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thornga2
04-19-2010, 07:10 PM
I have been as pleased as the next guy with Colvin's performance so far this season. Most people, including myself, had all but written him off as a prospect. However, I read somewhere recently that it wasn't until Colvin got to Tennessee last year that he was entirely recovered from his Tommy John Surgery of the previous year. Supposedly, a lot of his struggles at the plate were related to his bat speed not being completely back post-surgery.

But once he got to Tennesse, supposedly totally healthy,

In 2007, had a very good debut in professional baseball. He hit .299/.324/.488 between A+ and AA. In 125 games, he hit 35 doubles, 5 triples, and 16 home runs, so he showed some serious power potential. He also stole 17 out of 22 bases. The only knock on his game was that he struck out a lot, and barely ever walked. He struck out 101 times while walking only 15 times in 519 plate appearances.

He struggled quite a bit in 2008, playing the entire season in AA, producing a line .256/.312/.424. His power numbers were down, hitting fewer doubles (27) and home runs (14) than in 2007 with more plate appearances. The only real positives of his 2008 season were that his K/BB ratio improved greatly. He walked a much more respectable 44 times in 602 plate appearances.

In 2009, he started out the season back in Daytona, where he struggled mightily, but eventually got called up to Tennessee, where he put up the best stats of his career. He hit .300/.334/.524 with 14 HR, 13 2B, an 7 3B. He knocked in 50 runs and scored 50 more in what was essentially half a season. Double all those stats and you are looking at some pretty good production.

Now, I didn't know what to make of this at first, but I did a little digging and found out that he had Tommy John surgery after the 2008 season. Supposedly his elbow was affecting his bat speed, which hurt his ability to hit for average and power that season. After the surgery, he struggled to start the year in Daytona. I read that his bat speed was still not back to where it should be because he was not fully recovered from his surgery. However, when he was completely healthy, he got called back up to Tennessee, where he put up those monster stats. Then he had a great spring training and made the big league club. What I think this means:

I think it means that Colvin's minor league struggles had a lot to do with his elbow problems that are not gone. I also think those elbow problems may have been a blessing in disguise, because he never walked in 2007, but walked a lot more in 2008 when he was struggling at the plate. It is possible that he learned to be more patient at the plate when hitting racking up the extra base hits was not coming as easily. So maybe the decent plate discipline that we have seen so far this season isn't just a fluke, but rather it's something Colvin "turns on" when he needs it, which he didn't in 2007, or last year when he was crushing the ball in AA, or this spring when he was hitting everything.

All this to say that after doing some research I once again see Colvin as a very legit high end prospect, even though he is already 24 years old. I think that he should get sent down to AAA to get AB's everyday. He can get called up when somebody goes on the DL, but either way he needs to plat every day, and I think he should be ready for a full time job next season as a 25 year old. I really like his upside, which I see around .290/.340/.500. He has the ability to rack up tons of extra base hits and play good defense in the outfield. I think he could be one of the best offensive CF's in the game in a few years.

CUBDOM4life
04-19-2010, 07:40 PM
Soriano's strugles can be attributed to his knee just as Colvin's is constantly attributed to his arm.

I still don't think too highly of Colvin.

Darwinist
04-19-2010, 08:56 PM
You are much more optimistic than I am.

thornga2
04-19-2010, 09:31 PM
I understand why people may not be as optimistic as I am, but if part of his struggles in 2008 and early 2009 can be attributed to his elbow issues, then his production is very good.

I think he should get sent to AAA to work with Von Joshua for the rest of this season. He has a lot of ability.

cubsofchicago
04-20-2010, 10:44 AM
Soriano's strugles can be attributed to his knee just as Colvin's is constantly attributed to his arm.

I still don't think too highly of Colvin.

soriano's stugles can be attributed to his knee??? no, Soriano is a streaky hitter.. that just what he is..hes going to suck for a month plus but give you great numbers for the next period..that's the player he was before we signed him and that is the player hes going to be with us even after a knee injury...basically never count on soriano to carry a team because if we do hes going to disappoint you for a good portion of the season

man man
04-20-2010, 01:01 PM
I'm still not sold on Colvin yet, the season is too young - and so is his success. If he's still consistently doing good work in a few months I'll definitely reconsider.

i really hope nobody is hoping on soriano to carry this team.

semperfi
04-20-2010, 01:37 PM
I'm still not sold on Colvin yet, the season is too young - and so is his success. If he's still consistently doing good work in a few months I'll definitely reconsider.

i really hope nobody is hoping on soriano to carry this team.

There's not one player on this team that is good enough to "carry us". The whole team needs to be working good at the same time all season. We don't have a Miguel Cabrera or ARod or Albert Pujols.

thornga2
04-20-2010, 02:29 PM
I'm still not sold on Colvin yet, the season is too young - and so is his success. If he's still consistently doing good work in a few months I'll definitely reconsider.

i really hope nobody is hoping on soriano to carry this team.

My liking Colvin has less to do with this season so far, and more to do with the fact that he crushed the ball in AA last year once he was supposedly completely healthy.

And while nobody is counting on Soriano to carry the team, they need him to play well in order to make the playoffs. Hendry has buttered his bread with guys like Soriano, Byrd, and Fukudome, so if this team makes the playoffs, it will be with them playing everyday. Colvin isn't ready yet, but give him a year with Von Joshua and I think he might be ready for 2011.

WOwolfOL
04-25-2010, 09:56 PM
Tyler has amazing quickness through the zone, he really squares the ball up very well. We really haven't seen this version of him before, with the added muscle and, aforementioned coalescence. I think we've got a very good player and he's 24, he is at the age where he should be in the majors. He's shown consistency even with sporadic playing time. He's shown that, despite historically, not taking many walks, he does have a very good eye at the plate and a tremendous ability to make contact. He is really valuable, at this rate. I think we should all just be happy he's with us.

His compact swing reminds me of Chase Utley... he doesn't open up and he doesn't fly off with his head... just a pure, quick, compact swing. He's freakin awesome.

zambo4president
04-26-2010, 12:51 AM
I dunno I always liked Colvin, alot of you guys were soooo sure he sucked and was a bust. He's looking great right now, hope he can keep this up.

Doogolas
04-26-2010, 12:59 AM
I'm pretty sure everyone hopes he can keep it up.

zambo4president
04-26-2010, 01:04 AM
I'm pretty sure everyone hopes he can keep it up.

Not wittle Sam Fuld:no:

thornga2
04-26-2010, 02:10 AM
Lou is in a bit of a pickle with his outfield. Colvin needs to be in the lineup.

As a starter-.385/.429/.846.

Pinch Hitting/Late Inning Replacement- .143/.333/.143

He is also a better fielder than Byrd of Soriano. However, Soriano's .872 OPS is the worst of the group. Lou has done a decent job of shuffling them, keeping them all rested, as well as playing the streaks a little bit. Still, Colvin has been the teams best hitter to this point. I am not at all against trading for a legit setup guy, but if they intend to keep him, he needs to be in the lineup at least 4 times a week.

Doogolas
04-26-2010, 02:24 AM
You're talking about an absolutely TINY sample size. Don't even bother looking into those numbers.

And actually, he's a worse CF than Byrd. And it's really not close. And while Sori's .872 may be "worst in the group" it's also "most proven in the group" and therefore "most likely to be maintained throughout a season" in the group.

Lou should just continue rotating the four of them to keep them fresh.

Captain Obvious
04-26-2010, 02:25 AM
Lou is in a bit of a pickle with his outfield. Colvin needs to be in the lineup.

As a starter-.385/.429/.846.

Pinch Hitting/Late Inning Replacement- .143/.333/.143

He is also a better fielder than Byrd of Soriano. However, Soriano's .872 OPS is the worst of the group. Lou has done a decent job of shuffling them, keeping them all rested, as well as playing the streaks a little bit. Still, Colvin has been the teams best hitter to this point. I am not at all against trading for a legit setup guy, but if they intend to keep him, he needs to be in the lineup at least 4 times a week.

Fuku's OPS is worst of the group. .811. And where do you get .872? Soriano has got a .908.

Colvin is definitely not better at D than Byrd. Byrd's UZR: 1; Colvin's UZR: .6

Colvin has not been our best hitter. Not even close. Soto, Byrd, and Soriano have all been quite a bit better.

Doogolas
04-26-2010, 02:32 AM
Fuku's OPS is worst of the group. .811. And where do you get .872? Soriano has got a .908.

Colvin is definitely not better at D than Byrd. Byrd's UZR: 1; Colvin's UZR: .6

Colvin has not been our best hitter. Not even close. Soto, Byrd, and Soriano have all been quite a bit better.

A) Have you checked the ones updated after today?

Soriano: .300/.338/.533 so really he's at .871.

Fukudome: .333/.400/.588 which is .988

Colvin: .333/.405/.697 that is 1.102

Byrd: .338/.360/.563 And .923

Yeah, so technically Soriano is the worst. However he's been our most consistent hitter all year except for Soto.

B) Honestly, don't even look NEAR UZR yet. You can look at the past though, where Colvin is supposed to be a below average CF defensively and throughout his career Byrd has been above average to very good defensively in CF.

C) UZR/150 would be more accurate anyways. Though still insanely ludicrous to use this early.

As I said before, keep rotating them and hope they all keep performing. And then be extremely happy we have such amazing OF depth.

abe_froman
04-26-2010, 03:05 AM
Lou is in a bit of a pickle with his outfield. Colvin needs to be in the lineup.

As a starter-.385/.429/.846.

Pinch Hitting/Late Inning Replacement- .143/.333/.143

He is also a better fielder than Byrd of Soriano. However, Soriano's .872 OPS is the worst of the group. Lou has done a decent job of shuffling them, keeping them all rested, as well as playing the streaks a little bit. Still, Colvin has been the teams best hitter to this point. I am not at all against trading for a legit setup guy, but if they intend to keep him, he needs to be in the lineup at least 4 times a week.

i actually like colvin alot and want to see him play as much as possible.but who are you going to trade?

also he isnt better than byrd defensively

either way,its not so bad of a problem.which would you rather have,too many good ofers or to few?

ChicagoWind1
04-26-2010, 03:59 AM
What happened to this whole Tracy thing?

Str1fe5
04-26-2010, 08:38 AM
yeah, I agree with Doog. Colvin's great start has been great, and lets appreciate it for what it is - a real hot first 3 weeks of the season. If we could move Fukudome's or Soriano's giant contracts (and got value back for at least Fukudome) to free up room for a deal, I'd be fine with it. If we end up selling high on Colvin and using him in a trade to go get a reliever like Heath Bell, I really like that idea, too. But while he's here, if Soriano is hitting like normal Soriano (.300/.338/.533 is pretty much normal Soriano), then you do what Lou's been doing, you start Soriano. Because you have much better reason to think that what Soriano is doing isn't a fluke, as its pretty much exactly what he normally does when he's not playing on one leg.

Heyyo1900
04-26-2010, 09:33 AM
I'm just excited that our offense is finally producing. It does help that we saw some mediocre/too bad pitching.

bulldog312
04-26-2010, 09:43 AM
As others have said, you just have to keep rotating all 4 in on a regular basis. It isn't that difficult to do in the outfield.

windycityD
04-26-2010, 10:05 AM
yeah, I agree with Doog. Colvin's great start has been great, and lets appreciate it for what it is - a real hot first 3 weeks of the season. If we could move Fukudome's or Soriano's giant contracts (and got value back for at least Fukudome) to free up room for a deal, I'd be fine with it. If we end up selling high on Colvin and using him in a trade to go get a reliever like Heath Bell, I really like that idea, too. But while he's here, if Soriano is hitting like normal Soriano (.300/.338/.533 is pretty much normal Soriano), then you do what Lou's been doing, you start Soriano. Because you have much better reason to think that what Soriano is doing isn't a fluke, as its pretty much exactly what he normally does when he's not playing on one leg.

Colvin by himself wont land a premier right handed set up guy/ closer, especially this early. You're still talking about a better than decent arm going bye bye as well (ex Parker).

For the first time since June 2008, we have an outfield that is working and all producing 1-4. I say we leave that alone.

dabears34ft
04-26-2010, 10:17 AM
I like the depth we have going on in our OF now, so I'd keep rotating our top 4 around. I agree with Sweet Lou that it will help keep players well rested and healthy all year.

Soriano/Byrd/Fuku
Colvin/Byrd/Fuku
Soriano/Fuku/Colvin
Soriano/Byrd/Colvin

Vandelay16
04-26-2010, 10:26 AM
Keep rotating but get Colvin in there more.

hrubes20
04-26-2010, 11:32 AM
It will be interesting to see the following things with Colvin:

1. Can he sustain a decent walk rate? He's shown a very improved eye at the plate this year, IMO, even when he doesn't walk. Lots of full counts and hitters counts. Hopefully he can keep it up.

2. Can he keep the K rate down? He's around 20% right now, which is far from desirable, but tolerable.

3. Is the power legit? He added 20 lbs of muscle in the offseason and it looks to have made him a great deal better at the plate. No, he isn't going to have an ISO anywhere near .364, but can he keep it around .200? He could be a pretty valuable piece, if so.

4. Can he hit lefties? He was pretty even in the righty/left split throught his minor league career, but he's been completely bamboozled by lefties so far in the majors. It's been a really small sample size, so hopefully it is just coincidence, although it is important to note that young left-handed hitters usually struggle against lefties in the bigs. Jason Heyward sucks against lefties right now.

Jilly Bohnson
04-26-2010, 11:36 AM
It will be interesting to see the following things with Colvin:

1. Can he sustain a decent walk rate? He's shown a very improved eye at the plate this year, IMO, even when he doesn't walk. Lots of full counts and hitters counts. Hopefully he can keep it up.

2. Can he keep the K rate down? He's around 20% right now, which is far from desirable, but tolerable.

3. Is the power legit? He added 20 lbs of muscle in the offseason and it looks to have made him a great deal better at the plate. No, he isn't going to have an ISO anywhere near .364, but can he keep it around .200? He could be a pretty valuable piece, if so.

4. Can he hit lefties? He was pretty even in the righty/left split throught his minor league career, but he's been completely bamboozled by lefties so far in the majors. It's been a really small sample size, so hopefully it is just coincidence, although it is important to note that young left-handed hitters usually struggle against lefties in the bigs. Jason Heyward sucks against lefties right now.

Yeah, if his plate discipline is legit that changes everything. It's probably not, it's probably just a matter of it being 40 PA's, but if he's walking 10% of the time, K'ing 20 % of the time, and has an IsoP of .200ish, he'd be very valuable. Because at least for the near future, he should be above average defensively as well.

thornga2
04-26-2010, 12:15 PM
You're talking about an absolutely TINY sample size. Don't even bother looking into those numbers.

And actually, he's a worse CF than Byrd. And it's really not close. And while Sori's .872 may be "worst in the group" it's also "most proven in the group" and therefore "most likely to be maintained throughout a season" in the group.

Lou should just continue rotating the four of them to keep them fresh.

Why would I not look into his 1.100 OPS? And his near 1.300 OPS as a starter? I know its a small sample size, but he has been very good when he has gotten the start. And when all you have is a small sample size, that is what you have to go on.

Byrd has looked pretty bad in CF so far this year from what I have seen. We will see though.

As for Soriano, I noted his OPS more to say that all four are doing really well. I have no problem at all with his production, and I understand that he is the most likely to keep it up over a full season.

I'm not saying that Colvin should replace anybody. I'm just saying he needs to start more than he has been. If he goes cold, then fine. But for now, he needs to be in the lineup with some regularity.

I think that every player should basically play 3 out of every 4 games. Each guy plays three days, and gets one day off. Of course with some tweaking for hot streaks and favorable matchups.

hoggin88
04-26-2010, 12:36 PM
B) Honestly, don't even look NEAR UZR yet. You can look at the past though, where Colvin is supposed to be a below average CF defensively and throughout his career Byrd has been above average to very good defensively in CF.

C) UZR/150 would be more accurate anyways. Though still insanely ludicrous to use this early.

As I said before, keep rotating them and hope they all keep performing. And then be extremely happy we have such amazing OF depth.

I don't know where you're seeing that. In more than 4000 career innings in CF Byrd has a UZR of -13.1 and UZR/150 of -3.9.

But I think he has looked decent out there except for when he gives those ****** weak throws back to the infield because he is rushing the play so badly.

semperfi
04-26-2010, 12:56 PM
I don't know where you're seeing that. In more than 4000 career innings in CF Byrd has a UZR of -13.1 and UZR/150 of -3.9.



It's called blind love. It's the same thing for his man crush on Soriano's Defense. Who once again is one of the worst left fielders in baseball.

Jilly Bohnson
04-26-2010, 01:02 PM
It's called blind love. It's the same thing for his man crush on Soriano's Defense. Who once again is one of the worst left fielders in baseball.

Again, that's not really true. You need to keep in mind that half of the LFers in baseball are practically paraplegic.

fabian555
04-26-2010, 01:03 PM
All those who make the comments i'm NOt sold on Colvin ok, i'll give u that he is still a little green but, to NOt like him i say what are u smoking ? This kid has produced every time he has been given a chance (which is way fewer than he should) maybe he isn't the second coming of A-Rod or Albert Pujols but he will be a good player for years to come! GO TYLER GO CUBS " if we can play the brewers all year we will the WS"

semperfi
04-26-2010, 01:10 PM
Again, that's not really true. You need to keep in mind that half of the LFers in baseball are practically paraplegic.

I understand that. But Soriano's on that teir with Carlos Lee, Manny, Dunn and Braun. Just because a lot of others are bad, doesn't make disasterous look any better.

Jilly Bohnson
04-26-2010, 01:40 PM
I understand that. But Soriano's on that teir with Carlos Lee, Manny, Dunn and Braun. Just because a lot of others are bad, doesn't make disasterous look any better.

He's not nearly as bad as those guys though. He has much more range since unlike Lee, Manny, and Dunn he's a legit athlete, and he also has that cannon arm. Sure he has more gaffes than anyone besides Dunn and maybe Braun, but he makes many more positive plays than any of those guys.

windycityD
04-26-2010, 01:50 PM
He's not nearly as bad as those guys though. He has much more range since unlike Lee, Manny, and Dunn he's a legit athlete, and he also has that cannon arm. Sure he has more gaffes than anyone besides Dunn and maybe Braun, but he makes many more positive plays than any of those guys.

I'm of the opinion that as long as Lou continues to yank AS late in games where we have the lead, all good by me. Colvin has way better range and glove.

In 2007, Yost refused to bring up Braun (then a 3b) until late May b/c of his bad defense, which is also horrible in LF. That decision likely cost them the playoffs. My point is that in LF, you ride out the bad glove with the good bat for as deep in the game as you can.

semperfi
04-26-2010, 02:06 PM
He's not nearly as bad as those guys though. He has much more range since unlike Lee, Manny, and Dunn he's a legit athlete, and he also has that cannon arm. Sure he has more gaffes than anyone besides Dunn and maybe Braun, but he makes many more positive plays than any of those guys.

Can we agree that discussing him with the worst defenders in LF proves the point that he's not an Above Average or even Average LF?

semperfi
04-26-2010, 02:16 PM
I'm of the opinion that as long as Lou continues to yank AS late in games where we have the lead, all good by me. Colvin has way better range and glove.

In 2007, Yost refused to bring up Braun (then a 3b) until late May b/c of his bad defense, which is also horrible in LF. That decision likely cost them the playoffs. My point is that in LF, you ride out the bad glove with the good bat for as deep in the game as you can.

I think that's very true. And it's been proven, you put your defensive liabilties in LF. And if the Bat outweighs the defense, and in every case with the 5 worst defenders in left field(uzr or uzr/150), they are deadly with the bat.

socherball
04-26-2010, 02:25 PM
In 2007, Yost refused to bring up Braun (then a 3b) until late May b/c of his bad defense, which is also horrible in LF. That decision likely cost them the playoffs. My point is that in LF, you ride out the bad glove with the good bat for as deep in the game as you can.

I think this was more a case of the Brewers playing the arbitration game, rather than Braun's defensive liabilities. Same thing the Nationals are doing with Strasburg.

redwhitenblue
04-26-2010, 02:27 PM
I don't know where you're seeing that. In more than 4000 career innings in CF Byrd has a UZR of -13.1 and UZR/150 of -3.9.

But I think he has looked decent out there except for when he gives those ****** weak throws back to the infield because he is rushing the play so badly.
IIRC, a huge bulk of that - number is from one year ('05?). Other than that, he's been right around average.



As for the following Soriano debate, list the LF's. Outside of Carl Crawford and Holliday, there aren't really "good fielding LF's". Still, Soriano's gaffes are overrated. As if he's the only OF that makes mistakes in the majors. He's not a terrible OF.

Jilly Bohnson
04-26-2010, 02:35 PM
Can we agree that discussing him with the worst defenders in LF proves the point that he's not an Above Average or even Average LF?

No. Who, among everyday left fielders is better than him? Crawford is obvious, Holliday probably is, but after him? Dunn? Hell no. Manny? Hell no. Ibanez? No. Damon? Maybe. Carlos Lee? No. Ryan Braun? No way. Any others that would be that I'm forgetting?

windycityD
04-26-2010, 03:10 PM
I think this was more a case of the Brewers playing the arbitration game, rather than Braun's defensive liabilities. Same thing the Nationals are doing with Strasburg.

eh, maybe. They had nothing legitimate going for them going into 2007 and started out hot as hell that year. I still say if they had brought him up, their fortunes may have gone a whole other direction in terms of making the playoffs. Their pitching was still crap, though.

Strasburg is allegedly not coming up until June. We did the same thing with Prior in 2002. With young pitchers, it's about getting innings down below and building up arm strength as much as it may be some arbitrary game to dance around arbitration.

johnlh
04-26-2010, 03:14 PM
I have been as pleased as the next guy with Colvin's performance so far this season. Most people, including myself, had all but written him off as a prospect. However, I read somewhere recently that it wasn't until Colvin got to Tennessee last year that he was entirely recovered from his Tommy John Surgery of the previous year. Supposedly, a lot of his struggles at the plate were related to his bat speed not being completely back post-surgery.

But once he got to Tennesse, supposedly totally healthy,

In 2007, had a very good debut in professional baseball. He hit .299/.324/.488 between A+ and AA. In 125 games, he hit 35 doubles, 5 triples, and 16 home runs, so he showed some serious power potential. He also stole 17 out of 22 bases. The only knock on his game was that he struck out a lot, and barely ever walked. He struck out 101 times while walking only 15 times in 519 plate appearances.

He struggled quite a bit in 2008, playing the entire season in AA, producing a line .256/.312/.424. His power numbers were down, hitting fewer doubles (27) and home runs (14) than in 2007 with more plate appearances. The only real positives of his 2008 season were that his K/BB ratio improved greatly. He walked a much more respectable 44 times in 602 plate appearances.

In 2009, he started out the season back in Daytona, where he struggled mightily, but eventually got called up to Tennessee, where he put up the best stats of his career. He hit .300/.334/.524 with 14 HR, 13 2B, an 7 3B. He knocked in 50 runs and scored 50 more in what was essentially half a season. Double all those stats and you are looking at some pretty good production.

Now, I didn't know what to make of this at first, but I did a little digging and found out that he had Tommy John surgery after the 2008 season. Supposedly his elbow was affecting his bat speed, which hurt his ability to hit for average and power that season. After the surgery, he struggled to start the year in Daytona. I read that his bat speed was still not back to where it should be because he was not fully recovered from his surgery. However, when he was completely healthy, he got called back up to Tennessee, where he put up those monster stats. Then he had a great spring training and made the big league club. What I think this means:

I think it means that Colvin's minor league struggles had a lot to do with his elbow problems that are not gone. I also think those elbow problems may have been a blessing in disguise, because he never walked in 2007, but walked a lot more in 2008 when he was struggling at the plate. It is possible that he learned to be more patient at the plate when hitting racking up the extra base hits was not coming as easily. So maybe the decent plate discipline that we have seen so far this season isn't just a fluke, but rather it's something Colvin "turns on" when he needs it, which he didn't in 2007, or last year when he was crushing the ball in AA, or this spring when he was hitting everything.

All this to say that after doing some research I once again see Colvin as a very legit high end prospect, even though he is already 24 years old. I think that he should get sent down to AAA to get AB's everyday. He can get called up when somebody goes on the DL, but either way he needs to plat every day, and I think he should be ready for a full time job next season as a 25 year old. I really like his upside, which I see around .290/.340/.500. He has the ability to rack up tons of extra base hits and play good defense in the outfield. I think he could be one of the best offensive CF's in the game in a few years.

As of now he is to important to our offense and Lou is getting him some bats.
His swing reminds me of Billy Williams somewhat. He sure looks to me like a keeper and will be on the ML roster for many years to come. He is very calm on the outside at least and has a lot of power in that swing. We have 4 really good outfielders as of now. Any of the three could be in there on any day and we are in good shape. Soriano seems to have come out of a long funk and is even running out hits. Fukadome is doing what we hoped he would do. Great all around player. Our new center fielder is better than I thought he would be and looks like a leader. It is great to have Colvin here. It is likely that one of our OF being out for a while and we want miss a beat. Who would have guessed that Carlos Silva would have totally turned his game around? That could be the trade of the decade for the Cubs. He looks bigger than Big Z and does what it takes to be a great pitcher. Throws strikes and could become a Cub favorite. If only he could hit like Big Z?

redwhitenblue
04-26-2010, 04:30 PM
No. Who, among everyday left fielders is better than him? Crawford is obvious, Holliday probably is, but after him? Dunn? Hell no. Manny? Hell no. Ibanez? No. Damon? Maybe. Carlos Lee? No. Ryan Braun? No way. Any others that would be that I'm forgetting?
Carlos Quentin:laugh2:

Captain Obvious
04-26-2010, 04:54 PM
Can we agree that discussing him with the worst defenders in LF proves the point that he's not an Above Average or even Average LF?

Of the 18 LFer's in the league that had 700 innings played in LF, Soriano ranked 8th in terms of UZR and UZR/150. That's a little above average. He also had the 5th best range. This is for 2009.

In 2008, there were 16 LFer's that had 700 innings. Soriano was 2nd in UZR and 1st in UZR/150. He also had the 2nd best arm and 2nd best range.

In 2007, Soriano by far had the best UZR, UZR/150, range, and arm.

And he sucks, right? :nod:

Diehdcubsfan2
04-26-2010, 05:00 PM
On a related note and actually about Colvin. I think hes signing autographs like 10 minutes away from where I live. I live in Lake Zurich, IL and I think hes signing at a church event in Mundelein on midlothian rd. I have no idea when.

Milnertime
04-26-2010, 05:10 PM
Of the 18 LFer's in the league that had 700 innings played in LF, Soriano ranked 8th in terms of UZR and UZR/150. That's a little above average. He also had the 5th best range. This is for 2009.

In 2008, there were 16 LFer's that had 700 innings. Soriano was 2nd in UZR and 1st in UZR/150. He also had the 2nd best arm and 2nd best range.

In 2007, Soriano by far had the best UZR, UZR/150, range, and arm.

And he sucks, right? :nod:
Soriano's real problem is that his hands are garbage.

He may as well carry a cement block out there to catch the ball, because his glove is hardly helping him.

He looks like he's slow, but he's not. He takes bad routes, but makes up for it a lot of times with his sneaky speed.

Captain Obvious
04-26-2010, 05:17 PM
Soriano's real problem is that his hands are garbage.

He may as well carry a cement block out there to catch the ball, because his glove is hardly helping him.

He looks like he's slow, but he's not. He takes bad routes, but makes up for it a lot of times with his sneaky speed.

Like a few people have said before, it is just the boneheaded mistakes that stand out.

Also, what is the deal with FG? They changed the UZR numbers and WAR. The WAR could be on account of the UZR though. But still... what's up with that?

Doogolas
04-26-2010, 05:37 PM
I don't know where you're seeing that. In more than 4000 career innings in CF Byrd has a UZR of -13.1 and UZR/150 of -3.9.

But I think he has looked decent out there except for when he gives those ****** weak throws back to the infield because he is rushing the play so badly.

That's mostly predicated on a bad early career. Look at recent years. He's been pretty damn good out there. He had a bad year last year... but other than that he's been a pretty damn good CF.

Diehardcub
04-26-2010, 05:46 PM
I've been impressed with Colvin, he's been much better than I thought he would and his power has really surprised me. Even in a small sample size. But it's just that, a small sample size. Some people need to calm down. 33 at bats tells you nothing. One thing I'd like to see is him actually hit a ball anywhere but right field. He appears to be a dead pull hitter.

Str1fe5
04-26-2010, 05:55 PM
Colvin by himself wont land a premier right handed set up guy/ closer, especially this early. You're still talking about a better than decent arm going bye bye as well (ex Parker).

For the first time since June 2008, we have an outfield that is working and all producing 1-4. I say we leave that alone.

Well, by DRS you are right, but by UZR he's been pretty up and down his whole career.

Year: UZR/UZR150

2009: -10/-15
2008: 3.2/8.4
2007: -4.4/-14
2006: 2.9/8.9
2005: -1.1/-4.6
2004: -9.6/-18.3
2003: 5.1/6.7
2002: -.2/-7.5

there's really not much rhyme or reason to it. Taken in the aggregate, I'd say he's below average to average, not above average to good. At least based on UZR. *shrug*

As far as Soriano in LF goes, its funny that people go round and round about this. There are maybe 2-3 everyday LF that are better in LF than Soriano. There are maybe 4 or 5 guys that are worse than Soriano in LF, and then a bunch of guys that, taken in the aggregate, are probably about on par with him. That makes him somewhere in the average to above average LF area.

In no way shape or form is he anywhere near as bad in the OF as Braun or Dunn or Ibanez in the latter part of his career. Neither the numbers nor my own subjective experience indicate that he is on par with those guys. Soriano makes a really inexcusably dumb mistake about once per week at most. Every 6 or 7 games. Dunn and Braun do that *at least* once per series, sometimes more. And that's not even considering actual you know, range in the field.

That said, Colvin is a much better LF than Soriano is, and so while he's on the roster I have no problem using him as a late inning replacement. When I say that I have no problem using Colvin in a deal for Bell, I meant as a piece that is more than just a throw in - of course the padres are going to want more than a 4th OF / fringe everyday starter for their closer. But at this point, the presence of Colvin in a deal probably lessens the necessary value for whatever other pieces are included in the deal on the Cubs' end.

redwhitenblue
04-26-2010, 06:00 PM
Good post Str1fe5. One thing that has caught my eye though is that Colvin's arm is not that strong.

semperfi
04-26-2010, 07:06 PM
Of the 18 LFer's in the league that had 700 innings played in LF, Soriano ranked 8th in terms of UZR and UZR/150. That's a little above average. He also had the 5th best range. This is for 2009.

In 2008, there were 16 LFer's that had 700 innings. Soriano was 2nd in UZR and 1st in UZR/150. He also had the 2nd best arm and 2nd best range.

In 2007, Soriano by far had the best UZR, UZR/150, range, and arm.

And he sucks, right? :nod:

And by far Soriano is still the same player as he was in 2007 and 2008. :rolleyes:

He was also last in Errors last year and leading the league this year already. He was also second worst RZR. And he was 2nd worst, as far as his arm went. But that's if you want to get technical about it.

semperfi
04-26-2010, 07:20 PM
No. Who, among everyday left fielders is better than him? Crawford is obvious, Holliday probably is, but after him? Dunn? Hell no. Manny? Hell no. Ibanez? No. Damon? Maybe. Carlos Lee? No. Ryan Braun? No way. Any others that would be that I'm forgetting?

Really there's only about 13 teams have a everyday starter. It would be unfair to compare him to only those 13 players. Which he is 7th out of 13th. If you drop the qualifying innings to 400 innings, Soriano is below average. That encompasses 37 players. Which is more accurate than throwing 13 guys when there are over double the teams fielding a LF out there. Either way he is below average or just below average. Which is still not one of the above average LFs that you say he is. You can twist the innings how ever you want, it isn't going to change anything.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=lf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2009&month=0

Ibanez, Bay, Holliday, Rivera, DeJesus, and Crawford were all better than him for qualified players.

Str1fe5
04-26-2010, 10:01 PM
And by far Soriano is still the same player as he was in 2007 and 2008. :rolleyes:


Alfonso Soriano from 2007-2008: .291/.340/.548
Alfonso Soriano going into tonight: .300/.338/.533


Really there's only about 13 teams have a everyday starter. It would be unfair to compare him to only those 13 players. Which he is 7th out of 13th. If you drop the qualifying innings to 400 innings, Soriano is below average. That encompasses 37 players. Which is more accurate than throwing 13 guys when there are over double the teams fielding a LF out there. Either way he is below average or just below average. Which is still not one of the above average LFs that you say he is. You can twist the innings how ever you want, it isn't going to change anything.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=lf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2009&month=0

Ibanez, Bay, Holliday, Rivera, DeJesus, and Crawford were all better than him for qualified players.

You just twisted the innings in your favor to make your own damn point. You know what's average UZR in LF? 0. You know who is above average? Anyone with a positive UZR in LF. Soriano has a positive UZR (and +/-) for his career, and therefore he is an above average LF. This is further supported by the fact that he has had a positive UZR every year he's played LF but last year, in which he was running around on one leg. If he goes through this year in the negative, then we can say he's changed. But the first 3 weeks of the season mean nothing with UZR, one way or the other.

semperfi
04-26-2010, 10:05 PM
Alfonso Soriano from 2007-2008: .291/.340/.548
Alfonso Soriano going into tonight: .300/.338/.533



You just twisted the innings in your favor to make your own damn point. You know what's average UZR in LF? 0. You know who is above average? Anyone with a positive UZR in LF. Soriano has a positive UZR (and +/-) for his career, and therefore he is an above average LF. This is further supported by the fact that he has had a positive UZR every year he's played LF but last year, in which he was running around on one leg. If he goes through this year in the negative, then we can say he's changed. But the first 3 weeks of the season mean nothing with UZR, one way or the other.

First, I never said anything about his offense. This was strictly defense conversation. And yes I did twist them to prove my point, because I was going off only qualified at first, which he was below average. Then he wanted to lower innings which he didn't lower enough if he wanted to bring platoon guys in. And because someone is positive for their career doesn't mean they can still defend. Even then when he twisted him "his way" he was barely average.

Doogolas
04-26-2010, 10:37 PM
First, I never said anything about his offense. This was strictly defense conversation. And yes I did twist them to prove my point, because I was going off only qualified at first, which he was below average. Then he wanted to lower innings which he didn't lower enough if he wanted to bring platoon guys in. And because someone is positive for their career doesn't mean they can still defend. Even then when he twisted him "his way" he was barely average.

I dunno if you know anything about math. But 7/13 is over 50% which is... well, in terms of baseball above average. When you're in the top 50% at your position you're a good baseball player.

semperfi
04-27-2010, 07:22 AM
I dunno if you know anything about math. But 7/13 is over 50% which is... well, in terms of baseball above average. When you're in the top 50% at your position you're a good baseball player.

I don't know if you know anything about rankings,

1
2
3
4
5
6
7 - middle Right where Alfonso Soriano ranked in the middle, not above 50% he's right at 50%
8
9
10
11
12
13

Which is the best way you can twist Soriano's stats. Every other way he is below average. You can't show me any relative stat that has him ABOVE AVERAGE Dooglas, you've been trying for weeks, I haven't seen one stat that isn't 2-3 years old that show's he can play a lick of defense. He may have once been a good defender, he is not anymore.

redwhitenblue
04-27-2010, 07:46 AM
Which is the best way you can twist Soriano's stats. Every other way he is below average. You can't show me any relative stat that has him ABOVE AVERAGE Dooglas, you've been trying for weeks, I haven't seen one stat that isn't 2-3 years old that show's he can play a lick of defense. He may have once been a good defender, he is not anymore.
By this, you're showing that the only stats that matter to you are his injured 2009 and the small sample from this year.

Sorry, that's simply not very solid logic. You need 2-3 year averages to support most stats. Taking an injured year and 20 games is very, very faulty.

You cannot prove anything, you are 'twisting' stats just as much as anyone by refusing to acknowledge anything before he was injured.



Hell, other than the ball misplayed off the wall, his defense this year really hasn't been bad. He "fumbled" a ball in the OF that they attribute an extra base too, but that really isn't worth noting, and his only drop that I can recall was a sinking liner.

He has as many drops as Fukudome and Byrd. His routes aren't great but his speed (whether you choose to acknowledge it or not) saves him a lot.

Doogolas
04-27-2010, 08:28 AM
I don't know if you know anything about rankings,

1
2
3
4
5
6
7 - middle Right where Alfonso Soriano ranked in the middle, not above 50% he's right at 50%
8
9
10
11
12
13

Which is the best way you can twist Soriano's stats. Every other way he is below average. You can't show me any relative stat that has him ABOVE AVERAGE Dooglas, you've been trying for weeks, I haven't seen one stat that isn't 2-3 years old that show's he can play a lick of defense. He may have once been a good defender, he is not anymore.

So you're telling me that the only year that matters is the one where he was hurt in sucked at absolutely everything? Then you're right. I can't show you he's a good player. And he clearly sucks at hitting too. In fact, based on what you're giving me to work with, he's awful at everything.

And he has three errors this year RWB. But he hasn't made one in quite a while either.

semperfi
04-27-2010, 09:22 AM
So you're telling me that the only year that matters is the one where he was hurt in sucked at absolutely everything? Then you're right. I can't show you he's a good player. And he clearly sucks at hitting too. In fact, based on what you're giving me to work with, he's awful at everything.

And he has three errors this year RWB. But he hasn't made one in quite a while either.

He has also played about 30 innings less than most LFs. His Plays on BIZ is .708. You know how bad that is? That's freaking terrible. But keep telling yourself Soriano is an above average outfielder. I'll keep laughing..

:laugh:

Doogolas
04-27-2010, 09:42 AM
He has also played about 30 innings less than most LFs. His Plays on BIZ is .708. You know how bad that is? That's freaking terrible. But keep telling yourself Soriano is an above average outfielder. I'll keep laughing..

:laugh:

Where in the **** do you get that number? Seriously, that number doesn't even exist. I am on fangrahs right now. There is a BIZ but it's an actual number, the only number under advanced fielding stats with a God damn decimal is RZR. And honestly, you're using this year's numbers? Is that a joke? Because those there errors by themselves completely **** him. Try looking at his career, even last year he was at .820 and for his career in LF he's .864. So shut your mouth and try using a sample that matters.

Hell, if you want to know just how ******** it is to use a sample size from this year just look at the fact that Nyjer Morgan and Fukudome are both ******** fielders at their position than Soriano is at his.

So yeah. Hell, consider that you're talking 17/24 right now. In one game if he made 5 catches that goes to 22/29 which is .779. And hell, in the course of a week if he just doesn't drop ****. I'm betting he's up to something like 30/37 which is .81. And by the end of the year I'm betting he's somewhere right near .850. Because that's how **** works. Bad weeks **** people over early just like great ones can carry them.

semperfi
04-27-2010, 11:53 AM
Where in the **** do you get that number? Seriously, that number doesn't even exist. I am on fangrahs right now. There is a BIZ but it's an actual number, the only number under advanced fielding stats with a God damn decimal is RZR. And honestly, you're using this year's numbers? Is that a joke? Because those there errors by themselves completely **** him. Try looking at his career, even last year he was at .820 and for his career in LF he's .864. So shut your mouth and try using a sample that matters.

Hell, if you want to know just how ******** it is to use a sample size from this year just look at the fact that Nyjer Morgan and Fukudome are both ******** fielders at their position than Soriano is at his.

So yeah. Hell, consider that you're talking 17/24 right now. In one game if he made 5 catches that goes to 22/29 which is .779. And hell, in the course of a week if he just doesn't drop ****. I'm betting he's up to something like 30/37 which is .81. And by the end of the year I'm betting he's somewhere right near .850. Because that's how **** works. Bad weeks **** people over early just like great ones can carry them.


I thought you would have been smart enough to know that RZR is Plays/BIZ. But apparently you don't have a firm understanding of defensive statistics. It's hilarious that you tell me to shut the hell up when you open your mouth and ******** spews out of it.

And since we take Soriano out of the game in late innings and put Colvin in, Colvin must be an elite defensive LF. Because if Soriano is above average, Colvin must be elite. That's what you're implying.

And you want to compare RF defense to LF defense, and then you want to play the if game. Wow you really are a piece of work. Don't even bother responding because its worthless to have a conversation with you.

Ron!n
04-27-2010, 12:31 PM
I thought you would have been smart enough to know that RZR is Plays/BIZ. But apparently you don't have a firm understanding of defensive statistics. It's hilarious that you tell me to shut the hell up when you open your mouth and ******** spews out of it.

And since we take Soriano out of the game in late innings and put Colvin in, Colvin must be an elite defensive LF. Because if Soriano is above average, Colvin must be elite. That's what you're implying.

And you want to compare RF defense to LF defense, and then you want to play the if game. Wow you really are a piece of work. Don't even bother responding because its worthless to have a conversation with you.
He didnt compare the two. He said that its too early for the numbers to actually mean anything. Evidenced by Morgan and Fukudome, two notoriously great fielders, who according to the numbers so far this year are horrible in the field.

WOwolfOL
04-27-2010, 02:40 PM
Kid is beasting ridiculous right now

Doogolas
04-27-2010, 02:49 PM
I thought you would have been smart enough to know that RZR is Plays/BIZ. But apparently you don't have a firm understanding of defensive statistics. It's hilarious that you tell me to shut the hell up when you open your mouth and ******** spews out of it.

And since we take Soriano out of the game in late innings and put Colvin in, Colvin must be an elite defensive LF. Because if Soriano is above average, Colvin must be elite. That's what you're implying.

And you want to compare RF defense to LF defense, and then you want to play the if game. Wow you really are a piece of work. Don't even bother responding because its worthless to have a conversation with you.

You could do yourself a favor and actually CALL IT WHAT IT IS. And not just make up your own ****ing name for it. I very much figured it out. But you still just made up your own ******** name for it. You didn't say RZR you said his plays on BIZ is _____ which is just dumb as hell and not a thing.

I didn't spew ANY ******** out of it. I'm not implying that, I'm trying to say that Soriano is a very underrated defender. He LOOKS bad on defense. Given that the Cubs DON'T USE ****ING DEFENSIVE METRICS or really ANY advanced metric at all in their decision making, they see something ugly and replace it. Soriano looks bad so Lou replaces him with Colvin. Colvin is a GOOD LF, he's probably a bit better than Soriano. But if his minor league numbers are any indication he's not going to be that much better.

Jesus Christ in Heaven. You're seriously bringing up the decisions made by a guy who pinch hit our best hitter with arguably our worst. That is not a way to judge anything. All I'm saying about Soriano is that FOR A LEFT FIELDER he is perfectly fine at doing his part in the field. When the sample size is large enough you will be able to see so for yourself. How is that not clear?

hoggin88
04-27-2010, 03:08 PM
You could do yourself a favor and actually CALL IT WHAT IT IS. And not just make up your own ****ing name for it. I very much figured it out. But you still just made up your own ******** name for it. You didn't say RZR you said his plays on BIZ is _____ which is just dumb as hell and not a thing.

I didn't spew ANY ******** out of it. I'm not implying that, I'm trying to say that Soriano is a very underrated defender. He LOOKS bad on defense. Given that the Cubs DON'T USE ****ING DEFENSIVE METRICS or really ANY advanced metric at all in their decision making, they see something ugly and replace it. Soriano looks bad so Lou replaces him with Colvin. Colvin is a GOOD LF, he's probably a bit better than Soriano. But if his minor league numbers are any indication he's not going to be that much better.

Jesus Christ in Heaven. You're seriously bringing up the decisions made by a guy who pinch hit our best hitter with arguably our worst. That is not a way to judge anything. All I'm saying about Soriano is that FOR A LEFT FIELDER he is perfectly fine at doing his part in the field. When the sample size is large enough you will be able to see so for yourself. How is that not clear?

It worked for Danny Glover. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yb-cZyrwpjQ&feature=related#t=03m00s) :shrug:

Doogolas
04-27-2010, 03:10 PM
It worked for Danny Glover. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yb-cZyrwpjQ&feature=related#t=03m00s) :shrug:

Did Hill have a bear? :( I don't think those are as helpful as Angels anyways though... :cry:

redwhitenblue
04-27-2010, 04:55 PM
So you're telling me that the only year that matters is the one where he was hurt in sucked at absolutely everything? Then you're right. I can't show you he's a good player. And he clearly sucks at hitting too. In fact, based on what you're giving me to work with, he's awful at everything.

And he has three errors this year RWB. But he hasn't made one in quite a while either.
Yeah, he got an error from the one "fumble." One from that drop, I can't remember the other (it might've been on the bounce off the wall.)

Captain Obvious
04-27-2010, 05:09 PM
I don't think that BIZ and RZR tell us enough. They are telling us the number of balls that have been hit into the zone. But they don't tell us how they are hit(fly ball, line drive, grounder). Now, we do have the fly ball, line drive, and grounder percentages, but it doesn't tell us to what field. I mean, of the 25 balls hit in his zone, how many were line drives?

The point I am trying to make here is that we don't know the specifics of the balls hit in Soriano's zone.

Another thing, is that we have to give him some slack, because of his fear of the wall. He isn't going to risk getting hurt, which means he will probably not get a lot of the balls close to the wall. But, he will make up for it with his bat.

Diehardcub
04-27-2010, 05:58 PM
I don't think that BIZ and RZR tell us enough. They are telling us the number of balls that have been hit into the zone. But they don't tell us how they are hit(fly ball, line drive, grounder). Now, we do have the fly ball, line drive, and grounder percentages, but it doesn't tell us to what field. I mean, of the 25 balls hit in his zone, how many were line drives?

The point I am trying to make here is that we don't know the specifics of the balls hit in Soriano's zone.

Another thing, is that we have to give him some slack, because of his fear of the wall. He isn't going to risk getting hurt, which means he will probably not get a lot of the balls close to the wall. But, he will make up for it with his bat.

I'm glad somebody made this point. Defensive statistics aren't nearly as reliable as offensive statistics. There's just to many what if's. I'm a big stats guy, but defensive stats just don't tell you enough.

Doogolas
04-27-2010, 06:09 PM
I don't think that BIZ and RZR tell us enough. They are telling us the number of balls that have been hit into the zone. But they don't tell us how they are hit(fly ball, line drive, grounder). Now, we do have the fly ball, line drive, and grounder percentages, but it doesn't tell us to what field. I mean, of the 25 balls hit in his zone, how many were line drives?

The point I am trying to make here is that we don't know the specifics of the balls hit in Soriano's zone.

Another thing, is that we have to give him some slack, because of his fear of the wall. He isn't going to risk getting hurt, which means he will probably not get a lot of the balls close to the wall. But, he will make up for it with his bat.

It is referring to plays where he can get the ball to make an out. That is flyballs only.

Captain Obvious
04-27-2010, 06:19 PM
It is referring to plays where he can get the ball to make an out. That is flyballs only.

Do you have a link? I am just curious to see, because I am thinking that some LD's would count.

semperfi
04-27-2010, 06:22 PM
It is referring to plays where he can get the ball to make an out. That is flyballs only.

Does this include fly balls where he doesn't even have to move?

Doogolas
04-27-2010, 06:25 PM
Do you have a link? I am just curious to see, because I am thinking that some LD's would count.

Only if it lands in his zone. UZR is extremely complex. And no, it's not as accurate as other things. I believe there are, in some way, zones based on the type of hit. I don't use UZR to the letter. I use it as an indicator. Nonetheless, Soriano is a pretty good defender when healthy. So far the only thing really hurting him is his ErrR which is his Error Runs Above Average. He's at -2.0 total and -1.8 of it comes from that. Not shocking given he's made 3. But he hasn't made any in a while, so in all likelihood as long as he catches the ball most of the time the rest of the year he'll probably be about a neutral net defender.

Doogolas
04-27-2010, 06:25 PM
Does this include fly balls where he doesn't even have to move?

Yes. If they are in his zone. Yes. It counts. But that goes for all players.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/uzr-on-fangraphs

Basic explanation of everything that goes into UZR. Right there.

They also have OOZ on fangraphs. Which are plays that the player makes out of his own zone.

semperfi
04-27-2010, 06:27 PM
Yes. If they are in his zone. Yes. It counts. But that goes for all players.

So really, it's pretty much a worthless stat for that reason alone. IMO. That still doesn't make me believe Soriano is an above average defender though.

Doogolas
04-27-2010, 06:30 PM
So really, it's pretty much a worthless stat for that reason alone. IMO. That still doesn't make me believe Soriano is an above average defender though.

Wow. Not at all. Jesus Christ. ALL PLAYERS get the plays right to them counted. ALL of them. It evens out. That's why you need LARGE SAMPLE SIZES. That's like saying that on base percentage is worthless because it counts HBP and IBB.

UZR is the best metric out there. What would you suggest we do? Use our eyes and judge him on the few bad plays he's gonna make all year? Because regardless if you like the way he gets it done. He does get it done. Jim Edmonds may be perfect at running routes to balls but he's slow as dirt now. So it doesn't matter anymore that it looks nice. Because he's still not getting to as many balls as well as Soriano does for his position.

semperfi
04-27-2010, 06:33 PM
Wow. Not at all. Jesus Christ. ALL PLAYERS get the plays right to them counted. ALL of them. It evens out. That's why you need LARGE SAMPLE SIZES. That's like saying that on base percentage is worthless because it counts HBP and IBB.

Not really a good comparison.

It doesn't even out. Theoretically it does, but not officially. It really doesn't say how many were hit directly at him. Because obviously players are going to have different rates and amount of balls hit at him. If it took out balls that were hit were he barely had to move, it'd be a more reasonable stat.

I'd rather go off of what I see out of him.

Doogolas
04-27-2010, 06:37 PM
Not really a good comparison.

It doesn't even out. Theoretically it does, but not officially. It really doesn't say how many were hit directly at him. Because obviously players are going to have different rates and amount of balls hit at him. If it took out balls that were hit were he barely had to move, it'd be a more reasonable stat.

I'd rather go off of what I see out of him.

Then you're going to be wrong. Because you're comparing him to other OF you see randomly. You realize how stupid that is? UZR compares him ONLY to players of his own ****ing position. Which is what he needs to be compared to. Because believe it or not LF is filled with most of the shittiest fielders in baseball. So while Fuku and Byrd will look much better, they play with better competition as well. Soriano plays with **** competition.

Is Soriano a good defensive OF? No. He's not. He's TERRIBLE. But is he a solid defensive LF? **** yeah he is. Because the other people that play the position suck so much ***. Unless you watch every baseball game and every LF like the guys who do UZR. And every single play by all of them. What you see is ******** and extremely bias. Now, given this discussion and the one in the game thread. I'm going to just ignore you again. Because your blatant ******** is getting ridiculous.

thornga2
04-27-2010, 07:44 PM
Soooo.....Tyler Colvin.

Struck out looking twice last night. Pretty strange for him. Can somebody who saw the game tell me either of them were bad calls? Or was he just being the bad version of Kosuke?

Doogolas
04-27-2010, 07:44 PM
I believe one was a bad call. The other was legit.

Captain Obvious
04-27-2010, 07:45 PM
Soooo.....Tyler Colvin.

Struck out looking twice last night. Pretty strange for him. Can somebody who saw the game tell me either of them were bad calls? Or was he just being the bad version of Kosuke?

I didn't see the pitches, but could it be that he is trying too hard to take walks and this is the cause of his K's looking?

Milnertime
04-27-2010, 08:22 PM
Not really a good comparison.

It doesn't even out. Theoretically it does, but not officially. It really doesn't say how many were hit directly at him. Because obviously players are going to have different rates and amount of balls hit at him. If it took out balls that were hit were he barely had to move, it'd be a more reasonable stat.

I'd rather go off of what I see out of him.
I'm not sure you understand how UZR works.

The field is broken down into a bunch of zones, similar to this (http://www.retrosheet.org/location.htm). That chart isn't the exact one they use, since some of those zones don't exist in all parks. They have new adjustments for parks with odd nooks and crannies now, too.

Doogolas might have been confusing you by saying "his zone." Technically, there is no "his zone," there are only zones. Technically, if Soriano made a play in a zone that no other RF did, he would get positive credit for it.

So, a computer keeps track of 3 things: 1) the number of hits in each zone, 2) the average run value of a hit in that zone using linear weights, 3) the number of outs recorded in each zone for each fielding position. The computer keeps track of errors, as well.

For each player, the computer keeps track of the number of hits in each zone while the specific player was on the field and the number of outs recorded by that player in each zone.

So let's use a specific zone in the OF, zone 78. First, you find the out rate of fly balls hit into zone 78. Let's say there were (made up numbers, btw) 1055 hits and 1419 outs recorded, total in that zone. The out rate would be .57. The extra value of an out in that zone is .43. So, if Soriano caught 18 balls in that zone, he's be worth an extra 7.7 caught balls.

Now, let's say there were 79 hits in the zone while Soriano was playing. Since that zone is shared with CF, Soriano can't be responsible for all of those hits. The average LF catches 294 balls out of 1419 in the zone, or 20.7%. Soriano would be responsible for 20.7% of the 79 hits in zone 78, or 16.4 hits.

The extra negative value of a hit allowed is .57. 16.4 times .57 is -9.9. So, you take his positive value for the balls he catches, 7.7, and add it to the value of the hits allowed, -9.9, and Soriano caught 1.7 fewer balls than average in that zone.

Then, there is a calculation to determine the run value of those balls based on the linear weights value of a hit in that zone, which spits out UZR runs for that zone. Then all the zones are added and the player's UZR total can be determined.

So, the fact that Soriano doesn't have to move for some fly balls doesn't matter one bit. It's all about the outs recorded in each zone compared to the rest of the league.