PDA

View Full Version : Bautista Drawing Interest From Several Teams Including Giants, Tigers, WSox & Braves



YankeeFan28
07-21-2010, 06:00 PM
Major league HR leader Jose Bautista drawing serious trade interest. Teams that have inquired include Giants, Tigers, White Sox, Braves. One reason Blue Jays' demands are high: Jose Bautista's salary next season, after arbitration raise, will be in $5M-$6M range. Cheap power.http://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/19107966754

B2theRY
07-21-2010, 06:37 PM
can we get gordon beckham from the Chi-Sox
and move him to 3B :P

i like him..

hey maybe we can get rios :P (im so kidding)

BlueJayFanDan
07-21-2010, 08:21 PM
I like the Beckham idea. Let's give up Bautista plus prospects for him. It would be a great move.

kingcanadian409
07-21-2010, 09:09 PM
For bautista, the tigers will give up a combination of strieby, sborz, and Casper wells.

PistonsFan14
07-21-2010, 09:34 PM
or Larish Sborz Rayburn Fien and Figaro

Asham
07-21-2010, 09:34 PM
For bautista, the tigers will give up a combination of strieby, sborz, and Casper wells.

Never heard of a single one of those players

Jays Claw
07-21-2010, 09:41 PM
It's highly unlikely that the White Sox give up Gordon Beckham for Jose Bautista.

B2theRY
07-21-2010, 09:48 PM
It's highly unlikely that the White Sox give up Gordon Beckham for Jose Bautista.

package of players of course not one for one.

if they trade bautista i hope they can find a 3B (yes i know beckhams not that)

or a closer in the making.

R. Johnson#3
07-21-2010, 10:12 PM
Alex Gonzalez for Jose Bautista!

D-Train#35
07-22-2010, 03:58 AM
It's highly unlikely that the White Sox give up Gordon Beckham for Jose Bautista.

It'd be the second coming off the Yunel trade. Except Beckham doesn't have these percieved "character concerns".

bartron_44
07-22-2010, 08:02 AM
I wonder if we could package Bautista with Downs for Thornton and Jared Mitchell from the white sox? We would replace the lefty in their bullpen, they would get a draft pick to replace Mitchell in their system for Downs, and they would acquire the major league home run leader for this year and next.

I realize Thornton is a big piece of their bullpen, but Downs is a pretty darn good replacement, so they wouldn't lose much there.... and they are picking up a very versatile, inexpensive power hitter who would fit in great in any clubhouse imo...

What do you guys think, would you do this deal? I realize Mitchell is high on their prospect list, but he is only in A ball right now, so he is really still a huge '?' imo....I think we could improve the farm, AND improve our bullpen in one deal, and it would still be another good baseball move for both teams..I am a huge Bautista fan, but we have snider and Mastroianni waiting to replace him in the OF. We also have EE healthy and hitting well to finish this season at 3rd, along with a pretty good looking Canadian prospect at 3rd in Shawn Bowman in AA who could also be ready pretty soon for a look at the bigs:

This year in AA (New Hampshire):

Games: 74
AVG: .286
OBP: .359
SLG: .538
OPS: .897
2B: 25
HR: 17
RBI: 57

Fld% at 3B: .951 (.975 the 2 seasons prior in AA with the Mets)

This kid has 57 RBI's in 74 games, plays a good 3rd base...and he is 25 years old, 6'3 and 225 lbs :)..an excellent major league frame.

wamco
07-22-2010, 08:07 AM
i thought thornton was a FA after the season

Gibby
07-22-2010, 01:09 PM
Thornton has a $3M club option ($0.25M buyout) for 2011. Thornton has top closer stuff and would be thrilled if jays can get him. If they get him they need to sign him to an exstension or there is no point. anyways i doubt jays can get him. should focus on getting specs or buy low on beckham.

2009mvp
07-22-2010, 02:29 PM
Shouldn't the White Sox be looking for LH pop? I doubt they're gonna give up too much for another RH power bat.

nithanyo
07-22-2010, 03:14 PM
If we dont get a sure-fire top prospect(im talking, Drabek, Wallace level) we keep him.

wamco
07-22-2010, 07:44 PM
Thornton could displace Jenks for next season if not before

RR Cool Jay
07-23-2010, 12:36 PM
If we dont get a sure-fire top prospect(im talking, Drabek, Wallace level) we keep him.
I agree with this. Jays should be looking at young, controllable, and high-ceiling players.

bomber0104
07-24-2010, 12:06 PM
with Dejesus out for the year and Hart hurting himself last night, Bautista's value is only going up

B2theRY
07-24-2010, 12:38 PM
I think the jays are scared to Trade Baustista just because I believe they view him as the starting 3B next season..

unless their are some FA 3B.

I want him off the jays im not a big bautista fan.. same with Vernon i want him gone already.. maybe we can place him on waivers with the season he is having and have someone bite just like rios.

clear his damn contract.

mkcavy
07-24-2010, 12:56 PM
If we dont get a sure-fire top prospect(im talking, Drabek, Wallace level) we keep him.

If that's the case, a trade for Bautista will never happen. A GM would have to be an idiot to send a top-level prospect to Toronto for a career utility player who is having an above average season.

The_905
07-24-2010, 01:53 PM
^ Precisely why your not a GM..

A career utility player at 28? Sure he's a late bloomer but he has led the majors in home runs since September of last season and plays 3 positions well above average (3rd in outfield assists).

I really hope AA can lock him up for the next 4-5 for the rebuild. A player with his versatility and pop is invaluable.

B2theRY
07-24-2010, 04:00 PM
no thank you i will pass..


late bloomer or career season?

marcre
07-24-2010, 04:38 PM
no thank you i will pass..


late bloomer or career season?

Late bloomer. Who do you want to play 3B next year?

ChongInc.
07-24-2010, 07:28 PM
Career year. He's a two trick pony. He has a strong arm and he hits for power. He WILL not keep up this production durring the second half of the year... Never mind next year.
Quote it. Sig it.

bomber0104
07-24-2010, 07:45 PM
Career year. He's a two trick pony. He has a strong arm and he hits for power. He WILL not keep up this production durring the second half of the year... Never mind next year.
Quote it. Sig it.

i will actually sig it .. i dont have much of an opinion but i just think it ridiculous for people to make such definite statements

BlueJayCarter
07-24-2010, 07:56 PM
Career year. He's a two trick pony. He has a strong arm and he hits for power. He WILL not keep up this production durring the second half of the year... Never mind next year.
Quote it. Sig it.

Well I am assuming you are not a Blue Jay fan? We are not selling cheap on Bautista or anybody else unlike other teams are thinking as Toronto is not doing a 5-10 year rebuild, we are trying to contend in 2-3 years and if no good offers come in, then we will keep Bautista and if he can similar production then we are golden when the Blue Jays do contend.

The_Jet11
07-24-2010, 08:53 PM
Bautista's value may be rising by the inning! The Tigers are getting crippled more and more as this series goes on.

Inge last week.
Ordonez out for 6 weeks now with a fractured ankle.

AAAAAND

to top it all off, Guillen has just left the ball game. (not sure what's going on there).

So officially the Tigers have lost their best option for 3B (Inge) and RF (Ordonez) for the foreseeable future.

I wonder who we could get from them?

Perhaps a super-package of Bautista, Buck and Downs could net us a beauty!

idrinkpepsi
07-24-2010, 09:24 PM
With Mags getting injured I gotta think that Bautista is going to the Tigers, maybe with Buck since Laird is weak at catcher for the Tigers. Bautista value is going up, I mean sure players needed to be injured which is bad but this is perfect for AA if we want to move Jose at the deadline.

Rochesta
07-24-2010, 09:54 PM
With all the recent developments I think we should seriously consider trading him. I like the guy but his value could be very high on the trade market. He still needs an extension, remember. He ain't going to be a cheap player moving forward.

wamco
07-24-2010, 10:48 PM
^ Precisely why your not a GM..

A career utility player at 28? Sure he's a late bloomer but he has led the majors in home runs since September of last season and plays 3 positions well above average (3rd in outfield assists).

I really hope AA can lock him up for the next 4-5 for the rebuild. A player with his versatility and pop is invaluable.


-wow

robdizzle3
07-25-2010, 02:50 AM
JB's stock is rising a bit, but teams aren't about to overpay for him, because like us fans, they really dont know what to expect from him. They'll probably get a mid-level prsopect for him, with some fillers, but nothing out of the ordinary.

statquo
07-25-2010, 05:50 AM
^ Precisely why your not a GM..

A career utility player at 28? Sure he's a late bloomer but he has led the majors in home runs since September of last season and plays 3 positions well above average (3rd in outfield assists).

I really hope AA can lock him up for the next 4-5 for the rebuild. A player with his versatility and pop is invaluable.

:speechless:

nithanyo
07-25-2010, 07:27 AM
If that's the case, a trade for Bautista will never happen. A GM would have to be an idiot to send a top-level prospect to Toronto for a career utility player who is having an above average season.

Than bautista stays i guess which im perfectly fine with

BlueJayCarter
07-25-2010, 07:39 AM
JB's stock is rising a bit, but teams aren't about to overpay for him, because like us fans, they really dont know what to expect from him. They'll probably get a mid-level prsopect for him, with some fillers, but nothing out of the ordinary.

To all the other posters that support other teams coming on this thread saying that Toronto is over-valuing Bautista and that we should get crappy prospects for him.

We do not need to trade him for crap. A.A and the Blue Jays are only trading so they have the pieces to contend in a couple of years, just like Yunel Escobar. If the deal isn't there we do not need to trade Bautista and can keep him preferably, my thought three years, and see if he can put up the same kind of numbers.

Same goes for our pitchers. If other teams try to under-value we can let them go in free agency and pick up picks in the early rounds in what others are calling a much deeper draft than this year's. It will take a little longer to rebuild but it sure beats being undervalued.

nithanyo
07-25-2010, 07:54 AM
To all the other posters that support other teams coming on this thread saying that Toronto is over-valuing Bautista and that we should get crappy prospects for him.

We do not need to trade him for crap. A.A and the Blue Jays are only trading so they have the pieces to contend in a couple of years, just like Yunel Escobar. If the deal isn't there we do not need to trade Bautista and can keep him preferably, my thought three years, and see if he can put up the same kind of numbers.

Same goes for our pitchers. If other teams try to under-value we can let them go in free agency and pick up picks in the early rounds in what others are calling a much deeper draft than this year's. It will take a little longer to rebuild but it sure beats being undervalued.

Exactly this is not a halladay situation. Bautista and most of the other trading chips want to stay here. We are a few years away from competiton so we dont have the urgency to trade away our players for crap

BlueJayCarter
07-25-2010, 08:09 AM
Just to emphasize that Toronto is not selling cheap on any of its veteran talent as the other teams need Toronto more than Toronto needs them, in the 2010 Toronto Blue Jays trade deadline it says (see other thread):


The New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Colorado Rockies are all contending teams in need of bullpen relief and all three have shown strong interest in acquiring Downs. The Jays would certainly expect at least two high end prospects in return for the reliever, who is eligible to become a Type A free agent at the end of the season.

The Red Sox are also interested in catching help and had scouts in attendance along with representatives from the Yankees, Detroit Tigers, Minnesota Twins and Philadelphia Phillies to watch John Buck on July 19th in Kansas City. The Jays would need to receive at least one high level prospect for Buck, although they will surely ask for more as catching is currently scarce in the Majors, as Buck is projecting to be a Type B free agent at the end of the season.

Bautista is on the radar of the Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants and others, but the Jays would need to have a ton come their way in return for the power hitting player as they do see him in their future plans.

If the Jays were to trade Downs, Frasor, Gregg, Buck & Bautista the crop of talent that could come their way would be huge adding even more talent to their rebuilding process, which Anthopoulos has done a magnificent job of directing thus far. Anthopoulos acquired a ton of high end talent in this seasonís entry draft.

So pony up talented prospects or do not bother.

HowFit
07-25-2010, 10:28 AM
there's a lot of risk in this...yes, he's having a great year but will he continue? Look at his overall stats. Not uncommon to see players have a terrific year or two then sucks all the others. It's all depend how bad a team needing him. If they want him bad enough they will give up top talented prospect(s)...if not, 2-3 mid level prospects would be plenty to ask for..me personally not sold on this guy. Someone like Willingham you know what you're getting because of his consistent numbers...

ah nuts
07-25-2010, 10:57 AM
there's a lot of risk in this...yes, he's having a great year but will he continue? Look at his overall stats. Not uncommon to see players have a terrific year or two then sucks all the others. It's all depend how bad a team needing him. If they want him bad enough they will give up top talented prospect(s)...if not, 2-3 mid level prospects would be plenty to ask for..me personally not sold on this guy. Someone like Willingham you know what you're getting because of his consistent numbers...

in the past, how many of these career years (from no where) were from substances intake vs a change in batting style??

And is this (more or less) one year wonders vs longevity??

robdizzle3
07-25-2010, 10:15 PM
To all the other posters that support other teams coming on this thread saying that Toronto is over-valuing Bautista and that we should get crappy prospects for him.

We do not need to trade him for crap. A.A and the Blue Jays are only trading so they have the pieces to contend in a couple of years, just like Yunel Escobar. If the deal isn't there we do not need to trade Bautista and can keep him preferably, my thought three years, and see if he can put up the same kind of numbers.

Same goes for our pitchers. If other teams try to under-value we can let them go in free agency and pick up picks in the early rounds in what others are calling a much deeper draft than this year's. It will take a little longer to rebuild but it sure beats being undervalued.

That's just the thing, im not saying anybody is overvaluing him, but there's a risk involved, because GM's and scouts dont know if he will continue. So teams wont be giving up their top prospects to grab him. Noty saying he cant get back a nice return, but it wont be anything head turning. If people knew he was gonna continue this, he would be picked up in a minute, but they dont know.

Asham
07-25-2010, 10:36 PM
Lets trade Jose Bautista for Buster Posey

idrinkpepsi
07-25-2010, 10:56 PM
Lets trade Jose Bautista for Buster Posey

Oh god if that was even in talks I would.................. :cry: with joy.

B2theRY
07-26-2010, 12:51 PM
i said in another forum...

give up buck, bautista for Posey :P

SF wants offense... youre getting that.

heck ill even throw back Downs :P

JaysFan87
07-26-2010, 01:05 PM
^ Precisely why your not a GM..

A career utility player at 28? Sure he's a late bloomer but he has led the majors in home runs since September of last season and plays 3 positions well above average (3rd in outfield assists).

I really hope AA can lock him up for the next 4-5 for the rebuild. A player with his versatility and pop is invaluable.

for the record he plays only two positions (3B and RF) and plays only one position average (exactly average) and that is RF. And the only reason he is average there is because of his canon for an arm. His range runs above avg over the last three years at RF 1.2, 1.3, -5.1
and at
3B -5.4, 2.2, -5.8.

SO the ONLY reason why defense is above avg is because of his arm. Last three years his ARM (outfield runs above average) has been 1.4, 2.5, 4.3.

While playing two positions is great he is only an average defender at best at those position.

The_905
07-26-2010, 01:12 PM
I stand corrected.

Jays Claw
07-26-2010, 02:20 PM
Giants: They've looked at the Blue Jays' Jose Bautista. The Blue Jays could see Ehire Adrianza (SS) or Emmanuel Burriss (2B) in such a deal.


Red Sox: They're looking at the Blue Jays' Scott Downs, Jason Frasor and Kevin Gregg. However, they're likely to take a "wait and see" approach. They aren't likely to trade a big time prospect.


Rockies: They're looking around for a reliever, but find the price for Kevin Gregg high so far. With 22 saves, Kevin Gregg has had a decent year as the closer in Toronto. Also, his team option for 2011 is fairly reasonable, causing Toronto to ask for a lot.

Link: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/jon_heyman/07/25/d.scoop.sun/index.html#ixzz0ukr2o4or

miller74
07-26-2010, 02:41 PM
Late bloomer. Who do you want to play 3B next year?

Someone who is not going to get close to 10mil in arbritration this offseason

miller74
07-26-2010, 02:43 PM
i said in another forum...

give up buck, bautista for Posey :P

SF wants offense... youre getting that.

heck ill even throw back Downs :P

This is a joke right? and dont let the avatar throw you im a blue jay fan not a giant fan

2009mvp
07-26-2010, 02:47 PM
Late bloomer. Who do you want to play 3B next year?

Someone who is not going to get close to 10mil in arbritration this offseason

Think closer to 6M, tops.

nithanyo
07-26-2010, 05:52 PM
Late bloomer. Who do you want to play 3B next year?

Someone who is not going to get close to 10mil in arbritration this offseason

Bautista is not gonna make 10 mill through Arbitration. 5 million a year with a multi-year contract is what he would most likely recieve

donatolla
07-28-2010, 12:03 AM
I've posted words on why AA really *must* sell high on Bautista this year in another thread - summary: He's not playing that much differently, just more balls are going over the fence.

Another reason?

Bautista is right up there in number of "just enough" home runs (he's second to Alex Gonzalez). Generally, if a player hits a lot of home runs that just barely made it over the fence, he is very likely to regress at any time - just a slight change in swing will result in caught fly balls instead. Complicating things further, the Dome has proven to favour hitters a bit more this year, so Bautista has that favouring him as well.

Everything about Bautista's 2010 is screaming fluke. IF someone wants him, let them have him. Unfortunately, (as in the other thread) any GM worth their salary will also know this, and won't be looking to trade for Bautista.

Rochesta
07-28-2010, 12:35 AM
Bautista is a monster; its easier to lie with statistics than lie without them, bottom line. When people run out of normal stats to criticize him, they start measuring his homers and telling you that they didn't go far enough. Y'all hatin tryin to catch him ridin dirty, is it because he's Latino? Takes a pretty talented guy to even hit 30 HR, unless he uses the Canseco training program.

StealingSigns
07-28-2010, 12:59 AM
Bautista is a monster; its easier to lie with statistics than lie without them, bottom line. When people run out of normal stats to criticize him, they start measuring his homers and telling you that they didn't go far enough. Y'all hatin tryin to catch him ridin dirty, is it because he's Latino? Takes a pretty talented guy to even hit 30 HR, unless he uses the Canseco training program.

Whoa! Where did you get that idea from?

Pretty sure we had a similar discussion in here re. Aaron Hill last year. Last time I looked, he isn't Latino.

Pride
07-28-2010, 01:48 AM
Its probably in everyone's best interest if Bautista isn't traded. I doubt any GM will offer any blue chip prospects in a deal for Bautista. And us people from Toronto want top notch prospects for him. Bautista simply will not get good value from any trading partners. There's really no point in trading him if we don't perceive to be getting fair value. The whole thing where we get blown away with some ridiculous prospects just isn't happening.

wamco
07-28-2010, 07:40 AM
The way he is still playing, I think his value remains high for a team trying to win the world series this year that could also use him next year at a very reasonable cost.

boilerguy2412
07-28-2010, 09:20 AM
I still say we should trade him. I love his production and what he's doing but i just don't think he's going to be able to put up a season like this again. His career #'s show that. I would be willing to hold off on trading him and giving him a 1 year deal next season if he can do what he is doing this year again next year maybe i would lock him up for 2 or 3 more years. I know some of you guys love what's he's doing and want to keep him but you got to remember he's going on the wrong side of 30 and has never had production like this before. That's a bad combination for a long term deal in any Gm's book.

B2theRY
07-28-2010, 12:06 PM
This is a joke right? and dont let the avatar throw you im a blue jay fan not a giant fan

whaaaaaaaaa i'd take posey ;)

North Yorker
07-28-2010, 01:13 PM
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=10050551&topic_id=7417714

Near the end (around 5:20ish) they talk about Bautista possibly to the Giants. They say we might be interested in Emmanuel Burris or Ehire Adrianza.

bomber0104
07-28-2010, 01:22 PM
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=10050551&topic_id=7417714

Near the end (around 5:20ish) they talk about Bautista possibly to the Giants. They say we might be interested in Emmanuel Burris or Ehire Adrianza.

yeah thats from a week ago and its a joke of an offer

the_jon
07-28-2010, 02:41 PM
Batista to the Braves for Jason Heyward.

Asif Gonzalez for Escobar makes much more sense for them lol.

wolverine
07-28-2010, 04:17 PM
I've posted words on why AA really *must* sell high on Bautista this year in another thread - summary: He's not playing that much differently, just more balls are going over the fence.

Another reason?

Bautista is right up there in number of "just enough" home runs (he's second to Alex Gonzalez). Generally, if a player hits a lot of home runs that just barely made it over the fence, he is very likely to regress at any time - just a slight change in swing will result in caught fly balls instead. Complicating things further, the Dome has proven to favour hitters a bit more this year, so Bautista has that favouring him as well.

Everything about Bautista's 2010 is screaming fluke. IF someone wants him, let them have him. Unfortunately, (as in the other thread) any GM worth their salary will also know this, and won't be looking to trade for Bautista.


Are you serious??? have you been watching some of the bombs Baustista has been hitting, second deck shots on the reg
do your homework kid

wamco
07-28-2010, 07:55 PM
In the old days a ground rule double was a HR

Abdul Mutalib
07-29-2010, 09:12 PM
"The wind whispered "Bautista" in Washington last night and Strasburgs shoulder tightened up and he went on the DL."
"Tornadoes are not mother nature, they are the wind gust from Jose Bautista swinging his bat! "
"Jose Bautista is so awesome that Justin Bieber mentions him in a Tweet just to gain followers."
"Sportsnet had to create a new channel because the previous 4 couldn't all contain the power of Jose Bautista."
"Jose Bautista's paperboy in the off-season is Nick Swisher...and Bautista doesn't even tip him. "
"Jose Bautista once struck a pitcher out while at bat and then offered him 72 virgins as condolence."
" Strasburg missed his start on Monday cuz even he wanted to pitch around Bautista. "
"Theres no more 1st,2nd or 3rd base in Relationships anymore its now called Going Bautista!

"A single hair from Jose Bautista's beard could cure male pattern baldness forever. "
"Jose Bautista is so strong when he tried to inject steroids the needle went "**** THAT!""
"Usher wrote the song "OMG" in inspiration of Jose Bautista."
"The MLB is now called Major League Bautista because no one is in Jose Bautistas League."
"Scientists prove there is no global warming, it was just Jose Bautista warming up his arm."

donatolla
07-29-2010, 09:37 PM
Are you serious??? have you been watching some of the bombs Baustista has been hitting, second deck shots on the reg
do your homework kid

Yes I am.

Bautista has 10 "just enough" home runs, and 11 "no doubters."

Currently, 30% of his home runs barely made it over the fence. When that number is that high, the player is a high risk to regress at some point in the near future. Given his past history, the evidence of his regression is mounting.

Do *your* homework "kid."

wamco
07-29-2010, 09:55 PM
and joe carter's hr in 93 barely cleared the fence as well, but it was the greatest moment in jays history. Well, before this awesome trade.

DiPasquale7
07-30-2010, 10:51 AM
Yes I am.

Bautista has 10 "just enough" home runs, and 11 "no doubters."

Currently, 30% of his home runs barely made it over the fence. When that number is that high, the player is a high risk to regress at some point in the near future.


I'd imagine if you looked into the stats of most "just enough" homers you'd see all of the leaders in HRs. I'd imagine the same goes for "no doubters". He's probably also up there in most "fly outs to the warning track" or whatever other stats you want to throw out there.. It's all relative.



Given his past history, the evidence of his regression is mounting.
Do *your* homework "kid."

What evidence of regression? Is he dropping off? Because I think he hit 4 homers last series.. In July he's brought his BA up from .229 to .256. It looks like he's actually improving (significantly) as the season continues.

People want to assume he will regress.. I don't know why. I just know that the same fans from other teams that think he's worthless will be the same people who make fun of any trade 5 years from now if the Jays got some mid-level spec who doesn't pan out and Bautista continues to improve. I say unless a blue chip guy is available, don't move him

dtmagnet
07-30-2010, 05:47 PM
Since when did "just enough homers" become a real statistic? Either it goes over the fence or it doesn't.

DiPasquale7
07-30-2010, 05:53 PM
Since when did "just enough homers" become a real statistic? Either it goes over the fence or it doesn't.

:clap: Thank you!

BigEasy1323
07-30-2010, 06:07 PM
Of course he will have a high number of that foolish stat "just enough" homeruns. When you lead the league in homers you are going to have a higher number of "no doubters" or "just enoughs" then say someone with 10 to 15 homers. It is a larger sample size. What a ridiculous argument

2009mvp
07-30-2010, 06:11 PM
^^It's not a ridiculous argument, it's that people clearly aren't understanding the argument. No one's trying to discredit Bautista's 2010 season, no one's trying to say he sucks, what they're trying to do is use all the data available to predict what he's gonna do in the next few years of his career.

I'm sure JE home runs were a "foolish stat" last year when they (in addition to a host of other things) showed Aaron Hill as a 20-25 HR guy going forward instead of the 35+ he had in '09.

nithanyo
07-30-2010, 06:15 PM
^^It's not a ridiculous argument, it's that people clearly aren't understanding the argument. No one's trying to discredit Bautista's 2010 season, no one's trying to say he sucks, what they're trying to do is use all the data available to predict what he's gonna do in the next few years of his career.

I'm sure JE home runs were a "foolish stat" last year when they (in addition to a host of other things) showed Aaron Hill as a 20-25 HR guy going forward instead of the 35+ he had in '09.

If you look at HR leaders of past im sure they had 10-15 just enough homeruns. So are they just flukes?

2009mvp
07-30-2010, 06:20 PM
^^

what they're trying to do is use all the data available to predict what he's gonna do in the next few years of his career.

Hooray for reading comprehension...

BigEasy1323
07-30-2010, 06:23 PM
I understand the argument and Hill is a great example. My point is that in most cases in the history of the MLB the homerun leader is going to have a ton of "just enough" homeruns too. I am pleased with Bautista's production and will not for a second count on him to hit this many for years to come, but I also do not think it is a fluke. He is a player with a good bat and some pop in it having a great year

wamco
07-30-2010, 06:30 PM
People want to assume he will regress.. I don't know why.

Then you must not have read the 1000 posts on it. Or seen his career numbers.

2009mvp
07-30-2010, 06:33 PM
I understand the argument and Hill is a great example. My point is that in most cases in the history of the MLB the homerun leader is going to have a ton of "just enough" homeruns too. I am pleased with Bautista's production and will not for a second count on him to hit this many for years to come, but I also do not think it is a fluke. He is a player with a good bat and some pop in it having a great year

Then a lot of people have differing opinions of the meaning of "fluke." 40+ homeruns is a "fluke" in the sense that he's never gonna do it again. I think we agree there, and considering the loft he puts in his swing and how that will affect his BA his upside is limited. We've got a 29 year old with great discipline, above average but not elite power, and an average glove in right. That's a nice player, a guy who's got a role on a contending team, but a guy who's really of no use to helping the Jays become serious contenders now or in the future. In other words, he's got "Sell Now" written across his forehead.

StayOnBoard
07-30-2010, 07:03 PM
Then a lot of people have differing opinions of the meaning of "fluke." 40+ homeruns is a "fluke" in the sense that he's never gonna do it again. I think we agree there, and considering the loft he puts in his swing and how that will affect his BA his upside is limited. We've got a 29 year old with great discipline, above average but not elite power, and an average glove in right. That's a nice player, a guy who's got a role on a contending team, but a guy who's really of no use to helping the Jays become serious contenders now or in the future. In other words, he's got "Sell Now" written across his forehead.

And what if he does?

What if next year he hits another 40? Then you sold "low" on a player who goes out and hits another ton of homers for a few prospects that may or may not have any impact. You can use any data you want - you have absolutely no clue how Bautista will perform going forward.... no one does.

And don't say "sell high" as if it really means something. You need to have a trade partner for this to happen and OBVIOUSLY no one is giving up a top flight prospect or the deal would have been done by now.

DiPasquale7
07-30-2010, 08:18 PM
there goes a grand slam. DONT TRADE HIM!!

boilerguy2412
07-30-2010, 09:01 PM
Who is the most comparable player in the league to Bautista. I can't really think of a guy that is like him. Maybe Jason Worth.

North Yorker
07-30-2010, 09:04 PM
Who is the most comparable player in the league to Bautista. I can't really think of a guy that is like him. Maybe Jason Worth.

the right handed carlos pena

wolverine
07-30-2010, 09:06 PM
the right handed carlos pena

except bautistas avg is alot higher

Johann
07-30-2010, 09:06 PM
jim thome...maybe

Johann
07-30-2010, 09:07 PM
the right handed carlos pena

and less strikeouts

boilerguy2412
07-30-2010, 09:10 PM
I wouldn't say Thome or Pena because Bautista plays 2 of the hardest positions on the field, Thome and Pena either DH or play 1st, Pena is an A+ defender but has no speed which Bautista does, IMO he could steal 20 bases if he had more oppurtunity's.

wolverine
07-30-2010, 09:11 PM
Yes I am.

Bautista has 10 "just enough" home runs, and 11 "no doubters."

Currently, 30% of his home runs barely made it over the fence. When that number is that high, the player is a high risk to regress at some point in the near future. Given his past history, the evidence of his regression is mounting.

Do *your* homework "kid."

since september of last year Jose "the regression" Bautista has 41 homeruns, man is that ever one hell of a regression.
everyone here can use google Donna good work though

wolverine
07-30-2010, 09:12 PM
I wouldn't say Thome or Pena because Bautista plays 2 of the hardest positions on the field, Thome and Pena either DH or play 1st, Pena is an A+ defender but has no speed which Bautista does, IMO he could steal 20 bases if he had more oppurtunity's.

He is very hard to compaire to anyone, cuz yes he does play 2 of the harder positions and has a little speed,
whatever he is doing it exciting to watch

jaysfan55
07-30-2010, 09:25 PM
I think Bautista will be a Jay for the rest of the year..we want too much in return for him and I think that was planned. In the meantime there is one day left...this is what I think

Bautista- Stays
Downs- traded to giants
Buck- Stays
Overbay- Stays
Gregg- Traded to National leauge
Frasor- Traded to Dodgers

We will call up Sean Henn, Zep, and Accardo to fill in the pen for the rest of the year.

Johann
07-30-2010, 09:26 PM
ill go at different ends totally.
brauns offence + speed potential + defense + plays OF and 3b
willingham's average + speed + strikeout:ball ratio
pat burrell in 2008 same avg and similar offensive production
dunns offensive, minus defense, same speed, minus strikeouts
cuddyer with less avg, similar hr, same speed, same positions.

the_jon
07-30-2010, 09:54 PM
the right handed carlos pena
Carlos Pena is the left handed Jose Bautista

StayOnBoard
07-30-2010, 10:20 PM
The latest courtesy of mlb trade rumors


Jose Bautista Rumors: Friday
By Ben Nicholson-Smith [July 30 at 9:12pm CST]

Jose Bautista picked up two walks and three hits tonight, including a grand slam. It's safe to say his trade value is pretty high. Here's the latest on the Blue Jays right fielder:

* Bautista is the player the Giants want, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (via Twitter). Heyman suggests the Jays could target Emmanuel Burriss or Ehire Adrianza in a trade.
* The Blue Jays and Giants have had extensive conversations, but San Francisco finds Toronto’s asking prices for Scott Downs and Bautista too high, according to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.
* Yesterday, Heyman reported that many teams besides the Giants were interested in Bautista.


http://www. **************. com/2010/07/jose-bautista-rumors-friday.html

edit: ugh... I hate filters like that

StayOnBoard
07-30-2010, 10:25 PM
A bit more via twitter

Jon Morosi jonmorosi

Bautista exited for a PR late tonight, but #Jays officials say it was mgr's decision, not trade-related. #TRADES #SFGiants

So - no trade yet... it'll be an interesting day as it seems like the Giants are really big on him. I hope we can get a stud prospect - the Giants have a lot of them (too bad their best ones are promoted) :) Posey and Bumgarner are untouchable anyways

North Yorker
07-31-2010, 10:52 AM
Jose Bautista-OF-Blue Jays Jul. 31 - 10:45 am et

The Blue Jays are more motivated to keep Jose Bautista than deal him as of now, according to ESPN's Buster Olney.

The league's home run leader will be due roughly $6 million in 2011, which is pretty expensive unless you think his power outburst this season is at least partly for real. Bautista does offer the team versatility, though, and they certainly don't need to trade him if they don't get an offer that they really like.
Source: Buster Olney on Twitter

Looks like he may be staying, which Im fine with. Im ok with a Bautista-Escobar-Hill-Lind IF next year, with Snider moving into RF.

T.O. Fan
07-31-2010, 11:31 AM
^^^Where's the love for EE?

Is he the DH next year?

He's been hitting well.

idrinkpepsi
07-31-2010, 11:34 AM
Is he the DH next year?

He's been hitting well.

Can't see the Jays resigning him at all.

T.O. Fan
07-31-2010, 11:36 AM
He's not a FA.

idrinkpepsi
07-31-2010, 12:39 PM
He's not a FA.

I keep forgetting he's arbitration eligible.

wamco
07-31-2010, 12:43 PM
could be cut

donatolla
07-31-2010, 12:44 PM
If you look at HR leaders of past im sure they had 10-15 just enough homeruns. So are they just flukes?

*sigh*

There are many years worth of data what shows what is, and isn't, a normal amount of "just enough" home runs. Go look it up.

wolverine
07-31-2010, 12:47 PM
"just enough" homers LOL i must be the dumb one to think they all count

nstojic
07-31-2010, 12:49 PM
"just enough" homers LOL i must be the dumb one to think they all count

if you're dumb, i must be a complete ****** because to me, they all leave the 'park'...

StayOnBoard
07-31-2010, 12:52 PM
"just enough" homers LOL i must be the dumb one to think they all count

I guess I'll join the dumb train as well then :clap:

A homer is a homer, period... those stats DO exist yes, created by people grasping for straws or with nothing better to do. Seriously - I do get the "just enough ones" are measured to test a player's "logical" chance at hitting a home run in another ball park compared to the one that just squeezed out... but if we're doing it to Bautista, we should do it with everyone else. Let's look at all the hitters ball parks *Coors cough* and what... we're just gonna say those players can't "really" hit because they're in a friendly park? Or how many stars have I seen just barely squeak one out? It all counts.

Of course not... a homer is still a homer... it still counts - the runs still score. It affected the outcome of that ball game, so counting 'what if's' only works in horseshoes and hand grenades.

nstojic
07-31-2010, 12:54 PM
hell, some don't even leave the yard and count as a homer, just the same :shrug:

broncosfan_101
07-31-2010, 12:56 PM
"just enough" homers LOL i must be the dumb one to think they all count

Good lord, of course they all count, but like xFIP, it's a good predictor of future performance. If a large percentage of his homers barely clear the fence, there's a good chance that it normalizes at some point, and he starts flying out to the warning track more often.

This isn't that difficult guys. It's just a matter of realizing that baseball has a lot of luck involved.

nstojic
07-31-2010, 01:00 PM
^^ or he'll hit 15 less HR's, next year, but 10 more doubles...

donatolla
07-31-2010, 01:02 PM
^^It's not a ridiculous argument, it's that people clearly aren't understanding the argument. No one's trying to discredit Bautista's 2010 season, no one's trying to say he sucks, what they're trying to do is use all the data available to predict what he's gonna do in the next few years of his career.

I'm sure JE home runs were a "foolish stat" last year when they (in addition to a host of other things) showed Aaron Hill as a 20-25 HR guy going forward instead of the 35+ he had in '09.

Exactly. The HR's he's hitting are an aberration. It doesn't necessarily mean he's a bad player, just that he is unlikely to continue at this pace. And that affects his value in a trade.

Want a better comparison? Look no further than Brady Anderson. Like Bautista, Brady had a strange spike in homeruns, without a significant change to a lot of other areas of his game.

donatolla
07-31-2010, 01:03 PM
^^ or he'll hit 15 less HR's, next year, but 10 more doubles...

That's entirely possible. Likely even.

broncosfan_101
07-31-2010, 01:07 PM
^^ or he'll hit 15 less HR's, next year, but 10 more doubles...

Not really, Just Enough HR's are usually the ones that fielders have a beat on until they just run out of room at the wall. We're talking about FB homers as opposed to the LD homers that have been no-doubters.

bomber0104
07-31-2010, 01:12 PM
Exactly. The HR's he's hitting are an aberration. It doesn't necessarily mean he's a bad player, just that he is unlikely to continue at this pace. And that affects his value in a trade.

Want a better comparison? Look no further than Brady Anderson. Like Bautista, Brady had a strange spike in homeruns, without a significant change to a lot of other areas of his game.

thats an awful comparison.. Anderson was definitely on steroids

wamco
07-31-2010, 01:13 PM
brady anderson was on juice, not the best example.

How much does an inside the park homer count in terms of just enough?

broncosfan_101
07-31-2010, 01:15 PM
thats an awful comparison.. Anderson was definitely on steroids

OK, but did he just lose the number of his supplier in the following years after his 50 HR season, when he hit 18, 18, 24 and 19? He was probably still on the juice at that point, why didn't the flyballs keep leaving the yard?

donatolla
07-31-2010, 01:20 PM
I guess I'll join the dumb train as well then :clap:
Of course not... a homer is still a homer... it still counts - the runs still score. It affected the outcome of that ball game, so counting 'what if's' only works in horseshoes and hand grenades.

Seriously? All home runs count. That's not the point.

The chances of a player hitting home runs at the same rate in the future can be predicted if you look into all the data available.

Players *VERY* rarely go from 'meh' to a fearful HR threat like this. I, for one, am not willing to christen Bautista as "awesome homerun hero" like so many others quite yet.

donatolla
07-31-2010, 01:32 PM
thats an awful comparison.. Anderson was definitely on steroids

Yes...but he wasn't on the juice for just one year. For the most part, he was very consistent - with the exception of a 200 point spike in slugging and ISO for one year. Just about everything else is in line...except BABIP.

StayOnBoard
07-31-2010, 01:36 PM
Yes...but he wasn't on the juice for just one year. For the most part, he was very consistent - with the exception of a 200 point spike in slugging and ISO for one year. Just about everything else is in line...except BABIP.

Right... except Anderson played everyday in Baltimore where as Bautista hasn't played more than half a season. He's NEVER been given the full-time position on the field that allows him to focus on not being benched after an 0-4 night.

Im not sure you understand how huge that is when it comes to a guys mental (and therefore physical) ability.

All that said, I dont expect him to hit 40 home runs for the next 4-5 years...but 25-30 is certainly not out of the question.

donatolla
07-31-2010, 01:48 PM
Im not sure you understand how huge that is when it comes to a guys mental (and therefore physical) ability.

All that said, I dont expect him to hit 40 home runs for the next 4-5 years...but 25-30 is certainly not out of the question.

Quite the contrary - I understand how irrelevant it is.

I'm not saying it is impossible that Bautista has figured something out, just that it is extremely unlikely, career years happen, and smart GM's don't want to pay for that.

StayOnBoard
07-31-2010, 01:52 PM
Quite the contrary - I understand how irrelevant it is.


Umm... how irrelevant? I think that proved my point (unless you mis-typed).



I'm not saying it is impossible that Bautista has figured something out, just that it is extremely unlikely, career years happen, and smart GM's don't want to pay for that.

Im not disagreeing with you here... GMs don't want to pay for it because it's the other side of the argument. They wouldn't be a good GM if they didn't barter to the biggest weakness of the player they are targetting. And I also agree he's having a career year, likely his best year ever. That still doesn't mean he won't hit 30 home runs and play stellar D at both 3rd and the OF

donatolla
07-31-2010, 02:06 PM
Umm... how irrelevant? I think that proved my point (unless you mis-typed).

Bautista has enough time handling major league pitching under his belt that it doesn't matter. Baseball has a lot of mythology that just isn't true. It's irrelevant.


Im not disagreeing with you here... GMs don't want to pay for it because it's the other side of the argument. They wouldn't be a good GM if they didn't barter to the biggest weakness of the player they are targetting. And I also agree he's having a career year, likely his best year ever. That still doesn't mean he won't hit 30 home runs and play stellar D at both 3rd and the OF

I agree with everything except the 30 HR part and stellar D. Make that 20ish and Average (3rd) to slightly above average (RF) D, and we're ok (stellar only works in comparison to the rest of the outfield). ;)

broncosfan_101
07-31-2010, 02:43 PM
Bautista will probably be Michael Cuddyer with a little less contact, a little more slugging and moderately better D.