PDA

View Full Version : 40/40



CUBSin08
04-18-2010, 02:37 AM
I was looking through Soriano's past stats recently, and I noticed that he JUST missed another 40 hr/40 sb season in 2002, going 39/41 which is as close as you can get. That would make him the first clean (no steroids) player to get a 40/40 season not only once but twice...pretty amazing and shows how much talent he has

Vandelay16
04-18-2010, 03:03 AM
Talent he HAD....

Brad IBCB
04-18-2010, 03:04 AM
If only he was the same hitter.

Doogolas
04-18-2010, 04:33 AM
You guys really haven't been paying attention to the fact that he's been hitting the ball REALLY well lately? I mean, his average is up to .286 and his OPS is almost .800. Seriously, he's been doing really well. If he can just bring his fielding up to par, well... he COULD possibly earn his money this year.

redwhitenblue
04-18-2010, 06:35 AM
You guys really haven't been paying attention to the fact that he's been hitting the ball REALLY well lately? I mean, his average is up to .286 and his OPS is almost .800. Seriously, he's been doing really well. If he can just bring his fielding up to par, well... he COULD possibly earn his money this year.
And I don't want him trying to steal bases that much anymore. In '06 he only stole at 70%. That's awful. His stealing less at a much higher percentage has been much more beneficial for the Cubs.

semperfi
04-18-2010, 08:34 AM
You guys really haven't been paying attention to the fact that he's been hitting the ball REALLY well lately? I mean, his average is up to .286 and his OPS is almost .800. Seriously, he's been doing really well. If he can just bring his fielding up to par, well... he COULD possibly earn his money this year.

If he hits well this year, I consider that, him earning his money.

Milnertime
04-18-2010, 02:53 PM
And I don't want him trying to steal bases that much anymore. In '06 he only stole at 70%. That's awful. His stealing less at a much higher percentage has been much more beneficial for the Cubs.
70% is actually a bit above breaking even. IIRC, the break even spot is like 68%.

BUD Bleachers
04-18-2010, 03:04 PM
You guys really haven't been paying attention to the fact that he's been hitting the ball REALLY well lately? I mean, his average is up to .286 and his OPS is almost .800. Seriously, he's been doing really well. If he can just bring his fielding up to par, well... he COULD possibly earn his money this year.

I agree with you.

Soriano is not putting top spin on the ball like he's done in the past. He's really seeing it well and driving it rather than looping it over the infield.

I still think he needs a different bat, but that's just me.

Rudy has really helped him out a lot this off-season.

Soriano is a afraid to get hurt. He's gun shy. That's what you're seeing. He just doesn't want to spend another year on the shelf. He's for sure very apprehensive out there in LF.

I've been at the games this week, and I've not seen him look this good physically since he started with us back in 2007.

Yagyu+
04-18-2010, 03:14 PM
I agree with you.

Soriano is not putting top spin on the ball like he's done in the past. He's really seeing it well and driving it rather than looping it over the infield.

I still think he needs a different bat, but that's just me.

Rudy has really helped him out a lot this off-season.

Soriano is a afraid to get hurt. He's gun shy. That's what you're seeing. He just doesn't want to spend another year on the shelf. He's for sure very apprehensive out there in LF.

I've been at the games this week, and I've not seen him look this good physically since he started with us back in 2007.

You've got season tickets, no?

CUBSin08
04-18-2010, 03:18 PM
Soriano has a career 79% sb rate, and about 82% with the cubs so he is an efficient base stealer to whoever said he wasnt

redwhitenblue
04-18-2010, 03:21 PM
Soriano has a career 79% sb rate, and about 82% with the cubs so he is an efficient base stealer to whoever said he wasnt
In 2006 he stole 41 and was caught 17 times

70%



He has been able to steal 40 something bags between 70-75% success rate, which is right around the break even clip. Or he's shown he can swipe 20 or so, being more selective, and stay around an 83-85% mark.

Doogolas
04-18-2010, 03:22 PM
In 2006 he stole 41 and was caught 17 times

70%



He has been able to steal 40 something bags between 70-75% success rate, which is right around the break even clip. Or he's shown he can swipe 20 or so, being more selective, and stay around an 83-85% mark.

The break even mark is between 66 and 68% but the affect on pitchers (and there has been shown to be one) is at about 25+ SB. So him being able to steal at 70 to 75% with nearly 40 of them is still extremely helpful for his team.

redwhitenblue
04-18-2010, 03:25 PM
The break even mark is between 66 and 68% but the affect on pitchers (and there has been shown to be one) is at about 25+ SB. So him being able to steal at 70 to 75% with nearly 40 of them is still extremely helpful for his team.
That mark has moved recently then. When we first discussed it on this board, it was around 72-73%, certainly not below 70. Even if it were, stealing 2-3 percent above that point is not EXTREMELY helpful.

I don't care about the effect a player might have on a pitcher, I care about him NOT making outs on the basepaths. And Soriano is much more useful stealing less bases at a notably higher percentage.

Doogolas
04-18-2010, 03:30 PM
That mark has moved recently then. When we first discussed it on this board, it was around 72-73%, certainly not below 70. Even if it were, stealing 2-3 percent above that point is not EXTREMELY helpful.

I don't care about the effect a player might have on a pitcher, I care about him NOT making outs on the basepaths. And Soriano is much more useful stealing less bases at a notably higher percentage.

Wrong. A SB is worth +.2 on average and a CS is worth about -.41 it's JUST over 67% for break even dude.

redwhitenblue
04-18-2010, 03:33 PM
Wrong. A SB is worth +.2 on average and a CS is worth about -.41 it's JUST over 67% for break even dude.
That's fine and dandy, all I'm saying is those numbers have changed recently then.

I really don't feel like going back to look for it, but it was a long-term discussion point and those weren't the numbers.


And with those numbers, Soriano's 41/17 year was at a total value of 1.23. Which is basically nothing. His year of 19 Sb's and 2 or 3 CS was more valuable.

Doogolas
04-18-2010, 03:43 PM
That's fine and dandy, all I'm saying is those numbers have changed recently then.

I really don't feel like going back to look for it, but it was a long-term discussion point and those weren't the numbers.


And with those numbers, Soriano's 41/17 year was at a total value of 1.23. Which is basically nothing. His year of 19 Sb's and 2 or 3 CS was more valuable.

More valuable in sheer SB but not in what it does to a pitcher. There is a very much noticeable affect on a pitcher's OPSA with a guy who steals 25+ bases. It's something like .030. Which is very, very valuable.

redwhitenblue
04-18-2010, 05:03 PM
More valuable in sheer SB but not in what it does to a pitcher. There is a very much noticeable affect on a pitcher's OPSA with a guy who steals 25+ bases. It's something like .030. Which is very, very valuable.
I'd like to see how they did that study.

Ron!n
04-18-2010, 05:35 PM
I'd like to see how they did that study.
Im pretty sure this is the article we used before.
http://cyrilmorong.com/Havoc.htm

Nevermind its not the one i had in mind.

Doogolas
04-18-2010, 05:51 PM
Im pretty sure this is the article we used before.
http://cyrilmorong.com/Havoc.htm

Nevermind its not the one i had in mind.

That's not the right one.

redwhitenblue
04-18-2010, 06:05 PM
http://www.prosportsdaily.com/forums/showthread.php?t=302867&highlight=Stolen+Bases


Kirel explains it best towards the end, but the concensus on all is that it's over 67%

Doogolas
04-18-2010, 06:31 PM
Kirel is still wrong. 67% is the break even point dude. He and I have gone back and forth on this for well over an hour on AIM before. I mean, technically it depends on which number you use. I use .2 and -.41, so it's right about 67%.

Jilly Bohnson
04-18-2010, 06:46 PM
Kirel is still wrong. 67% is the break even point dude. He and I have gone back and forth on this for well over an hour on AIM before. I mean, technically it depends on which number you use. I use .2 and -.41, so it's right about 67%.

Unless you run a regression yourself you can't really call anyone wrong, it's just a matter of which source you happen to side with.

4cubs
04-18-2010, 07:06 PM
I was looking through Soriano's past stats recently, and I noticed that he JUST missed another 40 hr/40 sb season in 2002, going 39/41 which is as close as you can get. That would make him the first clean (no steroids) player to get a 40/40 season not only once but twice...pretty amazing and shows how much talent he hasNot getting caught is not the same as innocent.

I'm not saying he took steroids, but how are we positive he didn't. It seems new names are popping up all the time.

For that matter, can we even be sure how old he is?