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Dark Donnie
11-24-2009, 09:52 PM
Tim Lincecum is due a large raise.

Fortunately, baseball has a system in place for the occasion.

It’s called salary arbitration, and Lincecum has been around just long enough to qualify for the first time. Conveniently for him, it arrives just in time to celebrate his second consecutive Cy Young Award. The system has never processed anyone quite like Lincecum, and now the question it might have to consider about his 2010 salary is this: Is 23 million and one dollars a starting point, an ending point or just some wild concept hatched to ratchet up the final number another hundred grand or two?

Baseball shudders. It hates wild concepts.

Soon, San Francisco Giants owner Bill Neukom and his GM, Brian Sabean, will submit what they believe Lincecum should earn for 2010. The agents at Beverly Hills Sports Council, in this case headed by Rick Thurman, will do the same on Lincecum’s behalf.

You may assume the Giants by then will have researched the largest salaries granted to pitchers who were first-time arbitration eligible. Dontrelle Willis(notes), in 2006, received $4.4 million, the most for a starting pitcher. Three years later, Jonathan Papelbon’s(notes) $6.25 million (he settled with the Red Sox before the actual hearing) was the most received by a pitcher of any type who was an arbitration newbie.

That’s as close as the Giants are going to get to measuring Lincecum’s value by the regular standards. People in the business call them “comps.” Which, in this case, possess a minor flaw.

They’re not comparable.

So, they will have to search further for a player such as Lincecum, who got by in 2009 on $650,000. Philadelphia Phillies slugger Ryan Howard(notes) won $10 million in 2008. The same year, Los Angeles Angels closer Francisco Rodriguez(notes) lost his case and walked with $10 million. Outfielder Alfonso Soriano(notes) did the same two years earlier. Howard was first-time eligible and a Super Two – ranking him among the top handful of players with two-plus years of service – as Lincecum is.

Howard had an MVP award. One.

A year later, when he had an MVP and an MVP runner-up, Howard filed for $18 million. So, are we getting closer?

Or should we think about Derek Jeter(notes) in 2001, his third and final arbitration year? He filed for $18.5 million before agreeing to a 10-year, $189-million contract. Was he the best shortstop in the game? The best player in the game?

Big picture, the game has put together consecutive years of $6.5 billion in revenues. A year ago, when the world economy was collapsing, salary arbitration was the place to be. The 111 arbitration eligible baseball players – regardless of service time – averaged raises of nearly triple their previous salaries.

What, your 401(k) didn’t triple?

So, there are the comps. Think Lincecum is bigger than Papelbon, bigger than Howard? But not Jeter? OK, another arbitration term might interest Sabean. It’s “special accomplishment.”

Sounds expensive. It is. Special accomplishment is what got Howard (and his agent, CAA’s Casey Close) to $10 million after two full big league seasons and how he surely would have gotten $18 million after three (and then why the Phillies are paying him $54 million over three seasons).

Special accomplishment is Jeter, being Jeter.

It is recognition by the system – and then the arbitration panel – that the ballplayer sitting before it is unique. Not simply good, not even great, but unequaled at this point in his life and career.

No player in his first two full seasons has won Cy Youngs in both.

At 25 years old, 89 starts in, Lincecum is 40-17 for a team with no discernible offense. His ERA is 2.90. In his Cy Young seasons his numbers go 33-12, 2.55. And the little wispy kid everyone assumed would blow into the bay one September night, assuming his arm stayed attached that long, in two seasons has made 65 starts and thrown 452 1/3 innings. Those worries? Up – ahem – in smoke.

Sure, he’s got peers.

Superman, for one.

Over a season, Zack Greinke(notes), Felix Hernandez(notes), Adam Wainwright(notes), Chris Carpenter(notes).

Over two?

Eight pitchers have won more than two Cy Youngs. They are Clemens, Randy Johnson(notes), Steve Carlton, Greg Maddux(notes), Sandy Koufax, Pedro Martinez(notes), Jim Palmer and Tom Seaver. One – Clemens – won two by the age of 25, and only Martinez and Seaver won one by then.

So if the Giants and Lincecum advance to a hearing, Lincecum would ask the panel to consider a pay structure without regard to service time or comparable salaries. It’s why he’d ask the panel for $12 million or $14 million. Or more.

And it’s why the Giants seem to have no strong ideas about strategy, and maybe why they so desperately need bats and yet apparently won’t bid for Matt Holliday(notes) or Jason Bay(notes).

So, how big will Timmy go?

One baseball official said this week the folks at Beverly Hills Sports Council and players’ union had discussed the strategic bounds of submitting a bid for $23,000,001. The highest-salaried pitcher, CC Sabathia(notes), plus a dollar. And all that symbolizes. Why shouldn’t the best pitcher get the most money, period? The agency and union declined to comment on the highly secretive process, other than to grant that, yes, Lincecum is a special case. Extremely special.

That certainly would be big. They’d lose, of course. The Giants would be thrilled. Sabean could roll out his stats guys after cocktails, win the case, and head back to the bar for a celebratory night cap.

The Giants would pay him their $8 or $9 million, even $10 million, and go happily. After all, after a couple years, there’s never been anyone better, as Lincecum’s agents well know. How does one quantify the unquantifiable?

Maybe it’s enough to know they’ve talked about it, kicked it around, made the union a little nervous and had a laugh over what the reaction might be.

CC plus a dollar? Funny. Self-destructive, but funny, in that special accomplishment kind of way. Nobody would do that.

Would they?

And if they did, they couldn’t win.

Could they?

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ti-lincecum112409&prov=yhoo&type=lgns&expire=1

Zmaster52
11-24-2009, 09:58 PM
i wouldn't be surprised if he demanded more then howard

Zaunnie
11-24-2009, 10:00 PM
if Lincecum gets paid 23 million in 2010...:pity:

Towelie
11-24-2009, 10:02 PM
He was worth $37.0 million so why not.

MooseWithFleas
11-24-2009, 10:02 PM
:laugh2:. If he demanded 23, the Giants could simply file for 6 million and they would win. Seems like Lincecum and Giants management are on the same page though and get along well. They will probably avoid arbitration.

Zmaster52
11-24-2009, 10:04 PM
:laugh2:. If he demanded 23, the Giants could simply file for 6 million and they would win. Seems like Lincecum and Giants management are on the same page though and get along well. They will probably avoid arbitration.

:laugh: so true though. him filing for 23m is outrageous

SB75
11-24-2009, 10:12 PM
Tim should and will break the ARB #'s for his payday. The Giants should pay him to keep the relationship in good shape. He deserves to be paid along the elite line other pitchers are.

RamOG
11-24-2009, 10:14 PM
I see a 10 year $210M contract that progresses from 2010-$9M, 2011-$12M, 2012-$1M, 2013-$18M, 2014-$20M, 2015-$22M, 2016-$24M, 2017-$26M, 2018-$27M, 2019-$27M

Zmaster52
11-24-2009, 10:20 PM
I see a 10 year $210M contract that progresses from 2010-$9M, 2011-$12M, 2012-$1M, 2013-$18M, 2014-$20M, 2015-$22M, 2016-$24M, 2017-$26M, 2018-$27M, 2019-$27M

i could actually see that happening

ccspence8
11-24-2009, 10:22 PM
he should get 10-12M...he did win 2 Cy Youngs back to back.

MooseWithFleas
11-24-2009, 10:25 PM
I see a 10 year $210M contract that progresses from 2010-$9M, 2011-$12M, 2012-$1M, 2013-$18M, 2014-$20M, 2015-$22M, 2016-$24M, 2017-$26M, 2018-$27M, 2019-$27M

Those numbers fall 24 million dollars short of $210m. Part of it could be attributed to you having him earn only 1 million in 2012 though.


i could actually see that happening

That's because you experienced the tirade of Steve Phillips, who I doubt could count himself.

BlueJayFanDan
11-24-2009, 10:25 PM
I see a 10 year $210M contract that progresses from 2010-$9M, 2011-$12M, 2012-$1M, 2013-$18M, 2014-$20M, 2015-$22M, 2016-$24M, 2017-$26M, 2018-$27M, 2019-$27M

I think your math is a bit off... That definitely does not add up to 210. Try again.

Zmaster52
11-24-2009, 10:27 PM
Those numbers fall 24 million dollars short of $210m. Part of it could be attributed to you having him earn only 1 million in 2012 though.



That's because you experienced the tirade of Steve Phillips, who I doubt could count himself.

actually im only 13, and i became a mets fan in '06 cuz thats as far back as i can actually remember, i dnt remember when phillips was GM

MooseWithFleas
11-24-2009, 10:30 PM
actually im only 13, and i became a mets fan in '06 cuz thats as far back as i can actually remember, i dnt remember when phillips was GM

I would say you were lucky, but after the last 3 years, I will withhold that comment. Nonetheless, be glad you didn't experience his awful GM skills.

SFGIANTSFAN32
11-24-2009, 10:31 PM
For a pitcher to make 27m(every 5th day player) a year is just out of control, I dont care who it is. Its one thing for Arod but he plays everyday and thats just insame as well jmo

Zmaster52
11-24-2009, 10:32 PM
I would say you were lucky, but after the last 3 years, I will withhold that comment. Nonetheless, be glad you didn't experience his awful GM skills.

yes. i know he was a horrible GM and i am very lucky.

TheRuckus
11-24-2009, 10:34 PM
He'll end up with $12-14 million.

CQSox305
11-24-2009, 10:39 PM
They will likely agree on 10-12m. Or SF hopes a 5 year extension.

MooseWithFleas
11-24-2009, 10:41 PM
Regardless, this is really ****ing up the system for small market teams. The nice thing about the 6 year rookie contracts is that it allows teams to have their top talents for a reduced cost, but with the arbitration records being toppled nearly every year, that idea is going out the window.

Silent
11-24-2009, 11:12 PM
10 mill per cy young =2 cy youngs = 20 mill

VenezuelanMet
11-24-2009, 11:28 PM
For a pitcher to make 27m(every 5th day player) a year is just out of control, I dont care who it is. Its one thing for Arod but he plays everyday and thats just insame as well jmo

Oh plz not this **** again.

Starting pitchers can be as valuable as any player, I don't get why this seems unfathomable for some people

Pinstripe pride
11-25-2009, 10:11 AM
he won't sniff 23 million. he'll get a huge payday, but 23 million is not going to happen. EIther way I doubt he hits arbitration because the giants will come to some sort of extension with him

Kinsm
11-25-2009, 01:34 PM
Could Lincecum File for $23 Million?

Sure he could, but he'd certainly lose.

Tragedy
11-25-2009, 03:03 PM
He was worth $37.0 million so why not.
Because that's not the point of arbitration. Arbitration was put into place to give players raises and allow them to begin to make better money, but also flexibility for the team to be able to control their rights before they go to free agency and get silly money.

All this crap of Howard getting $10 million, Papelbon getting $6 million, and Willis getting $4 million is a joke. It has absolutely ruined what baseball put into place to keep younger players salaries in line. The arbitration system has been completely ruined, and it sucks.

kylekash
11-25-2009, 03:10 PM
Someone mentioned a 10yr 210 mil contract. I don't care how good a pitcher is I would NEVER EVER offer them a 10yr guaranteed contract. Pitchers are very fragile now a days, and most of them break down eventually. A 10yr contract is a huge risk if a guy ends up going down with a torn rotator cuff or something along those lines 2-3 yrs in.

CityofTreez
11-25-2009, 04:18 PM
Lincecum's a ****ing stud, $23 million though?

TragicallyHip
11-25-2009, 04:40 PM
I can see 13MM if this thing goes to arbitration. He's more valuable than Franky Rodriguez, whom recieved 10MM in arb.

Thatruth32
11-25-2009, 04:58 PM
timmy is worth every penny whatever he gets

1sg1977
11-25-2009, 05:48 PM
timmy is worth every penny whatever he gets

well, unless it precludes the Giants from being able to afford a bat

a dominant ace's value is limited if his team can't score runs