PDA

View Full Version : Questioning the Lineup Decisions



Chicago657
05-01-2010, 03:00 PM
I just can't wrap my mind around this concept. I don't understand. Is Lou really that dumb? Can a manager of a major league baseball team really be that incompetent? As most of you know, Geovany Soto is having a great season at the plate. He is currently at a .340/.500/.528/1.028. He accomplished that line by becoming much more selective at the plate. He simply stopped swinging at pitches out of the zone and doesn't even swing as often at pitches in the zone. He is waiting for a pitch to hit or drawing a walk. Soto has already drawn 17 walks.

That .340 average will regress and in turn, so will the OBP, but Soto still has .160 points of separation in his AVG and OBP, which means he will be maintaining a high OBP when his stats regress. His high BABIP isn't completely fluky when you see his ridiculous 31% LD ratio.

I just can't see why a player hitting so damn well is being wasted in the 8th spot. He is getting second fewest plate appearances while everyone in front of him in the order is hitting worse than he is. I'm glad he is drawing all of these walks right in front of the pitcher so we can sac bunt every game :rolleyes:.

Taking our lineup today and plugging it into this lineup analysis (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py) with the current players numbers, we get 5.470 runs per game. If you simply switch Soto and Theriot at the 8 and 1 spots (which doesn't even make our lineup optimal), we score 5.7 runs per game, or 40 more runs per year, about 4 more wins. This is just a rough estimate with the current numbers that our players have put up this year. If I got to make a lineup right now, it would look something like:

Soto
Fukudome
Lee
Ramirez
Byrd
Soriano
Theriot
Fontenot

Oh wait, can Soto not lead off because he is fat? **** that. I put Theriot in front of Fontenot because he has both a better OBP and SLG than Fontenot, otherwise I like Theriot in the 8 (or even 9th) spot. Lee and Ramirez will hit. Soto, Fukudome, Byrd and Soriano are all having great seasons at the plate, better than I expected. Theriot is hitting well. We're getting great production from the 2B platoon. The fact of the matter is, this team will score more runs than they have showed. We shouldn't be hampering them with ******** lineups. At the very least, make me happy and have Fukudome lead off.

You can easily just say "It's Lou, what do you expect?" Well, I expect ****y lineups, I'm just frustrated that I have to continue to settle for such incompetence all season long.

BTW, why do I still see people wanting to get rid of Fukudome? Sure he is getting payed a lot, but he is an awesome hitter and save quite a few runs in the field. I don't understand. I've seen too much "dump Fukudome" trade talk.

LeoGetz
05-01-2010, 03:13 PM
It is Lougic at its best.

zambo4president
05-01-2010, 03:35 PM
Lou should really start pullin names out of a hat if he's gonna be this stupid.

zambo4president
05-01-2010, 03:42 PM
Id try this lineup vs Lefties

Fukudome
Lee
Soto
Ramirez
Soriano
Byrd
Theriot
Baker

And this against righties

Colvin
Fukudome
Lee
Soto
Ramirez
Fontenot
Theriot
Soriano

hoggin88
05-01-2010, 03:43 PM
Id try this lineup vs Lefties

Fukudome
Lee
Soto
Ramirez
Soriano
Byrd
Theriot
Baker

And this against righties

Colvin
Fukudome
Lee
Soto
Ramirez
Fontenot
Theriot
Soriano

Umm, sarcasm?

zambo4president
05-01-2010, 03:48 PM
Umm, sarcasm?

Completely

hoggin88
05-01-2010, 03:49 PM
Completely

Yeah I just noticed the post above that one. My bad, I killed the mood. :cry:

jiggin
05-01-2010, 04:56 PM
seems to be working...if it ain't broken why fix it?

isn't that part of the game?

1908_Cubs
05-01-2010, 05:12 PM
seems to be working...if it ain't broken why fix it?

isn't that part of the game?

Yes, that 12-13 record seems to support your conclusion.

Also - sure it's "working". But wouldn't it be a good idea for it to, you know, work better? What a novel concept.

Milnertime
05-01-2010, 05:22 PM
Yes, that 12-13 record seems to support your conclusion.

Also - sure it's "working". But wouldn't it be a good idea for it to, you know, work better? What a novel concept.
The Cubs have actually performed better offensively than the Cardinals have thus far.

And their FIP isn't that far off the Cardinals' so far either. The Cards are first, the Cubs are third, but the Cubs xFIP is better.

WOwolfOL
05-01-2010, 05:32 PM
I'd like to see Lee and Aram hit 6 and 8, respectively, until they show some consistency. I was glad Lou separated them today.

man man
05-01-2010, 05:48 PM
I agree that Soto should probably get moved up in the order if he continues (or stays anywhere near) his current production...but leadoff? middle order somewhere works for me.

jiggin
05-01-2010, 06:19 PM
Yes, that 12-13 record seems to support your conclusion.

Also - sure it's "working". But wouldn't it be a good idea for it to, you know, work better? What a novel concept.

half of that record is prior to the changes in the lineup being made...

...don't you all remember *****ing about it when it happened?

now the team seems to be scoring runs and the adjustments seem to be working for the team AS A WHOLE at the plate...and people ***** about it and question it.

baseball is as much about adjustments and reactions as it is a preset game plan and lineup. If the team is struggling and you change things up and they stop struggling (even briefly) you stick with that change until that hot hand is played out.

As for me, I don't give a **** who is hitting where as long as the team as a whole is creating the offense that we expect. Right now, that is happening so I hope to God that the management wouldn't be stupid enough to change a thing until the well runs dry again. (minus the changes due to lefty/right pitching and giving players days off as scheduled.)

BcEuAbRsS
05-01-2010, 06:22 PM
Will you guys calm down and relax... last year ppl were saying the same thing b4 the season started... he should bat no higher then 5th... 8th is kinda low right now cause I like riding the idea of riding the hot hand...

But we gotta let Lee and Rammy break outta the slumps they are in... they are vets and will figure it ot... right now the lineup is putting up some decent numbers without them producing...

BcEuAbRsS
05-01-2010, 06:25 PM
As I said last year in spring training... I think Soto should be a catcher first and a hitter second...

jiggin
05-01-2010, 06:29 PM
Yes, that 12-13 record seems to support your conclusion.

Also - sure it's "working". But wouldn't it be a good idea for it to, you know, work better? What a novel concept.

also wanted to point out that you can tinker too much with somethings. The cubs are just now starting to hit the ball like we all expected, why **** it up with more tinkering....makes no sense when the end conclusion that we all want, more offense and more wins, is happening with this lineup.

Wait until this lineup starts to struggle (which knowing these cubs players it will) and then start to tinker amd make more adjustments.

WrigleyWonder
05-01-2010, 06:39 PM
Id try this lineup vs Lefties

Fukudome
Lee
Soto
Ramirez
Soriano
Byrd
Theriot
Baker

And this against righties

Colvin
Fukudome
Lee
Soto
Ramirez
Fontenot
Theriot
Soriano

Ew.

BcEuAbRsS
05-01-2010, 06:52 PM
Ew.

Ew? you dont wanna sit Bryd against RH pitching? I know I do! :rolleyes:

Doogolas
05-01-2010, 07:01 PM
Soto should be hitting 4th and Ramirez should be hitting 7th until Ramirez remembers he's good at baseball.

semperfi
05-01-2010, 07:09 PM
Still take Ramirez over Soto. Soto is going to slow down sometime and Ramirez vice versa.

Doogolas
05-01-2010, 07:10 PM
Still take Ramirez over Soto. Soto is going to slow down sometime and Ramirez vice versa.

Doesn't matter. For the time being Soto should be hitting hire and Rammy lower. Besides, chances are Soto is, for this year at the least, going to be as good a hitter as Ramirez. And likely worth more because he's a catcher.

semperfi
05-01-2010, 07:19 PM
Doesn't matter. For the time being Soto should be hitting hire and Rammy lower. Besides, chances are Soto is, for this year at the least, going to be as good a hitter as Ramirez. And likely worth more because he's a catcher.

Soto has one great month of baseball and everyone wants to call him the best on our team. Soto is doing just fine down in the 8 hole. And whether he's "worth" more because he's a catcher is not a valid point on where he bats in the lineup.

Doogolas
05-01-2010, 07:28 PM
Soto has one great month of baseball and everyone wants to call him the best on our team. Soto is doing just fine down in the 8 hole. And whether he's "worth" more because he's a catcher is not a valid point on where he bats in the lineup.

Right now he IS the best on the team. He's hitting Liners at a rate of 31%. And he's taking a LOT of pitches. Right now Soto is a better hitter than Ramirez, period. And based on 08 and his start to this year he's probably on Ramirez's level as a hitter because his eye is that good.

DamnGoat
05-01-2010, 07:31 PM
I'd probably bump Ramirez down to 6th or 7th. Leave Lee where he's at since he's been a little better the last few games and even when he's not hitting he'll at least attempt to take a BB instead of swinging wildly like ARam.

Fukudome
Soto
Lee
Soriano
Byrd
Ramirez
Fontenot
Theriot

That's what I'd prefer, but I doubt we ever see anything quite like that with our current manager.

semperfi
05-01-2010, 09:34 PM
Right now he IS the best on the team. He's hitting Liners at a rate of 31%. And he's taking a LOT of pitches. Right now Soto is a better hitter than Ramirez, period. And based on 08 and his start to this year he's probably on Ramirez's level as a hitter because his eye is that good.

Obviously he's out performing Ramirez right now. And if you want to just not look at last year's stats, one could form that argument that he's on Ramirez's level. But I don't believe he'd be walking as much batting in the 4 hole getting better protection. And once he starts seeing more pitches in the strike zone, he's going to be getting more aggressive. Taking far less walks and his BABIP will drop because he won't be accustom to sitting on the "FAT" pitch anymore. Which in-turn lowers his productivity levels.

Doogolas
05-01-2010, 09:37 PM
Obviously he's out performing Ramirez right now. And if you want to just not look at last year's stats, one could form that argument that he's on Ramirez's level. But I don't believe he'd be walking as much batting in the 4 hole getting better protection. And once he starts seeing more pitches in the strike zone, he's going to be getting more aggressive. Taking far less walks and his BABIP will drop because he won't be accustom to sitting on the "FAT" pitch anymore. Which in-turn lowers his productivity levels.

I'll talk last year's stats with you, Soto was horribly unlucky. That's why I was saying all offseason he'd be really ****ing good. Hell, I even believed he'd be better than 08 due to his much improved eye last year.

When he's swung, he's hit the ball hard. Very hard. His LD% is over 30. And that's because he looks for a pitch and waits for it. He doesn't change his approach regardless of the count. Which will get him looking from time to time, but also is why he has 4 walks in 14PAs when the count starts 0-2. Soto has looked and been fantastic this year. No he won't OPS 1.000 all year, or I'd be shocked if he did rather, but he will probably OBP over .400 and will probably SLG around .500 or so. And right now he's playing and LOOKING better than Rammy at the plate. When Rammy starts to turn it around, yeah, move him back up. But until he does, play the ****ing hot hand. Sometimes you have to take it a day at a time.

jiggin
05-01-2010, 11:03 PM
exactly, which is why with the offense scoring the last couple of games I wouldn't change a fricking thing.

good day...I SAID GOOD DAY!

semperfi
05-01-2010, 11:06 PM
I'll talk last year's stats with you, Soto was horribly unlucky. That's why I was saying all offseason he'd be really ****ing good. Hell, I even believed he'd be better than 08 due to his much improved eye last year.

When he's swung, he's hit the ball hard. Very hard. His LD% is over 30. And that's because he looks for a pitch and waits for it. He doesn't change his approach regardless of the count. Which will get him looking from time to time, but also is why he has 4 walks in 14PAs when the count starts 0-2. Soto has looked and been fantastic this year. No he won't OPS 1.000 all year, or I'd be shocked if he did rather, but he will probably OBP over .400 and will probably SLG around .500 or so. And right now he's playing and LOOKING better than Rammy at the plate. When Rammy starts to turn it around, yeah, move him back up. But until he does, play the ****ing hot hand. Sometimes you have to take it a day at a time.


Anyways, this move is ****ing ********. It's too early to do this ****. Especially when he just had his best start of the year. If Zambrano goes 2IP every single time out. Fine. This is probably not that bad. But as a 1IP guy it would be stupid as hell.

Lou played the hot hand here and you blasted him for it. Hypocrite? I think so. I think you just like to *****. Cause you are always doing it. Winning is never enough for you.

jiggin
05-01-2010, 11:07 PM
Lou played the hot hand here and you blasted him for it. Hypocrite? I think so. I think you just like to *****. Cause you are always doing it. Winning is never enough for you.

exactly


sorry, people on here love to ride the coat tales of other posters...I just wanted to jump in on the fun. :)

Doogolas
05-02-2010, 12:31 AM
Lou played the hot hand here and you blasted him for it. Hypocrite? I think so. I think you just like to *****. Cause you are always doing it. Winning is never enough for you.

That was because I thought it was permanent. I'm actually behind it. You can ask Strife, I've told him on AIM a few times that so long as it's not permanent I'm cool with it. I'm totally good with riding out Silva and Gorzo while they're on hot streaks, but the second somebody has back to back bad starts Z should be back in. And at all times we should be looking for some MR help.

I don't just like to *****. You just don't know the context behind things. But well done on finding a completely unrelated and completely different quote. :clap:

One more thing, Zambrano is WAY better than Silva or Gorzy, period, they're not even close in terms of pitching ability. Soto and Ramirez, while Ramirez is better, Soto isn't worse by much.

Ah, something else I'd like to add, there is a BIG difference between playing the hot hand in a lineup until another guy starts hitting again and taking a guy out of the rotation in favor of someone else. Because it's an actual transition back and forth there. With guys in the lineup, Rammy hitting lower and Soto higher would not take Rammy out of the lineup. I'm not pulling any irrational ******** and saying, "Put the theoretical young guy in over Rammy!" Just cause the young guy is starting hot and Rammy is cold. I'm saying, "Put the really ****ing hot, also very good hitter higher in the order and drop Rammy until he starts performing like the very good hitter he is." That alone makes them completely incomparable.

Last thing I'm gonna add to this post. I don't like to *****. And I'm not a hypocrite. As I clearly showed you that second part, I will explain the first. My favorite thing to do is talk about how awesome players are doing. Like Soto and Soriano for example, Marmol, Colvin being an AWESOME surprise. Fukudome being orgasmic. These are my FAVORITE things to discuss. But people on here choose to think other things are ********. I would much rather celebrate how great some people are doing than have to ***** about others. But there really aren't any threads talking about that now are there? I mean that Soto one went nowhere. Nobody talks about good things. They just *****, so I'm just kinda stuck with it.

jiggin
05-02-2010, 01:19 AM
can't beat em' so join em' huh?

don't let anyone tell you that you aren't a follower.


FOLLOW THOSE SHEEP!

Doogolas
05-02-2010, 01:24 AM
can't beat em' so join em' huh?

don't let anyone tell you that you aren't a follower.


FOLLOW THOSE SHEEP!

Not at all. Have to stay on topic. Kind of the rules. And I don't like to make threads. I rarely ever do it. I'm more of a commenter than a creator. It's like how I watch TV shows but would never want to make one. But way to post something that's in literally NO way relevant to the actual discussion. You deserve applause. :clap:

Milnertime
05-02-2010, 04:25 AM
Lou played the hot hand here and you blasted him for it. Hypocrite? I think so. I think you just like to *****. Cause you are always doing it. Winning is never enough for you.
Gotta go with Doogolas on this one.

Moving a hitter a few spots in the lineup is way different than moving a guy from the starting rotation to the bullpen.

Tufnel_11
05-02-2010, 08:53 AM
I agree that Soto should probably get moved up in the order if he continues (or stays anywhere near) his current production...but leadoff? middle order somewhere works for me.

Those were my exact thoughts when I first read the idea.

4cubs
05-02-2010, 11:58 AM
Why are the Cubs putting their worst hitter in the 4 or 5 spot (or in the lineup at all)?

I am sure this is an unpopular statement with loyal Cubs fans. After all Aramis has been the team's most consistent and best hitter traditionally.

However, if it is tradition that is of the upmost importance, why aren't we playing Ernie Banks?

Lou professes about putting the hot hitters in the lineup. Certainly someone must be hotter than Aramis?

Letting a veteran proven hitter work his way out of a slump is one thing, but the Cubs are in May with a sub-500 record, 3rd in the division and already 4.5 games behind the Cards.

I expect Aramis to turn this around any day now. However, I've been thinking that for over a month.

Can the Cubs afford to wait much longer?

semperfi
05-02-2010, 12:00 PM
One thread wasn't enough for you?

BcEuAbRsS
05-02-2010, 12:03 PM
Well... now that u mention it... just bench Rammy until he breaks outta his slump...

great theory!

CUBDOM4life
05-02-2010, 12:07 PM
We have a fat, old, senile alcoholic manager who is trying interesting an interesting approach.

Milnertime
05-02-2010, 12:31 PM
STUPID.


Why aren't we playing Ernie Banks? Really?

If you really need an answer, it's because he's a billion ****ing years old and can't play baseball anymore. What a stupid ****ing thread.

Shut up, 4cubs.

sulster
05-02-2010, 12:41 PM
lol...you've been thinking it about for over a month. So you knew before the season started he would be in a slump....Well Hello there Mrs. Cleo

ReJo
05-02-2010, 01:10 PM
I love the 1 month into the season overreaction threads. Soto should be MVP and Aramis and Lee should be released.
Aramis will be fine. Leave him where he is in the lineup.

4cubs
05-02-2010, 01:15 PM
lol...you've been thinking it about for over a month. So you knew before the season started he would be in a slump....Well Hello there Mrs. CleoHis spring training was more of the same. I was hoping once the season started it would turn around.

ty_smitty21
05-02-2010, 01:15 PM
I have a bigger issue with Lou putting Tracy in the 4 or 5 hole when he starts. Tracy is 3-15 for the season.. he's washed up. When he gets a start, hit him 8th. Ramirez will break out of his slump, and he's still the guy we need in the middle of the lineup. I don't see him being moved in the order.

I would, however, like to see Soto moving up.

4cubs
05-02-2010, 01:19 PM
STUPID.


Why aren't we playing Ernie Banks? Really?

If you really need an answer, it's because he's a billion ****ing years old and can't play baseball anymore. What a stupid ****ing thread.

Shut up, 4cubs.
Read much???

I said if we wanted to play players based on tradition only (and ignore how effective they would currently be) we should play Ernie Banks.

The point is, EARN playing time; don't receive it because of what they USED TO do.

Str1fe5
05-02-2010, 01:34 PM
The only reason to care about the past at all is how it correlates with future performance. If you think that 40 PA in ST and 25 games in April are a much better indicator of future performance than an entire career or the previous 3-4 seasons, then you are simply wrong. If you think this is just a slump that Ramirez is in that he will break out of, then benching him is the worst thing you can do. If you think he is washed up, you are a moron.

4cubs
05-02-2010, 01:55 PM
The only reason to care about the past at all is how it correlates with future performance. If you think that 40 PA in ST and 25 games in April are a much better indicator of future performance than an entire career or the previous 3-4 seasons, then you are simply wrong. If you think this is just a slump that Ramirez is in that he will break out of, then benching him is the worst thing you can do. If you think he is washed up, you are a moron.The only thing you didn't weigh in on was moving him in the batting order (thread title). How about now rationalizing why that would be a bad idea?

Milnertime
05-02-2010, 04:19 PM
Read much???

I said if we wanted to play players based on tradition only (and ignore how effective they would currently be) we should play Ernie Banks.

The point is, EARN playing time; don't receive it because of what they USED TO do.
Contribute meaningful posts much?

What you said was that if tradition was all that mattered, we should get Ernie Banks to play. That's either a poor attempt at humor, or it's a poor attempt at logic. Either way, it's very stupid and reflects the quality of posts I think many of us have come to expect from you.

Then you ask Strife to rationalize why moving Ramirez down in the order is a bad idea, as if he has ever even said that. Nobody with a brain would disagree that moving him down until he figures it out is a good idea, and nobody in this thread has said anything that would go against that logic.

This thread is full of your straw men. Maybe you should learn to "read much" and stop arguing with yourself.

semperfi
05-02-2010, 04:31 PM
Gotta go with Doogolas on this one.

Moving a hitter a few spots in the lineup is way different than moving a guy from the starting rotation to the bullpen.

Its really not that different. Just look at how Soriano took it.

Doogolas
05-02-2010, 04:53 PM
Its really not that different. Just look at how Soriano took it.

Um... what? Soriano was hurt last year. Does that somehow not register for you?

Doogolas
05-02-2010, 04:56 PM
Contribute meaningful posts much?

What you said was that if tradition was all that mattered, we should get Ernie Banks to play. That's either a poor attempt at humor, or it's a poor attempt at logic. Either way, it's very stupid and reflects the quality of posts I think many of us have come to expect from you.

Then you ask Strife to rationalize why moving Ramirez down in the order is a bad idea, as if he has ever even said that. Nobody with a brain would disagree that moving him down until he figures it out is a good idea, and nobody in this thread has said anything that would go against that logic.

This thread is full of your straw men. Maybe you should learn to "read much" and stop arguing with yourself.

I'm just going to say that you shouldn't speak for Strife. He does in fact think moving Ramirez down is a bad idea.

semperfi
05-02-2010, 05:10 PM
Um... what? Soriano was hurt last year. Does that somehow not register for you?

He still didn't want to be moved down. Whether he was hurt or not, he was still playing. Maybe Ramirez is still hurt? He was hurt in spring training, who's to say he's still not hurt.

Str1fe5
05-02-2010, 05:12 PM
The only thing you didn't weigh in on was moving him in the batting order (thread title). How about now rationalizing why that would be a bad idea?


Contribute meaningful posts much?

What you said was that if tradition was all that mattered, we should get Ernie Banks to play. That's either a poor attempt at humor, or it's a poor attempt at logic. Either way, it's very stupid and reflects the quality of posts I think many of us have come to expect from you.

Then you ask Strife to rationalize why moving Ramirez down in the order is a bad idea, as if he has ever even said that. Nobody with a brain would disagree that moving him down until he figures it out is a good idea, and nobody in this thread has said anything that would go against that logic.

This thread is full of your straw men. Maybe you should learn to "read much" and stop arguing with yourself.

Well here I go:

Moving Aramis Ramirez down in the batting order is a bad idea, with on caveat: If he is still feeling lingering effects from his shoulder/ST injury, either in the form of it still hurting him or in the form of his timing not being right.

There is one goal in constructing a lineup: Optimizing it to be the best lineup on a given day. There is also only one criteria for doing this: Who you think is going to perform best that day. I've said it before and I'll say it again, there are only two measures of the value of a hitter in a given lineup spot: How many PA's a lineup spot will have and how many PAs with RISP a given spot in the lineup will have. Its pretty categorical regardless of how good your offense is, each slot in the batting order has fewer PA than the one before it, and the difference is pretty constant, about 18 PA. As far as RISP goes, there is some debate on that, but what research that has been done has indicated that the 4 hitter gets the most % of PA with RISP.

We all know where the rest of this goes, when you weigh the total PA to % of RISP on each other, you come out with a surprising preference for the first and second spots in the order over the third, with a strong OBP slant towards the top of the order and more of a power slant in the 3 and 5 spots. The best hitter should hit fourth.

This means that whoever you think is the most likely to be the best hitter on a given day, he should bat 4th if he has any kind of power. The same logic should applied to everywhere else in the batting order: 2nd/3rd best hitters setting the table if they have on base ability, etc., and this is all based on who is the most likely best hitter for the future, not the past. You can't effect things in the present because the batting order is locked in at the start of the game.

We also know that the relative impact of a single game or even a week of games is relatively small when discussing something as lineup construction. But while you can argue the weight of the decision, you can't argue the merit of making the right decision. What's good for a couple months is good for a day assuming the expected value of the hitters doesn't change.

All of this is a preamble for this simple point: The only reason to move Ramirez down in the order is if you think he is not likely to be the best hitter on the Cubs in the next game.

The only way we really have to predict such things is to analyze the past by looking at Ramirez's past performance and fitting that into we know that normally has the highest correlations between the past and the future. This brings us to the next big point: what we think is the biggest indicator of past performance, broken down into two very neat groups: the larger sample size of his career, or the shorter more recent past of ST and April. There really aren't any other factors. If you go by the larger sample size, then Aramis Ramirez is our best hitter going forward, and he should hit 4th. If not, then he should be benched until he can have a hot game or a bench player fails to assert himself OR he should hit 8th, as he still isn't fully back from missing ST and literally all he needs is PA. Those are the only logical options. Batting him 5th or 6th or 7th or something just doesn't follow.

I don't really see any reason to think he's still feeling lingering effects from his shoulder or ST or something. I'm also a big advocate of the larger sample size tells you more than the most recent memory of things. Therefore I still think Aramis Ramirez is the most likely to be our best hitter in every game he plays in the future, and should bat 4th.

semperfi
05-02-2010, 05:19 PM
Well put Strife

4cubs
05-02-2010, 05:37 PM
I also agree with your explanation Str1fe5.

But where is the tipping point? Meaning, how many more games of Aramis' poor hitting will it take to statistically justify making the change to batting him lower in the order?

Diehdcubsfan2
05-02-2010, 05:38 PM
Well here I go:

Moving Aramis Ramirez down in the batting order is a bad idea, with on caveat: If he is still feeling lingering effects from his shoulder/ST injury, either in the form of it still hurting him or in the form of his timing not being right.

There is one goal in constructing a lineup: Optimizing it to be the best lineup on a given day. There is also only one criteria for doing this: Who you think is going to perform best that day. I've said it before and I'll say it again, there are only two measures of the value of a hitter in a given lineup spot: How many PA's a lineup spot will have and how many PAs with RISP a given spot in the lineup will have. Its pretty categorical regardless of how good your offense is, each slot in the batting order has fewer PA than the one before it, and the difference is pretty constant, about 18 PA. As far as RISP goes, there is some debate on that, but what research that has been done has indicated that the 4 hitter gets the most % of PA with RISP.

We all know where the rest of this goes, when you weigh the total PA to % of RISP on each other, you come out with a surprising preference for the first and second spots in the order over the third, with a strong OBP slant towards the top of the order and more of a power slant in the 3 and 5 spots. The best hitter should hit fourth.

This means that whoever you think is the most likely to be the best hitter on a given day, he should bat 4th if he has any kind of power. The same logic should applied to everywhere else in the batting order: 2nd/3rd best hitters setting the table if they have on base ability, etc., and this is all based on who is the most likely best hitter for the future, not the past. You can't effect things in the present because the batting order is locked in at the start of the game.

We also know that the relative impact of a single game or even a week of games is relatively small when discussing something as lineup construction. But while you can argue the weight of the decision, you can't argue the merit of making the right decision. What's good for a couple months is good for a day assuming the expected value of the hitters doesn't change.

All of this is a preamble for this simple point: The only reason to move Ramirez down in the order is if you think he is not likely to be the best hitter on the Cubs in the next game.

The only way we really have to predict such things is to analyze the past by looking at Ramirez's past performance and fitting that into we know that normally has the highest correlations between the past and the future. This brings us to the next big point: what we think is the biggest indicator of past performance, broken down into two very neat groups: the larger sample size of his career, or the shorter more recent past of ST and April. There really aren't any other factors. If you go by the larger sample size, then Aramis Ramirez is our best hitter going forward, and he should hit 4th. If not, then he should be benched until he can have a hot game or a bench player fails to assert himself OR he should hit 8th, as he still isn't fully back from missing ST and literally all he needs is PA. Those are the only logical options. Batting him 5th or 6th or 7th or something just doesn't follow.

I don't really see any reason to think he's still feeling lingering effects from his shoulder or ST or something. I'm also a big advocate of the larger sample size tells you more than the most recent memory of things. Therefore I still think Aramis Ramirez is the most likely to be our best hitter in every game he plays in the future, and should bat 4th.

Very nicely put sir, I agree.

I am big with sample size to, but when is that not relevant with ram. No doubt he has the potential to be the biggest run producing threat on the roster. So its fine to assume he will get back to his old ways. In which, he has started hitting better anyway, K's less and all. So yes, 4th is the best spot for him on any given day. When Lou puts together his line-up he should never question who his best hitter is, its Ram.

I don't like him 8th, even in a cold streak, you'll still missing out on his biggest value asset. It's just not smart baseball to bat him lower.

Like I said though, when do you make a change. I really don't know, but if this continues till like the All-star game, then you need to make a change, which would just be batting him lower. Then if he starts to hit again, then you move him back, but for the time being and this short sample size of a month, making a change now is to soon.

Jilly Bohnson
05-02-2010, 05:44 PM
Well here I go:

Moving Aramis Ramirez down in the batting order is a bad idea, with on caveat: If he is still feeling lingering effects from his shoulder/ST injury, either in the form of it still hurting him or in the form of his timing not being right.

There is one goal in constructing a lineup: Optimizing it to be the best lineup on a given day. There is also only one criteria for doing this: Who you think is going to perform best that day. I've said it before and I'll say it again, there are only two measures of the value of a hitter in a given lineup spot: How many PA's a lineup spot will have and how many PAs with RISP a given spot in the lineup will have. Its pretty categorical regardless of how good your offense is, each slot in the batting order has fewer PA than the one before it, and the difference is pretty constant, about 18 PA. As far as RISP goes, there is some debate on that, but what research that has been done has indicated that the 4 hitter gets the most % of PA with RISP.

We all know where the rest of this goes, when you weigh the total PA to % of RISP on each other, you come out with a surprising preference for the first and second spots in the order over the third, with a strong OBP slant towards the top of the order and more of a power slant in the 3 and 5 spots. The best hitter should hit fourth.

This means that whoever you think is the most likely to be the best hitter on a given day, he should bat 4th if he has any kind of power. The same logic should applied to everywhere else in the batting order: 2nd/3rd best hitters setting the table if they have on base ability, etc., and this is all based on who is the most likely best hitter for the future, not the past. You can't effect things in the present because the batting order is locked in at the start of the game.

We also know that the relative impact of a single game or even a week of games is relatively small when discussing something as lineup construction. But while you can argue the weight of the decision, you can't argue the merit of making the right decision. What's good for a couple months is good for a day assuming the expected value of the hitters doesn't change.

All of this is a preamble for this simple point: The only reason to move Ramirez down in the order is if you think he is not likely to be the best hitter on the Cubs in the next game.

The only way we really have to predict such things is to analyze the past by looking at Ramirez's past performance and fitting that into we know that normally has the highest correlations between the past and the future. This brings us to the next big point: what we think is the biggest indicator of past performance, broken down into two very neat groups: the larger sample size of his career, or the shorter more recent past of ST and April. There really aren't any other factors. If you go by the larger sample size, then Aramis Ramirez is our best hitter going forward, and he should hit 4th. If not, then he should be benched until he can have a hot game or a bench player fails to assert himself OR he should hit 8th, as he still isn't fully back from missing ST and literally all he needs is PA. Those are the only logical options. Batting him 5th or 6th or 7th or something just doesn't follow.

I don't really see any reason to think he's still feeling lingering effects from his shoulder or ST or something. I'm also a big advocate of the larger sample size tells you more than the most recent memory of things. Therefore I still think Aramis Ramirez is the most likely to be our best hitter in every game he plays in the future, and should bat 4th.

This. This. 1 million times this.

Reese's
05-02-2010, 05:49 PM
yeah I agree. His struggles are probably most likely b/c he is still feeling some pain from the injury last year. Right now Lou is doing a good thing by giving A-Ram a few days off here and there and playing Tracy. Give Aramis some time, he's still healing and it's only one month into the season!

Str1fe5
05-02-2010, 05:51 PM
I also agree with your explanation Str1fe5.

But where is the tipping point? Meaning, how many more games of Aramis' poor hitting will it take to statistically justify making the change to batting him lower in the order?

well one month is certainly too early. I'd probably say another 3-4 weeks of playing *this bad* would get me to think about platooning him with tracy and batting him lower, because that would mean there is clearly something wrong with him. If he starts to hit well going forward though, even if it takes a while for his numbers to catch up with career levels i wouldn't move him. So like if he produces at an 825 OPS level for the month of may and his overall line is still pretty poor going into june 1, I'd still bat him 4th just because that means he's probably really close. He doesn't need to just flip a switch and instantly be Rammy for a month, cuz baseball just doesn't work that way.

4cubs
05-02-2010, 05:52 PM
Contribute meaningful posts much?

What you said was that if tradition was all that mattered, we should get Ernie Banks to play. That's either a poor attempt at humor, or it's a poor attempt at logic. Either way, it's very stupid and reflects the quality of posts I think many of us have come to expect from you.

Then you ask Strife to rationalize why moving Ramirez down in the order is a bad idea, as if he has ever even said that. Nobody with a brain would disagree that moving him down until he figures it out is a good idea, and nobody in this thread has said anything that would go against that logic.

This thread is full of your straw men. Maybe you should learn to "read much" and stop arguing with yourself.


I'm just going to say that you shouldn't speak for Strife. He does in fact think moving Ramirez down is a bad idea.

Milnertime, based on your 'logic' above, are we to conclude you think Strife doesn't have a brain?

Str1fe5
05-02-2010, 06:04 PM
Milnertime, based on your 'logic' above, are we to conclude you think Strife doesn't have a brain?

:laugh2: oh man milner is getting killed for that one. Sorry bud *shrug*

Diehdcubsfan2
05-02-2010, 06:06 PM
:laugh2: oh man milner is getting killed for that one. Sorry bud *shrug*

I had to re-read Milner's post like 400 times to understand it, for some reason it just never clicked. He has like a double negative within his text, confused me.

Doogolas
05-02-2010, 06:26 PM
He still didn't want to be moved down. Whether he was hurt or not, he was still playing. Maybe Ramirez is still hurt? He was hurt in spring training, who's to say he's still not hurt.

Find me a quote where Soriano said, "I don't want to hit lower in the order." Not a quote saying he likes leading off. That is meaningless. Who cares if he /likes/ to lead off? It's what he's always done. Soriano has NEVER said he doesn't WANT to be moved down. That is BLATANT ********.

semperfi
05-02-2010, 06:32 PM
Find me a quote where Soriano said, "I don't want to hit lower in the order." Not a quote saying he likes leading off. That is meaningless. Who cares if he /likes/ to lead off? It's what he's always done. Soriano has NEVER said he doesn't WANT to be moved down. That is BLATANT ********.

You know what, you're right. He has never come out and said it. But Soriano is very politically correct. The man is like the complete opposite of Milton Bradley.

Doogolas
05-02-2010, 06:44 PM
You know what, you're right. He has never come out and said it. But Soriano is very politically correct. The man is like the complete opposite of Milton Bradley.

So if he's never said it then it's not true. When he was moved he didn't throw a fit. Hell, the media BEGGED him to throw a fit and all he ever said was, "I do what my manager tells me. Whatever helps us win games is what I want to do."

semperfi
05-02-2010, 06:46 PM
So if he's never said it then it's not true. When he was moved he didn't throw a fit. Hell, the media BEGGED him to throw a fit and all he ever said was, "I do what my manager tells me. Whatever helps us win games is what I want to do."

The only thing he really said was that he wanted to stay in one spot. Man I thought I remember him saying he really wanted to only hit lead off. My mistake.

Doogolas
05-02-2010, 06:48 PM
The only thing he really said was that he wanted to stay in one spot. Man I thought I remember him saying he really wanted to only hit lead off. My mistake.

No worries. Everybody thought he said that. But he really didn't. The media just twists **** cause they hate him for getting a big contract.

semperfi
05-02-2010, 06:51 PM
No worries. Everybody thought he said that. But he really didn't. The media just twists **** cause they hate him for getting a big contract.

Well when you look up the definition of media. It's listed as "to cause as much drama as possible to make the most money". Source= My *** hole.

KOENIG
05-02-2010, 07:30 PM
Soto's walking more because pitchers are pitching around him to get to the pitcher. Ramirez and Lee need to start hitting. Hendry needs to trade a SP and put Zambrano back where he belongs.

Diehdcubsfan2
05-03-2010, 11:14 AM
Soto's walking more because pitchers are pitching around him to get to the pitcher. Ramirez and Lee need to start hitting. Hendry needs to trade a SP and put Zambrano back where he belongs.

Someone posted this Yesterday I think, Doesn't he have like 12 walk this season with a 0-2 count. The pitcher clearly was not trying to walk him, that takes a hell of a good PA to rebound from that. Then the article about his patients and him basically only swinging at good pitches in good counts. His approach should stay the same if thats the case.

cowboydoc45
05-03-2010, 11:22 AM
Someone posted this Yesterday I think, Doesn't he have like 12 walk this season with a 0-2 count. The pitcher clearly was not trying to walk him, that takes a hell of a good PA to rebound from that. Then the article about his patients and him basically only swinging at good pitches in good counts. His approach should stay the same if thats the case.

Paging Dr. Soto :laugh2:

Diehdcubsfan2
05-03-2010, 11:29 AM
Paging Dr. Soto :laugh2:

Shut up I wrote this fast, FF should not only have spell Checker, but grammar and context checker, for the stupid ones.

Jilly Bohnson
05-03-2010, 11:36 AM
I don't know why but saying patients like that reminds me of this:

http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/33f2687080/good-cop-baby-cop-from-will-ferrell-and-adam-ghost-panther-mckay

cowboydoc45
05-03-2010, 11:39 AM
Shut up I wrote this fast, FF should not only have spell Checker, but grammar and context checker, for the stupid ones.

I just thought it was funny because I litterally read that right after writing a note... and probably only picked up on it because I had to type it so many times.

Diehdcubsfan2
05-03-2010, 11:43 AM
So now my uncle and I are arguing about Ram and where he should bat. He really wants to justify that 100 Ab means he sucks and should have less playing time.

cowboydoc45
05-03-2010, 11:52 AM
So now my uncle and I are arguing about Ram and where he should bat. He really wants to justify that 100 Ab means he sucks and should have less playing time.

Given that our other option is Tracy... :laugh2: NO!!! He should probably be dropped to 6 or 7 until he can start producing (and then move him back to 4 or 5).

BDawk4Prez
05-03-2010, 11:58 AM
Dr. Soto.

I like it.

Diehdcubsfan2
05-03-2010, 11:58 AM
Given that our other option is Tracy... :laugh2: NO!!! He should probably be dropped to 6 or 7 until he can start producing (and then move him back to 4 or 5).

Well I've been saying stuff like that, my main point being his history says hes the best hitter, his 100abs this season does not mean much, sample size is huge in this case.

I do think batting him 4th is the best option, at least for a little while more, he needs more PA to justify him not being the Cubs best hitter.

Then he said like less playing time or platoon, which is stupid on both accounts.

cowboydoc45
05-03-2010, 12:07 PM
Well I've been saying stuff like that, my main point being his history says hes the best hitter, his 100abs this season does not mean much, sample size is huge in this case.

I do think batting him 4th is the best option, at least for a little while more, he needs more PA to justify him not being the Cubs best hitter.

Then he said like less playing time or platoon, which is stupid on both accounts.

I think the couple of days off to work with Jaramillo might have helped. Ramierez is usually a slow starter, but will probably pick back up. Until then I am in no way opposed to having someone like Byrd, Soriano, or Soto handling clean up duties.

Diehdcubsfan2
05-03-2010, 12:17 PM
I think the couple of days off to work with Jaramillo might have helped. Ramierez is usually a slow starter, but will probably pick back up. Until then I am in no way opposed to having someone like Byrd, Soriano, or Soto handling clean up duties.

I say just let him play through it, he has shown he is the best hitter the cubs have, just in a slump. He will rebound soon and when he does I want him batting in the best spot for him, which is 4th. His 100 Abs this season don't mean a thing, not yet at least. No doubt he is working with Rudy, he'll be fine.

flips333
05-03-2010, 01:57 PM
I just can't wrap my mind around this concept. I don't understand. Is Lou really that dumb? Can a manager of a major league baseball team really be that incompetent? As most of you know, Geovany Soto is having a great season at the plate. He is currently at a .340/.500/.528/1.028. He accomplished that line by becoming much more selective at the plate. He simply stopped swinging at pitches out of the zone and doesn't even swing as often at pitches in the zone. He is waiting for a pitch to hit or drawing a walk. Soto has already drawn 17 walks.

That .340 average will regress and in turn, so will the OBP, but Soto still has .160 points of separation in his AVG and OBP, which means he will be maintaining a high OBP when his stats regress. His high BABIP isn't completely fluky when you see his ridiculous 31% LD ratio.

I just can't see why a player hitting so damn well is being wasted in the 8th spot. He is getting second fewest plate appearances while everyone in front of him in the order is hitting worse than he is. I'm glad he is drawing all of these walks right in front of the pitcher so we can sac bunt every game :rolleyes:.

Taking our lineup today and plugging it into this lineup analysis (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py) with the current players numbers, we get 5.470 runs per game. If you simply switch Soto and Theriot at the 8 and 1 spots (which doesn't even make our lineup optimal), we score 5.7 runs per game, or 40 more runs per year, about 4 more wins. This is just a rough estimate with the current numbers that our players have put up this year. If I got to make a lineup right now, it would look something like:

Soto
Fukudome
Lee
Ramirez
Byrd
Soriano
Theriot
Fontenot

Oh wait, can Soto not lead off because he is fat? **** that. I put Theriot in front of Fontenot because he has both a better OBP and SLG than Fontenot, otherwise I like Theriot in the 8 (or even 9th) spot. Lee and Ramirez will hit. Soto, Fukudome, Byrd and Soriano are all having great seasons at the plate, better than I expected. Theriot is hitting well. We're getting great production from the 2B platoon. The fact of the matter is, this team will score more runs than they have showed. We shouldn't be hampering them with ******** lineups. At the very least, make me happy and have Fukudome lead off.

You can easily just say "It's Lou, what do you expect?" Well, I expect ****y lineups, I'm just frustrated that I have to continue to settle for such incompetence all season long.

BTW, why do I still see people wanting to get rid of Fukudome? Sure he is getting payed a lot, but he is an awesome hitter and save quite a few runs in the field. I don't understand. I've seen too much "dump Fukudome" trade talk.

The reason for that ridiculous OBP is the 8th spot... take him out of there and his eye will not look s good.

hoggin88
05-03-2010, 02:07 PM
The reason for that ridiculous OBP is the 8th spot... take him out of there and his eye will not look s good.

Yeah I think a .487 OBP is right around league average for 8 hitters in the NL.

Canada's Finest
05-03-2010, 03:15 PM
The reason for that ridiculous OBP is the 8th spot... take him out of there and his eye will not look s good.

Keep in mind that he's not going to get good pitches to hit in the 8th spot, with the pitcher due up behind him. So maybe his walks will go down, but the hittable pitches he sees will likely go up.

Milnertime
05-03-2010, 04:13 PM
Well here I go:

Moving Aramis Ramirez down in the batting order is a bad idea, with on caveat: If he is still feeling lingering effects from his shoulder/ST injury, either in the form of it still hurting him or in the form of his timing not being right.

There is one goal in constructing a lineup: Optimizing it to be the best lineup on a given day. There is also only one criteria for doing this: Who you think is going to perform best that day. I've said it before and I'll say it again, there are only two measures of the value of a hitter in a given lineup spot: How many PA's a lineup spot will have and how many PAs with RISP a given spot in the lineup will have. Its pretty categorical regardless of how good your offense is, each slot in the batting order has fewer PA than the one before it, and the difference is pretty constant, about 18 PA. As far as RISP goes, there is some debate on that, but what research that has been done has indicated that the 4 hitter gets the most % of PA with RISP.

We all know where the rest of this goes, when you weigh the total PA to % of RISP on each other, you come out with a surprising preference for the first and second spots in the order over the third, with a strong OBP slant towards the top of the order and more of a power slant in the 3 and 5 spots. The best hitter should hit fourth.

This means that whoever you think is the most likely to be the best hitter on a given day, he should bat 4th if he has any kind of power. The same logic should applied to everywhere else in the batting order: 2nd/3rd best hitters setting the table if they have on base ability, etc., and this is all based on who is the most likely best hitter for the future, not the past. You can't effect things in the present because the batting order is locked in at the start of the game.

We also know that the relative impact of a single game or even a week of games is relatively small when discussing something as lineup construction. But while you can argue the weight of the decision, you can't argue the merit of making the right decision. What's good for a couple months is good for a day assuming the expected value of the hitters doesn't change.

All of this is a preamble for this simple point: The only reason to move Ramirez down in the order is if you think he is not likely to be the best hitter on the Cubs in the next game.

The only way we really have to predict such things is to analyze the past by looking at Ramirez's past performance and fitting that into we know that normally has the highest correlations between the past and the future. This brings us to the next big point: what we think is the biggest indicator of past performance, broken down into two very neat groups: the larger sample size of his career, or the shorter more recent past of ST and April. There really aren't any other factors. If you go by the larger sample size, then Aramis Ramirez is our best hitter going forward, and he should hit 4th. If not, then he should be benched until he can have a hot game or a bench player fails to assert himself OR he should hit 8th, as he still isn't fully back from missing ST and literally all he needs is PA. Those are the only logical options. Batting him 5th or 6th or 7th or something just doesn't follow.

I don't really see any reason to think he's still feeling lingering effects from his shoulder or ST or something. I'm also a big advocate of the larger sample size tells you more than the most recent memory of things. Therefore I still think Aramis Ramirez is the most likely to be our best hitter in every game he plays in the future, and should bat 4th.

Well put, and in general, I agree with this sentiment. I know that Aramis is likely the best hitter on the team. The only difference for me is that Aramis hasn't been acting like the old Aramis lately. He looks off balance on almost every swing.

I think there is some predictive value to recent PAs, especially with how a player looks in their mechanics. If Aramis's swing is bad, it's not just going to magically fix itself from one day to the next. I would have no problem batting him 6th as a manager, until he comes to me and says "my swing's back."

Like you said, the 4th spot is most likely to come up with men on base or with RISP. I don't want to waste those valuable PAs on a guy who isn't swinging the bat right, even if he's the best on the team when all is said and done. It's not like Aramis has been unlucky, here....he was struggling to hit line drives, like, at all.

Sometimes, I think we get caught up in the statistical side of things and we forget that it takes more than talent to hit that ball as consistently as those guys do. Bad mechanics are going to make it hard to succeed. Obviously, I'm no hitting coach, but it seems like Aramis is off....or he was until recently.

As of now, I'd prefer Aramis in the cleanup spot. His ABs have looked better and he's been hitting the ball hard, just right at guys, which we all know is a good sign.

About 2 weeks ago, though....I would have moved him down and put Soriano there.

The reason for that ridiculous OBP is the 8th spot... take him out of there and his eye will not look s good.

This is just silly.

Milnertime
05-03-2010, 04:14 PM
Milnertime, based on your 'logic' above, are we to conclude you think Strife doesn't have a brain?
Only sometimes.

You, on the other hand, generally fail to have an original thought....or at least an original thought that contributes much of anything.

Jilly Bohnson
05-03-2010, 04:25 PM
The reason for that ridiculous OBP is the 8th spot... take him out of there and his eye will not look s good.

I do agree with this to an extent, but I don't think the 8 spot is all or even most of the reason. He has been legitimately very patient this year. I mean he's not a 25% of his PA's walker, but I think maybe something like 15-18% for both walks and K's is probably his true talent level right now even without the pitcher hitting behind him.

flips333
05-04-2010, 12:00 PM
Yeah I think a .487 OBP is right around league average for 8 hitters in the NL.



This is just silly.

If you take a guy who could hit 5 and stick him in the 8 spot and his BB should go through the roof... Perhaps you should both take the time to think about it.

flips333
05-04-2010, 12:02 PM
I do agree with this to an extent, but I don't think the 8 spot is all or even most of the reason. He has been legitimately very patient this year. I mean he's not a 25% of his PA's walker, but I think maybe something like 15-18% for both walks and K's is probably his true talent level right now even without the pitcher hitting behind him.

His patience is something... gotten alot better, I also don't think it's all about the 8th spot.

I just think the quality of the pitches when pitchers pitch around him would be better if he were say hitting 7th with fonte behind him. Or hell hitting 4th with rammy behind him. I wonder how much is his patience and how much is the fact that pitchers have no reason to go anywhere near the strike zone with him half the time he comes up to the plate.

Jilly Bohnson
05-04-2010, 12:31 PM
His patience is something... gotten alot better, I also don't think it's all about the 8th spot.

I just think the quality of the pitches when pitchers pitch around him would be better if he were say hitting 7th with fonte behind him. Or hell hitting 4th with rammy behind him. I wonder how much is his patience and how much is the fact that pitchers have no reason to go anywhere near the strike zone with him half the time he comes up to the plate.

I agree with this, I just think your last post made it sound like it was all or mostly about hitting 8th.

Str1fe5
05-04-2010, 01:35 PM
If you take a guy who could hit 5 and stick him in the 8 spot and his BB should go through the roof... Perhaps you should both take the time to think about it.

No, no it wouldn't. It *might* rise a little bit, but you are over exaggerating how much pitchers pitch around 8 hitter in the NL. Most guys go after the 8 hitter specifically to set up the next inning so that they lead off with the pitcher. The incentive for that scenario is just as high as any other unless we're talking about when runners are in scoring position. Even if you took *100* points of OBP off of Soto, he would still be one of the top hitters on the team, and should still hit higher than 8th. Batting Geovany Soto 8th for what, 22 starts when he's been this hot is ridiculous. So would we expect Geo to have the exact same batting line in the 8 hole vs the 5th? No, probably not, but it wouldn't be a drastic difference, at all.

flips333
05-04-2010, 01:44 PM
No, no it wouldn't. It *might* rise a little bit, but you are over exaggerating how much pitchers pitch around 8 hitter in the NL. Most guys go after the 8 hitter specifically to set up the next inning so that they lead off with the pitcher. The incentive for that scenario is just as high as any other unless we're talking about when runners are in scoring position. Even if you took *100* points of OBP off of Soto, he would still be one of the top hitters on the team, and should still hit higher than 8th. Batting Geovany Soto 8th for what, 22 starts when he's been this hot is ridiculous. So would we expect Geo to have the exact same batting line in the 8 hole vs the 5th? No, probably not, but it wouldn't be a drastic difference, at all.

All we know is how he's performed in the 8th hole. Everything else is conjecture. And what we know about how pitchers pitch against 8 hitters is not valid against a guy like geo (most 8 hitters are not power guys) Keep in mind that geo has seen only 41.1% of pitches in the strike zone this year. Doesn't sound like they are "going after him" to me.

And your analysis only makes sense in the situation that the 8th hitter comes up with 2 outs.

flips333
05-04-2010, 01:49 PM
I agree with this, I just think your last post made it sound like it was all or mostly about hitting 8th.

I honestly have no clue the extent of the impact... Soto is swinging less, and seeing less strikes. I don't know if it's a change in his hitting philosophy, or a change he's made cause of where he is hitting in the lineup.

windycityD
05-04-2010, 02:53 PM
I honestly have no clue the extent of the impact... Soto is swinging less, and seeing less strikes. I don't know if it's a change in his hitting philosophy, or a change he's made cause of where he is hitting in the lineup.

Not swinging at bad pitches- which he has seen a steady diet of- is a marker of improvement. That has nothing to do with the line up and everything to do with his approach.

4cubs
05-05-2010, 08:07 PM
Why are the Cubs putting their worst hitter in the 4 or 5 spot (or in the lineup at all)?

I am sure this is an unpopular statement with loyal Cubs fans. After all Aramis has been the team's most consistent and best hitter traditionally.

However, if it is tradition that is of the upmost importance, why aren't we playing Ernie Banks?

Lou professes about putting the hot hitters in the lineup. Certainly someone must be hotter than Aramis?

Letting a veteran proven hitter work his way out of a slump is one thing, but the Cubs are in May with a sub-500 record, 3rd in the division and already 4.5 games behind the Cards.

I expect Aramis to turn this around any day now. However, I've been thinking that for over a month.

Can the Cubs afford to wait much longer?
The wait is over; Aramis in the 6 hole tonight.