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View Full Version : Does Deron Williams Choke In The Clutch?



Sox Appeal
08-20-2010, 06:23 PM
Deron Williams is widely regarded as one of the premier point guards in the NBA.

Most would rank Williams as at least one of the top three players at his position.

But does he choke at the end of games? Lets look at the numbers.

Last season, Derron Williams averaged 24.33 points per 48 minutes of game time.

But he only averaged 19.2 points per 48 minutes of "clutch" game time (defined as the last five minutes and overtime when neither team is ahead by more than five points).

Where most great players' scoring average dramatically increases (LeBron from 36.55 to 66.1, Kobe from 33.4 to 51.2, Chris Paul from 23.62 to 39.2, etc), Deron Williams' average actually drops off.

Last season, Williams shot a very respectable 46.9% from the field and 37.1% from three-point range.

However, during clutch time, his percentage drops all the way to 37.5% from the field and 21.4% from three.

The number show that, last season at least, Deron Williams shot the ball quite poorly during crunch time.

So, how about his assist numbers? Maybe he tends to go into point guard mode in crunch time.

Williams averaged a remarkable 13.66 assists per 48 minutes of game time last season.

However, that number dropped to 11.5 assists per 48 minutes of clutch game time.

That doesn't sound like too bad of a drop off until you look at the turnovers.

His turnover average for the season was 4.29 turnovers per 48 minutes of game time.

During clutch time, that number jumps up to 5.8 turnovers per 48 minutes, good for the 2nd highest average in the league (behind only Earl Boykins).

So, not only do his assists decrease, but his turnovers increase. Not a good combination.

And there's more.

His rebounds drop from 5.2 rebounds per 48 minutes to 1.9 rebounds per 48 minutes during clutch time.

His free throw shooting (a very important part of being clutch) also drops from 80.1% to 70%.

I admit, I am not a Jazz fan so I don't see Deron Williams play more than a handful of times a year and in the playoffs.

Numbers don't always tell the real story, so if there is an explanation for these stats, please share.

Because the bottom line is: these stats seem to suggest that Deron Williams chokes in the clutch.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/440245-does-deron-williams-choke-in-the-clutch?utm_medium=twitter

Interesting article I found online. What do you guys think?

nuggetsyankees
08-20-2010, 06:26 PM
that explains why they trusted Sundiata Gaines more than him against the Cavs

SugeKnight
08-20-2010, 06:27 PM
I think it is a combo of being a semi choker, but mostly the slow-it-down system they play in.

Purch
08-20-2010, 06:32 PM
Bleacher report.


/End

Sox Appeal
08-20-2010, 06:34 PM
Bleacher report.


/End

I don't see how that's really relevant?

Purch
08-20-2010, 06:38 PM
Bleacher report bring outs out whole articles based on ******** stats that absolutly make no sense.

In fact they had an article 5 days ago about how Chris Paul and D-Will wont win championships because you can't win a championship when a point guard averges x% of shots per team.

The article was complete ********.

And this one is too they're basing it completly off Clutch stats

And clutch stats are completly ********.

And that's also why I consider clutch stats un reliable. Who says clutchness only starts with 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter with 5 points in between the two teams. Who says clutchness doesn't start when you have a 10 point lead and you're making big shots to preserve the lead. Who says clutchness doesn't start at the begging of the 4th quarter when you're down by 15. Who says clutchness doesn't start if you're making big shots from the 8 minutes mark in a quarter.

Who determines clutch is only 4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points


Clutch to me can be like Paul Pierce leading his team thoughout that third quarter against the Lakers and through most of the 4th quarter before the 5 minute mark.

Clutch isn't something you can just label.

I mean lets go back to the examples of Bleacher's ******** stat based articles

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/438365-why-chris-paul-and-deron-williams-will-never-win-a-championship

Half the crap they write is completely stupid

sargon21
08-20-2010, 06:39 PM
does anyone know where you can find these stats for all players, and if possible link me?

nickdymez
08-20-2010, 06:39 PM
This is ********.. I remember this guy killing denver in denver to advance to the second round..

sargon21
08-20-2010, 06:40 PM
Bleacher report bring outs out whole articles based on ******** stats that absolutly make no sense.

In fact they had an article 5 days ago about how Chris Paul and D-Will wont win championships because you can't win a championship when a point guard averges x% of shots per team.

The article was complete ********.

And this one is too they're basing it completly off Clutch stats

And clutch stats are completly ********.

And that's also why I consider clutch stats un reliable. Who says clutchness only starts with 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter with 5 points in between the two teams. Who says clutchness doesn't start when you have a 10 point lead and you're making big shots to preserve the lead. Who says clutchness doesn't start at the begging of the 4th quarter when you're down by 15. Who says clutchness doesn't start if you're making big shots from the 8 minutes mark in a quarter.

Who determines clutch is only 4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points


Clutch to me can be like Paul Pierce leading his team thoughout that third quarter against the Lakers and through most of the 4th quarter before the 5 minute mark.

Clutch isn't something you can just label.

I mean lets go back to the examples of Bleacher's ******** stat based articles

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/438365-why-chris-paul-and-deron-williams-will-never-win-a-championship

Half the crap they write is completely stupid

there's no problem with the way they define clutch... i think most would agree

Purch
08-20-2010, 06:41 PM
It makes no sense. Are you not clutch if your team is up by 10 with 5 minutes left and you make big shots to preserve the lead?

Clutch stats are ******** beyond belief

Purch
08-20-2010, 06:42 PM
that explains why they trusted Sundiata Gaines more than him against the Cavs

Expect for the fact that Deron left with an injury which is the only reason Gaines saw playing time .:rolleyes:

ChiTownPacerFan
08-20-2010, 06:42 PM
Illinois-Arizona 2005. That is all.

sargon21
08-20-2010, 06:43 PM
It makes no sense. Are you not clutch if your team is up by 10 with 5 minutes left and you make big shots to preserve the lead?

Clutch stats are ******** beyond belief

no, that makes you a good player, but clutch time is clutch time... i don't see how you can argue that

Purch
08-20-2010, 06:45 PM
no, that makes you a good player, but clutch time is clutch time... i don't see how you can argue that


What? Who defines what clutch is?

Was Paul Pierce not clutch when the Lakers had that big lead against the Celtics way before the 5 minute mark and he hit two big threes.

Just because it wasn't in the last 5 minutes does that not count as clutch

Who the **** saids clutch is only the last 5 minutes of a game with 5 points in between

lakers4sho
08-20-2010, 06:45 PM
It makes no sense. Are you not clutch if your team is up by 10 with 5 minutes left and you make big shots to preserve the lead?

Clutch stats are ******** beyond belief


"clutch" game time (defined as the last five minutes and overtime when neither team is ahead by more than five points)

So being ahead by 10 does not qualify it as "clutch"

Purch
08-20-2010, 06:46 PM
Are you not clutch if your team is down by a huge margin in a playoff game at the end of the third quarter and you start hitting big shots the whole rest of the game

Purch
08-20-2010, 06:47 PM
So being ahead by 10 does not qualify it as "clutch"

So if they don't hit those big shots the other team wins is that not clutch?

Thats why I find it so stupid when people try to argue Lebron over Kobe or Melo or any arguments based on clutch stats.

Purch
08-20-2010, 06:53 PM
Like who the hell is gonna tell me a Big shot hit at 4 minutes and 59 seconds is more clutch then a shot hit at 5 minutes and 1 second even if the one hit at 5 minutes and 1 second gives your team a chance to win.

sep11ie
08-20-2010, 06:53 PM
Anybody would choke in the camel clutch

ChiSox219
08-20-2010, 06:54 PM
1. It's Bleacher Report

2. Talk about small sample size, Deron played 100 minutes in "Clutch" time. Imagine taking a random three game sample from a players career and writing an article based solely on that information. Stupid

3. Deron's 08-09 "Clutch" stats:

32.8 points, 12.4 assists, 47.1 FG%, 86 FT% (144 minutes)

ChiSox219
08-20-2010, 06:56 PM
Like who the hell is gonna tell me a Big shot hit at 4 minutes and 59 seconds is more clutch then a shot hit at 5 minutes and 1 second even if the one hit at 5 minutes and 1 second gives your team a chance to win.

Give it a rest, we get it.


You don't have to look at as "this player is more clutch because these numbers say so". Just look at it for what it measures, how a player performs late in close games.

Iodine
08-20-2010, 06:57 PM
1. It's Bleacher Report

2. Talk about small sample size, Deron played 100 minutes in "Clutch" time. Imagine taking a random three game sample from a players career and writing an article based solely on that information. Stupid

3. Deron's 08-09 "Clutch" stats:

32.8 points, 12.4 assists, 47.1 FG%, 86 FT% (144 minutes)

winner

I really cannot explain it any better than this

KickPushCoast
08-20-2010, 07:01 PM
wtf dwill is totally clutch. He always hits big shots especially against my suns. These stats don't mean much at all

jimbobjarree
08-20-2010, 07:11 PM
he has definitely improved alot in that aspect of the game over the last season or so

Chronz
08-20-2010, 07:21 PM
Purch is an example of the kind of analysis a blind ignorance of stats would put forth (Its ********, this is ********, thats ******** and nothing of substance to back it up)

ChiSox is an example of the kind of writing expected from someone who both understands statistics but doesnt bow down to them because he knows how to refute their claims the right way, with evidence.

Purch
08-20-2010, 07:27 PM
Purch is an example of the kind of analysis a blind ignorance of stats would put forth (Its ********, this is ********, thats ******** and nothing of substance to back it up)

ChiSox is an example of the kind of writing expected from someone who both understands statistics but doesnt bow down to them because he knows how to refute their claims the right way, with evidence.

Actually I already explained to you situations that I would classify as clutch that wouldn't come under the circumstances they define as clutch.

I buy into most stats but clutch stats have and will always seem completly ******** to me. How can you give me a time frame and tell me that anything that happends outside of that time frame isn't clutch?

TheTakeOver24
08-20-2010, 07:28 PM
1. It's Bleacher Report

2. Talk about small sample size, Deron played 100 minutes in "Clutch" time. Imagine taking a random three game sample from a players career and writing an article based solely on that information. Stupid

3. Deron's 08-09 "Clutch" stats:

32.8 points, 12.4 assists, 47.1 FG%, 86 FT% (144 minutes)

:clap:
Number One is a good enough reason but 2 and 3 really put the nail in the coffin.

SurGiiCaL
08-20-2010, 07:46 PM
But he only averaged 19.2 points per 48 minutes of clutch

So your telling me there 48 minutes of clutch so basically your saying the whole game is in clutch situation which makes no sense but if your saying last 5 mintues is clutch But he only averaged 19.2 points <--------- neither one makes sense since that would be crazy if he averaged that so this thread.


/fails

Purch
08-20-2010, 07:50 PM
But he only averaged 19.2 points per 48 minutes of clutch

So your telling me there 48 minutes of clutch so basically your saying the whole game is in clutch situation which makes no sense but if your saying last 5 mintues is clutch But he only averaged 19.2 points <--------- neither one makes sense since that would be crazy if he averaged that so this thread.


/fails

No. I'm not saying that at all. I'm saying you can't put a specific time frame on clutch. And give a specific amount of difference in points.

For instance. Think about this scenario. If you're under the five minutes mark. And the other team is up by 12 and you start cutting down the lead in the final 5 minutes. Why should clutch only be considered when the lead reaches down to 5?

avrpatsfan
08-20-2010, 07:55 PM
Bleacher report.


/End

No actually because the stats are real.

DeyAce
08-20-2010, 08:00 PM
He's similar to DRose in the clutch

Chronz
08-20-2010, 08:22 PM
Actually I already explained to you situations that I would classify as clutch that wouldn't come under the circumstances they define as clutch.

I buy into most stats but clutch stats have and will always seem completly ******** to me. How can you give me a time frame and tell me that anything that happends outside of that time frame isn't clutch?
So I should forget about how you perform late in close game situations because it doesnt encompass clutch in its entirety? I know what you tried to explain, Im telling you its a ******** stance. Clutch stats are flawed for a variety of reasons, but if they say your doing bad in those situations then its not a positive sign of clutchness.



But he only averaged 19.2 points per 48 minutes of clutch

So your telling me there 48 minutes of clutch so basically your saying the whole game is in clutch situation which makes no sense but if your saying last 5 mintues is clutch But he only averaged 19.2 points <--------- neither one makes sense since that would be crazy if he averaged that so this thread.


/fails
Hes extrapolating the minutes played into 48 minutes.

justinnum1
08-20-2010, 08:24 PM
He's similar to DRose in the clutch

well said.

Sox Appeal
08-20-2010, 09:01 PM
does anyone know where you can find these stats for all players, and if possible link me?

http://www.82games.com/0910/CSORT11.HTM

arkanian215
08-20-2010, 09:25 PM
In 08-09 he was 2nd in producing FGM's for his teammates.

He was also 47.1% from the field. However, he turned the ball over a ton. His +/- per 48 was 0 so I'd say that's pretty average. This year he was -5. That's still about average.
http://www.82games.com/0809/CSORT14.HTM

This years list
http://www.82games.com/0910/CSORT3.HTM

Bucsfan
08-20-2010, 09:28 PM
that explains why they trusted Sundiata Gaines more than him against the Cavs

deron williams was hurt in that game....but your a smart guy so im sure you already knew that before making a dumb comment like that

sargon21
08-20-2010, 09:37 PM
what's really crazy is how many FTA lebron gets in that time span, and thanks for linkin me Sox_Appeal

ManRam
08-20-2010, 09:43 PM
Bleacher Report is FINE as long as it's not rumors, trade ideas etc.

This is just full of stats. Nothing should be discredited because of the source. I hate BR, but this article is really good. I looked up the stats, and the few I did look up were right. So what's the problem?


Thinking about it, I really do think that Deron doesn't do much late in games. He does get very quiet, very often.

ManRam
08-20-2010, 09:45 PM
what's really crazy is how many FTA lebron gets in that time span, and thanks for linkin me Sox_Appeal

It is crazy, but he becomes insanely aggressive late in games. He attacks the hoop every single play pretty much. He earns most every trip to the line he takes. Superstars get more calls because they earn them, not because they are just superstars. The best players are often the most aggressive players and the players with the ball in their hands the most...ie LeBron.

Bucsfan
08-20-2010, 09:56 PM
dwill becomes more team oriented also...he is improving on his late game shooting...but most of the times he is running plays.. people do also seem to forget all game winning passes and shots though...everybody bashs on him because he plays for the jazz and isnt "gangsta" enough for everybody

LakersA's49ers
08-20-2010, 10:01 PM
does lebron choke in the clutch?

jdub747
08-20-2010, 10:37 PM
that explains why they trusted Sundiata Gaines more than him against the Cavs

He actually got injured and didn't play the in that game.

arkanian215
08-20-2010, 10:38 PM
does lebron choke in the clutch?

depends on how you quantify clutch

Hawkeye15
08-21-2010, 12:09 AM
I can't stand bleacher. But this was a valid argument. Deron simply vanishes most of the time in clutch playoff situations. His damage has been done throughout the game, sure, but in the last few minutes, he is full of turnovers, missed shots, and doesn't rebound anywhere near the clip he normally does.
Purch, you are not going to make a valid point here. We all understand "clutch" doesn't necessarily define the last 5 minutes of a game. But no matter what you do, if the game is close with 5 to go, and you suck, you didn't do enough to create seperation needed to equalize the argument

_KB24_
08-21-2010, 12:12 AM
I don't at stats when determining "clutch" but this was an eyebrow raiser. I've only seen a handful of Jazz games and the only memory of Deron I honestly have is when he hit that game-winner against us in Game 3 two years ago. Just saying.

Kant Stand Kobe
08-21-2010, 12:24 AM
This topic is ridiculous. DWILL is THE best PG in the league. Clutch? If you mean "hit the dagger shot to win the game." Check his highlight reel. Dude FN nailing shots all day long to win games.

Lame thread.

arkanian215
08-21-2010, 12:28 AM
This topic is ridiculous. DWILL is THE best PG in the league. Clutch? If you mean "hit the dagger shot to win the game." Check his highlight reel. Dude FN nailing shots all day long to win games.

Lame thread.

http://www.82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm

I doubt he doubled it in a year and a couple of months.

Iodine
08-21-2010, 12:28 AM
This topic is ridiculous. DWILL is THE best PG in the league. Clutch? If you mean "hit the dagger shot to win the game." Check his highlight reel. Dude FN nailing shots all day long to win games.

Lame thread.

So your main argument is that your from utah I assume

Hawkeye15
08-21-2010, 01:02 AM
This topic is ridiculous. DWILL is THE best PG in the league. Clutch? If you mean "hit the dagger shot to win the game." Check his highlight reel. Dude FN nailing shots all day long to win games.

Lame thread.

hey there, I am Chris Paul. I have been crapping on the league for a number of years. Have we met?

D-Will4Prez
08-21-2010, 01:05 AM
I've been following the Jazz closely for several years now and I actually must agree that Deron is not by definition "clutch". He has had games where he was clutch but generally he is not as clutch as some other players in the league. I don't think that these "clutch" stats are viable or accurate to determine a players ability to save a losing game because Deron has done that many many times but if you are talking about pure scoring in the last few minutes of the game it is true, that is not what Deron is known for. But the Jazz do slow it down just before halftime as well as just before the game ends (that is how our team best performs.), none of their players will show up as better as far as these "clutch" stats go.

Hawkeye15
08-21-2010, 01:07 AM
I've been following the Jazz closely for several years now and I actually must agree that Deron is not by definition "clutch". He has had games where he was clutch but generally he is not as clutch as some other players in the league. I don't think that these "clutch" stats are viable or accurate to determine a players ability to save a losing game because Deron has done that many many times but if you are talking about pure scoring in the last few minutes of the game it is true, that is not what Deron is known for. But the Jazz do slow it down just before halftime as well as just before the game ends (that is how our team best performs.), none of their players will show up as better as far as these "clutch" stats go.

very well put. And this is why obscure stats need to be taken with a grain of salt

sf-fanatic
08-21-2010, 01:24 AM
Lol purch is overcomplicating the stats. There are probably other stats for inside 4 minutes, inside 3 minutes, inside 2 minutes, within a 5 point or so game (close game) if you research and find it. You can defend Williams if you can find those stats and they prove his clutchness. But as for these stats, despite being bleacher report, are true and can't be argued.

nanablvd
08-21-2010, 02:10 AM
correlation doesnt imply causation

tredigs
08-21-2010, 03:39 AM
Bleacher report shouldn't dissuade the argument here. He's using stats, the medium that he's using has nothing to do with that. Bleacher is just like PSD - there are a multitude of idiots along with plenty money writers, just take it as the content dictates - nothing more/nothing less.

As for Deroon's clutchness - I can't really comment. The Jazz are one team that I don't watch enough to see how/who they run through at the end of tight games, but the numbers do seem to speak for themselves.

JordansBulls
08-21-2010, 08:43 AM
Deron was the key in upsetting Denver last year with 2 starters out.

RulerSlick
08-21-2010, 11:18 AM
I've seen plenty of Deron late in games ans he's not all that clutch. CP3 and nash are both better in the clutch

blazerman
08-21-2010, 01:51 PM
DWill is a great PG and performers in the clutch, every player has a bad game at times and you cant expect anybody to be money everytime. I'd take DWill in the clutch anyday (his passing and pentrating ability is deadly and that is a nasty combo to have when you have players around that can finish, it isnt always about scoring in the clutch to be a clutch player).

tr4shb0t
08-21-2010, 02:49 PM
Not all good players are clutch, and not all clutch players are good.

It nice to have both, but every player's gonna have their own unique skill set.

Chronz
08-22-2010, 03:04 PM
Deron was the key in upsetting Denver last year with 2 starters out.

Now you finally listed a TRUE upset and even then its iffy

ChiSox219
08-22-2010, 10:44 PM
hey there, I am Chris Paul. I have been crapping on the league for a number of years. Have we met?

I don't know if Chris Paul will ever be the same again, he wasn't when he came back. Hopefully I am wrong but there's some serious questions as to what level he can get back to.

If I had to pick one today, it's Deron, I know for sure he has his Meniscus in tact in both knees. Can't say the same about CP3.