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View Full Version : What is the most likely 1st round upset?



DenButsu
04-16-2010, 09:38 PM
What is the most likely 1st round upset?

td0tsfinest
04-16-2010, 09:49 PM
is Jazz over Nuggets really consider an upset?


I say Spurs over Mavs.

Tymer
04-16-2010, 09:53 PM
Heat over Celts or Spurs over Mavs

PC
04-16-2010, 10:02 PM
Heat over the Celtics

JordansBulls
04-16-2010, 10:03 PM
Bulls over Cavs. Series was 2-2 and the Bulls are 5-0 all time against the Cavs in the playoffs.:)

Also we have the guy that defends Lebron the best in the league.

JWO35
04-16-2010, 10:06 PM
Spurs over Mavs

Raidaz4Life
04-16-2010, 10:08 PM
Bulls baby

Chronz
04-16-2010, 10:18 PM
how have u determined which team should be favored?

Toenail Clipper
04-16-2010, 10:21 PM
how have u determined which team should be favored?

Worse record vs Better record.
Not rocket science.

BlondeBomber41
04-16-2010, 10:27 PM
Off the list its easily Jazz over Nuggets.... if thats considered a upset.

When the Mavs cruise past the Spurs you people will be singing a different tune.

blastmasta26
04-16-2010, 10:29 PM
Heat over Celtics.

Raps08-09 Champ
04-16-2010, 10:33 PM
I don't think that you can say that Nuggets v Jazz can be an upset because they are only separated by 1 game.

Raps08-09 Champ
04-16-2010, 10:33 PM
Off the list its easily Jazz over Nuggets.... if thats considered a upset.

When the Mavs cruise past the Spurs you people will be singing a different tune.

What if the Spurs win?

BlondeBomber41
04-16-2010, 10:35 PM
What if the Spurs win?

They wont. The Mavs own the Spurs. The Spurs havent given the Mavs much trouble since 2006 when they went 7 games, and the Mavs won then also.

I'd be willing to bet anyone anything they wish that the Mavs win.

ldc62
04-16-2010, 10:38 PM
Bulls over Cavs. Series was 2-2 and the Bulls are 5-0 all time against the Cavs in the playoffs.:)

Also we have the guy that defends Lebron the best in the league.

Please show me a clip of Luol Deng guarding Lebron... IMO When the Rockets had Ron and Battier, they were the best at shutting Lebron down.

PS: I guess it will be 5-1 after this playoff.

JordansBulls
04-16-2010, 10:42 PM
how have u determined which team should be favored?


Worse record vs Better record.
Not rocket science.

:nod:

Basically the team who has HCA is the favored period. And if two top seeds go at it in the finals than they both are favored.

WadeBirdman
04-16-2010, 10:42 PM
HEAT over Celts

Raps08-09 Champ
04-16-2010, 10:45 PM
They wont. The Mavs own the Spurs. The Spurs havent given the Mavs much trouble since 2006 when they went 7 games, and the Mavs won then also.

I'd be willing to bet anyone anything they wish that the Mavs win.

Lol.

If the Spurs win, how about you never use PSD again?

JiffyMix88
04-16-2010, 10:49 PM
funny how i made a thread exactly like this and got no responses and moved to the 2010 playoff thread....

Raps08-09 Champ
04-16-2010, 10:51 PM
funny how i made a thread exactly like this and got no responses and moved to the 2010 playoff thread....

Cuz no one likes you.

Naw. Just joking.

Shall I massage your nuts?

AirCanada15ORL
04-16-2010, 10:53 PM
Bulls bandwaggon for me.

and Spurs could upset anyone cocky Mavs fans..Just the fact that they have been great since break, have experience, and underacheieved big time this season. They are much better then their record.
The big reason why the Mavs will win this series is homecourt advantage.

JiffyMix88
04-16-2010, 10:56 PM
Cuz no one likes you.

Naw. Just joking.

Shall I massage your nuts?

lmao ur still trying to massage bulls fans nuts i see:laugh:....but it might be that reason though:(

DenButsu
04-16-2010, 11:13 PM
how have u determined which team should be favored?

Strictly by playoff seeding. I know, it's arbitrary to an extent, but it was just the easiest way to do it.

Stunner
04-16-2010, 11:18 PM
cuz no one likes you.

Naw. Just joking.

Shall i massage your nuts?

lmao lost the bet lol

effen5
04-16-2010, 11:31 PM
Bulls over Cavs. Series was 2-2 and the Bulls are 5-0 all time against the Cavs in the playoffs.:)

Also we have the guy that defends Lebron the best in the league.

That has ZERO impact on this series...Thats like saying Bulls has never won a game against the Celtics in the playoffs but guess what, we broke that streak last year...if anything the Cavs break that streak this year.

clutchski
04-16-2010, 11:37 PM
I think the most likely one isn't the Bulls over the Cavs. Much more likely to see the Spurs beat the Mavs or the Jazz over the Nuggets.

dtmagnet
04-16-2010, 11:37 PM
Don't sleep on the Thunder.

Mavrix
04-17-2010, 12:08 AM
What is the most likely 1st round upset?

Jazz over Nuggets isn't an upset, but it's the most likely to happen.

still1ballin
04-17-2010, 01:18 AM
Heat/Celtics

heathonater
04-17-2010, 01:27 AM
the most likely upset is boston and miami. i think miami has a good shot at winning that series due to wade's talent and the severe decline the celtics have shown this year. i dont think the celtics are that good anymore, and they have had their better days behind them.

Chronz
04-17-2010, 01:54 AM
Worse record vs Better record.
Not rocket science.

Thats a pretty shoddy way of going about it, like you said its not rocket science, heck its barely grade school math, shouldnt we invest alil more effort into determining who should be favored?

Chronz
04-17-2010, 01:57 AM
:nod:

Basically the team who has HCA is the favored period. And if two top seeds go at it in the finals than they both are favored.
What if the better team wins without HCA? How is it an upset?

How can 2 teams be favored? Your getting less and less logical come playoff time, even your reasoning for why Chicago would beat the Cavs was nutty.

AirCanada15ORL
04-17-2010, 01:57 AM
No? that's how you determined who's favored to win each series. Who has the higher seed.
Some lower seeds may be better then the higher seed but it's still considered an upset if the lower seed beats the higher seed.

still1ballin
04-17-2010, 01:59 AM
I don't think there can be upsets this time around where only .5, 1, 2, 3 games seperate 2-8 seedings. Its just that close. Any team can win.

Mavrix
04-17-2010, 02:12 AM
I don't think there can be upsets this time around where only .5, 1, 2, 3 games seperate 2-8 seedings. Its just that close. Any team can win.

Dallas is 5 games ahead of San Antonio.

Chronz
04-17-2010, 02:28 AM
Dallas is 5 games ahead of San Antonio.
Yea but thats due entirely to the fact that Dirk has been insanely clutch. The Spurs had the higher offensive+defensive efficiency marks. We'll see which one wins out but history says the team with the higher expected winning% wins more often than the team that won more regular season games.

In a year filled with parity its a tossup either way, so its not like one should be heavily favored one way or another. That 5 games isnt significant at all given the turmoil both clubs have endured this year.

The X Factors in all this are Caron Butler and TP, neither has produced much compared to their career rates, whoever finds their niche will give their team a different element not relied on all year. Im putting my money on the former Finals MVP

Mavrix
04-17-2010, 02:42 AM
Yea but thats due entirely to the fact that Dirk has been insanely clutch. The Spurs had the higher offensive+defensive efficiency marks. We'll see which one wins out but history says the team with the higher expected winning% wins more often than the team that won more regular season games.

In a year filled with parity its a tossup either way, so its not like one should be heavily favored one way or another. That 5 games isnt significant at all given the turmoil both clubs have endured this year.

The X Factors in all this are Caron Butler and TP, neither has produced much compared to their career rates, whoever finds their niche will give their team a different element not relied on all year. Im putting my money on the former Finals MVP

I wish you would bet me. I can't wait to see what you come up with once the Mavs prevail in 5 or 6.

Chronz
04-17-2010, 02:45 AM
I wish you would bet me. I can't wait to see what you come up with once the Mavs prevail in 5 or 6.
Your a Mavs fan of course you think its going to be easy, but consider this, there have been six series in the past decade where the lower-seeded team has been at least a point per game better in terms of differential. Four of those six series have ended in so called upset when in reality we shouldve seen it coming.

Every one of those series Ive had to deal with someone like you, I may be wrong but I know better than to suggest its going to be easy, which is what Im assuming your saying by winning in 5. Make no mistake neither team should be heavily favored, but if you had to pick one, it would be the Spurs.

I told you how to partake in the bet, you have until tonight to accept my offer.

aNYer
04-17-2010, 03:27 AM
Off the list its easily Jazz over Nuggets.... if thats considered a upset.

When the Mavs cruise past the Spurs you people will be singing a different tune.

On the Knicks forum I picked them as a team that could win it all. I wasn't the only one, but the spurs are still the spurs and I wouldn't be shocked if they won.

Mavrix
04-17-2010, 03:29 AM
Your a Mavs fan of course you think its going to be easy, but consider this, there have been six series in the past decade where the lower-seeded team has been at least a point per game better in terms of differential. Four of those six series have ended in so called upset when in reality we shouldve seen it coming.

Every one of those series Ive had to deal with someone like you, I may be wrong but I know better than to suggest its going to be easy, which is what Im assuming your saying by winning in 5. Make no mistake neither team should be heavily favored, but if you had to pick one, it would be the Spurs.

I told you how to partake in the bet, you have until tonight to accept my offer.
That stat is flawed in the playoffs. Playoffs = Matchups. You play 4 teams on your way to a championship, not 30.

So let's take a deeper look at the MATCHUP and not "point differential" made up from playing other teams in the regular season.

Nov. 11: Spurs 92, Mavs 83 - Spurs +9
Nov. 18: Mavs 99, Spurs 94 - Mavs +5
Jan. 8: Mavs 112, Spurs 103 - Mavs +9
April 14: Mavs 96, Spurs 89 - Mavs +7

Point Differential:
Mavs- +12
Spurs- -12

If you had to pick one it would be the Mavericks.
Dallas has owned the Spurs since 2006.
Regular season statistics only go so far.

Chronz
04-17-2010, 03:49 AM
That stat is flawed in the playoffs. Playoffs = Matchups. You play 4 teams on your way to a championship, not 30.
You could say the same thing about Win-Loss records (you know the whole point of me bringing it up in the first place), the point still remains PT Differential trumps win-loss records when it comes to correlating to future success. Matchups are pretty important but not as important as quality of the unit. Like do you know how often regular season series prove to be flukish? Look at the Magic vs Lakers for a quick example, Im sure theres more but thats one.


So let's take a deeper look at the MATCHUP and not "point differential" made up from playing other teams in the regular season.

Nov. 11: Spurs 92, Mavs 83 - Spurs +9
Nov. 18: Mavs 99, Spurs 94 - Mavs +5
Jan. 8: Mavs 112, Spurs 103 - Mavs +9
April 14: Mavs 96, Spurs 89 - Mavs +7

Point Differential:
Mavs- +12
Spurs- -12
Thats not looking pretty closely at anything IMO, aside from it being a pretty small sample to work with those games were played so long ago that it could mean nothing now. One thing Ill admit is that theres like a dominant correlation with the team with the higher record also winning the regular season series winning the series. So you do have that in your favor.


If you had to pick one it would be the Mavericks.
Dallas has owned the Spurs since 2006.
What does this even mean? Didnt the Spurs win the title in 07? Did the Mavs own them that year as well?


Regular season statistics only go so far.
Yup, thankfully they go a long way. Besides your looking at regular season stats as well. Mine just happen to be more telling.

heathonater
04-17-2010, 04:31 AM
Your a Mavs fan of course you think its going to be easy, but consider this, there have been six series in the past decade where the lower-seeded team has been at least a point per game better in terms of differential. Four of those six series have ended in so called upset when in reality we shouldve seen it coming.

Every one of those series Ive had to deal with someone like you, I may be wrong but I know better than to suggest its going to be easy, which is what Im assuming your saying by winning in 5. Make no mistake neither team should be heavily favored, but if you had to pick one, it would be the Spurs.

I told you how to partake in the bet, you have until tonight to accept my offer.

good words coming from a smart fan. i think the mavs and spurs series will be very tightly fought.

alencp3
04-17-2010, 04:35 AM
Thunder sweep Lakers

BlondeBomber41
04-17-2010, 04:49 AM
Lol.

If the Spurs win, how about you never use PSD again?

and when the Mavs win you never post again? Sure.

SouljahPhil...
04-17-2010, 05:33 AM
Thunder sweep Lakers

hallelujah..lol:speechless:

emman03
04-17-2010, 05:46 AM
HEAT over CELTICS. not because i'm a HEAT fan but because the Celtics are now declining their game unlike 2 yrs ago now the HEAT found the right chemistry for them and they know what their roles. the HEAT is now rising while Boston is declining perfect timing for HEAT

JAZZ/NUGGETS possible a upset

Raps08-09 Champ
04-17-2010, 11:58 AM
lmao ur still trying to massage bulls fans nuts i see:laugh:....but it might be that reason though:(

Don't worrry.

I'll make you feel better.

Raps08-09 Champ
04-17-2010, 11:58 AM
lmao lost the bet lol

Get in line.

I'll massage you after Jiffy

Raps08-09 Champ
04-17-2010, 12:02 PM
and when the Mavs win you never post again? Sure.

Spurs aren't even my team. I'm not gonna bet on them.

I was just trying to show how cocky you were saying that the Spurs won't win the series.

If you are 100% sure that the Mavs will win, why not take my challenge?

todu82
04-17-2010, 12:10 PM
Spurs over Mavs

goose15
04-17-2010, 12:26 PM
Bobcats over Magic

BlondeBomber41
04-17-2010, 08:52 PM
Spurs aren't even my team. I'm not gonna bet on them.

I was just trying to show how cocky you were saying that the Spurs won't win the series.

If you are 100% sure that the Mavs will win, why not take my challenge?

Why would I take a risk without any reward?

Im quite positive that tomorrow morning a cheetah wont bust through my front door and eat my dog but if someone said "Bet me that if a cheetah busts through your door and eats your dog I get your car" and didnt have anything to offer in return I wouldn't have any reason to take the bet.

Raps08-09 Champ
04-17-2010, 09:07 PM
Why would I take a risk without any reward?

Im quite positive that tomorrow morning a cheetah wont bust through my front door and eat my dog but if someone said "Bet me that if a cheetah busts through your door and eats your dog I get your car" and didnt have anything to offer in return I wouldn't have any reason to take the bet.


How can it be a risk if you practically guaranteed that the Spurs will not win?

Next time, try to actually be reasonable. Instead of guaranteeing "The Spurs will not win", try saying "The Mavs have a greater chance of winning the series between them" or along those lines.

Kottonswabs
04-17-2010, 09:56 PM
I don't think there will be any upsets in the first round.

BlondeBomber41
04-17-2010, 09:59 PM
How can it be a risk if you practically guaranteed that the Spurs will not win?

Next time, try to actually be reasonable. Instead of guaranteeing "The Spurs will not win", try saying "The Mavs have a greater chance of winning the series between them" or along those lines.

I give the Spurs about the same chance that I give me of getting into a car wreck tomorrow. Yes its very possible, but its more than likely not gonna happen.

godolphins
04-17-2010, 10:15 PM
Heat over celtics

JasonJohnHorn
04-17-2010, 10:32 PM
Part of me wanted to say say Charlotte over Orlando, just because they have a great coach on the bench, and some players I really like watching (Gerald Wallace and Stephan Jackson- plus I'd like to see them play the Cavs in the post season), but with Howard's domiance, I just don't see that happening.

So I went with the obvious choice: The Spurs. The Mavs have a great team, and there is no disrespect intended, and considering the Mavs manhandled the Spurs last year in the playoffs, such an upset may not seem likely, but Duncan is still arguably the best player in the game today (I know most wouldnt even put him in the top five, but his impact on the game remains huge even if his stats dont stack up to LBJ and Kobe). They have a great coach, and a great cast (led of course by Ginobili- we'll see if Parker plays this series, and guys like Jefferson, Mason and Mcdysse), and a impressive rookie who works the boards like a maniac (though he does cause too many turnovers and fouls). They have a hole a center, but so do the Mavs, and that makes them the best match-up for the Spurs in the west.

BlondeBomber41
04-17-2010, 10:57 PM
The Mavs have a hole at center? Thats news to me. Brendan Haywood and Erick Dampier are both very good centers. I guess its a "hole" if the player isn't an All Star.

magicdouglas
04-18-2010, 12:07 AM
Heat over celtics

^^^:clap:this! nice sig

jwn0303
04-18-2010, 01:13 AM
I give the Spurs about the same chance that I give me of getting into a car wreck tomorrow. Yes its very possible, but its more than likely not gonna happen.

I don't recommend driving tomorrow dude..

BlondeBomber41
04-18-2010, 02:33 AM
I don't recommend driving tomorrow dude..

Oh I'll be driving to the stadium to watch the Mavs take Game One in person.

Kyben36
04-18-2010, 02:52 AM
I said Thunder-Lakers, because its realy the old vs young, and I think that they young guys could snap a few games on the old vets. but the other games arnt hapening

Bulls cavs- lets be honest, the bulls wont win this
Bobcats magic, they cant stop dwight
Spurs Mavs- would not consider either an upset over one another
Bucks Hawks, Bucks wont have a chance w/o Bogut, but with bogut, would not be considered an upset
Blazers Suns, I just cant see the Blazers pulling this one out, their just toooooooo injured this year
Heat Celtics, the Cs are old, we saw that last year, the heat are a good team, would not be an upset at all.
Jazz Nugets, neither would be an upset.

Jamiecballer
04-18-2010, 09:09 AM
Charlotte over Orlando.

If you can handle playing for Larry Brown the post season shouldn't faze you much. They have a guy who has ice cold nuts (Stephen Jackson) and a great defensive team. They also have lots of bigs they can throw at Howard.

Kakaroach
04-18-2010, 09:37 AM
I still think its Miami or Utah even though they both lost game one. They were very close games.

clutchski
04-18-2010, 09:39 AM
Miami played great yesterday for a lot of the game, they let it go though in the second half. If Boston wins the next game, I think they'll be alright to win the series.

clutchski
04-18-2010, 09:40 AM
I hope Utah beats Denver.

Raps08-09 Champ
04-18-2010, 10:51 AM
I give the Spurs about the same chance that I give me of getting into a car wreck tomorrow. Yes its very possible, but its more than likely not gonna happen.

There you go.

Here's my offer.

Spurs win, you quit PSD.

Mavs win, I suck you till there is no tomorrow.

Seems fair.

Mavrix
04-18-2010, 02:17 PM
There you go.

Here's my offer.

Spurs win, you quit PSD.

Mavs win, you quit PSD

Seems fair.

That seems fair ;)

Raps08-09 Champ
04-18-2010, 02:39 PM
That seems fair ;)

That is fair.

BlondeBomber41
04-18-2010, 02:46 PM
There you go.

Here's my offer.

Spurs win, you quit PSD.

Mavs win, I suck you till there is no tomorrow.

Seems fair.

Deal!

Raps08-09 Champ
04-18-2010, 03:02 PM
Deal!

I'll add a nut massage too.

xBLAMEITON24x
04-18-2010, 03:02 PM
i like the jazz over denver

valade16
04-18-2010, 03:55 PM
I said Thunder-Lakers, because its realy the old vs young, and I think that they young guys could snap a few games on the old vets. but the other games arnt hapening

Bulls cavs- lets be honest, the bulls wont win this
Bobcats magic, they cant stop dwight
Spurs Mavs- would not consider either an upset over one another
Bucks Hawks, Bucks wont have a chance w/o Bogut, but with bogut, would not be considered an upset
Blazers Suns, I just cant see the Blazers pulling this one out, their just toooooooo injured this year
Heat Celtics, the Cs are old, we saw that last year, the heat are a good team, would not be an upset at all.
Jazz Nugets, neither would be an upset.

You seriously think the greatest chance for an upset is the Thunder vs. the Defending Champion Lakers with HCA?:confused:

Thunder have as much chance of winning this series as you have of winning the lottery...twice.