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arkanian215
09-24-2010, 03:04 PM
I've never been a big fan of his game. I only watch him play 3-4 times a season so maybe I don't have a strong grasp of what his game is about. But lets look at him from the statistical pov. What makes him the Top 5 or Top 10 NBA player that many PSDers claim he is.

For small forwards who play 30+ minutes per game, 40+ games per season, Melo:
Is an above average scorer per game
Gets to the line more frequently than average
Is a very good offensive rebounder
Is a below average defensive rebounder
Is below average in eFG% and TS%
But is well below average in terms of being assisted on his FGM
Is above average in terms of getting his shots blocked (that's a bad thing)
Above average in converted And1 opportunities
Above average in FTA/FGA
Below average at rim and 10 ft and in, in terms of FG%
But he gets about 8 attempts at the rim per game, About 40.8% of all shots come at the rim
He's above average in terms of efficiency from 10-23 ft.

I guess what I'm trying to get at, taking into account the lack of great efficiency from him, is he the kind of player PSD makes him out to be?

Hustla23
09-24-2010, 03:54 PM
You don't have to look far beyond his lackluster offensive win shares totals to conclude that he is not an elite player.

arkanian215
09-24-2010, 07:03 PM
So say he's not the prolific scorer that folks claim he is and is just a combination of a quality isolation player who takes a lot of shots, where does he rank based on his stats, among small forwards and overall?

abe_froman
09-24-2010, 07:10 PM
I've never been a big fan of his game. I only watch him play 3-4 times a season so maybe I don't have a strong grasp of what his game is about. But lets look at him from the statistical pov. What makes him the Top 5 or Top 10 NBA player that many PSDers claim he is.

For small forwards who play 30+ minutes per game, 40+ games per season, Melo:
Is an above average scorer per game
Gets to the line more frequently than average
Is a very good offensive rebounder
Is a below average defensive rebounder
Is below average in eFG% and TS%
But is well below average in terms of being assisted on his FGM
Is above average in terms of getting his shots blocked (that's a bad thing)
Above average in converted And1 opportunities
Above average in FTA/FGA
Below average at rim and 10 ft and in, in terms of FG%
But he gets about 8 attempts at the rim per game, About 40.8% of all shots come at the rim
He's above average in terms of efficiency from 10-23 ft.

I guess what I'm trying to get at, taking into account the lack of great efficiency from him, is he the kind of player PSD makes him out to be?
no he isnt

psder's were wowed by ppg,the hype/marketing aspect to him,and he's availability(those on the block,are rumored to go to a big market usually get a bump in love/rating by their fanbase)

this isnt to say that he is a bad player,he isnt...but not what people are/were making him out to be

Hustla23
09-24-2010, 07:26 PM
I'd rank him somewhere within the 11-15 range in the entire league.

Hawkeye15
09-24-2010, 09:01 PM
Carmelo Anthony has averaged 20 points per game every season since he arrived in the NBA. This past campaign, he became the third-youngest player ever to reach the 10,000-point plateau, behind only Kobe Bryant and LeBron James. And next summer, he could hit the open market as an unrestricted free agent.

But despite all those gaudy point totals, the three-time All-Star may not even be worth the max deal a team would likely give him in 2011.


At first glance, Anthony seems like a member of the NBA's elite, largely due to his scoring prowess. But a deeper look at the points column and elsewhere in his game reveals a player who lives on an undeserved reputation more than his actual impact on wins.

It's tough to argue with his 28.2 points-per-game average in '09-10, but in the game of basketball, how a shooter gets his points is more meaningful than the raw number itself. To see that, we need to peel back the layers.

Let's first talk about Anthony's shot volume. It's not exactly a secret that 'Melo likes to shoot the rock, but his propensity to launch shots may raise some eyebrows. This past season, no player in the NBA took more shots per minute than Anthony -- not Kobe, not LeBron, not even scoring champ Kevin Durant.

It may seem obvious that a player worthy of 20 shots per game would have a healthy conversion rate. But in Anthony's case, that's far from the truth. Anthony, in reality, had a below-average field goal percentage (.458) this past season -- and his career percentage (.459) is no different. (The league average is .463.)

The sharp readers out there will point out that traditional field goal percentage doesn't reflect Anthony's shooting ability, since he launches a healthy dose of 3-pointers, which obviously count more on the scoreboard. That's true. But if you've been paying attention, you know Anthony is not a good shooter from beyond the arc, so that doesn't help his case. As a career .308 percent 3-point shooter, his shot from downtown ranks far below the norm (the average small forward shot .349 last season; Melo shot .316) and any progress he seemingly made in 2008-09, when he shot a career-high .371, disappeared. Even if we incorporate the added point bonus of a 3-pointer, the Syracuse product's shooting percentages are, at best, average.

It seems that, anyway we slice it, Anthony is a gunner at the core. His exceptional skill on offense is his ability to get his shot off, whether it's attacking the rim or through a patented pull-up jumper on the perimeter. But interestingly enough, Anthony got his shot blocked a whopping 109 times last season, which ranks as the second-highest total in the league, according to Hoopdata.com. Evidently, he doesn't lack perseverance.

Anthony's case illustrates a fundamental problem in conventional basketball analysis: scoring averages don't reflect efficiency. It's true that Anthony scored 28.2 points per game last season, but it's also true that no player missed more shots as often as Anthony did. Feel free to credit his skill but also pay attention his lofty shot volume and playing time.

And that's before we consider the disguise of team pace. Since Anthony entered the league, the Denver Nuggets have averaged 95.9 possessions per game, which places them as the third -fastest squad in the NBA over that period of time (and just a fraction behind the high-octane Phoenix Suns). Over that same span, the Nuggets have squeezed out an extra four possessions per game when compared to the average NBA team. Do the math, and the Nuggets have enjoyed nearly 2,000 extra possessions above the norm since Anthony joined the NBA. That's a ton of extra opportunities that can pad the per-game stats used as measuring sticks.

So after stripping out the inflationary effect of fast pace and boiling down Anthony's numbers to a per possession level, his scoring punch looks even more pedestrian. How pedestrian? Anthony's career offensive rating, an efficiency measure that calculates how many points a player produces per 100 possessions he uses, checks out at 107, which sits right at the league average. For reference, 2003 draft-mates James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh have earned 114, 111, and 113 lifetime offensive ratings, respectively.

Before we prematurely call Anthony an average player, there is something to be said for the burden of trust. Not every player can still perform while shouldering the heavy scoring responsibility that Anthony has endured. But the Nuggets have probably allowed Anthony to shoot far too often if efficiency -- and winning -- is their goal. In fact, last season Melo was only sixth on his own team in ORtg (110), trailing far behind other legit weapons like Nene (124), Chauncey Billups (120) and Ty Lawson (118).

Aside from scoring, Anthony doesn't have many other bankable weapons as a player. His rebounding (career 6.2 rpg) is only slightly better than what we'd expect from a small forward, and he doesn't create opportunities for his teammates like Paul Pierce, Wade and James can. Furthermore, he hasn't shown the intensity and dedication on the defensive end that you'd want from a max player.

In the end, Anthony's game demonstrates why it's important to strip away the biases that color our perceptions of elite players. In Anthony's case, the excessive shot volume, his team's stat-padding tempo and the lack of a true 3-point game makes his 28.2 ppg seem far less impressive than his sparkling reputation would suggest.

If anything, it's time we moved on from per-game statistics to evaluate our players. Millions of dollars are wasted every year basing player value on the archaic statistics that teams used half a century ago. And someone will surely overpay Anthony and offer him a max contract -- just look at the deals Joe Johnson and Rudy Gay got

Hawkeye15
09-24-2010, 09:02 PM
Melo is a top 15 player. But to reward him as a top 5-7 player, ie, the elite, is wrong. It goes to show that most of PSD, and media and fans in general, refuse to factor in pace, attempts per possession/minute, and overall inefficiency

arkanian215
09-24-2010, 09:05 PM
Melo is a top 15 player. But to reward him as a top 5-7 player, ie, the elite, is wrong. It goes to show that most of PSD, and media and fans in general, refuse to factor in pace, attempts per possession/minute, and overall inefficiency

I wonder if Milton Lee factored any of this into his stats analysis to Billy King as he's trying to pull the strings. Right now, the deal looks terrible long term for the Nets, unless they have something lined up.

He's still a top 3 SF imo but nothing tells me he's worth Devin Harris and Derrick Favors or that $65 million.

Hawkeye15
09-24-2010, 09:08 PM
I wonder if Milton Lee factored any of this into his stats analysis to Billy King as he's trying to pull the strings. Right now, the deal looks terrible long term for the Nets, unless they have something lined up.

He's still a top 3 SF imo but nothing tells me he's worth Devin Harris and Derrick Favors or that $65 million.

The Nets are not getting the better end of that deal. Granted, Favors hasn't proven anything, is a year or two off. But he will be the best player from this draft imo. Harris had a down year, how easily they forget how great of an all the ball defender he is, with some offense.
The Nets should be able to recruit some help with this move, but man, I hate that move for the Nets long term

arkanian215
09-24-2010, 09:16 PM
The Nets are not getting the better end of that deal. Granted, Favors hasn't proven anything, is a year or two off. But he will be the best player from this draft imo. Harris had a down year, how easily they forget how great of an all the ball defender he is, with some offense.
The Nets should be able to recruit some help with this move, but man, I hate that move for the Nets long term

The Nets better pray they're in a favorable situation cap wise the next two offseason b/c I don't see them adding anything significant through the draft. They have to pursue a better PG or PF next offseason cuz it won't be possible in 2012 with Brook Lopez's cap hold (assuming the CBA works in a similar way). Heck, they might not even have a good chance to improve next offseason. This is hugely disappointing.

Now this move makes the Travis Outlaw signing 100 times worse than it already was.

Anyway, going back to a statistics base for this argument. Harris was very inefficient from the field. Even in his coming out year, he wasn't very efficient. Favors projected to be an above average finisher at the rim with an average jumpshot for a PF and above average rebounder. He also looks to be a top tier defender at the PF position. Trade that for a guy who can get his own shot (relatively low ast% on his shots) and high tendency to get to the line, it looks fairly ok. I just don't know how to judge Melo's defense from stats alone.

Hawkeye15
09-24-2010, 09:27 PM
defense is very difficult to justify stat wise.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/harride01.html

Harris had a down year, and I hope his injury trend doesn't continue. If he gets traded, and continues to be hurt, then its fine. But Melo will offer enough to give the Nets 45 wins as currently constructed, once filled out. Then you lose draft pick after draft pick, position wise.

Statistically speaking, Favors could be Amare, without an outside game, by year 3. I think he will be an efficient, Landry type by year 2

Patman
09-25-2010, 08:08 AM
Hm nice analysis of Melo never thought he was in the absolut top, but his PerGame number especially his PPG look good, so most of the media and Fans will tell you how elite the guy is.

And yeah the Nets deal doesn't look that good, but on the other hand Harris was injured and i didn't buy the hype around him before the injury, but honestly i didn't watch him much so i can be wrong. Favors will have to prove himself and again i don't watch college so i can't really project what he will be like.
But did any one see the thread in the main forum where some Knicks fans would gut their rooster completely for Melo... thats crazy.

lakers4sho
09-25-2010, 10:37 AM
Honestly I never thought Carmelo was an elite player (by elite meaning the LeBron, Wade, Kobe, Durant category). His offensive efficiency has always been pedestrian, inflated by George Karl's system.

Hawkeyes15's post pretty much sums everything up.

faze38
09-25-2010, 11:16 AM
I think most of you guys look way to deep into the stats! Since we are having this conversation about Melo let's ask the same question about Kobe who is one step below Melo in every stat! Kobe is considered the best or 2nd best player in the world and is less efficient then Melo. That is what the stats say regardless how many more shoots Melo takes then Kobe. The thing that makes me laugh is how people really fall in to this belief that PER and APER and FG% actually show u what a player does on the court. When Melo touches the ball whole teams shift to guard one man, now what actually hurts his game is the fact that he tends to take the ball up on the whole team rather than drawing two and dishing the rock. I think to many of you guys look at stats and say Melo is only a top 15 player even though he is top 10 in most of the stats except for efficiency! The man is a complete problem so rather then getting on the computer and seeing stats why don't u spend some money get the NBA package and watch the man play because if u do watch him it is very easy to see that he is a top 5 player even better then that why don't u look up a few of his games against Lebron and watch him duke it out with the man and find ways to beat him a majority of the times! Isn't that funny that a none "top 10 player" finds a way to beat the "best player in the world" on the regular. If we would base everything a man brings to the game of basketball on stats then I guess AI would just be a chucker that didn't prove little men can dominate the game of basketball! I also guess that according to these people that base players production on these dumb stats that Kobe isn't one of the best players of all-time cause he doesn't have the best FG%, EFF, PER or APER stats! One more thing I would like to bring up next time u look at these stats and see Lebron's stats and say thats what makes the man the best player on the planet keep in mind that even with those godley stats he has 0 rings and when it comes down to it next year Kobe is still gonna find a way to beat him even with him following D-Wade home like a lost puppy! The one thing that most people forget to account for in peoples game is time. Some day in the near future Lebron will have a fall from grace when he loses he's speed and jumping ability, Melo on the other hand will maintain a steady production due to the fact that he is a pure scorer that shoots well and is lot more crafty then quick!

lakers4sho
09-25-2010, 11:44 AM
Melo's claim to fame has always been his supposed offensive prowess, but looking deeper into his offensive numbers, efficiency, and such, we see these numbers say otherwise.


When Melo touches the ball whole teams shift to guard one man, now what actually hurts his game is the fact that he tends to take the ball up on the whole team rather than drawing two and dishing the rock.

Then that should hurt him, shouldn't it?

arkanian215
09-25-2010, 12:28 PM
I think most of you guys look way to deep into the stats! Since we are having this conversation about Melo let's ask the same question about Kobe who is one step below Melo in every stat! Kobe is considered the best or 2nd best player in the world and is less efficient then Melo. That is what the stats say regardless how many more shoots Melo takes then Kobe. The thing that makes me laugh is how people really fall in to this belief that PER and APER and FG% actually show u what a player does on the court. When Melo touches the ball whole teams shift to guard one man, now what actually hurts his game is the fact that he tends to take the ball up on the whole team rather than drawing two and dishing the rock. I think to many of you guys look at stats and say Melo is only a top 15 player even though he is top 10 in most of the stats except for efficiency! The man is a complete problem so rather then getting on the computer and seeing stats why don't u spend some money get the NBA package and watch the man play because if u do watch him it is very easy to see that he is a top 5 player even better then that why don't u look up a few of his games against Lebron and watch him duke it out with the man and find ways to beat him a majority of the times! Isn't that funny that a none "top 10 player" finds a way to beat the "best player in the world" on the regular. If we would base everything a man brings to the game of basketball on stats then I guess AI would just be a chucker that didn't prove little men can dominate the game of basketball! I also guess that according to these people that base players production on these dumb stats that Kobe isn't one of the best players of all-time cause he doesn't have the best FG%, EFF, PER or APER stats! One more thing I would like to bring up next time u look at these stats and see Lebron's stats and say thats what makes the man the best player on the planet keep in mind that even with those godley stats he has 0 rings and when it comes down to it next year Kobe is still gonna find a way to beat him even with him following D-Wade home like a lost puppy! The one thing that most people forget to account for in peoples game is time. Some day in the near future Lebron will have a fall from grace when he loses he's speed and jumping ability, Melo on the other hand will maintain a steady production due to the fact that he is a pure scorer that shoots well and is lot more crafty then quick!

In case you didn't notice, this is a basketball stats forum. We try to stay away from the "watch the game" argument because it holds no weight stats wise. Unlike your brain, the stats account for every miss as well as every make.

The point of looking at scoring efficiency is because when the player takes as many shots as he does per game, he needs to make his shots at a good rate (taking a couple of other factors into account as well). Otherwise, what is he?

I don't think any of us are saying he's a terrible player. The stats say that despite the high point totals, he isn't very efficient shooting in the situations he's in. What good is a high point total if your TS% or eFG% is below average for a player who plays as many minutes as you do?

Patman
09-25-2010, 02:43 PM
I think most of you guys look way to deep into the stats! Since we are having this conversation about Melo let's ask the same question about Kobe who is one step below Melo in every stat! Kobe is considered the best or 2nd best player in the world and is less efficient then Melo. That is what the stats say regardless how many more shoots Melo takes then Kobe. The thing that makes me laugh is how people really fall in to this belief that PER and APER and FG% actually show u what a player does on the court. When Melo touches the ball whole teams shift to guard one man, now what actually hurts his game is the fact that he tends to take the ball up on the whole team rather than drawing two and dishing the rock. I think to many of you guys look at stats and say Melo is only a top 15 player even though he is top 10 in most of the stats except for efficiency! The man is a complete problem so rather then getting on the computer and seeing stats why don't u spend some money get the NBA package and watch the man play because if u do watch him it is very easy to see that he is a top 5 player even better then that why don't u look up a few of his games against Lebron and watch him duke it out with the man and find ways to beat him a majority of the times! Isn't that funny that a none "top 10 player" finds a way to beat the "best player in the world" on the regular. If we would base everything a man brings to the game of basketball on stats then I guess AI would just be a chucker that didn't prove little men can dominate the game of basketball! I also guess that according to these people that base players production on these dumb stats that Kobe isn't one of the best players of all-time cause he doesn't have the best FG%, EFF, PER or APER stats! One more thing I would like to bring up next time u look at these stats and see Lebron's stats and say thats what makes the man the best player on the planet keep in mind that even with those godley stats he has 0 rings and when it comes down to it next year Kobe is still gonna find a way to beat him even with him following D-Wade home like a lost puppy! The one thing that most people forget to account for in peoples game is time. Some day in the near future Lebron will have a fall from grace when he loses he's speed and jumping ability, Melo on the other hand will maintain a steady production due to the fact that he is a pure scorer that shoots well and is lot more crafty then quick!

This is a Stats Forum so the analysis here will be mostly by stats, but i would say that most of the posters here watch a huge amount of Games. I have International League Pass and will again pay for the whole Season because i wan't to watch as much Basketball as possible.
That said Carmelo isn't effective at Scoring the Basketball (compared to the elite Scorers) and isn't a good creator for his Teammates (look at his Asist% compared to players with similar usage rates). And because i watch the Games i can tell you that he isn't a good defender and takes possessions off on the defensive side.

And Kobe did not have a good last Season, he started Great but regressed over the course of the Season, So there it doesn't really surprise me that his efficiency does not stack up to the best. Also Kobe is a way better creator and reacts way better to double Teams then Melo.

Sure you need to watch the Game to understand how a Player performs, but our memory is highly selective we probably remember the makes more then the misses and bad possessions especially for a player we like.

KnicksorBust
09-28-2010, 09:59 AM
Carmelo Anthony has averaged 20 points per game every season since he arrived in the NBA. This past campaign, he became the third-youngest player ever to reach the 10,000-point plateau, behind only Kobe Bryant and LeBron James. And next summer, he could hit the open market as an unrestricted free agent.

But despite all those gaudy point totals, the three-time All-Star may not even be worth the max deal a team would likely give him in 2011.


At first glance, Anthony seems like a member of the NBA's elite, largely due to his scoring prowess. But a deeper look at the points column and elsewhere in his game reveals a player who lives on an undeserved reputation more than his actual impact on wins.

It's tough to argue with his 28.2 points-per-game average in '09-10, but in the game of basketball, how a shooter gets his points is more meaningful than the raw number itself. To see that, we need to peel back the layers.

Let's first talk about Anthony's shot volume. It's not exactly a secret that 'Melo likes to shoot the rock, but his propensity to launch shots may raise some eyebrows. This past season, no player in the NBA took more shots per minute than Anthony -- not Kobe, not LeBron, not even scoring champ Kevin Durant.

It may seem obvious that a player worthy of 20 shots per game would have a healthy conversion rate. But in Anthony's case, that's far from the truth. Anthony, in reality, had a below-average field goal percentage (.458) this past season -- and his career percentage (.459) is no different. (The league average is .463.)

The sharp readers out there will point out that traditional field goal percentage doesn't reflect Anthony's shooting ability, since he launches a healthy dose of 3-pointers, which obviously count more on the scoreboard. That's true. But if you've been paying attention, you know Anthony is not a good shooter from beyond the arc, so that doesn't help his case. As a career .308 percent 3-point shooter, his shot from downtown ranks far below the norm (the average small forward shot .349 last season; Melo shot .316) and any progress he seemingly made in 2008-09, when he shot a career-high .371, disappeared. Even if we incorporate the added point bonus of a 3-pointer, the Syracuse product's shooting percentages are, at best, average.

It seems that, anyway we slice it, Anthony is a gunner at the core. His exceptional skill on offense is his ability to get his shot off, whether it's attacking the rim or through a patented pull-up jumper on the perimeter. But interestingly enough, Anthony got his shot blocked a whopping 109 times last season, which ranks as the second-highest total in the league, according to Hoopdata.com. Evidently, he doesn't lack perseverance.

Anthony's case illustrates a fundamental problem in conventional basketball analysis: scoring averages don't reflect efficiency. It's true that Anthony scored 28.2 points per game last season, but it's also true that no player missed more shots as often as Anthony did. Feel free to credit his skill but also pay attention his lofty shot volume and playing time.

And that's before we consider the disguise of team pace. Since Anthony entered the league, the Denver Nuggets have averaged 95.9 possessions per game, which places them as the third -fastest squad in the NBA over that period of time (and just a fraction behind the high-octane Phoenix Suns). Over that same span, the Nuggets have squeezed out an extra four possessions per game when compared to the average NBA team. Do the math, and the Nuggets have enjoyed nearly 2,000 extra possessions above the norm since Anthony joined the NBA. That's a ton of extra opportunities that can pad the per-game stats used as measuring sticks.

So after stripping out the inflationary effect of fast pace and boiling down Anthony's numbers to a per possession level, his scoring punch looks even more pedestrian. How pedestrian? Anthony's career offensive rating, an efficiency measure that calculates how many points a player produces per 100 possessions he uses, checks out at 107, which sits right at the league average. For reference, 2003 draft-mates James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh have earned 114, 111, and 113 lifetime offensive ratings, respectively.

Before we prematurely call Anthony an average player, there is something to be said for the burden of trust. Not every player can still perform while shouldering the heavy scoring responsibility that Anthony has endured. But the Nuggets have probably allowed Anthony to shoot far too often if efficiency -- and winning -- is their goal. In fact, last season Melo was only sixth on his own team in ORtg (110), trailing far behind other legit weapons like Nene (124), Chauncey Billups (120) and Ty Lawson (118).

Aside from scoring, Anthony doesn't have many other bankable weapons as a player. His rebounding (career 6.2 rpg) is only slightly better than what we'd expect from a small forward, and he doesn't create opportunities for his teammates like Paul Pierce, Wade and James can. Furthermore, he hasn't shown the intensity and dedication on the defensive end that you'd want from a max player.

In the end, Anthony's game demonstrates why it's important to strip away the biases that color our perceptions of elite players. In Anthony's case, the excessive shot volume, his team's stat-padding tempo and the lack of a true 3-point game makes his 28.2 ppg seem far less impressive than his sparkling reputation would suggest.

If anything, it's time we moved on from per-game statistics to evaluate our players. Millions of dollars are wasted every year basing player value on the archaic statistics that teams used half a century ago. And someone will surely overpay Anthony and offer him a max contract -- just look at the deals Joe Johnson and Rudy Gay got

Did you write this? This was excellent. As a Knicks fan we are constantly in discussion about how to add him, what to give up, etc. and it's nice to see him put into perspective. I'm also not a fan of his defense and passing in comparison with stars like Wade and LeBron.

Baller1
09-28-2010, 10:41 AM
So, using all of our statistics here, who are your guys' top 5 NBA players?

Hawkeye15
09-29-2010, 04:51 PM
So, using all of our statistics here, who are your guys' top 5 NBA players?

LeBron
Wade
Paul
Durant
Dwight

Statistically, these are my top 5

Baller1
09-29-2010, 06:18 PM
LeBron
Wade
Paul
Durant
Dwight

Statistically, these are my top 5

I've yet to take an in-depth look at the Paul/Williams comparison, but is he difference really that big?

But yeah, your list looks just about the same as mine. I'd go with:

LeBron
Wade
Durant
Dwight
Kobe/Paul/Deron

Basketash
09-29-2010, 06:59 PM
Carmelo Anthony has averaged 20 points per game every season since he arrived in the NBA. This past campaign, he became the third-youngest player ever to reach the 10,000-point plateau, behind only Kobe Bryant and LeBron James. And next summer, he could hit the open market as an unrestricted free agent.

But despite all those gaudy point totals, the three-time All-Star may not even be worth the max deal a team would likely give him in 2011.


At first glance, Anthony seems like a member of the NBA's elite, largely due to his scoring prowess. But a deeper look at the points column and elsewhere in his game reveals a player who lives on an undeserved reputation more than his actual impact on wins.

It's tough to argue with his 28.2 points-per-game average in '09-10, but in the game of basketball, how a shooter gets his points is more meaningful than the raw number itself. To see that, we need to peel back the layers.

Let's first talk about Anthony's shot volume. It's not exactly a secret that 'Melo likes to shoot the rock, but his propensity to launch shots may raise some eyebrows. This past season, no player in the NBA took more shots per minute than Anthony -- not Kobe, not LeBron, not even scoring champ Kevin Durant.

It may seem obvious that a player worthy of 20 shots per game would have a healthy conversion rate. But in Anthony's case, that's far from the truth. Anthony, in reality, had a below-average field goal percentage (.458) this past season -- and his career percentage (.459) is no different. (The league average is .463.)

The sharp readers out there will point out that traditional field goal percentage doesn't reflect Anthony's shooting ability, since he launches a healthy dose of 3-pointers, which obviously count more on the scoreboard. That's true. But if you've been paying attention, you know Anthony is not a good shooter from beyond the arc, so that doesn't help his case. As a career .308 percent 3-point shooter, his shot from downtown ranks far below the norm (the average small forward shot .349 last season; Melo shot .316) and any progress he seemingly made in 2008-09, when he shot a career-high .371, disappeared. Even if we incorporate the added point bonus of a 3-pointer, the Syracuse product's shooting percentages are, at best, average.

It seems that, anyway we slice it, Anthony is a gunner at the core. His exceptional skill on offense is his ability to get his shot off, whether it's attacking the rim or through a patented pull-up jumper on the perimeter. But interestingly enough, Anthony got his shot blocked a whopping 109 times last season, which ranks as the second-highest total in the league, according to Hoopdata.com. Evidently, he doesn't lack perseverance.

Anthony's case illustrates a fundamental problem in conventional basketball analysis: scoring averages don't reflect efficiency. It's true that Anthony scored 28.2 points per game last season, but it's also true that no player missed more shots as often as Anthony did. Feel free to credit his skill but also pay attention his lofty shot volume and playing time.

And that's before we consider the disguise of team pace. Since Anthony entered the league, the Denver Nuggets have averaged 95.9 possessions per game, which places them as the third -fastest squad in the NBA over that period of time (and just a fraction behind the high-octane Phoenix Suns). Over that same span, the Nuggets have squeezed out an extra four possessions per game when compared to the average NBA team. Do the math, and the Nuggets have enjoyed nearly 2,000 extra possessions above the norm since Anthony joined the NBA. That's a ton of extra opportunities that can pad the per-game stats used as measuring sticks.

So after stripping out the inflationary effect of fast pace and boiling down Anthony's numbers to a per possession level, his scoring punch looks even more pedestrian. How pedestrian? Anthony's career offensive rating, an efficiency measure that calculates how many points a player produces per 100 possessions he uses, checks out at 107, which sits right at the league average. For reference, 2003 draft-mates James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh have earned 114, 111, and 113 lifetime offensive ratings, respectively.

Before we prematurely call Anthony an average player, there is something to be said for the burden of trust. Not every player can still perform while shouldering the heavy scoring responsibility that Anthony has endured. But the Nuggets have probably allowed Anthony to shoot far too often if efficiency -- and winning -- is their goal. In fact, last season Melo was only sixth on his own team in ORtg (110), trailing far behind other legit weapons like Nene (124), Chauncey Billups (120) and Ty Lawson (118).

Aside from scoring, Anthony doesn't have many other bankable weapons as a player. His rebounding (career 6.2 rpg) is only slightly better than what we'd expect from a small forward, and he doesn't create opportunities for his teammates like Paul Pierce, Wade and James can. Furthermore, he hasn't shown the intensity and dedication on the defensive end that you'd want from a max player.

In the end, Anthony's game demonstrates why it's important to strip away the biases that color our perceptions of elite players. In Anthony's case, the excessive shot volume, his team's stat-padding tempo and the lack of a true 3-point game makes his 28.2 ppg seem far less impressive than his sparkling reputation would suggest.

If anything, it's time we moved on from per-game statistics to evaluate our players. Millions of dollars are wasted every year basing player value on the archaic statistics that teams used half a century ago. And someone will surely overpay Anthony and offer him a max contract -- just look at the deals Joe Johnson and Rudy Gay got

Best evaluation of a player i ever read.

PatsSoxKnicks
09-29-2010, 07:37 PM
Since I've been a bit busy, I haven't been able to do more research into where I'd rank Carmelo (although I do think he's overrated by the masses) but I'm going to ask another question that has to do with Carmelo's situation. And I'll read some of your thoughts.

My question is: The Nets, Knicks, Bulls, Rockets, etc. are all interested in Carmelo. We've all heard the trade scenarios, most seem to have the other teams giving up too much for Melo. However, my question is looking at each of these teams, what should be fair value in a trade for Carmelo for both parties? The Nuggets and the team trading for him get equal value or as close as you can get. A lot of this will be based on how you project certain players to turn out. For example, if you see Favors becoming like Bosh for example, you would probably not want to include him in a deal for Melo. And I'd like to see people try this for each of the teams involved in the talks.

So we're not talking actual trade scenarios, we're talking trades that should be made, giving equal value (or as close as you can get) for each team.

abe_froman
09-30-2010, 12:27 AM
Since I've been a bit busy, I haven't been able to do more research into where I'd rank Carmelo (although I do think he's overrated by the masses) but I'm going to ask another question that has to do with Carmelo's situation. And I'll read some of your thoughts.

My question is: The Nets, Knicks, Bulls, Rockets, etc. are all interested in Carmelo. We've all heard the trade scenarios, most seem to have the other teams giving up too much for Melo. However, my question is looking at each of these teams, what should be fair value in a trade for Carmelo for both parties? The Nuggets and the team trading for him get equal value or as close as you can get. A lot of this will be based on how you project certain players to turn out. For example, if you see Favors becoming like Bosh for example, you would probably not want to include him in a deal for Melo. And I'd like to see people try this for each of the teams involved in the talks.

So we're not talking actual trade scenarios, we're talking trades that should be made, giving equal value (or as close as you can get) for each team.
it very rare that trades made are perceived to be equal,just is.and if we're talking from the masses/gm standpoint there is no trade scenario were denver could claim it as an equal(dealing franchise player for anything but...).

i dont know too much about the rockets rumor,but i'd have say the nets deal came closest(most posters from 3 of the 4 parties involved seemed to have wanted the trade to happen)

Hawkeye15
09-30-2010, 01:51 PM
I've yet to take an in-depth look at the Paul/Williams comparison, but is he difference really that big?

But yeah, your list looks just about the same as mine. I'd go with:

LeBron
Wade
Durant
Dwight
Kobe/Paul/Deron

yes. Its that big. Paul wins everything individually. Deron's turnover rate compared to Paul's dooms the comparison. Deron uses a hard crossover to change direction, which creates turnovers. Paul uses change of direction and low handles, which drops his turnover rate. Paul also rebounds better, and assists on more possessions for his team

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=willide01&y1=2010&p2=paulch01&y2=2010

Hawkeye15
09-30-2010, 01:53 PM
Since I've been a bit busy, I haven't been able to do more research into where I'd rank Carmelo (although I do think he's overrated by the masses) but I'm going to ask another question that has to do with Carmelo's situation. And I'll read some of your thoughts.

My question is: The Nets, Knicks, Bulls, Rockets, etc. are all interested in Carmelo. We've all heard the trade scenarios, most seem to have the other teams giving up too much for Melo. However, my question is looking at each of these teams, what should be fair value in a trade for Carmelo for both parties? The Nuggets and the team trading for him get equal value or as close as you can get. A lot of this will be based on how you project certain players to turn out. For example, if you see Favors becoming like Bosh for example, you would probably not want to include him in a deal for Melo. And I'd like to see people try this for each of the teams involved in the talks.

So we're not talking actual trade scenarios, we're talking trades that should be made, giving equal value (or as close as you can get) for each team.


I think you can removed the Rockets. Morey is a statistical genuis, and knows Melo's worth. He will not offer the package Walsh, or any other team craving the star attraction will give up

Baller1
09-30-2010, 11:09 PM
I think you can removed the Rockets. Morey is a statistical genuis, and knows Melo's worth. He will not offer the package Walsh, or any other team craving the star attraction will give up

Good point. And he has Battier to help him out with the statistical research as well. I was kinda joking at first, but I wouldn't doubt him and Battier both helping each other out with statistical analysis.

DenButsu
10-03-2010, 03:33 AM
Did you write this?

No, it was written by Tom Haberstroh.

Ovratd1up
10-04-2010, 10:19 PM
LeBron
Wade
Paul
Durant
Dwight

Statistically, these are my top 5

It's refreshing to not see Kobe perpetually stuck in the first and second names. This is my five as well.

Hawkeye15
10-05-2010, 10:31 AM
It's refreshing to not see Kobe perpetually stuck in the first and second names. This is my five as well.

this is a statistics forum. In the real world, I would have a hard time putting Kobe any further back than #3 right now.

Ovratd1up
10-06-2010, 12:03 AM
this is a statistics forum. In the real world, I would have a hard time putting Kobe any further back than #3 right now.

Skill-wise, no way. But I personally like to judge players on their impact on the game. Impact wise, I think you could argue each of Wade, Lebron, Dwight, Durant, and Chris Paul are superior. With statistics.

See what I did there...

Patman
10-06-2010, 08:49 AM
Skill-wise, no way. But I personally like to judge players on their impact on the game. Impact wise, I think you could argue each of Wade, Lebron, Dwight, Durant, and Chris Paul are superior. With statistics.

See what I did there...

Hm i don't know if you can say that impact can be accounted for by stats only. Because it doesn't take in to account that defenses still gameplan against Kobe etc.

One of the best examples of this is Shaq with Miami his final stats aren't impressive but his impact on the Game was Huge because the Mavs had to overload the side of the court where Shaq was.

DenButsu
10-19-2010, 08:51 AM
Here is an excellent piece written by Jeremy Wagner of Roundball Mining Company examining the Hows and Whys of Melo's inefficiency. He does a comparison of several other players involving open/contested shot percentages that's really eye opening, imho. I definitely recommend checking this one out:

http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2010/10/19/carmelo-anthony-efficient/

Raoul Duke
10-19-2010, 10:36 AM
Here is an excellent piece written by Jeremy Wagner of Roundball Mining Company examining the Hows and Whys of Melo's inefficiency. He does a comparison of several other players involving open/contested shot percentages that's really eye opening, imho. I definitely recommend checking this one out:

http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2010/10/19/carmelo-anthony-efficient/

That is an awesome read. Some nice stuff in the "comments" section below it as well. For example...


You forgot to add all the trips to the foul line, and the great FT% and the minutes missed by opposing front courts due to foul trouble. And the value drawing double teams has to increasing the amount of open shots for his teammates.

Baller1
10-19-2010, 11:06 AM
Here is an excellent piece written by Jeremy Wagner of Roundball Mining Company examining the Hows and Whys of Melo's inefficiency. He does a comparison of several other players involving open/contested shot percentages that's really eye opening, imho. I definitely recommend checking this one out:

http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2010/10/19/carmelo-anthony-efficient/

That's awesome, thanks Den.

I was surprised to see Durant so low on his open shot percentage.

Chronz
10-19-2010, 04:23 PM
Checking it out right now sounds fishy

arkanian215
10-19-2010, 04:42 PM
Here is an excellent piece written by Jeremy Wagner of Roundball Mining Company examining the Hows and Whys of Melo's inefficiency. He does a comparison of several other players involving open/contested shot percentages that's really eye opening, imho. I definitely recommend checking this one out:

http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2010/10/19/carmelo-anthony-efficient/

I'm not a statistician so I can't tell you for sure if that "sampling" method is legit but to me, there could be an underlying reason why these results were created. To me, it shouldn't matter whether a player had an off game because on average, those highs and lows balance out. There's the chance that more highs would be captured than lows or vice versa but those should also be taken into account. If the probability of Melo has a game of 23.2 pts is lower than the probability of Melo getting a 33.2 pt game, that should be reflected in the sample. Having great nights along with having woeful nights should be factored in.

To my knowledge, his sampling method doesn't resemble any type of pooling that I've seen before.

Chronz
10-19-2010, 05:46 PM
Well he doesnt really have a choice, he cant track every game so he used a baseline for his results, the baseline being averages that are identical to overall averages, I actually have more of a problem with the stats hes using. Nobody defines efficiency by % of made shots because every made shot isnt created equally. Of course Durant is going to rate lower this way, the dude takes alot of 3's. He shouldve used PPP

DenButsu
10-19-2010, 07:12 PM
I don't think he's "rating Durant low". That's really not the case he's making.

All he's seeking is an explanation for why Melo - who on the surface is apparently a great shooter - ends up being inefficient. And there may well be flaws in his research (some of you know better than me how to identify them), but I suspect that the basic conclusion - that one of the biggest factors contributing to Melo's lack of efficiency is his tendency to take way too many contested shots - would be proven sound, even with more accurate research methods.

Chronz
10-19-2010, 07:36 PM
I never said he was rating Durant low, I said his definition of efficiency (floor%) will inherently rate Durant lower just by virtue of the 3's he takes. Why not show us their PPP or eFG% instead?

DenButsu
10-19-2010, 09:23 PM
I never said he was rating Durant low, I said his definition of efficiency (floor%) will inherently rate Durant lower just by virtue of the 3's he takes. Why not show us their PPP or eFG% instead?

Well, I don't know the answer to that. My guess would be because he's a Nuggets blogger who's somewhat familiar with efficiency stats as opposed to being an efficiency stats guy who's blogging about the Nuggets, and so maybe he didn't think through all the ramifications of his methodology.

Anyhow, all I was trying to say was that the other guys were included as examples of players who were doing things right, to illustrate what Melo was doing wrong.

But I've exchanged a few tweets with this guy. I'll ask him, and see if I get a reply.

DenButsu
10-20-2010, 04:07 AM
Well, I got at least a partial answer for now.

RoundballMiner Jeremy Wagner

@denbutsu I'm planning on a post to answer q's like those. PPP and EFG% are better than FG% I just was basically looking at quality of shots

Patman
10-20-2010, 09:49 AM
The analysis is certainly nice, even though the Sample size isn't big, but thats ok because it's still time consuming. He really should have used Efg% to account for 3-Pointers.

Hm maybe Carmelo would have to move more without the ball because these Stats indicate that he isn't really good a creating his shot from the right Wing in ISO (at least that was what i saw when i watched the nuggets, Melo catching the ball somewhere on the right side and going to work) Also it indicates that he just chucks it up once he gets the ball i mean he takes a lot of contested shots and hits a really low percentage.

The question is, is Carmelo motivated to move whit out the ball to get better positions or open looks or does he just wan't the ball in his hands?

DenButsu
10-20-2010, 09:54 AM
He said he's going to be following up. I hope he does, because it sounds like his initial research (the hours spent watching film) could be really enlightening if he breaks it down properly.

Chronz
10-20-2010, 06:00 PM
LOL I got into the twitter craze becuz of this post, Im now following you Den.

DenButsu
10-20-2010, 06:48 PM
What's your handle? I think I got it, but wanna make sure, then I'll follow you back.

You may want to peruse these lists to speed your search for tweeps you might want to follow:

http://twitter.com/#!/list/denbutsu/nba-stats-and-commentary

http://twitter.com/#!/list/denbutsu/nba-news

By no means comprehensive, but about as much as I can handle, volume-wise.

DenButsu
10-21-2010, 05:57 AM
Okay, Jeremy at RMC has followed up his Melo post now. I have to work in like 4 minutes, and I probably can't even read the whole thing before I start, but I wanted to post the link. And Chronz, he directly addresses your concern (in reply to your comment) - whether it's to your satisfaction or not, well, you be the judge.

http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2010/10/21/revisiting-efficiency-and-carmelo-anthony/

Chronz
10-21-2010, 02:42 PM
What's your handle? I think I got it, but wanna make sure, then I'll follow you back.

You may want to peruse these lists to speed your search for tweeps you might want to follow:

http://twitter.com/#!/list/denbutsu/nba-stats-and-commentary

http://twitter.com/#!/list/denbutsu/nba-news

By no means comprehensive, but about as much as I can handle, volume-wise.
Lists are a way of categorizing twitter feeds right, cool Im barely getting a hang of this, but yea thats me. I tried to message you but it failed every time.

DenButsu
10-21-2010, 06:59 PM
Lists are a way of categorizing twitter feeds right, cool Im barely getting a hang of this, but yea thats me. I tried to message you but it failed every time.

Just replied to your profile message here... we have a few different wavelengths going. :laugh2:

Just followed you, too.

Did you see part 2 yet of the Melo thing?