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View Full Version : Jose Bautista Wants to Stay Long Term in TO



BlueJayCarter
07-18-2010, 05:01 PM
Jose Bautista was honored that Alex Anthopoulos called him to help get Yunel Escobar settled into his new environment, writes MLB.com's Jordan Bastian. Bautista says that he loves Toronto and would like to stay there long-term.

As stated by Jordan Bastian

http://********************************/toronto_blue_jays/

What do you think? Should he stay after this year performance and fill in a positional vacancy and hopefully put up 2010 numbers in the future as he is heading into the later years of his prime (next two to three). Or should he be traded?

If the right deal does not come along I think a two-year deal about 5-6.5 million a year with a team option for a third year might be good if the right deal doesn't come along. But I think some team will offer up the right amount of talent and the right number of prospects to land Bautista.

Pride
07-18-2010, 05:09 PM
Depends on if we get a solid offer for him. If we don't and he signs for like a 3 year 10-12m deal, I'm fine with that. But preferably, I'd like to sell high on him.

BlueJayFanDan
07-18-2010, 05:17 PM
Sell high. We could afford to keep him 2-3 more years while players develop but his value may never be what it is now.

BlueJayCarter
07-18-2010, 05:20 PM
Sell high. We could afford to keep him 2-3 more years while players develop but his value may never be what it is now.

But we need to have a high offer. He is the major league home run leader. I agree that the right offer will probably come in before the deadline and Toronto will be better for it with some prospects.

But we will have a good player for two or three years if A.A doesn't get a good offer.

nithanyo
07-18-2010, 05:33 PM
If a player wants to stay his stock is so much higher than if he wanted out. Plus you want players who love the city and want to stay. The man can hit 25+hr, play thirud, play outfield, and play first. He has above average D at all those posiitons so if we can get him for 4 million a season id keep him. He is alot more valuable then people give him credit for.

If we can get a really good peace in return however id move him. Im talkin Wallace type prospect cus were in no rush to move him

broncosfan_101
07-18-2010, 05:46 PM
I don't know if it was on PTS or Jays Connected, but someone threw out the idea of a contract in the 4 year, $18 mill range. I personally like the idea. It's a nice gesture from the organization that he's a valuable part of our team, but even if he regresses back to prior form after this season, it's not a contract that will hinder us moving forward. At worse, he'll be an overpaid yet still decent bench guy for 4 years. I can live with that.

carson005
07-18-2010, 05:48 PM
Hes going to regress power wise, sell high.

nithanyo
07-18-2010, 05:53 PM
I don't know if it was on PTS or Jays Connected, but someone threw out the idea of a contract in the 4 year, $18 mill range. I personally like the idea. It's a nice gesture from the organization that he's a valuable part of our team, but even if he regresses back to prior form after this season, it's not a contract that will hinder us moving forward. At worse, he'll be an overpaid yet still decent bench guy for 4 years. I can live with that.

Exactly. Look at our bench right now. Even if he does regress look at our bench options right now. He's extremely versatile. Jmac, Molina, and Wise are horrible bench options. Those guys cant hit a house league pitcher. At 4 mill a season id keep him

idrinkpepsi
07-18-2010, 05:55 PM
I don't know if it was on PTS or Jays Connected, but someone threw out the idea of a contract in the 4 year, $18 mill range. I personally like the idea. It's a nice gesture from the organization that he's a valuable part of our team, but even if he regresses back to prior form after this season, it's not a contract that will hinder us moving forward. At worse, he'll be an overpaid yet still decent bench guy for 4 years. I can live with that.

I wouldn't mind that, we have enough money to do that once Overbay is gone in the off-season he could start at third maybe for us. Which ends the discussion of who to take out of the lineup when Edwin comes back, he is very versatile too which is extremely good. It could provide us a sort of Alex Gonzalez-esqe replacement until we get a 3B of the future here.

broncosfan_101
07-18-2010, 06:02 PM
I wouldn't mind that, we have enough money to do that once Overbay is gone in the off-season he could start at third maybe for us. Which ends the discussion of who to take out of the lineup when Edwin comes back, he is very versatile too which is extremely good. It could provide us a sort of Alex Gonzalez-esqe replacement until we get a 3B of the future here.

We could use Bautista and Lewis as a platoon in the OF. Against RHP, Lewis in LF and Snider in RF. Against LHP, Bautista in RF and Snider in LF. And if we want to keep Lewis in the lineup but still fit Bautista in, he can give Wallace the day off against a tough lefty at 1B. Throw in some AB's with average-decent D at 3B, and we can almost use him like Tampa used Ben Zobrist last year.

Such versatility.

BlueJayCarter
07-18-2010, 06:29 PM
And add third base for Jose Bautista as well as giving a day off to Wallace and switching with Lewis and Snider in the outfield. I can see with something like that, 125-135 games a season for Bautista so it is not like he would be a true off the bench player.

And have Emaus back him up at third to give Emaus the chance at the show.

DiPasquale7
07-18-2010, 06:33 PM
I'd have no problem with either extending him or trading him. If they can get good value, ship him out.. If not, lock him up. I like his power at 3B for us going forward.

Personally, I like this lineup going forward:
LF- Lewis
2B- Hill
CF- Wells
DH- Lind
1B- Wallace
RF- Snider
SS- Escobar
3B- Bautista
C- Arencebia/ D'Arnaut

marcre
07-18-2010, 07:12 PM
I really hope we keep him. He does a lot of stuff well. I know some people love to hate him and keeping him will work for them too. Then they will still have something to complain about.

Rochesta
07-18-2010, 08:23 PM
^^ Lol true. If you got a guy who is playing well AND plays two positions, each of which you need long term, AND he wants to play for you AND he gets along with everyone you'd be stupid to flip him for prospects just for the sake of flipping him.

wamco
07-18-2010, 08:38 PM
4 years is an awful idea

hntrr31
07-18-2010, 09:02 PM
I don't think you should overlook the value of having high character guys in the locker room. We all remember how things are with constant rumblings of discontent from the team; and granted, a lot of that might have been due to Gibbons. But the fact that AA would ask a guy who just got here this season to help Escobar acclimate speaks volumes.

Obviously you can't make personnel moves based on sentimentality, but in my opinion Bautista is the type of guy you want playing on your team. As long as you can compensate for his relatively poor BA (assuming Lind and Hill, in particular, get their acts together), I think he's a pretty strong asset for this team. And I certainly wouldn't let him go unless you've got a deal on the table that you really can't refuse.

B2theRY
07-18-2010, 10:13 PM
Trade him for a REAL 3B
because we all know he is our future at 3B (as of right now)

Snider comes back he should be playing everyday.

Gibby
07-18-2010, 10:53 PM
If a player wants to stay his stock is so much higher than if he wanted out. Plus you want players who love the city and want to stay. The man can hit 25+hr, play thirud, play outfield, and play first. He has above average D at all those posiitons so if we can get him for 4 million a season id keep him. He is alot more valuable then people give him credit for.

If we can get a really good peace in return however id move him. Im talkin Wallace type prospect cus were in no rush to move him


I don't know if it was on PTS or Jays Connected, but someone threw out the idea of a contract in the 4 year, $18 mill range. I personally like the idea. It's a nice gesture from the organization that he's a valuable part of our team, but even if he regresses back to prior form after this season, it's not a contract that will hinder us moving forward. At worse, he'll be an overpaid yet still decent bench guy for 4 years. I can live with that.

4 to 4.5 million for 4 years is a great deal and i would lock him up. Is he going to settle $ 4 Million a year after a year like this. i think we will need to give him atleast 7 mill and 3 or 4 years min to keep. I dont think were in this position give contracts like that now. Bautista seems a like risk since this is his 1st big year and its coming at the age 29.

The_Jet11
07-18-2010, 10:53 PM
I say if Bautista is asking for a reasonable contract, give him the starting 3B job heading into 2011, and for the remainder of the 2010 season. He's so positionally flexible, he would make an ideal super-sub, should the Jays acquire a top flight 3B prospect. His strong clubhouse character should at least be considered, and if he's outwardly stated that he'd like to stay with the organization, why would you deal a guy like that. There have been plenty of players who've wanted out in recent years, so keep retain him at a reasonable value if you can.

That said, if you're overwhelmed by an offer and it will make the Jays a stronger club going forward, pull the trigger.

ramz.n
07-18-2010, 11:54 PM
oh course hes going to say that..what proffessional is going to get himself booed because he knows hes having a career year and is going to be traded..but if hes willing to take a discount he could be the everyday 3B of the future.

Manatoo
07-19-2010, 12:30 AM
What else would he say? "God no i hate Toronto and cant wait to be out of this hellhole".....

He only has one real shot of making good money for the rest of his baseball career, he is just going to go where the most money is, which he has every right to do.

koreancabbage
07-19-2010, 12:40 AM
we have no legit 3rd baseman prospects... you gotta keep Bautista...

Halladay
07-19-2010, 01:10 AM
If you can get a good prospect for him then sure otherwise, hold onto him. It may be a good idea to hold onto a Latino vet on this team with some of our younger pieces coming through the ranks being from that part of the world.

hlhiii
07-19-2010, 01:21 AM
I say keep him because his price is going to be reasonable. The player we need to try to move is vernon. No better time to trade him than now even if you get nothing in return and have to eat a huge portion of that contract. This is the line-up I want to see next season.

Crawford - LF (Yea i know wishful thinking but it would be nice)
Escobar - SS
Bautista - 3B
Snider - RF
Lind - DH/1B
Hill - 2B
Wallace - 1B/DH
Arencibia - C
Mastroianni - CF

Halladay
07-19-2010, 01:34 AM
No GM in their right mind would take on Wells. No way.

BlueJayFanDan
07-19-2010, 01:45 AM
I really like Bautista but I dunno why you guys want to keep him even if the right deal comes along. He is having a career year as far as power numbers and he is very good on defense but we have too many other power bats like him and not to mention he is 30 and we could get someone a lot better for the future. I want to keep him as a bench player but would rather move him while his value is high. We need to get a guy in the lineup similar to Lewis and Escobar who can get on base because our whole lineup besides those 2 is basically full of power guys.

bomber0104
07-19-2010, 02:01 AM
There are a lot of factors that play into this..

first thing is his trade value. If a team is desperate enough to offer a top prospect for Bautista. You pull the trigger and go for it. Problem is, there are guys like Hart and Willingham who are also on the block so that will give the opposing teams leverage in a deal.

If no deal is good enough, then you got to think about locking him up. This brings in the contract issue. How much do you give a guy that he only had 1 good year in the majors with that yaer being his free agency year. I wouldn't mind signing Bautista but I wouldn't commit to him for more than 3 years and won't give him over 5 million dollars. You can't pay a guy based on his free agency year. Many teams have made that mistake and it didnt turn out well

Gibby
07-19-2010, 02:41 AM
There are a lot of factors that play into this..

first thing is his trade value. If a team is desperate enough to offer a top prospect for Bautista. You pull the trigger and go for it. Problem is, there are guys like Hart and Willingham who are also on the block so that will give the opposing teams leverage in a deal.

If no deal is good enough, then you got to think about locking him up. This brings in the contract issue. How much do you give a guy that he only had 1 good year in the majors with that yaer being his free agency year. I wouldn't mind signing Bautista but I wouldn't commit to him for more than 3 years and won't give him over 5 million dollars. You can't pay a guy based on his free agency year. Many teams have made that mistake and it didnt turn out well

+1 but i think he will get more than that somewhere.

statquo
07-19-2010, 03:03 AM
There are a lot of factors that play into this..

first thing is his trade value. If a team is desperate enough to offer a top prospect for Bautista. You pull the trigger and go for it. Problem is, there are guys like Hart and Willingham who are also on the block so that will give the opposing teams leverage in a deal.

If no deal is good enough, then you got to think about locking him up. This brings in the contract issue. How much do you give a guy that he only had 1 good year in the majors with that yaer being his free agency year. I wouldn't mind signing Bautista but I wouldn't commit to him for more than 3 years and won't give him over 5 million dollars. You can't pay a guy based on his free agency year. Many teams have made that mistake and it didnt turn out well

+2... I can't believe people are even considering or saying that they'd support signing him for over 3 years. I might give him something like that after he does it again next year but until then... no thanks.

StealingSigns
07-19-2010, 03:19 AM
The ray of hope.....

2 years tops.

nithanyo
07-19-2010, 05:46 AM
I say keep him because his price is going to be reasonable. The player we need to try to move is vernon. No better time to trade him than now even if you get nothing in return and have to eat a huge portion of that contract. This is the line-up I want to see next season.

Crawford - LF (Yea i know wishful thinking but it would be nice)
Escobar - SS
Bautista - 3B
Snider - RF
Lind - DH/1B
Hill - 2B
Wallace - 1B/DH
Arencibia - C
Mastroianni - CF

Wells aint goin nowhere buddy. If we are to move him we would have to eat at the least 40 million dollars.Why would you do that?? Id rather keep him and let him perform. He wants to stay, his defense and offense seem to be back. We all know he isnt going to be much better than a .280 guy with 28 hrs with average defense. As a fan im completley satisfied with that and so should everyone else, cus when he signed that contract we all were happy locking up an all star CF who hit above .300 and 30+ hr twice in his career.

wamco
07-19-2010, 06:48 AM
I say keep him because his price is going to be reasonable.

Actually, his price would be at its highest point right now.

If ANYTHING, you simply offer him arbitration at the end of the season and see how next year goes. There is NO need to do a multi-year contract right now. Had we waited until the following year to offer wells a contract rather than buy out his last year, our organization could be completely different.

and this is jose bautista, a guy with lifetime splits that make me puke.

wamco
07-19-2010, 06:49 AM
However, I would find it moderately dirty if AA calls him and asks for his help mentoring Escobar and then trades Bautista the next week. That wouldn't wreak of class.

GrumpyOldMan
07-19-2010, 07:42 AM
I would trade Bautista while his value is so high but only if you get the right deal for him. As others have stated, he plays good defence in the outfield and at third base, and he actually wants to be here, which is saying something.

nithanyo
07-19-2010, 07:46 AM
I say keep him because his price is going to be reasonable.

Actually, his price would be at its highest point right now.

If ANYTHING, you simply offer him arbitration at the end of the season and see how next year goes. There is NO need to do a multi-year contract right now. Had we waited until the following year to offer wells a contract rather than buy out his last year, our organization could be completely different.

and this is jose bautista, a guy with lifetime splits that make me puke.

Had we waited another year with Rios we would have one of the best outfielders in the game

Had we given carpenter that extra 500,000 we would have been a totally different franchise

Had we somehow pulled off a Rios for lincecum trade this franchise would be different

You take risks in baseball.
Bautista is a low risk high reward deal. At worst he is a super utility with above average defense at third, first and outfield. Frankly anywher up to 5 million on a player like Bautista is a low risk deal. We have alot of money coming off the books as well. 6 mill owed to halladay, 10 to BJ4 to downs, 7 to overbay, 5 to encarnasion( ithink he still has arbitration), 2.5 to Frasor, 2 to buck, 2.75 to gregg, 2 to tallet,

thats 31 mill coming off the books excluding the 10 mill for BJ ryan which would be added to wells contract:speechless:

R. Johnson#3
07-19-2010, 08:23 AM
I just can't see him repeating this season. Ever.

bartron_44
07-19-2010, 09:24 AM
The problem with the argument of 'he'll never repeat this type of season' is that he doesn't have to in order to be valuable to our team. His defensive abilities at the hot corner and all OF positions make him extremely valuable imo. The guy LEADS THE MAJORS in outfield assists, and he has only played half his games in the OF ffs!! Or in other words, he has an absolute weapon of a right arm.

However, with the addition of Lewis, I think we may have to move him over to 3rd base (for at least most of the time barring injuries). A 3rd baseman with his power is pretty rare these days, and he is more than adequate defensively at the hot corner as well.

Also, how can someone make the argument that we need to move him for someone who can get on base? The guy leads our team in on base percentage (other than the new addition Escobar) with an OBP of .355. Sure he has a low batting average, but his OBP is 12 points higher then our lead off hitter...and he leads our team by far in walks. So he is actually the most patient/selective hitter we have.

ah nuts
07-19-2010, 10:01 AM
The problem with the argument of 'he'll never repeat this type of season'
.

And he is hitting in the .230s. I'm confident he can repeat that.

Also if he gets in a full season next year, I see no reason why he can't hit 30+ homers. It's not like his homers are just falling over the fence. The power swing is there.

Nofear
07-19-2010, 10:25 AM
I just can't see him repeating this season. Ever.

Why would he not be able to repeat this season? A .230 average and 30+ hrs is quite achievable with his swing. You're using cliché without logic if you say he'll never repeat this season.

What exactly do you think he can't repeat. Ever? Is it the .230 average you don't think he can maintain? Is it the 3 SB? The .355 OBP?

I guess you must be talking HRs because thats the only stat that is possibly inflated. So you say he'll never repeat. Ever. I guess thats good news for fans because the Jays must be building a new ballpark before next year because that swing at the Rogers Centre looks like 30 hrs annually to me. Hope they have outdoor stadium with grass this time.

R. Johnson#3
07-19-2010, 11:43 AM
Why would he not be able to repeat this season? A .230 average and 30+ hrs is quite achievable with his swing. You're using cliché without logic if you say he'll never repeat this season.

What exactly do you think he can't repeat. Ever? Is it the .230 average you don't think he can maintain? Is it the 3 SB? The .355 OBP?

I guess you must be talking HRs because thats the only stat that is possibly inflated. So you say he'll never repeat. Ever. I guess thats good news for fans because the Jays must be building a new ballpark before next year because that swing at the Rogers Centre looks like 30 hrs annually to me. Hope they have outdoor stadium with grass this time.

Good for you smartypants! I'm obviously talking about the consistant numbers he's put up through his career and not the sudden jump in his HRs! Have a cookie.

How am I even using cliche? I'll admit, there are no stats or facts behind my reasoning here but 4 years before this season he never got more than 16 HRs. He does have a big swing that normally sends the ball out on a line drive but you can't tell me that swing looks good. It's completely wild. I like Bautista and if we do keep him I hope I'm wrong but I think it would be best to sell now.

icehawkmike
07-19-2010, 12:45 PM
Most of you seem to forget that the team has no third baseman next year...encarnacion is gone....trade Bautista and who will play 3rd next year????

It would have to be a superb package for the Jays to even think about a trade for JBau. No one is going to trade a top notch 3rd base prospect, they are too rare for teams too lose them.

3 years + 1 yt option at 4-5 mil per year, lock him up!

Nofear
07-19-2010, 01:00 PM
Good for you smartypants! I'm obviously talking about the consistant numbers he's put up through his career and not the sudden jump in his HRs! Have a cookie.

How am I even using cliche? I'll admit, there are no stats or facts behind my reasoning here but 4 years before this season he never got more than 16 HRs. He does have a big swing that normally sends the ball out on a line drive but you can't tell me that swing looks good. It's completely wild. I like Bautista and if we do keep him I hope I'm wrong but I think it would be best to sell now.

No one is doubting the sell now approach you're refering to.

The cliché part is you throw out the "He'll never repeat this season. Ever" comment because thats been used to death and in this case, theres no abnormal stats that such a statement applies to. How exactly does that statement apply when it one single stat thats out of the norm? So he can't repeat this season in what 1 out of like 10 major hitting categories? Do you not see how that statement doesn't apply in this case? I'm not smarty pants, I'm common sense pants and that statement is grossly incorrect for one single stat. Its also one of the most cliché statements in baseball forums , right next to have a cookie. Nothing like blending in with the masses I guess.

Lastly, no doubt he's got a wild swing, nobody is disputing that. You look at that swing and it screams high HR's and low AVG. You claim he'll never repeat but that swing and the Rogers Centre were made for each other.

Bottom line is everything he's dne except the HR is right around what is expected. To say he'll never repeat the season performance based on one category is kinda small picture don't you think? Like you said in the above bold, there are no stats or facts behind your reason but you choose to make such a broad statement like never repeating that just doesn't apply.

JaysFan87
07-19-2010, 01:42 PM
And he is hitting in the .230s. I'm confident he can repeat that.

Also if he gets in a full season next year, I see no reason why he can't hit 30+ homers. It's not like his homers are just falling over the fence. The power swing is there.

Well he is second in the AL in"Just Enough" homeruns so he is getting his fair share of luck.

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/homeruns_special.php?league=AL&type=JE

marcre
07-19-2010, 01:47 PM
The more HR's you have, the more just enough HR's you'll have. He's also crushed the hell out of some.

Anyway, that's one of the stupider stats there is.

Shifty1 69
07-19-2010, 02:03 PM
I really like Bautista but I dunno why you guys want to keep him even if the right deal comes along. He is having a career year as far as power numbers and he is very good on defense but we have too many other power bats like him and not to mention he is 30 and we could get someone a lot better for the future. I want to keep him as a bench player but would rather move him while his value is high. We need to get a guy in the lineup similar to Lewis and Escobar who can get on base because our whole lineup besides those 2 is basically full of power guys.

For starters, the Jays just traded away one of those "power" bats that were in the lineup (gonzo)... at least he can take a walk and has shown the ability to get on base. He has gone through a really tough patch and his BA is showing it, but he still leads the majors in HR, and he is one of the few guys you have that actually get on base... he also leads the league in walks I believe.
The more I think about it, the price it would take to pry him away gets higher for me. We all know this is a pace he shouldnt be able to keep, but we've been saying it since sept of last year. HR's aside, even if he reverted to a 25 HR a year guy, with his versatility on defense (and ability to play really well everywhere), a little bit of speed ability to get on base... whats the harm in keeping him and if it can be done for $5/$6mil or so over hopefully no more than 3 years.... then how bad can that be? Certainly not $ that will handcuff the Jays in any way. Every team, even the best have valuable members that arent 5 tools superstars, hell the Phillies won with Pedro Feliz as a starting 3B.
If you can get an elite talent (not "good prospect"), no more than 2 years away at worst.... then sure, anyone is available for the right price. The idea of trading him just cause he's at his peak trade value (which I disagree with since he seems to suffer with the lack of a track record), just for the sake of trading him, doesnt make sense to me. I dont think he goes anywhere because teams would be taking a huge risk paying the price it would/should require.
Buck and any and all relievers, etc., trade away....:clap:

nithanyo
07-19-2010, 02:11 PM
Well he is second in the AL in"Just Enough" homeruns so he is getting his fair share of luck. http://www.hittrackeronline.com/homeruns_special.php?league=AL&type=JEJust enough homeruns???? Really. Why are you trying to pull stats like this just to bash the guy? He is leading the majors in homeruns and the fact that it just barely made it over the fence or was 500 feet should not matter imo.

Heres another stat for you. He hit15 of his 25 jacks in Toronto. The ballpark isnt going to get any bigger so his numbers should drastically drop no?

B2theRY
07-19-2010, 02:16 PM
However, I would find it moderately dirty if AA calls him and asks for his help mentoring Escobar and then trades Bautista the next week. That wouldn't wreak of class.

i dont... im sure bautista is smart enough to know his value is never going to be higher.

bomber0104
07-19-2010, 03:04 PM
Well he is second in the AL in"Just Enough" homeruns so he is getting his fair share of luck.

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/homeruns_special.php?league=AL&type=JE

again.. he is also second and 3rd in no doubters..

If you are gonna hit 25 HRs, obviously a few of them are gonna barely clear the fence

JaysFan87
07-19-2010, 03:10 PM
Why would he not be able to repeat this season? A .230 average and 30+ hrs is quite achievable with his swing. You're using cliché without logic if you say he'll never repeat this season.

What exactly do you think he can't repeat. Ever? Is it the .230 average you don't think he can maintain? Is it the 3 SB? The .355 OBP?

I guess you must be talking HRs because thats the only stat that is possibly inflated. So you say he'll never repeat. Ever. I guess thats good news for fans because the Jays must be building a new ballpark before next year because that swing at the Rogers Centre looks like 30 hrs annually to me. Hope they have outdoor stadium with grass this time.

No what he will not replicate is his HR/FB rate which currently stands at 19.2%. That is an incredible number to keep and is something this is way way up from his career norms. ALmost double in fact. At 19.2% he ranks right behind Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Howard. Sorry but you dont become that dominant of a hitter all of a sudden.

JaysFan87
07-19-2010, 03:16 PM
Just enough homeruns???? Really. Why are you trying to pull stats like this just to bash the guy? He is leading the majors in homeruns and the fact that it just barely made it over the fence or was 500 feet should not matter imo.

Heres another stat for you. He hit15 of his 25 jacks in Toronto. The ballpark isnt going to get any bigger so his numbers should drastically drop no?

5 feet shorter and its not a HR.....anyways you guys enjoy this drug bautista is giving you guys. Once he reverts back to his career norms of OPSing in the low to mid .700's then we will continue this convo.

bomber0104
07-19-2010, 03:28 PM
Atlanta apparently showed some interest when discussing the Gonzo trade.. I would do it in a sec if they offerend one of Minor or Delgado

Nofear
07-19-2010, 03:48 PM
No what he will not replicate is his HR/FB rate which currently stands at 19.2%. That is an incredible number to keep and is something this is way way up from his career norms. ALmost double in fact. At 19.2% he ranks right behind Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Howard. Sorry but you dont become that dominant of a hitter all of a sudden.

Do you have any idea what you're talking about? This post has zero to do with what I said.

Just to appease you, do you serious think the HR/FB rate would not go up when you hit in the best spot in the lineup and your manager and hitting coach encourage you to forget OBP and swing for the fence? Please, the change is obviously a product of the system and if the system stays the same, why would this change? If his manager asked him to steal ever time he's on base his steals would be up. If he was told to sit back and work the count his walks would be up.

The guy is doing everything his manager and hitting coach are asking him to do but you stat idiots think its some cosmic anomaly but the truth is the stat is up because that’s what he's told to do. You stats losers that sit in your moms basemen will all be waiting to say "I told you so" when next years manager asks him to get a better OBP and not swing for the fences every pitch but the truth is stats have zero to do with it. Like I said stats do little to explain the big picture. News flash, no one here gives a **** about stupid stats that don't mean anything to the topic.

Don't you have enough on your hands defending the most stupid stat ever posted which is Just Enough HR's? Stats losers with ridiculous comments, that’s a shock.

Nofear
07-19-2010, 04:01 PM
5 feet shorter and its not a HR.....anyways you guys enjoy this drug bautista is giving you guys. Once he reverts back to his career norms of OPSing in the low to mid .700's then we will continue this convo.


Distances:
Right Field - 328 ft / 100 m
Right Center Field - 375 ft / 114 m
Center Field - 400 ft / 122 m
Left Center Field - 375 ft / 114 m
Left Field - 328 ft / 100 m

Rogers Centre dimensions (http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/tor/ballpark/a_z_guide.jsp#F)
Travel distance somehow has value now? What do frequent flyer miles apply to HR's?

So a ball that travels 20 feet over in left for 368 total is better than one that goes 401 to center and clears the fence by a foot?

Brilliant

Shifty1 69
07-19-2010, 04:09 PM
Do you have any idea what you're talking about? This post has zero to do with what I said.

Just to appease you, do you serious think the HR/FB rate would not go up when you hit in the best spot in the lineup and your manager and hitting coach encourage you to forget OBP and swing for the fence? Please, the change is obviously a product of the system and if the system stays the same, why would this change? If his manager asked him to steal ever time he's on base his steals would be up. If he was told to sit back and work the count his walks would be up.

The guy is doing everything his manager and hitting coach are asking him to do but you stat idiots think its some cosmic anomaly but the truth is the stat is up because that’s what he's told to do. You stats losers that sit in your moms basemen will all be waiting to say "I told you so" when next years manager asks him to get a better OBP and not swing for the fences every pitch but the truth is stats have zero to do with it. Like I said stats do little to explain the big picture. News flash, no one here gives a **** about stupid stats that don't mean anything to the topic.

Don't you have enough on your hands defending the most stupid stat ever posted which is Just Enough HR's? Stats losers with ridiculous comments, that’s a shock.

If he was under orders to "swing away and forget OBP", thus hitting more flyballs... how is it that he leads the league in walks?? Kinda contradictory IMO;)
However, it has been said a million times since last season, he made a change to his swing and he has done nothing but hit HR's. I dont think he's a perennial 40HR guy, but he has power to hit 25-30. Perhaps it was this adjustment which has lead to the increased flyball rate rather than direction from his manager.

Nofear
07-19-2010, 04:52 PM
If he was under orders to "swing away and forget OBP", thus hitting more flyballs... how is it that he leads the league in walks?? Kinda contradictory IMO;)
However, it has been said a million times since last season, he made a change to his swing and he has done nothing but hit HR's. I dont think he's a perennial 40HR guy, but he has power to hit 25-30. Perhaps it was this adjustment which has lead to the increased flyball rate rather than direction from his manager.

Kinda contradictory huh? Do you think Bonds tried to get walked twice a game too? Do you think Bonds got walked because he was trying to raise his OBP instead of swinging for the fence? Come on use some logic. If you're leading the league in HR's you're also going to get walked more as pitchers try to stay away from you.

Also 41 of 55 walks came when hitting 5,6,7 in the order. Do you honestly think its because he worked the count more or maybe its because they really didn't mind walking Jose (and avoiding the longball) to pitch to the next guy who isn't as much a threat. Not getting as many walks with Wells and Lind up afterwards is he?

Originally I said 30+ hr's and all the rest of the stats were on par. I'm not sure what you two are reading, if you're reading anything, because all I ever said was he's basically got one stat thats not normal for him. Its quite clear to me that he's strong enough and swings for the fence enough and he's in the right ballpark to hit 30+ hrs again in his career. I never said 40 so don't know why you bring that up.

As for your adjustments rather than the manager, do you not see a trend throughout the lineup? Did everyone make the same hitting adjustment? No, its quite clear the manager and hitting coach prefer the HR more than anything. Cito has been best known for playing for big innings rather than a small ball run here and there approach for his entire managing career.

nithanyo
07-19-2010, 05:33 PM
5 feet shorter and its not a HR.....anyways you guys enjoy this drug bautista is giving you guys. Once he reverts back to his career norms of OPSing in the low to mid .700's then we will continue this convo.

Do you also realize the man leads the league in walks. Power numbers may drop but the ability to take walks is alot harder to lose

JaysFan87
07-19-2010, 05:34 PM
Do you have any idea what you're talking about? This post has zero to do with what I said.

Just to appease you, do you serious think the HR/FB rate would not go up when you hit in the best spot in the lineup and your manager and hitting coach encourage you to forget OBP and swing for the fence? Please, the change is obviously a product of the system and if the system stays the same, why would this change? If his manager asked him to steal ever time he's on base his steals would be up. If he was told to sit back and work the count his walks would be up.

The guy is doing everything his manager and hitting coach are asking him to do but you stat idiots think its some cosmic anomaly but the truth is the stat is up because that’s what he's told to do. You stats losers that sit in your moms basemen will all be waiting to say "I told you so" when next years manager asks him to get a better OBP and not swing for the fences every pitch but the truth is stats have zero to do with it. Like I said stats do little to explain the big picture. News flash, no one here gives a **** about stupid stats that don't mean anything to the topic.

Don't you have enough on your hands defending the most stupid stat ever posted which is Just Enough HR's? Stats losers with ridiculous comments, that’s a shock.

I find it incredible funny that people think that hitters can choose when to hit the ball hard/in the air/on the ground. Hitters go to the plate and try to hit a ball hard. They dont aim or hit it softer so that it lands in a specific place. THe coaching staff never said to forget OBP they just said to go up and look for you pitch to hit and if you get it, swing for it hard. Its kinda like any other team. You can call it working the count or you can call it swinging for the fences. But every player in the major league looks for their pitch to hit and they try and hit. Its not a real difference in TOronto. Stats are a great predictor of what is going ot happen simple and are great indicators of whether or not it will continue to happen.

For the record I would love Bautista to continue what he is doing for the next five years but ALL indications are that he is can not keep this up. Im a fan just like any else here but i chose to look at things objectively instead of hoping and praying. Some might even call that logical thinking but i guess that is beyond you.

Anyways thats it for me on the bautista subject. I said my piece. We'll see what happens in the end.

Go jays

Twitchy
07-19-2010, 05:42 PM
Also 41 of 55 walks came when hitting 5,6,7 in the order. Do you honestly think its because he worked the count more or maybe its because they really didn't mind walking Jose (and avoiding the longball) to pitch to the next guy who isn't as much a threat. Not getting as many walks with Wells and Lind up afterwards is he?

He's still walking a ton while batting third though. I'd chalk it up to small sample size more than anything else. For what it's worth he's not doing as well batting third, as he's hitting 195-293-448. Maybe the fact that he's not hitting as well batting third has led to a small drop in the walk rate (ie he's not seeing the ball as well)?


Originally I said 30+ hr's and all the rest of the stats were on par. I'm not sure what you two are reading, if you're reading anything, because all I ever said was he's basically got one stat thats not normal for him. Its quite clear to me that he's strong enough and swings for the fence enough and he's in the right ballpark to hit 30+ hrs again in his career. I never said 40 so don't know why you bring that up.

The comparison for Bautista has been made to Zobrist a bunch of times. So it's worth pointing out that Zobrist showed similar signs of hitting HR at a high rate (17.5% of his FB went for HR in his breakout year while Bautista did it 19% of the time) and then Zobrist went back to the 5-6% he's been throughout his career. He still is a productive hitter even without the high HR rate, which is something we might expect for Bautista in the future if this is a legit breakout year.

I guess what I'm getting at is that I don't think he's a 30-40 HR hitter going forward, but I could see him pumping out some 20-25 HR seasons. Which isn't to say that's bad, it's just I'd think we should expect a little regression on Bautista like we did with Hill (I'm talking about what we said before the season, not this sub 200 BA guy that showed up).


Just to appease you, do you serious think the HR/FB rate would not go up when you hit in the best spot in the lineup and your manager and hitting coach encourage you to forget OBP and swing for the fence? Please, the change is obviously a product of the system and if the system stays the same, why would this change? If his manager asked him to steal ever time he's on base his steals would be up. If he was told to sit back and work the count his walks would be up.

You mention that he's more likely to hit HR's hitting in the best spot in the lineup, but he's actually had the most struggles batting third as I mentioned earlier. So I'm not sure that I agree with this. It's also worth pointing out that in spite of his struggles, and even when Bautista is showing off the HR power, he's still showing tremendous plate discipline. He's the only guy in the lineup to show both power and on base skills without sacrificing one for the other. Which is what makes him so dangerous.

I've mentioned it before but the Jays are on pace to score about 50 runs less than last year, even though they're hitting significantly more HR. And it's because of their lack of on base skills.


As for your adjustments rather than the manager, do you not see a trend throughout the lineup? Did everyone make the same hitting adjustment? No, its quite clear the manager and hitting coach prefer the HR more than anything. Cito has been best known for playing for big innings rather than a small ball run here and there approach for his entire managing career.

Nothing wrong with this approach, but when they ignore getting on base that becomes a problem. If they come out and say "we like making outs" they'd be fired, which to me is no different than when Murphy says "OBP is useless".

Nofear
07-19-2010, 06:36 PM
I find it incredible funny that people think that hitters can choose when to hit the ball hard/in the air/on the ground. Hitters go to the plate and try to hit a ball hard. They dont aim or hit it softer so that it lands in a specific place. THe coaching staff never said to forget OBP they just said to go up and look for you pitch to hit and if you get it, swing for it hard. Its kinda like any other team. You can call it working the count or you can call it swinging for the fences. But every player in the major league looks for their pitch to hit and they try and hit. Its not a real difference in TOronto. Stats are a great predictor of what is going ot happen simple and are great indicators of whether or not it will continue to happen.

For the record I would love Bautista to continue what he is doing for the next five years but ALL indications are that he is can not keep this up. Im a fan just like any else here but i chose to look at things objectively instead of hoping and praying. Some might even call that logical thinking but i guess that is beyond you.

Anyways thats it for me on the bautista subject. I said my piece. We'll see what happens in the end.

Go jays

You find it incredibly funny do you? I find it incredibly naive that you think they always hit the ball hard.

So you're saying no batter has ever tried to get the ball to the first base side when I guy is on third? You've never seen a batter take an outside pitch an poke it to the opposite field? You are unaware that players try to hit a sac fly with a runner on third? You've never seen a guy shorten his swing when he's got two strikes. You are totally unaware of a guy named Ichiro who places the ball where he's most likely to get a hit.

You find it funny that people think that hitters can choose when to hit the ball hard/in the air/on the ground. Congrates, not just anyone can make this type of comment

wamco
07-19-2010, 06:56 PM
[QUOTE=icehawkmike;14195635]Most of you seem to forget that the team has no third baseman next year...encarnacion is gone....trade Bautista and who will play 3rd next year????

Who cares, it is another rebuilding year.

wamco
07-19-2010, 07:00 PM
Had we waited another year with Rios we would have one of the best outfielders in the game

Had we given carpenter that extra 500,000 we would have been a totally different franchise

Had we somehow pulled off a Rios for lincecum trade this franchise would be different

You take risks in baseball.


None of those are comparable to the Bautista conversation. In case anyone still didn't realize, HE IS NOT A FREE AGENT AT THE END OF THE SEASON. Signing him now to a long term contract is an UNNECESSARY risk.


Bautista is a low risk high reward deal.

That hardly ever goes along with paying a veteran platoon player coming off a monster season.

broncosfan_101
07-19-2010, 07:04 PM
Just Enough HR's is a fine stat, but it should be used together with how many times they fly out to the warning track. I don't know if that stat exists, but if one is significantly higher than the other, there's a good chance luck is a prime factor for that player's HR total (good or bad).

And yea, that 19% HR/FB rate will go down, but if he keeps his OBP above .350 and can still slug a .250+ ISO, he'll be a plus player.

Nofear
07-19-2010, 07:24 PM
He's still walking a ton while batting third though. I'd chalk it up to small sample size more than anything else. For what it's worth he's not doing as well batting third, as he's hitting 195-293-448. Maybe the fact that he's not hitting as well batting third has led to a small drop in the walk rate (ie he's not seeing the ball as well)?



The comparison for Bautista has been made to Zobrist a bunch of times. So it's worth pointing out that Zobrist showed similar signs of hitting HR at a high rate (17.5% of his FB went for HR in his breakout year while Bautista did it 19% of the time) and then Zobrist went back to the 5-6% he's been throughout his career. He still is a productive hitter even without the high HR rate, which is something we might expect for Bautista in the future if this is a legit breakout year.

I guess what I'm getting at is that I don't think he's a 30-40 HR hitter going forward, but I could see him pumping out some 20-25 HR seasons. Which isn't to say that's bad, it's just I'd think we should expect a little regression on Bautista like we did with Hill (I'm talking about what we said before the season, not this sub 200 BA guy that showed up).



You mention that he's more likely to hit HR's hitting in the best spot in the lineup, but he's actually had the most struggles batting third as I mentioned earlier. So I'm not sure that I agree with this. It's also worth pointing out that in spite of his struggles, and even when Bautista is showing off the HR power, he's still showing tremendous plate discipline. He's the only guy in the lineup to show both power and on base skills without sacrificing one for the other. Which is what makes him so dangerous.

I've mentioned it before but the Jays are on pace to score about 50 runs less than last year, even though they're hitting significantly more HR. And it's because of their lack of on base skills.



Nothing wrong with this approach, but when they ignore getting on base that becomes a problem. If they come out and say "we like making outs" they'd be fired, which to me is no different than when Murphy says "OBP is useless".

I'm glad you brought up the Murphy part about how he says OBP is useless. I would agree with you that that is a foolish statement as OBP has so many benefit as its clearly better to have guys constantly on base and keep moving them up rather than score a bunch of solo homers. OBP wears out the other team and its clearly easier to score a run from second than it is to score from the batters box.

The reason I say that Bautista is a product of the system has alot to do with the "OBP is useless" comments. It has even more to do with the manager

First off, on no other team is Bautista going to be pencilled into the same spot every single day. Cito photocopies his lineups in bulk and prints off enough copies for a month. Slumps don't matter, he'll let you play through

Secondly, hitting in front of Wells and Lind is a benefit. You say he's struggled, thats probably more like cooled off than struggled. Its a given the pitches get better with protection behind you. He may not be showing it right now but we both know its a true statement

Back to the manager and OBP thing. When you have no fear of striking out alot or getting benched for not moving runners up, thats probably going to help you out. Cito plays 9 players period. Forget about getting into the lineup if you're a bench player on a Cito team. I've read about people getting benched because they can't move up runners or skip the fundementals but with Cito, he doesn't care about that stuff. Go 0 for 70, and Cito will protect you in the media. What I'm saying if you've got a starting spot, a slump or mistake doesn't make you worry about your spot in the lineup.

One of the biggest things, and this is directly affected by OBP, is that Bautista always seems to be up when there's nobody on base. Its a given that he's going to see better pitches without runners on base such as getting a first strike fastball. What I'm saying is pitchers will challenge him with nobody on base but they don't do that with a runner on second and 2 out. Thats a product of the system and it the system that has a team with by far the most HR but the last team to hit a slam. There's no slams because there's never many people on base. Empty bases, means better pitches to hit as the opposing pitcher will want to get ahead in the count and not fear challenging guys.

My original and whole point has been all along that this isn't a career year that can never be obtained again because nothing Bautista has done is any different than what he has done in the past except HR and stats directly effected by the HR surge. The baseline stats are all normal.

Even best case scenario Bautista finshes at .230, 40HR, 95 RBI, 95 runs, 3 SB, .355 OBP a followup season thats .260, 30, 100, 100, 15, .380 would be a better season. Sure the HR's drop 25% but who cares because the average and OBP go up 30 points each. Those raises will help the team score more runs than an extra 10 solo shots would.

Thats my whole point, this isn't such a career year that the statement that he'll never repeat the year is so false. The only thing not getting repeated is HR but raising his average to .260 isn't out of the question at all. Neither is him getting 10 more steals or 20-30 more in OBP. As mentioned, a 30 point increase in average and OBP will net more team runs than 10 hrs will.

Hill last year had stats that ballooned across the board so the statement he won't repeat the season is totally a valid argument. Bautista got so much room to improve in all the other categories, there's no way the statement makes sense.

Dol-Fan
07-19-2010, 07:53 PM
To the poster who suggested something like a 4 yr. $18 mil contract, I really like that idea. Bautista's been great this year, seems like a great guy (I always notice him hand his bat/pads directly to the bat boy when he takes a walk, instead of just throwing his stuff out of the way...seems like a nice gesture lol) but I like his defense in RF more than anything. He's got an accurate cannon out there and takes pretty good routes to balls too. His beard is champion-like as well.

Nofear
07-19-2010, 08:04 PM
To the poster who suggested something like a 4 yr. $18 mil contract, I really like that idea. Bautista's been great this year, seems like a great guy (I always notice him hand his bat/pads directly to the bat boy when he takes a walk, instead of just throwing his stuff out of the way...seems like a nice gesture lol) but I like his defense in RF more than anything. He's got an accurate cannon out there and takes pretty good routes to balls too. His beard is champion-like as well.

You're right, that beard deserves an endorsment deal of some kind.

wamco
07-19-2010, 09:50 PM
so we're all convinced he is now over those 1000 plus ab where his splits were atrocious?

Dol-Fan
07-19-2010, 09:54 PM
You're right, that beard deserves an endorsment deal of some kind.

The Jose Bautista Beard Grooming Kit: We swear it's better than Gustavo Chacin's cologne!

nithanyo
07-20-2010, 01:03 AM
The Jose Bautista Beard Grooming Kit: We swear it's better than Gustavo Chacin's cologne!

:laugh:
Whatever happend to gus?

I had a sample of that cologne. It wasnt that bad. Ive got derek jeters driven and its pretty good too.

nithanyo
07-20-2010, 01:09 AM
Had we waited another year with Rios we would have one of the best outfielders in the gameHad we given carpenter that extra 500,000 we would have been a totally different franchiseHad we somehow pulled off a Rios for lincecum trade this franchise would be differentYou take risks in baseball. None of those are comparable to the Bautista conversation.* In case anyone still didn't realize, HE IS NOT A FREE AGENT AT THE END OF THE SEASON.* Signing him now to a long term contract is an UNNECESSARY risk.Bautista is a low risk high reward deal.That hardly ever goes along with paying a veteran platoon player coming off a monster season.
I brought up all those points cus u were second guessing giving Wells that monster contract.

Im basically saying baseball is a game of risks. You risk and win, and you risk and lose. Bautista is something you risk relativley little but the gains could be amazing.

On top being a solid player both defensivley, with walks and Hr's he seems like a great clubhouse guy and most importnatly loves TO. You dont get too much of that nowadays

Twitchy
07-20-2010, 07:46 AM
Secondly, hitting in front of Wells and Lind is a benefit. You say he's struggled, thats probably more like cooled off than struggled. Its a given the pitches get better with protection behind you. He may not be showing it right now but we both know its a true statement

Protection is an overrated concept. It doesn't have as much an effect as we'd like to believe. Logically I'd agree with you, but it's proven to have a minimal effect. Hell I'm sure most teams would rather face Wells than Bautista this year (especially since Wells has slumped the last few months) so hitting behind Wells isn't giving him the protection you'd like to believe he's getting.


One of the biggest things, and this is directly affected by OBP, is that Bautista always seems to be up when there's nobody on base.

That's because he's hitting third, and the #3 batter comes up the most times with 2 outs and nobody on base.


Its a given that he's going to see better pitches without runners on base such as getting a first strike fastball.

At least from my point of view he's getting a ton of first pitch breaking balls now. He's actually been challenged with the least number of fastballs in his career.


Even best case scenario Bautista finshes at .230, 40HR, 95 RBI, 95 runs, 3 SB, .355 OBP a followup season thats .260, 30, 100, 100, 15, .380 would be a better season. Sure the HR's drop 25% but who cares because the average and OBP go up 30 points each. Those raises will help the team score more runs than an extra 10 solo shots would.

Thats my whole point, this isn't such a career year that the statement that he'll never repeat the year is so false. The only thing not getting repeated is HR but raising his average to .260 isn't out of the question at all. Neither is him getting 10 more steals or 20-30 more in OBP. As mentioned, a 30 point increase in average and OBP will net more team runs than 10 hrs will.

The batting average isn't going to improve. He's an extreme flyball hitter, and as a result he pops up way too many in the infield/outfield. Those are auto outs. The only way he brings up the BA is by hitting more ground balls (as GB are more likely to be base hits than FB), and that's at the cost of his power. He can't hit much more than 240 without losing the power, and the BA gain isn't worth the drop in power.

If the BA doesn't go up, the OBP isn't going up much higher either. He's not a fast runner, or a particularly good base stealer, so the steals aren't going up either. If the steals go up the caught stealings will go up, at which point he's costing the team runs. Which makes little sense on this team, given that everybody can hit for 20 HR. Why risk stealing second when Vernon/Lind/Hill are very likely to hit a double or a HR?

Which brings us to the problem - we all agree he can reproduce 240/350/X, but we don't know what X is. I don't think he keeps up the Albert Pujolsian 19% HR/FB rate, so I figure he's closer to a 20 HR guy than a 30 HR guy. Which keeps him closer to the 470 slugging than the 530 guy he is now. Still a valuable player especially with his versatility, but not the super human monster he is now.


Hill last year had stats that ballooned across the board so the statement he won't repeat the season is totally a valid argument. Bautista got so much room to improve in all the other categories, there's no way the statement makes sense.

I don't know if I agree with that. The only positive for Hill last year was the increase in power. The BA he did before in 06/07, and the OBP was about where it usually is (even tho the walk rate dropped). It's just the HR that went up.

wamco
07-20-2010, 08:14 AM
I brought up all those points cus u were second guessing giving Wells that monster contract.


Again, no I wasn't. At least not in that post. I was saying wells had a year left on his contract so there was no reason to hand out that contract coming off a high year, they could have waited a year.

Im basically saying baseball is a game of risks. You risk and win, and you risk and lose. Bautista is something you risk relativley little but the gains could be amazing.

And again, since he is NOT a free agent, it is an UNNECESSARY risk.

nithanyo
07-20-2010, 11:53 AM
I say keep him because his price is going to be reasonable.

Actually, his price would be at its highest point right now.

If ANYTHING, you simply offer him arbitration at the end of the season and see how next year goes. There is NO need to do a multi-year contract right now. Had we waited until the following year to offer wells a contract rather than buy out his last year, our organization could be completely different.

and this is jose bautista, a guy with lifetime splits that make me puke.

Theres your remark on wells and his contract.

That aside, Bautista is a free agent after next season. You do also realize you can save money by signing a player before there arbitration is up. Its also apparent that bautista plays well when he has a secure role. I guarantee you that if bautista still was under the impression that he was a bench player he would not have such monsterous numbers. He said it himself. Citos neverchange lineup attitude really helped Bautista imo. If you give him a contract he is more secure and should play better.

Bob Loblaw
07-20-2010, 11:56 AM
:laugh:
Whatever happend to gus?
I had a sample of that cologne. It wasnt that bad. Ive got derek jeters driven and its pretty good too.

He is in the Astros Bullpen

wamco
07-20-2010, 03:30 PM
joe carter's hr was "just enough" as well.

You could save a few million by signing him now and hoping he doesnt return to career numbers or could overpay by a ton for what he is going to be worth in the future if you sign him after the season.

T.O. Fan
07-20-2010, 10:04 PM
Theres your remark on wells and his contract.

That aside, Bautista is a free agent after next season. You do also realize you can save money by signing a player before there arbitration is up. Its also apparent that bautista plays well when he has a secure role. I guarantee you that if bautista still was under the impression that he was a bench player he would not have such monsterous numbers. He said it himself. Citos neverchange lineup attitude really helped Bautista imo. If you give him a contract he is more secure and should play better.

I agree with the concept of this statement, however it doesn't necessarily apply to a player having a career year.

I'd rather trade Bautista for top value this year, or take my chances with arbitration and plug him in at 3B for next season with Snider playing everyday in the OF.

After that the Jays can evalute his performance based on two full-time years instead of just the 4 months so far this year.

wamco
07-20-2010, 11:32 PM
pretty freaking reasonable.

the_lazy_man
07-21-2010, 09:31 AM
just keep him and make him play 3rd, we have no good 3rd base prospects.

North Yorker
07-21-2010, 10:59 AM
If we trade Buck and Downs, then that should infuse some serious young talent in the minors- hopefully position players since we basically went all pitching early on in the draft, so I would be ok with keeping Bautista unless we get absoulutely blown away in an offer.

Sign him to a 3 or 4 yr deal and plug him in at 3rd, next to his buddy Yunel. We would have a pretty good IF both offensively and defensively next year. Bautista-Escobar-Hill-Wallace

In 2011 I would be happy with a lineup of

LF-Lewis
SS-Escobar
DH-Lind
CF-Wells
3B-Bautista
2B-Hill
RF-Snider
1B-Wallace
C-Arencibia

That lineup oozes potential, at least power wise, along with speed at the top of the order.

Bjaxn45
07-21-2010, 11:16 AM
Just Enough HR's is a fine stat, but it should be used together with how many times they fly out to the warning track. I don't know if that stat exists, but if one is significantly higher than the other, there's a good chance luck is a prime factor for that player's HR total (good or bad).

And yea, that 19% HR/FB rate will go down, but if he keeps his OBP above .350 and can still slug a .250+ ISO, he'll be a plus player.

I know what you're getting at but how many Hr's have you seen Bautista bearly clear the fence on this year, not many. The guy swings HARD. He's also keeping a good eye at the plate.

Either way I don't care, I see it as a win win. We either trade him for some good prosects or resign him. I don't think anyone would deny right now that he's a solid RF with a plus arm and an adequate 3rd baseman that gets on base and hits the ball hard. Never discount the defense.

Abdul Mutalib
07-21-2010, 11:22 AM
Yea, I think the overall consensus is to keep him unless there is an offer which AA views as a substantial upgrade going forward. Apparently Colorado is "interested" in acquiring Bautista reported on Sportsnet. AA has not disappointed as of yet with any moves so I support his approach to getting better from the farm system first then getting those big name guys.

boilerguy2412
07-21-2010, 12:39 PM
I don't really think AA wants to pay the 9-12 mil he will get if he goes to arbitration. I think he's as good as gone. I don't seem him being able to have another season like this again. I think there is a team in the NL west that is going to over pay for him.

R. Johnson#3
07-21-2010, 12:45 PM
No one is doubting the sell now approach you're refering to.

The cliché part is you throw out the "He'll never repeat this season. Ever" comment because thats been used to death and in this case, theres no abnormal stats that such a statement applies to. How exactly does that statement apply when it one single stat thats out of the norm? So he can't repeat this season in what 1 out of like 10 major hitting categories? Do you not see how that statement doesn't apply in this case? I'm not smarty pants, I'm common sense pants and that statement is grossly incorrect for one single stat. Its also one of the most cliché statements in baseball forums , right next to have a cookie. Nothing like blending in with the masses I guess.

Lastly, no doubt he's got a wild swing, nobody is disputing that. You look at that swing and it screams high HR's and low AVG. You claim he'll never repeat but that swing and the Rogers Centre were made for each other.

Bottom line is everything he's dne except the HR is right around what is expected. To say he'll never repeat the season performance based on one category is kinda small picture don't you think? Like you said in the above bold, there are no stats or facts behind your reason but you choose to make such a broad statement like never repeating that just doesn't apply.

Sure you can use my statement directed to one stat. What's wrong with that? If you had common sense you'd have figured out that's what I was directing it to.

There are no facts in your statement either. You're making assumptions just like me except you seem to think yours are facts. Well, I can make a bold statement to back my statement up. Look up a player named Brady Anderson.

bomber0104
07-21-2010, 03:41 PM
• Some teams feel that the Blue Jays are bluffing by asking for elite young players for MLB home run leader Jose Bautista. Rival executives feel that Bautista's salary will jump to eight figures in his final arbitration year, and the Jays would be reluctant to pay.

That seems ridiculous to me since the guy has only had one good year in the majors

2009mvp
07-21-2010, 04:13 PM
I have no idea exactly what kind of scale the whole arbitration process is weighed on (I can imagine performance/service time are the biggies) but a roughly 8M raise seems kinda high, doesn't it? Either way the idea of a multi-year deal for ~4M that was floated a couple of days ago seems like a long shot to say the least.

statquo
07-21-2010, 04:43 PM
That seems ridiculous to me since the guy has only had one good year in the majors

I was wondering how much he'd fetch in arbitration. $10+ mil for one big year? Teams would be reluctant to trade for him then, because they would know we won't be resigning him for that and he'd be available come offseason.

Sticky situation for AA.

wamco
07-21-2010, 06:03 PM
he won't get over 8m.

just keep him and make him play 3rd, we have no good 3rd base prospects.

But next year, we will still stink soo these are your options...Keep bautista for next year, paying him almost double his salary of this year, then lose him to FA after the season

or

trade him at his highest value for a prospect that could contribute to the team in 2012 and for next year sign a place holder 3bman or promote one from the minors.

StealingSigns
07-21-2010, 06:09 PM
YankeeFan28 just posted this in our forum.


Major league HR leader Jose Bautista drawing serious trade interest. Teams that have inquired include Giants, Tigers, White Sox, Braves. One reason Blue Jays' demands are high: Jose Bautista's salary next season, after arbitration raise, will be in $5M-$6M range. Cheap power.

Guess that sheds some light on what we can expect his salary to be next year.

2009mvp
07-21-2010, 06:48 PM
^^Yeah that makes a lot more sense than the ridonkulous 8 figures reported earlier.

Nofear
07-21-2010, 08:22 PM
Sure you can use my statement directed to one stat. What's wrong with that? If you had common sense you'd have figured out that's what I was directing it to.

There are no facts in your statement either. You're making assumptions just like me except you seem to think yours are facts. Well, I can make a bold statement to back my statement up. Look up a player named Brady Anderson.

Perhaps I'm making assumptions, but I don't go the catch phrase route as my only comment. I at least break it down and put thought into the post, whether its right or wrong, I'm putting in the effort to contribute. Twitchy caught me on a couple things and his points have expand my original thoughts. I always thought that was the point of discussion and forums, to actual discuss things.

However, your original post was "He'll never repeat this season. Ever" Well geez thats insightful isn't it? No actually its cliché and its been done to death. Now you're giving me crap and saying its pretty obvious what you were refering to. Yes its pretty obvious what your refering to but how much insight does it offer to why you would think that? Zero, nothing, notta. I bet the forum would be lively if everyone made such vague statements as you did. The orginal post offers nothing of any value to the discussion, you have to see that don't you?

Sure, I can see how you are or might be pissed at the way I posted my first response and I'm not disputing that at all. But seriously, when you post such a vague, cliché statement that offers nothing to the thread, what exactly do you expect from that contribution? Are you expecting follow up posts expanding on your great wisdom? Yes we've all seen the "he'll never repeat. Ever" statement a 1000 times before, its been done, it was funny for awhile but its lost its luster. Maybe you got a few giggles or something but I'd bet the majority brushed it off for what it was, a waste of everyones time

If thats all you're willing to write or all the insight you can offer, why would you even bother? Be mad all you like but posting nonsense like that, you deserve to have that post raped.

dtmagnet
07-21-2010, 08:53 PM
joe carter's hr was "just enough" as well.

You could save a few million by signing him now and hoping he doesnt return to career numbers or could overpay by a ton for what he is going to be worth in the future if you sign him after the season.

I feel like you're sending mixed signals, so you want to lock up Bautista now or not?

Nofear
07-21-2010, 09:06 PM
Sure you can use my statement directed to one stat. What's wrong with that? If you had common sense you'd have figured out that's what I was directing it to.

There are no facts in your statement either. You're making assumptions just like me except you seem to think yours are facts. Well, I can make a bold statement to back my statement up. Look up a player named Brady Anderson.

You want me to look up Brady Anderson so you can back up your statement? Wow, should I look up stats for his downfall or the Mitchell Report? Oh thats right, he escaped the report just like McGwire did even though both have more links to it than most people actually in it.

Lets see,
1995 he's your average player
1996 he gets huge overnight and hits 50 hrs
1997 he's leads the O's to the playoffs without losing the division lead, leads them in 13 offensive categories all the while having a broken rib but still looking like his viens were on top of the skin on his forearms
1998 his body disinegrates and he basically falls off the earth stats wise.

Hmmm, don't think you've got a leg to stand on if you're claiming a downfall because of stats. This is the typical lifecycle of a guy who spikes up.

If you want to back up your stats, perhaps theres a better example to do it than a guy who clearly violated his own body. Anderson's downfall had nothing to do with stats and everything to do with spiking up. This guys is the poster child of a drug user.

Worst example possible.

JaysFan87
07-21-2010, 10:23 PM
What does last year's American League home run leader have in common with this year's AL home run leader besides a habit of hitting the ball over the fence? They both strike out a lot and walk a lot. They were both born in Santo Domingo. They're both bilingual. And both Carlos Pena and Jose Bautista bounced from organization to organization to organization before finding major league success.

The two sluggers have a lot in common, and while some of their similarities don't have any impact on MLB teams, others do. In fact, we can guess what Bautista might make through arbitration next year by comparing him to Pena.

Like Pena, Bautista is a super two player, meaning he goes to arbitration four times instead of three. After Pena broke out with 46 homers in 2007, he was set to reach arbitration for the third time*. He made $2.8MM in his second arbitration year and was clearly due for a substantial raise after setting a career-high in homers and winning a Silver Slugger in 2007. Ultimately, Pena signed a three-year deal that guaranteed him $6MM for the 2008 season.

Bautista, who has an MLB-leading 26 homers, is headed for his fourth and final arbitration season in 2011. He'll earn $2.4MM this year and, if he keeps hitting like this, will earn substantially more next season. For comparison, Pena's breakout led to a $3.2MM raise. Scott Boras represents Pena, who finished with 20 more homers than Bautista currently has. Even if Bautista continues hitting at an All-Star level, it's hard to imagine him making much more than $6MM next year.

The comparison is imperfect for many reasons, despite the players' similarities. Home run hitters are becoming scarce, Pena's deal was for his third arbitration season and was part of a three-year pact, and Pena had enjoyed more MLB success before his breakout. But it appears that the MLB executives who estimated to Buster Olney that Bautista could earn $10-12MM next year are off the mark. One executive suggested to ***** today that Bautista would have a hard time getting much more than $7-8MM in 2011.

So why does this matter? Ask the Blue Jays, who are no doubt wondering how Bautista would fit into their 2011 budget. Or ask the Braves, Giants, Tigers and White Sox, who have all inquired on him. The difference between $6MM and $10-12MM is a big one.

********************************/2010/07/carlos-pena-and-jose-bautista.html

wamco
07-21-2010, 11:10 PM
I thought anderson was in the mitchell report. I know I heard somewhere he was busted.

Nofear
07-22-2010, 08:09 AM
I thought anderson was in the mitchell report. I know I heard somewhere he was busted.

He was busted everywhere but the mitchell report

DiPasquale7
07-22-2010, 09:16 AM
The 29-year-old Bautista would be a more affordable alternative to Fielder, but he doesn’t fill the need of a left-handed power hitter. The Blue Jay’s power source leads baseball with 26 home runs. He is one of just 14 players in baseball, before the start of play Wednesday with at least 20 home runs. Paul Konerko (21) is another.

Bautista has about $1 million left on his contract this season, and the Blue Jays aren’t expected to hold out for both Hudson and Beckham in a deal.

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/white-sox/post/_/id/1027/sox-consider-deals-for-fielder-bautista

Both?!? Is that serious?! If we could even get just Beckham for Bautista and move him to 3B this team looks really young and promising in the future.. :drool:

LF - Lewis
2B - Hill
DH - Lind
CF - Wells
RF - Snider
1B - Wallace
SS - Escobar
C - Arencebia
3B - Beckham

And imagine we never let Rios go.. Put Wells in LF and have Rios in CF.. Now that'd be a nice core to build around.. It still looks good regardless though..

North Yorker
07-22-2010, 09:27 AM
http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/white-sox/post/_/id/1027/sox-consider-deals-for-fielder-bautista

Both?!? Is that serious?! If we could even get just Beckham for Bautista and move him to 3B this team looks really young and promising in the future.. :drool:

LF - Lewis
2B - Hill
DH - Lind
CF - Wells
RF - Snider
1B - Wallace
SS - Escobar
C - Arencebia
3B - Beckham

And imagine we never let Rios go.. Put Wells in LF and have Rios in CF.. Now that'd be a nice core to build around.. It still looks good regardless though..

But then Bautista prolly doesnt have the season he has if Rios is still here. He's prolly just a utility guy, and would never be thought as of big trading piece with the potential to bring in Beckham.

DiPasquale7
07-22-2010, 09:32 AM
But then Bautista prolly doesnt have the season he has if Rios is still here. He's prolly just a utility guy, and would never be thought as of big trading piece with the potential to bring in Beckham.

probably.. but honestly, he should be getting more time at 3B once snider returns because that's where we need someone.. encarnacion is HORRIBLE!

Nofear
07-22-2010, 09:33 AM
Just a question on Beckham, was he not moved from third because of his D or just moved because of need at 2nd?

North Yorker
07-22-2010, 09:43 AM
Just a question on Beckham, was he not moved from third because of his D or just moved because of need at 2nd?

Im not sure, I just assumed that his bat was more suited to be a 2B as he may never be a consistent 20 HR guy in his career, which most 3B are. Didnt think his D was that bad. But he is having a really down year, much like Yunel, so Im not surprised if AA is targeting him.

MD_Murrelli
07-22-2010, 09:57 AM
As for Beckham having a down year, the guy is HOT now. his average has jumped from .207 to .243 in the past 10 games. He has only been held hitless in one of those games and his OPS has jumped from .552 to .638

Seems like he has turned the corner a bit.

T.O. Fan
07-22-2010, 10:33 AM
If the Jays can get Beckham in a deal for Bautista you do that deal.

fatkev78
07-22-2010, 10:53 AM
http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/white-sox/post/_/id/1027/sox-consider-deals-for-fielder-bautista

Both?!? Is that serious?! If we could even get just Beckham for Bautista and move him to 3B this team looks really young and promising in the future.. :drool:

LF - Lewis
2B - Hill
DH - Lind
CF - Wells
RF - Snider
1B - Wallace
SS - Escobar
C - Arencebia
3B - Beckham

And imagine we never let Rios go.. Put Wells in LF and have Rios in CF.. Now that'd be a nice core to build around.. It still looks good regardless though..

The article is saying that the Jays wouldn't hold out for both like the Brewers would for Fielder.

JaysFan87
07-22-2010, 11:01 AM
probably.. but honestly, he should be getting more time at 3B once snider returns because that's where we need someone.. encarnacion is HORRIBLE!

Defense wise prolly, but his bat is producing a wOBA of .339 which is above average.

DiPasquale7
07-22-2010, 11:03 AM
The article is saying that the Jays wouldn't hold out for both like the Brewers would for Fielder.

I'm aware.. the fact that they even mention holding out for both as an option the jays wouldnt exercise makes me believe one is a definite chance

DiPasquale7
07-22-2010, 11:06 AM
Defense wise prolly, but his bat is producing a wOBA of .339 which is above average.

you can find a batting stat that any player in the league is above average in.. ive seen him play for the past 2 seasons and he's been terrible.

JaysFan87
07-22-2010, 11:14 AM
you can find a batting stat that any player in the league is above average in.. ive seen him play for the past 2 seasons and he's been terrible.

no you cant all his batting stats are very respectable and if he arm wasnt so wild everyone would think he is a good place holder till someone comes around.

At .241/.311/.477 he is a what bautista is doing while getting on base less and with a tad less power.

His 162 game average this year....taking what he has so far and projecting over 162 games have him with totals of 32 HR 89 RBI. ANd troughout his career his OBP has been the exact same as Bautista. SO like I said i would be more than happy to sacrifice defense next with EE at third if the jays were able to get a good return in Bauitista.

DiPasquale7
07-22-2010, 11:37 AM
no you cant all his batting stats are very respectable and if he arm wasnt so wild everyone would think he is a good place holder till someone comes around.

At .241/.311/.477 he is a what bautista is doing while getting on base less and with a tad less power.

His 162 game average this year....taking what he has so far and projecting over 162 games have him with totals of 32 HR 89 RBI. ANd troughout his career his OBP has been the exact same as Bautista. SO like I said i would be more than happy to sacrifice defense next with EE at third if the jays were able to get a good return in Bauitista.

I never said not to trade Bautista.. I just said Encarnacion has 0 place on this team. I didn't realize a .241 was respectable.. We have different standard I guess.. According to the Elias ranking he's the number 24 3B in the league. The Inside Edge rating ranks him 31st amoung 3B. He's terrible defensively and can't hit. He has no place on this team now or going forward...

fatkev78
07-22-2010, 01:34 PM
I'm aware.. the fact that they even mention holding out for both as an option the jays wouldnt exercise makes me believe one is a definite chance

fair enough.

wamco
07-22-2010, 07:47 PM
EE stinks stinks

JaysFan87
07-22-2010, 09:13 PM
I never said not to trade Bautista.. I just said Encarnacion has 0 place on this team. I didn't realize a .241 was respectable.. We have different standard I guess.. According to the Elias ranking he's the number 24 3B in the league. The Inside Edge rating ranks him 31st amoung 3B. He's terrible defensively and can't hit. He has no place on this team now or going forward...

Like i said he is has a wOBA of .339 which is very respectable and prior to last year where he was coming off injury he had wOBA of .351, .350, .357 which is above average. Just to let you know a .357 wOBA would put him at a dead hit with other third basemen like Michael Young which would be 7th among 3b in this league. Bautista's wOBA in each of the past three years was a very average .339, .311, .333. I'd rather take the track record of EE and the less defense next year if the jays can swing a good deal for Bautista this year. THe notion that EE is a bad hitter is just wrong.

2009mvp
07-22-2010, 09:17 PM
EE stinks stinks

Not offensively. He's certainly not great, but if he kept up his current pace he's roughly middle of the pack among third baseman. Defensively he's putrid and I wouldn't hesitate to kick him to the curb once Snider gets back, but he's still a respectable bat.

T.O. Fan
07-22-2010, 10:46 PM
I think EE would do well for some team as a DH, where he doesn't have to worry about throwing across the diamond.

B2theRY
07-23-2010, 12:52 AM
I think EE would do well for some team as a DH, where he doesn't have to worry about throwing across the diamond.

or throw him in the OF or 1B :P

1hardcore
07-23-2010, 02:27 AM
i say keep him! There arent many players who would stay in Toronto. Bautista seems loyal enough!!! Just don't give him an astronomical contract like Vernon Wells!!!


1) Lewis
2)Escobar
3)Wells
4) Bautista
5)Wallace
6)Arencibia
7)Snider
8)Lind
9)Hill :D

StealingSigns
07-23-2010, 03:15 AM
^I love the fact he has come out and said he wants to stay here long term. Breakout season. Estimated 5-6 mill @ arb next year considered to be a bargain considering his power. But...

If the right offer comes you have to take it. Sell high. HR's are at a premium this season in the "Year of the Pitcher".

Good predicament to be in.

wamco
07-23-2010, 03:51 PM
He is an above average bat with horrible defense and he misses a bunch of games. Not dependable, not showing signs of fulfilling his potential.

Could the 3 bautista threads perhaps be merged?

fatkev78
07-23-2010, 05:12 PM
He is an above average bat with horrible defense and he misses a bunch of games. Not dependable, not showing signs of fulfilling his potential.

Could the 3 bautista threads perhaps be merged?

Agreed. I'm not a forum etiquette nazi, but it is a pain looking at 3 different threads when you're trying to discuss/find out the lastest on the same player.