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poodski
07-02-2010, 12:17 PM
The accolades being handed out to baseballís current rookie class have been impressive ó the best rookie class ever, the Year of the Rookie, etc. For prospect mavens and scouts alike, the successes of Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward and Carlos Santana are validations that baseballís future can be predicted to some degree. However, alongside that touted triumvirate of rookies are Tyler Colvin and Brennan Boesch, two smooth-swinging lefties currently batting a combined .310/.358/.586 in 387 plate appearances. Neither was ever a top 100 prospect. Colvin was a first-round pick that many (including myself) criticized; Boesch was a guy I undershot on the day of his debut.

Itís easy to say that these are two guys that we missed, but Iím also hoping we can learn something from it. What traits do they have, or did they show in the minors, that we can look for the next time around? After all, both are former highly regarded college guys, have some swing-and-miss in their pretty left-handed swings, and have body types that intrigue scouts. You trade a little Colvin speed for some more Boesch power, but we have some undeniable similarities as a jumping off point.

So my first question was this: is this player, the left-handed slugger pegged as a platoon player, something we have underrated before? My findings were very telling. I started with this query in the Baseball-Reference Play Index: what left-handed hitters not ranked in a Baseball America Top 100 have had a .200 ISO in their first chance at regular playing time (150 plate appearances)? Here are the findings from 1995-2009:

You can read the rest here (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/colvin-and-boesch-going-forward/)

Kirel
07-02-2010, 12:26 PM
You know, the part of hte article you didn't quote is extremely negative on Colvin's future potential.

With lines like

But with the 1.5 dozen players listed above, what they did as rookies is equally interesting to what they did the rest of their careers: .254/.335/.444. This is a 10% drop-off in OPS, and a 20% drop-off in ISO. Look at the list: these are not players that blossomed into stars after good rookie campaigns

and



Boesch and Tyler Colvin have earned regular jobs for 2011, but those should come with tempered expectations. Their numbers are as good as they’re going to be.

poodski
07-02-2010, 12:30 PM
You know, the part of hte article you didn't quote is extremely negative on Colvin's future potential.

With lines like


and

Yeah I just put the first few paragraphs since it was kinda long.

I really hope he doesnt turn into a Chris Davis overnight though.

Kirel
07-02-2010, 12:36 PM
Yeah I just put the first few paragraphs since it was kinda long.

I really hope he doesnt turn into a Chris Davis overnight though.
I dunno whats going to happen, but at this point I do not buy into the "Oh, yeah, Colvin was really a stud OF he just didn't feel like playing till he got to hte majors" line people are selling.

I do not expect great things. I'm basically just hoping he cna be useful for another year or so and then can be sold off to another team before things fall apart.

zambo4president
07-02-2010, 12:44 PM
Well...we could sell him while his values high

Kirel
07-02-2010, 12:48 PM
Well...we could sell him while his values high
Well, most teams are brighter than sports writers. I doubt any team believes he's as good as fans seem to right now.

I really doubt he has much value.

windycityD
07-02-2010, 12:50 PM
David Kelton, Corey Patterson, Jason DuBois, & Felix Pie= a decade of Cubs OF specs, all touted to some degree, not working out.

Colvin was basically considered a bad signing from day one by almost everyone, including here. He doesn't have to be, nor will he likely be, Matt Kemp et al. He just needs to not be anywhere near any of those four listed above. Time will tell where he is and is not. The point is, he deserves a real shot.

Kirel
07-02-2010, 12:55 PM
David Kelton, Corey Patterson, Jason DuBois, & Felix Pie= a decade of Cubs OF specs, all touted to some degree, not working out.

Colvin was basically considered a bad signing from day one by almost everyone, including here. He doesn't have to be, nor will he likely be, Matt Kemp et al. He just needs to not be anywhere near any of those four listed above. Time will tell where he is and is not. The point is, he deserves a real shot.
The four of htem are entirely irrelevent. Past failure does not excuse mediocrity. You are just lowering your standards.

He does deserve a shot, but he does not deserve high expectatoins, not yet.

And you are aware that citing 4 failed prospects is almost laughable? Pick a team, you'll find far more faliures than successes. Success comes in many ways and while hte Cubs were easily one of the worst in the maojrs(ahead of only the White Sox), they did produce some talent.

windycityD
07-02-2010, 01:10 PM
The four of htem are entirely irrelevent. Past failure does not excuse mediocrity. You are just lowering your standards.

He does deserve a shot, but he does not deserve high expectatoins, not yet.

And you are aware that citing 4 failed prospects is almost laughable? Pick a team, you'll find far more faliures than successes. Success comes in many ways and while hte Cubs were easily one of the worst in the maojrs(ahead of only the White Sox), they did produce some talent.

We are talking about our team/ organization, right? What's more than sorta laughable is your constant, repetitive quest to evaluate & gauge others in relation to where ours will or will not be, all in your opinion. Everyone has busts, pretty much a given. But, we're talking about the Cubs here and I'm citing 4 examples of busts, over ten years.

I have no grand, personal expectations for Colvin. I also don't fully subscribe to this notion that pre-determined/ destined gold will always turn out that way (see Patterson). Colvin will struggle. He will be exposed in the strike zone insde. He will K at a yes, troublesome rate. It's what he does (or does not do) when the struggles come. Does he improve his OBP? Can he learn to hit the other way? Can he become a better defender? Time and real game experience will tell. I guess it's kinda nice to be able to say that after 10 years of consistent blah.

Kirel
07-02-2010, 01:23 PM
We are talking about our team/ organization, right? What's more than sorta laughable is your constant, repetitive quest to evaluate & gauge others in relation to where ours will or will not be, all in your opinion. Everyone has busts, pretty much a given. But, we're talking about the Cubs here and I'm citing 4 examples of busts, over ten years.

I have no grand, personal expectations for Colvin. I also don't fully subscribe to this notion that pre-determined/ destined gold will always turn out that way (see Patterson). Colvin will struggle. He will be exposed in the strike zone insde. He will K at a yes, troublesome rate. It's what he does (or does not do) when the struggles come. Does he improve his OBP? Can he learn to hit the other way? Can he become a better defender? Time and real game experience will tell. I guess it's kinda nice to be able to say that after 10 years of consistent blah.
Well, honestly, all of htose guys had the same questoins.

That you want to apply "bust" to guys in the past without regard for what their potental was then but apply potential to Colvin further distances you from the point. You just aren't evaluating other prospects well at all.

In the last 5 years alone Soto, Theriot, Fontenot, Murton, and Castro at least have done what Colvin has to this point, and thats just position players that are occuring to me off hand, yet you bring up the faliures instead of the successes like it means something. It's not nice, it's common. It hasn't been 10 years of consistent blah, it's been 10 years of Colvins that you've retconned into blah.

poodski
07-02-2010, 01:27 PM
David Kelton, Corey Patterson, Jason DuBois, & Felix Pie= a decade of Cubs OF specs, all touted to some degree, not working out.

Colvin was basically considered a bad signing from day one by almost everyone, including here. He doesn't have to be, nor will he likely be, Matt Kemp et al. He just needs to not be anywhere near any of those four listed above. Time will tell where he is and is not. The point is, he deserves a real shot.

Ummm CPatt is worth almost as much as Colvin this year with very similar ABs.

Kirel
07-02-2010, 01:59 PM
Ummm CPatt is worth almost as much as Colvin this year with very similar ABs.
Not to mention his half season in 2003 was on par with Colvin's flashes of success.

Pie had a pretty good 150 PAs for the Orioles last year too didn't he?

poodski
07-02-2010, 02:07 PM
Not to mention his half season in 2003 was on par with Colvin's flashes of success.

Pie had a pretty good 150 PAs for the Orioles last year too didn't he?

Yeah, but then got hurt. I think they are all pretty much the same player at the bat, with CPatt having by far the best glove of the three.

I think there is a lot of similarities between all three to be honest. I will surprised though if any of them even end up having the career Patterson has had, which isn't saying a lot.

10 WAR over a 1000 games isn't all that terrible though.

Mell413
07-02-2010, 02:27 PM
I don't have any real expectations for him. I'm okay with giving him his chance for the rest of this season to see what we have. I would still rather put him in center since I think has bat fits better there. I'm still worried about his K and walk rates. I guess you have to keep in mind that he's full recovered from TJ and is now able to lift weights. I don't expect great things, but I think you have to take those things into account as well.

Kirel
07-02-2010, 02:48 PM
I don't have any real expectations for him. I'm okay with giving him his chance for the rest of this season to see what we have. I would still rather put him in center since I think has bat fits better there. I'm still worried about his K and walk rates. I guess you have to keep in mind that he's full recovered from TJ and is now able to lift weights. I don't expect great things, but I think you have to take those things into account as well.
Honestly, I expect most players to lift weights. That Colvin can is highly irrelevent to me.

Rndy
07-02-2010, 04:06 PM
I'll Always love me some Corey Patterson. It's such a shame 4.9 WAR in 2004.

windycityD
07-02-2010, 04:40 PM
I'll Always love me some Corey Patterson. It's such a shame 4.9 WAR in 2004.

Where statistics stop in this game and bad habits reign, I give you Corey Patterson. His open swing was eventually as garbage as his approach at the plate. And that was never addressed in the minors. The blame game with him, and with Pie to a big degree, is a two way street.

Rndy
07-02-2010, 05:33 PM
Where statistics stop in this game and bad habits reign, I give you Corey Patterson. His open swing was eventually as garbage as his approach at the plate. And that was never addressed in the minors. The blame game with him, and with Pie to a big degree, is a two way street.

I don't see what him and Pie have to do with each other. Patterson never was really great in the minors. He struggled and kept getting called up. If it wasn't for our terrible managing Pie's options he would still be with us.

Tom Emanski
07-02-2010, 07:01 PM
I am hoping that Colvin keeps working and can continue to get better. His numbers this year are probably a mirage, but who knows, maybe the light really did come on for him?

windycityD
07-02-2010, 07:37 PM
I don't see what him and Pie have to do with each other. Patterson never was really great in the minors. He struggled and kept getting called up. If it wasn't for our terrible managing Pie's options he would still be with us.

Their swings and their plate discipline were near equal, open and poor. They were never going to walk at a decent clip to help utilize their alleged 5th tool, which was speed. They both went through the minors and were allowed to continue these bad habits. Ironically, both were at the majors playing under two managers who were known for their hitting in their playing days. There's the connection.

EJS2590
07-03-2010, 06:09 PM
I understand that all of you here back up all of your opinions with being 'realistic' but EVERY single time a cubs player does anything decent worth noting all you every say is 'sell him while the value is there' or 'he will eventually fall back to earth'. You need to realize this is a forum for FANS not GM's and owners. Be a fan and actually support the players instead of researching until you find something that will back up your arguement to why he isnt any good. If all you're gonna do is ***** and moan about the stock of our young players than go get a college degree and get into the front office of the cubs. I sit here and read this forum all day and listen to all of you talk **** about the whole team top to bottom. Colvin is a nice young player, NO ONE knows how he will perform the rest of this year or next year, so stop being ignorant and predicting when he will 'level off'. I swear it seems like 95% of everyone that participates in this forum WANTS the cubs to fail and see the whole team collapse. So congrats on being ****** fans. :facepalm:

1908_Cubs
07-03-2010, 06:34 PM
I understand that all of you here back up all of your opinions with being 'realistic' but EVERY single time a cubs player does anything decent worth noting all you every say is 'sell him while the value is there' or 'he will eventually fall back to earth'. You need to realize this is a forum for FANS not GM's and owners. Be a fan and actually support the players instead of researching until you find something that will back up your arguement to why he isnt any good. If all you're gonna do is ***** and moan about the stock of our young players than go get a college degree and get into the front office of the cubs. I sit here and read this forum all day and listen to all of you talk **** about the whole team top to bottom. Colvin is a nice young player, NO ONE knows how he will perform the rest of this year or next year, so stop being ignorant and predicting when he will 'level off'. I swear it seems like 95% of everyone that participates in this forum WANTS the cubs to fail and see the whole team collapse. So congrats on being ****** fans. :facepalm:

Your sig says everything about this post. This is an absolute, epic fail on your part.

No one here is being a GM. As a fan we want the Chicago Cubs to be the best possible. That means selling high on players over performing to get better value, that means understanding when Player X is having too good of a season to sustain, that means a lot of things.

While we don't "know" what Colvin will do, it's easy to speculate. And speculate fairly accurately looking at statistics. As fans we like to talk about that. Is Colvin real? Sounds like a good topic to me. You don't like reading it? Don't ****ing post in that thread and don't read it. Simple as that. Instead you whine and cry because, god forbid, a Cub fan actually question something. We're not blind Cub fans who wear the rose colored shades. Apparently you do. Sucks for you, being intelligent and questioning is a better way to handle this situation. No one here is "not supporting" the Cubs. I haven't read a single "Tyler Colvin can suck my dick!" posts. They're just giving their opinion on what kind of a player he'll be.

Stop your crying.

Str1fe5
07-03-2010, 06:41 PM
Honestly, I expect most players to lift weights. That Colvin can is highly irrelevent to me.

Well its not highly irrelevant when evaluating his minor league career, because of his inability to try bulk up in the off season etc. The guy is finally healthy and far enough removed from the TJ surgery that he can reap the benefits of what all other healthy players can from lifting weights, something he was unable to do 18 months ago.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not super high on Colvin myself, I'm just saying that while abstractly speaking, a player lifting weights is irrelevant, Tyler Colvin lifting weights in context is not.

Stackshot
07-03-2010, 07:14 PM
Your sig says everything about this post. This is an absolute, epic fail on your part.

No one here is being a GM. As a fan we want the Chicago Cubs to be the best possible. That means selling high on players over performing to get better value, that means understanding when Player X is having too good of a season to sustain, that means a lot of things.

While we don't "know" what Colvin will do, it's easy to speculate. And speculate fairly accurately looking at statistics. As fans we like to talk about that. Is Colvin real? Sounds like a good topic to me. You don't like reading it? Don't ****ing post in that thread and don't read it. Simple as that. Instead you whine and cry because, god forbid, a Cub fan actually question something. We're not blind Cub fans who wear the rose colored shades. Apparently you do. Sucks for you, being intelligent and questioning is a better way to handle this situation. No one here is "not supporting" the Cubs. I haven't read a single "Tyler Colvin can suck my dick!" posts. They're just giving their opinion on what kind of a player he'll be.

Stop your crying.

Exactamundo. :cool:

No one is attacking Colvin on any level, but player's who strike-out as much as him without taking a substantial amount of walks have a massive amount of struggles with consistency in the Majors.

No one's trying to pessimistic or anything with him, the posts I've read which cast doubt on his future are based in reasonable and well-thought-out ideas. Not a soul on here as said he's going to fail with certainty, but there is a solid base of worry with him in potential corner outfield starting role.

WOwolfOL
07-04-2010, 02:50 PM
I just hope he doesn't need a platoon

cubsbullsbears2
07-05-2010, 12:00 PM
Kirel i think you need to begin eating your words about colvin...slugging .568 with 12 homers in 162 ABs...a home run every 13.5 at bats--which ties paul konerko for the MLB lead. He has played good defense and has been very productive. I understand you think he will slow down he just simply hasnt all that much...his average has dipped a little lately but he is still at .278. after his BABIP dropped back down to .324. yes his ground ball rate is pretty high but he is finding the holes in the infield. i just dont see him slipping past .265 and with his pop and defense that is still extremely valuable--especially at his salary

thornga2
07-05-2010, 12:20 PM
While I agree that their are concerns about Colvin being able to produce consistently, the idea of "selling high" on him is a little bit funny to me. I think there are some truly intelligent Cubs fans on this forum, which is why I enjoy posting here. But I always have to laugh when people suggest selling high on a guy, and quote stats to back up their point. Like, "Sell high on Colvin, because with his K and BB rates, he can't keep up this kind of production." This statement about his production may very well be true. However, his K and BB rates are not some secret that we are keeping on this forum. Everybody has the same concerns about Tyler that we on this forum have.

If Hendry tried to trade Colvin, he would say something like "Well he right up at the top of the league in HR%, and does that while hitting a solid average. Plus, he can play all three outfield spots. He's only 24."

And the other GM would say, "He's had a very nice season, but with his K and BB rights we have our doubts about him being able to sustain this kind of success."

Selling high works in some cases, but let's not talk about Colvin like other people around the league wouldn't have the same concerns that we do about Tyler.

Kirel
07-05-2010, 05:16 PM
Kirel i think you need to begin eating your words about colvin...slugging .568 with 12 homers in 162 ABs...a home run every 13.5 at bats--which ties paul konerko for the MLB lead. He has played good defense and has been very productive. I understand you think he will slow down he just simply hasnt all that much...his average has dipped a little lately but he is still at .278. after his BABIP dropped back down to .324. yes his ground ball rate is pretty high but he is finding the holes in the infield. i just dont see him slipping past .265 and with his pop and defense that is still extremely valuable--especially at his salary
Why should I be eating my words? Becuase COlvin is turning into the lousy hitter I expected?

Fluky homerun rates are nice, but they aren't going to last. I doubt he can consistently hit 25 HR/600 PA, let alone 48.

He's useful, not "extremely valuable." Especially in a corner spot.

redwhitenblue
07-05-2010, 05:50 PM
Mmm...yummy .320 OBP and dropping.

Kirel
07-05-2010, 06:00 PM
Mmm...yummy .320 OBP and dropping.
Interesting fact:

Tyler Colvin walked 6 times and struck out 12 times in 51 PAs in april. Thats a 17.6 BB% and a 23.5 K%.

Since he's walked 5 times and struck out 36 in 123 PA. A 4.1 BB% and a 26 K%.

His IsoP is also slowly falling. He's rapidly regressing to the mean as his play time goes up.

ReJo
07-05-2010, 06:05 PM
I like his pop. He's got a quick bat and the ball jumps off of his bat like a rocket. But like others have said he needs to learn how to take a walk every once in a while and make the proper adjustments when the pitchers figure him out. I still like the Fukudome, Byrd and Soriano outfield the best. I think a 4 man rotation could work next year if Tyler continues to hit

northsider
07-05-2010, 06:48 PM
He def. has a different approach at the plate which looks to be a good thing so far.

Brad IBCB
07-06-2010, 03:03 AM
I think it's too early to really tell what he can do.