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philab
01-19-2010, 11:57 PM
A statistic I've always believed carries significant weight despite its simplicity . . .
Road Wins minus Home Losses

Here's the ranking:

EAST:

Cle 14
Bos 9
Orl 7
Atl 4
Tor 2
Cha 1
Mia (1)
Mil (2)
Chi (3)
NYK (4)
Det (5)
Was (5)
Ind (6)
Phi (6)
NJN (16)

WEST:

Dal 7
LAL 6
Den 5
Phx 5
Hou 5
SAS 2
Mem 2
Por 2
OKC 2
NOH 2
Utah 1
LAC (4)
Sac (6)
GSW (6)
Min (12)

Of note: Cleveland, Dallas, San Antonio, Memphis, Toronto, Utah, East vs. West.

Any thoughts?

_KB24_
01-20-2010, 12:07 AM
Is this even an actual stat or did you make it up? Never seen it.

ManRam
01-20-2010, 12:09 AM
They were talking about this on TNT last night I believe.

I think it's a really cool stat. Know a lot of NBA stat heads who love it. Good find.

philab
01-20-2010, 12:14 AM
Is this even an actual stat or did you make it up? Never seen it.

I didn't make it up. Even if I had, it's not all that crazy of something to concoct. Basically, it considers home wins and road losses as a sort of "par for the course" while giving credit to road wins and discrediting home losses. As ManRam said, lots of "statheads" love the statistic -- not only is it very simple, but it's also arguably quite indicative.

TheWatcher34
01-20-2010, 12:45 AM
They were talking about this on TNT last night I believe.

I think it's a really cool stat. Know a lot of NBA stat heads who love it. Good find.

yeah...how signifiacant, indeed, really!!! stats....yes.! :clap:

Raph12
01-20-2010, 01:32 AM
yeah...how signifiacant, indeed, really!!! stats....yes.! :clap:

yeah... how signifiacant, indeed, really!!! sarcastic comments....yes.! :clap:

_KB24_
01-20-2010, 01:42 AM
yeah... how signifiacant, indeed, really!!! sarcastic comments....yes.! :clap:

:D That made me laugh. I still don't get the point of the stat, can anyone care to explain the significance. I'm not trying to sound like a dick, just curious.

topdog
01-20-2010, 01:48 AM
What about the disparity in home games vs. roadies though? If you have more Road games at the outset and fewer home games you have more chances to win on the road and fewer to lose at home.

WatWoudJordanDo
01-20-2010, 02:07 AM
:D That made me laugh. I still don't get the point of the stat, can anyone care to explain the significance. I'm not trying to sound like a dick, just curious.

it really just pulls out the expected/norm of the NBA (Home Ws and Road Ls) and puts more weight onto the things that arent as common (Road Ws and Home Ls). its not an end all be all, tho what stat is, but its something else you can look at when evaluating teams. however, as topdog eluded to, this stat can be horribly misleading with a smaller sample and the difference of schedules amongst teams. i like it when looking at teams towards the end of the year. it really shouldnt even be looked at untill at least 2/3 of the season is completed to try and balance out the schedules

tr4shb0t
01-20-2010, 03:14 AM
but it skewed toward teams that played more games on the road.

a team that goes it 1-0 at home and 18-20 on the road dominates this ordering.

at the end of the season when all teams have played 41 road games it may actually mean something

Raph12
01-20-2010, 03:31 AM
but it skewed toward teams that played more games on the road.

a team that goes it 1-0 at home and 18-20 on the road dominates this ordering.

at the end of the season when all teams have played 41 road games it may actually mean something

Lmfao :laugh: I love your sig.

ARMIN12NBA
01-20-2010, 03:36 AM
A better stat for when the season ends and every team has played 41/41.

About its significance: philab, can you find out how the #1 team in this category has fared in the past 10 years?

philab
01-20-2010, 09:16 AM
A better stat for when the season ends and every team has played 41/41.

About its significance: philab, can you find out how the #1 team in this category has fared in the past 10 years?

Haha, probably not. I couldn't even find the stat worked out (up-to-date) for this season -- had to do it myself.

I'm almost positive Cleveland led last year and, as we all know, exited in the ECF. So take it with a grain of salt.

Perhaps it's not quite as indicative come playoff time -- and really, what regular-season stat is, the playoffs are a completely different game. It's value probably lies more in evaluating regular-season play.



All the arguments about bias towards teams with lots of road games seem to fall somewhat short. It's still an indicator of how well a team has done given their schedule. If a team has a lot of road games and is WINNING those games, they deserve more statistical recognition than a similar team that's winning home games. And anyway, a team's overall record halfway through the season is certainly biased as well.

It's just a stat. Like all stats, there's some significance in it, but it is not determinative of anything.

-Kobe24-TJ19-
01-20-2010, 09:31 AM
I don't get it?

What the hell this stat tells me lol?

JasonJohnHorn
01-20-2010, 09:59 AM
I'm curious to see where the champs for the past ten years have ranked on this stat.

Interesting but little know statistically stat, not only does the team that wins the tip off win the game every time, but the team with the most tip-off wins wins the title EVERY SEASON!!!!

philab
01-20-2010, 04:18 PM
I don't get it?

What the hell this stat tells me lol?

It gives you a different measure of each team's strength. Understanding it is no different than understanding, say, how many games above .500 a team is.

rabueed
01-20-2010, 06:05 PM
http://www.boxscorebasketball.com/rwmhl.htm

there's a link that kind of helps explain its significance a little better. Anyways, it's stated on there that this stat is only really helpful when it's all balanced out, as we already assumed.

philab
01-20-2010, 07:53 PM
http://www.boxscorebasketball.com/rwmhl.htm

there's a link that kind of helps explain its significance a little better. Anyways, it's stated on there that this stat is only really helpful when it's all balanced out, as we already assumed.

No, re-read that. It's only helpful when the H/A balance is OFF.

"This ranking has more value in the first 2/3 of the season."

Think about it.

Team 1:
50-32 Overall
25-16 Home
25-16 Away
RW-HL: 9

Team 2:
50-32 Overall
36-5 Home
14-27 Away
RW-HL: 9

The statistic is valuable DURING the season when home and road games are out of proportion. Cleveland, for instance, has played significantly more road games. The Lakers have played significantly more home games.

In fact, if you project overall W/L records after 82 games by using SEPARATE Win %'s for Home and Away, Cleveland sits at 62 wins and the Lakers at 60 wins. This is in spite of the Lakers' two less losses at this point in the season. The RW-HL statistic is shorthand for that calculation.



(Just to be clear, my intention was not to point out that Cleveland is better than the Lakers with either this thread or this post. Those two teams just happen to illustrate the value of the statistic very well considering their respective H/A imbalances.)

rabueed
01-20-2010, 08:03 PM
No, re-read that. It's only helpful when the H/A balance is OFF.

"This ranking has more value in the first 2/3 of the season."

Think about it.

Team 1:
50-32 Overall
25-16 Home
25-16 Away
RW-HL: 9

Team 2:
50-32 Overall
36-5 Home
14-27 Away
RW-HL: 9

The statistic is valuable DURING the season when home and road games are out of proportion. Cleveland, for instance, has played significantly more road games. The Lakers have played significantly more home games.

In fact, if you project overall W/L records after 82 games by using SEPARATE Win %'s for Home and Away, Cleveland sits at 62 wins and the Lakers at 60 wins. This is in spite of the Lakers' two less losses at this point in the season. The RW-HL statistic is shorthand for that calculation.



(Just to be clear, my intention was not to point out that Cleveland is better than the Lakers with either this thread or this post. Those two teams just happen to illustrate the value of the statistic very well considering their respective H/A imbalances.)

yeah, I see what you mean.

But I just don't understand how you can judge the value of a team based on this. :shrug:

cool stat, nonetheless.

philab
01-20-2010, 08:07 PM
yeah, I see what you mean.

But I just don't understand how you can judge the value of a team based on this. :shrug:

cool stat, nonetheless.

By itself? You can't.

You can't judge the value of a team based on overall record alone either.


It is, however, valuable in evaluating a team -- more valuable than overall record during the season, in fact. Since I know most fans, casual or otherwise, have a tendency to look simply at overall record, I thought I'd throw this in for everyone to refer to in the future. It's a great statistic -- simple yet quite significant.