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View Full Version : Castro Intentionally Walked to get to Lee



4cubs
05-23-2010, 01:16 AM
Is Castro that good or is Lee that bad?

croce_99
05-23-2010, 01:22 AM
Career numbers mean nothing when it comes down to 1 at bat.

Look at Castros numbers lately and look at Lees.
Also, the base was open and Castro already hit a deep fly ball(HR). Lee did nothing all game.

Lee brought the guy home from 3rd....and the Cubs needed the extra run.
So I was happy with the outcome.

Just shows how bad Lee is playing that teams would rather face him with the bases loaded instead of a rookie.

CubbieSteve
05-23-2010, 01:24 AM
They wanted to set up the DP.

croce_99
05-23-2010, 01:24 AM
They wanted to set up the DP.

True, but if Lee was hitting .300, they wouldn't have IBB a rookie to face Lee.
They only walked Castro because Lee has been playing horribly

LaToyaHawkins
05-23-2010, 02:02 AM
It was a smart managerial move to walk Castro to get up Lee. They needed a double-play and Lee routinely hits into DP's. We got away with the win, but we're extremely fortunate. I'm just happy to get a W. We're 5-2 in our last 7. We need a long 3-week string of mostly W's.

CubbieSteve
05-23-2010, 02:08 AM
True, but if Lee was hitting .300, they wouldn't have IBB a rookie to face Lee.
They only walked Castro because Lee has been playing horribly

Yeah that's true as well.

We aren't going to be a consistent, winning club until Lee and Ramirez get their acts together. The pitching has been there, we're just missing our 2 best hitters right now.

DamnGoat
05-23-2010, 02:08 AM
They would have done the same thing if Aramis was hitting behind him as well and we probably wouldn't have gotten another run if that's the case.

NORTH10
05-23-2010, 02:36 AM
Lee, as well as Ramirez, aren't the same guys as they were. Simple as that. No signs of them changing that either this year.

Jilly Bohnson
05-23-2010, 02:58 AM
Are you kidding me?

NORTH10
05-23-2010, 03:40 AM
It's nearing June, Ramirez is batting .160, Lee is struggling at .215. Both players are on an obvious decline and are just not what they were 2-3 years ago. Lee's and Ramirez's ABs have been a consistent struggle. As of now, there is nothing to be positive about regarding them. That being said...all it takes is a couple games stranded together to turn things on again. Yet, when something good happens, it seems it has not led to anything. There has not been a stretch this year where you can be comforted by each of their performances. The only thing you can hope for is their track records...but damn, it's been a struggle to even get there. You can't help but be worried. Specifically for Aramis because of his thumb and possibly effects of the shoulder injury.

ST.maarten'stop
05-23-2010, 04:05 AM
It's nearing June, Ramirez is batting .160, Lee is struggling at .215. Both players are on an obvious decline and are just not what they were 2-3 years ago. Lee's and Ramirez's ABs have been a consistent struggle. As of now, there is nothing to be positive about regarding them. That being said...all it takes is a couple games stranded together to turn things on again. Yet, when something good happens, it seems it has not led to anything. There has not been a stretch this year where you can be comforted by each of their performances. The only thing you can hope for is their track records...but damn, it's been a struggle to even get there. You can't help but be worried. Specifically for Aramis because of his thumb and possibly effects of the shoulder injury.

you post reaks.. more of a disappointed fan rather then one of good logic...yeah they've struggled.. but how many times have we seen stars have off years only to bounce back the following yeah..better yet how many times he we seen those same guys turn into Monsters the second half of a season after sucking **** from *** the first half..

Decline??!!!!??? you serious!!!! Decline would me lack of bat speed those sort of things not off timing which is the case with both Ramirez and Lee. Im not saying you shoudn't be upset but i mean.. you can do better then act like a over-reacting whiny ***** and i say that with all due respect...

look at it this way over the last few weeks there have been sign of improvement.. they are hit the ball hard now just right at people.. nd they re not striking out like the beginning.. which indicates their slowly coming out of their respective slumps.. :cool:

croce_99
05-23-2010, 04:15 AM
look at it this way over the last few weeks there have been sign of improvement.. they are hit the ball hard now just right at people.. nd they re not striking out like the beginning.. which indicates their slowly coming out of their respective slumps.. :cool:

Aramis went 0-5 with 4 strikeouts today :facepalm:

But hey, maybe it was just a bad game...

theSPECIALKID
05-23-2010, 04:22 AM
At least Lee has hit some line drives and put good swings on the ball. Ramirez looks clueless at the plate...

Yagyu+
05-23-2010, 04:24 AM
Decline??!!!!??? you serious!!!! Decline would me lack of bat speed those sort of things not off timing which is the case with both Ramirez and Lee. Im not saying you shoudn't be upset but i mean.. you can do better then act like a over-reacting whiny ***** and i say that with all due respect...

I'm not implying that we're seeing a decline, but a slower bat speed -- an inability to hit fastballs -- has been an issue for Ramirez this season. This article from fangraphs (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/aramis-troubles-with-the-wood/) is from a few weeks ago, but still worth a read for some perspective on how he fared in April:


Some aspects of Ramirez’s struggles aren’t showing up in his slash line either, such as his strikeout rate which is approaching 26%. Ramirez’s career strikeout rate is hovering above 15%. One of the other underlying issues with Ramirez is his inability to hit fastballs. He’s giving away five runs per 100 fastballs, which is the worst in baseball. In fact, Juan Pierre is second worst, and he’s only giving away three runs per 100 fastballs seen.

Ramirez only has a .169 batting average on balls in play, but some would probably raise the question: is this bad luck or is it a slow bat? Call the sudden decaying run values against fastballs by Morgan Ensberg and Richie Sexson to the stand and there’s a battle brewing. Through Saturday’s affairs, Ramirez was swinging and missing at roughly 11% of the fastballs he’d seen and fouling about 19% off. In 2009, Ramirez found himself whiffing a little under 8% of the time and fouling off 27% of fastballs seen.

It’s probably nothing to worry about. Ramirez started the 2006 season with a similarly poor April against fastballs and chugged along to a .381 wOBA.

Ramirez has since pulled his hitting up some to where he's only giving away 3.45 runs per 100 fastballs instead of five. BABIP is now .184 up from .169.

NORTH10
05-23-2010, 04:32 AM
Aramis went 0-5 with 4 strikeouts today :facepalm:

But hey, maybe it was just a bad game...

stole the words right out of my mouth.

But in response to that, yeah I'm "whining" because this **** is ridiculous. Our 3-4 hitters are continuing to hit like complete **** heading into June.

Aramis has not gotten a hit since Monday, and now has a thumb injury that he cringes at every time he takes a hard swing.

Lee had a ****** start last year, but he was back on track and going in the right direction at this time last year.

I still have confidence in them, but never before have these two players gone through what they are going through right now to start a year off.

Reese's
05-23-2010, 07:29 AM
They were just trying to set up the DP. Plus with Lee struggling why not go after him instead of Castro who's been hitting very well since his debut.

AllStar44
05-23-2010, 09:13 AM
They were just trying to set up the DP. Plus with Lee struggling why not go after him instead of Castro who's been hitting very well since his debut.

I believe there trying to say if Lee hasn't been slumping lately you don't walk the bases loaded for him, even if you want a DP. I don't care who it is if a hitter is on a hot streak and is seeing the ball well, it's a bad decision to walk the bases loaded for him.

But with this case it was a smart move by the manager. At least Lee didn't strike out.

semperfi
05-23-2010, 10:29 AM
Well with DP Lee on deck, what did you expect?

ST.maarten'stop
05-24-2010, 12:45 AM
Aramis went 0-5 with 4 strikeouts today :facepalm:

But hey, maybe it was just a bad game...

The Guy has been nurse a bad hand..:facepalm: obviously... you try hitting a ball yet ML piiching with a mess ****ed up hand.. you's be lucky to hit a bucket of balls thrown at you anywhere..because you hands are most important while hitting for bat control...just saying:rolleyes:


I'm not implying that we're seeing a decline, but a slower bat speed -- an inability to hit fastballs -- has been an issue for Ramirez this season. This article from fangraphs (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/aramis-troubles-with-the-wood/) is from a few weeks ago, but still worth a read for some perspective on how he fared in April:



Ramirez has since pulled his hitting up some to where he's only giving away 3.45 runs per 100 fastballs instead of five. BABIP is now .184 up from .169.

Thanks for proving my point.. in the beginning it was more of a timing issue.. not lack of bat speed.. like you pointed his balls put in play had risen.. the only reason stands out like a sore thumbs is because he has stinked it up.. but then again those results are because of a sore thumb..and again hands are the most important for your bat control.. i mean look at what happen to D.Lee Post wrist injury..


stole the words right out of my mouth.

But in response to that, yeah I'm "whining" because this **** is ridiculous. Our 3-4 hitters are continuing to hit like complete **** heading into June.

Aramis has not gotten a hit since Monday, and now has a thumb injury that he cringes at every time he takes a hard swing.

Lee had a ****** start last year, but he was back on track and going in the right direction at this time last year.

I still have confidence in them, but never before have these two players gone through what they are going through right now to start a year off.

which is why you should be patient my brother.. they have never gone through this everrr.. this isn't Soriano where talking about here.. Btw he's been on fire lately:D...when we start loosing again then i'll join you and ***** but for now the teams winning lets be patient.. and hope they can join the party soon... nothing has set time table we just have estimation based pass..;)

Yagyu+
05-24-2010, 01:11 AM
Thanks for proving my point.. in the beginning it was more of a timing issue.. not lack of bat speed.. like you pointed his balls put in play had risen.. the only reason stands out like a sore thumbs is because he has stinked it up.. but then again those results are because of a sore thumb..and again hands are the most important for your bat control.. i mean look at what happen to D.Lee Post wrist injury.

Actually, when I wrote that he has 'a slower bat speed' it meant that he lacks bat speed. It's not a timing issue, unless you're having difficulty grasping the concept of what 'slower' means? Or maybe it's a timing issue if I have to repeat myself a number of times?

Ramirez's LD% is down about 5% off his career numbers and his FB% is up about 15%. And we're not talking well hit fly balls; his contact has been poor. The BABIP was going to rise regardless. An increase of .015 is nothing to shout about, and this increase does not translate to improved timing.

Again: a slower bat speed = lacks bat speed.

Seyton
05-24-2010, 11:21 PM
It's not so much about whether or not guys get their normal numbers when all is said and done, it's more about when they get their numbers. Lee was awful for at least the first third of last season and that affected the club greatly. While he personally rebounded to a great season I would say the damage was done early on as the Cubs never recovered, finishing only five games over.

This year it's the same thing. Lee and Ramirez have left a lot of wins on the table already. Even if they do rebound, how easy is it going to be to get those games back?

Mell413
05-24-2010, 11:32 PM
It's not so much about whether or not guys get their normal numbers when all is said and done, it's more about when they get their numbers. Lee was awful for at least the first third of last season and that affected the club greatly. While he personally rebounded to a great season I would say the damage was done early on as the Cubs never recovered, finishing only five games over.

This year it's the same thing. Lee and Ramirez have left a lot of wins on the table already. Even if they do rebound, how easy is it going to be to get those games back?

It's not going to be easy getting those games back. I think it's fair to say those two have cost us about 3 wins to this point.

duce5858
05-24-2010, 11:43 PM
Ramirez is in the worst funk of his career and doesn't realize its because he's trying to pull everything! DLee is also trying to pull the ball far too often. Both of these guys are at their best when they drive the ball to right-center. Ramirez also has the thumb injury.

duce5858
05-24-2010, 11:46 PM
DLee has also grounded into 6 double plays already this season. So you walk Castro and take your chances with the guy who is in a slump and has a tendency to hit into double plays.

ST.maarten'stop
05-25-2010, 07:36 AM
Actually, when I wrote that he has 'a slower bat speed' it meant that he lacks bat speed. It's not a timing issue, unless you're having difficulty grasping the concept of what 'slower' means? Or maybe it's a timing issue if I have to repeat myself a number of times?

Ramirez's LD% is down about 5% off his career numbers and his FB% is up about 15%. And we're not talking well hit fly balls; his contact has been poor. The BABIP was going to rise regardless. An increase of .015 is nothing to shout about, and this increase does not translate to improved timing.

Again: a slower bat speed = lacks bat speed.

have you ever played the sport.. you just sound incredibily ********.. you need timing to be able to time the possibility of making direct contact the ball from the time it leaves the pitchers and to the air of the plate you looking to make contact...If you played the sport before you would know timing has alll to do with whiffs and contact which is the case with rameriz...:facepalm:

Lck of bad need would result in not being able to pull balls anymore and more hits to right for rammy..seeing that rameriz is still pulling the ball.. look up information.. do your research ramirezs sore thump is a result of him rolling over his hand too much.. Rolling over is a result of being too much infront..which comes front not having proper timing.. contact and whiffs rates says nothing bout slowed bat speed.. hey you would now better then the hitting coaches.. funny how you dont have a job within a organization...:rolleyes:

Ron!n
05-25-2010, 07:50 AM
have you ever played the sport.. you just sound incredibily ********.. you need timing to be able to time the possibility of making direct contact the ball from the time it leaves the pitchers and to the air of the plate you looking to make contact...If you played the sport before you would know timing has alll to do with whiffs and contact which is the case with rameriz...:facepalm:

Lck of bad need would result in not being able to pull balls anymore and more hits to right for rammy..seeing that rameriz is still pulling the ball.. look up information.. do your research ramirezs sore thump is a result of him rolling over his hand too much.. Rolling over is a result of being too much infront..which comes front not having proper timing.. contact and whiffs rates says nothing bout slowed bat speed.. hey you would now better then the hitting coaches.. funny how you dont have a job within a organization...:rolleyes:
Last i checked neither do you.

Its pretty simple actually, if your bat is slow you're not going to be able to hit any of the fast pitches. Which would mean an increase in K rates.

ST.maarten'stop
05-25-2010, 10:55 AM
Last i checked neither do you.

Its pretty simple actually, if your bat is slow you're not going to be able to hit any of the fast pitches. Which would mean an increase in K rates.

Difference between me and him is i've actually played it in a high level.. sooo you can chuck it up to what ever you want.. i from personal experience know its hard to hit if your timing is off.. means he just not getting good reads doesnt mean his bat speed is slower.. this isnt david ortiz not because that was the case that ortiz or who ever was striking out alot becuse they lacked the bat speed and couldnt handle the heater means rameriz miss on heaters come from the same result.. if it was bat speed trust me you would have heard it long time ago hey, it was well noted of ortiz lack of bat speed... you guys basically try make assumptions and what you guys think is wrong and try back it up through fast ball rates.. my god the guy is working his way back fro a shoulder problem.. last year he compensated to adjust to swinging with shoulder pain..nows he fully healthy he needs to readjust again get used to his old swing again...you guys a so god damn pessimistic here..whenever you have a good thing you always try bring out the negative in everything sa,e with castro same with cashner.. now their succeeding everyones on their nuts before it was i see em as nothing great in then just average...now besides i would quicker take the word of a major league hitting instructor then the likes of any of you..

Yagyu+
05-25-2010, 11:18 AM
have you ever played the sport.. you just sound incredibily ********.. you need timing to be able to time the possibility of making direct contact the ball from the time it leaves the pitchers and to the air of the plate you looking to make contact...If you played the sport before you would know timing has alll to do with whiffs and contact which is the case with rameriz...:facepalm:

Lck of bad need would result in not being able to pull balls anymore and more hits to right for rammy..seeing that rameriz is still pulling the ball.. look up information.. do your research ramirezs sore thump is a result of him rolling over his hand too much.. Rolling over is a result of being too much infront..which comes front not having proper timing.. contact and whiffs rates says nothing bout slowed bat speed.. hey you would now better then the hitting coaches.. funny how you dont have a job within a organization...:rolleyes:

Alright, I’m not purporting to be a metrics expert – I’m still learning – but I’ll try and break down my interpretation of the numbers for you, again.

The first stat I want to consider is pitch type values -- wins vs pitches. This stat shows how many runs above average a player has performed against a given pitch. If you look at Ramirez’s pitch type values, his numbers have some concerning trends:


Season Team wFB wSL wCT wCB wCH wSF
2008 Cubs 20.8 4.7 0.3 -4.7 -0.4 -0.4
2009 Cubs 9.8 1.3 5.0 0.9 -1.4 -1.4
2010 Cubs -14.7 0.0 -0.8 1.7 -2.0 -2.0

Pay attention to the fastball. In 2009 his wFB was 9.8, now it’s -14.7 -- it was 20.8 in 2008. I don’t have to go into the derivations of the metrics for you to see how poor this is. His numbers are down against cut fastballs and split finger fastballs as well.

For comparison, his wCB went from -4.7 in 2008, to 0.9 in 2009, and now it’s 1.7 -- seems like his timing on the off speed stuff is holding up. Or it was -- his wSL has recently dropped some.

Players usually do most of their damage against fastballs, but here Aramis is struggling more than anything else. Were his numbers suffering against all pitches it would indicate to me a slump -- as Lou/Aramis claim this to be -- not declining bat speed. But because Aramis is struggling solely against the fastball, I’m led to believe that it’s bat speed (please correct me if this is the wrong conclusion).

In an earlier post I discussed some batted ball percentages (FB%, LD%, GB%). Also, Ramirez’s HR/FB has dropped from 12.9 in 2009 to 5.6 in 2010. A player who hits more FBs than another player -- as Ramirez is hitting them 16.4% more frequently this season -- will logically have a lower BABIP. A player who hits more FBs than another player won’t have as many hits because LDs and GBs go for hits at a greater rate than FBs -- the vast majority of which are caught. However, just because he has a low BABIP does not necessarily mean that he will rebound. A change in approach or skills will often lead to a severe drop in BABIP -- this much we’ve seen so far.

Aramis usually destroys fastballs, but his bat speed is down, leading to struggles here. This results in poor contact, resulting in fewer LDs and GBs, and more FBs -- hence the floored HR/FB ratio, fewer HRs, and horrific BABIP. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the power numbers pick up some, but his average could well stay low. Regardless of bat speed/timing, his struggles are clearly skills related. The sore thumb is a recent development and does not account for nearly two months of below average hitting.

ST.maarten'stop
05-25-2010, 11:26 AM
Alright, Iím not purporting to be a metrics expert Ė Iím still learning Ė but Iíll try and break down my interpretation of the numbers for you, again.

The first stat I want to consider is pitch type values -- wins vs pitches. This stat shows how many runs above average a player has performed against a given pitch. If you look at Ramirezís pitch type values, his numbers have some concerning trends:


Season Team wFB wSL wCT wCB wCH wSF
2008 Cubs 20.8 4.7 0.3 -4.7 -0.4 -0.4
2009 Cubs 9.8 1.3 5.0 0.9 -1.4 -1.4
2010 Cubs -14.7 0.0 -0.8 1.7 -2.0 -2.0

Pay attention to the fastball. In 2009 his wFB was 9.8, now itís -14.7 -- it was 20.8 in 2008. I donít have to go into the derivations of the metrics for you to see how poor this is. His numbers are down against cut fastballs and split finger fastballs as well.

For comparison, his wCB went from -4.7 in 2008, to 0.9 in 2009, and now itís 1.7 -- seems like his timing on the off speed stuff is holding up. Or it was -- his wSL has recently dropped some.

Players usually do most of their damage against fastballs, but here Aramis is struggling more than anything else. Were his numbers suffering against all pitches it would indicate to me a slump -- as Lou/Aramis claim this to be -- not declining bat speed. But because Aramis is struggling solely against the fastball, Iím led to believe that itís bat speed (please correct me if this is the wrong conclusion).

In an earlier post I discussed some batted ball percentages (FB%, LD%, GB%). Also, Ramirezís HR/FB has dropped from 12.9 in 2009 to 5.6 in 2010. A player who hits more FBs than another player -- as Ramirez is hitting them 16.4% more frequently this season -- will logically have a lower BABIP. A player who hits more FBs than another player wonít have as many hits because LDs and GBs go for hits at a greater rate than FBs -- the vast majority of which are caught. However, just because he has a low BABIP does not necessarily mean that he will rebound. A change in approach or skills will often lead to a severe drop in BABIP -- this much weíve seen so far.

Aramis usually destroys fastballs, but his bat speed is down, leading to struggles here. This results in poor contact with the ball, resulting in fewer LDs and GBs and more FBs. Hence the floored HR/FB ratio and fewer HRs. This is also the reason for the horrific BABIP. I wouldnít be surprised to see the power numbers pick up some, but his average could well stay low. Regardless of bat speed/timing, his struggles are clearly skills related. The sore thumb is a recent development and does not account for nearly two months of below average hitting.

Fair assessment i can live with that..im just saying that people tend to connect things too much based on what they heard about others instead of looking at things from a individual stand point..but i see where your coming from though.. my apologizies..its different when you see where the argument is coming from compared to jus being told no..

svcards3
05-25-2010, 01:36 PM
Is Castro that good or is Lee that bad?
i think its a mixture of both. but on another note make lee and ram bat 7 and 8 im tired of innings ending bc they cant put the bat on the ball absoltuely ridiculous :mad:

cowboydoc45
05-25-2010, 01:52 PM
i think its a mixture of both. but on another note make lee and ram bat 7 and 8 im tired of innings ending bc they cant put the bat on the ball absoltuely ridiculous :mad:

I was thinking maybe 5 and 6, or 6 and 7, but I don't think they should be dropped all the way to 7 and 8

majestic
05-25-2010, 02:35 PM
settin up the double play is the correct answer.

end thread