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View Full Version : What is a bigger surprise?



nithanyo
07-26-2010, 10:08 PM
Bengine molina hitting for the cycle

or

5 no hitters in one season(2 of those perfectos)

Wrench
07-26-2010, 10:12 PM
Bengine Molina. He had 5 triples his entire 12 season career before he hit that one, to get his cycle.

I believe we have had seasons before with more then 5 no-nos.

BearBird83
07-26-2010, 10:15 PM
I think it's gotta be the no-no's. Molina is a Molina but I don't think him getting a triple out weighs the fact there have been 5 no hitters! Essentially thats what it came down to. Molina can hit and he ended up with a triple for once in his life and it happened to be during a game where he was seeing the ball well enough to get three other hits.

vladdy#27
07-26-2010, 10:23 PM
Molina definelty

nithanyo
07-26-2010, 10:24 PM
Personally i think hitting for the cycle alone is a tough task. When you get it from arguably the slowest guy in baseball its pretty tough to do

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/touchingbase/2010/07/bengie-molinas-cycle-unlikelie.html

according to the article molinas cycle is the unlikeliest feat in baseball

Strike89
07-26-2010, 10:25 PM
I wasn't expecting 5 no hitters coming into the season.

I know for Molina hitting the cycle seemed impossible, but getting all those no-nos especially in this offensive era is surprising.

Lincecum4CY
07-26-2010, 10:26 PM
5 no-no's for me. Yeah congrats bengie you hit for the cycle but 2 of those balls could have been or at least should have been caught.

5 no hitters with still ball to play in 1 year is pretty cool.

Gigantes4Life
07-26-2010, 10:27 PM
It should also be 6 no-hitters.

Wrench
07-26-2010, 10:29 PM
5 no-no's for me. Yeah congrats bengie you hit for the cycle but 2 of those balls could have been or at least should have been caught.

5 no hitters with still ball to play in 1 year is pretty cool.

Thats what makes it more unlikely. Both where catchable, but they where not.

Also from what I read there where 7 no-nos in 1991.

natepro
07-26-2010, 10:29 PM
Molina hitting for the cycle is actually not nearly as rare as you'd think. Someone like Reggie Willits has FAR less of a chance of hitting for the cycle than Molina does. Or did.

Wrench
07-26-2010, 10:32 PM
Molina hitting for the cycle is actually not nearly as rare as you'd think. Someone like Reggie Willits has FAR less of a chance of hitting for the cycle than Molina does. Or did.

But Willits never has, he never has hit a HR let alone a cycle.

Zmaster52
07-26-2010, 10:34 PM
Molinas cycle!!!

natepro
07-26-2010, 10:35 PM
But Willits never has, he never has hit a HR let alone a cycle.

I'm pretty sure that's the point I was going for. If you're going to hit for the cycle, you have to have some power. As Molina showed, it's much more necessary than having speed. Willits has none, and so is far less likely to hit for the cycle than Molina was.

Gigantes4Life
07-26-2010, 10:37 PM
But Willits never has, he never has hit a HR let alone a cycle.

That's exactly his point. :eyebrow:

Wrench
07-26-2010, 10:38 PM
But your talking about something that hasn't happened. You can't compare two things, one of which hasn't happened.

Also have to remember that his HR was a Grand Slam. He is only the eighth player in MLB history to hit for the cycle while also hitting a grand slam.

natepro
07-26-2010, 10:41 PM
But your talking about something that hasn't happened. You can't compare two things, one of which hasn't happened.

Also have to remember that his HR was a Grand Slam. He is only the eighth player in MLB history to hit for the cycle while also hitting a grand slam.

What the hell are you talking about?

There were actual odds of Molina hitting for the cycle. Obviously they're now 100% since he did it, but BEFORE he did it, they were obviously much LESS than 100%.

There are also actual odds that Willits will hit for the cycle. Because of his complete lack of power, the odds that Willits hits for the cycle is lower than the odds WERE that Molina WOULD hit for the cycle, before he DID.

Are you with me now?

natepro
07-26-2010, 10:45 PM
Here:


Yesterday, Bengie Molina hit for the cycle. Yep, you can pick your jaw up off the ground now.

The very idea of Molina hitting for a cycle is crazy enough, but it goes further. First, his home run was a grand slam. That's only the eighth time in baseball history a player has hit for a cycle including a grand slam. Second, he only got four at-bats—he came out for a pinch-runner after legging out his triple. Third, his three extra-base hits were nearly all of what the Rangers produced; a Nelson Cruz double was the fourth and only other XBH for Texas.

I wrote an article a few weeks back about the odds of a cycle (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-odds-of-a-cycle/). It certainly seems as if the odds of Molina getting a cycle are about as low as it gets. But as it turns out, they aren't quite that bad. (And now, the odds of Molina hitting for the cycle this year are 100%.)

In the most recent public run of CHONE hitter projections (http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/july2010.htm), Sean did just over 1500 players. I used the same process I described in my article to calculate the odds of the cycle for everybody. Ranking all the hitters CHONE projected by "cycle odds," Molina comes out 845th. Nothing to brag about, but not as bad as you'd expect for one of the slowest players in the game. Below him are guys like Ryan Garko, Edwin Encarnacion, Tony Gwynn, and Chipper Jones.

A player's chances of hitting for the cycle depend heavily on his likelihood of hitting a triple, but it isn't just that. Obviously, it helps to be a good hitter (you gotta get four hits!), and you need to have some power. That's why Gwynn ranks so low—he has a relatively good shot at getting the triple in any given game, but for him, the home run is the challenge. Molina isn't a great hitter, nor is he a monster power hitter. But he is reasonably good at everything relevant except for the triple.

Bengie's chances of a cycle in 150 games, given his current skill level, are about 0.42 percent. That's less than one-eighth the chance of Curtis Granderson. But hey, it's better than his brother Jose, who isn't projected to hit any triples. As a result, his chances of hitting for a cycle are a nice, round zero.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/bengie-molina-and-the-cycle/

Pinstripe pride
07-27-2010, 08:35 AM
6 no nos, which could still increase