 12 GB gap.

Speaking of factors, how about factoring that the Jays rotation was almost completely healthy last season and the chances of that happening again this year? What about factoring in the gapping hole at 3B?

B2B
10-20-2010, 04:29 PM
I 100% disagree. That wouldn't be enough to make up an 11 or 12 GB gap.

How many games did the Jays lose in the 8-9th?. I recall 10-11 to start the season between Frasier/Gregg/Downs with leads greater than 1 run. Soriano insted of Frasier/Gregg = how many saved?


Speaking of factors, how about factoring that the Jays rotation was almost completely healthy last season and the chances of that happening again this year? What about factoring in the gapping hole at 3B?

Can't you say this about most rotations. Yes it's a factor but the arms are young & the Jays have depth who have pitched in the majors with relative success Rez/Mills etc..... Drabek could also break the 5 hole adding more depth.

Bautista @ 3rd is better than Encarcion both offensively & defensively.


LF Lewis/Snider | CF Wells | RF Snider/Bautista

3B Bautista/Mcdonald | SS Escobar | 2B Hill | 1B Fielder/Lind

(McDonald for defence in close games, rotate the outfield)

C Molina | Arencibia

DH Lind/Fielder

Rotation Marcum/Romero/Morrow/Cecil/Drabek ---Mills/Rezypski

Batting Order

Lewis
Escobar
Bautista
Fielder
Wells
Lind
Hill
Snider
Molina/Arencibia

Bullpen

Soriano
Downs
Carlsen
Camp
Jansen
Stewart
Mill
Rezypski

StayOnBoard
10-20-2010, 04:50 PM
The Jays were 11 games back of the division lead and 10 games back of the wild card.

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/standings/

That's a hell of a lot of WAR to make up and it extremely unlikely to happen.

The Jays would have to sign Lee, Victor Martinez, Beltre, Soriano, trade for Fielder, have Bautista, Wells the rotation repeat this year and have Hill and Lind bounce back to 2009 form.

I just don't see that the Jays are as close to contention as others on this site think they are.

Im not sure why you seem to think paper = real wins.

Im also sure I don't need to remind anyone how the Rays were a LAST place team for a decade and then the very next year went to the World Series.

Everyone thought they were a fluke, but fluke no more.

Just sayin... don't be so quick to judge and instantly be negative - teams can turn it around, even with just a few more players (and players like Wells, Hill, Lind, Snider - all playing like they should).

Twitchy
10-20-2010, 04:52 PM
How many games did the Jays lose in the 8-9th?. I recall 10-11 to start the season between Frasier/Gregg/Downs with leads greater than 1 run. Soriano insted of Frasier/Gregg = how many saved?

At best you're looking at 3 extra saves. Gregg's save % was 83 and Soriano's was 93%. Which just shows how overrated a closer is. It's probably closer to 1-2 extra games saved.


Can't you say this about most rotations. Yes it's a factor but the arms are young & the Jays have depth who have pitched in the majors with relative success Rez/Mills etc..... Drabek could also break the 5 hole adding more depth.

It's very unusual to have the entire rotation stay healthy. Hell, just look at the past few years when Marcum, McGowan, Litsch among others were out for months, if not full seasons. I'd be worried someone might be injured too.

Having Mills/Rzep is nice but there's a big drop off going from say Romero to Mills.


Bautista @ 3rd is better than Encarcion both offensively & defensively.

Well then you have a huge weakness in RF since Bautista can't play both spots (assuming Snider plays LF).


LF Lewis/Snider | CF Wells | RF Snider/Bautista

A team going for the playoffs needs to do a lot better than Lewis in the OF.

Edit:


Im not sure why you seem to think paper = real wins.

Im also sure I don't need to remind anyone how the Rays were a LAST place team for a decade and then the very next year went to the World Series.

The guys who used the "paper wins" thought that in 2008, the year the Rays eventually would go to the playoffs, that they'd be a playoff team with 90+ wins.

StayOnBoard
10-20-2010, 05:15 PM
The guys who used the "paper wins" thought that in 2008, the year the Rays eventually would go to the playoffs, that they'd be a playoff team with 90+ wins.

Which also means nothing apart from educated guessing an opinions.... of course, unless there's a crystal ball somewhere that Im unaware of :shrug:

FlakeyFool
10-20-2010, 05:23 PM
I think people forget what rebuilding means.

B2B
10-20-2010, 05:42 PM
Which also means nothing apart from educated guessing an opinions.... of course, unless there's a crystal ball somewhere that Im unaware of :shrug:

Blue Jays this past season

Lewis played majority LF & batted leadoff

Offensively Snider can't match 50 HR's & defensively he doesn't have Bautista's arm but he has offensive potential not yet reached

Bautista @ 3rd > Encarcion both offensively/defensively

Therefore the upgrade is Snider over Encarcion over the 3 positions LF/RF/3B Encarcion is removed in favor of Snider.

Bautista's offence remains
Lewis in LF/leadoff remains
Snider over Encarcion = difference/improvement both offensively/defensively though you lose Bautista's arm in RF. (Infield/3B is more important than RF defensively & Bautista > Encarcion)

At 1B Fielder's power/consistency 30+ HR's 100+ RBI's > Overbay in terms of overall worth though Overbay is the better defender

At closer Soriano > Gregg

= Jays significantly improve 3 positions on a 80+ win team

Snider over Encarcion
Soriano over Gregg
Fielder over Overbay

My opinion is they make the wild card spot with the addition of Fielder/Soriano.

Asham
10-20-2010, 05:46 PM
Blue Jays this past season

Lewis played majority LF & batted leadoff

Offensively Snider can't match 50 HR's & defensively he doesn't have Bautista's arm but he has offensive potential not yet reached

Bautista @ 3rd > Encarcion both offensively/defensively

Therefore the upgrade is Snider over Encarcion over the 3 positions LF/RF/3B Encarcion is removed in favor of Snider.

Bautista's offence remains
Lewis in LF/leadoff remains
Snider over Encarcion = difference/improvement both offensively/defensively though you lose Bautista's arm in RF. (Infield/3B is more important than RF defensively & Bautista > Encarcion)

At 1B Fielder's power/consistency 30+ HR's 100+ RBI's > Overbay in terms of overall worth though Overbay is the better defender

At closer Soriano > Gregg

= Jays significantly improve 3 positions on a 80+ win team

Snider over Encarcion
Soriano over Gregg
Fielder over Overbay

My opinion is they make the wild card spot with the addition of Fielder/Soriano.

I have my doubts a first baseman who can move as fast as a glacier and a pretty good closer are the only additions that will propel them to the playoffs

B2B
10-20-2010, 05:52 PM
I think people forget what rebuilding means.

Timing & opportunity, when do you stop rebuilding?. Jays just won 80+ games with a young core of players.

I'm not too familier with Baseball & their draft but I assume winning 80 games is not going to land any top picks?.

B2B
10-20-2010, 06:05 PM
I have my doubts a first baseman who can move as fast as a glacier and a pretty good closer are the only additions that will propel them to the playoffs

& Snider's potential over Encarcion between LF/RF/3B production.

Last year = LF Lewis, RF Bautista, 3B Encarcion
This year = LF Lewis, RF Snider, 3B Bautista

As I mentioned earlier people had doubts Jays without Halladay would/could win 80+ games but they did. None looking at that roster would have said that be the case.

Overbay 243 avg | 20 HR's | 65 RBI's | 75 runs | 1 SB | .329 OB% (contract year)
Fielder 261 avg | 32 HR's | 83 RBI's | 95 runs | 1 SB | .401 OB% (had a down season)

Soriano > Gregg

2009mvp
10-20-2010, 06:10 PM
Why does everyone insist Bautista is a good defender? He's just not. Better than E5 at third? Marginally (and obviously that's not saying much). Better than Snider in RF? I'm not so sure.

B2B
10-20-2010, 06:15 PM
Why does everyone insist Bautista is a good defender? He's just not. Better than E5 at third? Marginally (and obviously that's not saying much). Better than Snider in RF? I'm not so sure.

Did not say Bautista is a good defensive 3 baseman, said he was an upgrade defensively to Encarcion @ 3rd which even if minimal still an improvement over wild throws to 1st.

Too add if Snider is on par defensively it only adds to the benefit of my argument because there would be no defensive drop off in RF but an improvement @ 3rd while improving the offence by playing Snider over Encarcion.

T.O. Fan
10-20-2010, 08:08 PM
At best you're looking at 3 extra saves. Gregg's save % was 83 and Soriano's was 93%. Which just shows how overrated a closer is. It's probably closer to 1-2 extra games saved.



It's very unusual to have the entire rotation stay healthy. Hell, just look at the past few years when Marcum, McGowan, Litsch among others were out for months, if not full seasons. I'd be worried someone might be injured too.

Having Mills/Rzep is nice but there's a big drop off going from say Romero to Mills.



Well then you have a huge weakness in RF since Bautista can't play both spots (assuming Snider plays LF).



A team going for the playoffs needs to do a lot better than Lewis in the OF.

Edit:



The guys who used the "paper wins" thought that in 2008, the year the Rays eventually would go to the playoffs, that they'd be a playoff team with 90+ wins.

Pretty much took the words right out of my mouth.

Just because the Jays lost X amount of games by one run doesn't mean they're guarenteed to win those games, just as they're not guarenteed to repeat winning the amount of games they won by one run either. It just doesn't work that way.

In addition to the Rays making the playoffs as a "fluke", I could easily argue that they had ten years worth of high pick drafting and development to build up their organization to the playoff team/contender they are now.

Guys, the Jays would have to win at least 95-98 games in order to make the playoffs. That's a huge mountain to climb. I'm serious when I say that the Jays would likely have to sign Lee, Beltre, Soriano, V-Mart, trade for Fielder and probably resign Downs + have the same good health with their rotation in order to make the playoffs next year. Are they moving in the right direction? Yes. Are they there yet? No.

Twitchy
10-20-2010, 08:20 PM
Which also means nothing apart from educated guessing an opinions.... of course, unless there's a crystal ball somewhere that Im unaware of :shrug:

The various projection systems are usually pretty accurate. Obviously they're not 100% guarantees of production, but you shouldn't dismiss them either.


Pretty much took the words right out of my mouth.

In addition to the Rays making the playoffs as a "fluke", I could easily argue that they had ten years worth of high pick drafting and development to build up their organization to the playoff team/contender they are now.

Most of their top 10 picks that were/are first rounders haven't been that helpful in leading them to the playoffs though. Outside of Price and Longoria, most of their first rounders are busts, or played a small role over the season (Niemann, Upton, Garza via Delmon). It helped, but it's not the main reason why. They made some good picks in the later round, they did some good minor league FA signings (Benoit among others) and have made some solid trades to help them get to where they are now.

T.O. Fan
10-20-2010, 08:40 PM
The various projection systems are usually pretty accurate. Obviously they're not 100% guarantees of production, but you shouldn't dismiss them either.



Most of their top 10 picks that were/are first rounders haven't been that helpful in leading them to the playoffs though. Outside of Price and Longoria, most of their first rounders are busts, or played a small role over the season (Niemann, Upton, Garza via Delmon). It helped, but it's not the main reason why. They made some good picks in the later round, they did some good minor league FA signings (Benoit among others) and have made some solid trades to help them get to where they are now.

Definitely.

When you finish at the bottom though you do get a chance at the "better" players in each round. Crawford, Longoria, Upton, Shields, Price, Niemann, Davis, Hellickson, Brignac, Jennings were all drafted and developed by the Rays. The development part is vastly underrated.

My point was that they aren't an overnight sensation. They have tremendous depth that will likely keep them in playoff contention for many years. If Crawford leaves they have Jennings. If Bartlett leaves they have Brignac. if Garza is traded they have Hellickson.

The Jays just don't have that kind of depth. If they deal three guys for someone like Fielder or Grienke they don't have a replacement if anyone of Bautista, Wells, or Romero are out for whatever reason and are able to give the Jays similar quality.

jaysfan4ever
10-20-2010, 09:15 PM
Pretty much took the words right out of my mouth.

Just because the Jays lost X amount of games by one run doesn't mean they're guarenteed to win those games, just as they're not guarenteed to repeat winning the amount of games they won by one run either. It just doesn't work that way.

In addition to the Rays making the playoffs as a "fluke", I could easily argue that they had ten years worth of high pick drafting and development to build up their organization to the playoff team/contender they are now.

Guys, the Jays would have to win at least 95-98 games in order to make the playoffs. That's a huge mountain to climb. I'm serious when I say that the Jays would likely have to sign Lee, Beltre, Soriano, V-Mart, trade for Fielder and probably resign Downs + have the same good health with their rotation in order to make the playoffs next year. Are they moving in the right direction? Yes. Are they there yet? No.

I don't know why people wanna rape the farm for Fielder. 1B is an easy position to fill, just put Lind there. I'd much rather go for Greinke.

How about this as an offseason? We make deals for Kelly Johnson and Greinke, sign Crawford, re-sign Gregg and Camp, and pick up a cheap DH/1B (say Brad Hawpe, Xavier Nady, or Marcus Thames). I wouldn't say that it's a stretch to think we could make the playoffs. We could afford to trade Drabek, Snider, D'Arnaud and Rzepcynski in deals for Greinke and Johnson, because we'd have our OF locked up with Wells, Bautista and Crawford, so we wouldn't miss Snider, plenty of rotation prospects so we wouldn't miss Drabek, and Perez and JPA, so we wouldn't miss D'Arnaud.

Lineup:

Johnson
Crawford
Bautista
Wells
Lind
Hill
LF/DH (Hawpe, Nady, Thames)
Buck
Escobar

Rotation:

Greinke
Romero
Marcum
Cecil
Morrow

Pen:

Gregg
Camp
Janssen
Carlson
Purcey (lefty specialist)
R-Zep/Richmond/Litsch/FA/Mills

2009mvp
10-20-2010, 09:26 PM
^^A mediocre OF with 3 guys on the wrong side of 30 (Crawford's 29, close enough though) and we won't miss Snider? Is it that hard to think beyond 2011?

LechWalesa
10-20-2010, 09:43 PM
I'd much rather have neither Greinke or Fielder because both of them come with more baggage than a 747 and both will only hurt this team's development.

StayOnBoard
10-21-2010, 03:27 PM
The various projection systems are usually pretty accurate. Obviously they're not 100% guarantees of production, but you shouldn't dismiss them either.

Well... of course.

But most "experts" had the Phillies to the world series in a "cake walk" - to me - looks like the Giants are holding their own pretty well.

All Im saying is projections are just that, projections... they really don't mean anything in the grand scheme of things (although I admit, baseball is far easier to "predict" compared to say... the NFL).

My whole point is, we shouldn't just say "well - we won't contend next year" when we haven't even gone through the winter yet. Hell - we were supposed to be in last place by these same "experts". That's why they play the games man....

Twitchy
10-21-2010, 05:01 PM
Well... of course.

But most "experts" had the Phillies to the world series in a "cake walk" - to me - looks like the Giants are holding their own pretty well.

The series isn't over. That being said, the Phillies are a much better team IMO. They're not playing like it though. But that's why nobody in their right mind tries to predict the playoffs with any certainty. Too small a sample. The regular season is a different story.


All Im saying is projections are just that, projections... they really don't mean anything in the grand scheme of things (although I admit, baseball is far easier to "predict" compared to say... the NFL).

I guess that depends on how you look at it. I wouldn't say they're meaningless.


My whole point is, we shouldn't just say "well - we won't contend next year" when we haven't even gone through the winter yet. Hell - we were supposed to be in last place by these same "experts". That's why they play the games man....

I think you're mistaking "experts" and projections. Ken Rosenthal is an "expert", which is different from what I'm talking about which is a projection system like Chone or Marcel to name a few.

town123
10-21-2010, 05:21 PM
Why does everyone insist Bautista is a good defender? He's just not. Better than E5 at third? Marginally (and obviously that's not saying much). Better than Snider in RF? I'm not so sure.

I say Bautista is WAY better than Snider in RF. Gets a far better jump, has a far better arm. As far as 3B goes, marginally better than Carnation Milk.

Phillies4life1
10-21-2010, 05:48 PM
since u guys are talkin alot about Zack G i think hes gonna get traded to the mets and there gonna over pay for him


Wilmer Flores, Bobby Parnell, Fernado Martinez, Kirk Nieuwenhuis for Zack G

jaysfan4ever
10-22-2010, 02:15 PM
^^A mediocre OF with 3 guys on the wrong side of 30 (Crawford's 29, close enough though) and we won't miss Snider? Is it that hard to think beyond 2011?

I was thinking that Bautista would get a 3-year deal or so, but I guess that's not the most probable outcome according to Jordan Bastian.

If Bautista does get re-signed to a long-term deal, we have RF and CF locked up for the future, so we only have LF and DH as spots to fill, which aren't exactly hard.