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canefandynasty
09-14-2010, 03:22 PM
Howard
Dunn
Bautista
Stanton
Pujols

yankeefan54
09-14-2010, 06:52 PM
Howard
Dunn
Bautista
Stanton
Pujols

uhh stanton right now uhh no!!!! mabe in a few years bautista is a one year wonder/hgh. Much better choices u coulda picked. say miggy and hamilton

smm9127
09-14-2010, 08:51 PM
My 5 are not necessarily the 5 best power hitters but instead 5 hitters with a great amount of power.

Adam Dunn - His average HR this year is 408.1 ft

Josh Hamilton - Average homer this year 420.3 ft

Ryan Braun - Average homer this year 413.2 ft though every one has been pulled

Mark Reynolds - 415.6 ft on average, hit them to all fields

Vladimir Guerrero - 408.5 ft on average, but the man has some serious power - especially in the past

These are more or less some of my favorite guys to watch hit monster jacks, so dont jump down my throat for my opinion.

Power Hitters - not just long home runs:

Albert Pujols
A-Rod (Not so much this year, but my homer pick)
Josh Hamilton
Miguel Cabrera
Joey Votto (Love his swing)

OptimisticNot
09-14-2010, 08:57 PM
LOL PEDtista

Driven
09-14-2010, 10:32 PM
Howard
Dunn
Bautista
Stanton
Pujols
So of the top 5 hitters in slugging percentage this year, you include one of them, and that one has never shown this power in the past. Then you include Mike Stanton and his half a season.

What exactly is your criteria?

carson005
09-15-2010, 03:39 AM
Howard - Just a pure power hitter

A-Rod - Effortless power swing, it always looks like he barely swung and he hits long home runs

Pujols - What can you say that hasn't already been said?(aka I couldn't think of anything to say)

Votto - This is kind of biased since I love Votto but he has been abusing the ball the last two years

Dunn - This was the toughest spot for me, Miggy or Hamilton could easily be here, or you could take out A-Rod or Votto probably.

Pinstripe pride
09-15-2010, 08:48 AM
Howard
Dunn
Pujols
Cabrera
Hamilton

footballer2369
09-15-2010, 09:20 AM
Pretty sure he took the top 5 in HR/AB

todu82
09-15-2010, 06:19 PM
Howard
Dunn
Pujols
A-Rod
Hamilton

bringinwood
09-15-2010, 06:38 PM
Pretty sure he took the top 5 in HR/AB

He has struck out like 110 times in 300 atbats or something like that...

Stanton is a fail...


Howard
Dunn
Pujols
Cabrera
Rodriguez


Dunn and Howard are the two biggest sluggers in baseball...

Hamilton really isn't a top 5 slugger in baseball... His all around game is incredible but I would take guys like A-Gonzalez and Matt Holliday over him when it comes to pure power...

yankswin27
09-15-2010, 06:39 PM
1.) Mike Stanton

bringinwood
09-15-2010, 06:40 PM
My 5 are not necessarily the 5 best power hitters but instead 5 hitters with a great amount of power.

Adam Dunn - His average HR this year is 408.1 ft

Josh Hamilton - Average homer this year 420.3 ft

Ryan Braun - Average homer this year 413.2 ft though every one has been pulled

Mark Reynolds - 415.6 ft on average, hit them to all fields

Vladimir Guerrero - 408.5 ft on average, but the man has some serious power - especially in the past

These are more or less some of my favorite guys to watch hit monster jacks, so dont jump down my throat for my opinion.

Power Hitters - not just long home runs:

Albert Pujols
A-Rod (Not so much this year, but my homer pick)
Josh Hamilton
Miguel Cabrera
Joey Votto (Love his swing)

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but you forgot Howard...

Howard has hit more homeruns since 06 than any other person in baseball ...

marlinsfan24
09-15-2010, 06:41 PM
He has struck out like 110 times in 300 atbats or something like that...

Stanton is a fail...

So the first 20 year old since A-Rod to hit 20+ homers in a season is a fail? 20 homers in 299 AB's btw.

bringinwood
09-15-2010, 06:58 PM
So the first 20 year old since A-Rod to hit 20+ homers in a season is a fail? 20 homers in 299 AB's btw.

Rob Deer and Phil Plantier hit tons of homeruns too...

I'm not impressed by a guy that would strikeout 225 times if he had 600 at bats...


The A-Rod comparison, or hint of a comparison, is laughable...

He's a solid hitter, but he goes for the downs on every swing...

I've seen that kid chase more bad changeups than any other player in baseball this season...

marlinsfan24
09-15-2010, 08:08 PM
double post.

marlinsfan24
09-15-2010, 08:09 PM
Rob Deer and Phil Plantier hit tons of homeruns too...

I'm not impressed by a guy that would strikeout 225 times if he had 600 at bats...


The A-Rod comparison, or hint of a comparison, is laughable...

He's a solid hitter, but he goes for the downs on every swing...

I've seen that kid chase more bad changeups than any other player in baseball this season...

I'm not saying he is A-Rod, I was just saying he's got time to work on that. He's only 20. He's far from a fail. He's a much better hitter on the road and makes more contact for some reason.

fishfan79
09-15-2010, 08:45 PM
actually he hit 41 HR's counting AA :)

That said I would say Howard, Dunn, Cabrera, Pujols, Fielder

just my opinion of the 5 I love to watch slug the ball

fishfan79
09-15-2010, 08:49 PM
He has struck out like 110 times in 300 atbats or something like that...

Stanton is a fail...


Howard
Dunn
Pujols
Cabrera
Rodriguez


Dunn and Howard are the two biggest sluggers in baseball...

Hamilton really isn't a top 5 slugger in baseball... His all around game is incredible but I would take guys like A-Gonzalez and Matt Holliday over him when it comes to pure power...

so I guess dunn's 175 K per year average if Fail? But he is one of the biggest sluggers in the game

so biggest slugger in the game = fail in your book? How about Howard and his High K rate?

Kinsm
09-15-2010, 08:53 PM
Pujols
Howard
Dunn
Cabrera
Fielder

ritz
09-19-2010, 11:03 AM
Ike Davis just because I want to make people mad.

BigLee53
09-20-2010, 02:13 AM
Ike Davis just because I want to make people mad.

:mad: CAN YOU BELIEVE THIS GUY!!!






:D

Montana_Rob
09-20-2010, 03:38 AM
Howard
Pujols
Dunn
Cabrera
Hamilton

Don of NY23
09-20-2010, 04:43 AM
:mad::bang::burn::dance::drunk::catfight:
Ike Davis just because I want to make people mad.
We all know its angel pagan!

bringinwood
09-20-2010, 10:24 AM
so I guess dunn's 175 K per year average if Fail? But he is one of the biggest sluggers in the game

so biggest slugger in the game = fail in your book? How about Howard and his High K rate?

Im not saying he doesn't have potential ( fail was in reference to him being a top 5 power hitter in all of baseball )...

He is obviously a gifted ball player that needs to work on pitch selection...

To put him into a class of baseballs power hitting elite after half a season is premature... However, in 3 years, the sky is the limit...

Metsfan98
03-16-2011, 06:21 PM
Howard
Dunn
Pujols
A-Rod
Hamilton
Thats my list.

Jeffy25
03-17-2011, 01:44 AM
longballtracker.com

and then compare and contract with ISO and HR/per AtBat

Celtic AL
03-17-2011, 04:26 PM
(1) Pujols
(2) A-ROD
(3) Howard
(4) cabrera
(5) A-Gon

WolvesJagsOs
03-17-2011, 05:47 PM
Reynolds will be on this list at the end of the year! at least my homer side thinks so....

JaysFanFromIraq
03-18-2011, 10:51 PM
Bautista

JaysFanFromIraq
03-18-2011, 10:53 PM
Bautista
Bautista
Bautista
Bautista
Bautista

he led everyone last yr , so to the end of this yr his the champ

WadeKobe
06-27-2011, 11:49 AM
So many lists without Bautista on it. Huh!?!?

Dunn
Howard
Pujols
Bautista
Fielder

Jeffy25
06-28-2011, 02:23 AM
Jason Kendall, Juan Pierre, Chris Getz, Ryan Theriot,


or


Jose Bautista
Albert Pujols
Prince Fielder
Miggy
Adam Dunn

IMO

CHRISDODGERS
06-28-2011, 02:54 AM
In no order.
Bautista
Pujols
Fielder
Kemp
Hamilton

Celtic AL
06-28-2011, 03:21 AM
heres my updated list

Pujols
Bautista
Gonzalez
Miggy
Fielder

Celtic AL
06-28-2011, 03:25 AM
i agree with you there


In no order.
Bautista
Pujols
Fielder
Kemp
Hamilton


ehh i would of gone with Agon,miggy or Dunns power over Kemp imo

WadeKobe
06-28-2011, 09:35 AM
heres my updated list

Pujols
Bautista
Gonzalez
Miggy
Fielder

16 homers as a lefty in Fenway? Career high of 40? Only hit 40 once?

And you have him over Howard?

... homer much?

OneTuzSea
06-28-2011, 10:09 AM
16 homers as a lefty in Fenway? Career high of 40? Only hit 40 once?

And you have him over Howard?

... homer much?

It's closer than you'd think. They have the exact same career SLG as of right now, and while Howard is steadily decreasing Gonzalez is increasing. Don't forget, power is more than just home runs, and all Howard and can do is hit home runs and strikeout.

WadeKobe
06-28-2011, 12:23 PM
It's closer than you'd think. They have the exact same career SLG as of right now,

Huh!?

Howard - .565
Gonzalez - .517



and while Howard is steadily decreasing Gonzalez is increasing.

Huh!?

2009
.551

2010
.511



Don't forget, power is more than just home runs, and all Howard and can do is hit home runs and strikeout.

162 Game Averages:
(2B-3B-HR-TB)

Howard
30 - 3 - 46- 339

Gonzalez
37 - 2 - 32 - 312

Celtic AL
06-28-2011, 03:43 PM
16 homers as a lefty in Fenway? Career high of 40? Only hit 40 once?

And you have him over Howard?

... homer much?

i soo love being called a "Homer". that word should be banned.

Celtic AL
06-28-2011, 03:48 PM
Huh!?

Howard - .565
Gonzalez - .517



Huh!?

2009
.551

2010
.511



162 Game Averages:
(2B-3B-HR-TB)

Howard
30 - 3 - 46- 339

Gonzalez
37 - 2 - 32 - 312

lets see what Jeffy & Bags says

bagwell368
06-28-2011, 04:57 PM
It's closer than you'd think. They have the exact same career SLG as of right now, and while Howard is steadily decreasing Gonzalez is increasing. Don't forget, power is more than just home runs, and all Howard and can do is hit home runs and strikeout.

As a totaly hitter Howard has been generally sliding since 2006. Gonzalez has been elite and better then Howard since at least 2008.

If HR's is the only measure, have to go with Howard, if it's SLG%, it's Gonzalez.

Gonzalez now has a park that favors him as much as Philly favors Howard. Toss in Gonzalez's superior BA and OBP, the answer is clear overall. Howard is at the back end of the top 10 ML wide, Agon is in the top 3.

Ryan Howard OPS+ since 2006:

167
144
124
141
127
128

Adrian Gonzalez OPS+ since 2006:

127
126
139
162
152
177

Gonzalez is a better fielder too. Oh yeah Gonzalez is 2.5 years younger and gets paid less money per year for being better......

Neutralized SLG%:

AG '09: .579
AG '10: .535
AG '11: .611

RH '09: .586
RH '10: .572
RH '11: .565

Very close last 3 years, AG's solid lead in BA and OBP more then makes up for it. The trends are undeniable, and AG's earlier weaker records and brutally hard SD park have to to accounted for, and when they are ? RH is in the real view mirror and losing ground every day.

WadeKobe
06-28-2011, 05:55 PM
As a totaly hitter Howard has been generally sliding since 2006. Gonzalez has been elite and better then Howard since at least 2008.

If HR's is the only measure, have to go with Howard, if it's SLG%, it's Gonzalez.

Gonzalez now has a park that favors him as much as Philly favors Howard. Toss in Gonzalez's superior BA and OBP, the answer is clear overall. Howard is at the back end of the top 10 ML wide, Agon is in the top 3.

Ryan Howard OPS+ since 2006:

167
144
124
141
127
128

Adrian Gonzalez OPS+ since 2006:

127
126
139
162
152
177

Gonzalez is a better fielder too. Oh yeah Gonzalez is 2.5 years younger and gets paid less money per year for being better......

Neutralized SLG%:

AG '09: .579
AG '10: .535
AG '11: .611

RH '09: .586
RH '10: .572
RH '11: .565

Very close last 3 years, AG's solid lead in BA and OBP more then makes up for it. The trends are undeniable, and AG's earlier weaker records and brutally hard SD park have to to accounted for, and when they are ? RH is in the real view mirror and losing ground every day.

We are not talking about better hitters, or fielders, or players, or who you would rather have on your team... There's obviously no question, there. So a lot of your post was sorta pointless. However, Citizen's Bank does not "favor" Howard. It's a middle-of-the-road park for hitting and pitching.

And just for the record, so that people know, I'm a White Sox fan, Boston Red Sox are my #2, always have been since Roger Clemens played for them. I love the Red Sox and I love Adrian Gonzalez (I live in San Diego).

I'm not trying to be biased or bash AG.

Jeffy25
06-28-2011, 08:30 PM
Gonzalez vs Howard debate, huh?


Who is the better power hitter?


Let's break them down.

Adrian entered the league in 04, but didn't play full time until 06, Howard's mammoth year.

So we'll start from 2006.

OPS+
Adrian
06 - 127
07 - 126
08 - 139
09 - 162
10 - 152
11 - 177

Howard
06 - 167
07 - 144
08 - 124
09 - 141
10 - 127
11 - 128

wOBA
Adrian
06 - .363
07 - .360
08 - .368
09 - .402
10 - .378
11 - .439

Howard
06 - .436
07 - .396
08 - .366
09 - .393
10 - .367
11 - .359

Slugging percentages
Adrian
06 - .500
07 - .502
08 - .510
09 - .551
10 - .511
11 - .611

Howard
06 - .659
07 - .584
08 - .543
09 - .571
10 - .505
11 - .484

ISO
Adrian
06 - .196
07 - .220
08 - .231
09 - .274
10 - .213
11 - .250

Howard
06 - .346
07 - .316
08 - .292
09 - .292
10 - .229
11 - .232


ISO is a more clear representation of raw power that a hitter has, and since that is the nature of our discussion, Howard has shown to be a more proven power hitter since both players started playing regularly in 06.

However, Adrian has been getting better, while Howard has been getting worse. Adrian might have even caught up to Howard finally, and it helps that he is no longer playing in home run purgatory. Adrian was at a massive disadvantage playing in Petco all these years (that is the only reason I posted OPS+, even though that isn't a clear representation of true power, it does show the park adjustment)




Also, for what it is worth, you can be a power hitter without being someone that hits a lot of home runs, there is value for being a doubles hitter that doesn't clear the fence a lot. It depends what sort of question you are asking. Stan Musial was a premiere power hitter, even though he opted for doubles a lot.



In conclusion, I would say that Howard is the better power hitter, however, Adrian is catching up (Adrian is getting better, while Howard is getting worse) as well, Adrian is the better overall hitter.

If you would like to do some more research on the matter, hittrackeronline.com is a pretty neat site

It says that, for the 2011 season alone:

Ryan Howard - 16 home runs on the season
2 home runs - Just Enough/Lucky
6 home runs - Just Enough
5 home runs - Plenty
3 home runs - No Doubters

Adrian Gonzalez - 16 home runs on the season (as well)
1 home run - Just enough/Lucky
2 home runs - Just Enough
1 home run - Plenty/Lucky
8 home runs - Plenty
4 home runs - No Doubters

Looks like Adrian has deserved a few more of his home runs this season over Howard. But that is just a one year sample size, and is completely dependent on ball parks.

Jeffy25
06-28-2011, 08:38 PM
in conclusion, Howard is a better power hitter (which is the debate). But Adrian is easily the better hitter/player.

It's also worth pointing out that Adrian has likely caught Howard in the power hitter discussion, but a few more seasons of sample size would help differentiate that data.

WadeKobe
06-28-2011, 10:50 PM
in conclusion, Howard is a better power hitter (which is the debate). But Adrian is easily the better hitter/player.

It's also worth pointing out that Adrian has likely caught Howard in the power hitter discussion, but a few more seasons of sample size would help differentiate that data.

Exactly what I was trying to say! :)

bagwell368
06-28-2011, 11:02 PM
Citizen's Bank does not "favor" Howard. It's a middle-of-the-road park for hitting and pitching.

The Phillies home park is neutral? It is NOT, in 2008 the multi year park factor was a 103. Easy to see if you notice a players neutralized stats are lower then his raw numbers.

2008 - 214 HR in Philly #1 in the NL; 163 Lg Ave (23.9% higher) -- (SDP 154, 11th)
2009 - 224 HR in Philly #1 in the NL; 155 Lg Ave (30.9% higher) -- (SDP 141, 13th)
2007 - 213 HR in Philly #2 in the NL; 169 Lg Ave (20.7% higher) -- (SDP 171, 9th)

Seems a bit friendly for HR hitters, no? YES. Petco, not so good as we can also see.

bagwell368
06-28-2011, 11:07 PM
in conclusion, Howard is a better power hitter (which is the debate). But Adrian is easily the better hitter/player.

It's also worth pointing out that Adrian has likely caught Howard in the power hitter discussion, but a few more seasons of sample size would help differentiate that data.

The last 3 years are far more valuable in this sort of thing then six years ago, don't you agree?

Without using a park adjust for Petco, what hope is there for any sort of fair SLG%?

xBH%

AG: 79 RH: 73 (+2 -5)
AG: 69 RH: 78 (+4 -3)
AG: 69 RH: 86 (+5 -1)
AG: 64 RH: 59 (+4 +0)
AG: 44 RH: 34 (+0 +0)

So, in 3 of the last 5 seasons counting this one, AG has more xBH then RH...

Now let's adjust for neutral parks/run env, and we get:

AG: 81 RH: 68 (+2 -5)
AG: 73 RH: 75 (+4 -3)
AG: 74 RH: 85 (+5 -1)
AG: 69 RH: 59 (+4 +0)
AG: 44 RH: 34 (+0 +0)

So adjusted, over the past 5 years, AG has 20 more xBH then RH, or 4 more on average per year. Jeez... that's interesting.

Back the adjusted SLG I mentioned earlier 2007-2011):

AG -- RH

.511 .556
.531 .527
.579 .565
.535 .505
.611 .484

So if we count the diff for '11 in half since it's coming up on mid way... we get:

I think there was a mistake made with a precipitious conclusion based on unadjusted data.

Over the past 5 years* AG has averaged a .012 higher adjusted SLG% (4 out of 5 years in fact) to go with his +4 xBH a year. AG has a thin, but detectable lead in "SLG" over RH - clearly.

I also have disagree with the notion that a slugger or power hitter is only judged by xBH and SLG. A fully operational power hitter is also a producer of runs, and since a power hitter doesn't just drive them in, but scores them as well. Therefore BB's, and OBP should also be included as an obvious part of this discussion, and not just isolate the freak show hitters that hit at least 3 440+ or greater HR's per year, or hit 13 HR's in one round of the ASG HR Derby. Interesting, but hardly baseball as its played.

* Anything over a 5 year period to establish a current head to head battle between players is useless, and only useful for career discussions or for HOF voters when the time comes.

Jeffy25
06-28-2011, 11:58 PM
The last 3 years are far more valuable in this sort of thing then six years ago, don't you agree?

Without using a park adjust for Petco, what hope is there for any sort of fair SLG%?

There isn't, but slugging percentage alone is too narrow of a stat and both hitters don't play their entire seasons in the same parks, and don't face the same quality of pitchers all season.

From what we can tell, Adrian is catching up to Howard in terms of a pure power hitter, and might have already surpassed him, playing in Fenway half the time is dramatically more favorable to him.

If we look at the last three seasons alone, cutting out 06-08 (even though those years were better for Howard than they were for Adrian (and Howard had his worst season of his career in 09), note - I believe the last 2.5-3 years always tells more anyway)

Adrian has a .244 ISO (14th)
Howard has a .256 ISO (5th)

But when it comes to overall hitters, Adrian is the clear winner (.400 wOBA to .377 wOBA, and 132-155 in wRC+)

But in terms of overall power, Howard still has Adrian since the beginning of 09.

since the beginning of 10

Howard has a .230
Adrian has a .226
Bautista btw has a .348

Adrian finally moving to Fenway has obviously helped him dramatically (Petco just isn't fair for a power hitter). Adrian is a .250 this year to Howard's .232.

bagwell368
06-29-2011, 12:13 AM
There isn't, but slugging percentage alone is too narrow of a stat and both hitters don't play their entire seasons in the same parks, and don't face the same quality of pitchers all season.

From what we can tell, Adrian is catching up to Howard in terms of a pure power hitter, and might have already surpassed him, playing in Fenway half the time is dramatically more favorable to him.

If we look at the last three seasons alone, cutting out 06-08 (even though those years were better for Howard than they were for Adrian (and Howard had his worst season of his career in 09), note - I believe the last 2.5-3 years always tells more anyway)

Adrian has a .244 ISO (14th)
Howard has a .256 ISO (5th)

But when it comes to overall hitters, Adrian is the clear winner (.400 wOBA to .377 wOBA, and 132-155 in wRC+)

But in terms of overall power, Howard still has Adrian since the beginning of 09.

since the beginning of 10

Howard has a .230
Adrian has a .226
Bautista btw has a .348

Adrian finally moving to Fenway has obviously helped him dramatically (Petco just isn't fair for a power hitter). Adrian is a .250 this year to Howard's .232.

I rewrote that post quite a bit (see xBH and adjustments, etc.), please re-read and respond.

On another point:

If the original poster said 5 most powerful hitters, that would be one thing, but "power hitter" is closely tied with the notion of clean-up hitter, and not only driving in runs but scoring runs, since its a power hitter in connection with a baseball team, not a circus show freak that just hits bombs, but does nothing else - then a fully functioning power hitter complete with BB rates, OBP, should be considered for inclusion.

Jeffy25
06-29-2011, 12:18 AM
I'm fine with adjusted slugging percentage.

I thought you were simply saying slugging percentage by itself as a stat, which isn't enough information (nor is ISO, HR's, or any other singular stat).

Personally, it depends what the question is asking directly. Who is the best home run hitter? Power hitter? Clean-up hitter? etc.

All could derive different answers.

CHRISDODGERS
06-29-2011, 03:39 AM
i agree with you there
ehh i would of gone with Agon,miggy or Dunns power over Kemp imo

22 homers this year so far. Highest SLG% in NL and 2nd in Baseball. Plus I'm a homer!

OneTuzSea
06-29-2011, 07:44 AM
I love when Jeffy/Bagwell argue.

Pinstripe pride
06-29-2011, 09:38 AM
brett gardner

bagwell368
06-29-2011, 11:14 AM
I'm fine with adjusted slugging percentage.

I thought you were simply saying slugging percentage by itself as a stat, which isn't enough information (nor is ISO, HR's, or any other singular stat).

Personally, it depends what the question is asking directly. Who is the best home run hitter? Power hitter? Clean-up hitter? etc.

All could derive different answers.

OK, you seem OK w/ adjusted SLG. That's only part of the adjustment.

#1. If you are not familiar w/ Agon's hitting charts, the average adjustment for a hitter in SDP shows just a fraction of what Agon lost there. I've looked carefully at 2008-2010, and it's clear to me on top of the average adjustment he got, that he was gyped out of 7-14 more xBH per season. Take the low side - say eight, and instead of being 4 per year ahead of RH, he's 14 ahead.

#2. Agon also batted in a very weak line-up when he played for SDP, in 2010 the hitter behind him, the next best hitter was I believe a 117 OPS+. While this increased his BB% a lot, it took away from him perhaps 50 PA's per year with a result other then BB's. That's 15 hits or so, and with his xBH% adjusted for the park, an average line-up, and his particular hitting charts,
I'm calling for 2-3 more xBH, lead over RH now up to 16-17 per season.

It's the issues I've brought up here that I had in mind when I discussed AG going to Boston. I was worried about his operation and the new league/team issue, so I just said that in his 4 best years in Boston he would average 38 HR and get 52 2B's, and a .315 BA - a pace he is very close to right now (well not the BA). In his peak year I figured 45 HR and 60 2B's. Now, when AG is done with his 7 years in Boston, which is 1.4x more 2B then the average park, although it suppresses HR's somewhat, he won't need to be adjust re Howard or anyone else. But that's 6.5 years from now. By that time, I fully expect AG to have left Howard in the dust career wise on almost any measure besides 50+ HR seasons.

yanks19791024
06-29-2011, 11:18 AM
Howard
Dunn
Pujols
Hamilton
Miguel Cabrera

Jeffy25
06-29-2011, 11:28 AM
OK, you seem OK w/ adjusted SLG. That's only part of the adjustment.

#1. If you are not familiar w/ Agon's hitting charts, the average adjustment for a hitter in SDP shows just a fraction of what Agon lost there. I've looked carefully at 2008-2010, and it's clear to me on top of the average adjustment he got, that he was gyped out of 7-14 more xBH per season. Take the low side - say eight, and instead of being 4 per year ahead of RH, he's 14 ahead.

#2. Agon also batted in a very weak line-up when he played for SDP, in 2010 the hitter behind him, the next best hitter was I believe a 117 OPS+. While this increased his BB% a lot, it took away from him perhaps 50 PA's per year with a result other then BB's. That's 15 hits or so, and with his xBH% adjusted for the park, an average line-up, and his particular hitting charts,
I'm calling for 2-3 more xBH, lead over RH now up to 16-17 per season.

It's the issues I've brought up here that I had in mind when I discussed AG going to Boston. I was worried about his operation and the new league/team issue, so I just said that in his 4 best years in Boston he would average 38 HR and get 52 2B's, and a .315 BA - a pace he is very close to right now (well not the BA). In his peak year I figured 45 HR and 60 2B's. Now, when AG is done with his 7 years in Boston, which is 1.4x more 2B then the average park, although it suppresses HR's somewhat, he won't need to be adjust re Howard or anyone else. But that's 6.5 years from now. By that time, I fully expect AG to have left Howard in the dust career wise on almost any measure besides 50+ HR seasons.

And I don't disagree with any of that, although the speculation of the lineup variance is sort of a reach for me.

But that's just picking petty stuff :)

bagwell368
06-29-2011, 09:03 PM
And I don't disagree with any of that, although the speculation of the lineup variance is sort of a reach for me.


Gonzalez:

Year: BB% --- xBH%

2009: 17.5% - 10.1%
2010: 13.4% - 09.3%

2011: 08.0% - 12.5%

So in a weak line-up, AG averages 15.5 BB% (114 BB/yr) his last two years in SD and falls to 8% (56 BB/yr pace) in Boston.

Give AG back those 58 PA's at his .415 adjusted OBP, you get 24 times safely reaching base. figuring his true xBH% would be the mid point between 9.7% and 12.5% - you get 11.1%. So I see 2.67 more xBH minimum (because I didn't account for his BB% - that would give him 11.1% of 15.5%, or another .4 xBH or 3 full - jeez that was simple.

For anyone that just wants the conclusion I just proved in the last 3 posts that for xBH and SLG adjusting for park and somewhat for team, that AG > RH - clearly and with not doubt at all. I'm all for anyone that can argue this to do so. But 3 word posts with "!" included won't be accepted, so sorry.

yaswaggin
08-28-2011, 01:18 PM
how is howard not top 5?

homerism people in here.

vitmazz45
01-17-2012, 02:10 AM
1. Albert Pujols
2. Prince Fielder
3. Jose Baustista
4. Adam Dunn
5. Ryan Howard

LASportsFan1996
03-25-2012, 03:50 AM
Mike Stanton. Guy Is Gonna Hit 500 Home Runs If He Stays Healthy

BradfordIsElite
03-28-2012, 11:07 AM
Jose Bautista
Prince Fielder
Ryan Howard
Albert Pujols
Mark Teixeira

No particular order. Those are my TOP 5

Shamrock
04-12-2012, 02:07 PM
1. Bautista
2. Fielder
3. Pujols
4. Longoria
5. Teixeira