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Jilly Bohnson
05-05-2010, 04:51 PM
It's only a month away, so we might as well make the thread for it.

Here's Keith Law's top 100 prospects list (insider)

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=5129340

Here's a nice blog that covers the draft:

http://www.mlbbonusbaby.com/

And obviously...

www.baseballamerica.com

Right now it sounds like Anthony Ranaudo, who was a top 5 guy coming into the year, has slid thanks to some elbow issues and it's a legit shot that we could get him. He strikes me as this year's Kyle Gibson, and if we could get him that'd be a huge coup.

Mell413
05-05-2010, 04:55 PM
I'd be ecstatic if Ranaudo slipped to 15. He has struggled in his last few starts though. I think he got hit on a grounder so that could have affected his performance.

Do they have scouting reports on the Baseball America website. I have the prospect handbook, but it doesn't go into much detail on this years prospects.

Jilly Bohnson
05-05-2010, 05:00 PM
I'd be ecstatic if Ranaudo slipped to 15. He has struggled in his last few starts though. I think he got hit on a grounder so that could have affected his performance.

Do they have scouting reports on the Baseball America website. I have the prospect handbook, but it doesn't go into much detail on this years prospects.

They do, or at least they will soon if they don't. I don't have a BA subscription anymore, but this is usually around teh time when they start up in earnest on the draft.

CubbieSteve
05-05-2010, 05:42 PM
Give me like a top 5 of who you want in the 1st Jilly.

Or maybe I should ask who don't you want? Maybe we can find another Brett Jackson...lol just kidding

justndav
05-05-2010, 05:50 PM
boy if I were the Cubs I'd look into Nolan Fontana of FL... he plays SS now but could be shifted over to third as he seems to have an excellent arm.

We are picking in a draft this year where there seems to be no sure bet after about the top three or four picks (in terms of guys that have legitimate shots of making the majors).

If we dont go with 1B or 3B I'd of course like to see us draft pitching and probably a HS lefty if possible but HS'ers are so risky (whose the guy we took out of high school years back that was suppose to be so great and last I knew he was pitching in Idaho in our minor league system).

Really wish they would change the rules and allow for major league teams to trade draft picks like in the other major sports. Although I doubt the Nationals would give away their #1 pick this year or last for that matter.

justndav
05-05-2010, 05:57 PM
Oh that guys name was like Mark Pawalentz or something like that.

ReJo
05-05-2010, 06:00 PM
Alex Wimmers from Ohio State is who I want. I saw a few Ohio St games last year and he has got some nasty stuff. From the mock drafts I have seen he has been projected to go right around the area the Cubs pick so if he is there I hope the Cubs get him. Could be a starter or a closer

justndav
05-05-2010, 06:05 PM
I think I've seen him pitch also REJO and I agree he wouldn't be a bad choice either. Very impressive movement on his pitches and a good repotoire of pitches. Good suggestion... oh its Mark Pawalek... guys name just came to me.

Acronym
05-05-2010, 06:08 PM
Oh that guys name was like Mark Pawalentz or something like that.

Mark Pawelek, or as his friends know him, Total Failure.

Cub_StuckinSTL
05-05-2010, 06:08 PM
Its Jilly's favorite time of year!

Jilly Bohnson
05-05-2010, 06:10 PM
Give me like a top 5 of who you want in the 1st Jilly.

Or maybe I should ask who don't you want? Maybe we can find another Brett Jackson...lol just kidding

Well best case scenario is that one of the top 5 guys falls due to money concerns, but of guys who have a legit chance of falling to us I'd go with

1. Anthony Ranaudo - Pitcher with great stuff but injury concerns
2. Yasmani Grandal - Switch hitting catcher with good defense and a pretty good bat
3. AJ Cole - Very high ceiling high school pitcher
4. Bryce Brentz - Good all around college corner outfielder.
5. Austin Wilson - Toolsy high school outfielder. Sounds like he's a more-power less-speed Aaron Hicks.

In that order. This'll probably change a number of times in the next month though.

Doogolas
05-05-2010, 06:14 PM
Well best case scenario is that one of the top 5 guys falls due to money concerns, but of guys who have a legit chance of falling to us I'd go with

1. Anthony Ranaudo - Pitcher with great stuff but injury concerns
2. Yasmani Grandal - Switch hitting catcher with good defense and a pretty good bat
3. AJ Cole - Very high ceiling high school pitcher
4. Bryce Brentz - Good all around college corner outfielder.
5. Austin Wilson - Toolsy high school outfielder. Sounds like he's a more-power less-speed Aaron Hicks.

In that order. This'll probably change a number of times in the next month though.

Not that it matters, but I have a very sentimental fondness for the both of these two. I drafted both of them in an OOTP League that started with 2010, so they were in the first class. And I traded for a bunch of first round picks. Along with Bryce Harper, I got the two of them. :)

cubsneedmiracle
05-05-2010, 06:32 PM
Sweet.. I've been looking forward to this thread since the last draft!

justndav
05-05-2010, 06:34 PM
Well best case scenario is that one of the top 5 guys falls due to money concerns, but of guys who have a legit chance of falling to us I'd go with

1. Anthony Ranaudo - Pitcher with great stuff but injury concerns
2. Yasmani Grandal - Switch hitting catcher with good defense and a pretty good bat
3. AJ Cole - Very high ceiling high school pitcher
4. Bryce Brentz - Good all around college corner outfielder.
5. Austin Wilson - Toolsy high school outfielder. Sounds like he's a more-power less-speed Aaron Hicks.

In that order. This'll probably change a number of times in the next month though.

Grandal is a good suggestion as well... not a bad choice there.

cubsneedmiracle
05-05-2010, 06:40 PM
I'd be very very very pleased if Ranaudo falls to us.

cubsneedmiracle
05-05-2010, 06:53 PM
Any chance in hell that Mr. Harper's asking price is too high and he slides??

what should we put the % chance of that happening?

SpudsRutkowski
05-05-2010, 06:54 PM
Mark Pawelek, or as his friends know him, Total Failure.

Unless you played MLB 2k8 where for some reason he had a power level in the mid 90's and could be used as a reliever for one inning if you knew he'd be up the next inning. Mr. Clutch with the virtual bat.

CubsFan/Realist
05-06-2010, 07:54 AM
I say we trade up for Harper :D but in all seriousness, we need to get a big big bat it think, someone who hits for big time power that doesn't blow avg. wise (aka not Carlos Pena). If we could find someone with potential Aram or Lee power, I'd be thrilled.

BDawk4Prez
05-06-2010, 09:57 AM
I am curious to thoughts as well on Harper.

Jilly Bohnson
05-06-2010, 11:46 AM
I say we trade up for Harper :D but in all seriousness, we need to get a big big bat it think, someone who hits for big time power that doesn't blow avg. wise (aka not Carlos Pena). If we could find someone with potential Aram or Lee power, I'd be thrilled.

Unfortunately bat's aren't really the strength of this draft. Brentz is probably the best bat we could get but even he's probably more something in the .300/.380/.500 mold with 20-25 homers. We should have our pick of some very good player, but there's not really a Ryan Braun out there for us.


I am curious to thoughts as well on Harper.

Harper's pretty much amazing. He can probably hit 30-35 homers a year while catching, more if they move him off to right field. He's a pretty good runner, and has a cannon arm. He's fine defensively behind the plate, and the only real question is probably what kind of average he's going to hit for. There's a chance he might be a .250/.340/.550 kind of bat, which is still very very good for a catcher, it just would be a bit of a disappointment after all the hype.

Ron!n
05-06-2010, 11:50 AM
I am curious to thoughts as well on Harper.
No matter how high his price is he wont slide that far at all. Id imagine the Nats would meet any price he wants (see Strasburg) but if they dont, keep in mind the Mets are in front of us.

Not a chance that the Nats pass up a superstar and not a chance that he reaches us.

CubbieSteve
05-06-2010, 11:52 AM
I am curious to thoughts as well on Harper.

He's gonna be a Pirate! The savior has arrived!

cubsneedmiracle
05-06-2010, 12:27 PM
Harper = awesome.

BDawk4Prez
05-06-2010, 01:11 PM
He's gonna be a Pirate! The savior has arrived!

Patience grasshopper, patience.

Cubs420
05-08-2010, 11:32 AM
I hope the Cubs draft a pitcher in the first round, we seem to have a good amount of talented position players in the system and after Jay Jackson, Cashner and Carpenter we seem a little thin on talented arms...

gocubs2118
05-08-2010, 11:39 AM
Our future at SS doesn't look so good right now. We should probably take one with our first pick.

Ron!n
05-08-2010, 11:50 AM
Ive got a question about drafting strategy.

I know everyone says you always draft based on talent. But say you have an extremely good young, cheap LF and he can only play LF, and by far the best available player is a LF who can only play LF. Do you draft the LF and trade him or what exactly do you do?

JuggernautJ
05-08-2010, 12:03 PM
I Believe the cubs Will Take A Pitcher in The First Round.

my Top Choices


Stetson Allie
A.J. Cole
Cameron Bedrosian
Jesse Hahn
Anthony Ranaudo

Cubs420
05-08-2010, 12:20 PM
Ive got a question about drafting strategy.

I know everyone says you always draft based on talent. But say you have an extremely good young, cheap LF and he can only play LF, and by far the best available player is a LF who can only play LF. Do you draft the LF and trade him or what exactly do you do?

Prospects are great trade bait as im sure you already know, so my answer to that question is yes, you draft the most talented guy available and if you think you can't find a spot for him, you trade the kid for major league ready talent.

Jilly Bohnson
05-08-2010, 01:08 PM
Prospects are great trade bait as im sure you already know, so my answer to that question is yes, you draft the most talented guy available and if you think you can't find a spot for him, you trade the kid for major league ready talent.

This is exactly it. Look at the Brewers. They had Prince Fielder, and he obviously wasn't going anywhere, but they thought the best guy available was Matt Laporta, who obviously didn't have a place in Milwaukee, but he ended up netting them Sabathia.

Jilly Bohnson
05-08-2010, 01:34 PM
Ranaudo's still struggling. I know there will be concerns by whoever drafts him, but I think if he falls to us we have to take him, just on pure talent alone. You kind of have to hope/assume it's just draft-itis.

zzConflict
05-08-2010, 02:10 PM
Been doing some draft previews for the site I blog for, thought you guys may be interested.

High school hitters preview part 1 (http://bit.ly/adehnC)
High school hitters preview part 2 (http://bit.ly/aWRjgz)

zzConflict
05-08-2010, 02:10 PM
Ranaudo's still struggling. I know there will be concerns by whoever drafts him, but I think if he falls to us we have to take him, just on pure talent alone. You kind of have to hope/assume it's just draft-itis.
I've been thinking similarly from the White Sox perspective. I really like Austin Wilson, who I think is going to be a stud, but if Ranaudo is there I'd hope the Sox would take him.

Jilly Bohnson
05-08-2010, 02:54 PM
Been doing some draft previews for the site I blog for, thought you guys may be interested.

High school hitters preview part 1 (http://bit.ly/adehnC)
High school hitters preview part 2 (http://bit.ly/aWRjgz)

These are good, great job!


I've been thinking similarly from the White Sox perspective. I really like Austin Wilson, who I think is going to be a stud, but if Ranaudo is there I'd hope the Sox would take him.

Yeah, I really like Wilson too. He's probably the only high school hitter I want in the first round. He could be something really special.

Tom Emanski
05-08-2010, 03:34 PM
These are good, great job!



Yeah, I really like Wilson too. He's probably the only high school hitter I want in the first round. He could be something really special.


He's an impressive prospect. He's definitely one of the guys we should be looking at in round 1. He might be my first choice at this point, and I hope he is there when we pick...

Jilly Bohnson
05-08-2010, 04:53 PM
He's an impressive prospect. He's definitely one of the guys we should be looking at in round 1. He might be my first choice at this point, and I hope he is there when we pick...

He's probably got the most star potential of anyone we could get. And I don't know, the fact that he's a Stanford recruit to me says he's got a very good chance to get through all the approach issues that he has.

Mell413
05-08-2010, 06:10 PM
Ranaudo's still struggling. I know there will be concerns by whoever drafts him, but I think if he falls to us we have to take him, just on pure talent alone. You kind of have to hope/assume it's just draft-itis.

I think he might still be hurt, which could be affecting his play. I still like him though. I don't follow the draft as closely as you, but what about this for the first 3 picks:

Anthony Ranaudo, P
Justin Grimm, P
Micah Gibbs, C

They seem to only show SEC baseball on ESPN U so that's the only conference I get to see, but I believe the first two I mentioned were highly thought of at the beginning of the season.

zzConflict
05-08-2010, 11:26 PM
I think he might still be hurt, which could be affecting his play. I still like him though. I don't follow the draft as closely as you, but what about this for the first 3 picks:

Anthony Ranaudo, P
Justin Grimm, P
Micah Gibbs, C

They seem to only show SEC baseball on ESPN U so that's the only conference I get to see, but I believe the first two I mentioned were highly thought of at the beginning of the season.
I'd say it's unlikely that the Cubs will even have a shot at 2 of these guys let alone all 3. Grimm could slip to 65, but I think there's a good shot that they'll all be off the board by pick 50.

Mell413
05-09-2010, 01:52 AM
I'd say it's unlikely that the Cubs will even have a shot at 2 of these guys let alone all 3. Grimm could slip to 65, but I think there's a good shot that they'll all be off the board by pick 50.

I probably should have known that was a longshot to happen. I remember watching one of the games and they had Keith Law on and I could have sworn he said Gibbs was likely a 5th round pick. Not sure how respected his opinion is.

zzConflict
05-09-2010, 07:19 AM
I probably should have known that was a longshot to happen. I remember watching one of the games and they had Keith Law on and I could have sworn he said Gibbs was likely a 5th round pick. Not sure how respected his opinion is.
Law's opinion is pretty well respected, although he will often go out on a limb with his rankings and seems to like being different. He has Ranaudo ranked at #10, Grimm at 39 and Gibbs at 40 is his top 100.

ST.maarten'stop
05-09-2010, 08:20 AM
anyone knows where i can find the Wgn stream on the net??? or watch the cubs game today??? im in europe for awhile and their just killing me with the cubs games

Ron!n
05-09-2010, 12:41 PM
anyone knows where i can find the Wgn stream on the net??? or watch the cubs game today??? im in europe for awhile and their just killing me with the cubs games
You can listen to the game on one of these radio stations usually:
http://www.freebaseballradio.com/ChicagocubsMay.html

Video im not sure.

Jilly Bohnson
05-15-2010, 06:18 PM
Ranaudo struggled AGAIN. He might be a 2nd rounder at this point. He just keeps struggling.

Mell413
05-15-2010, 06:23 PM
Ranaudo struggled AGAIN. He might be a 2nd rounder at this point. He just keeps struggling.

I think he would be a steal for someone if he made it that far. I've seen some mock drafts with Matt Harvey from UNC to the Cubs. His scouting report reminds me somewhat of Cashner.

Jilly Bohnson
05-15-2010, 06:34 PM
I think he would be a steal for someone if he made it that far. I've seen some mock drafts with Matt Harvey from UNC to the Cubs. His scouting report reminds me somewhat of Cashner.

Yeah, for as much talent as he has when his actual performance has been this bad it might be hard for most teams to justify taking him in the first.

Harvey has a big time fastball, a good changeup, and at one point had a good curve. I wouldn't be mad if we ended up with him, although there are others I'd rather have.

TrialNError04
05-15-2010, 07:45 PM
Dream scenerio, what position do you think the Cubs would target in the first round? Power first baseman is a major need in the system, but there doesnt seem to be one worth a first round pick. Corner outfield maybe? Third base? Starting pitcher? Any chance they go away from their like of college players and go for a high schooler?

Jilly Bohnson
05-16-2010, 03:18 AM
Dream scenerio, what position do you think the Cubs would target in the first round? Power first baseman is a major need in the system, but there doesnt seem to be one worth a first round pick. Corner outfield maybe? Third base? Starting pitcher? Any chance they go away from their like of college players and go for a high schooler?

If we were to draft based on need we'd probably go with the highest upside of the high school arms left at our position. We lack bat-first 1b/3b in the system, and none of them are worth of first round consideration. The only legit 3b in the first round is Zach Cox, and he's basically a Bill Mueller clone, not a middle of the order guy like the system needs.

hrubes20
05-17-2010, 12:03 PM
This draft is going to be interesting. There are several prospects that I have mixed feelings about, and one, Austin Wilson, that I can't tell whether I love the guy or hate him. He has the highest ceiling of any hitter in the draft not named Bryce Harper, and I've seen some scouting reports that grade out his future power potential at 80 on the 20-80 scale. His arm in RF is the same thing. This kid has 2 sensational tools. But his weaknesses are pitch identification and contact. He could go the Mike Stanton route and become an elite prospect, or he could go the Ryan Harvey route and do absolutely nothing.

faithfulfan
05-17-2010, 12:15 PM
This draft is going to be interesting. There are several prospects that I have mixed feelings about, and one, Austin Wilson, that I can't tell whether I love the guy or hate him. He has the highest ceiling of any hitter in the draft not named Bryce Harper, and I've seen some scouting reports that grade out his future power potential at 80 on the 20-80 scale. His arm in RF is the same thing. This kid has 2 sensational tools. But his weaknesses are pitch identification and contact. He could go the Mike Stanton route and become an elite prospect, or he could go the Ryan Harvey route and do absolutely nothing.

I would love to get Wilson. I have been reading some scouting reports of guys on MILB.com. Wilson is very intriguing with his power potential and plus arm. As far as position players go, I haven't seen anyone I like better. I still think that I would like to get a top arm with our first pick and I'm still trying to find a favorite for that spot.

Jilly Bohnson
05-17-2010, 01:24 PM
This draft is going to be interesting. There are several prospects that I have mixed feelings about, and one, Austin Wilson, that I can't tell whether I love the guy or hate him. He has the highest ceiling of any hitter in the draft not named Bryce Harper, and I've seen some scouting reports that grade out his future power potential at 80 on the 20-80 scale. His arm in RF is the same thing. This kid has 2 sensational tools. But his weaknesses are pitch identification and contact. He could go the Mike Stanton route and become an elite prospect, or he could go the Ryan Harvey route and do absolutely nothing.

I dunno, I feel like the fact that he's such a smart guy means that he'll be able to fix those issues. Maybe that's a flawed line of reasoning on my part, but I feel like with him being so talented physically and mentally, that he's going to be the type of guy that overcomes any shortcomings like that.

Jilly Bohnson
05-17-2010, 03:20 PM
I found this interesting, it's kind of bad for baseball but good for us:


I recently overheard -- and then joined -- a conversation between a small group of scouts sitting behind home plate prior to a college game over the weekend. The initial topic was the draft and all of its uncertainties, but that quickly grew into a debate over how to fix the draft. The most interesting comments came when they began bantering back and forth about how the first round might go next month.

This is when I chimed in.

"It's going to be so bad," one of them said to the group. "[We could] get a top-15 guy 20 picks later. This might be the craziest [draft] I've ever been a part of."

So I had to ask: "What makes you say that?"


"It doesn't sound like anyone wants to spend the money," another scout quipped, tossing in an expletive for good measure. "If this were the NFL, I think even the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox might trade out of the first. And it's not that the draft is so bad -- it's not one of the better groups in recent years -- but too much is at stake, and there aren't enough helpers to go around."

What he meant by "helpers" is potential stars or college players who project to make quick work of any minor league training; think Mike Leake this season, or perhaps Stephen Strasburg in a few weeks.

So perhaps the first round will be even more unpredictable than we have come to expect, which would likely mean the second half of day one -- consisting of 50 total selections -- and early on day two could be as intriguing as the first round itself.

It could be good news for clubs without a first-round pick, and those that have extra picks between the first two rounds.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=mlb_draft&id=5194283

Maybe we get lucky and get a Pomeranz or something down at 16.

MLBfan24
05-17-2010, 08:54 PM
I don't think Pomeranz will drop that far, but Wilson or Ranuado might

faithfulfan
05-18-2010, 01:50 PM
I watched some scouting videos last night and the guy I like the most (of guys that should be available around our pick) is Wilson. Projects him as a power hitting RF with a strong arm. I would love to get a power hitting 1B but there aren't any that are worthy of a 1st round pick and those are the only players I have looked at to this point.

JB, do you see any first basemen that would be a steal in the other rounds?

MLBfan24
05-18-2010, 02:09 PM
Chevez Clarke would be someone to take a look at in the second round. He's been compared to Jimmy Rollins and Denard Span

Jilly Bohnson
05-18-2010, 02:18 PM
I watched some scouting videos last night and the guy I like the most (of guys that should be available around our pick) is Wilson. Projects him as a power hitting RF with a strong arm. I would love to get a power hitting 1B but there aren't any that are worthy of a 1st round pick and those are the only players I have looked at to this point.

JB, do you see any first basemen that would be a steal in the other rounds?

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?topic_id=8080130&content_id=7461545

Hunter Morris there seems pretty legit, and there's a few corner outfield guys that could get moved to first, but overall I haven't seen any real star caliber guys that are pure bats outside of Harper obviously.(and I know he's got more than a bat, but he'd be a star if his only tool was his bat is what I'm saying)

Marlin Bystro
05-20-2010, 06:30 PM
Remember this name....Mike Kvasnicka C/OF Minnesota.

Jilly Bohnson
05-20-2010, 07:36 PM
Remember this name....Mike Kvasnicka C/OF Minnesota.

http://baseballdraftreport.com/


Minnesota JR C Mike Kvasnicka

I try my best to balance reading as much as possible about the draft as I can while also not allowing any one publicationís rankings influence my own. Kvasnicka at third overall on the list of top college catchers seemed so clever before checking one of the big boysí lists (ESPN, I think) and seeing Kvasnicka up at the top as well. Oh well, clever doesnít really suit me all that well anyway. Kvasnickaís spot near the top is incredibly well deserved. Hereís what was said about him in the preseason:

JR OF/C Mike Kvasnicka (2010) possesses one of the longest swings of any major prospect in the 2010 draft. This is a good thing when he makes contact (Iíve heard both the thwack! of the bat in the Northwoods League and the ping! at Minnesota, both very impressive), but a very bad thing when up against pitchers with effective offspeed stuff. Kvasnicka has struck out 103 times in 438 college at bats. Any regular reader knows that Iím firmly entrenched in the strikeouts are no worse than any other kind of out camp, but that only really applies to big leaguers. There is something to be said for high-K rates being an indicator of poor contact abilities for minor leaguers and amateurs. If I was told Iíd be drafting the current iteration of Kvasnicka, then Iím not sure Iíd be too happy selecting a hitter who I wonít think will make enough contact to be a regular. Luckily, nobody is drafting the February version of any potential draft pick. Any team drafting Kvasnicka isnít getting the Kvasnicka of February, 2010; theyíll get the player he will be someday down the line. Given the fact that Kvasnicka is a plus athlete with a well-rounded toolset (good speed, decent arm, plus raw power), there should be plenty of teams interested to see if he can figure it all out professionally, long swing and strikeouts be damned. His draft stock (already pretty solid Ė round 4-7 is my current guess) gets a bump if teams buy into his defensive abilities behind the plate.

To recap: February Kvasnicka, the free swinging outfielder with the long swing, was an intriguing draft prospect, but May Kvasnicka, the catcher with the revamped swing and more mature approach, is a potential big league star. Again, all the positives from the preseason remain; his speed, arm, and power will all work at the big league level. Thatís the good news. The better news is the way Kvasnicka has worked to improve across the board this spring. The swing itself is so much better than the last time I saw it. Equally important, however, is the process that went into correcting his long, loopy swing in the first place. The realization of the existence of a correctable problem, implementation of a plan to fix said problem, and successful execution through hard work and practice is exactly what teams are looking for. Remember, most amateur players that are drafted high arenít prospects that came out of nowhere; these guys have been on the radar for years. Teams spend a lot of time, money, and energy trying to figure out which players in the draft pool have what it takes to successfully adjust their game over time. Kvasnickaís phenomenal transformation from intriguing draft prospect to potential big league star ought to give big league scouting staffs all over the country confidence that he is one of those players capable of constantly working to improve his game.

I'd like him in the third. Maybe the second.

Marlin Bystro
05-20-2010, 08:09 PM
This draft is really short on hitters. I would be shocked if Kvas lasts till the second round.

Jilly Bohnson
05-20-2010, 08:26 PM
This draft is really short on hitters. I would be shocked if Kvas lasts till the second round.

Eh, it's short on hitters but not on catchers. He could maybe last. But I don't think he's good enough to take at 16, so we probably shouldn't worry about him unless he does.

Marlin Bystro
05-20-2010, 08:34 PM
All that matters is whether Tim Wilkin thinks he is worthy of that pick and he has seen him multiple times for a reason.

Jilly Bohnson
05-20-2010, 08:37 PM
All that matters is whether Tim Wilkin thinks he is worthy of that pick and he has seen him multiple times for a reason.

Oh you're saying you think he's our pick? I assumed you were saying he was just a guy you like.

Kirel
05-20-2010, 09:23 PM
All that matters is whether Tim Wilkin thinks he is worthy of that pick and he has seen him multiple times for a reason.
Wilkin has probably seen alot of guys multiple times. I wouldn't read to much into it.

Mell413
05-20-2010, 10:42 PM
Not sure if it means much, but a site that I can't mention by name is saying that Jameson Taillon is apparently overpriced. I doubt he would make it to our pick anyway, but he would be a great pickup if he did.

Jilly Bohnson
05-22-2010, 03:54 AM
I watched Alex Wimmers pitch against Michigan today. Now I was sorta drunk, and I was obviously not paying full attention, but I wasn't impressed. He seemed to be a guy with a great curve and not much else. Not a guy I'd want at 16 personally.

Although again, it bears repeating, I've been very unhappy with both of our last two first rounders and so far they've turned out wonderfully, so take anything I say with a grain of salt.

Diehardcub
05-22-2010, 09:56 AM
I watched Alex Wimmers pitch against Michigan today. Now I was sorta drunk, and I was obviously not paying full attention, but I wasn't impressed. He seemed to be a guy with a great curve and not much else. Not a guy I'd want at 16 personally.

Although again, it bears repeating, I've been very unhappy with both of our last two first rounders and so far they've turned out wonderfully, so take anything I say with a grain of salt.

You didn't like the B. Jackson pick? I was happy to take him that late in the first round. Jackson had K issues (still does), but I thought he was too talented to pass up at that point. Now Cashner, I didn't like at the time. I mean, college reliever in first round? I know he had a big fastball and a good hammer hook, but I thought the increased velocity might have been a result of just moving to reliever. But I like both now. I really HATED the Colvin pick.

Jilly Bohnson
05-22-2010, 12:21 PM
You didn't like the B. Jackson pick? I was happy to take him that late in the first round. Jackson had K issues (still does), but I thought he was too talented to pass up at that point. Now Cashner, I didn't like at the time. I mean, college reliever in first round? I know he had a big fastball and a good hammer hook, but I thought the increased velocity might have been a result of just moving to reliever. But I like both now. I really HATED the Colvin pick.

He had big time K issues, he hadn't really hit good pitching, and the two reports I read didn't really mention his outstanding patience.

Jilly Bohnson
05-24-2010, 04:07 PM
Keith Law has his first mock draft up:

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=5214034

He has us taking RHP Alex Wimmers from Ohio State, since he's a polished middle of the rotation type starter that could move quickly.

Jilly Bohnson
05-24-2010, 04:26 PM
I was just thinking, can you imagine this draft if some of the big time high school guys from the 07 draft went to school? We could have all the guys who are in it now, plus Josh Vitters, Mike Moustakas, Jason Heyward, Matt Dominguez, Rick Porcello, and Madison Bumgarner. Imagine if half those guys went to school how unreal this draft would be.

Mell413
05-24-2010, 04:30 PM
JB- Do you have any idea what the ceiling for Garrett Wittels is? I know it's college baseball, but that hitting streak is impressive. I hear he's patient and has a good eye for the strike zone.

Jilly Bohnson
05-24-2010, 04:37 PM
I don't really know much about him except for the hitting streak. He's not on Law's top 100 and milb.com doesn't have a scouting report on him and those are pretty much my two sources this year since I didn't renew my BA subscription.

giventofly
05-24-2010, 04:43 PM
Remember this name....Mike Kvasnicka C/OF Minnesota.
Assuming his last name is pronounced the way I think it is, I know a family around my hometown with the same name that is just filled with ringers. Absolutely talented at everything they do, and one of the brothers actually got drafted I think.

Of course, I don't think he made it to the bigs ever.

CubbieSteve
05-24-2010, 04:55 PM
I really think we should trade up this year.

Jilly Bohnson
05-24-2010, 05:00 PM
I really think we should trade up this year.

Unfortunately you can't trade picks in MLB. It would be nice if you could though. Although this year after the top few guys there's not really anyone that's separated themselves.

CubbieSteve
05-24-2010, 05:05 PM
Unfortunately you can't trade picks in MLB. It would be nice if you could though. Although this year after the top few guys there's not really anyone that's separated themselves.

Haha yeah that was a half hearted attempt at a joke. I was going to add a smiley, but I don't want to be gay like that.

But yeah it would be a lot more fun if we could trade picks. Although I have a feeling teams like the Yankees and Red Sox or even us, would trade up to the top 5 every year with a team that couldn't afford to sign some guys...

Jilly Bohnson
05-25-2010, 05:39 PM
Haha yeah that was a half hearted attempt at a joke. I was going to add a smiley, but I don't want to be gay like that.

But yeah it would be a lot more fun if we could trade picks. Although I have a feeling teams like the Yankees and Red Sox or even us, would trade up to the top 5 every year with a team that couldn't afford to sign some guys...

Yeah, that's presumably the reason why it doesn't happen. For instance, Bryce Harper said in an interview he's always wanted to be a Yankee. Could you imagine if he pulled an Eli Manning and refused to be a National and demanded to be a Yankee? The system has enough issues, as cool as it would be in some situations it would unfortunately cause too many other problems.

Cubs420
05-26-2010, 12:20 PM
I just hope we take a pitcher, I trust Wilkin to make the right decision, he had a good track record with the Blue-Jays and he has stocked are system with some pretty good talent over the last few years...

Ron!n
05-26-2010, 01:49 PM
Anybody have any idea if we're targetting any Dominican players? This was on MLBTR, some interesting guys in there although they're mostly OF'ers.


1. Vicmal De La Cruz, OF. Has the best toolset of any player in this class. Upside as high as anyone.

2. Martin Steylon Peguero, SS. Hands down the best shortstop of this year's class.

3. Ariel Ovando, OF. – When two different scouts drop Darryl Strawberry comps, you take notice.

4. Phillips Castillo, OF. This outfielder is a lock for seven figures.

5. Wilmer Romero, OF. Still a bit of an unknown, but has the potential to move up on this list.

6. Eskarlin Vazquez, OF. Perhaps the most publicized player in this year's class. At 6'3", Vazquez has a projectable frame with good pop.

7. Jorge Feliz, RHP. A 92 mph fastball and feel for a curve earns him the highest pitcher’s spot.

8. Alberto Triunfel, SS. Little brother to Carlos Triunfel, Alberto also has Scott Boras as his agent.

9. Elvis Sanchez, 3B. His body has improved tremendously over the past year, allowing the possibility of sticking at third base for the long haul. If he continues to show off-the-charts power, it may be irrelevant.

T-10. Edwin Moreno, OF. Left-handed outfielder with pop and a strong body.

T-10. Luis Abad, RHP. Hitting 92 mph and weighing 160 pounds soaking wet, the 6'3" Abad is one of the most projectable pitchers you'll see.

T-10. Javier Pimentel, SS. A wide-shouldered shortstop with a solid bat and plenty of room for improvement.

Mell413
05-26-2010, 02:17 PM
Cubs are apparently targeting Peguero

Str1fe5
05-26-2010, 02:33 PM
I don't really know much about him except for the hitting streak. He's not on Law's top 100 and milb.com doesn't have a scouting report on him and those are pretty much my two sources this year since I didn't renew my BA subscription.

Wait. You didn't renew your BA subscription? Wow.

Jilly Bohnson
05-26-2010, 04:12 PM
Wait. You didn't renew your BA subscription? Wow.

Since I started to buy the handbook every year, basically the only thing the subscription's good for is the draft. So I put that money towards ESPN Insider, which has gotten pretty legit. TMI, Law, Grey, Churchill, plus a little bit of NFL stuff. I might do a one month subscription soon purely for the draft, but that'll be it. I just can't justify it when I barely use it regularly about 4 months a year.

Marlin Bystro
05-26-2010, 04:34 PM
Justin O'Connor high school catcher from Indiana is another interesting name that will be in the mix at 16.

MLBfan24
05-26-2010, 05:12 PM
Ranaudo's stock has been falling, what do you guys think about picking him

Tom Emanski
05-26-2010, 06:33 PM
Cubs are apparently targeting Peguero

Yeah and hopefully we target a few more of those guys LOL

CubbieSteve
05-26-2010, 07:28 PM
My brother's team is playing Granite City on Friday in their regionals and they (Granite City) have an absolute stud catcher by the name of Jake DePew. I've seen him play like twice over the years and he really looks solid. Tremendous hitter.

Just a name to keep an eye on for in the earlier rounds. I think it'd be cool if he signed with the Cubs.

cubsbullsbears2
05-28-2010, 03:38 PM
I am seeing a lot of mocks having us taking castellanos...which i assume would mean we would send vitters to 1B because castellanos projects to be a little above average there while vitters will be a little below average. still the guy i want-and have wanted for a few months now is austin wilson. To be honest this draft class is pretty shallow in terms of sure-fire future All stars in my opinion (minus harper, pomeranz and maybe grandal) With our resources i am certain we could sign wilson above slot to steal him away from his strong stanford commitment. With burke struggling this year (although i still have hopes for him) RF and 1B are really the only two ''holes'' in the system in my opinion and there arent too many potential stud players in the draft. we all know wilken loves athletes so im just praying we get wilson. the only reason he is slipping is because of signability concerns...but his bat is going to be amazing some day

cubsbullsbears2
05-28-2010, 04:29 PM
http://yankees.scout.com/2/969666.html

for anyone interested...austin wilson interview with a yankees employee. talks about signability, strengths, weaknesses etc. gosh i love this guy

cubsbullsbears2
05-28-2010, 04:35 PM
i should say "mlb draft expert" or so the article says but its the yankees section of scout.com

faithfulfan
05-28-2010, 09:09 PM
I really like Wilson also. I have seen quite a few mocks having us taking the OSU pitcher, Wimmers I think, and it also said he could be the one in this draft to make the big leagues right away. This years version of Leake.

Kirel
05-28-2010, 09:18 PM
I really like Wilson also. I have seen quite a few mocks having us taking the OSU pitcher, Wimmers I think, and it also said he could be the one in this draft to make the big leagues right away. This years version of Leake.
I really don't see a great point in taking a low upside, near ready pitcher. They are useful to have but this is a team that regularly spends a great deal on it's pitching to be above average and generally has enough arms kicking around to find a fringe-average arm or two at any time. Why spend a significant resource like a top draft pick on something the team isn't going to use? He's interesting, but ultimately I don't find that much appealing about him. He strikes me more as a value pick for a team lacking in pitching, not a team lacking power, both on the mound and on the diamond. He strikes me as the consummate draft-for-need guy.

Jilly Bohnson
05-28-2010, 11:15 PM
I really don't see a great point in taking a low upside, near ready pitcher. They are useful to have but this is a team that regularly spends a great deal on it's pitching to be above average and generally has enough arms kicking around to find a fringe-average arm or two at any time. Why spend a significant resource like a top draft pick on something the team isn't going to use? He's interesting, but ultimately I don't find that much appealing about him. He strikes me more as a value pick for a team lacking in pitching, not a team lacking power, both on the mound and on the diamond. He strikes me as the consummate draft-for-need guy.

Yeah, Wimmers would be someone for a team like the brewers to look at. For us though, if we go for pitching it needs to be potential front line pitching, at least in the first round. We have a ton of back of the rotation guys as it is.

cubsbullsbears2
05-29-2010, 01:33 PM
Yeah, Wimmers would be someone for a team like the brewers to look at. For us though, if we go for pitching it needs to be potential front line pitching, at least in the first round. We have a ton of back of the rotation guys as it is.

Yea but really the only high high upside pitcher that could be available at our pick is ranaudo...and he has stunk it up lately. although i dont necessarily want to wait 4 years for wilson to make the majors, i definitely think it would be well worth it. Aaron sanchez is also intriguing, but i dont like his control issues. same thing with stetson allie--although he throws 98 and has a pretty solid slider with a developing change. Another very intriguing guy for me is cameron bedrosian...96 mph fastball with a filthy slider and good poise on the mound--projected by some as a closer but also could be considered for starting with his upside as possibly a #2 or very good #3 if his change can develop into a plus or even average pitch. A little undersized, but if you can throw 96-for me, size is overrated.

Jilly Bohnson
05-29-2010, 02:58 PM
Yea but really the only high high upside pitcher that could be available at our pick is ranaudo...and he has stunk it up lately. although i dont necessarily want to wait 4 years for wilson to make the majors, i definitely think it would be well worth it. Aaron sanchez is also intriguing, but i dont like his control issues. same thing with stetson allie--although he throws 98 and has a pretty solid slider with a developing change. Another very intriguing guy for me is cameron bedrosian...96 mph fastball with a filthy slider and good poise on the mound--projected by some as a closer but also could be considered for starting with his upside as possibly a #2 or very good #3 if his change can develop into a plus or even average pitch. A little undersized, but if you can throw 96-for me, size is overrated.

I really like all those guys, particularly Bedrosian, because like you I think size is very overrated, but I'm more and more leaning towards the position player side of things unless Whitson makes it to us. And also, call me crazy, I kind of think we might end up with Eibner. I saw that on a mock on I think Andy Seiler's page and it makes a lot of sense considering Wilken's affinity for two way guys.

cubsbullsbears2
05-29-2010, 03:16 PM
I really like all those guys, particularly Bedrosian, because like you I think size is very overrated, but I'm more and more leaning towards the position player side of things unless Whitson makes it to us. And also, call me crazy, I kind of think we might end up with Eibner. I saw that on a mock on I think Andy Seiler's page and it makes a lot of sense considering Wilken's affinity for two way guys.

I agree with you and I actually would be pretty pleased with Eibner...he kind of reminds me of jay jackson in terms of make up and athleticism. I want a position player as do you but I really just dont see anyone worthy of our pick (that will likely be there) that has high upside besides wilson or maybe bryce brentz (although i am concerned with his level of competition) I like zach alford but we are already way too loaded in the middle of the infield...particularly at 2B. I really like Christian Yelich and think he could be a potential steal in this draft

Jilly Bohnson
05-29-2010, 03:25 PM
I agree with you and I actually would be pretty pleased with Eibner...he kind of reminds me of jay jackson in terms of make up and athleticism. I want a position player as do you but I really just dont see anyone worthy of our pick (that will likely be there) that has high upside besides wilson or maybe bryce brentz (although i am concerned with his level of competition) I like zach alford but we are already way too loaded in the middle of the infield...particularly at 2B. I really like Christian Yelich and think he could be a potential steal in this draft

I could see us taking Alvord and giving him a shot at C, kind of like the Brewers tried with Lawrie a few years ago. That'd be a very Wilken-like thing to do.

And I hadn't read about Yelich before you just mentioned him, but I'm liking what I'm reading. Especially if we gave him a shot in CF. He would need to spend a lot of time working on his arm but if it can get just playable in CF the bat would be great there. A great OBP with 15 homers a year out of CF would be wonderful.

MLBfan24
05-29-2010, 03:31 PM
I agree with you and I actually would be pretty pleased with Eibner...he kind of reminds me of jay jackson in terms of make up and athleticism. I want a position player as do you but I really just dont see anyone worthy of our pick (that will likely be there) that has high upside besides wilson or maybe bryce brentz (although i am concerned with his level of competition) I like zach alford but we are already way too loaded in the middle of the infield...particularly at 2B. I really like Christian Yelich and think he could be a potential steal in this draft

I agree Yelich could be a steal, he could be the lefty first basemen we've been looking for. Also, with his frame he could add on muscle and potentially be a 20-25 homer type of guy

cubsbullsbears2
05-29-2010, 03:33 PM
I could see us taking Alvord and giving him a shot at C, kind of like the Brewers tried with Lawrie a few years ago. That'd be a very Wilken-like thing to do.

And I hadn't read about Yelich before you just mentioned him, but I'm liking what I'm reading. Especially if we gave him a shot in CF. He would need to spend a lot of time working on his arm but if it can get just playable in CF the bat would be great there. A great OBP with 15 homers a year out of CF would be wonderful.

Yelich has shot up draft boards and is now considered a potential second round pick...he has drawn comparisons to mark grace. He is still developing and as you said could potentially reach 15-20 homers a year. If he could hit 280 with 20 homers and slug 450 while playing above average to plus defense at first i would leave him there. although as you say he could be an option for center as well.

Jilly Bohnson
05-29-2010, 03:36 PM
Yelich has shot up draft boards and is now considered a potential second round pick...he has drawn comparisons to mark grace. He is still developing and as you said could potentially reach 15-20 homers a year. If he could hit 280 with 20 homers and slug 450 while playing above average to plus defense at first i would leave him there. although as you say he could be an option for center as well.

Yeah, apparently he has the speed right now for it so I'd give him a shot there. And if his hitting ability is legit, mlb.com compared him to Grace and Olerud as a hitter, then even without a ton of power the bat should play at 1b.

Doogolas
05-29-2010, 03:40 PM
At first base? A guy with a .450SLG would have to AT LEAST be getting on base at a .400 clip to be worth a first round pick I think.

cubsbullsbears2
05-29-2010, 03:45 PM
At first base? A guy with a .450SLG would have to AT LEAST be getting on base at a .400 clip to be worth a first round pick I think.

I never said i wanted him in the first round. as of right now he is slotted to go in the 2-4 round range. where he would definitely be a merited selection. and he has potential 380 obp anyway...

cubsbullsbears2
05-29-2010, 03:47 PM
I think the more he fills out the less viable for cf he will be but thats just my opinion, even though as of now he definitely has the wheels to cover center.

Jilly Bohnson
05-29-2010, 03:50 PM
At first base? A guy with a .450SLG would have to AT LEAST be getting on base at a .400 clip to be worth a first round pick I think.

The comparisons drawn are Olerud and Grace. They're the poster boys for that type of player and obviously what you would be hoping for with him if he stuck at 1b.

cubsbullsbears2
05-29-2010, 04:02 PM
The comparisons drawn are Olerud and Grace. They're the poster boys for that type of player and obviously what you would be hoping for with him if he stuck at 1b.

exactly...he will never hit 30 homers, but frankly i dont think anyone outside harper in this draft will.

cubsbullsbears2
05-29-2010, 05:16 PM
A line of 280/375/460/835 is not out of the question. Although that is obviously not guaranteed i think thats around his ceiling. which is pretty damn good if you ask me

MLBfan24
05-29-2010, 06:58 PM
exactly...he will never hit 30 homers, but frankly i dont think anyone outside harper in this draft will.

Austin Wilson could easily put together at least a 30 homer season with his type of raw power, size, and work ethic.

cubsbullsbears2
05-29-2010, 07:02 PM
another guy i like is gary brown...the guy's got some serious serious wheels (ive seen him grading out between 65-70 in speed) and can hit too. he actually has some mild pop potential too.

cubsbullsbears2
05-29-2010, 07:15 PM
Austin Wilson could easily put together at least a 30 homer season with his type of raw power, size, and work ethic.

Sorry, forgot about wilson. but i see him more as a 25-30 homer guy anyway...but yes with his raw power he definitely could. isnt it amazing that we see 30 homers today like what we used to see 45-50? oh steroids...

Jilly Bohnson
05-31-2010, 12:46 PM
Mike (Chicago): Who do you see the Cubs picking?

Dave Perkin: The Cubs need to nail that 16th pick, because after that they have to twiddle their thumbs until the second round and pick number 65. I know they like Wilson, but they could go for any number of players. Pitching in this draft is a much safer bet than hitting, so my guess is they will snatch a pitcher.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/chat/2010/2610043.html

The bolded part is what really caught my eye.

Also, I saw on another board that BA's latest mock has us taking Karsten Whitson, which IMO is probably the best realistic scenario.

cubsbullsbears2
05-31-2010, 02:30 PM
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/chat/2010/2610043.html

The bolded part is what really caught my eye.

Also, I saw on another board that BA's latest mock has us taking Karsten Whitson, which IMO is probably the best realistic scenario.



I would LOVE to get Whitson, Wilson, or Bedrosian

StrandedCub
05-31-2010, 03:52 PM
16. Cubs - Stetson Allie (RHP) | St. Edward H.S. (Lakewood, Ohio)

The Cubs have looked equally at college and high school players this spring, and they like what they've seen from Allie. Whether he has impressed them enough for the Cubs to meet his asking price remains to be seen, but he is likely high on their short list, along with O'Conner, Cabrera, Whitson, and Vitek.


Fanhouse Mock Draft (http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/05/31/mock-draft-3-0-first-round-update/?sms_ss=twitter)

cubsbullsbears2
05-31-2010, 05:05 PM
I dont really want oconner because im fine with geo and ultimately maybe castillo in a year or two...i know in baseball you dont really draft based on need but i still wouldnt necessarily go the route of catcher, shortstop, or 2B just because we are moderately deep there. cabrera is pretty raw and not expected to stay at short anyway but he just screams bust to me. vitek would just be an average pick because he doesnt have the range for second (and wouldnt make the team there anyway) but doesnt have quite the speed to cover center yet not enough power for a corner OF spot...allie could be very very good if he could ever get his control in check. still would prefer whitson significantly...

cubsbullsbears2
05-31-2010, 05:15 PM
perfect scenario for me is we get wilson or whitson at 16 and yelich at 65. i will be ecstatic. could happen, will it? doubtful.

Jilly Bohnson
05-31-2010, 05:15 PM
Hopefully that fanhouse guy is wrong because, with the obvious exception of Whitson I don't like any of those guys at 16 except maybe O'Connor. Cabrera especially I do not want.

cubsbullsbears2
05-31-2010, 09:07 PM
I find it hard to believe wilken would even consider cabrera given just how raw he is as a hitter and how poor his pitch recognition is. thats not his track record at all...he likes much more polished hitters. o conner could be a pretty decent player someday, just isnt a needed

Str1fe5
06-01-2010, 09:00 AM
So like, the draft is today, right?

Ron!n
06-01-2010, 09:13 AM
So like, the draft is today, right?
No June 7th

hrubes20
06-01-2010, 10:53 AM
For those of you without an insider subscription, Keith Law has us taking Justin O'Connor with the 16th pick. His rationale was that Wilken loves taking two-way players, which O'Connor essentially is. I would be OK with the pick, as O'Connor would be a power bat if he was kept at C, or a power arm if he was moved back to a SP, but I don't agree with Law's rationale. Wilken takes two-way players, but not in the first couple rounds.

2009: First two-way player taken was Brooks Raley in the 6th.
2008: First two-way player taken was Jay Jackson in the 9th.
2007: No idea who the first two-way taken was, but it wasn't in the first 5 rounds.
2006 (which I believe was Wilken's first year with the Cubs): Once again, no idea, but it wasn't with any of the really early picks.

I know Wilken likes athletic players, so maybe that is what Law meant.

poodski
06-01-2010, 10:57 AM
As long as we take a hitter I will be okay with it, because I am a firm believer of TINSTAAPP.

cubsbullsbears2
06-01-2010, 11:33 AM
Frankly i dont like the oconner pick all that much. i would be content with it but just not excited. he doesnt have wilson going in the first round--i assume because of signability concerns. also he has yelich going to the yankees at 32--he shot up just as i thought he would

Mell413
06-01-2010, 12:41 PM
As long as we take a hitter I will be okay with it, because I am a firm believer of TINSTAAPP.

I'm going to sound like a moron asking this, but what does that mean?

Jilly Bohnson
06-01-2010, 12:42 PM
I find it hard to believe wilken would even consider cabrera given just how raw he is as a hitter and how poor his pitch recognition is. thats not his track record at all...he likes much more polished hitters. o conner could be a pretty decent player someday, just isnt a needed

Yeah, I hope you're right. And guys like that haven't been Wilken's MO so far, so hopefully that keeps up. But hearing us attached to him is a little scary.


For those of you without an insider subscription, Keith Law has us taking Justin O'Connor with the 16th pick. His rationale was that Wilken loves taking two-way players, which O'Connor essentially is. I would be OK with the pick, as O'Connor would be a power bat if he was kept at C, or a power arm if he was moved back to a SP, but I don't agree with Law's rationale. Wilken takes two-way players, but not in the first couple rounds.

2009: First two-way player taken was Brooks Raley in the 6th.
2008: First two-way player taken was Jay Jackson in the 9th.
2007: No idea who the first two-way taken was, but it wasn't in the first 5 rounds.
2006 (which I believe was Wilken's first year with the Cubs): Once again, no idea, but it wasn't with any of the really early picks.

I know Wilken likes athletic players, so maybe that is what Law meant.

Also, he seems to like two way guys as pitchers. He's a big fan of athletic pitchers, because athletic pitchers usually do a better job of repeating their delivery, which is the key to having good command.

I think O'Connor's a possibility because he's a good athlete at an up the middle position, but I don't think the two-way thing is the big deal.


As long as we take a hitter I will be okay with it, because I am a firm believer of TINSTAAPP.

I agree with it to an extent. The attrition rate is very very high which makes them risky. However, you're very unlikely to get a truly special arm if you don't take one in the first couple rounds. Verlander, Beckett, Lester, Dempster, Halladay, Hamels, Kershaw, Sabathia, Carpenter, Wainwright, and everyone in the Rays rotation except for Shields are all guys taken in the first three rounds.

There are exceptions, Roy Oswalt comes to mind, but to get a guy with a special arm that you can put at the front of your rotation, you usually need to draft them high, or sign them high out of the DR or Venezuela.

Jilly Bohnson
06-01-2010, 12:47 PM
I'm going to sound like a moron asking this, but what does that mean?

Don't worry you don't sound dumb asking that. It's something you never hear about until you start following the draft. It stands for "There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect." Basically, it says don't take pitchers with early picks, since the attrition rate is high and you are just as likely to have a guy who is a lower pick take a big step forward in their development and become really good. It has it's merits, but like I said in my last post I don't agree with it totally.

Basically, if you're asking me, tie goes to the position player. Kind of like drafting for need, you don't draft for need in the MLB draft, but if you've got two or three players you see as relatively equal talents, you take the one your system needs more, but you don't reach for a guy just because your system is thin in one area.

Jilly Bohnson
06-01-2010, 12:48 PM
Frankly i dont like the oconner pick all that much. i would be content with it but just not excited. he doesnt have wilson going in the first round--i assume because of signability concerns. also he has yelich going to the yankees at 32--he shot up just as i thought he would

That's where I am with O'Connor. I like him, so I won't be mad if we take him at 16, but there are most likely going to be several guys I like more ahead of him.

poodski
06-01-2010, 12:53 PM
I agree with it to an extent. The attrition rate is very very high which makes them risky. However, you're very unlikely to get a truly special arm if you don't take one in the first couple rounds. Verlander, Beckett, Lester, Dempster, Halladay, Hamels, Kershaw, Sabathia, Carpenter, Wainwright, and everyone in the Rays rotation except for Shields are all guys taken in the first three rounds.

There are exceptions, Roy Oswalt comes to mind, but to get a guy with a special arm that you can put at the front of your rotation, you usually need to draft them high, or sign them high out of the DR or Venezuela.

I just think its too risky. Cashner might work out, but I still don't feel it was a smart pick at where he was taken.

I just think they flame out too often. I would much rather take a couple 3's later in the draft than take a risk on a special arm. For every Halladay and Greinke there are many many Brazelton's and half the 2002 draft. Hell that 2002 draft kinda solidifies what I mean:


2002 1 1 FrRnd 1 Pirates Bryan Bullington RHP -0.2 6 3 0 .333 .667 16 0 6 5.57 1.74
2002 1 2 FrRnd 2 Devil Rays B.J. Upton SS 8.8 563 2072 55 .263 .758
2002 1 3 FrRnd 3 Reds Christopher Gruler (minors) RHP
2002 1 4 FrRnd 4 Orioles Adam Loewen LHP 0.9 1 2 0 .000 .000 35 8 8 5.38 1.64 0
2002 1 5 FrRnd 5 Expos Clint Everts (minors) RHP
2002 1 6 FrRnd 6 Royals Zack Greinke RHP 20.5 10 18 1 .222 .722 188 51 59 3.71 1.26 1
2002 1 7 FrRnd 7 Brewers Prince Fielder 1B 12.0 726 2567 167 .282 .923
2002 1 8 FrRnd 8 Tigers Scott Moore SS -0.8 46 107 4 .215 .610
2002 1 9 FrRnd 9 Rockies Jeff Francis LHP 6.0 126 236 0 .127 .337 133 52 45 4.70 1.43 0
2002 1 10 FrRnd 10 Rangers Drew Meyer SS -0.3 5 14 0 .214 .429

poodski
06-01-2010, 01:00 PM
Don't worry you don't sound dumb asking that. It's something you never hear about until you start following the draft. It stands for "There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect." Basically, it says don't take pitchers with early picks, since the attrition rate is high and you are just as likely to have a guy who is a lower pick take a big step forward in their development and become really good. It has it's merits, but like I said in my last post I don't agree with it totally.

Basically, if you're asking me, tie goes to the position player. Kind of like drafting for need, you don't draft for need in the MLB draft, but if you've got two or three players you see as relatively equal talents, you take the one your system needs more, but you don't reach for a guy just because your system is thin in one area.

And hell think about how many major league pitchers were former position players. We have two on our team, with another one closing at AAA.

Kirel
06-01-2010, 01:02 PM
I agree with it to an extent. The attrition rate is very very high which makes them risky. However, you're very unlikely to get a truly special arm if you don't take one in the first couple rounds. Verlander, Beckett, Lester, Dempster, Halladay, Hamels, Kershaw, Sabathia, Carpenter, Wainwright, and everyone in the Rays rotation except for Shields are all guys taken in the first three rounds.

There are exceptions, Roy Oswalt comes to mind, but to get a guy with a special arm that you can put at the front of your rotation, you usually need to draft them high, or sign them high out of the DR or Venezuela.
Yeah, it's a risk thing.

When you look over the last dozen drafts or so the first round pitchers flame out or end up in the middle of the rotation more than they turn into stars.

That said, I think it's a bit disingenious to say that TINSTAAP isn't valid because the top end arms come in the earlier rounds. The top talent always goes in the earler rounds, so it's definitly weighed towards early rounds having more successes. Most of the chances are simply taken there because teams are overly optimistic, not because it's strategically right.

The question comes down to what will produce more big league, taking good bats in your first 5 picks and taknig 50 pitchers in the next 45 picks or the other way around(I realize it's impractical). I'd definatly prefer lots of late round pitchers to a few good early picks.

If I was forced to produce a strict draft strategy I'd probably want to go hitters the first 3 rounds(best overall bats avaliable) and then rounds 4-20 or so grab the best pitchers remaining on the board and sign as many as possible regardless of risk or bonus demands, and then start drafting for organizational depth.

poodski
06-01-2010, 01:09 PM
If I was forced to produce a strict draft strategy I'd probably want to go hitters the first 3 rounds(best overall bats avaliable) and then rounds 4-20 or so grab the best pitchers remaining on the board and sign as many as possible regardless of risk or bonus demands, and then start drafting for organizational depth.

I think thats similar to what I would do. Sometimes I would take the pitcher like Prior and Strasburgh I wouldnt pass up on, but really past that I am most likely taking a hitter, and at that most likely taking a college hitter.

Then later throw money at pitching spects and hope you get one to make a decent impact on your major league team as a starter.

Jilly Bohnson
06-01-2010, 01:23 PM
I just think its too risky. Cashner might work out, but I still don't feel it was a smart pick at where he was taken.

I just think they flame out too often. I would much rather take a couple 3's later in the draft than take a risk on a special arm. For every Halladay and Greinke there are many many Brazelton's and half the 2002 draft. Hell that 2002 draft kinda solidifies what I mean:

If you go outside that top 10 though you get several more good major league pitchers in the first round. Saunders, Kazmir, Cain, Hamels, and Joe Blanton's even pretty decent. Kazmir was, and Cain and Hamels are, front of the rotation pitchers. I mean yeah the risk is high, but the risk is still pretty high with all players. And if you want impact talent in your rotation, you're nearly forced to take the plunge.


And hell think about how many major league pitchers were former position players. We have two on our team, with another one closing at AAA.

To be fair we're the exception in that regard, not the rule. Like you point out we have 3 on our 40 man, I doubt there's more than 5 more across the other 25 teams' 40 mans.


Yeah, it's a risk thing.

When you look over the last dozen drafts or so the first round pitchers flame out or end up in the middle of the rotation more than they turn into stars.

That said, I think it's a bit disingenious to say that TINSTAAP isn't valid because the top end arms come in the earlier rounds. The top talent always goes in the earler rounds, so it's definitly weighed towards early rounds having more successes. Most of the chances are simply taken there because teams are overly optimistic, not because it's strategically right.

The question comes down to what will produce more big league, taking good bats in your first 5 picks and taknig 50 pitchers in the next 45 picks or the other way around(I realize it's impractical). I'd definatly prefer lots of late round pitchers to a few good early picks.

If I was forced to produce a strict draft strategy I'd probably want to go hitters the first 3 rounds(best overall bats avaliable) and then rounds 4-20 or so grab the best pitchers remaining on the board and sign as many as possible regardless of risk or bonus demands, and then start drafting for organizational depth.

Yeah, I won't say it's a bad theory, I just don't totally agree with it. Pitchers fail a lot, mostly due to injuries causing their stuff to regress. That said, as a team that will most likely have a top 5 payroll heading into the foreseeable future, I think we are the type of team that should engage in a little more risk/reward in the draft. We're in a position where we should be looking for impact talent, particularly in the early rounds. If that means we have to have a little bit too expensive bench or bullpen in a few years I think it's worth it for the increased chances of nabbing a Verlander or a Greinke. I mean if the best player available is a hitter obviously go ahead. But if our options at 16 are something like Karsten Whitson, Austin Wilson, or Justin O'Connor, I'm going to take Whitson like 90 times out of 100. I agree to an extent but overall I think the best strategy is simply best player available.

Jilly Bohnson
06-01-2010, 01:31 PM
I think thats similar to what I would do. Sometimes I would take the pitcher like Prior and Strasburgh I wouldnt pass up on, but really past that I am most likely taking a hitter, and at that most likely taking a college hitter.

Then later throw money at pitching spects and hope you get one to make a decent impact on your major league team as a starter.

I get what you're saying, and certainly, it has a lot of merit, but I just don't like cutting off so many players from your draft board. I mean this draft in particular kills your approach. If you want to focus on college position players that are likely to be around at our pick, you're probably looking at Christian Colon, Austin Wates, Bryce Brentz, or Brett Eibner. All are nice players, but you'd be passing on guys like Austin Wilson and possible Karsten Whitson who are IMO clearly better talents. I realize that you would change your strategy if faced with a situation like that, but where? Where does a college heavy TINSTAAPP approach end and BPA begin?

poodski
06-01-2010, 01:42 PM
I get what you're saying, and certainly, it has a lot of merit, but I just don't like cutting off so many players from your draft board. I mean this draft in particular kills your approach. If you want to focus on college position players that are likely to be around at our pick, you're probably looking at Christian Colon, Austin Wates, Bryce Brentz, or Brett Eibner. All are nice players, but you'd be passing on guys like Austin Wilson and possible Karsten Whitson who are IMO clearly better talents. I realize that you would change your strategy if faced with a situation like that, but where? Where does a college heavy TINSTAAPP approach end and BPA begin?

I guess I would just rank all players on a scale of 20-80 or whatever you want, and a HS pitcher might lose lets say 3 points off that scale, a college pitcher 2 points, a HS hitter 1 point and dont touch a college hitter.

I mean of course there becomes a point in which you take a pitcher, you arent just going to pass on them forever, and if you have a HS pitcher at a 77 I would probably take him over a 73 hitter. It kinda comes back to you talking about breaking ties. If there is a tie I give it to the College hitter, then HS hitter, then college pitcher, then HS pitcher, then organizational needs.

Now starting round 3 or 4 I start taking the Jay Jackson's and Chris Carpenter's of the world. Even as bad as Samardjiza turned out (at least thus far) I love the draft because it was a risk and it was in the 5th round. He had first-second round talent, but football scared people off. It was an expensive risk, and looks to be a failed risk, but I would do that again if given the chance. Especially not having a 2nd, 3rd or 4th round pick.

Jilly Bohnson
06-01-2010, 02:48 PM
I guess I would just rank all players on a scale of 20-80 or whatever you want, and a HS pitcher might lose lets say 3 points off that scale, a college pitcher 2 points, a HS hitter 1 point and dont touch a college hitter.

I mean of course there becomes a point in which you take a pitcher, you arent just going to pass on them forever, and if you have a HS pitcher at a 77 I would probably take him over a 73 hitter. It kinda comes back to you talking about breaking ties. If there is a tie I give it to the College hitter, then HS hitter, then college pitcher, then HS pitcher, then organizational needs.

Now starting round 3 or 4 I start taking the Jay Jackson's and Chris Carpenter's of the world. Even as bad as Samardjiza turned out (at least thus far) I love the draft because it was a risk and it was in the 5th round. He had first-second round talent, but football scared people off. It was an expensive risk, and looks to be a failed risk, but I would do that again if given the chance. Especially not having a 2nd, 3rd or 4th round pick.

Gotchya. That works, just like I said before not the way I'd go. If there's a 75 on the board and there's no other 75s, I'm taking the 75, although I understand why you're doing what you're doing.

Brad IBCB
06-01-2010, 03:06 PM
Is the draft on TV this year?

Ron!n
06-01-2010, 03:08 PM
Is the draft on TV this year?
Should be. MLBnetwork i believe.

Brad IBCB
06-01-2010, 03:39 PM
should be. Mlbnetwork i believe.

fml.

cubsbullsbears2
06-01-2010, 03:46 PM
Basically to sum up my opinion on the pitching vs. hitting issue is that we as an organization are very very deep in pitching right now but lack a lot of front of the rotation talent. If that talent is there in the first round you take it, even though pitchers virtually always pose more risk than position players--especially in the early rounds. i might take whitson over wilson but that is frankly the only player potentially available at our pick that i would take over wilson. wilson's potential is just too high to ignore at 16, regardless of signability (we have enough money so dont give me that). whitson is going to be fantastic but unfortunately i dont think he will fall to us...

Mell413
06-01-2010, 03:46 PM
Don't worry you don't sound dumb asking that. It's something you never hear about until you start following the draft. It stands for "There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect." Basically, it says don't take pitchers with early picks, since the attrition rate is high and you are just as likely to have a guy who is a lower pick take a big step forward in their development and become really good. It has it's merits, but like I said in my last post I don't agree with it totally.

Basically, if you're asking me, tie goes to the position player. Kind of like drafting for need, you don't draft for need in the MLB draft, but if you've got two or three players you see as relatively equal talents, you take the one your system needs more, but you don't reach for a guy just because your system is thin in one area.

So is that similar to the Chad Bradford chapter in Moneyball then? I do agree with the concept in some respect. However with how our farm situation is currently I think we do need that frontline pitching prospect. I know we don't have the prospects at first, but there's no first baseman worthy of drafting at 16. I think we could be in the position to take a chance on someone like Ranaudo. We probably lack a power hitting OF, but I do think the frontline pitcher is more of a need. I wouldn't be opposed to taking a pitcher if Brentz is off the board. Unless I missed him in that fanhouse mock draft I didn't see Cole in there. From what I've read he's a potential front of the rotation guy. I'm getting to the point where I trust Wilken.

poodski
06-01-2010, 03:55 PM
So is that similar to the Chad Bradford chapter in Moneyball then? I do agree with the concept in some respect. However with how our farm situation is currently I think we do need that frontline pitching prospect. I know we don't have the prospects at first, but there's no first baseman worthy of drafting at 16. I think we could be in the position to take a chance on someone like Ranaudo. We probably lack a power hitting OF, but I do think the frontline pitcher is more of a need. I wouldn't be opposed to taking a pitcher if Brentz is off the board. Unless I missed him in that fanhouse mock draft I didn't see Cole in there. From what I've read he's a potential front of the rotation guy. I'm getting to the point where I trust Wilken.

Billy Beane was very big on not taking HS pitchers. He didnt really invent TINSTAAPP, but he might have been the first to put it to good use.

FG did a nice little study on how much WAR a player attributes, while under taem control, given what they were on draft day (HS pitcher, COL better, etc.) for first rounders, their results were as such.


College Hitters 0.9
College Pitchers 0.6
HS Hitters 0.8
HS Pitchers 0.4

Assuming each player is under team control for 6 years, a college hitter was worth 3 wins more than a HS pitcher. Thats from 90-99.

Here is the link: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-should-the-pirates-do-at-2/

Jilly Bohnson
06-01-2010, 04:01 PM
So is that similar to the Chad Bradford chapter in Moneyball then? I do agree with the concept in some respect. However with how our farm situation is currently I think we do need that frontline pitching prospect. I know we don't have the prospects at first, but there's no first baseman worthy of drafting at 16. I think we could be in the position to take a chance on someone like Ranaudo. We probably lack a power hitting OF, but I do think the frontline pitcher is more of a need. I wouldn't be opposed to taking a pitcher if Brentz is off the board. Unless I missed him in that fanhouse mock draft I didn't see Cole in there. From what I've read he's a potential front of the rotation guy. I'm getting to the point where I trust Wilken.

If I remember right then yeah that chapter sort of deals with this. Although even in that book it's kind of funny he basically threw a conniption because they took Jeremy Bonderman when he ended up being damn good for a few years.

And yeah, I'm nearly to the point where I'll trust Wilken implicitly. He's done outstanding so far. Even Colvin over Snider is starting to look not so bad.

Ron!n
06-01-2010, 04:09 PM
fml.
They usually stream it on MLB.com anyways.

mg420
06-02-2010, 08:47 AM
imo, the cubs already have a wimmers type guy in their system:http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100602&content_id=10706708&vkey=news_milb&fext=.jsp

hope they go for the best position player available instead of a pitcher.

Kirel
06-02-2010, 11:29 AM
imo, the cubs already have a wimmers type guy in their system:http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100602&content_id=10706708&vkey=news_milb&fext=.jsp

hope they go for the best position player available instead of a pitcher.
As much as I don't like the idea of WImmers, Bibens-Dirkx is not reason to pass on him.

behindmydesk
06-02-2010, 11:39 AM
Billy Beane was very big on not taking HS pitchers. He didnt really invent TINSTAAPP, but he might have been the first to put it to good use.

FG did a nice little study on how much WAR a player attributes, while under taem control, given what they were on draft day (HS pitcher, COL better, etc.) for first rounders, their results were as such.



Assuming each player is under team control for 6 years, a college hitter was worth 3 wins more than a HS pitcher. Thats from 90-99.

Here is the link: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-should-the-pirates-do-at-2/

He didn't take high school players much, and def not HS pitchers, because their price to return was far to risky, and he didn't have the money to waste. He's since changed that a bit, hence giving the biggest signing bonus to a Latin Player in Michael Ynoa at 16 years old.

poodski
06-02-2010, 11:55 AM
He didn't take high school players much, and def not HS pitchers, because their price to return was far to risky, and he didn't have the money to waste. He's since changed that a bit, hence giving the biggest signing bonus to a Latin Player in Michael Ynoa at 16 years old.

I think getting Ynoa is a totally different situation than drafting someone.

Kirel
06-02-2010, 12:00 PM
If I remember right then yeah that chapter sort of deals with this. Although even in that book it's kind of funny he basically threw a conniption because they took Jeremy Bonderman when he ended up being damn good for a few years.

And yeah, I'm nearly to the point where I'll trust Wilken implicitly. He's done outstanding so far. Even Colvin over Snider is starting to look not so bad.
Moreso due to Sniders failure than Colvins success.

Colvin still has yet to do anythign impressive in the bigs, IMHO. He's still carrying around a K% that suggests Chris Young way more than it does even Marlon Byrd.

cowboydoc45
06-02-2010, 12:18 PM
Moreso due to Sniders failure than Colvins success.

Colvin still has yet to do anythign impressive in the bigs, IMHO. He's still carrying around a K% that suggests Chris Young way more than it does even Marlon Byrd.

I am not sure if I am doing the number correct (I slept through a lot of my statistics classes), but when I look at the numbers Colvin has had just under half of the ABs that Soriano has had (and yes, I know that Soriano is streaky), and they are alarmingly simmilar. If Colvin continues to put up those kind of numbers... lets just say after looking at them a little closer, the kid needs to be playing. The 25 pounds of muscle he put on have helped him drastically.

Kirel
06-02-2010, 01:00 PM
I am not sure if I am doing the number correct (I slept through a lot of my statistics classes), but when I look at the numbers Colvin has had just under half of the ABs that Soriano has had (and yes, I know that Soriano is streaky), and they are alarmingly simmilar. If Colvin continues to put up those kind of numbers... lets just say after looking at them a little closer, the kid needs to be playing. The 25 pounds of muscle he put on have helped him drastically.
At the moment Colvin is carrying a .307 IsoP. Which is higher than SOriano ever had, infact it's heading into Sosa territory. I doubt he keeps it up.

Colvin's power is gonig to fall off, he strikes outan assload and his BABIP is going to fall. He's kept his walk rate up, which is nice to see(even in a small sample), but he's still striking out 33% of the time and relying on a HR/FB rate that mirrors Bonds in his 70 homerun season(and that would currently lead the majors if he qualified).

Only two full timers stirking out over 30% of the time are hitting over .270. Colby Rasmus is hitting .279 on a .385 BABIP and Austin Kearns is hitting .288 on a .402.

You take Colvin down to more reasonable, yet optimistic, numbers and he very much looks like a .260/.340/.450 hitter or so. Which is better than I gave him credit for, but probably not better than any current Cubs outfielder. Pessimistically, without the extreme power backing, his batting average may slip into the .240s and his walk rate may tail off, giving you a .240/.290/.410 hitter.

Jilly Bohnson
06-02-2010, 01:43 PM
Moreso due to Sniders failure than Colvins success.

Colvin still has yet to do anythign impressive in the bigs, IMHO. He's still carrying around a K% that suggests Chris Young way more than it does even Marlon Byrd.

Yeah, but that's kind of beside the point IMO. He got a lot of flack, and rightfully so, for Colvin over Snider. But if Colvin does better than Snider you have to give him props for that.

I do agree that Colvin's K rate so far has been atrocious, and is a giant red flag. Although if he played every day that'd probably come down. But Snider's had his own problems making contact, and unlike Colvin he's not a plus defender. He NEEDS his bat to be productive and so far he hasn't been.

Kirel
06-02-2010, 01:51 PM
Yeah, but that's kind of beside the point IMO. He got a lot of flack, and rightfully so, for Colvin over Snider. But if Colvin does better than Snider you have to give him props for that.

I do agree that Colvin's K rate so far has been atrocious, and is a giant red flag. Although if he played every day that'd probably come down. But Snider's had his own problems making contact, and unlike Colvin he's not a plus defender. He NEEDS his bat to be productive and so far he hasn't been.
Yeah but at the time it was fairly clear that Snider was the better prospect at draft time, and Snider is still only what 22 to Colvins 24. Snider isn't donig that well, but 2 years from now when Snider dvelops a bit more, whos to say? Colvin wasn't exactly setting the world on fire as a 22 year old either.

Colvin has some value, and given how disappointing the draft looks to have been it may work out ok, I still don't think he's a legitimate starting MLB outfielder for most teams.

Jilly Bohnson
06-02-2010, 02:02 PM
Yeah but at the time it was fairly clear that Snider was the better prospect at draft time, and Snider is still only what 22 to Colvins 24. Snider isn't donig that well, but 2 years from now when Snider dvelops a bit more, whos to say? Colvin wasn't exactly setting the world on fire as a 22 year old either.

Colvin has some value, and given how disappointing the draft looks to have been it may work out ok, I still don't think he's a legitimate starting MLB outfielder for most teams.

Oh yeah it's definitely early, it's just that that pick is the biggest pockmark on Wilken's tenure here, and at the moment even that isn't looking so bad. Wilken's already at the point where I'll give him the benefit of the doubt, and with another good draft he'll probably be at the point where I trust him implicitly. The man's been a rock star so far.

Also, I just renewed my BA subscription for three months to read all their draft nonsense, if anyone has anyone they're wondering about just ask.

Kirel
06-02-2010, 02:13 PM
Oh yeah it's definitely early, it's just that that pick is the biggest pockmark on Wilken's tenure here, and at the moment even that isn't looking so bad. Wilken's already at the point where I'll give him the benefit of the doubt, and with another good draft he'll probably be at the point where I trust him implicitly. The man's been a rock star so far.

Also, I just renewed my BA subscription for three months to read all their draft nonsense, if anyone has anyone they're wondering about just ask.
I'll wait for some draft dividends to pay out. The Cubs best recent results have been international free agents

I like Wilken so far, and I like the Cubs more aggresive approach to drafting, I just still don't like Colvin very much. I suspect that in a couple years he's gonig to be the new "Matt Murton" joke among some here.

faithfulfan
06-02-2010, 02:15 PM
I just saw on milb.com their mock draft has us taking Asher Wojciechowski RHP The Citidel. The report they have on him says he could be quick through the system but projects him more as a set up man.

poodski
06-02-2010, 02:16 PM
I just saw on milb.com their mock draft has us taking Asher Wojciechowski RHP The Citidel. The report they have on him says he could be quick through the system but projects him more as a set up man.

So Andrew Cashner?

Jilly Bohnson
06-02-2010, 02:25 PM
I'll wait for some draft dividends to pay out. The Cubs best recent results have been international free agents

I like Wilken so far, and I like the Cubs more aggresive approach to drafting, I just still don't like Colvin very much. I suspect that in a couple years he's gonig to be the new "Matt Murton" joke among some here.

Fair enough. I'm cautiously optimistic with how patient he's been so far in the majors.


So Andrew Cashner?

Pretty much. The breaking ball isn't quite as good though.

Kirel
06-02-2010, 02:26 PM
Fair enough. I'm cautiously optimistic with how patient he's been so far in the majors.



Pretty much. The breaking ball isn't quite as good though.
Murton was paitent too.

Colvin is two months of a .240 BA away frmo being the teams whipping boy.

Jilly Bohnson
06-02-2010, 02:32 PM
Murton was paitent too.

Colvin is two months of a .240 BA away frmo being the teams whipping boy.

I think Murton was more divisive from the beginning. He hit like a 2b and played LF. Not to mention his defense was considered by many to be pretty terrible. Also the ginger thing probably didn't help.

Kirel
06-02-2010, 02:33 PM
I think Murton was more divisive from the beginning. He hit like a 2b and played LF. Not to mention his defense was considered by many to be pretty terrible. Also the ginger thing probably didn't help.
Yeah, but it got really bad when he started to struggle.

I will give you taht Colvin hits like an OF atleast. Jacque Jones maybe, but an OF none hte less.

Jilly Bohnson
06-02-2010, 02:37 PM
Yeah, but it got really bad when he started to struggle.

I will give you taht Colvin hits like an OF atleast. Jacque Jones maybe, but an OF none hte less.

Cubs fans are extremely fickle. I mean look how fast they're turning on Aramis.

I think unless you're Derrek Lee or Mark Derosa if you struggle for a prolonged period they will come down on you.

mg420
06-02-2010, 02:48 PM
Cubs fans are extremely fickle. I mean look how fast they're turning on Aramis.

I think unless you're Derrek Lee or Mark Derosa if you struggle for a prolonged period they will come down on you.

100+ years of futility will do that to you-especially when you look at what teams like the marlins have done in their extremely short tenure on very limited resources.

gocubs2118
06-02-2010, 02:49 PM
Cubs fans are extremely fickle. I mean look how fast they're turning on Aramis.

I think unless you're Derrek Lee or Mark Derosa if you struggle for a prolonged period they will come down on you.

Are you joking? You don't think people have come down on Lee?

cowboydoc45
06-02-2010, 02:52 PM
Are you joking? You don't think people have come down on Lee?

Actually, I think cubs fans are fickle even toward DeRosa and Lee. I remember until last year when he was a DP machine, most fans were down on him (and some still jokingly do this) calling him DP Lee. There were even people calling for him to be benched in favor of the Hoff... (we see how that would have worked).

Right now, I am not against Lee, or Ramierez, but I think they need to swallow a little pride, and either ask to be moved down in the order (neither are producing like middle of the order guys, and guys at the lower end are...) or take some time in the cages with Jaramillo. The only player on the team right now that I really don't like is Grablow, and he has finally been "dl'ed"

Jilly Bohnson
06-02-2010, 02:54 PM
100+ years of futility will do that to you-especially when you look at what teams like the marlins have done in their extremely short tenure on very limited resources.

It shouldn't matter. When you're talking about the guy who has been your best player for the past 6 years getting on his *** after a month is dumb. But sure enough people were already all over Aramis before the calender even hit May.


Are you joking? You don't think people have come down on Lee?

That masses don't really seem to be that down on him. Sure people on here are, but if you ask Joe Cubsfan I don't think he'll ***** about Lee nearly as much as Rammy or Z. Although I make it a point not to listen to the radio or Dave Kaplan, so maybe it's there and I simply haven't seen it.

cowboydoc45
06-02-2010, 02:59 PM
It shouldn't matter. When you're talking about the guy who has been your best player for the past 6 years getting on his *** after a month is dumb. But sure enough people were already all over Aramis before the calender even hit May.



That masses don't really seem to be that down on him. Sure people on here are, but if you ask Joe Cubsfan I don't think he'll ***** about Lee nearly as much as Rammy or Z. Although I make it a point not to listen to the radio or Dave Kaplan, so maybe it's there and I simply haven't seen it.

The problem is... it's now June, and Ramierez is still well below the Mendoza line... when your clean up guy is batting .162 (yes I know that is a batting average, yes I know there are better stats, yes I know the rest of them suck just as much right now)... and hasn't shown any signs of improvement (yes his LD# are up.. but they aren't falling, bad BABIP maybe? luck can't be this much of a factor in his bat)

gocubs2118
06-02-2010, 03:05 PM
Jon Heyman has us taking Josh Sale.

chicagofan71
06-02-2010, 03:11 PM
Pretty much. The breaking ball isn't quite as good though.

I'm sure he could a poor man's Drew Storen for us. Come up by middle of next year, be a solid setup guy. I'd like the pick

cowboydoc45
06-02-2010, 03:13 PM
.

hrubes20
06-02-2010, 03:14 PM
Well, word gets leaked out every year on which prospects the Cubs are targeting. The past 3 1st rounders had been strongly linked to us about a week before the draft. So far, I have only heard of Karsten Whitson and Justin O'Connor. I highly doubt Whitson makes it to 16, though. Has anyone else heard of any links to the Cubs?

Kirel
06-02-2010, 03:16 PM
I'm sure he could a poor man's Drew Storen for us. Come up by middle of next year, be a solid setup guy. I'd like the pick
Why, in heavens name, do the Cubs need to waste a draft pick on acquiring yet another potentail setup arm?

Going that route is absolutly inexcusable.

hrubes20
06-02-2010, 03:18 PM
:confused:

Maybe the best hitter in the HS class this year. He has big time power potential, and his hit tool and plate discipline are supposedly solid. However, he doesn't have a defensive position. He's a less-athletic, lefty version of Ryan Braun, which I would gladly take.

BDawk4Prez
06-02-2010, 03:19 PM
Bryce Harper.

Make it happen.

gocubs2118
06-02-2010, 03:19 PM
Maybe the best hitter in the HS class this year. He has big time power potential, and his hit tool and plate discipline are supposedly solid. However, he doesn't have a defensive position. He's a less-athletic, lefty version of Ryan Braun, which I would gladly take.

So, Josh Vitters?

hrubes20
06-02-2010, 03:22 PM
So, Josh Vitters?

Better plate discipline, supposedly. And more power potential with likely less average.

chicagofan71
06-02-2010, 03:24 PM
My guy on my wish list this year is 2B Kolbrin Vitek. There's a shot he won't reach us, but if the Rangers take Sale and the Padres take someone else like Choice, we could take him. He flat out hits. IMO he might be able to get through the minors rather quickly too.

Sale to me seems like he could go higher, but I'd be happy with that pick

Tehjosha
06-02-2010, 03:27 PM
My guy on my wish list this year is 2B Kolbrin Vitek. There's a shot he won't reach us, but if the Rangers take Sale and the Padres take someone else like Choice, we could take him. He flat out hits. IMO he might be able to get through the minors rather quickly too.

Sale to me seems like he could go higher, but I'd be happy with that pick

I would be very happy with Vitek, but I don't see him falling to us. I would love that pick, though.

chicagofan71
06-02-2010, 03:30 PM
Well, word gets leaked out every year on which prospects the Cubs are targeting. The past 3 1st rounders had been strongly linked to us about a week before the draft. So far, I have only heard of Karsten Whitson and Justin O'Connor. I highly doubt Whitson makes it to 16, though. Has anyone else heard of any links to the Cubs?

I haven't read through the first 9 pages of this thread, but I really, really, don't like High School pitchers

Jilly Bohnson
06-02-2010, 03:41 PM
Jon Heyman has us taking Josh Sale.

I doubt he makes it to us. But that'd be nice.


I'm sure he could a poor man's Drew Storen for us. Come up by middle of next year, be a solid setup guy. I'd like the pick

You'd have to give him a chance to start, like Cashner you'd want to make sure the the change or split won't take. Also, you'd want to get him innings to improve the command.


Well, word gets leaked out every year on which prospects the Cubs are targeting. The past 3 1st rounders had been strongly linked to us about a week before the draft. So far, I have only heard of Karsten Whitson and Justin O'Connor. I highly doubt Whitson makes it to 16, though. Has anyone else heard of any links to the Cubs?

Whitson has faded lately and is probably not a top 10 guy anymore, so he has a decent chance of falling to us. But yeah, I think O'Connor has to be considered the favorite at this point. Although I did hear mention of Wilson on I think mlbfanhouse, so he's a possibility.


My guy on my wish list this year is 2B Kolbrin Vitek. There's a shot he won't reach us, but if the Rangers take Sale and the Padres take someone else like Choice, we could take him. He flat out hits. IMO he might be able to get through the minors rather quickly too.

Sale to me seems like he could go higher, but I'd be happy with that pick

Eww, I don't like Vitek. Way too much of a tweener for #16 IMO. He's a nice hitter, but probably not enough to be more than an average corner outfielder. Has decent speed, but probably not enough for center once he puts on a little weight, and he apparently there's no chance he sticks in the infield. He's a poor man's Zach Cox, not worth a first round pick IMO.

Tehjosha
06-02-2010, 04:01 PM
Eww, I don't like Vitek. Way too much of a tweener for #16 IMO. He's a nice hitter, but probably not enough to be more than an average corner outfielder. Has decent speed, but probably not enough for center once he puts on a little weight, and apparently there's no chance he sticks in the infield. He's a poor man's Zach Cox, not worth a first round pick IMO.

I had thought that I read somewhere that his power was rated as above average for a middle infielder, and I don't remember the exact number, but I want to say that it was rated at a 60/65 on the power scale.

Also, that there was a better chance than not that he would be able to stick at 2B. Above average glove, average arm.

I'll look and see if I can find it again, but maybe I'm thinking of someone else?

hrubes20
06-02-2010, 04:10 PM
Whitson has faded lately and is probably not a top 10 guy anymore, so he has a decent chance of falling to us. But yeah, I think O'Connor has to be considered the favorite at this point. Although I did hear mention of Wilson on I think mlbfanhouse, so he's a possibility.

That's good news about Wilson. I would gladly take him.

Where did you read this about Whitson? I read a report published yesterday that said he was blowing it up at some FL prep showcase. He was sitting at 94, touching 96, with fantastic control. Struck out fellow prospect Yordy Cabrera, too. A.J. Cole is losing a ton of steam, though. He stunk it up at the showcase.

Jilly Bohnson
06-02-2010, 04:13 PM
I had thought that I read somewhere that his power was rated as above average for a middle infielder, and I don't remember the exact number, but I want to say that it was rated at a 60/65 on the power scale.

Also, that there was a better chance than not that he would be able to stick at 2B. Above average glove, average arm.

I'll look and see if I can find it again, but maybe I'm thinking of someone else?

BA and Keith Law both don't think he can stay in the middle infield. And BA likes his bat while Law is just okay on it. I dunno, sounds like a non-ginger Matt Murton. I mean not bad, but I want no part of him at #16. I'd be happy to have him in the third, in the first there's juts way too much other talent on the board that I'd rather have. He's actually the only guy I've seen us linked to that I don't like. Except for that one snippet that mentioned Cabrera.

JuggernautJ
06-02-2010, 04:15 PM
Stetson Allie is very high on the cubs List and i think the cubs will take him if he is still there

Jilly Bohnson
06-02-2010, 04:17 PM
That's good news about Wilson. I would gladly take him.

Where did you read this about Whitson? I read a report published yesterday that said he was blowing it up at some FL prep showcase. He was sitting at 94, touching 96, with fantastic control. Struck out fellow prospect Yordy Cabrera, too. A.J. Cole is losing a ton of steam, though. He stunk it up at the showcase.

I actually read what you just referenced after I made that post. But here's what made me say what I said:


15. Karsten Whitson, rhp
Chipley (Fla.) HS
A Florida signee, Whitson played on the USA Baseball 18U club that won a gold medal at the Pan American Junior Championship in Venezuela and pitched at all the big showcase events, so national-level scouts have a history with him. They've seen one of the draft's best secondary pitches in a hard, sharp, 80-84 mph slider. The word most often associate with Whitson's slider is "legit." His fastball also earns praise as he can reach 95 mph regularly and pitches at 90-94 mph. Whitson was a fine prep basketball player who gave up a sport he loves for baseball, and his athleticism usually translates to the diamond in terms of control and the ability to repeat his delivery. However, Whitson had a difficult start in early May in front of a large crowd of scouts, crosscheckers and scouting directors. According to one scout, Whitson had thrown 130 pitches in his previous start and then had more than 10 days off, and his stock was falling as BA went to press. He's one of many Florida prep players whose final landing spot in the draft may depend on how they perform at the state all-star games in Sebring at the end of the month.

So maybe with that showcase he slides back into the top 10? Hopefully not though, he's the one guy I've seen us linked to that has me really excited. There are other guys I like, for instance I like O'Connor more the more I read about him, but Whitson's the one guy that'll have me go "Holy **** we got him!"

Marlin Bystro
06-02-2010, 04:47 PM
Sneaky guy to think about is Matt Szczur a two sport guy from Nova. He is climbing up the board. The dude donated bone marrow to save a young girl he had never met.

Being a football player he is obviously very ATHLETIC and will be gone a lot earlier than people think.

Jilly Bohnson
06-02-2010, 04:53 PM
Sneaky guy to think about is Matt Szczur a two sport guy from Nova. He is climbing up the board. The dude donated bone marrow to save a young girl he had never met.

Being a football player he is obviously very ATHLETIC and will be gone a lot earlier than people think.

I wouldnt' mind him in the 4th or 5th or something. He'd be a project but looks to have some legit upside.

cowboydoc45
06-02-2010, 04:53 PM
Sneaky guy to think about is Matt Szczur a two sport guy from Nova. He is climbing up the board. The dude donated bone marrow to save a young girl he had never met.

Being a football player he is obviously very ATHLETIC and will be gone a lot earlier than people think.

we went with a two sport year a couple of years ago... I think we all know how that turned out... He sounds like a class act, but that doesn't mean much on the field.

StrandedCub
06-02-2010, 04:57 PM
16. Chicago Cubs
Josh Sale, OF, Bishop Blanchet High (Ore.)
Muscular hitter who knows the strike zone. Could go even higher.

The rest of the first round is here... SI: Jon Heyman Mock (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/jon_heyman/06/02/mock.draft/index.html)

Marlin Bystro
06-02-2010, 05:01 PM
I wouldnt' mind him in the 4th or 5th or something. He'd be a project but looks to have some legit upside.

I don't think he's a huge project by any means. He was hitting .440ish in the Big East which isn't a bad league. I haven't seen him play though, but from what I'm hearing he will go higher than that.

This is a really weird draft. I'm thinking there could be multiple guys thought to be 3rd to 5th rounders going in the first to supplemental rounds and I don't think it will be because of signability.

Jilly Bohnson
06-02-2010, 05:06 PM
I don't think he's a huge project by any means. He was hitting .440ish in the Big East which isn't a bad league. I haven't seen him play though, but from what I'm hearing he will go higher than that.

This is a really weird draft. I'm thinking there could be multiple guys thought to be 3rd to 5th rounders going in the first to supplemental rounds and I don't think it will be because of signability.

I know nothing about him except what BA's writeup says, which is basically that he's an 80 runner, but he has a funky swing and has never focused solely on baseball. There's upside there for sure.

And yeah I agree with your point about a lot of guys going way earlier than thought. It really seems that after like the top 10-15 guys the opinions are pretty divergent.

Jilly Bohnson
06-02-2010, 05:22 PM
Austin Wilson, OF, Harvard-Westlake HS (Calif.)
Mult-italented player may wind up going to Stanford. Word is, he seeks $6 mil to sign, so that could be a hitch. Philly has been known to take athletes and Wilson fits.

Let's say that pushes him out of the first round. Would Rickets consider letting us take him? That'd be one hell of a way to show a commitment to building via the draft.

Mell413
06-02-2010, 05:43 PM
Let's say that pushes him out of the first round. Would Rickets consider letting us take him? That'd be one hell of a way to show a commitment to building via the draft.

I'm sure he would consider it. I'm sure someone would take him before our 2nd round pick. I think our 2nd pick isn't until 65. I noticed you mentioned you renewed your BA subscription. I was just curious what they are saying about Andy Wilkins from Arkansas.

Jilly Bohnson
06-02-2010, 05:55 PM
I'm sure he would consider it. I'm sure someone would take him before our 2nd round pick. I think our 2nd pick isn't until 65. I noticed you mentioned you renewed your BA subscription. I was just curious what they are saying about Andy Wilkins from Arkansas.

They don't have their reports for Arkansas yet and I didn't see him in the top 200. Remind me again in a day or two when they hopefully have their Arkansas report filed and I'll let you know.

Mell413
06-02-2010, 05:57 PM
They don't have their reports for Arkansas yet and I didn't see him in the top 200. Remind me again in a day or two when they hopefully have their Arkansas report filed and I'll let you know.

Yeah I noticed he wasn't in the top 200 rankings that came out recently. He was ranked 64th of the top 100 college players in BA Prospect Handbook. I'm curious as to why he slipped.

Tehjosha
06-02-2010, 06:00 PM
So maybe with that showcase he slides back into the top 10? Hopefully not though, he's the one guy I've seen us linked to that has me really excited. There are other guys I like, for instance I like O'Connor more the more I read about him, but Whitson's the one guy that'll have me go "Holy **** we got him!"

I would be absolutely ecstatic to get Whitson. Some mocks I have seen have him slipping all the way into the early to mid 20s.


Let's say that pushes him out of the first round. Would Rickets consider letting us take him? That'd be one hell of a way to show a commitment to building via the draft.

IF he drops that far, and that is a huge IF, I would think that we would have to take him, regardless of signability issues. I would go nuts if Whitson and Wilson were our top two picks.

cubsbullsbears2
06-02-2010, 09:06 PM
I would be absolutely ecstatic to get Whitson. Some mocks I have seen have him slipping all the way into the early to mid 20s.



IF he drops that far, and that is a huge IF, I would think that we would have to take him, regardless of signability issues. I would go nuts if Whitson and Wilson were our top two picks.

If we get whitson and wilson i will jizz a load. hell, even if we get one i will be ecstatic. also would love christian yelich in the second

Jilly Bohnson
06-03-2010, 01:53 PM
CHICAGO -- What does Tim Wilken have up his sleeve this year?

Wilken, the Cubs' scouting director, will lead the decision process for the team's picks in the First-Year Player Draft on Monday. The Cubs' front office and scouts gather in Mesa, Ariz., for the three-day Draft and Cubs player development director Oneri Fleita can't wait.

"[Wilken's] Drafts are always interesting, they're always a lot of fun and they're always balanced," Fleita said.

The Cubs have the 16th pick in the first round of Monday's Draft, and they won't make another selection until the second round (65th pick).


MLB.com will offer live coverage and analysis of the entire First-Year Player Draft from June 7-9 on MLB.com/Live. The first round and Compensation Round A will be broadcast live on MLB.com and MLB Network on Monday, June 7, beginning with the Draft preview show at 5 p.m. CT.

MLB.com Draft expert Jonathan Mayo will join Greg Amsinger, Harold Reynolds, John Hart, Peter Gammons and Baseball America executive editor Jim Callis on Monday's broadcast.

Coverage for rounds 2-50 will shift exclusively to MLB.com/Live. Rounds 2-30 will be streamed on Tuesday, beginning at 11 a.m., and rounds 31-50 will be streamed on Wednesday, starting at 11 a.m. Host Pete McCarthy will be joined by Mayo and former general manager Jim Duquette.

Here's a glance at what the Cubs have in store as the Draft approaches:

The rest is here:
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100602&content_id=10718630&vkey=news_chc&fext=.jsp&c_id=chc

Tehjosha
06-03-2010, 04:29 PM
Latest BA mock has us taking Wilson.


16. CUBS (Conor). Tough spot here. After considering Workman and Castellanos, I decided to go big and choose Austin Wilson. The Cubs have shown that they're not afraid to spend money in the draft, and it will take some money to lure Wilson away from Stanford. I'm guessing around $3 million. The Cubs already have seen Wilson hit a home run at Wrigley Field at last summer's Under Armour All-American Game, and I'm not as worried about his hitting as others may be. Wilson has five-tool potential.

faithfulfan
06-03-2010, 05:37 PM
Latest BA mock has us taking Wilson.

I like that very much.

StrandedCub
06-03-2010, 07:05 PM
I like that very much.

Ditto... I see very good things coming from Austin Wilson.

faithfulfan
06-03-2010, 07:42 PM
Ditto... I see very good things coming from Austin Wilson.

Yeah, he is my favorite prospect that would be available around our pick. There are a couple others I like better, but will definately be top 6 or 7 picks.

zzConflict
06-03-2010, 08:12 PM
Ditto... I see very good things coming from Austin Wilson.

He's an extremely risky guy though with a high chance of busting and a similarly high bonus demand (or presumed bonus demand). He also hasn't hit well this spring, certainly hasn't played up to his ability and has very weak pitch recognition.

I'd much rather just go over-slot on 5/6 players later on in the draft than going all out on Wilson.

StrandedCub
06-03-2010, 09:11 PM
He's an extremely risky guy though with a high chance of busting and a similarly high bonus demand (or presumed bonus demand). He also hasn't hit well this spring, certainly hasn't played up to his ability and has very weak pitch recognition.

I'd much rather just go over-slot on 5/6 players later on in the draft than going all out on Wilson.

Yeah I know, I've heard he is a high-risk high-reward guy but I'm ready for us to take a guy like that. I love the kids potential.

thornga2
06-04-2010, 09:38 AM
My dream first two rounds is

1. Karsten Whitson
2. Cam Bedrosian

semperfi
06-04-2010, 11:45 AM
My Dream first two rounds are guys that pan out.

cubsbullsbears2
06-04-2010, 12:06 PM
My dream first two rounds is

1. Karsten Whitson
2. Cam Bedrosian

no way in hell do we get bedrosian in the second but that would be incredible.

Kirel
06-04-2010, 12:17 PM
My dream first two rounds is

1. Karsten Whitson
2. Cam Bedrosian
Spending the teams first two picks on two high school pitchers is less dream scenario and more betting the house on double zero. Thats a very risky play and I would be unhappy with the team if they did so.

Jilly Bohnson
06-04-2010, 04:25 PM
Spending the teams first two picks on two high school pitchers is less dream scenario and more betting the house on double zero. Thats a very risky play and I would be unhappy with the team if they did so.

Those would almost without a doubt be the top two players on the board at each pick if that happened. I know you're a TINSTAAPP guy but can you really be unhappy with BPA?

Jilly Bohnson
06-04-2010, 04:38 PM
Keith Law's latest mock has us taking O'Connor again. I think we have to think at this point that that's who we'll take if he's still on the board. He does say something new and interesting though, that he's heard us in on Delino Deshields JR. I don't like Deshields almost purely due to his height, I can't think of many good players that are 5'8'' or shorter, but it sounds like he could be a legit five tool guy in spite of it.

Marlin Bystro
06-04-2010, 04:43 PM
I believe that the Cubs will either take O'Connor or Kvasnicka and have felt this way for a while.

Mell413
06-04-2010, 04:51 PM
Keith Law's latest mock has us taking O'Connor again. I think we have to think at this point that that's who we'll take if he's still on the board. He does say something new and interesting though, that he's heard us in on Delino Deshields JR. I don't like Deshields almost purely due to his height, I can't think of many good players that are 5'8'' or shorter, but it sounds like he could be a legit five tool guy in spite of it.

Since O'Conner is a catcher is it possible if Grandal's price tag is too much and he makes it to our pick that the Cubs take him? I guess I can accept the O'Conner pick even though I do prefer Brentz at that spot. I'm going to give Wilken the benefit of the doubt. I'd feel better about O'Conner if you said you would hate the pick.

Jilly Bohnson
06-04-2010, 05:28 PM
Since O'Conner is a catcher is it possible if Grandal's price tag is too much and he makes it to our pick that the Cubs take him? I guess I can accept the O'Conner pick even though I do prefer Brentz at that spot. I'm going to give Wilken the benefit of the doubt. I'd feel better about O'Conner if you said you would hate the pick.

Haha maybe he'll take O'Connor as a pitcher just to piss me off or something.

And I'd say Grandal isn't out of the question. Grandal if he were to make it to us would be a Wilken type pick I think, he probably just hasn't been linked to us because it's unlikely he makes it there. Although I don't think Brentz is a Wilken type at all.

Kirel
06-04-2010, 05:39 PM
Those would almost without a doubt be the top two players on the board at each pick if that happened. I know you're a TINSTAAPP guy but can you really be unhappy with BPA?
Maybe they would be, but my guess is that they would not. You have to go looking to get two HS arms to actually draft two high school arms in the first two rounds. There are bound to be unsignable first rounders that fall or other players of equal stature out there.

Kirel
06-04-2010, 05:44 PM
Need we revist the 2002 draft, for that matter?

7 pitchers taken in 4 rounds and the only meaningful return was Rich Hill.

Jilly Bohnson
06-04-2010, 05:53 PM
Maybe they would be, but my guess is that they would not. You have to go looking to get two HS arms to actually draft two high school arms in the first two rounds. There are bound to be unsignable first rounders that fall or other players of equal stature out there.

Maybe, but most likely not. Bedrosian's a late-first or sandwich guy. If we get him in the 2nd that's good value, and most likely as good or better than anything else on the board.


Need we revist the 2002 draft, for that matter?

7 pitchers taken in 4 rounds and the only meaningful return was Rich Hill.

And on the other side of the coin there's a decent chance the 2008 draft will produce a half dozen quality big league arms. 3 of those coming in the top 3 rounds.

This is kind of been bugging me. When we were talking about the Fangraphs organization ratings, one of the things you said is that this franchise will probably not win a world series without an ace to match up against the King Felix's and Justin Verlanders of the world. But now, you're a pretty staunch TINSTAAPP guy. How are we supposed to get that guy to anchor our rotation while not drafting pitching in the top three rounds?

Jilly Bohnson
06-04-2010, 07:04 PM
Baseball America's latest Mock:


16. CUBS. Two players repeatedly get mentioned with Chicago: O'Conner and Whitson. Wojciechowski and Wimmers are back-burner options.

PROJECTED PICK: JUSTIN O'CONNER.

I like

Kirel
06-04-2010, 11:17 PM
Maybe, but most likely not. Bedrosian's a late-first or sandwich guy. If we get him in the 2nd that's good value, and most likely as good or better than anything else on the board.



And on the other side of the coin there's a decent chance the 2008 draft will produce a half dozen quality big league arms. 3 of those coming in the top 3 rounds.

This is kind of been bugging me. When we were talking about the Fangraphs organization ratings, one of the things you said is that this franchise will probably not win a world series without an ace to match up against the King Felix's and Justin Verlanders of the world. But now, you're a pretty staunch TINSTAAPP guy. How are we supposed to get that guy to anchor our rotation while not drafting pitching in the top three rounds?
I don't mind taking *ONE* player like that, maybe, but a few things:

1. the guys who will probably be Justin Verlander aren't gonig to be there at 16. I don't see Whitson as a real ace. Maybe a one starter, maybe.
2. Expending all picks on these guys is about as risky as you can get
3. Even taking those guys still probably means you do not get a Verlander. Pitchers still fail at an alarming rate
4. Hernandez was a international NDFA. Thats a whole different and more attractive ballgame. You can sign as many international free agents as you can afford, you get exactly one first round pick most years.
5. The team probably isn't gonig to win very much without a few home grown position players either.

I'd much rather take an O'Conner in the first round and a Bedrosian and a draft reach in rounds 2 and 3 or take Whitson in the first and reach for a overslot 2nd round bat if one is available than spend the first two rounds on two very risky guys(Honestly, everything I read about Bedrosian unnerves me, my gut says he ends up a MR)

MLBfan24
06-05-2010, 12:01 AM
If we take O'Connor, is there any idea at which position we would be trying him out at: he plays short, and could play catcher with some pretty good power, but a 95 mph heater off the mound would be pretty hard to pass up

Kirel
06-05-2010, 12:03 AM
If we take O'Connor, is there any idea at which position we would be trying him out at: he plays short, and could play catcher with some pretty good power, but a 95 mph heater off the mound would be pretty hard to pass up
If the yare drafting him as a pitcher they almost definatly ****ed up. A better pitcher is going to be on hand. 95 MPH off the mound from a highschool kid isn't nearly that exciting in this draft. THere will probably be three or four guys there that can do it already I'd guess, one of Whitson and Covey is bound to be.

KNowing Wilken, though, if he's taken it'll be as a catcher.

MLBfan24
06-05-2010, 12:10 AM
All I ask for in this draft is either a high upside pitcher or outfielder; I think drafting a safe college arm who is going to be a back of the rotation type of guy is just a lousy unimaginative pick

Kirel
06-05-2010, 12:31 AM
All I ask for in this draft is either a high upside pitcher or outfielder; I think drafting a safe college arm who is going to be a back of the rotation type of guy is just a lousy unimaginative pick
While I agree, taking a risky high school arm isn't nessecerily a great idea either.

WHy an outfielder, might I ask? The OF is probably the position the cubs need the least. I don't see any reason to focus on it.

O'Connor is fine at 16 as a potential impact catcher, but I think his arm is closer to back of the first\supplemental pick range, if hte cubs take him as a pitcher they reached.

StrandedCub
06-05-2010, 01:01 AM
Hey Kirel, what is your opinion on Austin Wilson? I know he is a high-risk guy but would you be for taking him at our spot? Or do you just see too much risk and not enough upside in him?

ggross
06-05-2010, 01:01 AM
While I agree, taking a risky high school arm isn't nessecerily a great idea either.

WHy an outfielder, might I ask? The OF is probably the position the cubs need the least. I don't see any reason to focus on it.

O'Connor is fine at 16 as a potential impact catcher, but I think his arm is closer to back of the first\supplemental pick range, if hte cubs take him as a pitcher they reached.

You don't draft an outfielder because you have Soriano, Jackson, Colvin and who else - Guyer? Aducci? Morelli? How about because we spend about 10 to 18 million a year trying to sign one?

MLBfan24
06-05-2010, 01:07 AM
I guess I say outfielder because I just don't have that much faith in the outfield prospects we have now, and if we take a high risk, high reward outfielder in this draft, Soriano, Byrd, and Fukudome would be long gone by the time that player makes it to the Show

WavelandAve
06-05-2010, 01:08 AM
Not sure when hes projected to go, but what are the thoughts on Ryan Lamarre (Michigan). I work for their team so Im just curious what the outside consensus is.

Kirel
06-05-2010, 01:18 AM
You don't draft an outfielder because you have Soriano, Jackson, Colvin and who else - Guyer? Aducci? Morelli? How about because we spend about 10 to 18 million a year trying to sign one?
I don't have a specific problem with drafting an outfielder, I just don't see it as a specific need. Why focus on exclusively an outfielder? The team has Jackson, Burke, Colvin, Spencer, Ha, Adduci, Guyer, Vitters possibly ends up as a LF if he makes it, Blair Springfield is probably an outfielder long term. It's not the best collection of prospects, but it's not exactly empty either, most likely 4 or 5 of the Cubs top 20 and maybe as many as 6 of their top 30 prospects are outfielders.

I want a good hitter, but I'm pretty position agnostic right now. Be it O'Conner behind the plate or at short, Vitek at 2B, Wilson in the OF, I don't really care, but why *REQUIRE* it to be an outfielder? And deciding it has to be an outfielder because you don't like SOriano's contract is, honestly, about as stupid an argument as you can make. You know as well as I do that if you draft an OF or not, chances are good he ends up being nothing relevent.

Kirel
06-05-2010, 01:20 AM
I guess I say outfielder because I just don't have that much faith in the outfield prospects we have now, and if we take a high risk, high reward outfielder in this draft, Soriano, Byrd, and Fukudome would be long gone by the time that player makes it to the Show
I'd have a hard time saying I have faith in the systems other prospects over the otufield prospects(excluding a couple pitchers like Coleman and Jackson, both of which are pretty likely to end up doing something useful at some point). They are all roughly the same in terms of risk IMHO.

StrandedCub
06-05-2010, 01:25 AM
Somebody said something that if Grandal drops then we should take him or something. Apparently a lot of people are hearing that there is already a deal done with him and the Royals.


Rumor: #Royals, according to industry sources are believed to have a deal in place with Yasmani Grandal for 4th overall pick #MLBDraft

Frankie Piliere Twitter (http://twitter.com/FrankiePiliere/status/15454126481)

Kirel
06-05-2010, 01:28 AM
Hey Kirel, what is your opinion on Austin Wilson? I know he is a high-risk guy but would you be for taking him at our spot? Or do you just see too much risk and not enough upside in him?
Given that his upside is a average to plus defensive RF with 30-40 homer power and atleast an average hit tool from what I've read(atleast one source gave him an 80 future power potential, which is Fielder\Howard level), I doubt he'll ever hit .320, but you gotta think he's got a shot at being something like .290/.350/.550, so he's definatly got the upside.

It's a tough call, he's raw, possibly rawer than any draftee since Patterson? But I hear such good things about his work ethic and coachability I probably couldn't pass on him unless someone else ridiculously talented has fallen.

MLBfan24
06-05-2010, 01:48 AM
I guess when push comes to shove, I really just want this team to draft the best player available. There is no reason to draft for need, this team really just needs to stock the farm, with players that will help us in the future or will help us acquire some big talent alah LaPorta for Sabathia

StrandedCub
06-05-2010, 01:48 AM
Chat Question: Can you really see the cubs drafting a HS player in the first round this year even though that really has not been their MO since WIlken took over?

Frankie Piliere: It's an odd class, a lot of teams are going out of their usual comfort zone. No one seems to have a great feel for the Cubs in the industry right now though.

I have heard that a lot. A lot of things I have read have us as a question mark. Wilken likes athletes and usually just seems to go best overall player which IMO is undoubtedly the best way to go early in the draft.


iven that his upside is a average to plus defensive RF with 30-40 homer power and atleast an average hit tool from what I've read(atleast one source gave him an 80 future power potential, which is Fielder\Howard level), I doubt he'll ever hit .320, but you gotta think he's got a shot at being something like .290/.350/.550, so he's definatly got the upside.

It's a tough call, he's raw, possibly rawer than any draftee since Patterson? But I hear such good things about his work ethic and coachability I probably couldn't pass on him unless someone else ridiculously talented has fallen.

Thanks for the insight. Sounds sort of like a Mike Stanton type prospect with a little less patience. I've heard Blue Jays, Phillies, and Yankees for him a lot. Hopefully if the Blue Jays pass then we would snatch him up.

Mell413
06-05-2010, 01:57 AM
Somebody said something that if Grandal drops then we should take him or something. Apparently a lot of people are hearing that there is already a deal done with him and the Royals.



Frankie Piliere Twitter (http://twitter.com/FrankiePiliere/status/15454126481)

I did hear they were linked to him earlier. I heard he was looking for Posey type money so I thought there could be a possibility he could slip.

Cubfan532
06-05-2010, 02:00 AM
Kellen Sweeney, his older brother (ryan) starts for the oakland athletics. and is a great prospect.

StrandedCub
06-05-2010, 02:00 AM
For anybody that has yet to see it...

Whitson vs. Wilson @ Wrigley (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rkdtex_EkaM)

Ron!n
06-05-2010, 04:54 AM
For anybody that has yet to see it...

Whitson vs. Wilson @ Wrigley (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rkdtex_EkaM)
How old is he?

StrandedCub
06-05-2010, 09:44 AM
How old is he?

Wilson is 18 years old now... 17 at the time of that video.

He was born in 1992... How stupid is that? lol I'm getting old

CubbieSteve
06-05-2010, 10:32 AM
For anybody that has yet to see it...

Whitson vs. Wilson @ Wrigley (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rkdtex_EkaM)

Wow. He looks good. Just imagine when he puts on muscle.

And to imagine, he's 2 years younger than me. WTF

chicagofan71
06-05-2010, 10:47 AM
I don't have a specific problem with drafting an outfielder, I just don't see it as a specific need. Why focus on exclusively an outfielder? The team has Jackson, Burke, Colvin, Spencer, Ha, Adduci, Guyer, Vitters possibly ends up as a LF if he makes it, Blair Springfield is probably an outfielder long term. It's not the best collection of prospects, but it's not exactly empty either, most likely 4 or 5 of the Cubs top 20 and maybe as many as 6 of their top 30 prospects are outfielders.

I want a good hitter, but I'm pretty position agnostic right now. Be it O'Conner behind the plate or at short, Vitek at 2B, Wilson in the OF, I don't really care, but why *REQUIRE* it to be an outfielder? And deciding it has to be an outfielder because you don't like SOriano's contract is, honestly, about as stupid an argument as you can make. You know as well as I do that if you draft an OF or not, chances are good he ends up being nothing relevent.

Completely agree. O'Conner, wilson, or Vitek and I'd be happy. Vitek is a true hitter, I just hope we'd be able to keep him at 2B. But I had a little change of heart, I'm really not liking the thought of taking Harvey or Wojicehewski

Yagyu+
06-05-2010, 01:57 PM
Anyone mention Ohio State right-hander Alex Wimmers? Caught this write-up in which Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has the Cubs taking Wimmers in his most recent mock draft:


There are few, if any, pitchers that are more polished than Wimmers. A solid athlete standing in at 6-2, 195 lbs, he has the best 3-pitch mix of any pitcher in this draft.

Wimmer's fastball sits in the low-90ís with good movement and he does a decent job locating it. Wimmers best pitch is easily his changeup, the best in this yearís class. It grades out as a 70 on the 20-80 scout scale. On top of his excellent change, Wimmers has a curve ball that rates as at least average, if not a little better. It is close to an 11-5 break and he throws it in the mid-70ís. More importantly, Wimmers does a great job throwing his curve for strikes. This gives him three legitimate weapons on the mound.

...Wimmers will not be an ace, but more likely a middle-rotation workhorse. It is possible they see more upside in Wimmers than others. At the end of the day, I would be surprised if the Cubs selected Wimmers, but he would be a great pick.

Cub_StuckinSTL
06-05-2010, 02:55 PM
For anybody that has yet to see it...

Whitson vs. Wilson @ Wrigley (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rkdtex_EkaM)

Wow with the wood bat

StrandedCub
06-05-2010, 02:57 PM
Anyone mention Ohio State right-hander Alex Wimmers? Caught this write-up in which Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has the Cubs taking Wimmers in his most recent mock draft:

See that is the type of guy that we have a million of. Those middle rotation starters. It may just be me but if we go pitcher, then I would rather take a guy that has the potential to be an ace, even if there is a chance that he flames out.

I wouldn't hate Wimmers, but I'd rather take a little more of a risk.

StrandedCub
06-05-2010, 03:01 PM
Wow. He looks good. Just imagine when he puts on muscle.

And to imagine, he's 2 years younger than me. WTF

Yeah, same here. It is weird when you start passing these guys up in age. 1992... It is just odd to hear that.

Ron!n
06-05-2010, 03:08 PM
Wilson is 18 years old now... 17 at the time of that video.

He was born in 1992... How stupid is that? lol I'm getting old
Only a year younger than me :D

The fact that hes that young makes me want to take a chance on him. I mean even if hes so undeveloped, he could spend 5 years in the minors and still be very young when he reaches the bigs.

Jilly Bohnson
06-05-2010, 03:14 PM
I don't mind taking *ONE* player like that, maybe, but a few things:

1. the guys who will probably be Justin Verlander aren't gonig to be there at 16. I don't see Whitson as a real ace. Maybe a one starter, maybe.
2. Expending all picks on these guys is about as risky as you can get
3. Even taking those guys still probably means you do not get a Verlander. Pitchers still fail at an alarming rate
4. Hernandez was a international NDFA. Thats a whole different and more attractive ballgame. You can sign as many international free agents as you can afford, you get exactly one first round pick most years.
5. The team probably isn't gonig to win very much without a few home grown position players either.

I'd much rather take an O'Conner in the first round and a Bedrosian and a draft reach in rounds 2 and 3 or take Whitson in the first and reach for a overslot 2nd round bat if one is available than spend the first two rounds on two very risky guys(Honestly, everything I read about Bedrosian unnerves me, my gut says he ends up a MR)

I dunno, I just think you're worrying way too much about taking two high school pitchers. Sure they're more risky than others, but outside of the top 5 or so picks you're not going to get anyone who's both safe and offers any sort of legitimate upside. Yeah high school arms are the riskiest, but they're also your best chance for front of the rotation pitching talent. I'd take a Cole or a Whitson or another high upside high school arm over a safe but mediocre player like Vitek 100 times out of 100.


Given that his upside is a average to plus defensive RF with 30-40 homer power and atleast an average hit tool from what I've read(atleast one source gave him an 80 future power potential, which is Fielder\Howard level), I doubt he'll ever hit .320, but you gotta think he's got a shot at being something like .290/.350/.550, so he's definatly got the upside.

It's a tough call, he's raw, possibly rawer than any draftee since Patterson? But I hear such good things about his work ethic and coachability I probably couldn't pass on him unless someone else ridiculously talented has fallen.

I really like him. He's raw, but I feel like with his background and smarts he has a better chance of addressing his problems than most guys that have those same problems.

Jilly Bohnson
06-05-2010, 04:14 PM
Not sure when hes projected to go, but what are the thoughts on Ryan Lamarre (Michigan). I work for their team so Im just curious what the outside consensus is.

BA really likes him. They have him as the 32nd best guy in the draft. A good all around player who profiles as a centerfielder.

Jilly Bohnson
06-05-2010, 04:41 PM
http://www.thecubreporter.com/2010/06/04/more-one-high-point-cubs-today


Cubs Player Personnel Director Oneri Fleita, Minor League Hitting Coordinator Dave Keller, and about a dozen Cub scouts were at Fitch Park today (and have been there for most of the week), working out high school and college players in preparation for next week’s Rule 4 Draft (AKA “First-Year Player Draft”). One of the players who was at Fitch Park showing his wares was invited to play in today’s game

High Point U. OF Nate Roberts hit lead-off and played CF for six innings, slashing an RBI single to left to put the Cubs on the board in the 3rd, then stealing two bases, before making a two-out over-the-shoulder running catch in deep right-center with his back to the infield to save a run in the 5th.

After graduating from Richmond Burton HS, the Spring Grove, IL native spent his freshman year at Northwestern University, before transferring to Parkland JC. He was selected by the Tampa Rays Rays in last June’s draft but did not sign, instead opting to transfer to High Point University in High Point, NC, where he was named 2010 Big South Conference Player of the Year after hitting 416/573/746 with 19 HR and 69 RBI and 36 SB (3 CS) in just 59 games. With all that on his resume, Baseball America ranked Roberts as just the 28th best draft prospect in the State of North Carolina.

He could be a later round pick. BA doesn't have much on him, just says he had a big year but doesn't have a "standout tool."

Ron!n
06-05-2010, 05:45 PM
http://www.thecubreporter.com/2010/06/04/more-one-high-point-cubs-today



He could be a later round pick. BA doesn't have much on him, just says he had a big year but doesn't have a "standout tool."
Who is he? :confused:

toovey107
06-05-2010, 05:51 PM
Who is he? :confused:
Was wondering the same thing ? lol

Jilly Bohnson
06-05-2010, 05:56 PM
Copy/Paste fail on my part. Although I did provide a link so it's not like it should have been THAT confusing.

toovey107
06-05-2010, 05:59 PM
Copy/Paste fail on my part. Although I did provide a link so it's not like it should have been THAT confusing.
Come on JB , you know some of us are too lazy for all that "clicking link" nonsense.

Cub_StuckinSTL
06-05-2010, 06:07 PM
Copy/Paste fail on my part. Although I did provide a link so it's not like it should have been THAT confusing.

you're really slipping...if I wanted to click links I'd go find it for myself....but why do that when we have you?

Kirel
06-05-2010, 06:47 PM
I dunno, I just think you're worrying way too much about taking two high school pitchers. Sure they're more risky than others, but outside of the top 5 or so picks you're not going to get anyone who's both safe and offers any sort of legitimate upside. Yeah high school arms are the riskiest, but they're also your best chance for front of the rotation pitching talent. I'd take a Cole or a Whitson or another high upside high school arm over a safe but mediocre player like Vitek 100 times out of 100.



I really like him. He's raw, but I feel like with his background and smarts he has a better chance of addressing his problems than most guys that have those same problems.
You see, I think part of our problem is our difference of opinion on Vitek and Whitson.

I like Vitek a good bit. I wouldn't call him mediocre. He might be a tweener, I'll grant you, but I like the package enough to think he'll handle 3B or LF fine even if he isn't putting up 25+ homers a season. And if he can handle 2B or CF, then you've potentially got a quite good player.

Whitson certainly has a lot of upside, but he's far, far more likely to end up a middle reliever or never making the majors than anything. I don't dislike him exactly, but I'm not in love with him by any means.

Jilly Bohnson
06-05-2010, 07:14 PM
You see, I think part of our problem is our difference of opinion on Vitek and Whitson.

I like Vitek a good bit. I wouldn't call him mediocre. He might be a tweener, I'll grant you, but I like the package enough to think he'll handle 3B or LF fine even if he isn't putting up 25+ homers a season. And if he can handle 2B or CF, then you've potentially got a quite good player.

Whitson certainly has a lot of upside, but he's far, far more likely to end up a middle reliever or never making the majors than anything. I don't dislike him exactly, but I'm not in love with him by any means.

If you could promise me Vitek could have average or better power AND stay on the positive end of the defensive spectrum then that'd be great. But right now it sounds like that's an either or proposition, and he's just not a guy I think is worth a pick at 16. I mean he's a nice prospect, he could potentially be a .300/.350/.450 centerfielder, but with that low of a ceiling and the fact that he's not a particularly safe bet to reach it, I think he's a second or sandwich round type talent that's been pushed up the draft boards because of the lack of viable college hitters in this draft.

Kirel
06-05-2010, 07:19 PM
If you could promise me Vitek could have average or better power AND stay on the positive end of the defensive spectrum then that'd be great. But right now it sounds like that's an either or proposition, and he's just not a guy I think is worth a pick at 16. I mean he's a nice prospect, he could potentially be a .300/.350/.450 centerfielder, but with that low of a ceiling and the fact that he's not a particularly safe bet to reach it, I think he's a second or sandwich round type talent that's been pushed up the draft boards because of the lack of viable college hitters in this draft.
That could be true, but honestly Whitson's not exactly likely to exceed major league middle relief. In a draft with deeper college talent I'm not sure he goes middle of the first round either.

It's not the strongest class out there. There are only about 5 or 6 guys I like a whole lot, and other than Wilson I doubt any make it out of the top 10.

I think most other years we'd have a better consensus by now. I'm just not as impressed by these guys as I have been by others in the past. Other than Wimmers, who simply has such a low cieling, I'm not seeing that much difference in the lot.

Jilly Bohnson
06-05-2010, 07:29 PM
That could be true, but honestly Whitson's not exactly likely to exceed major league middle relief. In a draft with deeper college talent I'm not sure he goes middle of the first round either.

It's not the strongest class out there. There are only about 5 or 6 guys I like a whole lot, and other than Wilson I doubt any make it out of the top 10.

Yeah but with a Whitson or Cole or others of that ilk there's at least some very legitimate upside. Whitson for example, already has two plus pitches and good(by amateur standards obviously) command with a good deal of projection left.

I think if you're going to resign yourself to a position player at 16, barring something unexpected like Sale or Cox reaching us, I think O'Connor or Wilson are the best bets.