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JuggernautJ
06-13-2010, 07:37 PM
According to Paul Sullivan of The Chicago Tribune.





[Tyler Colvin is back in the lineup tonight against Gavin Floyd, taking the place of Kosuke Fukudome, and it looks like he's there to stay.

"He deserves an opportunity," manager Lou Piniella said. "We brought him along, he's waited his time."

Of course, Piniella has said that numerous times this season, only to sit Colvin again in a day or two. But Piniella told AOL Fanhouse after Saturday's game that he told Colvin he would play "every day."

Piniella said Sunday he hadn't spoken to Colvin, though AOL Fanhouse reporter John Hickey said he quoted Piniella accurately.

"What I said basically was that we're going to play him more, and we are," Piniella said.

What's the difference this time?

"Look, put it this way, he's going to play a lot more than he has been," he said. "We've been patient, you know? I said all along that when the time was right we were going to make this type of move, and the time is getting real right."

So right field is Colvin's now?

"Let's just decipher this," he said. "We want to see this kid in the lineup more."

Steve Stone was not at the ballpark for comment, though he was the recipient of Piniella's wrath on Friday's for suggesting Colvin needs to play more. ]


If this is true that would mean that the cubs have a 12 million a year bench player In Fukudome, isn't that great. so who has a thought on this. Do you think Colvin should be the starter.

Matchstckman
06-13-2010, 07:45 PM
Get ready for a lot of Theriot leading off.

toovey107
06-13-2010, 07:47 PM
Get ready for a lot of Theriot leading off.
Which is the worst ****ing scenario.

Goddamnit I hate Lou

ggross
06-13-2010, 07:49 PM
According to Paul Sullivan of The Chicago Tribune.





[Tyler Colvin is back in the lineup tonight against Gavin Floyd, taking the place of Kosuke Fukudome, and it looks like he's there to stay.

"He deserves an opportunity," manager Lou Piniella said. "We brought him along, he's waited his time."

Of course, Piniella has said that numerous times this season, only to sit Colvin again in a day or two. But Piniella told AOL Fanhouse after Saturday's game that he told Colvin he would play "every day."

Piniella said Sunday he hadn't spoken to Colvin, though AOL Fanhouse reporter John Hickey said he quoted Piniella accurately.

"What I said basically was that we're going to play him more, and we are," Piniella said.

What's the difference this time?

"Look, put it this way, he's going to play a lot more than he has been," he said. "We've been patient, you know? I said all along that when the time was right we were going to make this type of move, and the time is getting real right."

So right field is Colvin's now?

"Let's just decipher this," he said. "We want to see this kid in the lineup more."

Steve Stone was not at the ballpark for comment, though he was the recipient of Piniella's wrath on Friday's for suggesting Colvin needs to play more. ]


If this is true that would mean that the cubs have a 12 million a year bench player In Fukudome, isn't that great. so who has a thought on this. Do you think Colvin should be the starter.

About time.

poodski
06-13-2010, 07:50 PM
Get ready for a lot of Theriot leading off.

Its gonna be a rough time for a while.

Doogolas
06-13-2010, 08:08 PM
Cool. I can dig it. Kosuke's been very bad lately.

CUBDOM4life
06-13-2010, 08:10 PM
God I hate Lou and Theriot so damn much.

gocubs2118
06-13-2010, 08:11 PM
I would like this much more if it didn't mean Theriot leading off.

its still early
06-13-2010, 08:12 PM
Its gonna be a rough time for a while.

edit: its been a rough time for a while.

RedHeadsRule
06-13-2010, 08:15 PM
Call the Nats about Fuku.

And I like this move. We need to see what he can do.

turnaround3
06-13-2010, 08:28 PM
Call the Nats about Fuku.

Trade him to Washington for one of Strasburg's balls and see if it can be surgically inserted into Randy Wells. Let Aramis do it he's experienced down there.

Kirel
06-13-2010, 08:29 PM
My guess:

By July 15th Colvins OPS is under .750 and people will be calling for him to be traded.

Guny Highway
06-13-2010, 09:14 PM
Colvin has Ryan Braun potential guys, we will see if his game realizes his potential. I agree about Theriot leading off, not a fan of it either.

toovey107
06-13-2010, 09:15 PM
Colvin has Ryan Braun potential guys, we will see if his game realizes his potential. I agree about Theriot leading off, not a fan of it either.
Hold on , WHAT? Ryan Braun potential , c'mon man.

Doogolas
06-13-2010, 09:16 PM
Colvin has Ryan Braun potential guys, we will see if his game realizes his potential. I agree about Theriot leading off, not a fan of it either.

:laugh: You're crazy. Braun strikes out literally half as often, in fact a little better than half as often as Colvin does. Colvin doesn't have near Braun potential as things stand now.

Grifter
06-13-2010, 09:17 PM
Colvin has Ryan Braun potential guys, we will see if his game realizes his potential.
Because you've seen Colvin, and you know what he can do?

Guny Highway
06-13-2010, 09:17 PM
Never said he will be the player Braun is. But he has the tools. Like I said, lets see if he can make the transition to playing full time.

Doogolas
06-13-2010, 09:18 PM
Never said he will be the player Braun is. But he has the tools. Like I said, lets see if he can make the transition to playing full time.

He does not have the tools. He doesn't make NEARLY enough contact. Not even close. If he can cut his walks in half, I guess he maybe has that kind of potential. But even then I'm highly, highly doubting it.

Guny Highway
06-13-2010, 09:18 PM
:laugh: You're crazy. Braun strikes out literally half as often, in fact a little better than half as often as Colvin does. Colvin doesn't have near Braun potential as things stand now.

Braun is an established veteran. Colvin is still a prospect. Read my entire post. I said time will tell if he pans out.

Dmac
06-13-2010, 09:19 PM
Colvin has Ryan Braun potential guys, we will see if his game realizes his potential. I agree about Theriot leading off, not a fan of it either.

Do you mean getting women at bars and being a douche? Maybe he has that potential, but you surely can't mean baseball ability.

Guny Highway
06-13-2010, 09:20 PM
He does not have the tools. He doesn't make NEARLY enough contact. Not even close. If he can cut his walks in half, I guess he maybe has that kind of potential. But even then I'm highly, highly doubting it.



Have you followed Colvin? The kid has potential.

toovey107
06-13-2010, 09:21 PM
Braun is an established veteran. Colvin is still a prospect. Read my entire post. I said time will tell if he pans out.
But it's not even a legitimate comparison, look at some numbers before you outlandishly throw all star players out for comparisons.

Like me saying that Gorzelanny has Tom Glavine potential. Just ridiculous.

Edit : let me pick a more suitable comparison with your outlook , Gorzelanny = the next Randy Johnson. book it.

Doogolas
06-13-2010, 09:21 PM
Braun is an established veteran. Colvin is still a prospect. Read my entire post. I said time will tell if he pans out.

No, you said:


Colvin has Ryan Braun potential guys, we will see if his game realizes his potential. I agree about Theriot leading off, not a fan of it either.

Braun didn't K nearly at the rate Colvin did in the minors. And has had only one really major high K season in his professional career. Colvin also has never walked as well as he has to this point. His potential is not Braunesque unless he finds a way to MASSIVELY cut down on his K's.

Also, unlike Braun Colvin actually knows what defense is. They are very, very, VERY different players.

Guny Highway
06-13-2010, 09:27 PM
But it's not even a legitimate comparison, look at some numbers before you outlandishly throw all star players out for comparisons.

Like me saying that Gorzelanny has Tom Glavine potential. Just ridiculous.



You guys are something else. I am a fan. I usually hang out at another football forum. I love the Cubs been following them for 30 years. I come here to talk baseball and all you guys do is flame any auspice of an indepedent thought. I watched Colvin in High School, I followed him in the minors and there is a reson why he is with the squad today. He is a rookie, and has some things to learn but he has at times been a clutch hitter, he has good power to all fields and has a better than average glove. Is he Braun? NO, I never said he was. But in some ways he reminds me of Ryan.

As a fellow fan that knows this team, perhaps you guys should embrace somone that shares the same passion rather than flame an idea you don't agree with and don't like. I swear it sounds as though some of you want the kid to fail.

Dmac
06-13-2010, 09:28 PM
But it's not even a legitimate comparison, look at some numbers before you outlandishly throw all star players out for comparisons.

Like me saying that Gorzelanny has Tom Glavine potential. Just ridiculous.

Edit : let me pick a more suitable comparison with your outlook , Gorzelanny = the next Randy Johnson. book it.

Randy Wells= Greg Maddux 2.0

Doogolas
06-13-2010, 09:30 PM
You guys are something else. I am a fan. I usually hang out at another football forum. I love the Cubs been following them for 30 years. I come here to talk baseball and all you guys do is flame any auspice of an indepedent thought. I watched Colvin in High School, I followed him in the minors and there is a reson why he is with the squad today. He is a rookie, and has some things to learn but he has at times been a clutch hitter, he has good power to all fields and has a better than average glove. Is he Braun? NO, I never said he was. But in some ways he reminds me of Ryan.

As a fellow fan that knows this team, perhaps you guys should embrace somone that shares the same passion rather than flame an idea you don't agree with and don't like. I swear it sounds as though some of you want the kid to fail.

It's not an independent thought. It's a MASSIVELY jumping the gun one. What way does he remind you of Braun? Please tell me? Because they are COMPLETELY different. I mean, ****, Braun was a hugely hyped guy. Colvin wasn't. Braun is a righty. Colvin is a lefty. Braun doesn't strike out all the time. Colvin does. Braun has always walked at least decently. Colvin has never walked this well before. Colvin is a great fielder and Braun is an awful one. What about them is similar?

They're both white. I'll give you that. But other than that...

And want him to fail? Oh hell no. I would KILL for him to turn into Braun. But as long as he's K-ing at the rate he is that will never, ever happen.

Guny Highway
06-13-2010, 09:30 PM
Randy Wells= Greg Maddux 2.0



No...Madog had more tenacity and an obession for details. Maddux had one of the best baseball minds ever. Not overpowering physically, the guy could play Jedi Mind tricks with the hitters mentally.

toovey107
06-13-2010, 09:33 PM
You guys are something else. I am a fan. I usually hang out at another football forum. I love the Cubs been following them for 30 years. I come here to talk baseball and all you guys do is flame any auspice of an indepedent thought. I watched Colvin in High School, I followed him in the minors and there is a reson why he is with the squad today. He is a rookie, and has some things to learn but he has at times been a clutch hitter, he has good power to all fields and has a better than average glove. Is he Braun? NO, I never said he was. But in some ways he reminds me of Ryan.

As a fellow fan that knows this team, perhaps you guys should embrace somone that shares the same passion rather than flame an idea you don't agree with and don't like. I swear it sounds as though some of you want the kid to fail.
There's a difference from wanting someone to fail and actually seeing the writing on the wall and making realistic comparisons and expectations.

It's fine liking a player, having a different point of view about him than someone else .. but you are pulling a comparison out of thin air. In no way is he like Braun.

And people are going to call you out on things like that , that's all.

Doogolas
06-13-2010, 09:33 PM
No...Madog had more tenacity and an obession for details. Maddux had one of the best baseball minds ever. Not overpowering physically, the guy could play Jedi Mind tricks with the hitters mentally.

He also had way better stuff and control.

Anyways, I'm not the one making ******** comparisons. I'm just saying your comparison is insane. I want you to explain it. And until you do I'm going to tell you it's nuts.

Matchstckman
06-13-2010, 09:33 PM
No...Madog had more tenacity and an obession for details. Maddux had one of the best baseball minds ever. Not overpowering physically, the guy could play Jedi Mind tricks with the hitters mentally.

Also he kind of looks like Matthew Broderick

toovey107
06-13-2010, 09:36 PM
Also he kind of looks like Matthew Broderick
I love your random, but well timed insight.

Bravo buddy, I love it.

Dmac
06-13-2010, 09:37 PM
No...Madog had more tenacity and an obession for details. Maddux had one of the best baseball minds ever. Not overpowering physically, the guy could play Jedi Mind tricks with the hitters mentally.

:laugh2:

It was sarcasm. I figured you could have gotten that if you would have read the post I quoted. But it wasn't much different then your comparison really.

Guny Highway
06-13-2010, 09:40 PM
He also had way better stuff and control.

Anyways, I'm not the one making ******** comparisons. I'm just saying your comparison is insane. I want you to explain it. And until you do I'm going to tell you it's nuts.

Colvin has Braun's power. Yes he needs to work on his discipline at the plate, and yes he is a Southpaw. Nothing to call out as I was thinking out loud. Atheltic ability and baseball prowess are two different thing, he has Brauns quick hands. Better in the field, Braun is more disciplined at the plate.

What current outfielder would you compare Colvin to?

And none of us has seen enough of Tyler to predict his level of future success. I just have a hunch about him. I think at this point he is a better option than El Foldo Koske.

Kirel
06-13-2010, 09:42 PM
Colvin has Braun's power. Yes he needs to work on his discipline at the plate, and yes he is a Southpaw. Nothing to call out as I was thinking out loud. Atheltic ability and baseball prowess are two different thing, he has Brauns quick hands. Better in the field, Braun is more disciplined at the plate.

What current outfielder would you compare Colvin to?

And none of us has seen enough of Tyler to predict his level of future success. I just have a hunch about him. I think at this point he is a better option than El Foldo Koske.
At best? Marlon Byrd.

More likely? Reed Johnson.

toovey107
06-13-2010, 09:42 PM
Jacque Jones comes to mind.

Guny Highway
06-13-2010, 09:42 PM
:laugh2:

It was sarcasm. I figured you could have gotten that if you would have read the post I quoted. But it wasn't much different then your comparison really.



I got the sarcasm bit. Maddux was one of my favorite Cubs. I was pissed when we didn't re-sign him following his Cy Young campaign.

Kirel
06-13-2010, 09:44 PM
Jacque Jones comes to mind.
Walking a bit much for that.

Chris Young maybe? Though I"m not convinced he has near that much power.

Guny Highway
06-13-2010, 09:45 PM
Actually Colvin also reminds me a lot of Doug Dascenzo...

Kirel
06-13-2010, 09:47 PM
Actually Colvin also reminds me a lot of Doug Dascenzo...
Now there is a ringing endorsement....

How do you get from "Ryan Bruan" to "Doug Dascenzo"?

toovey107
06-13-2010, 09:48 PM
Walking a bit much for that.

Chris Young maybe? Though I"m not convinced he has near that much power.
Yeah I was thinking a left handed bat with similar type power maybe, didn't give it much thought.

Guny Highway
06-13-2010, 09:49 PM
Now there is a ringing endorsement....

How do you get from "Ryan Bruan" to "Doug Dascenzo"?



I was kidding. Just wondering how many of you remember Dascenzo asside from the Rob Dibble incident.

chicagofan71
06-13-2010, 09:49 PM
I like this. IMO the most we can expect from colvin is an 870 OPS with like a 340 OBP and a 530 SLG.

Kirel
06-13-2010, 09:50 PM
Yeah I was thinking a left handed bat with similar type power maybe, didn't give it much thought.
Yeah, I'm still struggling to see how Colvin OPS's over .800 long term.

Kirel
06-13-2010, 09:51 PM
I was kidding. Just wondering how many of you remember Dascenzo asside from the Rob Dibble incident.
Heh, either way, I'd guess Colvin is far more likely to be one of the least useful players in cubs history than to be anything near Braun.

I really doubt he is of starting quality. A month of full time play and being scouted and he'll look absolutly terrible.

Doogolas
06-13-2010, 09:51 PM
Yeah, I'm still struggling to see how Colvin OPS's over .800 long term.

Easy, cut down his K's to 20%. That's just probably not going to happen.

Guny Highway
06-13-2010, 09:52 PM
Okay. Let me ask you guys this...What is Colvin's single biggest flaw that prevents him from being an offensive force on a consistent basis?

Doogolas
06-13-2010, 09:53 PM
Okay. Let me ask you guys this...What is Colvin's single biggest flaw that prevents him from being an offensive force on a consistent basis?

His K-rate is over 30%.

toovey107
06-13-2010, 09:53 PM
Okay. Let me ask you guys this...What is Colvin's single biggest flaw that prevents him from being an offensive force on a consistent basis?
Contact rate.

Kirel
06-13-2010, 09:54 PM
Okay. Let me ask you guys this...What is Colvin's single biggest flaw that prevents him from being an offensive force on a consistent basis?
Single biggest flaw?

Thus far he strikes out as often as Adam Dunn but walks half as often. You just don't strike out 30% of the time and keep a batting average over .260. I don't think he can maintain a high enough batting average for his walk rate and power in full time play.

Dmac
06-13-2010, 10:01 PM
Walking a bit much for that.

Chris Young maybe? Though I"m not convinced he has near that much power.

I know he isn't current, but what about Luis Gonzalez? Before his Arizona days of course. I don't know why, but Colvin reminds me alot of him in his Houston years.

Kirel
06-13-2010, 10:04 PM
I know he isn't current, but what about Luis Gonzalez? Before his Arizona days of course. I don't know why, but Colvin reminds me alot of him in his Houston years.
If Colvin can halve his strikeout rate that probably wouldn't be a bad comp. But right now Colvin is striking out a lot, Gonzalez didn't strike out much at all.

Guny Highway
06-13-2010, 10:10 PM
Ok, is Starlin the real deal?

jodydavis
06-13-2010, 10:35 PM
I agree Colvin strikes out a lot and i'm worried about that. It is not a new concen as that was a bid dig against him in the minors as well especially before last year. However, I've had it with Fukodome, he has shown in 2+ years that the Cubs grossly overestimated his talent and he's really nothing more than a solid #4 outfielder. Colvin may strike out a lot, but he has made solid contact almost all year and maintained a .300 BA while playing sporadically in his rookie season, not easy to do. This team is going nowhere, time to play him and see what he can do. If he wasn't hitting .300 it would be another story, but he has earned the right.

toovey107
06-13-2010, 10:43 PM
I agree Colvin strikes out a lot and i'm worried about that. It is not a new concen as that was a bid dig against him in the minors as well especially before last year. However, I've had it with Fukodome, he has shown in 2+ years that the Cubs grossly overestimated his talent and he's really nothing more than a solid #4 outfielder. Colvin may strike out a lot, but he has made solid contact almost all year and maintained a .300 BA while playing sporadically in his rookie season, not easy to do. This team is going nowhere, time to play him and see what he can do. If he wasn't hitting .300 it would be another story, but he has earned the right.

Wrong.

Wrong.

Don't mind that.

Doesn't matter.

Doogolas
06-13-2010, 10:57 PM
What does Castro have to do with Colvin?

Rndy
06-13-2010, 11:01 PM
Ok, is Starlin the real deal?



They couldn't be any more opposite. You know nothing about baseball if you think that.

PSD needs a Baseball IQ test before registering.

windycityD
06-13-2010, 11:16 PM
What's glaringly clear to me is that on a bi-weekly basis, Lou and management make these hollow pronouncements. Granted, Castro and Cashner have been promoted and have been given big roles this season. The big diff is, they are our #1 and #2 specs. Colvin was an iffy signing 4 years ago and has probably peaked with his trade value based on how he's played so far.

Colvin has no everyday playing fit in the OF until Fukudome is gone. Since I do not see any team out there willing to take on 12 million of Fukudome's 2011 contract, you do one of two things with Colvin: play him at 1b or package him w/ pitching for a legitimate 1b spec to replace D Lee. Smoak is of course the hot name, but Texas would want more than Gorzo for him. I would offer them Silva and Colvin for Smoak, right now, and see if they would bite. With Harden going down yet again and Silva's trade value A+ right now, that's the long-term move to add offense on the cheap that should be explored.

Guny Highway
06-14-2010, 12:08 AM
They couldn't be any more opposite. You know nothing about baseball if you think that.

PSD needs a Baseball IQ test before registering.



What are you talking about? A few of the fellas were weighing in on Colvin's chances. Since I don't have their insight on young players potential, I was curious to their thoughts on Castro, as we were talking about another young player in Colvin. If you have nothing constructive to add then move on. Not sure why people need to throw insults at legit questions but those who do only illustrate their own ignorance.

Again I was not comparing Colvin to Castro. Gain some comprehension skills or get hooked on phonics.

Guny Highway
06-14-2010, 12:10 AM
What does Castro have to do with Colvin?



Nothing other than he is young as is Colvin. You guys seem to have a good feel for Colvin's potential, I wanted your opnion on Castro's as well.

Captain Obvious
06-14-2010, 12:17 AM
They couldn't be any more opposite. You know nothing about baseball if you think that.

PSD needs a Baseball IQ test before registering.

No, they just need an IQ test, period.

Brad IBCB
06-14-2010, 12:19 AM
This team isn't going to win. It's finished, finito, done. What's so bad about giving the kid a shot to start on an everyday basis? Because it means Theriot is leading off more? Because it moves an overpaid Fukudome (who is cooling way down after his usual April dominance) to the bench? Give me a ****ing break. It's time to look towards the future. Get used to it.

Captain Obvious
06-14-2010, 12:22 AM
This team isn't going to win. It's finished, finito, done. What's so bad about giving the kid a shot to start on an everyday basis? Because it means Theriot is leading off more? Because it moves an overpaid Fukudome (who is cooling way down after his usual April dominance) to the bench? Give me a ****ing break. It's time to look towards the future. Get used to it.

Yeah, because 7.5 games is like the world's biggest mountain to overcome. Especially since the Reds and Cards are so dominant. Totally, man.

Guny Highway
06-14-2010, 12:40 AM
This team can win. It just needs to get it going.

Today is a perfect example. Lilly pitches a gem, but we only score one run. We can go off and rip a team for 15 runs, I would be happy with 4 on a consistent basis.

zambo4president
06-14-2010, 12:42 AM
I love Tyler Colvin. I had the sig since like the 1st or 2nd week of the season too. Makes me look smarter:cool:

Brad IBCB
06-14-2010, 01:01 AM
Yeah, because 7.5 games is like the world's biggest mountain to overcome. Especially since the Reds and Cards are so dominant. Totally, man.

I agree, 7.5 isn't insurmountable by any means. I just don't see it happening. Not with this team, not this year.

zambo4president
06-14-2010, 01:29 AM
Guys Brad doesn't see it happening:sigh: I mean not with this team and having Bronson Arroyo in the division:sad2:

Ron!n
06-14-2010, 03:47 AM
They couldn't be any more opposite. You know nothing about baseball if you think that.

PSD needs a Baseball IQ test before registering.


No, they just need an IQ test, period.

Chill out a bit guys. He only wants to know what we think of Castro.

Castro has the tools to succeed. Hes hit wherever hes gone but he has hit a bit of a rough stretch lately. However, that could be due to fatigue more than anything else.
His glove seems to be as advertised and he was making very good contact outside of his last slump. He could use a bit more walks, but hes only 20 yrs old and he hasnt K'ed all that much.

ST.maarten'stop
06-14-2010, 04:28 AM
Man i hate Kirel and his over pessimistic ways..its like he came home and caught someone ****ing his wife and couldn't handle it.. now he believes the whole world is doomed...he thought the same thing about castro... Minus the ugly k rates colvin has been nothing but great so far this year jacque and reed.. you ****ing kidding me... he's definetly no Braun but the potential to be a marginal alll star... you guys keep referencing his minors numbers but i take those with a grain of salt because this is the first time in his professional career he's fully healthy (tommy john).. for some discipline come over time.. thats the difference between colvin being great and meh a ok outfielder...After this season i will judge him seeing that this is the first season of him being fully healthy.. minor league numbers doubt always translate to ML performance there guys that sucked in the minors and turned it on in the ML there is just as much argument for the other way around...but i would thing being a cubs fan and all people would be optimistic and hope for positive rather than pull him down and point out short comings.. fact is whether you like it or not he's performing then everyone expected at this point..im willing to give him the benefit of doubt

Milnertime
06-14-2010, 06:40 AM
Man i hate Kirel and his over pessimistic ways..its like he came home and caught someone ****ing his wife and couldn't handle it.. now he believes the whole world is doomed...he thought the same thing about castro... Minus the ugly k rates colvin has been nothing but great so far this year jacque and reed.. you ****ing kidding me... he's definetly no Braun but the potential to be a marginal alll star... you guys keep referencing his minors numbers but i take those with a grain of salt because this is the first time in his professional career he's fully healthy (tommy john).. for some discipline come over time.. thats the difference between colvin being great and meh a ok outfielder...After this season i will judge him seeing that this is the first season of him being fully healthy.. minor league numbers doubt always translate to ML performance there guys that sucked in the minors and turned it on in the ML there is just as much argument for the other way around...but i would thing being a cubs fan and all people would be optimistic and hope for positive rather than pull him down and point out short comings.. fact is whether you like it or not he's performing then everyone expected at this point..im willing to give him the benefit of doubt

How often is Kirel wrong?

Not very often, meaning his "overly pessimistic" views are actually just realistic.

If you don't take his word for it (and I know you don't take the statistics' factual evidence for it.....probably because you don't understand them), I'm sure you would take the slew of scouts who have called Colvin a 4th OF at best.

The Cubs are the only club that seemed to think he was worth a first round selection. That's because he's simply not that good. He's a tweener.....not enough defense for CF, not enough offense for COF.

Take off the homer glasses and look with some objectivity and you'll see that guys with high K rates that don't hit lots of home runs and walk a bunch (a la Mark Reynolds and Adam Dunn) aren't very successful at hitting in the big leagues.

redwhitenblue
06-14-2010, 07:25 AM
Nothing other than he is young as is Colvin. You guys seem to have a good feel for Colvin's potential, I wanted your opnion on Castro's as well.
Except he's not even close to the same age.

Castro is 20.
Colvin is what, 24 or 25.



Anyways, Colvin's a 4th OF, simple as that. He should've been playing full-time in AAA preparing in case of an injury to any of our OF's. If that were the case, no one would even be complaining because our OF has actually performed pretty damn well so far. Sure Fukudome has had a poor month or so, but he's still overall doing fine.

redwhitenblue
06-14-2010, 09:03 AM
Okay, then stop posting. Go to the cubs.com forums.

Str1fe5
06-14-2010, 11:20 AM
It's more than likely that Colvin is just a 4th OF, but scouts + stats have been wrong before. The line between a 4th OF and a useful 5/6 hitter with plus defense in a COF spot isn't that huge. Given that Fukudome is a fairly known quantity offensively, and his defense just hasn't been what is was in 2008, added to the fact that this team is almost certainly not a contender, I have no problem giving Colvin the bulk of the starts in RF for the next couple of months. It can't hurt.

Ron!n
06-14-2010, 11:24 AM
homer glasses.. go **** yourself... tired of the biaseness on here.. stats my balls you guy minipulate some stats to make thing look the way you want..i mean i been here awhile cuz getting the updates is kool but there is a reason why there's only 5 to 10 different posters here constantly and then were the problem...a bunch of 18 to 21 year old who believe they know all based on what they hear.. people can say what they want how many times has the human being judgement been wrong.. cant give to **** if i get a ban now i've had it with you *******s
I dont get it. You dont plan on listening to stats, nor do you plan on listening to what scouts have said.

So basically you're going by what you think. So if I were to think that Colvin is going to fail, what does that mean?

Kirel
06-14-2010, 11:27 AM
Ok, is Starlin the real deal?
While I wouldn't call him the real deal yet(And rarely will you get me to call someone that before about 1000 PAs), but his circumstances are different.


For starters, he's a shortstop and looks like he can play shortstop. The bar is far, far lower at shortstop than any other position on the field. Colvin needs to live up to standards set by countless allstar power hitters, Castro merely needs to not suck.

Secondly his K rate is somewhere near half of Colvins while his walk rate is about 2/3rds of Colvins. Castro should be able to maintain the higher batting average and probably the higher OBP. I've little doubt Colvin will hit for more power, I just don't think his batting average will hold up.

The difference between them is that Castro is 20 and has the tools to be a contact hitter at a premium position while Colvin is 25 and has the tools to be a moderate power bat at a low value position. Colvin just isn't going to hit 40 home runs, he isn't going to hit .300, and he's not going to walk 100 times. Once hte league scouts Colvin like they have Castro I expect a massive dip in Colvins performance.

That said, I do think Castro was rushed a little and he's not having a particularly good season. He belongs in AAA right now.

Kirel
06-14-2010, 11:29 AM
It's more than likely that Colvin is just a 4th OF, but scouts + stats have been wrong before. The line between a 4th OF and a useful 5/6 hitter with plus defense in a COF spot isn't that huge. Given that Fukudome is a fairly known quantity offensively, and his defense just hasn't been what is was in 2008, added to the fact that this team is almost certainly not a contender, I have no problem giving Colvin the bulk of the starts in RF for the next couple of months. It can't hurt.
It can hurt quite a bit.

Colvin has 2 great months, falls off in august, gets penciled into the lineup next year anyway and manages to be below replacement all year while still getting full time play based on a small sample a year before.

Its the Todd Hollandsworth principal. Guys like Colvin worry the hell out of me.

ST.maarten'stop
06-14-2010, 11:32 AM
I dont get it. You dont plan on listening to stats, nor do you plan on listening to what scouts have said.

So basically you're going by what you think. So if I were to think that Colvin is going to fail, what does that mean?

Would be your opinion..just like everyone else has theirs....

i have no problems with opinions being posted but its the constant immature reactions to any idea that may defer from some people in here's think..its annoying

BDawk4Prez
06-14-2010, 11:33 AM
I have seen Colvin and I know what he can do.

Kirel
06-14-2010, 11:37 AM
Would be your opinion..just like everyone else has theirs....

i have no problems with opinions being posted but its the constant immature reactions to any idea that may defer from some people in here's think..its annoying
Hah, constant immature reactions...seriously?

Have you read your own posts?

The only person who consistently gets immature when people defer from their opinions is you.

ST.maarten'stop
06-14-2010, 11:43 AM
Hah, constant immature reactions...seriously?

Have you read your own posts?

The only person who consistently gets immature when people defer from their opinions is you.

n you dont...:mad:

we got beef mr. pessimistic

Marlin Bystro
06-14-2010, 11:44 AM
Colvin needs to play every day so we can see him play. I don't think there is any reason to be up in arms about that.

Colvin has a really fluid swing with great loft. Probably a fringe CF defensively, but can play there. I think he has a chance to carve out a niche as a starter and possibly be more than that. I think he will cut down on the K's with more consistent playing time, but I guess that is another reason why we need to see him play full time.

Kirel
06-14-2010, 11:45 AM
n you dont...:mad:

we got beef mr. pessimistic
I certainly wasn't the one who posted:



Man i hate Kirel and his over pessimistic ways..its like he came home and caught someone ****ing his wife and couldn't handle it.. now he believes the whole world is doomed...

Within my last 10 posts.

ST.maarten'stop
06-14-2010, 11:47 AM
Okay, then stop posting. Go to the cubs.com forums.

hell NO some people hear are biased snobs...on cubs.com forum their biased and ****ing ********...

ST.maarten'stop
06-14-2010, 11:49 AM
I certainly wasn't the one who posted:

Man i hate Kirel and his over pessimistic ways..its like he came home and caught someone ****ing his wife and couldn't handle it.. now he believes the whole world is doomed...

Within my last 10 posts.

:D was kinda funny

Kirel
06-14-2010, 11:49 AM
Colvin needs to play every day so we can see him play. I don't think there is any reason to be up in arms about that.

Colvin has a really fluid swing with great loft. Probably a fringe CF defensively, but can play there. I think he has a chance to carve out a niche as a starter and possibly be more than that. I think he will cut down on the K's with more consistent playing time, but I guess that is another reason why we need to see him play full time.
I get the feeling Colvin is one of those guys who looks way better than he is. I just don't think he ever manages to be a big league starter for any team with serious interest in a .500 season.

With his skillset he needs to halve his K-Rate, not merely improve it slightly, to be a legitimate starting major league corner OF. I'm not sure many players have actually been able to do that. He might be able to, but he probably won't.

The funny thing is that he's doing *EVERYTHING* Matt Murton did in his first season, striking out more, but he gets way more fan support. Funny how that goes.

poodski
06-14-2010, 11:49 AM
I still think Colvin is basically Jacque Jones.

That not completely a bad thing.

Kirel
06-14-2010, 11:51 AM
:D was kinda funny
No, it was immature and stupid.

But it's what we expect from you. Profanity, toilet humor, and poor baseball opinoins. Thats what you post. And thats ok, its' clearly what you have to offer, but you shouldn't be one throwing stones.

Kirel
06-14-2010, 11:52 AM
I still think Colvin is basically Jacque Jones.

That not completely a bad thing.
No, just nothing to celebrate or remotely care about. He's cheap and might be fringe average.

He doesn't belong on the Cubs though. Jones didn't either.

BDawk4Prez
06-14-2010, 11:53 AM
I still think Colvin is basically Jacque Jones.

That not completely a bad thing.

I remember being a big JJ supporter and getting pummeled in here.

I miss JJ.

Marlin Bystro
06-14-2010, 11:55 AM
I still think Colvin is basically Jacque Jones.

That not completely a bad thing.

I see a little bit of Jason Kubel with better defense.

With Colvin's added strength I think I can start to project power potential in the 20-25 area.

Jilly Bohnson
06-14-2010, 11:57 AM
Colvin needs to play every day so we can see him play. I don't think there is any reason to be up in arms about that.

Colvin has a really fluid swing with great loft. Probably a fringe CF defensively, but can play there. I think he has a chance to carve out a niche as a starter and possibly be more than that. I think he will cut down on the K's with more consistent playing time, but I guess that is another reason why we need to see him play full time.

The K's will go down playing every day, but so will the power. The big question is where will they both level off and will he lower his K-rate by enough to offset his power lowering.

cowboydoc45
06-14-2010, 11:59 AM
I get the feeling Colvin is one of those guys who looks way better than he is. I just don't think he ever manages to be a big league starter for any team with serious interest in a .500 season.

With his skillset he needs to halve his K-Rate, not merely improve it slightly, to be a legitimate starting major league corner OF. I'm not sure many players have actually been able to do that. He might be able to, but he probably won't.

The funny thing is that he's doing *EVERYTHING* Matt Murton did in his first season, striking out more, but he gets way more fan support. Funny how that goes.

I was all for the Ginger Jesus... I was happy when he got traded to the Rockies, and then sent to AAA, mostly because I got to see him in Colorado Springs when I was there... but you are right, Colvin is basicly a LH version of Murton, and I think the LH thing is what gives him the support (that and he won the spot out of ST, instead of being brought up mid season)

Kirel
06-14-2010, 12:15 PM
The K's will go down playing every day, but so will the power. The big question is where will they both level off and will he lower his K-rate by enough to offset his power lowering.
I'm not even confident his K-Rate is going to fall.

Full time play means advance scouts get 12-16 plate appearences to watch, rather than 5 or 6, plus way more video. Whatever holes are in his swing are likely to get fully exposed once he's playing every day. Can he correct for that?

I personally expect his ISO to fall atleast 80 points, probably more like 100. His HR/FB is at 25%. That'd lead the majors right now if he qualified. For the moment I think his line gonig forward will be something like .260/.310/.440 or so. ZIPS currently thinks .265/.311/.464, but I just don't think he'll maintain the .200 ISOP they think he will.

windycityD
06-14-2010, 12:16 PM
I get the feeling Colvin is one of those guys who looks way better than he is. I just don't think he ever manages to be a big league starter for any team with serious interest in a .500 season.

With his skillset he needs to halve his K-Rate, not merely improve it slightly, to be a legitimate starting major league corner OF. I'm not sure many players have actually been able to do that. He might be able to, but he probably won't.

The funny thing is that he's doing *EVERYTHING* Matt Murton did in his first season, striking out more, but he gets way more fan support. Funny how that goes.

unlike Murton, and assuming Colvin does not get packaged and dealt, Colvin may actually benefit from a lame duck season and organizational sea change regarding the current GM and manager. I see no scenario where Hendry survives, barring some miracle turn around and legitimate playoff hunt. Lou is basically Dusty ala 2006- too "established" and "respected" to be handed the pink slip in-season.

Colvin, just like Silva, is a guy we probably should be selling high on right now, not a month from now when who knows. IMO, it would be a diff story were this Fukudome's last season contract wise. In that scenario, Colvin is likely your platooned RF in 2011.

poodski
06-14-2010, 12:17 PM
I see a little bit of Jason Kubel with better defense.

With Colvin's added strength I think I can start to project power potential in the 20-25 area.

I see no way Colvin walks as much as Kubel does, same goes with Murton. Though Colvin probably has more power than Murton, though not sure about Kubel.

Certainly better defense than Kubel. I dont think either of those are good comparisons.

Kirel
06-14-2010, 12:19 PM
I see no way Colvin walks as much as Kubel does, same goes with Murton. Though Colvin probably has more power than Murton, though not sure about Kubel.

Certainly better defense than Kubel. I dont think either of those are good comparisons.
I bring Murton up more because of their first seasons: Hot, unrepeatable starts in a short sample.

If Colvin cools off to even a high end .280/.330/.460 hitter or so, I suspect most fans are still going to be highly upset he's not Ryan Braun like people want to think he is right now. If he falls to a useful .265/.320/.460 CF who strikes out 200 times a year, he might well be run out of town.

poodski
06-14-2010, 12:21 PM
No, just nothing to celebrate or remotely care about. He's cheap and might be fringe average.

He doesn't belong on the Cubs though. Jones didn't either.

I dont know. Jones was pretty expensive, but Colvin being under team control isnt that bad. Especially on a team that is busting the seams of its payroll limits.

Getting fringe average production for less than a million per isnt all that bad. Its not ideal especially from a corner OF spot, but I would rather have Colvin plus Uggla than Fukudome plus Fontenot/Baker or something similar for 2011-2012.

Yeah he is not anything to be that excited about or celebrate, but he is certainly something worth caring about. Especially if these power numbers are legit. He could go from Jacque Jones to Alfonso Soriano-lite.

Marlin Bystro
06-14-2010, 12:24 PM
I see no way Colvin walks as much as Kubel does, same goes with Murton. Though Colvin probably has more power than Murton, though not sure about Kubel.

Certainly better defense than Kubel. I dont think either of those are good comparisons.

I don't know Colvin already is walking more than Kubel did at a similar age. I will stick by my comparison from an offensive perspective.

Jilly Bohnson
06-14-2010, 12:32 PM
I'm not even confident his K-Rate is going to fall.

Full time play means advance scouts get 12-16 plate appearences to watch, rather than 5 or 6, plus way more video. Whatever holes are in his swing are likely to get fully exposed once he's playing every day. Can he correct for that?

I personally expect his ISO to fall atleast 80 points, probably more like 100. His HR/FB is at 25%. That'd lead the majors right now if he qualified. For the moment I think his line gonig forward will be something like .260/.310/.440 or so. ZIPS currently thinks .265/.311/.464, but I just don't think he'll maintain the .200 ISOP they think he will.

And on the flipside of extra scouting is more reps instead of just one to two starts a week. The guy struck out 18% of the time in the minors both for his career and last season in AA. Now yeah the extra walks are going to lead to more K's, but he's not a guy that ever really had contact problems. He's not going to be an over 30 percent guy most likely. Maybe now that he's walking at a good rate probably a 25 percent guy, but that'd still have him hit something like .270/.340/.480 or .280/.350/.500. And then if he goes back to hacking at everything I'd expect his K rate to be at or under 20%, althoguh I think I'd rather have the extra K's with the extra walks.

windycityD
06-14-2010, 12:33 PM
I dont know. Jones was pretty expensive, but Colvin being under team control isnt that bad. Especially on a team that is busting the seams of its payroll limits.

Getting fringe average production for less than a million per isnt all that bad. Its not ideal especially from a corner OF spot, but I would rather have Colvin plus Uggla than Fukudome plus Fontenot/Baker or something similar for 2011-2012.

Yeah he is not anything to be that excited about or celebrate, but he is certainly something worth caring about. Especially if these power numbers are legit. He could go from Jacque Jones to Alfonso Soriano-lite.

That just two years ago it looked like Colvin would be yet another total bust in terms of a home-grown OF makes all this talk regarding him at least in one respect positive.

I keep coming back to reality, though. Fukudome's contract is virtually impossible to move and he's here thr 2011, playing the one spot where Colvin could get more consistent pt. Sure, there could be a Bradley-esque deal out there where someone night be willing to eat most of Fukudome's 2011 deal while we assume one of their so so players/ payroll eaters coming back. I'm having a hard time seeing that deal out there, though.

Ron!n
06-14-2010, 12:39 PM
Why is Fuku's contracted viewed as a really bad contract? Its only 13.5 left next year and hes actually performed to a certain extent.

If we were looking to deal him id imagine we could easily move him for a decent return without adding any significant cash. And if we were to add cash it would just increase the value of players coming back our way.

Kirel
06-14-2010, 12:39 PM
I dont know. Jones was pretty expensive, but Colvin being under team control isnt that bad. Especially on a team that is busting the seams of its payroll limits.

Getting fringe average production for less than a million per isnt all that bad. Its not ideal especially from a corner OF spot, but I would rather have Colvin plus Uggla than Fukudome plus Fontenot/Baker or something similar for 2011-2012.

Yeah he is not anything to be that excited about or celebrate, but he is certainly something worth caring about. Especially if these power numbers are legit. He could go from Jacque Jones to Alfonso Soriano-lite.
I'm not so sure. Uggla has a clean chance to go south quick. He'd be nice to have this year, but the next two I"m not so sure about. I'm also not sure that positionally Fontenot isn't roughly as valuable as Colvin. Depends on how well Colvin manages to defend CF I suppose.

The Cubs need a cheap impact bat. Soto isn't doing that quite the way I'd hoped. With or without Colvin the team is going to have to spend a huge amount on average players just to stay competitive. Colvin in RF probably won't mean that much all told. In a proper competitive market with an efficent team he's saving 5 or 6 million a season. He just doesn't replace the "Hope he's JD Drew" gamble that Fukudome was. It didn't work out, but the team paid Fukudome with the hopes he was .300/.420/.450 hitter and will need to pay someoen else that money to do the same thing.

BUD Bleachers
06-14-2010, 12:42 PM
I was all for the Ginger Jesus... I was happy when he got traded to the Rockies, and then sent to AAA, mostly because I got to see him in Colorado Springs when I was there... but you are right, Colvin is basicly a LH version of Murton, and I think the LH thing is what gives him the support (that and he won the spot out of ST, instead of being brought up mid season)

So, Tyler Colvin has played a fraction of two and a half months in the big leagues and he's now the left-handed Matt Murton?

Hmm. We're still stuck on Matt Murton.

I feel sorry for some of you even more than I do the Cubs.

Kirel
06-14-2010, 12:42 PM
And on the flipside of extra scouting is more reps instead of just one to two starts a week. The guy struck out 18% of the time in the minors both for his career and last season in AA. Now yeah the extra walks are going to lead to more K's, but he's not a guy that ever really had contact problems. He's not going to be an over 30 percent guy most likely. Maybe now that he's walking at a good rate probably a 25 percent guy, but that'd still have him hit something like .270/.340/.480 or .280/.350/.500. And then if he goes back to hacking at everything I'd expect his K rate to be at or under 20%, althoguh I think I'd rather have the extra K's with the extra walks.
Ehh, maybe. We'll have to see. I'd guess 25-30% is far more likely than under 20, even if he is hacking at everything.

I also do not think his power is near a .220 IsoP. I'm guessing more like .150-.180 so even at your optimistic numbers wer'e talking something more like .270/.340/.450, passable but not great even in CF.

Kirel
06-14-2010, 12:43 PM
So, Tyler Colvin has played a fraction of two and a half months in the big leagues and he's now the left-handed Matt Murton?

Hmm. We're still stuck on Matt Murton.

I feel sorry for some of you even more than I do the Cubs.
Most of Murtons legacy was built on roughly two and a half months of play.

Jilly Bohnson
06-14-2010, 12:44 PM
Why is Fuku's contracted viewed as a really bad contract? Its only 13.5 left next year and hes actually performed to a certain extent.

If we were looking to deal him id imagine we could easily move him for a decent return without adding any significant cash. And if we were to add cash it would just increase the value of players coming back our way.

It's not awful but it's bad. If we moved him it'd probably be either not pay much of his contract or get something decent back, not both. You'd have to imagine he's gone though. Right or wrong Colvin's getting the RF job, you can't have a 13 million dollar player riding the pine.

Jilly Bohnson
06-14-2010, 12:51 PM
Ehh, maybe. We'll have to see. I'd guess 25-30% is far more likely than under 20, even if he is hacking at everything.

I also do not think his power is near a .220 IsoP. I'm guessing more like .150-.180 so even at your optimistic numbers wer'e talking something more like .270/.340/.450, passable but not great even in CF.

He has a .188 for his minor league career. And that was in mostly pitchers parks with a bum elbow and before he added all that muscle. I think .220 is a hell of a lot more likely than .150. I think if he stays patient we're looking at something like .270/.340/.480 and if he regresses we're looking at something like .290/.330/.500. Either way that line with above average defense at a COF position is a nice player. Although both of those projections assume he gets his early contact issues in check.

Kirel
06-14-2010, 12:54 PM
He has a .188 for his minor league career. And that was in mostly pitchers parks with a bum elbow and before he added all that muscle. I think .220 is a hell of a lot more likely than .150. I think if he stays patient we're looking at something like .270/.340/.480 and if he regresses we're looking at something like .290/.330/.500. Either way that line with above average defense at a COF position is a nice player. Although both of those projections assume he gets his early contact issues in check.
It's still the minor leagues.

I think you are overstating his power, but I guess time will tell.

You do realize, however, that you are projecting him to be Matt Kemp? Maybe a bit better even.

I really do think 4-5 WAR is a bit of a stretch even at drugged optimism levels.

poodski
06-14-2010, 12:59 PM
Yeah I think Jilly's lines are a little high. If we are making predictions I would say 260/300/480

Jilly Bohnson
06-14-2010, 01:19 PM
It's still the minor leagues.

I think you are overstating his power, but I guess time will tell.

You do realize, however, that you are projecting him to be Matt Kemp? Maybe a bit better even.

I really do think 4-5 WAR is a bit of a stretch even at drugged optimism levels.

The only difference is Matt Kemp is doing it in a pitches park and on the other end of the defensive spectrum. Plus all the intangibles like baserunning and such. Kemp, aside from this year where he's apparently been Cliff Floyd out in center, was an above average defensive center fielder that ran the bases like a badass and hit really well. A legit five tool guy, Colvin's probably got this year and maybe next where he's a passable center fielder or very good COF, and then he'll probably grow out of it. Plus Matt Kemp has outside of last year been more projection than production to this point.

Kirel
06-14-2010, 01:45 PM
The only difference is Matt Kemp is doing it in a pitches park and on the other end of the defensive spectrum. Plus all the intangibles like baserunning and such. Kemp, aside from this year where he's apparently been Cliff Floyd out in center, was an above average defensive center fielder that ran the bases like a badass and hit really well. A legit five tool guy, Colvin's probably got this year and maybe next where he's a passable center fielder or very good COF, and then he'll probably grow out of it. Plus Matt Kemp has outside of last year been more projection than production to this point.
Still, you are projecting Colvin as a top 50 player. 35+ homers, .340-.350 OBP, plus defense in RF. That's not exactly common. Thats' 4 WAR easy, maybe 5 if his glove looks good that year.

windycityD
06-14-2010, 01:57 PM
It's not awful but it's bad. If we moved him it'd probably be either not pay much of his contract or get something decent back, not both. You'd have to imagine he's gone though. Right or wrong Colvin's getting the RF job, you can't have a 13 million dollar player riding the pine.

Fukudome wont ride the pine. That's why all of this recent RF-Colvin talk from Lou is to some degree moot. I'm sticking to the premise that you cannot easily move Fukudome's contract, especially this season. Byrd is hitting too well to relegate his CF pt and Fukudome is simply best played in RF. That leaves this all as what, Colvin maybe getting 2 extra starts a week, including pt in LF?

Hendry has had several square pegs in round holes issues with our OF since 2005. In that span, he's thrown big FA money at Jones, Soriano, and Fukudome and had two bust-outs in Patterson and Pie. If it comes down to dealing Lilly next month, who imo is our best all around trade chip, we have to get a good, young OF back in that deal, along with a better than decent 1b spec. If we start flipping pitching, we need to get offense back.

BDawk4Prez
06-14-2010, 02:02 PM
Fukudome wont ride the pine. That's why all of this recent RF-Colvin talk from Lou is to some degree moot. I'm sticking to the premise that you cannot easily move Fukudome's contract, especially this season. Byrd is hitting too well to relegate his CF pt and Fukudome is simply best played in RF. That leaves this all as what, Colvin maybe getting 2 extra starts a week, including pt in LF?

Hendry has had several square pegs in round holes issues with our OF since 2005. In that span, he's thrown big FA money at Jones, Soriano, and Fukudome and had two bust-outs in Patterson and Pie. If it comes down to dealing Lilly next month, who imo is our best all around trade chip, we have to get a good, young OF back in that deal, along with a better than decent 1b spec. If we start flipping pitching, we need to get offense back.

Agree entirely.

Kirel
06-14-2010, 02:04 PM
Fukudome wont ride the pine. That's why all of this recent RF-Colvin talk from Lou is to some degree moot. I'm sticking to the premise that you cannot easily move Fukudome's contract, especially this season. Byrd is hitting too well to relegate his CF pt and Fukudome is simply best played in RF. That leaves this all as what, Colvin maybe getting 2 extra starts a week, including pt in LF?

Hendry has had several square pegs in round holes issues with our OF since 2005. In that span, he's thrown big FA money at Jones, Soriano, and Fukudome and had two bust-outs in Patterson and Pie. If it comes down to dealing Lilly next month, who imo is our best all around trade chip, we have to get a good, young OF back in that deal, along with a better than decent 1b spec. If we start flipping pitching, we need to get offense back.
I see no reason any team would give up a good young OF thats better than Colvin and a good young 1B prospect for maybe 3 months of Lilly. You are expecting too much IMHO.

Think prospects, not major leaguers.

windycityD
06-14-2010, 02:13 PM
I see no reason any team would give up a good young OF thats better than Colvin and a good young 1B prospect for maybe 3 months of Lilly. You are expecting too much IMHO.

Think prospects, not major leaguers.

I am thinking specs and/ or very new to this level, young players. And my point is that we don't need more pitching. We need bats coming back, as in plural, if/ when we flip guys like Lilly, Silva, etc. I also want to see Cashner in the rotation by Aug if we do bust out all the way and start dealing away in late July.

Lilly has very good value & you simply never know what another GM will give up when an arm like that gets dangled. After Cliff Lee and maybe Oswalt, Lilly is right there in terms of an impact, front line starter. The key is finding the match where starting pitching is needed to go over the top and hitting is in some abundance. Texas does come to mind, and specifically, Smoak.

poodski
06-14-2010, 02:15 PM
We arent getting smoak for Lilly. Just no way.

BDawk4Prez
06-14-2010, 02:15 PM
We arent getting smoak for Lilly. Just no way.

Noone asked you. :punish:

windycityD
06-14-2010, 02:20 PM
We arent getting smoak for Lilly. Just no way.

What does Texas need: a good, vet lefty starter
What do we need: a good, young 1b with power

This deal is not impossible or outside the realm of possibility imho. Sure, it may be a long-shot. But, you simply never know what could transpire come July and a deal like that could also have tack on players where Texas gets another arm sent with Lilly and we get another spec piece back with Smoak. All I'm saying is, Lilly is our best trade chip. Use him to his maximum and get a good bat back.

poodski
06-14-2010, 02:23 PM
What does Texas need: a good, vet lefty starter
What do we need: a good, young 1b with power

This deal is not impossible or outside the realm of possibility imho. Sure, it may be a long-shot. But, you simply never know what could transpire come July and a deal like that could also have tack on players where Texas gets another arm sent with Lilly and we get another spec piece back with Smoak. All I'm saying is, Lilly is our best trade chip. Use him to his maximum and get a good bat back.

You might get back Chris Davis or something, but I really cant imagine Texas gives up Smoak for 2-3 months of Lilly. I would love it if it happened, but I cant see it happening.

Ron!n
06-14-2010, 02:28 PM
You might get back Chris Davis or something, but I really cant imagine Texas gives up Smoak for 2-3 months of Lilly. I would love it if it happened, but I cant see it happening.
I dont see it happening either. But for whatever reason it seems Texas is pretty low on Smoak and his name has popped up in trade rumors.

windycityD
06-14-2010, 02:32 PM
You might get back Chris Davis or something, but I really cant imagine Texas gives up Smoak for 2-3 months of Lilly. I would love it if it happened, but I cant see it happening.

If we were trading Lilly for just Chris Davis, we would not be making a great deal, despite the rental status of Lilly. If we were getting that 2008 line of Davis', then I guess I'd be of a diff opinion. Look at the BB:K rate from 2008 to 2009 with him, with just what, 100 more ABs? Ouch.

poodski
06-14-2010, 02:35 PM
If we were trading Lilly for just Chris Davis, we would not be making a great deal, despite the rental status of Lilly. If we were getting that 2008 line of Davis', then I guess I'd be of a diff opinion. Look at the BB:K rate from 2008 to 2009 with him, with just what, 100 more ABs? Ouch.

I dont want Chris Davis by any means, I just think thats what you are more looking to get if you are wanting major league talent at 1B.

Though if Smoak can continue to get raped by the BABIP Gods we might have a shot, but I think Texas is smarter than that.

Brad IBCB
06-14-2010, 03:06 PM
Guys Brad doesn't see it happening:sigh: I mean not with this team and having Bronson Arroyo in the division:sad2:

You're a *******.

Mell413
06-14-2010, 03:25 PM
I don't have a problem with this. I know he's been lucky in the BABIP dept, but maybe it's just year where a lot goes right for him. Long term I think his bat fits better in center. One thing I don't like about this is that we will have to see Theriot in the leadoff spot. Not to turn this into the trade thread, but I think with Arizona falling out of the division race Kelly Johnson would be a good guy to have. I'm not sure of his contract situation off the top of my head, but I think he was on a one year deal though.

I'll just ask this question since some alluded to it in here. Do you think Lilly and Byrd could get Smoak? They need an arm and they are not getting anything out of center. With those two they should be able to win the division. IIRC they haven't made the playoffs in like 11 years. A deal like that may be too good to pass up. Plus I'm sure Nolan Ryan would deal a bat to get an arm.

If Colvin is the starting RF Kosuke needs to go. I won't go as far as to say it's an awful contract, but I guess the money could have been spent better. San Diego needs offense and IIRC Kosuke was considering San Diego before choosing the Cubs. Not sure what we could get from San Diego. Maybe Blanks?

Kirel
06-14-2010, 03:28 PM
I don't have a problem with this. I know he's been lucky in the BABIP dept, but maybe it's just year where a lot goes right for him. Long term I think his bat fits better in center. One thing I don't like about this is that we will have to see Theriot in the leadoff spot. Not to turn this into the trade thread, but I think with Arizona falling out of the division race Kelly Johnson would be a good guy to have. I'm not sure of his contract situation off the top of my head, but I think he was on a one year deal though.

I'll just ask this question since some alluded to it in here. Do you think Lilly and Byrd could get Smoak? They need an arm and they are not getting anything out of center. With those two they should be able to win the division. IIRC they haven't made the playoffs in like 11 years. A deal like that may be too good to pass up. Plus I'm sure Nolan Ryan would deal a bat to get an arm.

If Colvin is the starting RF Kosuke needs to go. I won't go as far as to say it's an awful contract, but I guess the money could have been spent better. San Diego needs offense and IIRC Kosuke was considering San Diego before choosing the Cubs. Not sure what we could get from San Diego. Maybe Blanks?
There is absolutly no reason to pay for Kelly Johnson right now. The Cubs aren't gonig anywhere and spending big on a guy having a career year is just a poor call.

I also see no reason why the Padres would want to trade Blanks away to get an equally risky, but much more expensive player in Fukudome.

windycityD
06-14-2010, 03:29 PM
I dont want Chris Davis by any means, I just think thats what you are more looking to get if you are wanting major league talent at 1B.

Though if Smoak can continue to get raped by the BABIP Gods we might have a shot, but I think Texas is smarter than that.

I freely admit, they be not that dumb. My window to Smoak is a small one to climb through, which I also freely admit.

Of course, they could trade for Oswalt and Berkman (they would not pick up his 2011 option of course) and we'll end up having to face Smoak for the next 5 years in our division.

Kirel
06-14-2010, 03:31 PM
I freely admit, they be not that dumb. My window to Smoak is a small one to climb through, which I also freely admit.

Of course, they could trade for Oswalt and Berkman (they would not pick up his 2011 option of course) and we'll end up having to face Smoak for the next 5 years in our division.
Or they could be, ya know, not a totally ******** team and not deal away a young 1B for two old players that they could acquire for far, far less using, you konw, those prospects things Texas has dozens of?

What is with this weird belief that the only thing Texas has to trade is Smoak?

windycityD
06-14-2010, 03:36 PM
Or they could be, ya know, not a totally ******** team and not deal away a young 1B for two old players that they could acquire for far, far less using, you konw, those prospects things Texas has dozens of?

What is with this weird belief that the only thing Texas has to trade is Smoak?

If you need to add a front line starter- and Texas clearly does to do anything in the AL West and beyond- the convo starts and stops with Smoak. It's pretty much that simple. Oswalt is far from done on the bump, you have him through 2011, & you don't have to carry the water with him past 2011.

What is with this belief that Smoak is un-tradeable, considering as you say, Texas has more than him in their org? You never know.

windycityD
06-14-2010, 03:46 PM
I don't have a problem with this. I know he's been lucky in the BABIP dept, but maybe it's just year where a lot goes right for him. Long term I think his bat fits better in center. One thing I don't like about this is that we will have to see Theriot in the leadoff spot. Not to turn this into the trade thread, but I think with Arizona falling out of the division race Kelly Johnson would be a good guy to have. I'm not sure of his contract situation off the top of my head, but I think he was on a one year deal though.

I'll just ask this question since some alluded to it in here. Do you think Lilly and Byrd could get Smoak? They need an arm and they are not getting anything out of center. With those two they should be able to win the division. IIRC they haven't made the playoffs in like 11 years. A deal like that may be too good to pass up. Plus I'm sure Nolan Ryan would deal a bat to get an arm.

If Colvin is the starting RF Kosuke needs to go. I won't go as far as to say it's an awful contract, but I guess the money could have been spent better. San Diego needs offense and IIRC Kosuke was considering San Diego before choosing the Cubs. Not sure what we could get from San Diego. Maybe Blanks?

When you look at what Fukudome is owed thr 2011 and what you'd get with him, ah, that's not a great contract. For almost every team in mlb.

I'm personally not sold on San Diego. I think their offense and their pitching will taper off. That said, right now, they are sitting somewhat pretty as is and they do not have money to freely spend away. We're stuck with Koske, just like we are with Soriano.

Kirel
06-14-2010, 03:49 PM
If you need to add a front line starter- and Texas clearly does to do anything in the AL West and beyond- the convo starts and stops with Smoak. It's pretty much that simple. Oswalt is far from done on the bump, you have him through 2011, & you don't have to carry the water with him past 2011.

What is with this belief that Smoak is un-tradeable, considering as you say, Texas has more than him in their org? You never know.
Why would it start and stop with Smoak? The Rangers have probably the best prospect pool in the league even with Smoak and Feliz out of it.

I see no reason to insist on Smoak and I see no reason for the Rangers to deal him. That you *WANT* it to be Smoak does not mean he's the only option or even the best one.

Milnertime
06-14-2010, 03:56 PM
We should see if Dayton Moore would be stupid enough to give away Eric Hosmer for Fukudome.

He's only in High A ball this year, so his impact wouldn't be immediate, but in a few years we probably wouldn't have a 1B problem, anymore.

Kirel
06-14-2010, 04:00 PM
We should see if Dayton Moore would be stupid enough to give away Eric Hosmer for Fukudome.

He's only in High A ball this year, so his impact wouldn't be immediate, but in a few years we probably wouldn't have a 1B problem, anymore.
Hah, now that would be amusing.

poodski
06-14-2010, 04:25 PM
We should see if Dayton Moore would be stupid enough to give away Eric Hosmer for Fukudome.

He's only in High A ball this year, so his impact wouldn't be immediate, but in a few years we probably wouldn't have a 1B problem, anymore.

I would consider trying for Kaiahue or whatever his name is as well.

Ron!n
06-14-2010, 04:26 PM
I actually dont see Texas as a legit trading partner. Their team is in limbo and any moves adding payroll are going to have to go through the commisioners office. So IMO its going to be very tough to make any deals.

However, trading Lilly while picking up the remainder of his contract could A) Get us a high return B) Facilitate a trade with Texas.

poodski
06-14-2010, 04:37 PM
I actually dont see Texas as a legit trading partner. Their team is in limbo and any moves adding payroll are going to have to go through the commisioners office. So IMO its going to be very tough to make any deals.

However, trading Lilly while picking up the remainder of his contract could A) Get us a high return B) Facilitate a trade with Texas.

Texas could be a very good trading partner. They have one of the best farms in the league. All you hear about though is Smoak.

windycityD
06-14-2010, 04:53 PM
Texas could be a very good trading partner. They have one of the best farms in the league. All you hear about though is Smoak.

Because Smoak has 35+ HR power. He could be an absolute monster.

Mitch Moreland is a RF/ 1b in their system (AAA) and top 10 spec. He's not exactly lighting up the PCL right now, but the guy shot up the charts for them over the course of last season. He does not have Smoak's power ceiling. Considering we have nothing in-house ready to emerge at 1b in 2011, there's another name.

thawv
06-14-2010, 04:53 PM
Get ready for a lot of Theriot leading off.

I don't even want to think about that. That's just horrible.

windycityD
06-14-2010, 04:59 PM
I don't even want to think about that. That's just horrible.

In 2011, Fukudome will be our primary lead off hitter. I say this because:

1) I don't think we can move his contract
2) His OBP justifies that
3) Lou wont be here

Let's face it, The Riot has pretty much had that role for a while now under Lou & post Soriano being moved out of the lead off spot. Two lead off hitters in a row that made no sense hitting lead off.

BDawk4Prez
06-14-2010, 05:02 PM
I forgot Soriano used to hit lead off here.

That's how gut wrenching the time with Theriot has been.

Ron!n
06-14-2010, 05:05 PM
Texas could be a very good trading partner. They have one of the best farms in the league. All you hear about though is Smoak.
Oh I know that, but I just think the fact that their team has to have all their moves go through Selig's office might make it difficult to get a deal done.

windycityD
06-14-2010, 05:12 PM
Oh I know that, but I just think the fact that their team has to have all their moves go through Selig's office might make it difficult to get a deal done.

Considering he started out as Commish while still silently owning the Brewers through his daughter kinda makes me think he'd be somewhat accommodating. Once a used car salesman always one.

windycityD
06-14-2010, 05:13 PM
I forgot Soriano used to hit lead off here.

That's how gut wrenching the time with Theriot has been.

Yes, gone are the days of his "but his OPS leading off..." mantras.

Doogolas
06-14-2010, 05:20 PM
Yes, gone are the days of his "but his OPS leading off..." mantras.

I'd still much rather Soriano lead off than Theriot.

Jilly Bohnson
06-14-2010, 05:22 PM
Still, you are projecting Colvin as a top 50 player. 35+ homers, .340-.350 OBP, plus defense in RF. That's not exactly common. Thats' 4 WAR easy, maybe 5 if his glove looks good that year.

Where the hell did I say 35+ homers? What I'm describing is basically Josh Willingham with less walks and a bit more batting average and defense you're taking that as something completely different. A .200 to .220 ISO is not 35+ homers unless you hit like single digit doubles or something.

Doogolas
06-14-2010, 05:37 PM
Where the hell did I say 35+ homers? What I'm describing is basically Josh Willingham with less walks and a bit more batting average and defense you're taking that as something completely different. A .200 to .220 ISO is not 35+ homers unless you hit like single digit doubles or something.

List of .200-.220ISO guys in 09 with HRs:
Matt Holliday: .201/24
Hanley Ramirez: .201/24
Mike Cameron: .202/24
Jermaine Dye: .203/27
Curtis Granderson: .204/30
Briann McCann: .205/21
Johnny Damon: .207/24
Torii Hunter: .208/22
Adam LaRoche: .211/25
Paul Konerko: .212/28
Aaron Hill: .213/36
Dan Uggla: .216/31

So yeah, for the most part it looks like you're thinking 25 to 30HRs?

Doogolas
06-14-2010, 05:43 PM
**** PSD. It times out and then randomly double posts me.

Jilly Bohnson
06-14-2010, 05:52 PM
List of .200-.220ISO guys in 09 with HRs:
Matt Holliday: .201/24
Hanley Ramirez: .201/24
Mike Cameron: .202/24
Jermaine Dye: .203/27
Curtis Granderson: .204/30
Briann McCann: .205/21
Johnny Damon: .207/24
Torii Hunter: .208/22
Adam LaRoche: .211/25
Paul Konerko: .212/28
Aaron Hill: .213/36
Dan Uggla: .216/31

So yeah, for the most part it looks like you're thinking 25 to 30HRs?

I'm basically describing a more athletic, less patient Josh Willingham, and apparently that's coming across as Josh Hamilton.

Str1fe5
06-14-2010, 06:58 PM
I dont know. Jones was pretty expensive, but Colvin being under team control isnt that bad. Especially on a team that is busting the seams of its payroll limits.

Getting fringe average production for less than a million per isnt all that bad. Its not ideal especially from a corner OF spot, but I would rather have Colvin plus Uggla than Fukudome plus Fontenot/Baker or something similar for 2011-2012.

Yeah he is not anything to be that excited about or celebrate, but he is certainly something worth caring about. Especially if these power numbers are legit. He could go from Jacque Jones to Alfonso Soriano-lite.

This.

Tehjosha
06-14-2010, 10:50 PM
I was surprised to find out that Colvin played some 1B in HS and also some at Clemson. Didn't know that.

Jilly Bohnson
06-14-2010, 11:26 PM
I was surprised to find out that Colvin played some 1B in HS and also some at Clemson. Didn't know that.

I believe he also played some last year while he rehabbed from his elbow injury.

windycityD
06-15-2010, 12:43 AM
I'd still much rather Soriano lead off than Theriot.

In a line up that's getting nothing from Lee and had been getting nothing from Ramirez, why in God's name is Soriano not hitting clean up, like everyday?

Soriano is not, was really not, and will not again be a lead off hitter.

Mister Marcus
06-15-2010, 01:04 AM
I expect a little razzing for this, but can somone please explainthe significance of the OPS statistic?

Kirel
06-15-2010, 01:09 AM
List of .200-.220ISO guys in 09 with HRs:
Matt Holliday: .201/24
Hanley Ramirez: .201/24
Mike Cameron: .202/24
Jermaine Dye: .203/27
Curtis Granderson: .204/30
Briann McCann: .205/21
Johnny Damon: .207/24
Torii Hunter: .208/22
Adam LaRoche: .211/25
Paul Konerko: .212/28
Aaron Hill: .213/36
Dan Uggla: .216/31

So yeah, for the most part it looks like you're thinking 25 to 30HRs?
What are the plate appearence numbers for that bunch?

IsoP/HR isn't meaningful. We need HR per PA indexed by IsoP.

Captain Obvious
06-15-2010, 01:14 AM
I expect a little razzing for this, but can somone please explainthe significance of the OPS statistic?

OPS measures a players performance with the bat. It is the sum of their OBP and SLG, or OBP + SLG. An average OPS is about .750, but it varies from year to year. Around here, .750 is average though. One of the problems with OPS is that OBP and SLG are equal, which they really aren't. OBP is superior to SLG. Here is a really good article on OPS. (http://www.wisegeek.com/in-baseball-what-is-ops.htm)

Doogolas
06-15-2010, 01:22 AM
What are the plate appearence numbers for that bunch?

IsoP/HR isn't meaningful. We need HR per PA indexed by IsoP.

I feel that I used enough guys that you can guesstimate but the HR/650PA for each is:

Matt Holliday: .201/24/24
Hanley Ramirez: .201/24/24
Mike Cameron: .202/24/25
Jermaine Dye: .203/27/31
Curtis Granderson: .204/30/27
Briann McCann: .205/21/25
Johnny Damon: .207/24/25
Torii Hunter: .208/22/28
Adam LaRoche: .211/25/27
Paul Konerko: .212/28/29
Aaron Hill: .213/36/32
Dan Uggla: .216/31/30

Mean Average: 27.25HR/650PA

So yeah, about a 25 to 30HR guy is what one should expect with a .200 to .220ISO.

Kirel
06-15-2010, 02:08 AM
I feel that I used enough guys that you can guesstimate but the HR/650PA for each is:

Matt Holliday: .201/24/24
Hanley Ramirez: .201/24/24
Mike Cameron: .202/24/25
Jermaine Dye: .203/27/31
Curtis Granderson: .204/30/27
Briann McCann: .205/21/25
Johnny Damon: .207/24/25
Torii Hunter: .208/22/28
Adam LaRoche: .211/25/27
Paul Konerko: .212/28/29
Aaron Hill: .213/36/32
Dan Uggla: .216/31/30

Mean Average: 27.25HR/650PA

So yeah, about a 25 to 30HR guy is what one should expect with a .200 to .220ISO.
Guesstimation is not valid statistics. Its worse yet when you included a catcher and a number of older players in your numbers. Its really weird that so many of those guys are over 30.

Hrmm, eying it I figured itd be a bit higher.

Granted, when I threw out 35 HR I wasn't really thinking .200 to .220 ISOP, I was thinking .more laong the lines of .215-225 IsoP, it's one of the flaws of throwing out an exact number, you may be thinking of it as a cap while someone else may be thinking of it as a floor.

Still, even at 25-30 homers, we're still talking a top 50 power hitter. And at a 10% walk rate and plus glove, a player that is far and away better htan merely "useful".

Jilly complained about people turning Josh Willingham into Josh Hamilton, but Josh Hamliton probably isn't abetter hitter than Willingham, his one high WAR year was driven on managing 704 plate appearences, a full 100 PAs more than Willinghams career high. If Willingham could field he'd be a damn good player, and thats the disconnect here. Willingham in LF putting up a -8 UZR vs Colvin in RF putting up a +6 is a big jump, a win and a half on defense alone. That takes the roughly average 2.3 WAR Willingham and turns him into borderline 4 WAR Willingham. And that's in only about 580 PAs(a mark WIlingham has passed once in his career). As a 650-700 PA top of hte order type hitter Colvin is looking at brushing 5 WAR at hte rates he's claiming.

Jilly is predicting an allstar career for Colvin, not a nice to have while he's cheap type of guy, and I'm not sure I agree with that.

Doogolas
06-15-2010, 02:10 AM
Guesstimation is not valid statistics. Its worse yet when you included a catcher and a number of older players in your numbers. Its really weird that so many of those guys are over 30.

Hrmm, eying it I figured itd be a bit higher.

Granted, when I threw out 35 HR I wasn't really thinking .200 to .220 ISOP, I was thinking .more laong the lines of .215-225 IsoP, it's one of the flaws of throwing out an exact number, you may be thinking of it as a cap while someone else may be thinking of it as a floor.

Still, even at 25-30 homers, we're still talking a top 50 power hitter. And at a 10% walk rate and plus glove, a player that is far and away better htan merely "useful".

Jilly complained about people turning Josh Willingham into Josh Hamilton, but Josh Hamliton probably isn't abetter hitter than Willingham, his one high WAR year was driven on managing 704 plate appearences, a full 100 PAs more than Willinghams career high. If Willingham could field he'd be a damn good player, and thats the disconnect here. Willingham in LF putting up a -8 UZR vs Colvin in RF putting up a +6 is a big jump, a win and a half on defense alone. That takes the roughly average 2.3 WAR Willingham and turns him into borderline 4 WAR Willingham.

Jilly is predicting an allstar career for Colvin, not a nice to have while he's cheap type of guy, and I'm not sure I agree with that.

Jesus mother****ing Christ dude. Not everything has to be exact. I gave you your numbers. 27.25 is the average. Amazingly that's 25 to 30HR like I said originally. Sometimes, believe it or not, guesstimating DOES work.

Not to mention, you ****ing threw out 35HR, you just randomly ****ing threw it out. At least I looked into it. Don't be hypocritical and don't take everything so damn seriously. I wasn't even defending either side, I was just curious so I looked into it.

Sorry if I seem pissed. But Christ man, not everything has to be bazookas and rocket launchers. Just looking at things and logically making an estimation can be acceptable from time to time.

And you know why I included them? because they had a .200 to .220ISO. That's the only qualification here.

As far as Willingham vs Hamilton, Hamilton has had one injury plagued **** season and other than that had a .385wOBA or better. Willingham has had exactly 0 seasons that high. His highest is this season, which is so far at .408 and prior to this his best is .373. So it's a pretty fair leap to go from Willingham to Hamilton.

Jilly Bohnson
06-15-2010, 02:29 AM
Guesstimation is not valid statistics. Its worse yet when you included a catcher and a number of older players in your numbers. Its really weird that so many of those guys are over 30.

Hrmm, eying it I figured itd be a bit higher.

Granted, when I threw out 35 HR I wasn't really thinking .200 to .220 ISOP, I was thinking .more laong the lines of .215-225 IsoP, it's one of the flaws of throwing out an exact number, you may be thinking of it as a cap while someone else may be thinking of it as a floor.

Still, even at 25-30 homers, we're still talking a top 50 power hitter. And at a 10% walk rate and plus glove, a player that is far and away better htan merely "useful".

Jilly complained about people turning Josh Willingham into Josh Hamilton, but Josh Hamliton probably isn't abetter hitter than Willingham, his one high WAR year was driven on managing 704 plate appearences, a full 100 PAs more than Willinghams career high. If Willingham could field he'd be a damn good player, and thats the disconnect here. Willingham in LF putting up a -8 UZR vs Colvin in RF putting up a +6 is a big jump, a win and a half on defense alone. That takes the roughly average 2.3 WAR Willingham and turns him into borderline 4 WAR Willingham. And that's in only about 580 PAs(a mark WIlingham has passed once in his career). As a 650-700 PA top of hte order type hitter Colvin is looking at brushing 5 WAR at hte rates he's claiming.

Jilly is predicting an allstar career for Colvin, not a nice to have while he's cheap type of guy, and I'm not sure I agree with that.

How am I predicting more than maybe a fringe all star? I'm basically predicting a 3-4 win guy, and that's with throwing in the caveat that he fixes his contact issues. The offensive bar I'm setting for him isn't that high. I'm talking about numbers that are a little south of Raul Ibanez or Josh Willingham offensively, so a little less than 15 runs above average. And then as a corner outfielder a few runs above average, so like 3-5. That's a 3 or 3 and a half win guy win player right there. Hardly as crazy as you're making it out to be.

And sue me, I didn't look at Hamilton's numbers that closely and thought he had more to him than flashy triple crown stats.

Doogolas
06-15-2010, 02:48 AM
How am I predicting more than maybe a fringe all star? I'm basically predicting a 3-4 win guy, and that's with throwing in the caveat that he fixes his contact issues. The offensive bar I'm setting for him isn't that high. I'm talking about numbers that are a little south of Raul Ibanez or Josh Willingham offensively, so a little less than 15 runs above average. And then as a corner outfielder a few runs above average, so like 3-5. That's a 3 or 3 and a half win guy win player right there. Hardly as crazy as you're making it out to be.

And sue me, I didn't look at Hamilton's numbers that closely and thought he had more to him than flashy triple crown stats.

He does. He is a much better player than Willingham. Willingham has ONE season over a .365wOBA. Hamilton has 3 and potentially a 4th this year. And was only bad last year because he was hurt.

Kirel
06-15-2010, 03:02 AM
How am I predicting more than maybe a fringe all star? I'm basically predicting a 3-4 win guy, and that's with throwing in the caveat that he fixes his contact issues. The offensive bar I'm setting for him isn't that high. I'm talking about numbers that are a little south of Raul Ibanez or Josh Willingham offensively, so a little less than 15 runs above average. And then as a corner outfielder a few runs above average, so like 3-5. That's a 3 or 3 and a half win guy win player right there. Hardly as crazy as you're making it out to be.

And sue me, I didn't look at Hamilton's numbers that closely and thought he had more to him than flashy triple crown stats.
Thats really my point though, Willingham puts up 18ish runs iwth the bat in a scant 550 plate appearences most seasons. A Colvin with an above average glove, Willinghams bat, and no platoon issues(which could be a chink in his armor if he ends up entirely useless against left handers), probably puts up 625-650 plate appearences if healthy. He fits well in the 2-4 holes, he doesn't need defensive substitutions, probalby gets substituted in more often than a player with a weak glove, and probably plays every day. At 15 runs per 550 PAs we're looking at a 15-20% bump in run production over an additional 75-100 plate appearences.

My math says something akin to roughly 16-18 runs above average with the bat and +3 with the glove, at 20 replacement(I think this is abit low actually, too lazy to figure out what exactly 625-650 PAs is replacment) and -7.5 adjustment we're looking at 3.2 to 3.4 wins. If his glove is closer to +6 we're talking 3.6-3.8 easily. If he manages to be worth about +20 with the bat(entirely possible given additional playtime) and +6 with the glove, we're talking waht, 4.2 or so? Thats what Willingham would be with a glove IMHO. Thats good enough to be the best position player on his team several times in a reasonable length career, which to my mind is an all star player, hell throw in a couple prime year seasons and you've got a guy who's approaching Aramis Ramirez's team value(albeit in more play time than Ramirez has mustered). This is different than a superstar or a hall of fame type player, but substantial none the less.

Personally, my guess is that his bat ends up closer to a +8 to +10 over 550 PAs, putting him closer to 2 to 2.5 wins unless his defense really takes off.

Also while looking over stats for this, Inoticed something. For fun, Raul Ibanez's WAR from 2004 to 2008:
3.0
2.2
3.5
1.0
2.7

Raul Ibanez's WAR with a +3 glove:
2.6
2.6
3.8
3.2
3.8

Ibanez went from an average fielder to a horrible fielder between 2006 and 2007 but has probably been a bit defensively undervalued.

Kirel
06-15-2010, 03:17 AM
He does. He is a much better player than Willingham. Willingham has ONE season over a .365wOBA. Hamilton has 3 and potentially a 4th this year. And was only bad last year because he was hurt.
I had a long reply written out, but I slipped and clicked a link.

It's late, but a few quick points:

WIlinghams non-over .365 wOBA seasons were .363, .364, and .365. Disingenious. And he is also working on a above .365 wOBA season and doing so in a more repeatable manner than Hamilton, evne if you don't care to count it.

wOBA is not park adjusted. wRC+ is and it doesn't show near the difference. Hamilton (132, 135, 92, 147) Willingham(124, 122, 123, 129, 157), both identical 127 career marks.

Hamilton's walk and strikeout rates have been regressing every season. He hits for alot of power but that's all he really does well. At best Hamilton is slighty better, at worst Wilingham is, depending how much faith you put into the exactness of park&league adjustments. It was unfair to call Wilingham a better hitter, but it's equally unfair to characterize Hamilton as a substantially better player. He is not.

Doogolas
06-15-2010, 03:25 AM
I never, ever said that it was below that. That was my point, he's more of a .365 guy than a .380 guy. Hamilton is a .380wOBA guy. And Hamilton has one ****** injury plagued season of 92. That aside, he's at 132, 135 and 147 vs Willingham's career being in the low 120's on average. If Hamilton is indeed the .385wOBA guy he's shown when healthy he's a much stronger hitter than Willingham.

I would say Hamilton is substantially better. You don't have to agree. But unless Willingham is the guy that's shown up so far this year, Hamilton is a fair amount better.

Kirel
06-15-2010, 03:31 AM
I never, ever said that it was below that. That was my point, he's more of a .365 guy than a .380 guy. Hamilton is a .380wOBA guy. And Hamilton has one ****** injury plagued season of 92. That aside, he's at 132, 135 and 147 vs Willingham's career being in the low 120's on average. If Hamilton is indeed the .385wOBA guy he's shown when healthy he's a much stronger hitter than Willingham.

I would say Hamilton is substantially better. You don't have to agree. But unless Willingham is the guy that's shown up so far this year, Hamilton is a fair amount better.
You do realize Hamilton has managed 400 PAs exactly once in his career, right? He's not exactly going out there and playing full seasons. You are arguing that Hamilton is better becuase he has one full season in his career that was better and is playing worse this year but is somehow definatly the guy even though his history shows some real concerns.

That said, I don't consider 132 that much better than 122. It's a bit better, but we are talking 10% at most. It's a small difference that very, very easily can be thrown off by slight variations in park or league adjustments. It's not substantial in the least.

You are ignoring that Willingham put up a 129 wRC+ last season and is beating Hamilton out so far this year. The gap is closer than you think it is.

Not that I would nessecerily take Willingham over Hamilton. Hamilton is younger, but Willingham actually walks and isn't relying on massive power and only massive power to perform. Hamilton does nothing but hit for power. For hte coming 5 years I trust a Willingham over a Hamilton. But in Wrigley for 3 years I probably go Hamilton. In petco willingham wins out every time, Hamilton probalby isn't very good in that park.

Doogolas
06-15-2010, 03:42 AM
You do realize Hamilton has managed 400 PAs exactly once in his career, right? He's not exactly going out there and playing full seasons.

I don't consider 132 that much better than 122. It's a bit better, but we are talking 10% at most, but most likely closer to 6-7%. It's a small difference that very, very easily can be thrown off by slight variations in park or league adjustments. It's not substantial in the least

And you realize that 6-7% doesn't exactly tell the whole story right? Because as you get further from average it becomes MUCH harder to pull away. 6-7% difference from 110 to 120 is far far easier than 6-7% difference from 122 to 132. You're talking about the jump from an .890OPS guy to a guy that's putting up .970 or so. And you can point out that 400PA thing, however, his first season he played some in the minors. He has one complete year, one injured year and then this year. It's not like we're talking about Milton Bradley here.

A healthy Hamilton is worth far more than a healthy Josh Willingham. I mean, a .370wOBA is worth 48.3RAR, by comparison a .385 is worth 57.7RAR. Now as a CF a .385 is worth 60.2RAR and a .370 as a LF/RF is worth 40.8RAR.

That's a 20 run difference in their value with the bat. Josh Hamilton is a lot better than Josh Willingham.

The gap is not closer than I think unless this year holds up. Which it well could. But based on the likely outcome of even a .370wOBA player at the CoF position vs Hamilton putting up .385 at CF, there is a pretty massive gap in production.


EDIT: NOTE: This is at 700PA. Which I'm aware is a bit high, but that's what the spreadsheet I have is set to.

BDawk4Prez
06-15-2010, 10:15 AM
Yeah but Josh Hamilton did lots of coke and has some bad *** tatoos.

Hamilton wins.

Matchstckman
06-15-2010, 10:57 AM
Unrelated but kind of related, here's an article that talks about how underrated Josh Willingham is by showing how overrated Jason Bay is. (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/willingham-and-bay/)

Kirel
06-15-2010, 11:22 AM
And you realize that 6-7% doesn't exactly tell the whole story right? Because as you get further from average it becomes MUCH harder to pull away. 6-7% difference from 110 to 120 is far far easier than 6-7% difference from 122 to 132. You're talking about the jump from an .890OPS guy to a guy that's putting up .970 or so. And you can point out that 400PA thing, however, his first season he played some in the minors. He has one complete year, one injured year and then this year. It's not like we're talking about Milton Bradley here.

A healthy Hamilton is worth far more than a healthy Josh Willingham. I mean, a .370wOBA is worth 48.3RAR, by comparison a .385 is worth 57.7RAR. Now as a CF a .385 is worth 60.2RAR and a .370 as a LF/RF is worth 40.8RAR.

That's a 20 run difference in their value with the bat. Josh Hamilton is a lot better than Josh Willingham.

The gap is not closer than I think unless this year holds up. Which it well could. But based on the likely outcome of even a .370wOBA player at the CoF position vs Hamilton putting up .385 at CF, there is a pretty massive gap in production.


EDIT: NOTE: This is at 700PA. Which I'm aware is a bit high, but that's what the spreadsheet I have is set to.
I"m not sure Hamilton belongs in CF, but thats neither here nor htere, we aren't talking positional value, just raw bat value. Nor are we talking about how "easy" it is to pull away, just the simple fact that the bats are not seperated by all that much, not nearly enough to reliably say that either player is going to be better than the other offensively in any given season.

And again, you need to remember that wOBA IS NOT PARK ADJUSTED. Comparing a guy who has played in Cincinatti and Texas to a guy who has played in Miami and Washington directly is about as unfair as it gets.

And yes Hamilton puts up a higher OPS, and he's a prime example of why OPS is really nothing more than a quick reference and why wOBA exists.

Jilly Bohnson
06-15-2010, 12:37 PM
Thats really my point though, Willingham puts up 18ish runs iwth the bat in a scant 550 plate appearences most seasons. A Colvin with an above average glove, Willinghams bat, and no platoon issues(which could be a chink in his armor if he ends up entirely useless against left handers), probably puts up 625-650 plate appearences if healthy. He fits well in the 2-4 holes, he doesn't need defensive substitutions, probalby gets substituted in more often than a player with a weak glove, and probably plays every day. At 15 runs per 550 PAs we're looking at a 15-20% bump in run production over an additional 75-100 plate appearences.

My math says something akin to roughly 16-18 runs above average with the bat and +3 with the glove, at 20 replacement(I think this is abit low actually, too lazy to figure out what exactly 625-650 PAs is replacment) and -7.5 adjustment we're looking at 3.2 to 3.4 wins. If his glove is closer to +6 we're talking 3.6-3.8 easily. If he manages to be worth about +20 with the bat(entirely possible given additional playtime) and +6 with the glove, we're talking waht, 4.2 or so? Thats what Willingham would be with a glove IMHO. Thats good enough to be the best position player on his team several times in a reasonable length career, which to my mind is an all star player, hell throw in a couple prime year seasons and you've got a guy who's approaching Aramis Ramirez's team value(albeit in more play time than Ramirez has mustered). This is different than a superstar or a hall of fame type player, but substantial none the less.

Personally, my guess is that his bat ends up closer to a +8 to +10 over 550 PAs, putting him closer to 2 to 2.5 wins unless his defense really takes off.

Also while looking over stats for this, Inoticed something. For fun, Raul Ibanez's WAR from 2004 to 2008:
3.0
2.2
3.5
1.0
2.7

Raul Ibanez's WAR with a +3 glove:
2.6
2.6
3.8
3.2
3.8

Ibanez went from an average fielder to a horrible fielder between 2006 and 2007 but has probably been a bit defensively undervalued.

That's because Willingham has a career OBP of nearly .370. You're latching way too much onto the Willingham comp and ignoring the fact taht I said Colvin wouldn't walk as much. I don't really know how to convert AVG/OBP/SLG into wOBA and then into runs created, but if I did I'm pretty sure the 30-40 points of OBP that Willinham has on top of hypothetical Colvin knock those runs above average from that 18 area to 15 or maybe lower. Someone can run the math for me or just correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think that .270/.340/.480 or .290/.330/.500 over 600 PA's(I always use 600 PA's to get a nice +20 replacement) is more than about +15, or at least if it is not by more than a run or so. And Colvin is at the moment a good defender, acceptable for CF and very good in the corners. But he's only got another year or two of that probably, he's always a guy that was supposed to either stay small and stay in CF or bulk up and move to a corner, and it appears he's chosen the bulk up route. At that point he'll probably be a few runs above average defensively, probably under 5 though.

The picture I'm painting is a solid 3 win guy. You're bringing up things like career years or getting 700 plate appearances or other things that don't really matter and which don't have any bearing on what I've said.

poodski
06-15-2010, 01:01 PM
(OBP*2+SLG)/3 will give you close enough to wOBA

[wOBA-(league average wOBA)]/1.15*PA=wRAA

Kirel
06-15-2010, 01:13 PM
That's because Willingham has a career OBP of nearly .370. You're latching way too much onto the Willingham comp and ignoring the fact taht I said Colvin wouldn't walk as much. I don't really know how to convert AVG/OBP/SLG into wOBA and then into runs created, but if I did I'm pretty sure the 30-40 points of OBP that Willinham has on top of hypothetical Colvin knock those runs above average from that 18 area to 15 or maybe lower. Someone can run the math for me or just correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think that .270/.340/.480 or .290/.330/.500 over 600 PA's(I always use 600 PA's to get a nice +20 replacement) is more than about +15, or at least if it is not by more than a run or so. And Colvin is at the moment a good defender, acceptable for CF and very good in the corners. But he's only got another year or two of that probably, he's always a guy that was supposed to either stay small and stay in CF or bulk up and move to a corner, and it appears he's chosen the bulk up route. At that point he'll probably be a few runs above average defensively, probably under 5 though.

The picture I'm painting is a solid 3 win guy. You're bringing up things like career years or getting 700 plate appearances or other things that don't really matter and which don't have any bearing on what I've said.
Fair enough, this is why I don't like comps, too many variables. "Won't walk as much" can be anything from 1-2% less to the half as often that Hamilton walks(literally, Hamiltons walk rates have been about 6.5 the last few years to WIlinghams 12)

I'm just not sold +15 is reasonable. I don't think the OBP will be high enough even if he manages to maintain his power.

Kirel
06-15-2010, 01:21 PM
(OBP*2+SLG)/3 will give you close enough to wOBA

[wOBA-(league average wOBA)]/1.15*PA=wRAA
(OBP*2+SLG)/3 is missing pretty widely on wOBA for comparisons sake.

Lance Berkman had a .386 wOBA last season per fangraphs, but using the estimator I"m getting .435. Colvin estimates at a .386 but he's clearly well behind Berkman in reality. I'm gonna guess that (OBP*2+SLG)/3 - .040 is probably closer to right. Atleast in this narrow range.

poodski
06-15-2010, 01:44 PM
(OBP*2+SLG)/3 is missing pretty widely on wOBA for comparisons sake.

Lance Berkman had a .386 wOBA last season per fangraphs, but using the estimator I"m getting .435. Colvin estimates at a .386 but he's clearly well behind Berkman in reality. I'm gonna guess that (OBP*2+SLG)/3 - .040 is probably closer to right. Atleast in this narrow range.

yeah its supposed to be minus 35.

my bad.

Doogolas
06-15-2010, 03:57 PM
No you're supposed to minus 30 not 35. But it's basically the same thing. And to convert it to RAR there's a spreadsheet:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ApDc5PGsBzgVdF9mYmVueEZBeXdwaDlmeUNkdVB0N Xc&hl=en

windycityD
06-16-2010, 11:19 AM
Though I admit it's highly qualitative, here's another stat that counts: name the last time we brought up an OF from our system that hit from the left side, had the appearance & potential of 20-30 HR power, and actually worked out at this level. Pie and Patterson surely did not. I guess my point is, in some decade, good scouting and development are well, kinda critical to long-term growth.

The flip side of the Colvin debate is that unlike the Pie "opportunity," you actually have to get around to giving a young player a shot at consistent playing time while they still fail at times. Let him play or flip him now while his value is up. There is no middle ground that really works for him or us.

Doogolas
06-16-2010, 01:43 PM
Though I admit it's highly qualitative, here's another stat that counts: name the last time we brought up an OF from our system that hit from the left side, had the appearance & potential of 20-30 HR power, and actually worked out at this level. Pie and Patterson surely did not. I guess my point is, in some decade, good scouting and development are well, kinda critical to long-term growth.

The flip side of the Colvin debate is that unlike the Pie "opportunity," you actually have to get around to giving a young player a shot at consistent playing time while they still fail at times. Let him play or flip him now while his value is up. There is no middle ground that really works for him or us.

This really has no meaning. It has nothing at all to do with his ability.

windycityD
06-16-2010, 02:32 PM
This really has no meaning. It has nothing at all to do with his ability.

Nor does the current sample size of Colvin's ABs, or these guesstimates dressed up as near iron-clad projections. Outside of his K rate/ %, what do we really know with these few ABs?

Without at least 500 ABs, you don't have a sample. You have guesstimates dressed up as projections nearing a sample.

johnlh
06-16-2010, 02:56 PM
According to Paul Sullivan of The Chicago Tribune.





[Tyler Colvin is back in the lineup tonight against Gavin Floyd, taking the place of Kosuke Fukudome, and it looks like he's there to stay.

"He deserves an opportunity," manager Lou Piniella said. "We brought him along, he's waited his time."

Of course, Piniella has said that numerous times this season, only to sit Colvin again in a day or two. But Piniella told AOL Fanhouse after Saturday's game that he told Colvin he would play "every day."

Piniella said Sunday he hadn't spoken to Colvin, though AOL Fanhouse reporter John Hickey said he quoted Piniella accurately.

"What I said basically was that we're going to play him more, and we are," Piniella said.

What's the difference this time?

"Look, put it this way, he's going to play a lot more than he has been," he said. "We've been patient, you know? I said all along that when the time was right we were going to make this type of move, and the time is getting real right."

So right field is Colvin's now?

"Let's just decipher this," he said. "We want to see this kid in the lineup more."

Steve Stone was not at the ballpark for comment, though he was the recipient of Piniella's wrath on Friday's for suggesting Colvin needs to play more. ]


If this is true that would mean that the cubs have a 12 million a year bench player In Fukudome, isn't that great. so who has a thought on this. Do you think Colvin should be the starter.

Very clearly Colvin is our RF now and for the future. He could develop into a bonifide all star. Fukodome's days are numbered. We are set in CF for the next three years with a very good player. How we deal with Soriano I have no clue. Lee is nearing the end of his career with the Cubs. I love the guy but youth must be served. We have no one ready in our system for first base. We will have to acquire one through FA or trade. We have a strong farm system in pitching and could acquire a good first baseman through a trade. We have a 3rd baseman on his way but not just yet. We must hope and pray he recovers from what ever has happened to him. He is still young, has power, a good fielder, and has several years on a $17 mil a year contract. His history says he will come back. Our catchers are satisfactory. Our highly touted SS is still a work in progress. Our second baseman leads the league in singles, a smooth fielder, and leads our team in stolen bases. He hits around .280 - .290. Personally I would like either a speed merchant or a guy with more power. Where you find a guy like this I do not know. A guy like Juan Pierre only younger would do wonders for our slow team. We have very good pitching. People talk about getting rid of Lillly. That would be totally foolish as he is our best LH pitcher. Big Z remains a mystery. Our new 8-1 acquisition seems like a keeper to me. He has found himself and is a strike throwing machine who could have a nice career with the Cubs. Marshall is a godsend. He could start, setup, or even be a closer. Marmol is almost un-hittable if he can control the ball. Averaging 2 Ks per inning. That is unbelievable. He has a weird delivery and wild enough to scare batters. Sort of like a Mitch Williams. Our back-end of our starter has some young up and coming good guys. Pitching will be no problem I like Lou but a change is in order. He looks tired and worn out. Cannot blame him but that is contagious. Probably Sandberg is going to be our next Manager. He was a hall of fame player. I have no idea of what kind of manger he will be. He surely has been on the fast track and being groomed as the next manager. Jim Hendry has made some great deals and some horrible deals. Who knows what the Ricketts will decide to do with Jim. I think I would keep him but hold back on any 7 year big dollar deals like Soriano. Silva deal was enormous. Lee and Aram were great. Byrd acquisition was one of the best in recent memory so Hendry is still a viable GM. I think Fuko will be gone by the end of July. The most important thing in my mind for the rest of the season is to get Aram back on track. We are not going to pass St Louis or the Reds. What the new owners do will be a tell tell sign of what kind of owners they are. I have a good feeling about them. Win or lose our Cubs fans fill Wrigley and we remain sort of a legend ourselves.

thawv
06-16-2010, 03:21 PM
In 2011, Fukudome will be our primary lead off hitter. I say this because:

1) I don't think we can move his contract
2) His OBP justifies that
3) Lou wont be here

Let's face it, The Riot has pretty much had that role for a while now under Lou & post Soriano being moved out of the lead off spot. Two lead off hitters in a row that made no sense hitting lead off.

If we still have ***, he should lead off. He is the obvious choice. Theriot's OBA of .318 is just pathetic for any spot in the order, yet alone leadoff. He's the perfect #8 hitter. He would bat before the pitcher so he won't get a lot to hit. That suites him well as he doesn't swing at very many bad pitches. He may be forced to take some walks to get to the pitcher and turn the order over. Also, having an OBA higher than his SLG is virtually unheard of! Believe it or not, he did it in 2008. Unbelievable feat.

I'd move Theriot as soon as I had a taker. He's not a good base runner, he has a little league arm. Thank God he's back at his natural position, as that throw across the infield was painful to watch. He can't get around on even an average fastball, which is why he is always hitting the ball the the right. It's one dribbler, or bouncer, or roller after the other. Just drive the ball! Anything we can get for him would be nice. Either that, or he becomes a bench player, which is what he truly is.

windycityD
06-16-2010, 04:46 PM
If we still have ***, he should lead off. He is the obvious choice. Theriot's OBA of .318 is just pathetic for any spot in the order, yet alone leadoff. He's the perfect #8 hitter. He would bat before the pitcher so he won't get a lot to hit. That suites him well as he doesn't swing at very many bad pitches. He may be forced to take some walks to get to the pitcher and turn the order over. Also, having an OBA higher than his SLG is virtually unheard of! Believe it or not, he did it in 2008. Unbelievable feat.

I'd move Theriot as soon as I had a taker. He's not a good base runner, he has a little league arm. Thank God he's back at his natural position, as that throw across the infield was painful to watch. He can't get around on even an average fastball, which is why he is always hitting the ball the the right. It's one dribbler, or bouncer, or roller after the other. Just drive the ball! Anything we can get for him would be nice. Either that, or he becomes a bench player, which is what he truly is.

Theriot wont be a Cub in 2011. I'm 99.9 percent sure on that one. His trade value this season, mono e mono, is not stellar. In a package deal w/ pitching, sure. As far as his hitting to RF, take a look at his charts since 2007. Him hitting to RF is not a bad thing when that side of the diamond is opened up, nor is it uncommon for RT.

Quite frankly, several of Castro's throws across the diamond have been lacking, low, and/ or off target. He needs to learn the position more and also would benefit from Winter Ball. Hitting and OBP wise, he's falling like a stone, which is to be expected.

I think Fukudome will be a Cub in 2011 and will be the primary lead off guy. And talk about another guy who could benefit from Winter Ball.

thawv
06-16-2010, 08:33 PM
Theriot wont be a Cub in 2011. I'm 99.9 percent sure on that one. His trade value this season, mono e mono, is not stellar. In a package deal w/ pitching, sure. As far as his hitting to RF, take a look at his charts since 2007. Him hitting to RF is not a bad thing when that side of the diamond is opened up, nor is it uncommon for RT.

Quite frankly, several of Castro's throws across the diamond have been lacking, low, and/ or off target. He needs to learn the position more and also would benefit from Winter Ball. Hitting and OBP wise, he's falling like a stone, which is to be expected.

I think Fukudome will be a Cub in 2011 and will be the primary lead off guy. And talk about another guy who could benefit from Winter Ball.

Man, I hope you're right about Theriot not being here next year. I don't think we can get much for him either. Especially since he got a 600% raise this year. I agree that he is effective hitting to right. But I believe it's only because he can't pull the ball or drive it into the gaps very often.

Castro's arm is 10 times stronger than Theriots. Castro's problem is he gets lazy with his throws. He'll improve with that, no doubt. Fukudome will probably be our lead off hitter next year..........and like I said earlier, he should be this year. And yes..........Winter ball would not hurt him one bit.

windycityD
06-17-2010, 08:30 AM
Man, I hope you're right about Theriot not being here next year. I don't think we can get much for him either. Especially since he got a 600% raise this year. I agree that he is effective hitting to right. But I believe it's only because he can't pull the ball or drive it into the gaps very often.

Castro's arm is 10 times stronger than Theriots. Castro's problem is he gets lazy with his throws. He'll improve with that, no doubt. Fukudome will probably be our lead off hitter next year..........and like I said earlier, he should be this year. And yes..........Winter ball would not hurt him one bit.

Fukudome needs to be able to somehow hit left handed pitching, whether it's slap hits or even some slug or drag bunting. Hence why I think winter ball would be good for him. Of course, it wont ever happen. It would be a total waste to have Byrd platooning leading off in 2011, especially since Byrd's OBP is not all that great when you look at his career numbers and he does K a fair deal.

My thinking on Theriot & 2011 is money related. At 2b, we'll either go cheaper w/ a platoon or overspend & really upgrade. If we go the former route, I would not be surprised to see Fontenot and Baker at 2b. Another guy in our system that we need to turn the corner between now and mid 2011 is Ryan Flaherty. It would be a total boon (and long-shot) to have this kid ready in 2012 to take over 2b. He didn't have a lot of ABs at Tennessee, but he did struggle at AA. You could say the same for Chris Archer, 2012, and the rotation. Both are doing fine at Daytona, but the next step is a big one for them and us.

thawv
06-17-2010, 04:48 PM
Fukudome needs to be able to somehow hit left handed pitching, whether it's slap hits or even some slug or drag bunting. Hence why I think winter ball would be good for him. Of course, it wont ever happen. It would be a total waste to have Byrd platooning leading off in 2011, especially since Byrd's OBP is not all that great when you look at his career numbers and he does K a fair deal.

My thinking on Theriot & 2011 is money related. At 2b, we'll either go cheaper w/ a platoon or overspend & really upgrade. If we go the former route, I would not be surprised to see Fontenot and Baker at 2b. Another guy in our system that we need to turn the corner between now and mid 2011 is Ryan Flaherty. It would be a total boon (and long-shot) to have this kid ready in 2012 to take over 2b. He didn't have a lot of ABs at Tennessee, but he did struggle at AA. You could say the same for Chris Archer, 2012, and the rotation. Both are doing fine at Daytona, but the next step is a big one for them and us.

Flaherty looks like the only legit guy that can crack this team. He better start making some noise quickly as the guys up now are clearly not the answer. He'll be 24 next month, so time is not on his side as he should probably be waiting for the call at his age. Something tells me that the club doesn't think he's the answer either.

I have no problem platooning Fuke in right for his last year. But it doesn't look like we have a RF'er in the system even remotely ready to play in the bigs. If we can somehow move Fuke, Colvin can step in and get his at bats. He keeps his front shoulder in against lefties as good as any good hitting lefty in the league.

Doogolas
06-17-2010, 04:50 PM
Stupid PSD and pages not working.

Doogolas
06-17-2010, 04:51 PM
Flaherty looks like the only legit guy that can crack this team. He better start making some noise quickly as the guys up now are clearly not the answer. He'll be 24 next month, so time is not on his side as he should probably be waiting for the call at his age. Something tells me that the club doesn't think he's the answer either.

I have no problem platooning Fuke in right for his last year. But it doesn't look like we have a RF'er in the system even remotely ready to play in the bigs. If we can somehow move Fuke, Colvin can step in and get his at bats. He keeps his front shoulder in against lefties as good as any good hitting lefty in the league.

Really? You're basing this off what? His 30PA's, maybe, against LHP?

thawv
06-17-2010, 05:30 PM
Really? You're basing this off what? His 30PA's, maybe, against LHP?

I'm assuming you're referring to Colvin.

I'd like to think that if in his first 30 AB's against lefties, he can keep that shoulder in, he is always going to do it. As a matter of fact, he'll get better at it.

Clearly you're not a Colvin fan. Or at least not sold on him. That's OK. Either way, I'm not going to take the bait.


:)

windycityD
06-17-2010, 08:13 PM
Flaherty looks like the only legit guy that can crack this team. He better start making some noise quickly as the guys up now are clearly not the answer. He'll be 24 next month, so time is not on his side as he should probably be waiting for the call at his age. Something tells me that the club doesn't think he's the answer either.

I have no problem platooning Fuke in right for his last year. But it doesn't look like we have a RF'er in the system even remotely ready to play in the bigs. If we can somehow move Fuke, Colvin can step in and get his at bats. He keeps his front shoulder in against lefties as good as any good hitting lefty in the league.

Tony Thomas is ahead of Flaherty technically, and Scales ahead of Thomas. Theriot and Fontenot did not really surface at this level until their latter 20s, so there is some degree of time to pass by here before the ship sails on Flaherty.

Eh, Colvin's got a lot of work to do yet vs lefties. He's another position player who should be playing winter ball for us.

Doogolas
06-17-2010, 09:11 PM
I'm assuming you're referring to Colvin.

I'd like to think that if in his first 30 AB's against lefties, he can keep that shoulder in, he is always going to do it. As a matter of fact, he'll get better at it.

Clearly you're not a Colvin fan. Or at least not sold on him. That's OK. Either way, I'm not going to take the bait.


:)

Actually, I love the kid. But basing anything on 30AB's is crazy. There could be certain ways to pitch him that they haven't found from lefties that make him open up early. There is no advanced scouting report on him vs LHP yet.

thawv
06-17-2010, 09:40 PM
Tony Thomas is ahead of Flaherty technically, and Scales ahead of Thomas. Theriot and Fontenot did not really surface at this level until their latter 20s, so there is some degree of time to pass by here before the ship sails on Flaherty.

Eh, Colvin's got a lot of work to do yet vs lefties. He's another position player who should be playing winter ball for us.

How bad is our 2B situation when Bobby Scales, who by the way is not good enough to be a full time major league player.........is next in line. Yikes!

I forgot to touch on the Theriot, Fontenot thing. You are right about how late they surfaced in the big leagues. But at their late age joining the bigs, this is the type of player that you can expect. Mediocre! I for one am sick and tired of mediocrity with this team. I would love to see some real stars produced by the Cubs on a consistent basis.

WOwolfOL
06-27-2010, 05:26 PM
Another homer off a lefty (and a damn good one)

So Colvin now has 10 homers in 150 PA, 2nd on the team to Soriano's 11... in 260+ PA

Gotdamn!

redwhitenblue
06-27-2010, 05:36 PM
I'm interested to see how he handles going to the opposite field. I can't recall any HR's that weren't dead pulled. I hope they're preparing for the inevitable adjustment he'll have to make going to left-center and centerfield. If they prepare for that adjustment, hopefully a drought wouldn't last too long.

poodski
06-27-2010, 05:51 PM
I'm interested to see how he handles going to the opposite field. I can't recall any HR's that weren't dead pulled. I hope they're preparing for the inevitable adjustment he'll have to make going to left-center and centerfield. If they prepare for that adjustment, hopefully a drought wouldn't last too long.

He has two to CF thus far, but yeah he looks to be a direct pull hitter.

89.6% of his hit balls are either pulled or to CF.

Even someone like Ryan Howard hits the ball the other way more often.

Probably too small of a sample though to make any sort of judgement.

Captain Obvious
06-27-2010, 05:53 PM
I'm interested to see how he handles going to the opposite field. I can't recall any HR's that weren't dead pulled. I hope they're preparing for the inevitable adjustment he'll have to make going to left-center and centerfield. If they prepare for that adjustment, hopefully a drought wouldn't last too long.

Colvin has a total of 3 hits to LF this year. He really needs to make an improvement on that, or else we are going to see a huge drought.

redwhitenblue
06-27-2010, 05:57 PM
Colvin has a total of 3 hits to LF this year. He really needs to make an improvement on that, or else we are going to see a huge drought.
They should start preparing that now.

Captain Obvious
06-27-2010, 06:02 PM
They should start preparing that now.

You're right they should, because it is like you have been saying a lot lately, they can do about anything with preparation. But, it's the Cubs, so I'm not gonna hold my breath.

Doogolas
06-27-2010, 08:08 PM
He has two to CF thus far, but yeah he looks to be a direct pull hitter.

89.6% of his hit balls are either pulled or to CF.

Even someone like Ryan Howard hits the ball the other way more often.

Probably too small of a sample though to make any sort of judgement.

Well that's only because almost ALL of Ryan Howard's home runs are to his opposite field. His Balls in Play are almost all to his pull field.

Cubs420
06-27-2010, 08:25 PM
They should start preparing that now.

According to some Colvin should have gone cold weeks ago... Just saying

Captain Obvious
06-27-2010, 08:33 PM
According to some Colvin should have gone cold weeks ago... Just saying

According to some, Ryan Theriot is a HOFer... Just saying

poodski
06-27-2010, 08:36 PM
According to some, Ryan Theriot is a HOFer... Just saying

Well thats incorrect.

toovey107
06-27-2010, 08:38 PM
Well thats incorrect.
:laugh2:

windycityD
06-27-2010, 10:28 PM
He has two to CF thus far, but yeah he looks to be a direct pull hitter.

89.6% of his hit balls are either pulled or to CF.

Even someone like Ryan Howard hits the ball the other way more often.

Probably too small of a sample though to make any sort of judgement.

The sample size is too small (sub 500 ABs), but the swing is indicative of potential troubles ahead. Good lefties are going to start working him down and away & up and away more and more. If he adjusts to that and hits the other way, we are on to something here w/ Colvin. He clearly has power to RF, and at times, a really good eye up there. He also needs to work on that OBP.

Sasuke11
06-27-2010, 10:52 PM
Fukudome needs to be able to somehow hit left handed pitching, whether it's slap hits or even some slug or drag bunting. Hence why I think winter ball would be good for him. Of course, it wont ever happen. It would be a total waste to have Byrd platooning leading off in 2011, especially since Byrd's OBP is not all that great when you look at his career numbers and he does K a fair deal.

My thinking on Theriot & 2011 is money related. At 2b, we'll either go cheaper w/ a platoon or overspend & really upgrade. If we go the former route, I would not be surprised to see Fontenot and Baker at 2b. Another guy in our system that we need to turn the corner between now and mid 2011 is Ryan Flaherty. It would be a total boon (and long-shot) to have this kid ready in 2012 to take over 2b. He didn't have a lot of ABs at Tennessee, but he did struggle at AA. You could say the same for Chris Archer, 2012, and the rotation. Both are doing fine at Daytona, but the next step is a big one for them and us.

See the bold is where you went completely ignorant. If anyone has paid any ****ing attention to Fukes they will have noticed he has actually hit off of some tough lefties this year. He had a run scoring hit off of Johan earlier this year - I specifically remember this because of the fact it was against a lefty as well as the only run off of Johan that night, not bad for someone who came in as a pinch hitter.... Also one of his home runs (he might have had one more) came off of Bastardo of the Phillies. His ERA sucks but hitters are only hitting .140 off him this year. He can hit against lefties - no one in America has shown any type of faith in him.

Once again I will point out - LOOK AT HIS JAPANESE STATS! For what it is worth Kosuke took 3 years in Japan to get his s.h-it together as well. I know people might not care, but at least it is something, and fu.c-k next year will be his 4th so maybe he will bust out big....unless Lou finally gives him consistent playing time this year.

We should shop Colvin he blows in RF and anyone that tries to defend him clearly forgot his inning a couple weeks ago with 2 errors. (I know I could make a stronger case about Colvin, but I'm running on little sleep this past 2 weeks or so due to work).

yuns554
06-27-2010, 10:54 PM
According to some, Ryan Theriot is a HOFer... Just saying

And name someone who has said that....stop making crap up

yuns554
06-27-2010, 10:57 PM
See the bold is where you went completely ignorant. If anyone has paid any ****ing attention to Fukes they will have noticed he has actually hit off of some tough lefties this year. He had a run scoring hit off of Johan earlier this year - I specifically remember this because of the fact it was against a lefty as well as the only run off of Johan that night, not bad for someone who came in as a pinch hitter.... Also one of his home runs (he might have had one more) came off of Bastardo of the Phillies. His ERA sucks but hitters are only hitting .140 off him this year. He can hit against lefties - no one in America has shown any type of faith in him.

Once again I will point out - LOOK AT HIS JAPANESE STATS! For what it is worth Kosuke took 3 years in Japan to get his s.h-it together as well. I know people might not care, but at least it is something, and fu.c-k next year will be his 4th so maybe he will bust out big....unless Lou finally gives him consistent playing time this year.

We should shop Colvin he blows in RF and anyone that tries to defend him clearly forgot his inning a couple weeks ago with 2 errors. (I know I could make a stronger case about Colvin, but I'm running on little sleep this past 2 weeks or so due to work).

Yea we should trade Starlin too, he has a bunch of errors what an awful player.

Sasuke11
06-27-2010, 10:59 PM
Yea we should trade Starlin too, he has a bunch of errors what an awful player.

:facepalm:

Captain Obvious
06-27-2010, 11:06 PM
See the bold is where you went completely ignorant. If anyone has paid any ****ing attention to Fukes they will have noticed he has actually hit off of some tough lefties this year. He had a run scoring hit off of Johan earlier this year - I specifically remember this because of the fact it was against a lefty as well as the only run off of Johan that night, not bad for someone who came in as a pinch hitter.... Also one of his home runs (he might have had one more) came off of Bastardo of the Phillies. His ERA sucks but hitters are only hitting .140 off him this year. He can hit against lefties - no one in America has shown any type of faith in him.

Once again I will point out - LOOK AT HIS JAPANESE STATS! For what it is worth Kosuke took 3 years in Japan to get his s.h-it together as well. I know people might not care, but at least it is something, and fu.c-k next year will be his 4th so maybe he will bust out big....unless Lou finally gives him consistent playing time this year.

We should shop Colvin he blows in RF and anyone that tries to defend him clearly forgot his inning a couple weeks ago with 2 errors. (I know I could make a stronger case about Colvin, but I'm running on little sleep this past 2 weeks or so due to work).

Yeah, you're right, Fuke is a beast against lefties. He's OPSing 674 against them for his career! What were we thinking?!

And name someone who has said that....stop making crap up

You are telling me that out of the millions of ignorant Cub fans in the world, that there isn't at least a couple that think he will be a HOFer? Have you seen some of the ignorant posters on here?

Captain Obvious
06-27-2010, 11:08 PM
:facepalm:

He has a point. And Colvin doesn't suck at all in RF. He has a UZR of 3.0, and a UZR/150 of 48.9.

gocubs2118
06-27-2010, 11:12 PM
Ugh, pointing out that someone sucks at a position because of one game is just flat out dumb. Its like the people who thinks Uggla sucks at second because of the 3 errors he had during the All Star game at Yankee stadium.

Str1fe5
06-27-2010, 11:12 PM
Yeah, you're right, Fuke is a beast against lefties. He's OPSing 674 against them for his career! What were we thinking?!


You are telling me that out of the millions of ignorant Cub fans in the world, that there isn't at least a couple that think he will be a HOFer? Have you seen some of the ignorant posters on here?

Well to be fair to Fukudome, he hasn't hit against LHP regularly since about July of his rookie season, so while his OPS is low its been because of sporadic PA against LHP. Sasuke has a point - Fuku didn't have a platoon problem in Japan at all. I think Colvin should get plenty of PT this year to see if he actually is a potential future RF because this season is lost, but I think its a tough call to say that Fuku has a real major platoon split in terms of true talent.

Doogolas
06-27-2010, 11:14 PM
Ugh, pointing out that someone sucks at a position because of one game is just flat out dumb. Its like the people who thinks Uggla sucks at second because of the 3 errors he had during the All Star game at Yankee stadium.

Uggla is bad at 2B though. -3.5UZR/150 for his career.

Str1fe5
06-27-2010, 11:15 PM
Uggla is bad at 2B though. -3.5UZR/150 for his career.

-3.5/150 isn't bad, its below average. And slightly below average at that.

Mell413
06-27-2010, 11:18 PM
I shouldn't speak for him, but I think the point he was trying to make is that people shouldn't make too much out of too little.

1908_Cubs
06-27-2010, 11:19 PM
Uggla is bad at 2B though. -3.5UZR/150 for his career.

That's not bad. Below average? Certainly. Bad is like, -8 or something. But a -3.5 UZR/150 is quite acceptable with his offense. His numbers fluctuate pretty badly, too. He's either just awful or slightly above average. But overall, he's actually not bad there in the least.

gocubs2118
06-27-2010, 11:22 PM
Uggla is bad at 2B though. -3.5UZR/150 for his career.

Like others have said, he isn't bad. Just not very good.

Captain Obvious
06-27-2010, 11:23 PM
Well to be fair to Fukudome, he hasn't hit against LHP regularly since about July of his rookie season, so while his OPS is low its been because of sporadic PA against LHP. Sasuke has a point - Fuku didn't have a platoon problem in Japan at all. I think Colvin should get plenty of PT this year to see if he actually is a potential future RF because this season is lost, but I think its a tough call to say that Fuku has a real major platoon split in terms of true talent.

Okay, but in 207 PA as a starter vs. LHP, he is OPSing .657. So, I really don't think that he will turn anything around. Plus, Japanese LHP isn't the same as MLB LHP.

Doogolas
06-28-2010, 03:51 AM
Like others have said, he isn't bad. Just not very good.

No. -3.5UZR/150 is bad. It's not awful and with the way his bat is, it's certainly acceptable. But he is a bad 2B defensively.

Milnertime
06-28-2010, 04:41 AM
No. -3.5UZR/150 is bad. It's not awful and with the way his bat is, it's certainly acceptable. But he is a bad 2B defensively.
3.5 runs is not bad. It's just below average, especially when you consider there is a certain amount of an error margin associated with UZR.

He could easily be worse than that, or better.

Doogolas
06-28-2010, 04:47 AM
3.5 runs is not bad. It's just below average, especially when you consider there is a certain amount of an error margin associated with UZR.

He could easily be worse than that, or better.

I disagree. Even just looking at his numbers year by year. He's had one good year and a neutral year and two years of absolute ***. I think he's a bad defender.

Milnertime
06-28-2010, 04:58 AM
I disagree. Even just looking at his numbers year by year. He's had one good year and a neutral year and two years of absolute ***. I think he's a bad defender.
Ok. Fair enough.

Just as long as we can all agree that opinion is not fact.

Doogolas
06-28-2010, 05:09 AM
Ok. Fair enough.

Just as long as we can all agree that opinion is not fact.

Well of course it's not. I was more saying he's not a good fielder. And he might get a slightly worse rep than he deserves, but it's not unfounded and JUST based on that one game.

poodski
06-28-2010, 08:12 AM
You are telling me that out of the millions of ignorant Cub fans in the world, that there isn't at least a couple that think he will be a HOFer? Have you seen some of the ignorant posters on here?

I don't think anyone in the world thinks Ryan Theriot is a future HOF'er. You said there are people, and I want to see where there is one.

windycityD
06-28-2010, 08:56 AM
See the bold is where you went completely ignorant. If anyone has paid any ****ing attention to Fukes they will have noticed he has actually hit off of some tough lefties this year. He had a run scoring hit off of Johan earlier this year - I specifically remember this because of the fact it was against a lefty as well as the only run off of Johan that night, not bad for someone who came in as a pinch hitter.... Also one of his home runs (he might have had one more) came off of Bastardo of the Phillies. His ERA sucks but hitters are only hitting .140 off him this year. He can hit against lefties - no one in America has shown any type of faith in him.

Once again I will point out - LOOK AT HIS JAPANESE STATS! For what it is worth Kosuke took 3 years in Japan to get his s.h-it together as well. I know people might not care, but at least it is something, and fu.c-k next year will be his 4th so maybe he will bust out big....unless Lou finally gives him consistent playing time this year.

We should shop Colvin he blows in RF and anyone that tries to defend him clearly forgot his inning a couple weeks ago with 2 errors. (I know I could make a stronger case about Colvin, but I'm running on little sleep this past 2 weeks or so due to work).

See the plain, lower case text here where I tell you to go look at his career numbers vs. lefties. Or are you too ignorant in a full picture kinda way? This is not Japan/ the Pacific Rim, it's mlb. This also isn't a cherry picked sample size either. The guy has had issues vs. lefties here in USA, Earth. The off-set for that, when he's not turning into a human tornado while K ing, is that his career OBP is solid. On a team that has little of that, his real, legit value is...leading off. We're also talking about a guy who wont ever hit more than 15 HRs. Colvin is on pace to hit 25 this season and is doing this at a fairly astounding rate considering his PAs, which have only gone up and been more consistent in what, the last two weeks?

Colvin at 1b, post Lee dealt this season, and in 2011 would be absolutely fine by me. Fukudome in RF in 2011 would be equally fine by me. Fukudome is not a problem. How he has been used/ not used has been. The guy that needs to go away is Derek Lee. That will happen next month.

windycityD
06-28-2010, 08:59 AM
I don't think anyone in the world thinks Ryan Theriot is a future HOF'er. You said there are people, and I want to see where there is one.

I think he's the greatest middle IF. Ever. Neifi Perez is a real close second.

poodski
06-28-2010, 09:01 AM
I stand corrected.

windycityD
06-28-2010, 09:04 AM
No. -3.5UZR/150 is bad. It's not awful and with the way his bat is, it's certainly acceptable. But he is a bad 2B defensively.

Take away Uggla's power and he's a crap 2b defensively. On a team that needs, oh I don't know, better defense, there ya go.

Dunn (1b) is the bat that will be signed if Ricketts allows the next GM to do up another big FA contract. I'm beyond certain of this since he fits the left handed, power bat, run producing player we're supposedly (still) in search of. His contract will also blow massive chunks. His defense at 1b would also be eh.

redwhitenblue
06-28-2010, 03:06 PM
According to some Colvin should have gone cold weeks ago... Just saying
Not really. He only started getting any type of regular AB's a few weeks ago-and even now it's still sporadic.



And, in case you haven't noticed, he's starting to hit like a lot of us told you he would. A .318 OBP since he started getting full-time AB's this month. A lot less walks, his SLG is saving him right now but if pitchers start dealing him away and breaking balls in, that SLG is probably going to drop.

cowboydoc45
06-28-2010, 04:12 PM
Not really. He only started getting any type of regular AB's a few weeks ago-and even now it's still sporadic.



And, in case you haven't noticed, he's starting to hit like a lot of us told you he would. A .318 OBP since he started getting full-time AB's this month. A lot less walks, his SLG is saving him right now but if pitchers start dealing him away and breaking balls in, that SLG is probably going to drop.

I agree, and would love to see it happen more to see if he could adjust than anything else. The key to Colvin, IMHO, is whether or not he is going to be able to adjust as pitchers adjust to him. Honestly, I don't see him keeping the slugging up this high, but I wouldn't be surprised to see like a .320/.430/.750 type line or a little better. Definately not HOF material, and not the best option, but his defense giving him a small advantage on playing time. Working with Rudy in the off season might help too.

Doogolas
06-28-2010, 04:25 PM
Not really. He only started getting any type of regular AB's a few weeks ago-and even now it's still sporadic.



And, in case you haven't noticed, he's starting to hit like a lot of us told you he would. A .318 OBP since he started getting full-time AB's this month. A lot less walks, his SLG is saving him right now but if pitchers start dealing him away and breaking balls in, that SLG is probably going to drop.

Well I will say this about him. While he K's more than I'd like, he only K's swinging about 21% of the time. Which isn't too bad. And generally he strikes out on pitches inside, not outside. Similar to when Fuku does his helicopter stuff.

In fact, I have his boxes up. Pitching him outside is a TERRIBLE idea. The ONLY place he's cold on the outside is out of the strike zone down and away. And that's mostly because he K's there. That's dangerous. Up and away he has an OPS of 1.208. On the outside corner at the knees he's got a .909OPS up and away 2.500 and middle of the zone on the outside it's 1.571. And even the out of the zone and down his OPS is .689. Interestingly and conversely he's AWFUL on pitches inside. .000 on pitches up and in out of the zone down and out of the zone it's .118 with THIRTEEN K'S in FIFTEEN AB's(!!!!) down and in but still in the zone he's .714 middle and in .900 and up and in (obviously still in the zone) .000.

So while he's a pull hitter he likes to extend his hands. That actually makes me feel a lot better about him. He kills pitches in the middle of the plate, like most hitters do. He only has two Home Runs on pitches inside and two on pitches outside. The others are all from mistakes, as I assume most hitters homers are.

Also, just a quick add on: He only has 5K's on pitches that are anywhere away from him and not down and out of the zone. He has 12K's in 34AB's on pitches down and away from him, but even still it appears that trying to pitch him away will not end well, at least with the scouting report that teams have on him (presumably) now.

redwhitenblue
06-28-2010, 05:46 PM
And generally he strikes out on pitches inside, not outside. Pitchers haven't really attacked him inside often. He's shown a weakness for breaking balls inside already (which explains his boxes).


Pitchers will eventually do what they have done to Soriano-which is attack the weakness first (for Colvin, throw inside) and then go away later in the AB. I haven't seen many guys throw him a few breaking balls inside and then go away with a fastball-but the 1 or 2 times I remember it, he was late on the fastball. (memory, could be faulty)

Fact is, you pitch away to him and make him go opposite field. If he's pulling a pitch away, then go further outside, he hasn't really shown the patience that should make pitchers be afraid to get behind in the count on him.


Unless he's one of the only guys in major league history who can always pull the pitch on the outside half, he's going to struggle (as said, he hasn't had many opposite field hits at all, and basically all his power is dead pull).

Ron!n
06-28-2010, 06:09 PM
Pitchers haven't really attacked him inside often. He's shown a weakness for breaking balls inside already (which explains his boxes).


Pitchers will eventually do what they have done to Soriano-which is attack the weakness first (for Colvin, throw inside) and then go away later in the AB. I haven't seen many guys throw him a few breaking balls inside and then go away with a fastball-but the 1 or 2 times I remember it, he was late on the fastball. (memory, could be faulty)

Fact is, you pitch away to him and make him go opposite field. If he's pulling a pitch away, then go further outside, he hasn't really shown the patience that should make pitchers be afraid to get behind in the count on him.


Unless he's one of the only guys in major league history who can always pull the pitch on the outside half, he's going to struggle (as said, he hasn't had many opposite field hits at all, and basically all his power is dead pull).
Who is it that you've been here since '04 but nobody has written on your wall?

redwhitenblue
06-28-2010, 06:10 PM
Who is it that you've been here since '04 but nobody has written on your wall?
A) Do you mean "how"?

B) They have, but I've deleted everything pretty much immediately. This isn't facebook, I don't care to have random people leaving me messages.

Doogolas
06-28-2010, 06:14 PM
Pitchers haven't really attacked him inside often. He's shown a weakness for breaking balls inside already (which explains his boxes).


Pitchers will eventually do what they have done to Soriano-which is attack the weakness first (for Colvin, throw inside) and then go away later in the AB. I haven't seen many guys throw him a few breaking balls inside and then go away with a fastball-but the 1 or 2 times I remember it, he was late on the fastball. (memory, could be faulty)

Fact is, you pitch away to him and make him go opposite field. If he's pulling a pitch away, then go further outside, he hasn't really shown the patience that should make pitchers be afraid to get behind in the count on him.


Unless he's one of the only guys in major league history who can always pull the pitch on the outside half, he's going to struggle (as said, he hasn't had many opposite field hits at all, and basically all his power is dead pull).

He doesn't swing and miss very much on pitches outside though. That to me says he's patient on pitches outside and is much more of a free swinger on inside pitches. He also has 9 of his walks on pitches outside and only 2 inside.

Sasuke11
06-28-2010, 08:22 PM
See the plain, lower case text here where I tell you to go look at his career numbers vs. lefties. Or are you too ignorant in a full picture kinda way? This is not Japan/ the Pacific Rim, it's mlb. This also isn't a cherry picked sample size either. The guy has had issues vs. lefties here in USA, Earth. The off-set for that, when he's not turning into a human tornado while K ing, is that his career OBP is solid. On a team that has little of that, his real, legit value is...leading off. We're also talking about a guy who wont ever hit more than 15 HRs. Colvin is on pace to hit 25 this season and is doing this at a fairly astounding rate considering his PAs, which have only gone up and been more consistent in what, the last two weeks?

Colvin at 1b, post Lee dealt this season, and in 2011 would be absolutely fine by me. Fukudome in RF in 2011 would be equally fine by me. Fukudome is not a problem. How he has been used/ not used has been. The guy that needs to go away is Derek Lee. That will happen next month.

Bold = wasn't the intention, like I said I'm running on little sleep the past 2 weeks from on average 16 hour work days - 4 am wake ups.

My point really stems from the fact that I feel Fukes hasn't been managed well by Lou at all. I think he could produce if given the fair opportunity, obviously not the king of hitting lefties but certainly tolerable. Yes I know he isn't getting younger etc. but with the teams current state I personally would rather shop Colvin since his stock seems to rise daily (not for me but for a lot of people) and I think at least in the short term (and given our pretty solid young talent coming through the minors) we would be better off trying to get someone for Colvin to help this year.

cowboydoc45
06-28-2010, 09:17 PM
Bold = wasn't the intention, like I said I'm running on little sleep the past 2 weeks from on average 16 hour work days - 4 am wake ups.

My point really stems from the fact that I feel Fukes hasn't been managed well by Lou at all. I think he could produce if given the fair opportunity, obviously not the king of hitting lefties but certainly tolerable. Yes I know he isn't getting younger etc. but with the teams current state I personally would rather shop Colvin since his stock seems to rise daily (not for me but for a lot of people) and I think at least in the short term (and given our pretty solid young talent coming through the minors) we would be better off trying to get someone for Colvin to help this year.

That is a bit of a sticky situation. Honestly, if we were closer to being in this thing, yes, you would probably shop Colvin and go for broke. Since we are pretty much out of it, I would keep Colvin (low salary, decent production) and see what he can do.

windycityD
06-30-2010, 11:37 AM
Bold = wasn't the intention, like I said I'm running on little sleep the past 2 weeks from on average 16 hour work days - 4 am wake ups.

My point really stems from the fact that I feel Fukes hasn't been managed well by Lou at all. I think he could produce if given the fair opportunity, obviously not the king of hitting lefties but certainly tolerable. Yes I know he isn't getting younger etc. but with the teams current state I personally would rather shop Colvin since his stock seems to rise daily (not for me but for a lot of people) and I think at least in the short term (and given our pretty solid young talent coming through the minors) we would be better off trying to get someone for Colvin to help this year.

In my mind, two guys who could very well be here into 2011 and possibly dealt next July are A Ram and Fukudome. I don't care who the next manager/ or GM is, I am fairly confident that Fukudome's real value as a lead off hitter will be recognized & that it will be nearly impossible to deal him & his contract before next July. By default, I think he stays. In my way of thinking, I see that as a plus.

Now, the next question is, where does Colvin play? The only way to get him more ABs this season and next is time at 1b imho. Assuming Byrd is not flipped and Fukudome cannot be, that's the only solution. He'd play all OF spots, plus 1b. You're talking 4-5 starts a week in the very minimum between all those positions.

cowboydoc45
06-30-2010, 11:45 AM
In my mind, two guys who could very well be here into 2011 and possibly dealt next July are A Ram and Fukudome. I don't care who the next manager/ or GM is, I am fairly confident that Fukudome's real value as a lead off hitter will be recognized & that it will be nearly impossible to deal him & his contract before next July. By default, I think he stays. In my way of thinking, I see that as a plus.

Now, the next question is, where does Colvin play? The only way to get him more ABs this season and next is time at 1b imho. Assuming Byrd is not flipped and Fukudome cannot be, that's the only solution. He'd play all OF spots, plus 1b. You're talking 4 stats a week in the very minimum between all those positions.

If he shows any ability at 1b, honestly, I would send him to play Winter Ball playing strictly 1b, and let him get proficient, and then let him take his reps there this spring. He would still be a plus defender in the OF, could be an average 1b, and if he can improve his K rate a little, and keep hitting for some power, would probably be a viable option at any of 4 positions..

windycityD
06-30-2010, 12:13 PM
If he shows any ability at 1b, honestly, I would send him to play Winter Ball playing strictly 1b, and let him get proficient, and then let him take his reps there this spring. He would still be a plus defender in the OF, could be an average 1b, and if he can improve his K rate a little, and keep hitting for some power, would probably be a viable option at any of 4 positions..

Colvin and Castro, along with Cashner (starting, limit the innings) and Jackson (reliever, limit the innings), should all be in winter ball imho. And yes, I'd play Colvin nearly exclusively at 1b, but I'd also toss in time in CF & RF as well. I'd also suggest Fukudome could benefit as well, but he would likely not agree with that and go.

Str1fe5
06-30-2010, 12:59 PM
Jesus I just looked it and Colvin has almost as much PT as Geo does this season. Less starts and PA, but more games played.

Geovany Soto is the 2nd best offensive catcher in the entire majors through about half of a season. And Lou still goes with a 55/45 split time of him and Koyie Hill. God. Dammit.

I this this team so much right now...

As far as Colvin vs Fukudome, I'm all for trading Fukudome only if we can get actual value back. He's not worth 13 million a season right now, but he's worth probably 9 or 10 so I want 9 or 10 million in net value back or I say keep him.

poodski
06-30-2010, 01:57 PM
Jesus I just looked it and Colvin has almost as much PT as Geo does this season. Less starts and PA, but more games played.

Geovany Soto is the 2nd best offensive catcher in the entire majors through about half of a season. And Lou still goes with a 55/45 split time of him and Koyie Hill. God. Dammit.

I this this team so much right now...

As far as Colvin vs Fukudome, I'm all for trading Fukudome only if we can get actual value back. He's not worth 13 million a season right now, but he's worth probably 9 or 10 so I want 9 or 10 million in net value back or I say keep him.

A few things. One Geo has 71% of the PA at Catcher so he is playing over 70% of the time. To me, for a catcher thats about where it should be. Maybe 75%, but thats not enough for us to start crying over.

Secondly sure Colvin has played in more games, thats not that surprising since for the majority of the season Colvin has been our pinch runner and a defensive replacement.

In the games Colvin has played these are his PA:

5 PA: 10 games
4 PA: 15 games
3 PA: 4 games
2 PA: 3 games
1 PA: 29 games
0 PA: 8 games

So in 53% of his appearances he has gotten 1 PA or less. So its really not a big deal, and if Soto didn't run like he was carrying Montana on his back, he would probably pinch run some too or not be pinch ran for as often, which also takes away PA from Soto.

Str1fe5
06-30-2010, 03:44 PM
A few things. One Geo has 71% of the PA at Catcher so he is playing over 70% of the time. To me, for a catcher thats about where it should be. Maybe 75%, but thats not enough for us to start crying over.

Secondly sure Colvin has played in more games, thats not that surprising since for the majority of the season Colvin has been our pinch runner and a defensive replacement.

In the games Colvin has played these are his PA:

5 PA: 10 games
4 PA: 15 games
3 PA: 4 games
2 PA: 3 games
1 PA: 29 games
0 PA: 8 games

So in 53% of his appearances he has gotten 1 PA or less. So its really not a big deal, and if Soto didn't run like he was carrying Montana on his back, he would probably pinch run some too or not be pinch ran for as often, which also takes away PA from Soto.

I have Geo @ 68% of the available PA, going into today. Geo has had 214 PA, Koyie Hill 87. Has anyone other than those two even caught an inning for the Cubs this season?

I'm not too upset by Colvin's usage thus far. I just think its absurd that he has almost 75% of the PA that Soto does this far into the season, catcher or not.

Also I could have sworn Geo was @ -1 in fielding for C's earlier today but now it has him @ -3. I still don't know how FG tracks C defense exactly.

Jilly Bohnson
06-30-2010, 03:58 PM
I have Geo @ 68% of the available PA, going into today. Geo has had 214 PA, Koyie Hill 87. Has anyone other than those two even caught an inning for the Cubs this season?

I'm not too upset by Colvin's usage thus far. I just think its absurd that he has almost 75% of the PA that Soto does this far into the season, catcher or not.

Also I could have sworn Geo was @ -1 in fielding for C's earlier today but now it has him @ -3. I still don't know how FG tracks C defense exactly.

It's purely based stolen bases I'm pretty sure. Although I doubt it takes into account how bad our MI's have been at receiving throws and how bad all of our non-Zambrano pitchers are at holding runners.