View Full Version : Pat Burrell

12-05-2009, 08:48 PM
I was searching up his numbers at FanGraphs and obviously his 2009 numbers were awful.

What interested me was that his batted ball percentages and plate discipline percentages were similar to his career numbers. Yet his OBP and ISO just dropped.

So my question is, what gives? Why did his OBP and ISO just tumble down?

Twinke Masta
12-06-2009, 03:47 AM
cus he was playing in a stadium named after orange juice

12-06-2009, 08:44 PM
So my question is, what gives? Why did his OBP and ISO just tumble down?

Well, OBP and AVG are tied together. Hits are part of OBP, so the less hits you have, the lower your OBP will be. Burrell had a 12.2% BB rate, which is below his career norm (and worst since '03) but still well above average. But the main reason why his OBP tumbled was because he just wasn't getting hits.

As for his power outage, I really have no idea what happened there. Perhaps he was injured or hiding an injury? I don't know. But I'd expect him to bounce back a little bit this year.

12-07-2009, 11:34 AM
I wonder if switching leagues played any part in it?

12-07-2009, 12:32 PM
I wonder if switching leagues played any part in it?

It's definitely a possibility...and it wouldn't surprise me at all if the switch in leagues caused him to regress more than he naturally would.

I do think, though, that Burrell will bounce back this year.

12-07-2009, 03:04 PM
His biggest issue was that he couldn't hit fastballs. His run value was usually good on fastballs but this year it was a negative. I have no idea why though.

12-18-2009, 03:13 AM

01-14-2010, 09:33 PM
He was a peculiar case in 2009. I thought he was such a brilliant signing for the Rays. Even with the obvious regression there would be from moving from the NL and CBP to the AL East. I suspect hiding an injury as well.

For what they are worth, his 2010 Projections are:

Bill James: (.237/.356/.439)
CHONE: (.223/.338/.395)
Marcel: (.239/.349/.442)
Fans: (.251/.356/.467)

Personally, I feel that "The Fans" and Bill James are optimistic. While CHONE seems overly pessimistic, but generally I find CHONE to be the most accurate and realistic projection.

When i look at those projections, and then look at his lines from 2005-2008 (all SLG's over .500); it just seems wrong. Like he can't drop off that much of a cliff by the league change and he is only 33, not 37. In Tampa he also doesn't have to field...I would not be surprised one bit to see him SLG around .450 with an OBP around .350.

01-17-2010, 02:55 PM
He's just lost it, I guess. He's an NL-type player, and although he was a horrible LF'er he probably hit better when he started out there instead of being an everyday DH. Plus, Citizens Bank Park is VERY friendly to righties.