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View Full Version : Will CC Sabathia Reach 300 Career Wins?



VinceCarter
08-01-2010, 01:20 PM
CC is going for win number 150 today against the Rays and he just turned 30. With CC's workhorse style does he have what it takes to get the ever more elusive 300 wins?

DodgersFanFor23
08-01-2010, 01:33 PM
I think so.
He basically has a chance to win 20 games every year as long as he has a 4.00 ERA or under with the Yankees.

NYY NYJ NYK
08-01-2010, 01:34 PM
He's has a shot, But I don't think he will get it

sleepercell3
08-01-2010, 01:38 PM
He's has a shot, But I don't think he will get it

I disagree, he plays for he best offensive team in baseball and he just needs 15 a year for the next 10 years.

DodgerBlue8188
08-01-2010, 01:41 PM
He's probably got a better shot than anybody but still way to early to make a good guess. Until he reaches 220ish I'd say it's too early.

pandoro1969
08-01-2010, 01:41 PM
nah, his size will hurt him and cause him to break down

beltran15mets
08-01-2010, 01:41 PM
i dont think so i think the guy with the best shot would be king felix with 65 wins at 24 years old

knightsace31
08-01-2010, 01:43 PM
I don't think so. Too many things could happen. He could get hurt, or other unforeseen circumstances. I hope he does, but I don't think anyone in this generation of pitchers will be able to because of blown saves or bullpen issues.

Burkey3472
08-01-2010, 01:52 PM
It depends how quickly he actually breaks down. If he is able to be a average pitcher in his late 30's and he's still with the Yankees he will still be able to pile up the wins (assuming their offense is still productive).

Ty Fast
08-01-2010, 01:55 PM
i think he has the best shot of anybody in the leauge

metsjetsfan
08-01-2010, 01:55 PM
he has a shot, but i think felix hernandez has a great chance. he already has 65 wins n he only 24 years old

Yanks All Day
08-01-2010, 01:56 PM
He has the best shot of anyone currently active right now, but it's way too early to tell. In my opinion, he will reach about 270-280 while he is still effective. At that point, its a matter of whether or not he has enough left in the tank/ wants to go for 300.

bahama0811
08-01-2010, 01:56 PM
Very unlikely.

redsox0717
08-01-2010, 01:57 PM
He has a better shot to reach 300 lbs.

pandoro1969
08-01-2010, 01:58 PM
what about Andy Pettite's chances? he must have a good chance if he hangs around for a couple more years.

VenezuelanMet
08-01-2010, 01:58 PM
He has a shot but you just can't predict what a pitcher will do on his 30's.

Zmaster52
08-01-2010, 02:47 PM
If he goes Jamie Moyer style than yes :cool:

Redbull
08-01-2010, 02:54 PM
It's possible but I don't think he will make it, his size will hurt him later in his career.

cle12152433
08-01-2010, 03:00 PM
He has a better shot to reach 300 lbs.

That right there is a milestone he has probably already reached.

I dont think CC will get there, personally. At his size and weight I think he will start to break down at 34-35, kinda like what happened with Bartolo Colon.

Mc Lovin
08-01-2010, 03:14 PM
We might never see another 300 win picture again. If Strausburg played for a better team he could do it. Lincecum might come close. You have to come into the league young and starting winning right away to have a shot. Sabathia is already 30 and not even halfway there. He'll end up with around 250.

momoneyyyy
08-01-2010, 03:22 PM
yes he will, i have faith in my city hometown kid.

yojoe792
08-01-2010, 03:31 PM
I disagree, he plays for he best offensive team in baseball and he just needs 15 a year for the next 10 years.

Oh, that's it:rolleyes: Soooooo easy

He won't get it

bosox3431
08-01-2010, 03:54 PM
No. I doubt he plays til he's 40. I'm guessing 38. Thats almost 19 a season, which isn't going to happen. Even if he plays til he's 40, I doubt he's on the Yankees at that point either, which will hurt his chances more. Not to mention weight and he already has alot of miles on his arm, he went from having 1 season with 200+ inn, to the last 3 being 230+. I think he'll break down before then.

Public Enemy #1
08-01-2010, 04:33 PM
Doubt it, the guy is too big, eventually he will break down. Even playing for a great team like the Yankees, I don't think he'll reach 300.

celtisox41
08-01-2010, 04:55 PM
He has a better shot to reach 300 lbs.

Already there. They list him at 6'7 280 i think but he's been at 300 before and they probably just don't want to put 300

fishfan79
08-01-2010, 04:58 PM
very very unlikely

1908_Cubs
08-01-2010, 04:58 PM
No. I doubt we ever see another 300 game winner again.

McCovey Cove
08-01-2010, 05:07 PM
What about 149 wins in 10 seasons, at age 30, makes people believe he will win 300 games?

To win 300 games, you have to win a lot of games early in your career, and you have to win a lot of games in single seasons consistently. Tom Glavine won at least 20 games five times, and that's why he got there. Greg Maddux won at least 15 games for 16 consecutive seasons, and that's why he got there. Randy Johnson had to pitch into his mid-40's to get there.

Sabathia has zero chance at 300 wins.

Lincecum4CY
08-01-2010, 05:21 PM
With the offense the yankees provide him he has the luxury of just going 5 innings allowing 4 runs and still qualify for a win.

MelanconMadness
08-01-2010, 05:46 PM
David wells says size doesn't matter, and he was bigger. Its not about weight, its about shape.

And CC has been pitching less than 10 years, and for a much weaker team than the yankees. So why can't he get to 300? He will reach 19-20 this season bringing him to 156 wins before age 31.

hugepatsfan
08-01-2010, 06:24 PM
I don't think he will. But it's not like he has no shot either. We don't know how his body will hold up. He has a realistic chance - definately worth discussing.

nymetsrule
08-01-2010, 06:31 PM
David wells says size doesn't matter, and he was bigger. Its not about weight, its about shape.

And CC has been pitching less than 10 years, and for a much weaker team than the yankees. So why can't he get to 300? He will reach 19-20 this season bringing him to 156 wins before age 31.

If CC had his weight in his legs...maybe that would apply here. But his weight is in his gut. Having extra weight in his gut does nothing to help.

Aussy4GM
08-01-2010, 06:46 PM
He has a better shot to reach 300 lbs.

Hey Thats a select club that only has 2 people in it as of now. Mo Vaughn & David Ortiz....Thats Weird....Its an all Red Sox Club.

Aussy4GM
08-01-2010, 06:48 PM
What about 149 wins in 10 seasons, at age 30, makes people believe he will win 300 games?

To win 300 games, you have to win a lot of games early in your career, and you have to win a lot of games in single seasons consistently. Tom Glavine won at least 20 games five times, and that's why he got there. Greg Maddux won at least 15 games for 16 consecutive seasons, and that's why he got there. Randy Johnson had to pitch into his mid-40's to get there.

Sabathia has zero chance at 300 wins.

but i bet tim lincecum has a better chance doesnt he? :facepalm:

MooseWithFleas
08-01-2010, 06:54 PM
He's on the right team to try. I think he will flirt with it, but he's not the kind of guy I see pitching into his 40's.

Ladies Man16
08-01-2010, 07:08 PM
As long as he's with the Yankees and their offense, he has a nice chance

JDMac80
08-01-2010, 07:44 PM
If Strausburg played for a better team he could do it.

The obligatory Strausburg mention

As for CC, he has shown nothing but reliability and the ability to be a workhorse. Why is everyone seeking out reasons to say he cant. The guys win/age is ahead of the pace of guys like Glavine, Clemens, Maddux, Seaver, Carlton. The last two had more starts per year, but that goes both ways. They had more chances after 30 but also should have had more wins at 30 than CC. BTW, Randy Johnson had 68 wins at 30 years old.

He will need to pitch well into his late 30's, stay healthy, and be willing to pitch into his 40's just to make the benchmark. Its the same formula for all of the 300 winners. He has a shot but you wont really know until he's got about 230 wins

VinceCarter
08-01-2010, 07:46 PM
If CC had his weight in his legs...maybe that would apply here. But his weight is in his gut. Having extra weight in his gut does nothing to help.

I think if David Wells was 6'8" he'd look pretty similar to CC.

CQSox305
08-01-2010, 08:17 PM
If he plays at least 8 more years he has a pretty good shot at it.

PatsSoxKnicks
08-01-2010, 09:20 PM
First, who cares? Wins are such a stupid stat. They should have no meaning whatsoever into whether someone gets in the HOF or not.

But since the question was asked, I'll answer it. No, CC is going to break down earlier than people realize. I understand he's a big guy, but not only does he throw lots of innings, he throws lots of pitches in his innings. It'd be one thing if he was like a guy like Halladay who throws lots of innings but not a lot of pitches in those innings but he isn't. He throws lots and lots of pitches too.

Here are some stats:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sabatc.01-pitch.shtml

Sabathia has thrown 230 innings in the last 3 years and thats not including the postseason- which has been an additional 51 innings over the last 3 years.

Over Sabathia's career, he's averaged 224 IP per season.

Over his career, he's averaged 104 pitchers per start (the league average is 95 per start). However, over the last 3 years, thats jumped up to 106 pitches per start. He's also had 10 starts in the last 3 years throwing over 120 pitches.
And this is all just in the regular season. You would figure the pitches per start go up in the postseason.

For comparison's sake, over Halladay's career he throws 102 pitches per start and he's also never pitched in the postseason.

David Wells is a comparison that has been thrown around too. He threw over 230 innings once in the regular season. His average IP per season was 204 compared to CC's 224. Wells threw 125 total innings in the postseason over a long period of time.

Also, Wells' pitchers per start was 97, a whopping 9 pitches lower than Sabathia's.

So basically, comparing Sabathia to Wells isn't a good idea because Sabathia throws more innings and more pitches per start.

Another comparison- Bartolo Colon. He averaged 216 IP per season and threw over 230 innings twice in his career. And he averaged 102 pitchers per start over his career (Although in his early years it was around 107). And he broke down early.

He may be a big guy but a lot is going to depend on his arm.

You guys wait, in about 2-3 years, Sabathia will be injured all the time or his arm will be dead from throwing so many pitches. If the Yankees were wise, they'd start looking at his pitch totals and IP and start monitoring him a bit better.

Edit: Maddux used to throw a lot of innings but he threw 91 pitches per start- which is really really low. It's probably one of the reasons he lasted so long. He was also managed really well- as he got into his later years, he never threw more than 120 pitches in a start. And he never had the the blazing fastball either that a Sabathia has.

RenegadeRiot36
08-01-2010, 09:26 PM
nah, his size will hurt him and cause him to break down

for pitchers, its actually the opposite. teams would much rather have a guy like cc sabathia rather than a small guy like lincecum. theres more torque on the arm when its lighter so shoulder/elbow problems will stick around for smaller guys much more. i saw it on some documentary, dont remember where

PatsSoxKnicks
08-01-2010, 09:28 PM
for pitchers, its actually the opposite.

Read my post above. It's not so much about the size, it's about the IP and pitches thrown. Sabathia's thrown a lot- even when comparing him to other big guys like Colon and Wells.

Yankees Suck
08-01-2010, 09:30 PM
No he is good but he is not close to 300 win good.

dnl123
08-01-2010, 09:38 PM
not even close, no way he might not even get to 250.