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View Full Version : Which Current MLB Players Are a Lock for Hall?



harlequin018
09-23-2010, 07:27 PM
Its an interesting question, but I think there are a handful of guys still playing who will be going into the Hall of Fame. Now I don't mean who projects to go if they continue their career success, but who has done enough so far to get in. My picks:

Jeter (1st ballot)
ARod (1st ballot even with the steroids)
Pudge (greatest catcher of all time)
Albert Pujols (1st ballot, his 3 MVPs are enough by themselves)
Ichiro (1st ballot)
Vlad
Mariano Rivera
Trevor Hoffman

While the ones above are obvious, I think these guys would have a shot:

Jim Thome
Omar Vizquel
Manny Ramirez

Thoughts?

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 07:31 PM
thome and Manny are in.


Those are all good choices.

Halladay and Santana I would believe could be expected to be seen in the hall.

Griffey I guess is no longer active.

Chipper is the other

I believe Helton is a lock as well.

As far as guys I believe should be in....that is another list.

DieHardColtsfan
09-23-2010, 07:32 PM
Everyone on the 2010 New York Mets team.

Mopped_you
09-23-2010, 07:38 PM
Derek Jeter, Jim Thome, Chipper Jones, Todd Helton, Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Roy Halladay, Johan Santana, Ichiro, Pudge, Pujols, Vlad,.

Can't think of anyone else. I don't see how guys like A-rod and Manny are "locks" when you don't know how the voters will treat them since they used PEDS.

Players that are close maybe second or third ballot - Omar Vizquel, Billy Wagner, Miguel Tejada, Jason Giambi, Michael Young, Tim Hudson, Andy Pettitte, Carlos Delgado, Papi.

harlequin018
09-23-2010, 07:44 PM
Chipper is definitely in. Just looked at his stats and they're eerily like Vlad's. The only real difference is Chip is three years older so Vlad gets to pad those for a few more seasons. I don't see how Helton gets in. He has 3 GGs (nothing special), and mediocre numbers from a premium bat position (2200 hits, 330 HRs) and no titles or MVPs. A good player, maybe even great, but no Hall of Famer.

bagwell368
09-23-2010, 08:03 PM
In today: Jeter, AROD, Ichiro, Chipper, Ramirez, Thome, Mariano, Hoffman, Vlad (this year did it I think), Pudge (one of the most overrated players of all time - check with his pitchers to find out why), Albert,

Most Likely: Halladay, just a few more healthy years, and he is in.

Maybe: Vizquel (well overrated, Trammell wipes the floor w/ him but isn't in); Santana has the talent, but his heath and results are tumbling probably not; Wagner - very close; Hudson? Has a long way to go still - doubt it. Pettitte? Long career #2 or #3 that won some rings - needs two more really good years, doubt he has them.

No: Helton (Coors hitter, power died young, no way - look at this:

Home: .356/.453/.628 OPS+ 157
Away: .292/393/.482 OPS+ 116) So the guy is Ted Williams at home and Paul O'Neil on the road??? Not a HOF, not even close);

No (continued) Tejada (terrible choice if he gets in - bogus glove, a 110 OPS+ hitter, he sucks, and isn't any sort of leader); Michael Young? You must be joking, he sucks - and at the salary he vies most years for the past 5 for who does the least for the most cash - him or Jeter on the field. Giambi? No to the juice man; Delgado (not quite);

thefeckcampaign
09-23-2010, 08:09 PM
Derek Jeter, Jim Thome, Chipper Jones, Todd Helton, Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Roy Halladay, Johan Santana, Ichiro, Pudge, Pujols, Vlad,.

Can't think of anyone else. I don't see how guys like A-rod and Manny are "locks" when you don't know how the voters will treat them since they used PEDS.

Players that are close maybe second or third ballot - Omar Vizquel, Billy Wagner, Miguel Tejada, Jason Giambi, Michael Young, Tim Hudson, Andy Pettitte, Carlos Delgado, Papi.Pudge is on that list as well.

5pointer
09-23-2010, 08:10 PM
Buster Posey.

Jack of Blades
09-23-2010, 08:14 PM
I know he's far from a lock, but do you guys think Michael Young will make it in? I know he'll be in the Rangers HoF and have is number retired though.

ShinobiNYC
09-23-2010, 08:22 PM
I think Berkman will make it.

Posada has a good shot.

Wright has a shot(he is still pretty young tho).

Teixeira has a good shot if he keeps it up.

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 08:34 PM
Derek Jeter, Jim Thome, Chipper Jones, Todd Helton, Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Roy Halladay, Johan Santana, Ichiro, Pudge, Pujols, Vlad,.

Can't think of anyone else. I don't see how guys like A-rod and Manny are "locks" when you don't know how the voters will treat them since they used PEDS.

Players that are close maybe second or third ballot - Omar Vizquel, Billy Wagner, Miguel Tejada, Jason Giambi, Michael Young, Tim Hudson, Andy Pettitte, Carlos Delgado, Papi.

once Bonds, Pettitte, and Clemens get into the hall, it will open the floodgates of users.

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 08:35 PM
I know he's far from a lock, but do you guys think Michael Young will make it in? I know he'll be in the Rangers HoF and have is number retired though.

no

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 08:37 PM
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_active.shtml

If you are over 60, you belong in.

Basically.

65 if you think the hall should be more elite.

Beyond that, guys on their way, think of who will end up over 60

sexicano31
09-23-2010, 08:42 PM
Chase utley :hide:

thefeckcampaign
09-23-2010, 08:43 PM
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_active.shtml

If you are over 60, you belong in.

Basically.

65 if you think the hall should be more elite.

Beyond that, guys on their way, think of who will end up over 60Are you telling me Bobby Abreu may eventually get in? I sure as hell hope not.


once Bonds, Pettitte, and Clemens get into the hall, it will open the floodgates of users.I sure as hell hope this doesn't happen. I have a hard time picturing Pettitte regardless of the PED's.

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 08:44 PM
In today: Jeter, AROD, Ichiro, Chipper, Ramirez, Thome, Mariano, Hoffman, Vlad (this year did it I think), Pudge (one of the most overrated players of all time - check with his pitchers to find out why), Albert,

Most Likely: Halladay, just a few more healthy years, and he is in.

Maybe: Vizquel (well overrated, Trammell wipes the floor w/ him but isn't in); Santana has the talent, but his heath and results are tumbling probably not; Wagner - very close; Hudson? Has a long way to go still - doubt it. Pettitte? Long career #2 or #3 that won some rings - needs two more really good years, doubt he has them.

No: Helton (Coors hitter, power died young, no way - look at this:
Home: .356/.453/.628 OPS+ 157
Away: .292/393/.482 OPS+ 116) So the guy is Ted Williams at home and Paul O'Neil on the road??? Not a HOF, not even close);

No (continued) Tejada (terrible choice if he gets in - bogus glove, a 110 OPS+ hitter, he sucks, and isn't any sort of leader); Michael Young? You must be joking, he sucks - and at the salary he vies most years for the past 5 for who does the least for the most cash - him or Jeter on the field. Giambi? No to the juice man; Delgado (not quite);

I understand, but it's not like he is so bad on the road that he is Paul O'Neil overall...He is a healthy mixture of both...he isn't playing like Cargo on the road.

a career .424 with that many pa's holds some tremendous value.

I believe if he can have one more productive season, it is enough to put him in, even though his first base isn't anything too special.

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 08:47 PM
Are you telling me Bobby Abreu may eventually get in? I sure as hell hope not.

I don't think he will.

The difference is who deserves to get in, and who will get in.

I don't think Edmonds will get in, but he damn well deserves to.

People just look at offensive counting stats and take those at face value, you really need to pay attention to defensive value as well.

A run saved on defense is worth the same as earning a run on offense, and players like Rolen, Jones and Edmonds played awesome D for many years...it holds equal value.

You can't just count homers, and base hits, and career batting average and vote hall of famer or not.

I personally think 65 and up is good enough for the hall, and 55 and up is in consideration for a pitcher...and really 60...

it's a damn shame that Bert Blyleven isn't in the hall yet.

bagwell368
09-23-2010, 08:47 PM
I know he's far from a lock, but do you guys think Michael Young will make it in? I know he'll be in the Rangers HoF and have is number retired though.

I can't quite get my arms around the concept.

A guy with only 6665 PA's and a 105 OPS+, with a very weak glove (worse then -10 UZR/150 at SS AND 3B both) having earned ~$43M for 25.2 WAR (about 37% of what he needs to make the HOF).

He's worth what roughly these guys are worth: Dennis Menke, Mik Lowell, John Valentin, and Dick Groat. See any HOF'ers on that list?

I hate to break it to you, but MY isn't a HOF, and for his salary - he sucks massively.

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 08:49 PM
and Abreu is pretty noticeably slipping and fading.

Once a player hits that career 65 though, I think he has a very good argument to put into the hall.

The one that I like to argue for is Kenny Lofton...nobody assumes him to be a hall of famer, but he was incredibly valuable over his career.

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 08:51 PM
I can't quite get my arms around the concept.

A guy with only 6665 PA's and a 105 OPS+, with a very weak glove (worse then -10 UZR/150 at SS AND 3B both) having earned ~$43M for 25.2 WAR (about 37% of what he needs to make the HOF).

He's worth what roughly these guys are worth: Dennis Menke, Mik Lowell, John Valentin, and Dick Groat. See any HOF'ers on that list?

I hate to break it to you, but MY isn't a HOF, and for his salary - he sucks massively.

Watch it now, I got into one heated argument over Young's value overall, and I was left alone in thinking he wasn't that great.

Because he gets 200 hits and has that GG....they think he is God's gift..

He is an above average third basemen in a hitters friendly ball park that is vastly over paid.

Are the Rangers lucky to have him? Yes....is his 25 career WAR worthy of a hall vote? I wouldn't vote him in.

Pierzynski4Prez
09-23-2010, 08:56 PM
Young would need to play at all star level for the next 5 years just to be considered. He will be lucky to even do that once. He was good no doubt, but hall worthy? Really? I mean I guess he did get 8th in MVP voting 1 time.

Gigantes4Life
09-23-2010, 08:57 PM
once Bonds, Pettitte, and Clemens get into the hall, it will open the floodgates of users.

Bonds and Clemens are on a different level than the other users though, especially Bonds.

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 08:58 PM
Bonds and Clemens are on a different level than the other users though, especially Bonds.

I mentioned Pettitte only because people seem to forget he used.

DodgerB24
09-23-2010, 09:02 PM
Bonds and Clemens are on a different level than the other users though, especially Bonds.

Doesn't matter. If you let Manny or A-rod in you have to let em' all in.

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 09:03 PM
Doesn't matter. If you let Manny or A-rod in you have to let em' all in.

but as long as the voters are sports writers, they will hold grudges against certain players for no damn reason.

some will end up getting in, and others won't.

Doubt we ever see McGwire in, but you will probably see Manny in

Mopped_you
09-23-2010, 09:03 PM
In today: Jeter, AROD, Ichiro, Chipper, Ramirez, Thome, Mariano, Hoffman, Vlad (this year did it I think), Pudge (one of the most overrated players of all time - check with his pitchers to find out why), Albert,

Most Likely: Halladay, just a few more healthy years, and he is in.

Maybe: Vizquel (well overrated, Trammell wipes the floor w/ him but isn't in); Santana has the talent, but his heath and results are tumbling probably not; Wagner - very close; Hudson? Has a long way to go still - doubt it. Pettitte? Long career #2 or #3 that won some rings - needs two more really good years, doubt he has them.

No: Helton (Coors hitter, power died young, no way - look at this:

Home: .356/.453/.628 OPS+ 157
Away: .292/393/.482 OPS+ 116) So the guy is Ted Williams at home and Paul O'Neil on the road??? Not a HOF, not even close);

No (continued) Tejada (terrible choice if he gets in - bogus glove, a 110 OPS+ hitter, he sucks, and isn't any sort of leader); Michael Young? You must be joking, he sucks - and at the salary he vies most years for the past 5 for who does the least for the most cash - him or Jeter on the field. Giambi? No to the juice man; Delgado (not quite);


Look at other Hall of Fame 3B, and Michael Young has put up similar numbers to them. Not worth at all what they've been worth but he definitely has the simple numbers right now to get it(Hr, OBP, SLG, AVG,). He's right up there with HOF Freddie Linstrom, as far as that goes.

Same for Tejada, look at other HOF SS and compare to him. Not necessarily looking at his numbers but at other HOF members compared to him.

Mopped_you
09-23-2010, 09:08 PM
but as long as the voters are sports writers, they will hold grudges against certain players for no damn reason.

some will end up getting in, and others won't.

Doubt we ever see McGwire in, but you will probably see Manny in

That would be wrong IMO. If A-Rod is in, than Manny, Bonds, McGwire, Pettitte, etc. should be in. No double standards.

thefeckcampaign
09-23-2010, 09:09 PM
I don't think he will.

The difference is who deserves to get in, and who will get in.

I don't think Edmonds will get in, but he damn well deserves to.

People just look at offensive counting stats and take those at face value, you really need to pay attention to defensive value as well.

A run saved on defense is worth the same as earning a run on offense, and players like Rolen, Jones and Edmonds played awesome D for many years...it holds equal value.

You can't just count homers, and base hits, and career batting average and vote hall of famer or not.

I personally think 65 and up is good enough for the hall, and 55 and up is in consideration for a pitcher...and really 60...

it's a damn shame that Bert Blyleven isn't in the hall yet.Abreu is one of those guys that if you watched him day in and day out like I did you would see that his hits never seemed to come at the right time. It appeared he would hit a 2 run HR while the team was up 4-2 in the 8th but if they were down 4-2 in that same 8th inning situation he would make an out.

Blyleven has been debated on here for a long time so I don't necessarily want to get into a debate about him in particular, but I will say he is another one that makes me wonder if the numbers say the whole story.

Granted like Abreu, played on a crappy team most of his career but I never recall BB getting the "dominant" tag while growing and watching him play.

Now mind you, my memory may be jaded as far as BB goes being I was so young but I have a hard time believing Abreu is HOFer. Other more traditional stats help support that as well. Do you consider 131 an OPS+ worthy of the HOF?

bagwell368
09-23-2010, 09:10 PM
I understand, but it's not like he is so bad on the road that he is Paul O'Neil overall...He is a healthy mixture of both...he isn't playing like Cargo on the road.

a career .424 with that many pa's holds some tremendous value.

I believe if he can have one more productive season, it is enough to put him in, even though his first base isn't anything too special.

No. Just because guys like Ellis Burks, Galarraga, and Helton (and many others) figured out how to hit in Coors doesn't mean they can hit. Such guys MUST NOT have the fraudulent numbers they generated mixed in to the overall numbers to judge them.

Helton is not a HOF hitter. His OPS+ away from home is basically league average for a 1B. Having the knack to hit in Coors is friggin great, helps the team, but to extrapolate from those numbers or include those numbers is false. In 2000 the hitting rate is frigging 129!!!!

In the last 4 years his games played: 154, 83, 151, 110 (he's got little time or quality left)

When Coors was really a launching pad Helton HR's:

25, 35, 42, 49

Since then:

30, 33, 32, 20, 15, 17, 7, 15, 7

He's not going to get to 400 HR's, in an era of 1B with massive numbers, what's Helton's claim? That he's Mark Grace playing in a launching pad? No. That's an insult to Mark Grace, Mark Grace was a better player then Helton. Period.

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 09:10 PM
Look at other Hall of Fame 3B, and Michael Young has put up similar numbers to them. Not worth at all what they've been worth but he definitely has the simple numbers right now to get it(Hr, OBP, SLG, AVG,). He's right up there with HOF Freddie Linstrom, as far as that goes.

Same for Tejada, look at other HOF SS and compare to him. Not necessarily looking at his numbers but at other HOF members compared to him.

actually, most third basemens are under rated in terms of hall of fame inductions go.

Santo, for example should be in, and isn't.

The list at third, puts Young like 30th all time, at best, at the position.

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 09:13 PM
No. Just because guys like Ellis Burks, Galarraga, and Helton (and many others) figured out how to hit in Coors doesn't mean they can hit. Such guys can not MUST NOT have the fraudulent numbers they generated mixed in to the overall numbers to judge them.

Helton is not a HOF hitter. His OPS+ away from home is basically league average for 1B. Having the knack to hit in Coors is friggin great, helps the team, but to extrapolate from those numbers or include those numbers is false. In 2000 the hitting rate is frigging 129!!!!

In the last 4 years his games played: 154, 83, 151, 110

When Coors was really a launching pad Helton HR's:

25, 35, 42, 49

Since then:

230, 33, 32, 20, 15, 17, 7, 15, 7

He's not going to get to 400 HR's, in an era of 1B with massive numbers, what's Helton's claim? That he's Mark Grace playing in a launching pad? No. That's an insult to Mark Grace, Mark Grace was a better player then Helton. Period.

Even though, runs are less premium in Coors, he still hit quite well.

I think he is almost hall of famer, one more solid year, and I think he may end up getting in.

Would I vote for him? Nope...He needs 3 more above average years for me to consider voting him in....he isn't quite to fringe yet IMO.

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 09:16 PM
Helton's plate discipline, high on base average, high batting average, coupled with solid power, with a healthy career, make him very very close.

His road numbers are not so bad that you just ignore him...he didn't pull a Vinny Castilla, and I don't think of him as a Coors product, although, it did greatly help him...

Like I said, he either needs one more all star season, or three more above average solid seasons for me to consider him fringe, but that high *** obp is hard to ignore.

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 09:18 PM
That would be wrong IMO. If A-Rod is in, than Manny, Bonds, McGwire, Pettitte, etc. should be in. No double standards.

Have you met sports writers?

They are idiots

bagwell368
09-23-2010, 09:18 PM
Abreu is one of those guys that if you watched him day in and day out like I did you would see that his hits never seemed to come at the right time. It appeared he would hit a 2 run HR while the team was up 4-2 in the 8th but if they were down 4-2 in that same 8th inning situation he would make an out.

Blyleven has been debated on here for a long time so I don't necessarily want to get into a debate about him in particular, but I will say he is another one that makes me wonder if the numbers say the whole story.

Granted like Abreu, played on a crappy team most of his career but I never recall BB getting the "dominant" tag while growing and watching him play.

Now mind you, my memory may be jaded as far as BB goes being I was so young but I have a hard time believing Abreu is HOFer. Other more traditional stats help support that as well. Do you consider 131 an OPS+ worthy of the HOF?

I like Abreu a lot. He does have a knack, an element beyond the numbers. He is going to need to put up a couple of more good years to have a legit chance, but I like him, definite maybe.

As for Blyleven, unlike the myth of Ryan pitching for bad teams, Blyleven did, and his winning % over his teams is a lot better then Ryan's. He is in fact in my mind and my memory a better pitcher then Ryan. Blyleven is twice the pitcher Jim Hunter was. He is the single most deserving player not in the HOF that should get in - more so then Santo, Trammell, and all the rest.

sexicano31
09-23-2010, 09:22 PM
Anyone think Jamie Moyer will make it by virtue of his longevity?

Mopped_you
09-23-2010, 09:23 PM
actually, most third basemens are under rated in terms of hall of fame inductions go.

Santo, for example should be in, and isn't.

The list at third, puts Young like 30th all time, at best, at the position.

Very good point. I still respect him and think he deserves credit, ya never know maybe he'll make it one day.

How about David Ortiz? I know he falls in the steroid category, but based on numbers and defense he doesn't seem to be that far off.

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 09:24 PM
Abreu is one of those guys that if you watched him day in and day out like I did you would see that his hits never seemed to come at the right time. It appeared he would hit a 2 run HR while the team was up 4-2 in the 8th but if they were down 4-2 in that same 8th inning situation he would make an out.

Blyleven has been debated on here for a long time so I don't necessarily want to get into a debate about him in particular, but I will say he is another one that makes me wonder if the numbers say the whole story.

Granted like Abreu, played on a crappy team most of his career but I never recall BB getting the "dominant" tag while growing and watching him play.

Now mind you, my memory may be jaded as far as BB goes being I was so young but I have a hard time believing Abreu is HOFer. Other more traditional stats help support that as well. Do you consider 131 an OPS+ worthy of the HOF?

131 ops+ with great defense at a good position? great defense at a bad position? poor defense at any position?

and how many p.a's...all are variables.

Bobby isn't a hall of famer any more than Todd Helton is. He was a great player, his awesomely high on base average is what made him so valuable.

He did steal bases, got on base, hit for some power, played solid D. just not quite a hall of famer.

FXMAN
09-23-2010, 09:24 PM
Jorge Posada. Not a first or 2nd but will get in on his offensive stats alone. He's put up some excellent offensive numbers for a catcher while playing one of the diamonds harder and most demanding Positions. I'm sure I'll get **** from Some people. He never changed positions ie. Biggio has a career OPS of 124 Higher than Fisk, Carter Simmons or I rod.
5 Time All Star, 5 Silver Slugger Awards, Finished in the top 10 for MVP Voting twice (Believe it or not), 5 World Series Rings and a Career 277/380/479 from a Catcher.

bagwell368
09-23-2010, 09:25 PM
I think Berkman will make it.

Posada has a good shot.

Wright has a shot(he is still pretty young tho).

Teixeira has a good shot if he keeps it up.

Wright/Teix too young to discuss

Posada should get in, lower tier perhaps, but in.

Berkman? The man won't even be playing MLB by 2013, he won't get to 375 HR's. Nice 7 out of 9 year peak, but precious little support behind it. Nope.

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 09:26 PM
No. Just because guys like Ellis Burks, Galarraga, and Helton (and many others) figured out how to hit in Coors doesn't mean they can hit. Such guys MUST NOT have the fraudulent numbers they generated mixed in to the overall numbers to judge them.

Helton is not a HOF hitter. His OPS+ away from home is basically league average for a 1B. Having the knack to hit in Coors is friggin great, helps the team, but to extrapolate from those numbers or include those numbers is false. In 2000 the hitting rate is frigging 129!!!!

In the last 4 years his games played: 154, 83, 151, 110 (he's got little time or quality left)

When Coors was really a launching pad Helton HR's:

25, 35, 42, 49

Since then:

30, 33, 32, 20, 15, 17, 7, 15, 7

He's not going to get to 400 HR's, in an era of 1B with massive numbers, what's Helton's claim? That he's Mark Grace playing in a launching pad? No. That's an insult to Mark Grace, Mark Grace was a better player then Helton. Period.

your talking about Coors being a launching pad over years while he was in his peak, and then comparing that to when he was over his peak and on his decline? That isn't really a fair comparison.

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 09:27 PM
I like Abreu a lot. He does have a knack, an element beyond the numbers. He is going to need to put up a couple of more good years to have a legit chance, but I like him, definite maybe.

As for Blyleven, unlike the myth of Ryan pitching for bad teams, Blyleven did, and his winning % over his teams is a lot better then Ryan's. He is in fact in my mind and my memory a better pitcher then Ryan. Blyleven is twice the pitcher Jim Hunter was. He is the single most deserving player not in the HOF that should get in - more so then Santo, Trammell, and all the rest.

and Whitaker ;)

and yet, people argue that Jack Morris should be in over Blyleven and it's ****ing ********.

Dennis Martinez should be in over Jack Morris..in terms of career value that is.

bagwell368
09-23-2010, 09:29 PM
Very good point. I still respect him and think he deserves credit, ya never know maybe he'll make it one day.

How about David Ortiz? I know he falls in the steroid category, but based on numbers and defense he doesn't seem to be that far off.

Ortiz is way way short of being a HOF. 4 superb peak years. He would need to repeat this year 5 times to even have a shot. Anyone that thinks he will do that doesn't see him as much as I do. No way.

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 09:31 PM
Jorge Posada. Not a first or 2nd but will get in on his offensive stats alone. He's put up some excellent offensive numbers for a catcher while playing one of the diamonds harder and most demanding Positions. I'm sure I'll get **** from Some people. He never changed positions ie. Biggio has a career OPS of 124 Higher than Fisk, Carter Simmons or I rod.
5 Time All Star, 5 Silver Slugger Awards, Finished in the top 10 for MVP Voting twice (Believe it or not), 5 World Series Rings and a Career 277/380/479 from a Catcher.

I don't think Posada will or should get in personally.

Not an elite catcher that offered enough value over his career.

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 09:32 PM
Wright/Teix too young to discuss

Posada should get in, lower tier perhaps, but in.

Berkman? The man won't even be playing MLB by 2013, he won't get to 375 HR's. Nice 7 out of 9 year peak, but precious little support behind it. Nope.

So you pick Posada over Helton?

Really?

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 09:33 PM
and Berkman = posada in terms of career value.

FXMAN
09-23-2010, 09:39 PM
and Berkman = posada in terms of career value.

Posada put up his numbers while playing a physically more demanding position.

He'll get in.

Berkman I'd Say no and Helton I'd say Yes

jd25213
09-23-2010, 09:39 PM
Sabathia?:shrug:

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 09:42 PM
Posada put up his numbers while playing a physically more demanding position.

He'll get in.

Berkman I'd Say no and Helton I'd say Yes

How about, none of the above?

Posada put up significantly less valuable offensive numbers while playing a more valuable position.

It ends up pretty equal in the end.

Berkman and Posada's career value are almost equal

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 09:43 PM
Sabathia?:shrug:

C.C. is certainly on his way, 3-5 more years like his last 6 years averages, and I would think he could get in.

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 09:45 PM
Ortiz is way way short of being a HOF. 4 superb peak years. He would need to repeat this year 5 times to even have a shot. Anyone that thinks he will do that doesn't see him as much as I do. No way.

Ortiz pretty well needs to double what he has done overall in his career, and I don't think he will...I agree with you on Ortiz...he isn't anywhere close.

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 09:47 PM
Very good point. I still respect him and think he deserves credit, ya never know maybe he'll make it one day.

How about David Ortiz? I know he falls in the steroid category, but based on numbers and defense he doesn't seem to be that far off.

Young does get some credit for when he played short though.

He was a pretty solid offensive short stop in the end.

He is just far away from being in the hall...I think the Rangers should retire his number though.

bagwell368
09-23-2010, 09:52 PM
your talking about Coors being a launching pad over years while he was in his peak, and then comparing that to when he was over his peak and on his decline? That isn't really a fair comparison.

Not fair? To whom? He was 28 years old when he hit 30 in the new park - and slid from there. If you say that he wasn't in his prime anymore at age 28 and he was a starter until he was 24 then on what basis can the man be claimed to be a HOF? 4 years in a launching pad is his peak?

BTW, I want to return to the comment about Helton's road numbers not being bad. A 118 OPS+ is not bad? No it isn't bad. It is average for a 1B in the NL during these years. Average == HOF?

Didn't you just write Abreu isn't a HOF? Well according to B-R Abreu is a 58.4 WAR and Helton is a 48.9

FanGraphs has it as Helton 60.8 and BA at 61.3.

I've seem Abreu play perhaps 250 games, and Helton about 150. I see All Stars and fine players. Neither one seems like an instant HOF. I think they are close, depends what you need, but the era you come along for consideration in matters, and since 1980 the crop of 1B way out numbers the corner OF's coming along. A number of 1B are up for condieration, or about to be. Helton will not leapfrog the first four guys - ever. Bagwell, Albert, Thome, Thomas, Hernandez, Olerud

Then you have McGwire and Palmeiro - if the voters get over the juice thing, that's two more guys that get in before Helton gets a whiff.

ShinobiNYC
09-23-2010, 09:55 PM
Berkman was elite:


Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos
2000 24 HOU NL 114 417 353 76 105 28 1 21 67 6 2 56 73 .297 .388 .561 .949 130 198 6 1 0 7 1 97/3
2001 25 HOU NL 156 688 577 110 191 55 5 34 126 7 9 92 121 .331 .430 .620 1.051 160 358 8 13 0 6 5 *78/9
2002 26 HOU NL 158 692 578 106 169 35 2 42 128 8 4 107 118 .292 .405 .578 .982 150 334 10 4 0 3 20 *879
2003 27 HOU NL 153 658 538 110 155 35 6 25 93 5 3 107 108 .288 .412 .515 .927 138 277 10 9 1 3 13 *7/8
2004 28 HOU NL 160 687 544 104 172 40 3 30 106 9 7 127 101 .316 .450 .566 1.016 159 308 10 10 0 6 14 *97/38
2005 29 HOU NL 132 565 468 76 137 34 1 24 82 4 1 91 72 .293 .411 .524 .934 143 245 18 4 0 2 12 379/D
2006 30 HOU NL 152 646 536 95 169 29 0 45 136 3 2 98 106 .315 .420 .621 1.041 163 333 11 4 0 8 22 *39/7D
2007 31 HOU NL 153 668 561 95 156 24 2 34 102 7 3 94 125 .278 .386 .510 .896 130 286 11 8 0 5 11 *39/8D
2008 32 HOU NL 159 665 554 114 173 46 4 29 106 18 4 99 108 .312 .420 .567 .986 159 314 13 7 0 5 18 *3/D
2009 33 HOU NL 136 562 460 73 126 31 1 25 80 7 4 97 98 .274 .399 .509 .907 140 234 13 1 0 4 14 *3
2010 34 TOT MLB 117 465 391 47 100 23 1 14 57 3 2 74 82 .256 .374 .427 .801 118 167 17 0 0 0 7 3D

And it's not like he is 50, he is 34(he was injured this year) and he should reach milestones like 400 HRs (500?) and/or 2000 hits and/or 1500 walks.

His career 145 OPS+ is one of the best by any active player not named Pujols.

bagwell368
09-23-2010, 09:58 PM
So you pick Posada over Helton?

Really?

Yes. Catchers have a whole different and lower criteria needed for longevity and offensive production. Then of course there is the ring consideration, and how relatively few guys there are too reward for that dynasty.

Put it this way, it's quite possible that Posada is #10-#13 overall at catcher.

You think Helton ranks higher at 1B? No in a word.

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 09:59 PM
Not fair? To whom? He was 28 years old when he hit 30 in the new park - and slid from there. If you say that he wasn't in his prime anymore at age 28 and he was a starter until he was 24 then on what basis can the man be claimed to be a HOF? 4 years in a launching pad is his peak?

BTW, I want to return to the comment about Helton's road numbers not being bad. A 118 OPS+ is not bad? No it isn't bad. It is average for a 1B in the NL during these years. Average == HOF?

Didn't you just write Abreu isn't a HOF? Well according to B-R Abreu is a 58.4 WAR and Helton is a 58.9

FanGraphs has it as Helton 60.8 and BA at 61.3.

I've seem Abreu play perhaps 250 games, and Helton about 150. I see All Stars and fine players. Neither one seems like an instant HOF. I think they are close, depends what you need, but the era you come along for consideration in matters, and since 1980 the crop of 1B way out numbers the corner OF's coming along. A number of 1B are up for condieration, or about to be. Helton will not leapfrog the first four guys - ever. Bagwell, Albert, Thome, Thomas, Hernandez, Olerud

Then you have McGwire and Palmeiro - if the voters get over the juice thing, that's two more guys that get in before Helton gets a whiff.

Helton and Abreu are equally in terms of career value, and neither should be in the hall. As I have said.

And Helton very well could have peaked at 28, but I would believe that hitting 30 homers at age 30 is probably realistic, and to slowly fade at that age is very realistic as well.

a 118 ops+ on the road is very average at first, but he really hit ted williams good at home, you can't just completely discredit it and just double his road numbers as if that is all he could do...he played to the advantage of his home park, like cargo, but he didn't disappear on the road, he still hit very well.

Either way, neither belong in the hall, not yet at least...each could play another 10 years (not likely) and Helton could hit 400, and Abreu 300, and it still wouldn't matter if they didn't show value while playing....Griffey's final valuable season for example 2005, he still played through 2010, but those years were just compiling more counting stats, and shouldn't matter in his hall consideration.


You can't just discredit what Helton did at home, he played like an all time great while there...it doesn't hold as much value, sure, but it still counts, and as long as he was average to above average on the road, his home numbers do carry some significant weight.

I would assume if he can play 3 more above average seasons his hall votes will be interesting. Especially if he plays the rest of his career for one franchise.

And I bolded the 58 on Helton's career WAR, I assume you just mistyped and wrote 48

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 10:01 PM
Yes. Catchers have a whole different and lower criteria needed for longevity and offensive production. Then of course there is the ring consideration, and how relatively few guys there are too reward for that dynasty.

Put it this way, it's quite possible that Posada is #10-#13 overall at catcher.

You think Helton ranks higher at 1B? No in a word.

I agree he doesn't rank as highly at his position.

But Posada's offensive numbers are waaaay behind that of Helton and Berkmans. It's not even close enough to say his defensive value is close enough to argue it. Do you believe in career WAR? Then surely you can see that Berkman = Posada

It's not even close enough to consider them equivalent.

And Berkman played the outfield more than he played first.

And rings are a team accomplishment, have very little (or should) to do with a player going into the hall....it isn't Griffey's fault he didn't win a ring.

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 10:04 PM
Berkman was elite:


Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos
2000 24 HOU NL 114 417 353 76 105 28 1 21 67 6 2 56 73 .297 .388 .561 .949 130 198 6 1 0 7 1 97/3
2001 25 HOU NL 156 688 577 110 191 55 5 34 126 7 9 92 121 .331 .430 .620 1.051 160 358 8 13 0 6 5 *78/9
2002 26 HOU NL 158 692 578 106 169 35 2 42 128 8 4 107 118 .292 .405 .578 .982 150 334 10 4 0 3 20 *879
2003 27 HOU NL 153 658 538 110 155 35 6 25 93 5 3 107 108 .288 .412 .515 .927 138 277 10 9 1 3 13 *7/8
2004 28 HOU NL 160 687 544 104 172 40 3 30 106 9 7 127 101 .316 .450 .566 1.016 159 308 10 10 0 6 14 *97/38
2005 29 HOU NL 132 565 468 76 137 34 1 24 82 4 1 91 72 .293 .411 .524 .934 143 245 18 4 0 2 12 379/D
2006 30 HOU NL 152 646 536 95 169 29 0 45 136 3 2 98 106 .315 .420 .621 1.041 163 333 11 4 0 8 22 *39/7D
2007 31 HOU NL 153 668 561 95 156 24 2 34 102 7 3 94 125 .278 .386 .510 .896 130 286 11 8 0 5 11 *39/8D
2008 32 HOU NL 159 665 554 114 173 46 4 29 106 18 4 99 108 .312 .420 .567 .986 159 314 13 7 0 5 18 *3/D
2009 33 HOU NL 136 562 460 73 126 31 1 25 80 7 4 97 98 .274 .399 .509 .907 140 234 13 1 0 4 14 *3
2010 34 TOT MLB 117 465 391 47 100 23 1 14 57 3 2 74 82 .256 .374 .427 .801 118 167 17 0 0 0 7 3D

And it's not like he is 50, he is 34(he was injured this year) and he should reach milestones like 400 HRs (500?) and/or 2000 hits and/or 1500 walks.

His career 145 OPS+ is one of the best by any active player not named Pujols.

as a switch hitter, who also didn't play first as much as people think he did, he was an outfielder.

But he would really need to up his career value before being considered in the hall. He needs a few more elite seasons to get there. Or like 8-10 more above average seasons at least.

ShinobiNYC
09-23-2010, 10:05 PM
Posada had a better career than at least 6 current HOF catchers...I named them in another thread, I'll do it again tomorrow if need be(it's late here).

ShinobiNYC
09-23-2010, 10:06 PM
as a switch hitter, who also didn't play first as much as people think he did, he was an outfielder.

But he would really need to up his career value before being considered in the hall. He needs a few more elite seasons to get there. Or like 8-10 more above average seasons at least.

In my mind is better than players like Ichiro or Jeter....But the thing is those 2 have the sexy numbers.

bagwell368
09-23-2010, 10:06 PM
Berkman was elite:


Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos
2000 24 HOU NL 114 417 353 76 105 28 1 21 67 6 2 56 73 .297 .388 .561 .949 130 198 6 1 0 7 1 97/3
2001 25 HOU NL 156 688 577 110 191 55 5 34 126 7 9 92 121 .331 .430 .620 1.051 160 358 8 13 0 6 5 *78/9
2002 26 HOU NL 158 692 578 106 169 35 2 42 128 8 4 107 118 .292 .405 .578 .982 150 334 10 4 0 3 20 *879
2003 27 HOU NL 153 658 538 110 155 35 6 25 93 5 3 107 108 .288 .412 .515 .927 138 277 10 9 1 3 13 *7/8
2004 28 HOU NL 160 687 544 104 172 40 3 30 106 9 7 127 101 .316 .450 .566 1.016 159 308 10 10 0 6 14 *97/38
2005 29 HOU NL 132 565 468 76 137 34 1 24 82 4 1 91 72 .293 .411 .524 .934 143 245 18 4 0 2 12 379/D
2006 30 HOU NL 152 646 536 95 169 29 0 45 136 3 2 98 106 .315 .420 .621 1.041 163 333 11 4 0 8 22 *39/7D
2007 31 HOU NL 153 668 561 95 156 24 2 34 102 7 3 94 125 .278 .386 .510 .896 130 286 11 8 0 5 11 *39/8D
2008 32 HOU NL 159 665 554 114 173 46 4 29 106 18 4 99 108 .312 .420 .567 .986 159 314 13 7 0 5 18 *3/D
2009 33 HOU NL 136 562 460 73 126 31 1 25 80 7 4 97 98 .274 .399 .509 .907 140 234 13 1 0 4 14 *3
2010 34 TOT MLB 117 465 391 47 100 23 1 14 57 3 2 74 82 .256 .374 .427 .801 118 167 17 0 0 0 7 3D

And it's not like he is 50, he is 34(he was injured this year) and he should reach milestones like 400 HRs (500?) and/or 2000 hits and/or 1500 walks.

His career 145 OPS+ is one of the best by any active player not named Pujols.

He's been injured for a couple of years in a row.


His OBP the last 3 years is: .420, .399, .374
His SLG the last 3 years is: .567, .509, .427

He doesn't have a true 10 year peak either - '05 and '07 were down years.

While he retains his batting eye, his bat velocity has dropped a good deal since his salad days. If the Pirates of the world want a .275/.375/.430 guy with a bad glove then he might get some years, but I do not see it. Two more years of frustration followed by retirement. Too many guys that I just listed in my last Helton post sittting in front of him. No.

thefeckcampaign
09-23-2010, 10:07 PM
131 ops+ with great defense at a good position? great defense at a bad position? poor defense at any position?

and how many p.a's...all are variables.

Bobby isn't a hall of famer any more than Todd Helton is. He was a great player, his awesomely high on base average is what made him so valuable.

He did steal bases, got on base, hit for some power, played solid D. just not quite a hall of famer.This is a prime stat of his I cannot stand. He would just steal second in the most worthless of times. It was as if he was thinking to himself how he needs to keep up with his total desired pace for the year.

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 10:08 PM
I think Jeter is a first ballot, and Ichiro will be.

Berkman has some work to do, so does Posada, Helton and Abreu.

If Andruw Jones had declined two years later, he would be in, Rolen, Edmonds, Whitaker, Blyleven, all deserve to get in.

Posada isn't done yet, but I don't see his hall of fame resume good enough for acceptance.

ShinobiNYC
09-23-2010, 10:08 PM
Berkman has 46 WAR in his career...He is far from done that's the thing.

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 10:10 PM
This is a prime stat of his I cannot stand. He would just steal second in the most worthless of times. It was as if he was thinking to himself how he needs to keep up with his total desired pace for the year.

Well to be honest, I don't really consider stolen bases to be a very valuable stat either...unless you steal something stupid, career wise, 500 minimum, it shouldn't really matter...especially if you get caught a lot.

I would rather have a Scott Rolen, a player that has the highest percentage of successfully making it first to third on a single to the outfield of any player...

But those aren't the kinds of things hall of fame voters see.

They see 300 stolen bases AND 300 homers....he is a lock!!!!!!

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 10:10 PM
Berkman has 46 WAR in his career...He is far from done that's the thing.

I would put money that he isn't playing at age 38

ShaqShoes
09-23-2010, 10:11 PM
Jeter
Arod
Ichiro
Chipper Jones
Thome
Halladay
Pettitte
Pujols
Vizquel
Johan- hopefully his career gets back on track
Rivera
Hoffmann

Maybe I'm playing it safe but Cooperstown is ALOT easier to make than for example the basketball hall of fame.

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 10:14 PM
Omar Vizquel is an interesting conversation.

Ozzie good on offense...(not hard to do) but wasn't Ozzie good on defense, even though he was amazing on D.

He just doesn't reach Cooperstown in my mind either...although, if he did get in, I would be very happy for him, and pleased to see his name there.

I just don't think he was a hall of famer, Ozzie gets in because his defense was ******** good....and he was incredibly popular...Omar, not so much, and even though his defense was elite good, it wasn't as good as say Ozzie's...and his offense wasn't any better.

Ozzie should have barely gotten in, first ballot, I guess doesn't matter....but Omar IMO, just misses

Jeffy25
09-23-2010, 10:15 PM
I mean Ozzie is one of five guys to save 200 runs of defense in his career...Omar isn't half that.

bagwell368
09-23-2010, 10:20 PM
You can't just discredit what Helton did at home

But I do. Just like I ding Koufax, Sutton, and Drysdale at LAD - except Helton's park was at times more then double the effect the other way. I'll give Helton the average ML delta of home over road, which is probably 3-4 OPS+ at home. Not a HOF.

By the way Walker who is a stronger candidate then Helton (and one I would be more likely to vote for) may not get much support due to Coors. For one thing he had a prior home park to Coors (and after). Walker was 128 OPS+ for Montreal and 134 for St.Louis. He was also an amazing glove in RF.

bagwell368
09-23-2010, 10:27 PM
I agree he doesn't rank as highly at his position.

But Posada's offensive numbers are waaaay behind that of Helton and Berkmans. It's not even close enough to say his defensive value is close enough to argue it. Do you believe in career WAR? Then surely you can see that Berkman = Posada

It's not even close enough to consider them equivalent.

And Berkman played the outfield more than he played first.

And rings are a team accomplishment, have very little (or should) to do with a player going into the hall....it isn't Griffey's fault he didn't win a ring.

You are letting numbers replace common sense in this case. Outside Bench, Carter, Ivan, and a small handful of others, career games at catcher are much lower then other positions. Let's find out what the 20th guy is in games caught vs. all the other positions - whoa. Next consider all the injuries catchers sustain. Notice older guys like Tek, Barajas etc. have great Aprils and Mays? Then got to ****? Is it because they are old, or because they are dinged, too dinged to hit well, but healthy enough to field the position.

You just earlier tonight made the 3B argument about under representation - which I have been spouting for at least 15 years, and Bill James before me. One of the big reasons is the lack of 3B that stay healthy in their 30's. So, it's OK for 3B to get consideration, but not catchers?

bagwell368
09-23-2010, 10:30 PM
I would put money that he isn't playing at age 38

I bet a year earlier. He looks so bad since June '09... sometimes it happens. This is one of those times, no HOF for you Mr. Berkman.

FXMAN
09-23-2010, 10:31 PM
I agree he doesn't rank as highly at his position.

But Posada's offensive numbers are waaaay behind that of Helton and Berkmans. It's not even close enough to say his defensive value is close enough to argue it. Do you believe in career WAR? Then surely you can see that Berkman = Posada

It's not even close enough to consider them equivalent.

And Berkman played the outfield more than he played first.

And rings are a team accomplishment, have very little (or should) to do with a player going into the hall....it isn't Griffey's fault he didn't win a ring.


How can you compare Posada's numbers to that of Berkman or Helton? Catchers are held in a much different regard than any other position. How many catchers have hit over 300 home runs? Oh that's right 5, how many have hit over 400? 0 . Posada sits at 261 ranking him 8th all time for catchers and may push for 300

How many catchers have over 1000 Rbi's in there career? Only 10 and Posada is one of them.

How many Catchers with at least 5000 Ab's have an OBP of .370 or higher? 11 and Posada Ranks 8th.

bagwell368
09-23-2010, 10:36 PM
Omar Vizquel is an interesting conversation.

Ozzie good on offense...(not hard to do) but wasn't Ozzie good on defense, even though he was amazing on D.

He just doesn't reach Cooperstown in my mind either...although, if he did get in, I would be very happy for him, and pleased to see his name there.

I just don't think he was a hall of famer, Ozzie gets in because his defense was ******** good....and he was incredibly popular...Omar, not so much, and even though his defense was elite good, it wasn't as good as say Ozzie's...and his offense wasn't any better.

Ozzie should have barely gotten in, first ballot, I guess doesn't matter....but Omar IMO, just misses

For his time he was an average bat - 649 RAR in 10778 PA's is testament to that. That's far in excess of Maz for instance. He is clearly one of the 8 best SS's of all time by value, Vizquel is hovering around #15. Vizquel couldn't carry Ozzie's jock.

thefeckcampaign
09-23-2010, 11:07 PM
How can you compare Posada's numbers to that of Berkman or Helton? Catchers are held in a much different regard than any other position. How many catchers have hit over 300 home runs? Oh that's right 5, how many have hit over 400? 0 . Posada sits at 261 ranking him 8th all time for catchers and may push for 300

How many catchers have over 1000 Rbi's in there career? Only 10 and Posada is one of them.

How many Catchers with at least 5000 Ab's have an OBP of .370 or higher? 11 and Posada Ranks 8th.Not saying Posada isn't one of them, but I have no problem taking the position into consideration if the player is a good defender. Piazza comes to mind in the opposite thought. Though there is a wear 'n tear with the position, I don't think his offense should be simply compared to catchers alone considering how below average he was as a defender especially throwing runners out.

My feeling is the same with positions where offensive numbers are usually high and defense is sometimes considered secondary such as 1B. Why shouldn't a person like Keith Hernandez get bonus points for being extraordinary at his position and a good hitter just not at the same level as most HOFers? Not saying KH is a HOFer, but I think people need look at things in a different light before really saying no. I question sometimes if they really do.

misterd
09-24-2010, 12:41 AM
Derek Jeter, Jim Thome, Chipper Jones, Todd Helton, Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Roy Halladay, Johan Santana, Ichiro, Pudge, Pujols, Vlad,.

Can't think of anyone else. I don't see how guys like A-rod and Manny are "locks" when you don't know how the voters will treat them since they used PEDS.

Players that are close maybe second or third ballot - Omar Vizquel, Billy Wagner, Miguel Tejada, Jason Giambi, Michael Young, Tim Hudson, Andy Pettitte, Carlos Delgado, Papi.


I think Bonds and Clemmens left at the wrong time. They never had a chance to do anything to take the taste of PEDs away from our memories. Pretty much everything we've heard about those guys (and others) has been about PEDs since they left the game.

Guys like ARod, Manny, Pudge, etc have been continuing their careers. It sort of forces us to move on and focus on other stuff SO LONG AS they do not get caught again.

The only thing that I believe will be an obstacle to many of these guys is the first ballot. ARod is making it, Pudge and Manny most likely will too. But there will be enough who want to get their last shots in by making them wait a bit.

Bronzbomba
09-24-2010, 01:03 AM
My stance on the hall and steroids is as follows: Bonds will make it into the hall because he was just so much better than anyone in his era. This will then open the floodgates and writers will be more willing to let other steroid users in.

koLohe2133
09-24-2010, 01:11 AM
juan pierre!

Montana_Rob
09-24-2010, 01:17 AM
My list: Jeter, Posada, Hoffman, Rivera, Ichiro, Vlad, Pujols, C Jones

what about sheffield. I know he isnt active this year but was last so he is not far gone. Do yall think he will get voted in? he does have some steriod question marks

AnkleBreaker28
09-24-2010, 01:25 AM
not trying to be a homer and i know he is still somewhat young but how can u leave out JOE MAUER if he stays healthy, will probably go down as the best catcher ever!

Mr Haha
09-24-2010, 02:40 AM
not trying to be a homer and i know he is still somewhat young but how can u leave out JOE MAUER if he stays healthy, will probably go down as the best catcher ever!


Take it easy, cowboy. Long way to go. I know people on PSD don't value longevity (why, I'm not sure), but there is a reason certain players end up with "sexy stats" as someone put it earlier: it is because they prove themselves to be the real deal over the long haul, not a flash in the pan. And because, as first ballot HOFer Derek Jeter says: "You rest when you're injured. You play when you're hurt."

thefeckcampaign
09-24-2010, 07:39 AM
My stance on the hall and steroids is as follows: Bonds will make it into the hall because he was just so much better than anyone in his era. This will then open the floodgates and writers will be more willing to let other steroid users in.If this does happen, it will happen because the generation that played with him and watched him are now the ones are the majority as the older generations, who most purist are, will be dying off.

I have a feeling though Bonds will be to PED's in what Rose is to gambling.

Kinsm
09-24-2010, 08:03 AM
Yes (not all 1st ballot though) - Jeter, Chipper, Griffey, Thome, Pujols, Ichiro, Rivera, Hoffman, Posada, Wagner (barely), Vlad

Yes (depending on Roid reactions) - ARod, ManRam, Pudge

Leaning towards no, or still has work to do (some have alot of work to do) - Vizquel, Pettitte, Moyer, Helton, Tejada, Delgado, Berkman, Rolen, D. Ortiz, Edmonds, Maggs, A. Jones, Abreu, Damon

Down the road posssible (trying to include players with 5+ seasons) - Mauer, M. Cabrera, Teixeira, Howard, Dunn, Fielder, Utley, Cano, HanRam, Wright, M. Young, Beltre, Hunter, Holliday, Beltran, Halladay, Santana, Sabathia, Oswalt, Hudson, F. Rodriguez

quade36
09-24-2010, 08:27 AM
Omar Vizquel is an interesting conversation.

Ozzie good on offense...(not hard to do) but wasn't Ozzie good on defense, even though he was amazing on D.

He just doesn't reach Cooperstown in my mind either...although, if he did get in, I would be very happy for him, and pleased to see his name there.

I just don't think he was a hall of famer, Ozzie gets in because his defense was ******** good....and he was incredibly popular...Omar, not so much, and even though his defense was elite good, it wasn't as good as say Ozzie's...and his offense wasn't any better.

Ozzie should have barely gotten in, first ballot, I guess doesn't matter....but Omar IMO, just misses

Uh, Omar is 205 hits away from 3000. I know he is 43, but with the way he played this year, he definitely could play a few more years. So what you are saying is when all is said and done he could be the second baseball player in its history to eclipse 3000 hits and not make the Hall.

Oh well.....

Pinstripe pride
09-24-2010, 08:30 AM
RA dickey

Kinsm
09-24-2010, 08:40 AM
Wily Taveras

bagwell368
09-24-2010, 09:26 AM
Berkman and Posada's career value are almost equal

There has been a lot of debate that FanGraphs formula for positional value and runs saved at catcher (and the total lack of input from Zone Ratings) understates actual catcher values by a notable amount.

I do not think you can take a 1B that gets 11000 PA's and averages 150 games played a year over 15 years as a comparison to a catcher that has 7500 PA's and averages 128 games played per year over 12 years and say that mon dieu the 1B is a more valuable player.

Given the possibility that WAR is unfair to catchers vs. other position players (esp. OF's, DH's, and 1B), then the only way to compare catchers is against each other.

While you are looking at Posada given the wear and tear he went through, it's quite fair IMO to peek in on his post season work. 441 PA's (that's about 80% of a catchers season) at .239/.351/.384 (when he's been beat from long seasons against better then average pitching) with 4 rings. He doesn't get a boost from that? I think that he does, a big one. 1678 games started as a ML catcher (and still counting), 28 games at 1B, 112 games at DH, 7181 PA's MLB total PA's. Where does that all rank for catchers?

Well it puts him in front of Bill Freehan whom a fair amount of people support for the HOF, and the rest see as near HOF. He's not that far behind Dickey and Cochrane on paper, but clearly he plays in a tougher era then they did. A lot of people talk Ted Simmons for his stick. But Simmons's career is over, he did nothing in the postseason (correction nothing good). 110 more games at catcher and Posada will tie Simmons for games caught in the ML's. Posada still has to go some to match Simmons games played away from the plate - 124 more actually. Posada already has Simmons IMO. Simmons is another guy that gets a lot of support for the HOF. Breshnahan is in the HOF, and Posada is better then he was - and isolating his games caught only - 974, he's not even close to Posada. Lombardi is another one - great hitter, seen to be the slowest base runner of all time, and a meh fielder - and a HOF - not better then Posada. Another one that sucked in the post season.

He's clearly a low tier HOF, but he is clearly a HOF'er, that cap, and his post season longevity, and contribution to the rings is going to sail him there, probably between years 3-6 of his candidacy.

bagwell368
09-24-2010, 09:43 AM
Uh, Omar is 205 hits away from 3000. I know he is 43, but with the way he played this year, he definitely could play a few more years. So what you are saying is when all is said and done he could be the second baseball player in its history to eclipse 3000 hits and not make the Hall.

Oh well.....

What good really is a hitter that needs over 12000 PA's for 3k (and about 10850 BA's)? A hitter that has been at or a bit above average in OPS+ for his position 7 of the last 14 years, and 2 of the last six.

It's the same question for Damon if he manages it.

When 3k hits was seen as a standard, few players made it past 15 year careers, and they played 154 games a season. Things change, pretty soon that 300 win threshold to get in the HOF will drop to 250. HR hitters that only hit HR's and walk (Dunn/Thome types) will not get in for 500, but probably need 550 or more. And singles hitters that walk a bit, and play for 24 years are going to have to do more then just hit 3k singles. Vizquel has his glove of course, but 7 of his 22 seasons he wasn't a regular were they?

Also Vizquel has only had 5 really good glove years since 1993, right after his first 4 amazing years. Since 1993 he has had TEN years when he was average or worse with the glove. On balance he's still an elite defender for his career, but not the Oh My God stuff people claim for him. It's the same for Alomar. He was so great from 20-25, and so big with the stick from 23-33 that everyone assumes he was great always - no way. He sucked his last few years.

bagwell368
09-24-2010, 09:55 AM
Not saying Posada isn't one of them, but I have no problem taking the position into consideration if the player is a good defender. Piazza comes to mind in the opposite thought. Though there is a wear 'n tear with the position, I don't think his offense should be simply compared to catchers alone considering how below average he was as a defender especially throwing runners out.

My feeling is the same with positions where offensive numbers are usually high and defense is sometimes considered secondary such as 1B. Why shouldn't a person like Keith Hernandez get bonus points for being extraordinary at his position and a good hitter just not at the same level as most HOFers? Not saying KH is a HOFer, but I think people need look at things in a different light before really saying no. I question sometimes if they really do.

Easy one first. KH gets bonus points because 1B still has some value to it, not much, but some (more then pitcher), and just a bit less then LF and RF.

OK, without looking at the exact numbers I believe the MLB CS% rate by catchers over the past 20 years hovers between 28-33%. Posada owns a 28% career mark. He was more 35% earlier, and has sagged a bit towards the 20% range the past few years.

Think Tek is super defensive catcher? He is a career 24% CS guy, and he has never once been over 28%. God knows he can't hit like Posada.

Posada is a below average fielder, but he is not awful - not close to awful. He takes a small hit, then has his offense, his longevity, and his long and fine post season record against a field of guys that has few stellar players and few long lasting players.

irishfan1582
09-24-2010, 10:16 AM
I know it's a long shot, especially with the way his offensive number have dropped off so dramatically the past few years, but it's hard to overlook the fact that Andrew Jones was at one point considered the greatest defensive CF ever. 10 straight Gold Gloves is a huge accomplishment. Not to mention by the time he finally does hang it up he could be looking at 450HRs and 1500RBIs.

CheeznWingz
09-24-2010, 10:42 AM
Matt Stairs:worthy:

Pinstripe pride
09-24-2010, 10:46 AM
mr. world series, eric hinske

Jeffy25
09-24-2010, 11:05 AM
You are letting numbers replace common sense in this case. Outside Bench, Carter, Ivan, and a small handful of others, career games at catcher are much lower then other positions. Let's find out what the 20th guy is in games caught vs. all the other positions - whoa. Next consider all the injuries catchers sustain. Notice older guys like Tek, Barajas etc. have great Aprils and Mays? Then got to ****? Is it because they are old, or because they are dinged, too dinged to hit well, but healthy enough to field the position.

You just earlier tonight made the 3B argument about under representation - which I have been spouting for at least 15 years, and Bill James before me. One of the big reasons is the lack of 3B that stay healthy in their 30's. So, it's OK for 3B to get consideration, but not catchers?

I agree that catchers are under represented as well, but that doesn't mean that Posada should get into the hall, or an A.J. Pierz or those kinds of guys.

Larry is a hall of famer IMO, but that doesn't completely leave Helton out, they are only separated by 10 career WAR, and Walker did have less impressive offensive numbers, other than slugging, which obviously boosted his ops and ops +.

Even if we were to lower the career WAR criteria for catchers to allow Posada in, are you really ready to let guys like Gene Tenace in?

And a big reason Posada has so few games caught when compared to many of the others is that he didn't play a full season until he was 26...I think that is going to really lower the career value of a player. You mention 5 world series rings, but he was the back up on how many of those? 3?

I'm sorry a career 46 WAR, which adjusts for catcher difficulty, is not hall of fame good. He needs to be able to put up 4 more good seasons to even get into the conversation. He isn't there with Pudge, Piazza, Bench etc.

And Helton isn't a hall of famer either, I believe you know that I have said that....but his 424 obp is pretty freaking great

Jeffy25
09-24-2010, 11:22 AM
How can you compare Posada's numbers to that of Berkman or Helton? Catchers are held in a much different regard than any other position. How many catchers have hit over 300 home runs? Oh that's right 5, how many have hit over 400? 0 . Posada sits at 261 ranking him 8th all time for catchers and may push for 300

How many catchers have over 1000 Rbi's in there career? Only 10 and Posada is one of them.

How many Catchers with at least 5000 Ab's have an OBP of .370 or higher? 11 and Posada Ranks 8th.

It is one thing to adjust for position, it is another for Posada to be a fifth the hitter of Helton or Berkman.

The argument was that Posada's defense flies him past Helton and Berkman, but it doesn't. His offense is so far behind, that his overall career value is very similar to that of Berkman, and behind Helton.

I don't care about his home runs or his rbi's, I care what his value is to his team and to the game. And Posada has played a solid catcher for the last decade, but he isn't a hall of famer anymore than Lance Berkman is.

Jeffy25
09-24-2010, 11:27 AM
not trying to be a homer and i know he is still somewhat young but how can u leave out JOE MAUER if he stays healthy, will probably go down as the best catcher ever!

Mauer still has a long way to go before he reaches Bench's status...but it is very possible.

as far as Sheffield.

He is borderline, and i think makes it, but barely. I would probably vote him in.

Philliefan90
09-24-2010, 11:29 AM
Chase utley :hide:

This isnt even being a homer. Hes going to be one of the best 2b of all time by the end of his career.

Jeffy25
09-24-2010, 11:33 AM
Uh, Omar is 205 hits away from 3000. I know he is 43, but with the way he played this year, he definitely could play a few more years. So what you are saying is when all is said and done he could be the second baseball player in its history to eclipse 3000 hits and not make the Hall.

Oh well.....

I absolutely hate counting stats, you play long enough, and some idiot will consider 3000 hits, or 500 home runs an automatic lock for the hall.

If you play 20 seasons, and average 150 base hits, and none of those seasons were anything special, you would apparently be a lock for the hall.


Guess how many players already have 150 base hits this season? 50, and the season isn't over, by the time the season ends, it will be more like 70. So that means if any, single player, plays long enough, and is in the top 70 of that counting stat, they would be a lock?

3000 hits shouldn't get you in, it may be impressive, but there are other and better ways to find out how valuable a player was in his time. It is a good measure, but it's not like a guy with 2950 career base hits is that less valuable than a guy with 3050 career base hits, they played a half season less.

Jeffy25
09-24-2010, 11:36 AM
What good really is a hitter that needs over 12000 PA's for 3k (and about 10850 BA's)? A hitter that has been at or a bit above average in OPS+ for his position 7 of the last 14 years, and 2 of the last six.

It's the same question for Damon if he manages it.

When 3k hits was seen as a standard, few players made it past 15 year careers, and they played 154 games a season. Things change, pretty soon that 300 win threshold to get in the HOF will drop to 250. HR hitters that only hit HR's and walk (Dunn/Thome types) will not get in for 500, but probably need 550 or more. And singles hitters that walk a bit, and play for 24 years are going to have to do more then just hit 3k singles. Vizquel has his glove of course, but 7 of his 22 seasons he wasn't a regular were they?

Also Vizquel has only had 5 really good glove years since 1993, right after his first 4 amazing years. Since 1993 he has had TEN years when he was average or worse with the glove. On balance he's still an elite defender for his career, but not the Oh My God stuff people claim for him. It's the same for Alomar. He was so great from 20-25, and so big with the stick from 23-33 that everyone assumes he was great always - no way. He sucked his last few years.

good post

Jeffy25
09-24-2010, 11:37 AM
I know it's a long shot, especially with the way his offensive number have dropped off so dramatically the past few years, but it's hard to overlook the fact that Andrew Jones was at one point considered the greatest defensive CF ever. 10 straight Gold Gloves is a huge accomplishment. Not to mention by the time he finally does hang it up he could be looking at 450HRs and 1500RBIs.

He really, just peaked two years too soon IMO...and he could still get there, but he has quite a bit of work to do.

Jeffy25
09-24-2010, 11:38 AM
This isnt even being a homer. Hes going to be one of the best 2b of all time by the end of his career.

He really could be, not Hornsby good, but top 5 for sure. He has that possibility.

I have a hard time seeing him as the greatest ever, I think he could rival Bobby Girch in terms of value.

bagwell368
09-24-2010, 12:43 PM
I know it's a long shot, especially with the way his offensive number have dropped off so dramatically the past few years, but it's hard to overlook the fact that Andrew Jones was at one point considered the greatest defensive CF ever. 10 straight Gold Gloves is a huge accomplishment. Not to mention by the time he finally does hang it up he could be looking at 450HRs and 1500RBIs.

I'm not sure he is the best defensive CF of all time - he's got to contend with Mays and Blair among guys I have seen, but his '97 - '06 period he was far ahead of even very good CF's such as Edmonds, miles ahead of media frauds like Hunter. Gutierrez is the only guy going now (that I can think of) that appears to be in the same league as AJ's best years.

He didn't walk much, his OPS+ isn't that great. He gave up stolen bases early on. He has played well in the playoffs (about 1/2 seasons worth).

And that is all w/o the juice question. He appears to either be a good deal older then claimed, or a lot of his power wasn't natural. He's way below Black Ink and Gray Ink Standards, and ZERO of his comps are HOF's. Although he has a shot at two of them becoming so. The list of 10 is a who's who of the greatest not HOF players ever:

Colavito
Jack Clark
Jim Edmonds
Matt Williams
Dale Murphy
Frank Howard
George Foster
Jermaine Dye
Ron Gant
Fred Lynn

He's got zero shot at 1500 RBI's, maybe 1400. His sudden and mysterious drop-off around the time ML got serious about the junk will follow him like a shadow forever. No.

bagwell368
09-24-2010, 12:58 PM
Even if we were to lower the career WAR criteria for catchers to allow Posada in, are you really ready to let guys like Gene Tenace in?

And a big reason Posada has so few games caught when compared to many of the others is that he didn't play a full season until he was 26...I think that is going to really lower the career value of a player.

I'm sorry a career 46 WAR, which adjusts for catcher difficulty, is not hall of fame good. He needs to be able to put up 4 more good seasons to even get into the conversation. He isn't there with Pudge, Piazza, Bench etc.

And Helton isn't a hall of famer either, I believe you know that I have said that....but his 424 obp is pretty freaking great

Tenance was massively underrated during his 8 year run of silly great OBP marks, since nobody cared then, but even I noticed he was a master of the strike zone. There are 3 strikes against Tenace, he only has 5525 career PA's which is very low; His post season of 148 PA's was poor; and finally and worst of all - he played - 892 games at catcher and 659 games at other positions were defense matters much less (625 of them at 1B). So he wasn't a borderline 50 WAR catcher, he was a 20-25 WAR catcher. He had years such as this:

1973: 134 games at 1B - 35 games at C
1974: 106 games at 1B - 79 games at C (yes he actually switched in game)
1975: 068 games at 1B - 125 games at C
1976: 070 games at 1B - 62 games at C
1977: 036 games at 1B - 99 games at C
1978: 80 games at 1B - 71 games at C

If we go to games started at catcher he falls to 759 from 892

BTW care to guess when he had his best offensive years? That's right, when he wasn't catching all the time, so his offensive bulge is due to getting him away from C - he's not even in Posada's continent as a great catcher. BTW I hate the Skanks, and I used to down rate Posada all the time, but the damn guy keeps playing like a metronome.

In terms of the WS (part time?):

1998: (3/4) games: 11 PA's
1999: (2/4) games: 08 PA's
2000: (5/5) games: 23 PA's
2001: (7/7) games: 26 PA's
2003: (6/6) games: 24 PA's
2009: (6/6) games: 22 PA's

You said "You mention 5 world series rings, but he was the back up on how many of those? 3?"

The man played in 29 of the 32 games his team has played in the WS since 1998 - that includes a full dance card in the last 4 Series, and 5 out of 8 in the first two.


BTW, Helton's road OBP is .393 - very nice, but hardly the massively biased .453 he put up at home.

Helton's OPS in Coors (combined) is 1.726

next closest is Minute Maid at 1.155

So in the next closest lauching pad he played in, he was down a full .571, that must be around Mazeroski's lifetime OPS (oops, no Maz is at .667 - so 86% of Maz's OPS is how much falls to just the #2 place he HAS EVER PLAYED). Think about it, and explain it. He really likes the grits and sirloin at home, hunh?

Among bigger/tougher parks he played in:

LAD: .785 OPS in 525 PA's
SBC: .756 in 362 PA's
HOU: .596 ((Dome) in 46 PA's when young - and below Maz!)
SDP: .802 in 206 PA's.

Yeah, I can see why someone would mistake him for a HOF. Let's drop it, I will never change my stance on Helton, he's a fraud IMO (or the stats are at any rate).

Jakeem
09-24-2010, 01:28 PM
I have a feeling that all of the National League MVPs of the 2000s will get in: Jeff Kent, Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols, Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard.

Jeffy25
09-24-2010, 01:38 PM
I'm not sure he is the best defensive CF of all time - he's got to contend with Mays and Blair among guys I have seen, but his '97 - '06 period he was far ahead of even very good CF's such as Edmonds, miles ahead of media frauds like Hunter. Gutierrez is the only guy going now (that I can think of) that appears to be in the same league as AJ's best years.

He didn't walk much, his OPS+ isn't that great. He gave up stolen bases early on. He has played well in the playoffs (about 1/2 seasons worth).

And that is all w/o the juice question. He appears to either be a good deal older then claimed, or a lot of his power wasn't natural. He's way below Black Ink and Gray Ink Standards, and ZERO of his comps are HOF's. Although he has a shot at two of them becoming so. The list of 10 is a who's who of the greatest not HOF players ever:

Colavito
Jack Clark
Jim Edmonds
Matt Williams
Dale Murphy
Frank Howard
George Foster
Jermaine Dye
Ron Gant
Fred Lynn

He's got zero shot at 1500 RBI's, maybe 1400. His sudden and mysterious drop-off around the time ML got serious about the junk will follow him like a shadow forever. No.

Unless Andruw Jones can pick it back up, he just isn't a hall of famer.

But his peak was one of the best we have seen, and his defensive ability was second to nobody for a solid decade.

Jeffy25
09-24-2010, 01:41 PM
Tenance was massively underrated during his 8 year run of silly great OBP marks, since nobody cared then, but even I noticed he was a master of the strike zone. There are 3 strikes against Tenace, he only has 5525 career PA's which is very low; His post season of 148 PA's was poor; and finally and worst of all - he played - 892 games at catcher and 659 games at other positions were defense matters much less (625 of them at 1B). So he wasn't a borderline 50 WAR catcher, he was a 20-25 WAR catcher. He had years such as this:

1973: 134 games at 1B - 35 games at C
1974: 106 games at 1B - 79 games at C (yes he actually switched in game)
1975: 068 games at 1B - 125 games at C
1976: 070 games at 1B - 62 games at C
1977: 036 games at 1B - 99 games at C
1978: 80 games at 1B - 71 games at C

If we go to games started at catcher he falls to 759 from 892

BTW care to guess when he had his best offensive years? That's right, when he wasn't catching all the time, so his offensive bulge is due to getting him away from C - he's not even in Posada's continent as a great catcher. BTW I hate the Skanks, and I used to down rate Posada all the time, but the damn guy keeps playing like a metronome.

In terms of the WS (part time?):

1998: (3/4) games: 11 PA's
1999: (2/4) games: 08 PA's
2000: (5/5) games: 23 PA's
2001: (7/7) games: 26 PA's
2003: (6/6) games: 24 PA's
2009: (6/6) games: 22 PA's

You said "You mention 5 world series rings, but he was the back up on how many of those? 3?"

The man played in 29 of the 32 games his team has played in the WS since 1998 - that includes a full dance card in the last 4 Series, and 5 out of 8 in the first two.


BTW, Helton's road OBP is .393 - very nice, but hardly the massively biased .453 he put up at home.

Helton's OPS in Coors (combined) is 1.726

next closest is Minute Maid at 1.155

So in the next closest lauching pad he played in, he was down a full .571, that must be around Mazeroski's lifetime OPS (oops, no Maz is at .667 - so 86% of Maz's OPS is how much falls to just the #2 place he HAS EVER PLAYED). Think about it, and explain it. He really likes the grits and sirloin at home, hunh?

Among bigger/tougher parks he played in:

LAD: .785 OPS in 525 PA's
SBC: .756 in 362 PA's
HOU: .596 ((Dome) in 46 PA's when young - and below Maz!)
SDP: .802 in 206 PA's.

Yeah, I can see why someone would mistake him for a HOF. Let's drop it, I will never change my stance on Helton, he's a fraud IMO (or the stats are at any rate).


Good sir, we may not agree on Posada, but I appreciate the thought you put into your posts and your ability to argue and do your research before making any decisions.

I still wouldn't vote Posada, Helton, Abreu, A. Jones, or Berkman in of the players we have discussed, but you bring up very good points.

I do have a hard time seeing how Posada is in, while Helton isn't.

I understand the park factor, and I understand that you want to compare players to their contemporaries at their positions...I understand it, I just don't agree with it.

Respectfully of course.

bagwell368
09-24-2010, 01:41 PM
This isnt even being a homer. Hes going to be one of the best 2b of all time by the end of his career.

He is? He wasn't a regular until he was 26. He turns 32 in December. He gets hit constantly. He's a fine maybe a great player, but he is about 5-6 years from low tier HOF discussion, about 10 years behind the 3 greats at the top of the 2B class.

Don't take any bets on it.

Jeffy25
09-24-2010, 01:42 PM
I have a feeling that all of the National League MVPs of the 2000s will get in: Jeff Kent, Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols, Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard.

I don't think Jimmy Rollins has a shot, the others, yes.

I don't think Ryan Howard should get in, unless he continues with some of his best seasons....but I bet voters put him in.

Kent, Bonds and Pujols are all basically locks for the hall...

Jeffy25
09-24-2010, 01:43 PM
He is? He wasn't a regular until he was 26. He turns 32 in December. He gets hit constantly. He's a fine maybe a great player, but he is about 5-6 years from low tier HOF discussion, about 10 years behind the 3 greats at the top of the 2B class.

Don't take any bets on it.

I honestly, think he could end up being a top 5-7 second basemen, even top 4. I haven't ruled him out, he isn't really slowing down, even though he got hurt this year.

bagwell368
09-24-2010, 01:46 PM
It is one thing to adjust for position, it is another for Posada to be a fifth the hitter of Helton or Berkman.

The argument was that Posada's defense flies him past Helton and Berkman, but it doesn't. His offense is so far behind, that his overall career value is very similar to that of Berkman, and behind Helton.

I don't care about his home runs or his rbi's, I care what his value is to his team and to the game. And Posada has played a solid catcher for the last decade, but he isn't a hall of famer anymore than Lance Berkman is.

Why are you comparing a catcher with 1B? It's counter actual real world reality/conditions. Piazza is probably the only catcher to play over 1000 games who has offensive stats that can bear up against the top 60 positional players of all time (all D removed).

Then as I already went over you have the injuries, dings, having to sit and all the rest that saps catchers. What is Bill Freehan the 12-15th best catcher ever. Care to tell me where he fits onto the 1B list? 123rd?

Even Gary Carter looks like a schlub, Fisk too. So there are only 4-5 elite HOF catchers and everyone else can't be considered because WAR is miscalulated and taken out of context?

bagwell368
09-24-2010, 01:49 PM
I honestly, think he could end up being a top 5-7 second basemen, even top 4. I haven't ruled him out, he isn't really slowing down, even though he got hurt this year.

Sure. Five more years and almost all are behind him, probably Biggio and Alomar - but Mt. Morgan looms in the distance, and that's a very tall order (too bad he's such a terrible announcer).

BoognishMN
09-24-2010, 02:22 PM
I don't think Jimmy Rollins has a shot, the others, yes.

I don't think Ryan Howard should get in, unless he continues with some of his best seasons....but I bet voters put him in.

Kent, Bonds and Pujols are all basically locks for the hall...

Howard: see Fielder, Cecil, and Vaughn, Mo. Clearly a good player, cut down on K's and learned to play average D, however with that body type I can't see him playing for long enough to put up 500 HR's or anyother magic number he would need to reach.

Jeffy25
09-24-2010, 03:02 PM
Sure. Five more years and almost all are behind him, probably Biggio and Alomar - but Mt. Morgan looms in the distance, and that's a very tall order (too bad he's such a terrible announcer).

No kidding.

Hornsby, Girch, Morgan, hell even Kent...all ahead of Utley, but I could see him reaching Kent status

ManningToTyree
09-24-2010, 04:11 PM
Its an interesting question, but I think there are a handful of guys still playing who will be going into the Hall of Fame. Now I don't mean who projects to go if they continue their career success, but who has done enough so far to get in. My picks:

Jeter (1st ballot)- YES
ARod (1st ballot even with the steroids)-NO
Pudge (greatest catcher of all time)-YES but not even close to greatest ever
Albert Pujols (1st ballot, his 3 MVPs are enough by themselves)-YES
Ichiro (1st ballot)-YES
Vlad-I say yes, but not a lock
Mariano Rivera-Yes
Trevor Hoffman-Yes

While the ones above are obvious, I think these guys would have a shot:

Jim Thome-Yes
Omar Vizquel-HELL NO
Manny Ramirez-NO

Thoughts?

my thoughts

Gunzito22
09-24-2010, 04:17 PM
great arguements for Jorge, Helton & Vizquel. IMO these guys will get it in our lifetimes. not a one of them is 1st ballot though. same with Pudge & Vlad. Pettitte is fringe to me today (another ring and maybe 2 more seasons lock it up for me).

Jeter, A-Rod, Mo, Pujols, Chipper, Thome, Ichiro all 1st ballot all day long.

Not buying Giambi, Berkman, Moyer, Damon or Abreu though. good to great players, but not HoF worthy.

all the rest are too soon to tell (Rollins, Cano, Utley, Cabrera, etc)

moyerfan
09-29-2010, 10:59 PM
Jamie Moyer ,Trevor Hoffman

Pinstripe pride
09-30-2010, 10:02 AM
sergio mitre

bringinwood
09-30-2010, 10:38 AM
The way I judge a " lock " for the hall of fame is... If their career ended today would they make it...

Halladay no...

Rollins no...

Utley no...

Howard no...

Ichiro no...

Santana, Vizquel, Ramirez... no, no, and no...

Did someone actually mention Lance Berkman ??? That astounded me...

The only " locks " right now would be ARod, Jeter, Pudge, and Thome...

Outside of that, there aren't any locks in baseball right now...

nithanyo
09-30-2010, 12:01 PM
Halladay as a Jay

bringinwood
09-30-2010, 01:29 PM
Halladay as a Jay

How does a guy who is two seasons away from 200 wins as well as 2000 ks a lock for the hall ???

I know Tony Perez got in but sheesh... Loose standards if you ask me...

I'm a die hard Phils fan too...

D1JM
09-30-2010, 01:45 PM
Its an interesting question, but I think there are a handful of guys still playing who will be going into the Hall of Fame. Now I don't mean who projects to go if they continue their career success, but who has done enough so far to get in. My picks:

Jeter (1st ballot)
ARod (1st ballot even with the steroids)
Pudge (greatest catcher of all time)
Albert Pujols (1st ballot, his 3 MVPs are enough by themselves)
Ichiro (1st ballot)
Vlad
Mariano Rivera
Trevor Hoffman

While the ones above are obvious, I think these guys would have a shot:

Jim Thome
Omar Vizquel
Manny Ramirez

Thoughts?

chipper jones

Jeffy25
09-30-2010, 01:56 PM
The way I judge a " lock " for the hall of fame is... If their career ended today would they make it...

Halladay no...

Rollins no...

Utley no...

Howard no...

Ichiro no...

Santana, Vizquel, Ramirez... no, no, and no...

Did someone actually mention Lance Berkman ??? That astounded me...

The only " locks " right now would be ARod, Jeter, Pudge, and Thome...

Outside of that, there aren't any locks in baseball right now...

Pujols

TO to the CHI
09-30-2010, 02:03 PM
Derek Jeter, Jim Thome, Chipper Jones, Todd Helton, Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Roy Halladay, Johan Santana, Ichiro, Pudge, Pujols, Vlad,.

Can't think of anyone else. I don't see how guys like A-rod and Manny are "locks" when you don't know how the voters will treat them since they used PEDS.

Players that are close maybe second or third ballot - Omar Vizquel, Billy Wagner, Miguel Tejada, Jason Giambi, Michael Young, Tim Hudson, Andy Pettitte, Carlos Delgado, Papi.

ARod is a complete locks. His documented steroid use was limited to a few seasons and his numbers have been dominant throughout his career. Not to mention his final totals will be too prolific to ignore. Manny is a slightly different story because he is also not well liked, which will hurt, but he likely gets in as well.

Most of the guys you have in your "close" section have virtually no shot unless they have several more years: Giambi, Hudson, Young, Tejada, Wagner specifically. Those guys are great players but have no crack at the hall. Also, it is hilarious that you include Giambi and Tejada and Papi in that category after the comment about steroids.

bringinwood
09-30-2010, 03:42 PM
Pujols

No not yet... He will make it but he isn't there...

He is close, but not a hall of famer just on his merits to date...

.332 408 1229 aren't hall of fame worthy...

The longevity isn't there...

He is well on his way to being a lock in 3 seasons...

He is top 30 all time in BA, slugging, OBS, and OBP...

He is really really close to a lock... He is as close to a lock without being Jeter as there is in baseball...

Jeffy25
09-30-2010, 04:06 PM
No not yet... He will make it but he isn't there...

He is close, but not a hall of famer just on his merits to date...

.332 408 1229 aren't hall of fame worthy...

The longevity isn't there...

He is well on his way to being a lock in 3 seasons...

He is top 30 all time in BA, slugging, OBS, and OBP...

He is really really close to a lock... He is as close to a lock without being Jeter as there is in baseball...


His ten years, career WAR over 80, and actually has the counting stats, it would be damn hard for someone to tell me that isn't a hall of famer, even if his numbers and accomplishments were spread out over 20 years, instead of 10

3 MVP's, 9 time all star, gold glove, silver slugger at three different positions, gold Glove, zero connection to steroids, world series ring...he has accomplished everything that a big leaguer hopes to accomplish...if he spread out his numbers over 20 years, he would still be in the hall.

CampShocker
09-30-2010, 04:21 PM
Jorge Posada. Not a first or 2nd but will get in on his offensive stats alone. He's put up some excellent offensive numbers for a catcher while playing one of the diamonds harder and most demanding Positions. I'm sure I'll get **** from Some people. He never changed positions ie. Biggio has a career OPS of 124 Higher than Fisk, Carter Simmons or I rod.
5 Time All Star, 5 Silver Slugger Awards, Finished in the top 10 for MVP Voting twice (Believe it or not), 5 World Series Rings and a Career 277/380/479 from a Catcher.

Posada, really?? Enough catcher talk, until someone mentions JOE MAUER. No American Leauge catcher had ever won a batting title until Joe, and he has 3 batting titles by the age of 26. He also recorded the modern day triple crown a year ago (along with the AL MVP), and had the highest batting average in a season by a catcher EVER. Still only 27 years old too. Add gold gloves, all-star games, and silver sluggers to the list..

bringinwood
09-30-2010, 04:24 PM
His ten years, career WAR over 80, and actually has the counting stats, it would be damn hard for someone to tell me that isn't a hall of famer, even if his numbers and accomplishments were spread out over 20 years, instead of 10

3 MVP's, 9 time all star, gold glove, silver slugger at three different positions, gold Glove, zero connection to steroids, world series ring...he has accomplished everything that a big leaguer hopes to accomplish...if he spread out his numbers over 20 years, he would still be in the hall.

I kind of thought you might have an idea about what you were talking about before this post... Good try though...

J-Loco
09-30-2010, 04:36 PM
Very good point. I still respect him and think he deserves credit, ya never know maybe he'll make it one day.

How about David Ortiz? I know he falls in the steroid category, but based on numbers and defense he doesn't seem to be that far off.

Ortiz= No and it has nothing to do with him being in Boston or a user of the juice.

Jeffy25
09-30-2010, 04:44 PM
I kind of thought you might have an idea about what you were talking about before this post... Good try though...

uh huh, kthanxbye

jon32
09-30-2010, 04:59 PM
Joe Mauer will be if he continues with what he is doing

tbone2171
09-30-2010, 05:16 PM
Its an interesting question, but I think there are a handful of guys still playing who will be going into the Hall of Fame. Now I don't mean who projects to go if they continue their career success, but who has done enough so far to get in. My picks:

Jeter (1st ballot)
ARod (1st ballot even with the steroids)
Pudge (greatest catcher of all time)
Albert Pujols (1st ballot, his 3 MVPs are enough by themselves)
Ichiro (1st ballot)
Vlad
Mariano Rivera
Trevor Hoffman

While the ones above are obvious, I think these guys would have a shot:

Jim Thome
Omar Vizquel
Manny Ramirez

Thoughts?

:facepalm: that you would list ARod as a 1st ballot and Thome as having a shot

tbone2171
09-30-2010, 05:20 PM
ARod is a complete locks. His documented steroid use was limited to a few seasons and his numbers have been dominant throughout his career. Not to mention his final totals will be too prolific to ignore. Manny is a slightly different story because he is also not well liked, which will hurt, but he likely gets in as well.

Most of the guys you have in your "close" section have virtually no shot unless they have several more years: Giambi, Hudson, Young, Tejada, Wagner specifically. Those guys are great players but have no crack at the hall. Also, it is hilarious that you include Giambi and Tejada and Papi in that category after the comment about steroids.

Pete Rose was dominant and bet on baseball for a few seasons... Is he in the Hall of Fame?

B.G.B
09-30-2010, 05:28 PM
According to ESPN and the rest of the sports writers at the beginning of the season "Stephen Strasburg"

LOL what a joke ESPN has become.

carnage101
09-30-2010, 06:21 PM
i like posada but hes borderline. Longevity and one of the best hitting catchers in his era.

bagwell368
09-30-2010, 10:04 PM
I kind of thought you might have an idea about what you were talking about before this post... Good try though...

He does. All we know in your two posts is that you have a couple of opinions. You know what they say about that. Go ahead, and start a thread with some enlightening bon mot of wisdom.... I think I'll go get a good book, then go to bed, and have that party this Sat night, and maybe mid PM Sunday I'll check back. I won't be surprised unless you actually post something of interest.

bagwell368
09-30-2010, 10:06 PM
Pete Rose was dominant and bet on baseball for a few seasons... Is he in the Hall of Fame?

Rose was not dominant. He was a great or near great player for 4 years. The rest of it is longevity and greenies.

bagwell368
09-30-2010, 10:09 PM
Posada, really?? Enough catcher talk, until someone mentions JOE MAUER. No American Leauge catcher had ever won a batting title until Joe, and he has 3 batting titles by the age of 26. He also recorded the modern day triple crown a year ago (along with the AL MVP), and had the highest batting average in a season by a catcher EVER. Still only 27 years old too. Add gold gloves, all-star games, and silver sluggers to the list..

Posada has more claim to the HOF today then Mauer. I'd be shocked if Mauer caught over 600 more games the rest of his career. His bat is too valuable, and injuries to common not to make him a back-up and give him the DH job.

bagwell368
09-30-2010, 10:14 PM
No not yet... He will make it but he isn't there...

He is close, but not a hall of famer just on his merits to date...

.332 408 1229 aren't hall of fame worthy...

The longevity isn't there...

He is well on his way to being a lock in 3 seasons...

He is top 30 all time in BA, slugging, OBS, and OBP...

He is really really close to a lock... He is as close to a lock without being Jeter as there is in baseball...

If something happened to him and he couldn't play anymore he'd walk in on the 1st ballot. Counting stats don't tell the story here, try the slash stats. Or the MVP's, or the GG's.

Ever hear of Bill James? He went through the HOF'er, and figured out what they did that voters liked. There are 4 different ways of judging hitters, and he ranks all time 33rd, 32nd, 20th, and 69th - they are a mixture of counting stats, rate stats, Awards....

Right under your nose he's one of the 2-3 greatest right handed hitters of all time, and you can't even see it. Tragic.

RTL
09-30-2010, 11:36 PM
Rose was not dominant. He was a great or near great player for 4 years. The rest of it is longevity and greenies.

Rose had 10 straight seasons of 200 hits my friend and no one else played the game harder.

As to your remark about Bill James, if it was up to the Bill James' of the world Andre Dawson would not be a HOFer which would have been a shame. I can say that about a lot of the HOFers.

Randomsportsfan
09-30-2010, 11:56 PM
Mauer, pedroia, cliff lee, votto

Jeffy25
10-01-2010, 12:09 AM
Rose had 10 straight seasons of 200 hits my friend and no one else played the game harder.

As to your remark about Bill James, if it was up to the Bill James' of the world Andre Dawson would not be a HOFer which would have been a shame. I can say that about a lot of the HOFers.

Andre Dawson's career OBP is depressingly low.

I am not against him being in the hall, but I certainly would not have voted for him.

RTL
10-01-2010, 12:31 AM
One stat cannot sum up a career. Thank god the writers got it right. Not sure how old you are but if you saw him play, you knew you were seeing greatness and an elite player.

Jeffy25
10-01-2010, 12:40 AM
One stat cannot sum up a career. Thank god the writers got it right. Not sure how old you are but if you saw him play, you knew you were seeing greatness and an elite player.

I actually did get to see him play a few times, even once in Montreal...and more than a few times when he came to STL and played the Cardinals....he was definitely a great talent...but making and causing that many outs offensively is very very destructive to a teams overall value.

His arm, his athleticism, elite. His overall value in his career, IMO, was not enough to put him in the hall, I wouldn't have voted for him, but I am not crying that he got in....

A career 57 WAR, is still very very good, but he really needed a couple more of 87 seasons for me to consider voting for him....It isn't as bad as Jim Rice being in the hall

RTL
10-01-2010, 12:52 AM
To each their own I guess. To me, being one of the best all around OFers while you played is HOF worthy. Glad you got to see him play:) Not too many people in the 400 HRs/300 SB club

Jeffy25
10-01-2010, 01:17 AM
To each their own I guess. To me, being one of the best all around OFers while you played is HOF worthy. Glad you got to see him play:) Not too many people in the 400 HRs/300 SB club

That is for sure.

No Fun League
10-01-2010, 02:15 AM
Jim Thome!!!! Love that dude

idrinkpepsi
10-01-2010, 02:24 AM
Chipper Jones, Ichiro, Derek Jeter, Albert Pujols, Trever Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, Omar Vizquel, Jim Thome, Todd Helton, Manny, Pedro and A-Rod even without the steroids seasons. I think all of these guys will make it in to the hall at some point or another.

harlequin018
10-01-2010, 02:34 AM
No not yet... He will make it but he isn't there...

He is close, but not a hall of famer just on his merits to date...

.332 408 1229 aren't hall of fame worthy...

The longevity isn't there...

He is well on his way to being a lock in 3 seasons...

He is top 30 all time in BA, slugging, OBS, and OBP...

He is really really close to a lock... He is as close to a lock without being Jeter as there is in baseball...

Everyone with 3 MVPs or more is in the hall. If Albert retired tomorrow, he'd be a first ballot HoF. A lot of guys can play for a long time yet never be the best at their position. Pujols has been the best hitter in baseball for the majority of the decade.

Jeffy25
10-01-2010, 03:17 AM
Everyone with 3 MVPs or more is in the hall. If Albert retired tomorrow, he'd be a first ballot HoF. A lot of guys can play for a long time yet never be the best at their position. Pujols has been the best hitter in baseball for the majority of the decade.

Triple Crown winner of the decade ;)

bagwell368
10-01-2010, 07:58 AM
Rose had 10 straight seasons of 200 hits my friend and no one else played the game harder.

As to your remark about Bill James, if it was up to the Bill James' of the world Andre Dawson would not be a HOFer which would have been a shame. I can say that about a lot of the HOFers.

Dominant was the word used. Rose had 4 seasons above a 5.8 WAR - those were dominant.

'73 - 8.5
'69 - 6.9
'76 - 6.7
'72 - 6.3

Then six seasons over a 4.0 (very good)

Pujols has 9 seasons at 6.9 or better, his weakest season in 5.8 - that's dominant.

Rose played 24 seasons - 20 as a regular and managed 75.3 WAR (HOF level) in a whopping 15861 PA's

Pujols has played 10 seasons and has a 83.6 WAR in 6702 PA's

So Pujols has 10% more WAR then Rose in 42.2% of the PA's.

That's the difference between longevity (Rose, Yaz, etc. with a brief peak), and sustained dominance year in and year out.

bagwell368
10-01-2010, 08:06 AM
Chipper Jones, Ichiro, Derek Jeter, Albert Pujols, Trever Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, Omar Vizquel, Jim Thome, Todd Helton, Manny, Pedro and A-Rod even without the steroids seasons. I think all of these guys will make it in to the hall at some point or another.

Can't agree on Helton for reasons given in exhaustive detail in the past.

Vizquel would be a very borderline choice. The rest shouldn't have much trouble unless its juice.

As long as you mention Pedro - no Unit? no Maddux? no Clemens no Glavine - or is that because Pedro may yet pitch again?

Per inning Pedro is the greatest pitcher of all time, puts Koufax, WJ, Grove, and all the others into the shade. No pitcher has ever glued together a stretch of innings like he did from '97 thru '05 inclusive. I'm glad to say I saw over 95% of his starts from '99 thru '04. At his prime no pitcher ever commanded 3 pitches at the level he did. Once in a lifetime or longer talent. His only flaw is innings per year.

utl768
10-01-2010, 10:32 PM
jeter is a lock cuz of the rings

ShockerArt
10-01-2010, 11:01 PM
I actually did get to see him play a few times, even once in Montreal...and more than a few times when he came to STL and played the Cardinals....he was definitely a great talent...but making and causing that many outs offensively is very very destructive to a teams overall value.

His arm, his athleticism, elite. His overall value in his career, IMO, was not enough to put him in the hall, I wouldn't have voted for him, but I am not crying that he got in....

A career 57 WAR, is still very very good, but he really needed a couple more of 87 seasons for me to consider voting for him....It isn't as bad as Jim Rice being in the hall

Well said.

thefeckcampaign
10-01-2010, 11:49 PM
To each their own I guess. To me, being one of the best all around OFers while you played is HOF worthy. Glad you got to see him play:) Not too many people in the 400 HRs/300 SB club

I saw him play too and I never felt he was in the league of the automatics like Schmidt, Brett, Jackson, Carew and so many others of his era. Granted he was not as low as say Willie Magee, but I did not put him in the same breath as Henderson or Molitor even. Maybe it was because he was an Expo half his career he did not get the proper recognition, but even Carter felt justified.

Rice had a similar feeling growing up as well. When he got in, though he had a few dominant years, it was as if it just became a different standard that needed to separate within the HOF itself

idrinkpepsi
10-03-2010, 03:43 AM
Can't agree on Helton for reasons given in exhaustive detail in the past.

Vizquel would be a very borderline choice. The rest shouldn't have much trouble unless its juice.

As long as you mention Pedro - no Unit? no Maddux? no Clemens no Glavine - or is that because Pedro may yet pitch again?


I would of put them but they've already come out and retired well except for Clemens but I want to see where Clemens had his steroids taken to give em the vote.

Hero93
10-03-2010, 11:24 AM
the machineee

Jeffy25
10-03-2010, 04:55 PM
I would of put them but they've already come out and retired well except for Clemens but I want to see where Clemens had his steroids taken to give em the vote.

Clemens is arguably the greatest pitcher to ever pitch in the game

bagwell368
10-03-2010, 05:47 PM
Clemens is arguably the greatest pitcher to ever pitch in the game

If you assume as Bill James does that the game gets harder every decade by perhaps 5-10% then his biggest challenge - Walter Johnson gets down rated a good deal. If the numbers are real, he is #1, ahead of Maddux, Grove, Seaver, Koufax, Alexander, Randy, and any other guy you put up against him.

Sadly the problem for Clemens is he was in a decline his last 4 years in Boston. Then he got branded as in the twilight of his career by Duquette, and he showed up in Toronto the next year and had the best year of his career - with at least 12 lbs of new muscle on him. He has a very strong final 40% of his career, soemthing that is pretty rare for power pitchers.

Then he gets involved with Congress....

bagwell368
10-03-2010, 05:54 PM
Andre Dawson's career OBP is depressingly low.

I am not against him being in the hall, but I certainly would not have voted for him.

I'm against him being in. He wasn't even one of the 20 top players of his MVP season. A fine member of the very close to HOF group, but not a HOF. Rice wasn't either as I have written about dozens of times.

Let me clarify on Dawson, through age 28 he was a fine fielding CF, very good base runner, and had a run of 4 seasons in the 130-150 OPS+ range, then he went to RF and his hitting declined, and fielding got meh or worse. In his last 13 years he was very good 4 years, awful for 4 years, and averge or above average 5 years. In these years he had one year over a 2.7 WAR - a 4.2, he also had: -1.1, -0.9, -0.4, -0.2..

Double his career from age 21 thru 28, and he's in easily.

Rice had his last elite year with the bat at age 26, and then 3 more very good years in the next 10. He won nothing. He couldn't run, was a below average fielder and had a short career. He was a glowering, angry, double play machine, and the myth that he was the most feared hitter in the AL is way over the top to the reality. His myth is a lot bigger then the actual player, and I saw him play well over half his games. I thought he would be from '75-'79, but about '81 I was praying he would strike out and not hit into a DP.

tbone2171
10-04-2010, 02:50 PM
Dominant was the word used. Rose had 4 seasons above a 5.8 WAR - those were dominant.

'73 - 8.5
'69 - 6.9
'76 - 6.7
'72 - 6.3

Then six seasons over a 4.0 (very good)

Pujols has 9 seasons at 6.9 or better, his weakest season in 5.8 - that's dominant.

Rose played 24 seasons - 20 as a regular and managed 75.3 WAR (HOF level) in a whopping 15861 PA's

Pujols has played 10 seasons and has a 83.6 WAR in 6702 PA's

So Pujols has 10% more WAR then Rose in 42.2% of the PA's.

That's the difference between longevity (Rose, Yaz, etc. with a brief peak), and sustained dominance year in and year out.

Ok thanks..you made your point..The actual point of my post is that A-rod is nowhere close to a lock to make the Hall. Once a cheater, always a cheater has been the mantra of voters to this point.

Jeffy25
10-04-2010, 04:43 PM
Ok thanks..you made your point..The actual point of my post is that A-rod is nowhere close to a lock to make the Hall. Once a cheater, always a cheater has been the mantra of voters to this point.

I think they will be over it by the time A-Rods name comes up on the ballot, probably the same with Clemens