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Jeffy25
10-04-2010, 03:08 AM
How badly is he hurting himself by refusing to DH?

VRP723
10-04-2010, 03:12 AM
Since when to DH's get big money?

He's probably limiting himself to less teams, but he'll probably get just as much money as he would if he DH'ed.

Jeffy25
10-04-2010, 03:22 AM
but not through bidding. Bidding wars allow a player to increase their prices, and limiting the number of teams really does hurt that.

the other nail is that his overall value as a contributor to a team is really hurt by his defensive value.

As a DH, he would be perfect, can hit a ton, but his defense is near last every year.

More-Than-Most
10-04-2010, 03:28 AM
I want Dunn on the Phillies. I would take him at first. Trade Howard to the American league for some prospects and sign dunn and werth with the money we are giving Howard.

Gigantes4Life
10-04-2010, 04:00 AM
I want Dunn on the Phillies. I would take him at first. Trade Howard to the American league for some prospects and sign dunn and werth with the money we are giving Howard.

Too late for that, nobody is going to take one of the worst contracts in baseball.

Should have traded Howard before Lee, but that's in the past.

More-Than-Most
10-04-2010, 04:08 AM
Too late for that, nobody is going to take one of the worst contracts in baseball.

Should have traded Howard before Lee, but that's in the past.

I think the Redsox would or maybe the Angels. Dont get me wrong I like Howard... I would just take Dunn-Werth combo over Howard any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

More-Than-Most
10-04-2010, 04:08 AM
Too late for that, nobody is going to take one of the worst contracts in baseball.

Should have traded Howard before Lee, but that's in the past.

I think the Redsox would or maybe the Angels. Dont get me wrong I like Howard... I would just take Dunn-Werth combo over Howard any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Amaro would never do it anyway Lol.

Jeffy25
10-04-2010, 04:28 AM
I think the Redsox would or maybe the Angels. Dont get me wrong I like Howard... I would just take Dunn-Werth combo over Howard any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Amaro would never do it anyway Lol.

nor would any other baseball exec

bagwell368
10-04-2010, 06:58 AM
How badly is he hurting himself by refusing to DH?

#1. He's got his best OPS+ at either DH or PH indicating he should be able to handle the role.

#2. The last I checked two years ago, he tends to have strong first halves and fade in the 2nd, maybe the fact that he is a giant, and a plodding one at that means he wears down. Less of that at DH. Then there is the spectre of injury by playing in the field.

#3. You, me, and an ever increasing group of baseball fans pay attention to SABR metrics such as WAR. His defense in RF is gigantically bad, in LF merely pitifully bad, at 1B almost acceptably bad. This sort of D kills his WAR not to mention his value to his team.

#4. He's cutting off some of the biggest market teams in the sport.

The Yanks have no place at 1B, and LF is Death Valley - DH or nothing - probably nothing since I forecast AROD is going there.

Boston - perfect landing spot at DH. Possibly in Fenway for a year or two they might let him play LF, but RF in Fenway - hahah. 1B? With Youk or even maybe VMart around?

Baltimore - close to Washington which Dunn seems to like. Great RF porch for him, they have some promising kids, might be time to bring in a couple of high ticket vets to make something happen.

Angels - Always have money.

Detroit - have shed a lot of junk contracts these past two years, he might have the power to overcome that park. Cabrera heading to DH might put an end to that idea.

Chicago - another good landing spot, might even use him at 1B somewhat.

Texas - another launching pad - but a fit in 2011.

Dunn is cutting himself off from 1/2 or more of his market by his "no DH" stance. The man is going to get 4 years at most, and he probably those 4 is what he has. Why he would mess up his final big pay day with ego and pique?

LoveOfTheGame
10-04-2010, 08:06 AM
Adam Dunn isn't hurting himself I don't think. He is limiting his options but there is a team that will pay him for his bat.

Pinstripe pride
10-04-2010, 08:50 AM
i think dunn has done perfectly fine for himself. he's not hurting himself, and its not like he's the worst fielder out there

ShinobiNYC
10-04-2010, 08:55 AM
Yeah he is no Cecil Fielder :p

bagwell368
10-04-2010, 09:12 AM
i think dunn has done perfectly fine for himself. he's not hurting himself, and its not like he's the worst fielder out there

Sure thing. Manny is probably worse, but what is he seven years older?

Dunn is easily year over year the past 10 years one of the 15 worst defensive players in baseball per UZR/150 - and I don't even have to look it up. Since 2005, he's in the worst 5 for sure. What's worse is that he's not playing SS or 3B or 2B, but the 3 easiest positions on the field. His glove his cement and his legs are heavier. 'mon.

RF: -52.6 (105 games)
LF: -11.2 (1011 games)
1B: 14.5 (347 games)

That means for every 150 games he plays he's about 13 runs worse then a replacement level player (80% of a starters worth). If we go back to the start of 2005 and go forward - it is worse I would estimate he's about 20 runs under replacement per 150 games. By eye he seems worse then that.

DaSox_05
10-04-2010, 09:28 AM
Dunn would look very nice in a White Sox uniform.

Uncle Sam
10-04-2010, 09:52 AM
The tigers will offer him 5/75 and he will DH.

Uncle Sam
10-04-2010, 09:54 AM
The tigers have 75 million off their payroll. That should make Dunn forgett about 1B and Washington.

RCarlson85
10-04-2010, 11:37 AM
#1. He's got his best OPS+ at either DH or PH indicating he should be able to handle the role.

#2. The last I checked two years ago, he tends to have strong first halves and fade in the 2nd, maybe the fact that he is a giant, and a plodding one at that means he wears down. Less of that at DH. Then there is the spectre of injury by playing in the field.

#3. You, me, and an ever increasing group of baseball fans pay attention to SABR metrics such as WAR. His defense in RF is gigantically bad, in LF merely pitifully bad, at 1B almost acceptably bad. This sort of D kills his WAR not to mention his value to his team.

#4. He's cutting off some of the biggest market teams in the sport.

The Yanks have no place at 1B, and LF is Death Valley - DH or nothing - probably nothing since I forecast AROD is going there.

Boston - perfect landing spot at DH. Possibly in Fenway for a year or two they might let him play LF, but RF in Fenway - hahah. 1B? With Youk or even maybe VMart around?

Baltimore - close to Washington which Dunn seems to like. Great RF porch for him, they have some promising kids, might be time to bring in a couple of high ticket vets to make something happen.

Angels - Always have money.

Detroit - have shed a lot of junk contracts these past two years, he might have the power to overcome that park. Cabrera heading to DH might put an end to that idea.

Chicago - another good landing spot, might even use him at 1B somewhat.

Texas - another launching pad - but a fit in 2011.

Dunn is cutting himself off from 1/2 or more of his market by his "no DH" stance. The man is going to get 4 years at most, and he probably those 4 is what he has. Why he would mess up his final big pay day with ego and pique?

First off, how much time has Dunn spent as a DH or PH? He has been in the NL his whole career, so he would only have played DH in limited interleague action. How often is he not in the starting lineup? He's missed less than 30 games in his last 7 seasons. Because of his limited time at either position, it's only an assumption that he would be better at DH if he played as much time there.

Secondly, He likes Washington because of the fans, not because of the area. The fans in Washington appreciate him and cheer him and want him back, things he didn't get in Cincy. So it's nothing to do with that area of the country. He just wants to play somewhere where he's appreciated and that's Washington not Baltimore.

Thirdly, why can't he play 1B if he wants to. If it limits the teams he can go to or the contract he can get, so what. If he's fine with that, why should he be ripped for wanting to take less so he can play the field every day? Maybe money is the only thing that's important to him...that's a novel concept.

Jeffy25
10-04-2010, 04:40 PM
[/B]

First off, how much time has Dunn spent as a DH or PH? He has been in the NL his whole career, so he would only have played DH in limited interleague action. How often is he not in the starting lineup? He's missed less than 30 games in his last 7 seasons. Because of his limited time at either position, it's only an assumption that he would be better at DH if he played as much time there.

Secondly, He likes Washington because of the fans, not because of the area. The fans in Washington appreciate him and cheer him and want him back, things he didn't get in Cincy. So it's nothing to do with that area of the country. He just wants to play somewhere where he's appreciated and that's Washington not Baltimore.

Thirdly, why can't he play 1B if he wants to. If it limits the teams he can go to or the contract he can get, so what. If he's fine with that, why should he be ripped for wanting to take less so he can play the field every day? Maybe money is the only thing that's important to him...that's a novel concept.

The issue here is that he HURTS HIS TEAM, not the money...although, that is part of what is being questioned.

Adam Dunn is so awful defensively that it starts to take wins away from the team he is on.

While he has a great bat, his defense is just so awful that eventually he starts to cancel himself out.

C-ross12
10-04-2010, 04:49 PM
#1. He's got his best OPS+ at either DH or PH indicating he should be able to handle the role.

#2. The last I checked two years ago, he tends to have strong first halves and fade in the 2nd, maybe the fact that he is a giant, and a plodding one at that means he wears down. Less of that at DH. Then there is the spectre of injury by playing in the field.

#3. You, me, and an ever increasing group of baseball fans pay attention to SABR metrics such as WAR. His defense in RF is gigantically bad, in LF merely pitifully bad, at 1B almost acceptably bad. This sort of D kills his WAR not to mention his value to his team.

#4. He's cutting off some of the biggest market teams in the sport.

The Yanks have no place at 1B, and LF is Death Valley - DH or nothing - probably nothing since I forecast AROD is going there.

Boston - perfect landing spot at DH. Possibly in Fenway for a year or two they might let him play LF, but RF in Fenway - hahah. 1B? With Youk or even maybe VMart around?

Baltimore - close to Washington which Dunn seems to like. Great RF porch for him, they have some promising kids, might be time to bring in a couple of high ticket vets to make something happen.

Angels - Always have money.

Detroit - have shed a lot of junk contracts these past two years, he might have the power to overcome that park. Cabrera heading to DH might put an end to that idea.

Chicago - another good landing spot, might even use him at 1B somewhat.

Texas - another launching pad - but a fit in 2011.

Dunn is cutting himself off from 1/2 or more of his market by his "no DH" stance. The man is going to get 4 years at most, and he probably those 4 is what he has. Why he would mess up his final big pay day with ego and pique?

All good points, but hes not ultimately hurting himself if he REALLY wants to play the field. Seeing as how Boras isn't his agent, and he doesn't want to DH, I'd say money isn't in the forefront. Money wise he is really hurting himself, but it seems playing the field is very important to him.

dfritz03
10-04-2010, 05:06 PM
I think the Redsox would or maybe the Angels. Dont get me wrong I like Howard... I would just take Dunn-Werth combo over Howard any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Amaro would never do it anyway Lol.

I actually like it, never really thought of that... but I doubt Amaro deals Howard when they inked him to that contract... also they want Dom Brown to start in right even though as of right now, he's not ready to play everyday in the bigs.

Cubsfan365
10-04-2010, 05:11 PM
I think he is coming to the Cubs. Not just a homer pick, but there has been speculation that the Cubs were going to go hard after Dunn if they could afford him. Throw that in with the fact that the Cubs need a new 1B and Dunn has ridiculous career numbers at Wrigley and I like our chances.

pistonsfanomg
10-04-2010, 05:28 PM
The tigers will offer him 5/75 and he will DH.

I'm going to be pissed if this happens.

baseballguy247
10-04-2010, 06:07 PM
Dunn will get the money he wants no matter what league he plays in.

iggypop123
10-04-2010, 06:22 PM
he can just play first, he isnt horrible like ortiz who even at first is pathetic

Jeffy25
10-04-2010, 06:25 PM
he can just play first, he isnt horrible like ortiz who even at first is pathetic

actually, he is worse than Ortiz at first.

t327
10-04-2010, 06:37 PM
You don't just excel at DH. Some players have, but its role you have to be eased into to, and some players don't respond well to being a full-time DH, especially if they're not injured or hurting. Look at Pat Burrell. Terrible as a full time DH but doing well as a bad outfielder/decent hitter.

Rndy
10-04-2010, 06:42 PM
actually, he is worse than Ortiz at first.

Yeah..... No he isn't. If you look at their career at First base he is. But Dunn has such a small sample size and has really improved at first base. At this point in their careers Dunn is a lot better of a defensive player then Ortiz. Not saying much really.

bagwell368
10-04-2010, 06:56 PM
[/B]

First off, how much time has Dunn spent as a DH or PH? He has been in the NL his whole career, so he would only have played DH in limited interleague action. How often is he not in the starting lineup? He's missed less than 30 games in his last 7 seasons. Because of his limited time at either position, it's only an assumption that he would be better at DH if he played as much time there.

Obviously he doesn't have a lot of PA's but over a long period of time he has done well. He has a 153 OPS+ (20 points over his career norm) in 116 PA's. He didn't do worse did he?

In the first half his OPS+ is 140, in the second half it is 126. Hmmm, is that a large enough sample size for you? Does that indicate he wears down?


Secondly, He likes Washington because of the fans, not because of the area. The fans in Washington appreciate him and cheer him and want him back, things he didn't get in Cincy. So it's nothing to do with that area of the country. He just wants to play somewhere where he's appreciated and that's Washington not Baltimore.

Oh sorry. I didn't know that a city that lost the Senators due to poor attendance, and still has meh attendance (1,817,226 in 2009 - 13th out of 16) is so wonderful to its players. Pardon me. But of course you are a townie, so we have to take your words on this topic with a grain of salt or two.


Thirdly, why can't he play 1B if he wants to. If it limits the teams he can go to or the contract he can get, so what. If he's fine with that, why should he be ripped for wanting to take less so he can play the field every day? Maybe money is the only thing that's important to him...that's a novel concept.

I guess you are not that much of Dunn fan. He has said in his own words that he does not like to play 1B.

You must not be much of an observer of Dunn at 1B. Since 2005 when I maintain Dunn's fielding went down the drain Dunn's UZR/150 at 1B per year:

-23.5
-48.4
-35.0
-30.8
-03.4

That is without a doubt the worst 5 year stretch I have ever seen at 1B, by far. Now he doesn't have that many reps over there, but the facts are unchangeable. Just about everybody knows Dunn should be a DH, except Dunn and some scattering of the ill informed.

bagwell368
10-04-2010, 07:04 PM
he can just play first, he isnt horrible like ortiz who even at first is pathetic

From 1997-2006 David Ortiz was a better 1B then Adam Dunn has been in his career. Not even close. Anyone that thinks Dunn will be even functional in the field by age 34 is dreaming.

Burkey3472
10-04-2010, 07:08 PM
Any NL team that gives him a 4 year deal is absolutely ********. He should just go to the AL and DH for the rest of his career.

bagwell368
10-04-2010, 07:08 PM
All good points, but hes not ultimately hurting himself if he REALLY wants to play the field. Seeing as how Boras isn't his agent, and he doesn't want to DH, I'd say money isn't in the forefront. Money wise he is really hurting himself, but it seems playing the field is very important to him.

It hurts his team, it hurts his career numbers, and it drastically cuts down on his prospective bidders. It is conceit and pique. His career will also end earlier if he refuses the DH.

Mell413
10-04-2010, 07:15 PM
I think his defensive problems are slightly exaggerated. This is his first year of playing it full time. He hasn't been a plus defender, but he's been passable. This was the first year he was able to concentrate on playing it full time. I like advanced stats as much as anyone, but I find it hard to believe you can be a -30 at first base.

I think he goes to the Cubs. Yes I'm a Cubs fan, but the players want him there and he likes Hendry. He wanted to be here in 08.

RCarlson85
10-04-2010, 08:01 PM
Obviously he doesn't have a lot of PA's but over a long period of time he has done well. He has a 153 OPS+ (20 points over his career norm) in 116 PA's. He didn't do worse did he?


I guess you are not that much of Dunn fan. He has said in his own words that he does not like to play 1B.

You must not be much of an observer of Dunn at 1B. Since 2005 when I maintain Dunn's fielding went down the drain Dunn's UZR/150 at 1B per year:

-23.5
-48.4
-35.0
-30.8
-03.4

That is without a doubt the worst 5 year stretch I have ever seen at 1B, by far. Now he doesn't have that many reps over there, but the facts are unchangeable. Just about everybody knows Dunn should be a DH, except Dunn and some scattering of the ill informed.


A long period of time has nothing to do with it. How many series would an NL team play in an AL park? 3 or 4 a season, something like that. It has nothing to do with time it has to do with at bats. That limited time playing in an AL park doesn't prove anything. Besides, some players don't play as well at DH after playing in the field on a regular basis.



Here again, you don't know what you're saying. The stats look good, but once again you're going off a small sample size. Here are the number of games Dunn has played at first base in his career:

2002 - 44
2003 - 19
2004 - 10
2005 - 33
2006 - 2
2008 - 19
2009 - 67
2010 - 153

So anyone who's not an idiot could see that it's not really fair to judge Dunn on his play at 1B in the past since he has not played there regularly. This is the first season he got to concentrate solely on learning to play 1B. He has improved since last year when he took over after Nick Johnson was traded. His .990 fielding percentage this year was higher than any other year he played at first base besides 2004 when he played 10 games and made no errors. You admit yourself that he doesn't have many reps at 1B. So that basically makes your whole argument irrelevant. How can someone master a position when they don't play there on a regular basis? THIS WAS HIS FIRST SEASON PLAYING 1B ONLY. Is that clear enough for you?

Also, when did Dunn say he doesn't want to play 1B? I'm not aware of him saying that in the last few years at least. I'd like to see where you got that from.

bagwell368
10-04-2010, 08:16 PM
A long period of time has nothing to do with it. How many series would an NL team play in an AL park? 3 or 4 a season, something like that. It has nothing to do with time it has to do with at bats. That limited time playing in an AL park doesn't prove anything. Besides, some players don't play as well at DH after playing in the field on a regular basis.



Here again, you don't know what you're saying. The stats look good, but once again you're going off a small sample size. Here are the number of games Dunn has played at first base in his career:

2002 - 44
2003 - 19
2004 - 10
2005 - 33
2006 - 2
2008 - 19
2009 - 67
2010 - 153

So anyone who's not an idiot could see that it's not really fair to judge Dunn on his play at 1B in the past since he has not played there regularly. This is the first season he got to concentrate solely on learning to play 1B. He has improved since last year when he took over after Nick Johnson was traded. His .990 fielding percentage this year was higher than any other year he played at first base besides 2004 when he played 10 games and made no errors. You admit yourself that he doesn't have many reps at 1B. So that basically makes your whole argument irrelevant. How can someone master a position when they don't play there on a regular basis? THIS WAS HIS FIRST SEASON PLAYING 1B ONLY. Is that clear enough for you?

Also, when did Dunn say he doesn't want to play 1B? I'm not aware of him saying that in the last few years at least. I'd like to see where you got that from.

And anyone that isn't an idiot can see a 6' 6" 290 lb player of questionable footwork to begin with is never going to be a good or even average 1B. Let's agree to convene here in 5 years and see how he did. I predict a -30 RField - or worse, and a -10.0 UZR/150 - or worse. If his team(s) have a better option then him at 1B and he doesn't move to DH (if available) then he'll hurt his team.

Fielding percentage? Yeah, that's a big stat... 1/4 step range to both sides but he catches the ball. There are 15 year olds that can do that.

153 OPS+ at PH/DH over a course of a career (1.9% of his career PA's - with over 6000 PA's total) with a noted dip between 1st and 2nd half doesn't disprove the argument does it?

Nice try. I'm sure the other 22,000 people that show up the Nationals games, and treat Dunn so well will likewise be impressed.

MetsNats1969
10-04-2010, 08:28 PM
I admit up front to not being a stats guy -- UZR, WAR, whatever. I wish I understood more.

But I read an article by Tom Boswell last week, and I think he is one of the more astute writers on this sport. I've read numerous stories, read the blogs, listened to talk radio all bemoaning Dunn and his defense.

Yet I believe he has maybe 15 or so errors this year (someone can please verify for me). And the article points out his UZR is on the same level as many of the players the fans want to replace the big guy. And he has better offensive stats than many of those same players. If one of you experts want to pull up all 1B fielding stats for the NL and AL, that would be great and helpful.

He can hit well in a line-up that had him surounded by Zimmerman and Willingham. Desmond and Espinosa show pop, and both of their defensive numbers are bound to improve in 2011.

And Dunn is still learning the position. Tell me his UZR's are where they are after he's been playing first for ten, fifteen years? OK, that's not right. But he's only switched to the position over the last two years. And he's committed himself to learning and improving on his defense.

Does he cost half-a-run per game? I don't know. HAs he made bonehead plays? I've seen him do it. But how many wins has he produced? Probably many more than he has cost. He's good in the clubhouse, is a big hitter who -- and this is important -- WANTS TO STAY IN DC AND PLAY FOR THE NATS. Texieria didn't want DC. Other big name first baseman are linig up to play DC. Tyler Moore, the Nats' minor league player of the year is not ready to assume the role, nor is Chris Marrero.

Focus on the stats is fine and important. Until it blinds you to a position that dictates bad choices and takes out the human aspect.

Sing Dunn. Three years or four. He know's he will not get Howard or Pujols dollars. He's worth it the huge risk the stats folks seem to project.

NCBoSoxfan21
10-04-2010, 09:11 PM
I think the Redsox would or maybe the Angels. Dont get me wrong I like Howard... I would just take Dunn-Werth combo over Howard any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Why would the Red Sox take on Howard?

1. Youk is vastly superior to Howard
2. Where's Howard to play? Are we gonna pay Howard 20M++ a year to DH? NO ****ING WAY. We could slide Youk over, but we're most likely gonna re-sign Beltre for 1/3 the money of Howard and 95% of the production.


As for the Angels... where would he play there. Kendry Morales has been hurt, but is a young, cheap and so far has proven to have the ability as a premier 1B. He might, also, be better than Howard.

Hero93
10-04-2010, 09:39 PM
he will stay a nat imo

RCarlson85
10-04-2010, 09:44 PM
I admit up front to not being a stats guy -- UZR, WAR, whatever. I wish I understood more.

But I read an article by Tom Boswell last week, and I think he is one of the more astute writers on this sport. I've read numerous stories, read the blogs, listened to talk radio all bemoaning Dunn and his defense.

Yet I believe he has maybe 15 or so errors this year (someone can please verify for me). And the article points out his UZR is on the same level as many of the players the fans want to replace the big guy. And he has better offensive stats than many of those same players. If one of you experts want to pull up all 1B fielding stats for the NL and AL, that would be great and helpful.

He can hit well in a line-up that had him surounded by Zimmerman and Willingham. Desmond and Espinosa show pop, and both of their defensive numbers are bound to improve in 2011.

And Dunn is still learning the position. Tell me his UZR's are where they are after he's been playing first for ten, fifteen years? OK, that's not right. But he's only switched to the position over the last two years. And he's committed himself to learning and improving on his defense.

Does he cost half-a-run per game? I don't know. HAs he made bonehead plays? I've seen him do it. But how many wins has he produced? Probably many more than he has cost. He's good in the clubhouse, is a big hitter who -- and this is important -- WANTS TO STAY IN DC AND PLAY FOR THE NATS. Texieria didn't want DC. Other big name first baseman are linig up to play DC. Tyler Moore, the Nats' minor league player of the year is not ready to assume the role, nor is Chris Marrero.

Focus on the stats is fine and important. Until it blinds you to a position that dictates bad choices and takes out the human aspect.

Sing Dunn. Three years or four. He know's he will not get Howard or Pujols dollars. He's worth it the huge risk the stats folks seem to project.

Wow, it's nice to find someone else reasonable on here who really sees the big picture. I just don't see how people can't understand that this was his 1st season at 1B. Who is going to have a position completely mastered with only 1 full season at that position? He's never going to be perfect, but he has improved since last season and his offensive numbers are as good as ever. The biggest thing is that he's committed to Washington and wants a new deal. He's also committed to getting better at 1B. I don't care what anyone else says, but I will take the errors and "below average" defense at first when it comes with what he brings to the table offensively.

RCarlson85
10-04-2010, 09:52 PM
And anyone that isn't an idiot can see a 6' 6" 290 lb player of questionable footwork to begin with is never going to be a good or even average 1B. Let's agree to convene here in 5 years and see how he did. I predict a -30 RField - or worse, and a -10.0 UZR/150 - or worse. If his team(s) have a better option then him at 1B and he doesn't move to DH (if available) then he'll hurt his team.

Fielding percentage? Yeah, that's a big stat... 1/4 step range to both sides but he catches the ball. There are 15 year olds that can do that.

153 OPS+ at PH/DH over a course of a career (1.9% of his career PA's - with over 6000 PA's total) with a noted dip between 1st and 2nd half doesn't disprove the argument does it?

Nice try. I'm sure the other 22,000 people that show up the Nationals games, and treat Dunn so well will likewise be impressed.


Yeah Dunn is the only big guy that has ever played first base. Come on now. All I know is that Dunn will improve the more he plays at first. I don't expect him to ever win a gold glove or even be above average at first, but I'm willing to deal with his defense if it means his bat is in the lineup.

I liked your comment about 15 year olds who field as good as Dunn. I'd like to see the 15 year olds who can hit a ball like him.

Are you really trying to claim that a sample size of less than 2% really proves anything? That's pretty weak. You just need to give up. You're obviously never going to convince me and I'm never going to convince you so this is all just a waste of time.

bagwell368
10-05-2010, 12:13 AM
Yeah Dunn is the only big guy that has ever played first base. Come on now. All I know is that Dunn will improve the more he plays at first. I don't expect him to ever win a gold glove or even be above average at first, but I'm willing to deal with his defense if it means his bat is in the lineup.

I liked your comment about 15 year olds who field as good as Dunn. I'd like to see the 15 year olds who can hit a ball like him.

Are you really trying to claim that a sample size of less than 2% really proves anything? That's pretty weak. You just need to give up. You're obviously never going to convince me and I'm never going to convince you so this is all just a waste of time.

All you know is Dunn will improve at 1B? So, age and decline mean nothing? The fact is in the history of MLB, players that weigh over 250 lbs decline faster as hitters and fielders then ones that are not. Are you unaware of this, or just choose not to address it because it undercuts your position?

Even though you yourself cited Dunn's games at 1B in previous seasons, somehow in the past few hours this has morphed for you and your friend into Dunn only getting too 1B recently? He played:

44 games there in 2002
19 in 2003
33 in 2005
19 games in 2008
67 games in 2009
12 other games in two other years

and he stunk in each of those years - do the math - more then a full season. Someone like you should know that UZR/150 numbers usually need to be taken 3 years at a time to be sure they are representative of the players skill. This is according to the people that invented the metric. So for you or anyone to claim his numbers that are only mildly negative in this one year forecast his future results are laughable - or have an obvious agenda.

I Coach AAU teams and have a son playing in college as a two way player - SP and 1B, and I have seen hundreds of 1B at those levels that crunch Dunn. Since I was addressing fielding, what does hitting have to do with anything? Dunn is an oaf in the field based on what I have seen of him, and of others - even non professionals.

Trying to claim? Yes, I am claiming that 1.9% of Dunn's career PA's indicate that he would do fine at DH. Is it a 100% slam dunk - no - but it is suggestive. Highly suggestive. I'm also claiming that his first/second half splits (why haven't you addressed that yet?) indicate that he fades in notable way in the 2nd half. Along with DH being his best hitting position this also seems to indicate that he would do better as a DH then a fielder in terms of his hitting.

Give up? You went personal first, you want to walk away, go ahead. I get last ups.

Jeffy25
10-05-2010, 12:18 AM
From 1997-2006 David Ortiz was a better 1B then Adam Dunn has been in his career. Not even close. Anyone that thinks Dunn will be even functional in the field by age 34 is dreaming.

Thank you

Jeffy25
10-05-2010, 12:25 AM
bagwell wins

bagwell368
10-05-2010, 12:30 AM
his offensive numbers are as good as ever.

Dunn's walk ratio went down to its worst since his rookie year.

Dunn's OBP is the worst it's been since 2003.

Dunn's K rates are also slightly worse then ever before.

Signs of slippage? Not clear yet, but his numbers are not as good as ever.

Perception
10-05-2010, 12:36 AM
He needs to DH.

RCarlson85
10-05-2010, 12:44 AM
All you know is Dunn will improve at 1B? So, age and decline mean nothing? The fact is in the history of MLB, players that weigh over 250 lbs decline faster as hitters and fielders then ones that are not.

Even though you yourself cited Dunn's games at 1B in previous seasons, somehow in the past few hours this has morphed for you and your friend into Dunn only getting to 1B recently? He played:

44 games there in 2002
19 in 2003
33 in 2005
19 games in 2008
67 games in 2009
12 other games in two other years

and he stunk in each of those years - do the math - more then a full season. Someone like you should know that UZR/150 numbers usually need to be taken 3 years at a time to be sure they are representative of the players skill. So for you or anyone to claim his numbers that are only mildly negative in this one year forecast his future results are laughable.

I Coach AAU teams and have a son staring in college as a two way player - SP and 1B, and I have seen hundreds of 1B at those levels that crunch Dunn. Since I was addressing fielding, what does hitting have to do with anything?

Trying to claim? Yes, I am claiming that 1.9% of Dunn's career PA's indicate that he would do fine at DH, I'm also claiming that his first/second half splits (why haven't you addressed that yet?) indicate that he fades in notable way in the 2nd half - perhaps also indicating that he would do better as a DH then a fielder in terms of his hitting.

Give up? To some zit faced teenager? You wish.

Oh man, a coach and a father, I'm really impressed now. After hearing that I give up, you win.

I did not say that Dunn never played first before this season. I said this was the first season that he played first base exclusively. There's a big difference there. He played first base in 194 games in his whole career before this season and basically 160 this year alone. Someone who plays mostly outfield and plays a little first base now and then is not the same as someone who plays 1B only. In the past Dunn would be focusing on playing the outfield since that was where he played most of the time. Now he is able to focus only on playing 1B. If you can't realize the difference between playing only 1B and playing OF while subbing at first base once in awhile you're an idiot.

What does hitting have to do with anything? All you want to talk about is how bad of a defensive player Dunn is. You fail to recognize what he brings to the table offensively that makes him worth having in the lineup in spite of his defensive abilities.

Just so you know I'm 25 and married. I like how you act like you know me though. If you want to assume that I'm a "zit faced teenager" then I'm going to assume that you're an old, fat, bald guy who is living out his dream of playing baseball through his son.

I'm not sure why you have such a hatred toward Dunn, but you need to get over it.

RCarlson85
10-05-2010, 01:01 AM
Dunn's walk ratio went down to its worst since his rookie year.

Dunn's OBP is the worst it's been since 2003.

Dunn's K rates are also slightly worse then ever before.

Signs of slippage? Not clear yet, but his numbers are not as good as ever.

I like how you fail to mention that:

1. His HR and RBI numbers are as high as ever, just like they are every year
2. His AVG the past 2 seasons has been higher than all the other years of his career except for 2.
3. His SLG this year was the highest it's been since 2007
4. He hit a career high in doubles this year
5. He scored the most runs in a season since 2007

Yeah I agree he's definitely declining.

Jeffy25
10-05-2010, 01:12 AM
I like how you fail to mention that:

1. His HR and RBI numbers are as high as ever, just like they are every year
2. His AVG the past 2 seasons has been higher than all the other years of his career except for 2.
3. His SLG this year was the highest it's been since 2007
4. He hit a career high in doubles this year
5. He scored the most runs in a season since 2007

Yeah I agree he's definitely declining.

you mean same number of homers in similar plate appearances while walking 40 times less and striking out 20 times more?

I am not going to say he is declining offensively, because he really isn't, although his on base was down big time this year.

But his defense is awful, and it is going to continue to get worse....he is an offensive force, and a defensive liability...almost so much so that he almost eliminates his value because he plays defense...

if he were to DH, his overall value to a club would be a ton more

Jeffy25
10-05-2010, 01:15 AM
Oh man, a coach and a father, I'm really impressed now. After hearing that I give up, you win.

I did not say that Dunn never played first before this season. I said this was the first season that he played first base exclusively. There's a big difference there. He played first base in 194 games in his whole career before this season and basically 160 this year alone. Someone who plays mostly outfield and plays a little first base now and then is not the same as someone who plays 1B only. In the past Dunn would be focusing on playing the outfield since that was where he played most of the time. Now he is able to focus only on playing 1B. If you can't realize the difference between playing only 1B and playing OF while subbing at first base once in awhile you're an idiot.

What does hitting have to do with anything? All you want to talk about is how bad of a defensive player Dunn is. You fail to recognize what he brings to the table offensively that makes him worth having in the lineup in spite of his defensive abilities.

Just so you know I'm 25 and married. I like how you act like you know me though. If you want to assume that I'm a "zit faced teenager" then I'm going to assume that you're an old, fat, bald guy who is living out his dream of playing baseball through his son.

I'm not sure why you have such a hatred toward Dunn, but you need to get over it.

He has played first base since 02, while playing the outfield still quite a bit.

Your defense was that this was his first full season playing first, and that is a defense against his needing to develop there.

If a guy has been playing first base for 9 years, and his ninth season is the first year where he can 'develop' at that position, then he is one slow *** learner.

Fact is, Dunn is already awful defensively, and his body and age are going to head in the direction of getting much much worse....if he would be willing to open himself up on his last big payday to playing DH, he would hold a lot more value for his team, and himself.

hgtiger32
10-05-2010, 01:24 AM
i wouldn't be surprised if Brewers trade Prince and then give Dunn a 2 year deal...

Jeffy25
10-05-2010, 01:41 AM
I like how you fail to mention that:

1. His HR and RBI numbers are as high as ever, just like they are every year
2. His AVG the past 2 seasons has been higher than all the other years of his career except for 2.
3. His SLG this year was the highest it's been since 2007
4. He hit a career high in doubles this year
5. He scored the most runs in a season since 2007

Yeah I agree he's definitely declining.

And just to say one thing, OBP is the most superior stat of all the points that you just made....having a high obp is incredibly valuable as an offensive ball player, easily the most valuable thing. And if Dunn is showing signs that he isn't going to walk as much anymore, it could be a very bad sign of things to come. (although, I personally doubt it has anything more than the lineup he was in.)

RTL
10-05-2010, 09:18 AM
If Dunn wants to get the money and years he wants, he will have to be a DH. There is a reason he could only find a two year, $20 million deal and that's because he had to play defense. He can get more, oddly enough, if he will just DH. That said, if I'm the Nats, I re-sign Dunn because the fan base knows him and likes him. If I'm the Mariners, I overpay like a mother ****er to try and get him to DH because they are just awful offensively. I still laugh at the experts that picked them to finish atop the West.

Jeffy25
10-05-2010, 11:54 AM
If Dunn wants to get the money and years he wants, he will have to be a DH. There is a reason he could only find a two year, $20 million deal and that's because he had to play defense. He can get more, oddly enough, if he will just DH. That said, if I'm the Nats, I re-sign Dunn because the fan base knows him and likes him. If I'm the Mariners, I overpay like a mother ****er to try and get him to DH because they are just awful offensively. I still laugh at the experts that picked them to finish atop the West.

I can proudly say that I thought the Rangers would surprise, but I didn't have them getting 90 wins, I figured they would win it with like 85 wins, with the M's getting like 83....so my prediction may have had the Rangers winning, but I was no where near picking either team to do what they did....the lack of a superior offensive player in the middle of the M's lineup just absolutely killed them.

If you have Lee and King Felix starting 40% of your games, you better be at least a .500 ball club

RTL
10-05-2010, 12:21 PM
I had the M's finishing last but not doing as bad as they did. I knew the Rangers would win but I had them barely beating out the Angels. Kendry going down pretty much killed the Angles chances at the West. I was really high on the A's pitching and thought their staff would do better than the M's and since both offenses sucked, I chose the team with the best overall staff.