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View Full Version : Are Stephen Curry and Ty Lawson destined for great things - or...?



DenButsu
10-15-2010, 09:06 PM
Okay, let me start this off by saying that far from asserting anything here, I'm actually questioning the results of all these searches I did more than anything. So please just calm down, I'm not trying to say that these guys are the next Jordan or anything. :cool:

What I'm trying to ask, though, is what does this all mean? When Michael Jordan and Khalid Reeves show some similar rookie season results that they have in common with Ty Lawson and Stephen Curry, does this project well or badly for them - or maybe it projects nothing at all?

Should Nuggets and Warriors fans be expecting great things, or have I set parameters that are too narrow - so narrow that they distort the field of candidates too much to yield meaningful results? Or made other mistakes which would lead to flawed projections?

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I did the following search based on numbers that were slightly lower than Ty Lawson's rookie stats. Just by coincidence, Curry's name kept popping up in the same lists, so I included him in the topic as well.

Please check the links to see the stats laid out more clearly. Even when wrapping tables in code, they come out jumbled (didn't use to, don't know what happened there). I posted the stats here as well so you can at least, at a glance, see the lists of names that popped up.

Here are the results I came up with in various searches for rookie season stats:

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http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&per_minute_base=36&type=advanced&is_playoffs=N&year_min=1947&year_max=2010&season_start=1&season_end=1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&lg_id=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=&qual=&c1stat=per&c1comp=gt&c1val=15&c2stat=ts_pct&c2comp=gt&c2val=.560&c3stat=ast_pct&c3comp=gt&c3val=21&c4stat=mp&c4comp=gt&c4val=1100&order_by=ws

For single seasons, in the regular season, from 1946-47 to 2009-10, in rookie season, requiring
Player Efficiency Rating >= 15 and True Shooting Pct >= .560 and
Assist Pct >= 21 and Minutes Played >= 1100,
sorted by descending Win Shares.


Totals Advanced Shooting
Rk Player Season Age Tm Lg G MP PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48 FG% 3P% FT%
1 Michael Jordan* 1984-85 21 CHI NBA 82 3144 25.8 .592 .518 6.3 13.2 9.8 25.3 3.0 1.3 13.0 29.8 118 107 10.3 3.7 14.0 0.213 .515 .173 .845
2 Magic Johnson* 1979-80 20 LAL NBA 77 2795 20.6 .602 .534 7.1 15.4 11.6 25.2 3.1 0.8 20.9 20.9 113 101 6.2 4.3 10.5 0.180 .530 .226 .810
3 Stephen Curry 2009-10 21 GSW NBA 80 2896 16.3 .568 .535 1.8 12.0 6.8 24.6 2.5 0.5 16.5 21.8 107 111 3.0 1.6 4.6 0.077 .462 .437 .885
4 Ty Lawson 2009-10 22 DEN NBA 65 1316 16.5 .600 .559 3.7 7.1 5.4 24.2 1.8 0.1 15.4 18.0 118 111 2.9 0.9 3.7 0.136 .515 .410 .757
5 Khalid Reeves 1994-95 22 MIA NBA 67 1462 16.9 .561 .515 4.1 11.0 7.5 30.2 2.7 0.5 19.3 20.6 111 109 2.1 1.4 3.5 0.115 .443 .392 .714
6 Spud Webb 1985-86 22 ATL NBA 79 1229 18.5 .578 .485 2.4 8.6 5.5 38.7 3.2 0.2 23.0 23.0 109 105 1.9 1.6 3.5 0.137 .483 .182 .785
7 Gilbert Arenas 2001-02 20 GSW NBA 47 1155 17.0 .562 .504 3.7 8.7 6.1 24.8 3.0 0.6 17.6 20.1 110 108 2.1 0.7 2.7 0.114 .453 .345 .775

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http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&per_minute_base=36&type=advanced&is_playoffs=N&year_min=1947&year_max=2010&season_start=1&season_end=1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&lg_id=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=&qual=&c1stat=per&c1comp=gt&c1val=16&c2stat=pts_per_mp&c2comp=gt&c2val=14&c3stat=ast_per_mp&c3comp=gt&c3val=5&c4stat=mp&c4comp=gt&c4val=1100&order_by=ws

For single seasons, in the regular season, from 1946-47 to 2009-10, in rookie season, requiring
Player Efficiency Rating >= 16 and Points Per 36 Minutes >= 14 and
Assists Per 36 Minutes >= 5 and Minutes Played >= 1100,
sorted by descending Win Shares.


Totals Advanced Shooting Per 36 Minutes
Rk Player Season Age Tm Lg G MP PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48 FG% 3P% FT% PTS AST
1 Michael Jordan* 1984-85 21 CHI NBA 82 3144 25.8 .592 .518 6.3 13.2 9.8 25.3 3.0 1.3 13.0 29.8 118 107 10.3 3.7 14.0 0.213 .515 .173 .845 26.5 5.5
2 Oscar Robertson* 1960-61 22 CIN NBA 71 3032 25.9 .555 .473 13.0 0.2 13.2 0.210 .473 .822 25.7 8.2
3 Magic Johnson* 1979-80 20 LAL NBA 77 2795 20.6 .602 .534 7.1 15.4 11.6 25.2 3.1 0.8 20.9 20.9 113 101 6.2 4.3 10.5 0.180 .530 .226 .810 17.9 7.3
4 Chris Paul 2005-06 20 NOK NBA 78 2808 22.1 .546 .456 2.5 14.8 8.5 38.2 3.4 0.2 13.7 22.2 114 104 6.8 3.6 10.4 0.178 .430 .282 .847 16.1 7.8
5 Calvin Murphy* 1970-71 22 SDR NBA 82 2020 19.4 .532 .458 5.3 24.5 4.9 3.1 8.0 0.191 .458 .820 23.1 5.9
6 Alvan Adams 1975-76 21 PHO NBA 80 2656 21.7 .507 .469 8.9 20.7 14.9 27.2 2.1 2.4 95 3.3 3.9 7.2 0.130 .469 .735 20.6 6.1
7 Charlie Scott 1970-71 22 VIR ABA 84 3185 18.8 .514 .467 6.3 21.1 12.6 28.1 4.4 2.8 7.2 0.109 .463 .246 .746 25.7 5.3
8 Anfernee Hardaway 1993-94 22 ORL NBA 82 3015 17.4 .531 .489 7.2 9.1 8.2 26.6 3.2 1.1 19.1 21.7 107 106 3.8 3.3 7.1 0.112 .466 .267 .742 15.7 6.5
9 Stephen Chubin 1967-68 23 ANA ABA 77 2441 17.9 .522 .416 7.7 22.5 18.8 24.4 6.0 0.9 6.9 0.136 .415 .200 .811 20.6 5.4
10 Steve Francis 1999-00 22 HOU NBA 77 2776 18.4 .543 .493 6.3 10.2 8.3 31.6 2.2 0.7 19.3 25.0 105 107 4.4 2.0 6.4 0.111 .445 .345 .786 18.0 6.6
11 Maurice Stokes* 1955-56 22 ROC NBA 67 2323 22.1 .422 .354 0.2 5.9 6.0 0.125 .354 .714 17.4 5.1
12 Tyreke Evans 2009-10 20 SAC NBA 72 2677 18.2 .529 .473 2.8 13.6 8.1 26.1 2.1 0.7 13.6 26.2 107 110 3.3 2.1 5.4 0.097 .458 .255 .748 19.5 5.6
13 Andre Miller 1999-00 23 CLE NBA 82 2093 17.9 .517 .456 4.5 10.5 7.5 38.7 2.0 0.6 15.8 21.8 107 105 3.5 1.8 5.3 0.122 .449 .204 .774 15.7 8.2
14 LeBron James 2003-04 19 CLE NBA 79 3122 18.3 .488 .438 3.5 11.8 7.6 27.8 2.2 1.3 13.9 28.2 99 104 2.4 2.6 5.1 0.078 .417 .290 .754 19.1 5.4
15 Stephen Curry 2009-10 21 GSW NBA 80 2896 16.3 .568 .535 1.8 12.0 6.8 24.6 2.5 0.5 16.5 21.8 107 111 3.0 1.6 4.6 0.077 .462 .437 .885 17.4 5.9
16 Sherman Douglas 1989-90 23 MIA NBA 81 2470 17.0 .534 .496 3.0 6.3 4.6 37.4 2.8 0.2 18.5 21.7 106 110 2.3 2.1 4.4 0.086 .494 .161 .687 16.8 9.0
17 Damon Stoudamire 1995-96 22 TOR NBA 70 2865 16.7 .528 .485 2.4 9.3 5.8 37.4 1.8 0.5 17.5 23.5 108 115 3.7 0.6 4.3 0.072 .426 .395 .797 16.7 8.2
18 Allen Iverson 1996-97 21 PHI NBA 76 3045 18.0 .513 .467 4.0 7.2 5.6 33.6 2.6 0.6 16.2 28.9 104 112 3.1 1.0 4.1 0.065 .416 .341 .702 21.1 6.7
19 Ty Lawson 2009-10 22 DEN NBA 65 1316 16.5 .600 .559 3.7 7.1 5.4 24.2 1.8 0.1 15.4 18.0 118 111 2.9 0.9 3.7 0.136 .515 .410 .757 14.8 5.6
20 Stephon Marbury 1996-97 19 MIN NBA 67 2324 16.1 .519 .466 2.8 6.6 4.7 38.1 1.5 0.6 17.1 24.2 105 111 2.5 1.2 3.7 0.077 .408 .354 .727 16.4 8.1
Rk Player Season Age Tm Lg G MP PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48 FG% 3P% FT% PTS AST
21 Rod Strickland 1988-89 22 NYK NBA 81 1358 18.0 .539 .484 4.1 9.1 6.5 31.8 3.3 0.1 18.1 23.3 110 107 2.2 1.5 3.7 0.131 .467 .322 .745 19.1 8.5
22 Khalid Reeves 1994-95 22 MIA NBA 67 1462 16.9 .561 .515 4.1 11.0 7.5 30.2 2.7 0.5 19.3 20.6 111 109 2.1 1.4 3.5 0.115 .443 .392 .714 15.2 7.1
23 Spud Webb 1985-86 22 ATL NBA 79 1229 18.5 .578 .485 2.4 8.6 5.5 38.7 3.2 0.2 23.0 23.0 109 105 1.9 1.6 3.5 0.137 .483 .182 .785 18.0 9.9
24 Darren Collison 2009-10 22 NOH NBA 76 2109 16.5 .546 .506 2.2 8.6 5.3 32.9 1.9 0.1 18.9 23.1 105 112 1.9 1.1 2.9 0.067 .477 .400 .851 16.1 7.4
25 Gilbert Arenas 2001-02 20 GSW NBA 47 1155 17.0 .562 .504 3.7 8.7 6.1 24.8 3.0 0.6 17.6 20.1 110 108 2.1 0.7 2.7 0.114 .453 .345 .775 15.9 5.4

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http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&per_minute_base=36&type=advanced&is_playoffs=N&year_min=1947&year_max=2010&season_start=1&season_end=1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&lg_id=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=&qual=&c1stat=&c1comp=lt&c1val=&c2stat=per&c2comp=gt&c2val=16&c3stat=off_rtg&c3comp=gt&c3val=115&c4stat=mp&c4comp=gt&c4val=1100&order_by=ws

For single seasons, in the regular season, from 1946-47 to 2009-10, in rookie season, requiring
Player Efficiency Rating >= 16 and Offensive Rating >= 115 and
Minutes Played >= 1100,
sorted by descending Win Shares.


Totals Advanced Shooting
Rk Player Season Age Tm Lg G MP PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48 FG% 3P% FT%
1 David Robinson* 1989-90 24 SAS NBA 82 3002 26.3 .597 .531 11.7 24.8 18.5 8.7 2.2 6.5 13.3 26.6 116 97 7.9 7.2 15.1 0.241 .531 .000 .732
2 Michael Jordan* 1984-85 21 CHI NBA 82 3144 25.8 .592 .518 6.3 13.2 9.8 25.3 3.0 1.3 13.0 29.8 118 107 10.3 3.7 14.0 0.213 .515 .173 .845
3 David Thompson* 1975-76 21 DNA ABA 83 3101 21.1 .578 .516 7.7 8.8 8.3 13.4 1.9 1.6 11.8 25.3 116 105 9.5 2.9 12.5 0.193 .515 .158 .794
4 Bill Cartwright 1979-80 22 NYK NBA 82 3150 17.9 .608 .547 6.6 18.6 12.6 7.0 0.7 1.7 13.2 20.6 117 108 7.7 2.1 9.7 0.148 .547 .797
5 Larry Johnson 1991-92 22 CHH NBA 82 3047 18.9 .548 .492 11.2 20.7 15.9 13.5 1.3 1.0 10.0 21.2 116 110 6.4 2.5 8.9 0.140 .490 .227 .829
6 Arvydas Sabonis 1995-96 31 POR NBA 73 1735 24.7 .617 .572 9.7 28.8 19.3 13.8 1.9 3.4 15.2 25.5 116 97 4.5 3.9 8.4 0.233 .545 .375 .757
7 Dean Garrett 1996-97 30 MIN NBA 68 1665 17.7 .603 .573 10.7 24.4 17.6 3.8 1.3 4.3 7.0 13.3 126 103 3.7 2.5 6.2 0.179 .573 .696
8 Greg Oden 2008-09 21 POR NBA 61 1314 18.1 .599 .564 15.7 24.5 20.0 3.9 1.1 4.2 16.2 19.3 116 104 2.6 2.0 4.6 0.167 .564 .637
9 Thaddeus Young 2007-08 19 PHI NBA 74 1554 16.5 .570 .545 9.1 14.8 11.9 6.2 2.5 0.4 10.7 17.4 115 106 2.6 2.0 4.5 0.140 .539 .316 .738
10 Ty Lawson 2009-10 22 DEN NBA 65 1316 16.5 .600 .559 3.7 7.1 5.4 24.2 1.8 0.1 15.4 18.0 118 111 2.9 0.9 3.7 0.136 .515 .410 .757
11 Michael Ansley 1989-90 22 ORL NBA 72 1221 17.3 .554 .497 15.7 15.6 15.6 4.8 0.9 0.8 8.1 19.7 120 115 3.0 0.3 3.3 0.129 .497 .722

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http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&per_minute_base=36&type=advanced&is_playoffs=N&year_min=1947&year_max=2010&season_start=1&season_end=1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&lg_id=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=&qual=&c1stat=tov_pct&c1comp=lt&c1val=18&c2stat=ts_pct&c2comp=gt&c2val=.550&c3stat=ast_pct&c3comp=gt&c3val=23&c4stat=mp&c4comp=gt&c4val=1100&order_by=ws

For single seasons, in the regular season, from 1946-47 to 2009-10, in rookie season, requiring
Turnover Pct <= 18 and True Shooting Pct >= .550 and
Assist Pct >= 23 and Minutes Played >= 1100,
sorted by descending Win Shares.


Totals Advanced Shooting
Rk Player Season Age Tm Lg G MP PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48 FG% 3P% FT%
1 Michael Jordan* 1984-85 21 CHI NBA 82 3144 25.8 .592 .518 6.3 13.2 9.8 25.3 3.0 1.3 13.0 29.8 118 107 10.3 3.7 14.0 0.213 .515 .173 .845
2 Stephen Curry 2009-10 21 GSW NBA 80 2896 16.3 .568 .535 1.8 12.0 6.8 24.6 2.5 0.5 16.5 21.8 107 111 3.0 1.6 4.6 0.077 .462 .437 .885
3 Ty Lawson 2009-10 22 DEN NBA 65 1316 16.5 .600 .559 3.7 7.1 5.4 24.2 1.8 0.1 15.4 18.0 118 111 2.9 0.9 3.7 0.136 .515 .410 .757
4 Gilbert Arenas 2001-02 20 GSW NBA 47 1155 17.0 .562 .504 3.7 8.7 6.1 24.8 3.0 0.6 17.6 20.1 110 108 2.1 0.7 2.7 0.114 .453 .345 .775

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