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View Full Version : Are Homeruns an Overrated Stat?



metsfan4ever
09-11-2010, 08:07 AM
Well my boy keeps telling me that homeruns is an very important stat. And I told him homeruns don't value a player at all. Iam I right?

Ian.
09-11-2010, 08:51 AM
No. Why would at least one run from one swing of the bat be overrated? It puts either ahead or one run closer to being ahead.

You're providing no reasoning for your opinion either.

Ron!n
09-11-2010, 08:55 AM
Yeah Home Runs arent overrated. A player can be valuable based on his sole ability to hit home runs. As Ian said, its at least 1 run with a single swing of the bat and you lose no outs, im not sure theres anything more valuable than that.

Unless you mean in comparing players, then I agree Home Runs hit isnt a good comparison stat.

metsfan4ever
09-11-2010, 09:02 AM
Unless you mean in comparing players, then I agree Home Runs hit isnt a good comparison stat.

Yea this what I mean, cause he says he rather have ryan howard than any other 1st basemen(other then pujols of corse) cause he always hits 40 plus homers

North Yorker
09-11-2010, 09:03 AM
Yeah Home Runs arent overrated. A player can be valuable based on his sole ability to hit home runs. As Ian said, its at least 1 run with a single swing of the bat and you lose no outs, im not sure theres anything more valuable than that.

Unless you mean in comparing players, then I agree Home Runs hit isnt a good comparison stat.

This is where you're wrong buddy. Josť Bautista is clearly the best player in baseball:smoking:

VenezuelanMet
09-11-2010, 09:12 AM
No, they aren't. How can't you love dingers?

ThisIsTheYear
09-11-2010, 09:15 AM
Chicks dig the long ball so therefore they are not overrated.

North Yorker
09-11-2010, 09:16 AM
No, they aren't. How can't you love dingers?

Ahh this reminds me of someone's sig in here.

It goes like "chicks dig the long ball, they're not like OMGZ Ichiro's OPS and WAR are so amazing I want to s his d"

misterd
09-11-2010, 09:58 AM
Homeruns are not enough to judge a player, but as a rule, power rules. When even the best players make out 2/3 of the time, and the difference between a journeyman and a star may be just 1 hit every 20 ABs, you want to squeeze every drop of production out of your hits, and no hit is more productive than a homer.

bagwell368
09-11-2010, 11:34 AM
Homeruns are not enough to judge a player, but as a rule, power rules. When even the best players make out 2/3 of the time, and the difference between a journeyman and a star may be just 1 hit every 20 ABs, you want to squeeze every drop of production out of your hits, and no hit is more productive than a homer.

Right. It's not enough to judge.

Let's say in 3 years Dunn is playing for Orioles, and he hits 40 HR's, 20 2B, 0 3B's - and has a slash of .240/.340/.490

Now for player "B", he hits 10 HR's, 44 2B, 6 3B's, and has a slash of .260/.360/.490

in the same PA's. Just off the OBP you know Dunn is making more outs, and that player "B" hits .020 more singles then Dunn in place of those outs. Even though it is a bit out of scope chances are hitter "B" is much faster baserunner then Dunn as well - so more OBP and more speed I'd expect more runs scored. As for RBI? Too dependent on the line up. Although obviously Dunn has an automatic 40 Runs Scored/RBI over "B"s 10.

The other sabr way of looking at this is what correlates to runs created best? wOBA and OPS are higher then BA, and I dare say HR's as well.

DodgerBlue8188
09-11-2010, 12:16 PM
When you got a guy in your lineup like Adam Dunn who can completely change the outcome of a game by one swing of the bat. Things are a lot different.

bagwell368
09-11-2010, 12:30 PM
All I can say is that every year since say 1930, you can line up the 10 best guys in the each league (using a 4 PA per game cut-off) by HR, BA, RBI, - and then - RC, OBA, OPS+ and you'll two things right away.

1. Nobody lines up the same 1 to 10 in all six stats over all 160 seasons.

2. The second 3 stats are much more liable to spit out the correct answers from 1-10 - AND - HR's will not correlate very well with the true top 10 players in the league.

So there you have it. HR's are clearly important, but they are clearly not the only important - or even one of the top few ways of viewing players. Great for ESPN top 10 they may be (along with CF's that play 20 feet in front of the fences they crash into with regularity) but it's like saying the best 3 point shooter in the NBA is the best player. It's simply not enough information.

yankswin27
09-11-2010, 12:34 PM
Jose Bautista, at the time, only got to go to the All-Star game because he lead the league in home runs. He had a .220 AVG, but Girardi took him solely because of the HR power he displayed in the first half of the season.

Obviously, Jose Bautista has tore it up in the second half and has had a phenominal season, but I honestly feel that he only got All-Star consideration at the time because he lead the league in homers. So no, home runs are not overrated stats. In fact, players who hit more home runs are the players who are most coveted.

Jeffy25
09-11-2010, 03:28 PM
I think it can be.

Let me ask you this, you have an offensively average team, on a 81-81 type of team. Do you want a first basemen/left fielder that goes 1-4 every night with three strike outs and a solo home run?

Sadly, the answer is yes, even though the guy isn't that valuable overall, most likely, he produces a run a game all by himself, even though his other three at bats might hurt the team, he is still an offensive plus for an average team.

It is a good question, which no doubt, people will have interesting responses.

Kashmir13579
09-11-2010, 03:39 PM
at yankee stadium

kswissdaf
09-11-2010, 03:46 PM
No homeruns RBI'S hits B.A. steals all should be used to determine how good a player is

kmo429
09-11-2010, 03:53 PM
Homeruns are easily the most valuable hit in baseball, nothing is better than a homerun. "Homeruns" are not overrated.

I see your argument though. Players who hit ONLY for power, are overrated. Someone like Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds, and carlos Pena are some of the best homerun hitters in the game. With that, I'd take a guy who hits 20 home runs, out of the 2 or 3 or 5 hole who can hit .300, and still drive in runs, anyday. While once again, homeruns are the most valuable thing in a baseball game, homeruns for a player may be MISLEADING, not overrating. Looks at Reynolds, see 44 homers last year and 32 so far this eyar and think **** he's awesome. but then you looks at his average, obp, k's, and fielding, and yes, you are mislead by the homeruns.

Main point: Homeruns are not overrated, they are easily the most valuable thing that could happen for your team in baseball, more valuable than a triple play with the bases loaded and no outs (okay, maybe that one is). With that, judging or comparing players on homeruns CAN be misleading, because some of the best power hitters struggle in many other important statistical categories, while some of the other great hitters, who may have less homers than the Dunn's or the Reynold's or the Pena's, are much better players.

TheGiantYankee
09-11-2010, 06:30 PM
Someone batting .210 with 30 HRs at the end of the year makes me feel that HRs are overrated when he is stated as this "Great power hitter"

mavwar53
09-11-2010, 06:39 PM
Hr's lead to so many other stats, teams afraid of HR hitters will pitch around them, HR's therefore increase BB's and OBP in most cases.

skymin5
09-11-2010, 08:30 PM
I think it can be.

Let me ask you this, you have an offensively average team, on a 81-81 type of team. Do you want a first basemen/left fielder that goes 1-4 every night with three strike outs and a solo home run?

Sadly, the answer is yes, even though the guy isn't that valuable overall, most likely, he produces a run a game all by himself, even though his other three at bats might hurt the team, he is still an offensive plus for an average team.

It is a good question, which no doubt, people will have interesting responses.

but more likely he goes 1-4 with a strikeout everyday (on average of course), but only 1 of every four or five games will he hit a homerun. A guy hitting .250 with 162 homeruns is the best player in the league by far.

He does not produce an automatic run per game by himeslf. 1/5 is far different than 1 every game.

jmtapia
09-11-2010, 08:37 PM
there certainly is more to hitting then jus slugging but HR change games and i dont see them as being overrated unless the hitter hits them all when his team is already down big.

jmtapia
09-11-2010, 08:38 PM
double post.

DodgerBulls
09-11-2010, 08:40 PM
Well my boy keeps telling me that homeruns is an very important stat. And I told him homeruns don't value a player at all. Iam I right?

It can go both ways. For example, AL has a DH which means its most like that other players can have more at bats since they are better swingers than pitchers in NL. Also, it depends on the situation because if you're a hr hitter, if first base is open, that player will most likely get a walk rather than getting a chance to hit.

I always enjoyed and envy the big hr hitters prior to the steroid admission and catching a cheater. Today, I don't follow hr hitters anymore because who knows if he is on roids or hgh. I love baseball, but right now.. id rather watch a game where strategy wins the game. Squeze, double steal, hit n run, or simply stealing home for win has always been my favs hrs.

bagwell368
09-11-2010, 08:42 PM
You people can suck the life out of anything. Go ruin someone else's favorite thing.

What a gem of a post.... so "we" are the enemy?

Guess what - some of "us" actually played, coached, raised sons that are really good players, have been going to games 45 years

and also get the SABR "thing"

Imagine the pleasure you could get out of the game if you understood it better? But you'd rather insult people and act out of fear and ignorance - good choice.

bal_ravens
09-11-2010, 09:00 PM
No, I don't believe homeruns are an overrated stat.

I will stick with HRs, BA and RBIs. :)

misterd
09-11-2010, 09:01 PM
Right. It's not enough to judge.

Let's say in 3 years Dunn is playing for Orioles, and he hits 40 HR's, 20 2B, 0 3B's - and has a slash of .240/.340/.490

Now for player "B", he hits 10 HR's, 44 2B, 6 3B's, and has a slash of .260/.360/.490

in the same PA's. Just off the OBP you know Dunn is making more outs, and that player "B" hits .020 more singles then Dunn in place of those outs. Even though it is a bit out of scope chances are hitter "B" is much faster baserunner then Dunn as well - so more OBP and more speed I'd expect more runs scored. As for RBI? Too dependent on the line up. Although obviously Dunn has an automatic 40 Runs Scored/RBI over "B"s 10.

The other sabr way of looking at this is what correlates to runs created best? wOBA and OPS are higher then BA, and I dare say HR's as well.

One thing I don't get - Why is Dunn playing for the Orioles?

As for SABR vs Cavemen, Professor Frink said it best when a child asked for his toy:

"No you can't play with it, you won't enjoy it on as many levels as I do."

BoognishMN
09-11-2010, 09:19 PM
Home Runs are rated. That meaning I think they are neither overrated nor underrated. The “long ball” can be over rated in some circles, yet most knowledgeable baseball fans, even those who are not fluent in Sabermentrics understand there worth.
As for the tired argument between rabid supporters of advanced metrics and those who refuse to understand their relevance, I think the key to understanding the riff is that one of the attractions to baseball is the history of the game and its mythology,61, 714, .406,56, etc all are very meaningful. No matter how prevalent the use of sabermetrics, they will never carry the same “gut” feeling as classic statistical measures. That said, I think any opportunity to enlighten oneself should be taken and a better understanding of the game should be something a baseball fan would want.

arosen36
09-11-2010, 09:20 PM
Well my boy keeps telling me that homeruns is an very important stat. And I told him homeruns don't value a player at all. Iam I right?

youre a mets fan, and the mets dont hit home runs, the mets also suck, do you see a correlation broseph?

bagwell368
09-11-2010, 09:52 PM
One thing I don't get - Why is Dunn playing for the Orioles?


Do you know where he is going to play? Crystal ball working...?

Why not Camden, that would be one of the better parks for him.

fadedmario
09-11-2010, 10:51 PM
simply put....no

Mr Haha
09-12-2010, 12:22 AM
What a gem of a post.... so "we" are the enemy?

Guess what - some of "us" actually played, coached, raised sons that are really good players, have been going to games 45 years

and also get the SABR "thing"

Imagine the pleasure you could get out of the game if you understood it better? But you'd rather insult people and act out of fear and ignorance - good choice.


A little defensive? You know, for someone who you like to completely dismiss, you certainly use a lot of precious energy arguing with me. Sounds like insecurity to me, which also would explain the need for sabrmetrics...

Mr Haha
09-12-2010, 12:24 AM
It's difficult to convey subjectives here, although at times I do. It's also nearly impossible to talk about my work as a pitching coach. That's the strength of sabermetrics, and objective stats. Some people can actually understand them and communicate using them - others who are afraid of change and thinking hide behind the sort of words in your post. Pity.


It's difficult to convey because you lost the imagination to explain yourself while indulging in sabremetrics...

Russollini
09-12-2010, 12:49 AM
See Barfield, Tartabull, Deer, Maas, Howard ( :) ), C. Fielder, Dunn, M. Reynolds, Burrell, G. Jenkins, and the list goes on.

This should help too:

http://baseball.wikia.com/wiki/Top_500_home_run_hitters_of_all_time

HRs are great, but if the only hits you get in a season go over the wall then you have 40-50 hits, about 100 RBI and that is it. You need to look at the full stat line. HR are great, but if you bat 200 and strike out 200 times, you are useless.

misterd
09-12-2010, 01:59 AM
Do you know where he is going to play? Crystal ball working...?

Why not Camden, that would be one of the better parks for him.

Why not Colorado? Texas? New York (AL)? Boston? Cleveland? Lots of hitters parks. Just didn't see a need to put him anywhere, as the stats were enough for the hypothetical situation.

masTOR_shake1
09-12-2010, 02:53 AM
i think you may be on to something. no doubt they are valuable and make the game more exciting but they overshadow rbi and i feel those are a truer indication of a players worth aside from average.

OptimisticNot
09-12-2010, 02:58 AM
Truthfully, I think "runs" are an overrated stat.

Bnice267
09-12-2010, 04:05 AM
everyone looks forward to see homeruns not base hits....homeruns are an amazing stat

northsider
09-12-2010, 09:59 AM
Homeruns rock.

Mr Haha
09-12-2010, 10:40 AM
Truthfully, I think "runs" are an overrated stat.

My head just exploded.

You realize runs win games right? And the point of baseball is to WIN GAMES right?

Antoine Dodson
09-12-2010, 11:15 AM
My head just exploded.

You realize runs win games right? And the point of baseball is to WIN GAMES right?

i think that was sarcasm

misterd
09-12-2010, 12:17 PM
My head just exploded.

You realize runs win games right? And the point of baseball is to WIN GAMES right?

And wins are an overrated stat as well, at least when talking about an individual.

The problem with runs is that most often they are independent of the player who scores them (unless you are talking about a home run). Yes, there are the rare players who can hustle and steal and manufacture a run once they are on base. But most of the time, someone on second will score a run on a hit. It doesn't matter much who is on the bag.

Just as RBI's are largely a measure of the quality of players in front of you, runs are a measure of the quality of the player who hits behind you.

C1Bman88
09-12-2010, 01:00 PM
My head just exploded.

You realize runs win games right? And the point of baseball is to WIN GAMES right?

Either he was being sarcastic and talking about the team level, or he was talking about how runs are overrated on the individual level. Which is certainly true- the amount of runs a player scores isn't entirely dependent on the player's own true baserunning talent/acumen, but is also heavily dependent on the lineup he is in.

MooseWithFleas
09-12-2010, 01:28 PM
The bickering between both sides (SABR vs. Traditional) needs to stop. Feel free to debate a point, but mocking someone's point of view does not count as a debate. Neither does mocking the person himself/herself. There is some good conversation going on in here, but it's being overshadowed by the bickering. Please try to keep it clean :)

pandoro1969
09-12-2010, 02:25 PM
homeruns arent overrated. they are guaranteed runs in one swing of the bat.

Jeffy25
09-12-2010, 07:48 PM
Chicks dig the long ball

OptimisticNot
09-12-2010, 07:50 PM
My head just exploded.

You realize runs win games right? And the point of baseball is to WIN GAMES right?

LOL sarcasm, but in all seriousness the Mets think they are pretty overrated, or else they would score more of them...

Mr Haha
09-12-2010, 08:14 PM
LOL sarcasm, but in all seriousness the Mets think they are pretty overrated, or else they would score more of them...

Thank god... You really never know anymore, though.

stejay
09-13-2010, 08:20 AM
No, you can never overrate Home Runs.

Pinstripe pride
09-13-2010, 09:33 AM
only when using them to compare players

bagwell368
09-13-2010, 01:52 PM
A little defensive? You know, for someone who you like to completely dismiss, you certainly use a lot of precious energy arguing with me. Sounds like insecurity to me, which also would explain the need for sabrmetrics...

I'm retired, I don't need an excuse to spar with the unarmed.

Ask yourself this quiz kid: Sabermetrics didn't exist in 1980, now they all over baseball from GM's, to writers, to people writing on sites like this. If the "old" stats were so perfect, why do we need new ones? Oh yes, because the old ones were shot through with holes.

EDIT:

Also I see in your two quippy responses that you failed to answer my original question. Think how much more you would enjoy the game if you understood it deeply from both sides. I tend to doubt you have as much experience with the nuts and bolts of playing, coaching, and watching as I do (although it's possible), and you've already explained your opinion of the other side. I maintain you have a limited understanding AND enjoyment of the game. Just trying to help you son.

sep11ie
09-13-2010, 02:21 PM
No. Homers can be a huge boost to a team. I know in my games one big shot usually gets everyone hitting.

Double_R
09-13-2010, 02:42 PM
Not in games they aren't... maybe when talking about stats, they can be

samanjerry
09-13-2010, 03:22 PM
Well my boy keeps telling me that homeruns is an very important stat. And I told him homeruns don't value a player at all. Iam I right?

at all? thats just a dumb statement

of course theres value. much more value than a guy who steals bases or singles hitter

rkelly7
09-13-2010, 03:35 PM
Are home runs an overrated stat?
Can you save 15% or more by switching to Geico?
Did the little pig cry weeee weeee weeee all the way home?

Who cares, but HR are important IMO, not the most important, but important nonetheless

WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE, WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE, WEEEEEEEEEEEEE