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nstojic
08-31-2010, 09:45 AM
AA's philosophy? all about progression...


The Jays are costing Morrow five starts. There are those who believe that as a warrior you should return from battle either carrying your shield or on it.

It seems the more conservative Jays learned their lessons from the experience of some of their own pitchers and from others they inherited. Feed the accumulated innings and percentage of increase into a computer, combine that with the powers of observation and voila.

Anthopoulos speaks about a 20 per cent increase in innings each year for young pitchers, but that’s just an outline since pitch count is the more important stat. Here is just a sampling of Jays who had problems and their early progression of innings, part of the study.

75 2/3 innings in 2005

158 2/3 in ’06

187 1/3 in ’07

196 in ’08

Nine innings and Tommy John surgery in ’09, then missed a year. He is out again.

25 innings in 2000

67 in ’01

148 1/3 in ’02

152 1/3 in ’03

31 in ’04 and Tommy John surgery, then missed a year. He now has shoulder woes.

34 innings in 2003

148 1/3 in ’04

167 1/3 in ’05

131 in ’06

159 in ’07

168 in ’08 then Tommy John surgery, missing a full year. He came back strong.

A workhorse for a championship team at LSU, he was drafted and threw 15 innings in 2000.

160 in ’01

168 1/3 in ’02

103 innings followed by Tommy John surgery in August ’03.

The Jays likely will not allow Kyle Drabek any more innings in September and will treat others on a similar burnout path the same way. That trend toward caution leads you to believe the Jays will require one more year before they are ready, willing and able to compete for a crown
http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/mlb/bluejays/article/854602--griffin-playing-it-safe-makes-sense-for-jays

ChongInc.
08-31-2010, 11:26 AM
Arnsberg needs to read this.

Manatoo
08-31-2010, 12:30 PM
Arnsberg needs to read this.

Yes, because the decision on who gets to pitch how many innings is only up to the pitching coach.

wamco
08-31-2010, 12:54 PM
it was common sense to abide by the IP increase rule of thumb. Nothing new here.

mkcavy
08-31-2010, 01:21 PM
Arnsberg needs to read this.

I don't think Arnsberg was the cause of all the arm injuries the Jays suffered through over the past decade. Part was just really bad luck, and I believe part was JP Ricciardi's desire to push young promising pitchers through the system quickly.

I was surprised to hear last night on the pre-game show how little money MLB and teams invest on research for this topic. It still seems a little bit of guess work. Who says innings can only increase by 20% year over year? Who decided pitch count is more important than innings pitched? Why is there no strong evidence to support one method over the other?

You'd think if pitchers are one of the most valuable commodities in baseball the research investments to protect them would represent that....