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Sportfan
10-11-2009, 07:28 PM
Just by browsing the red sox forum you can see red sox nation is not a fan of Papelbon. The dissapointing loss today defitantly didnt help. Regular stats tend to make Papelbon look top 5, but is he really that good? Sabermetrics arent particulary favoring him. How good of a closer is Papelbon? And what would you offer to acquire him?

brewersfan729
10-11-2009, 07:33 PM
Closers in general are overrated. I certainly would never give up much or spend a lot of money to get one.

Havoc Wreaker
10-11-2009, 07:33 PM
He´s worth....less. :p

StryderSox
10-11-2009, 07:34 PM
As a Sox fan I would love to move him if we can get something good in return and then move Daniel Bard to the closers role.

Lincecum4CY
10-11-2009, 07:38 PM
I've always felt hes overrated. A lot of times i watch him, he seems to be in trouble and getting hit pretty hard which is why i'm so surprised his era was below 2.00 and all that stuff. I've never been a papelbon fan, and i feel he thinks hes one of the best closers in the game when hes really not.

Ralf Jones
10-11-2009, 07:41 PM
right now i wouldn't trade a bag of doritos for him.but I'm sure some team would consider their 3,4,or 5th best prospects for him.but i think that would be more of a mid season trying to stay in the hunt type of move

King Henrik
10-11-2009, 07:42 PM
he needs to stop throwing nothing but the fastball. its not hard to hit a fastball when you know its coming

MalkinIsMagic
10-11-2009, 07:42 PM
More than K-Rod.

I could care less if the Sox keep him or trade him, but he's not the reason we lost the ALDS like everyone's making it seem.

IRUAM #21
10-11-2009, 07:45 PM
He´s worth....less. :p

:rimshot:

katie mines
10-11-2009, 07:49 PM
Luckily the Red Sox nation does not decide who is traded

Papelbon is going to stay he had one bad game


The REd Sox cant afford to **** around with their pitchingg especailly in the division they are in

nymetsrule
10-11-2009, 07:52 PM
Luckily the Red Sox nation does not decide who is traded

Papelbon is going to stay he had one bad game


The REd Sox cant afford to fufckkk around with their pitchingg especailly in the division they are in

Didn't he have more than one bad game this season? :shrug:

Sportfan
10-11-2009, 07:58 PM
Luckily the Red Sox nation does not decide who is traded

Papelbon is going to stay he had one bad game


The REd Sox cant afford to fufckkk around with their pitchingg especailly in the division they are in

newb :pity:

He has had a number of bad performances, if you actually saw the games you would know. He has gotten into big jams many times, and many stats of his have decrease in the past few years

bagwell368
10-11-2009, 08:06 PM
He´s worth....less. :p

I'm the biggest Pap basher on the Sox board (w/ the stats to back me up - and I started to agitate against him in '08), but, all that said if he went to a minor league (the NL) he'd probably blow Mo off the map all time.

StryderSox
10-11-2009, 08:11 PM
More than K-Rod.

I could care less if the Sox keep him or trade him, but he's not the reason we lost the ALDS like everyone's making it seem.

I completely agree that he is by no means responsible for losing the series. He is at fault for this game but the reason we lost the series was our inability to generate any offence in the first two games.

I just don't like Papelbon because to me he is starting to become "Paps Being Paps" with the Mannyesque incidents and comments he makes. I can see why non Sox fans can't stand the guy. That being said I would only trade him if we can get a significant piece to help out for next year like a solid shortstop

INeedMyJays
10-11-2009, 08:11 PM
Worth 2 fenway franks :D

iggypop123
10-11-2009, 08:19 PM
hu, a player to be named later?

MooseWithFleas
10-11-2009, 08:20 PM
Just by browsing the red sox forum you can see red sox nation is not a fan of Papelbon. The dissapointing loss today defitantly didnt help. Regular stats tend to make Papelbon look top 5, but is he really that good? Sabermetrics arent particulary favoring him. How good of a closer is Papelbon? And what would you offer to acquire him?

Well over the last 4 years he has been worth 10.825 million a year. With 2009 giving him a value of 8.7 mil. I would say his value going forward would be between 8 and 10 mil.

Historical evidence shows that pitching prospects ranked 76-100 are worth 9.8 million, while top 76-100 hitting prospects are worth 12.5 mil. So you are probably looking at a couple of B level hitting prospects or a pitcher ranked 76-100.

To put that in perspective, some of the pitching prospects ranked by baseball america in the 76-100 range were... Sean West, Michael Bowden, Brad Holt, and Jeff Samardzija. Now in today's baseball, teams overpay for already established players so you should expect more than that. Possibly a solid everyday player and a prospect. I wouldn't give up more than what I mentioned before though.

VenezuelanMet
10-11-2009, 08:31 PM
The same as most closers: Not much

MooseWithFleas
10-11-2009, 08:35 PM
The same as most closers: Not much

When's the last time a closer of Papelbon's talent level got traded? Now I agree in theory, that a closer shouldn't be of much value. I'd rather go with a cheap option and spend money elsewhere on a more important factor of the team. Then again, I've had to live with the Brad Lidge rollercoaster all year :D. However, I don't remember the last time a closer like Papelbon got traded, remind my poor memory if I am missing one.

Ralf Jones
10-11-2009, 08:39 PM
When's the last time a closer of Papelbon's talent level got traded? Now I agree in theory, that a closer shouldn't be of much value. I'd rather go with a cheap option and spend money elsewhere on a more important factor of the team. Then again, I've had to live with the Brad Lidge rollercoaster all year :D. However, I don't remember the last time a closer like Papelbon got traded, remind my poor memory if I am missing one.

wasn't lidge considered and elite closer prior to the albert debacle?

MooseWithFleas
10-11-2009, 08:53 PM
Yes, but we didn't trade for him until after that. He had run his course with the Astros. He lost his job to Dan Wheeler, reclaimed it, but never developed the consistency he had in the pre-Albert years. Nonetheless, he still had value as a closer as he had a strong 2nd half showing. We ended up trading Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary, and a B-level prospect. So basically a nice every day player, a middle reliever, and some farm depth.

Papelbon's value is on a different level than that though. However, the value I attribute to closers would lead me to make a similar offer to what was given to Lidge. I'm sure there is some team out there with closer woes that would be willing to give up more than that though. Cardinals or Cubs perhaps? I have no background to say they would be good or feasible fits, I'm just mentioning a few larger market teams that have had closer troubles.

Sportfan
10-11-2009, 10:09 PM
Well over the last 4 years he has been worth 10.825 million a year. With 2009 giving him a value of 8.7 mil. I would say his value going forward would be between 8 and 10 mil.

Historical evidence shows that pitching prospects ranked 76-100 are worth 9.8 million, while top 76-100 hitting prospects are worth 12.5 mil. So you are probably looking at a couple of B level hitting prospects or a pitcher ranked 76-100.

To put that in perspective, some of the pitching prospects ranked by baseball america in the 76-100 range were... Sean West, Michael Bowden, Brad Holt, and Jeff Samardzija. Now in today's baseball, teams overpay for already established players so you should expect more than that. Possibly a solid everyday player and a prospect. I wouldn't give up more than what I mentioned before though.

A team like your phillies? they need a closer

ShinobiNYC
10-11-2009, 10:16 PM
The same as most closers: Not much

Yep....I rather have Carlos Gomez than Mariano Rivera

runnermjr1296
10-11-2009, 10:47 PM
funny i didn't see him do that yell and stupid fist pump today,,,why is that?

Twinke Masta
10-11-2009, 11:01 PM
not 12 mil a year thats for sure...

Dr.Philly
10-11-2009, 11:10 PM
A team like your phillies? they need a closer

There's only about 10 teams that have a cosistent closer.

For the most part closers are a crap shoot. Most teams change closers every year, sometimes once or twice a year.

CQSox305
10-11-2009, 11:15 PM
Around 6-8M a year. He is no where near a top 5 closer.

CQSox305
10-11-2009, 11:17 PM
funny i didn't see him do that yell and stupid fist pump today,,,why is that?

Haha good point he is one of the Douchiest players in baseball.

Pavelb1
10-11-2009, 11:18 PM
funny i didn't see him do that yell and stupid fist pump today,,,why is that?

Same reason you haven't seen Joba do it in awhile.

Pavelb1
10-11-2009, 11:19 PM
Yep....I rather have Carlos Gomez than Mariano Rivera

Shhhh...WAR says Coco Crisp is more valuable then Rivera.

Tragedy
10-11-2009, 11:58 PM
Around 6-8M a year. He is no where near a top 5 closer.
Really...No where NEAR a top 5 Closer?

Mariano
Nathan
Soria
Hoffman
Papelbon

Who else pushes Papelbon far away from being even close to a top 5? :laugh2:

As for Papelbons worth..I think he's worth a lot..But in a trade. I've hoped for a while now that the Sox didn't bother giving him the silly contract he is worth. Closers aren't nearly worthless as some say, but they're certainly not worth $50 million like a BJ Ryan received.

Trade him, get what you can for him, and let him be some other teams problem. The guy is a douche.

Ralf Jones
10-12-2009, 12:04 AM
Really...No where NEAR a top 5 Closer?

Mariano
Nathan
Soria
Hoffman
Papelbon

Who else pushes Papelbon far away from being even close to a top 5? :laugh2:

As for Papelbons worth..I think he's worth a lot..But in a trade. I've hoped for a while now that the Sox didn't bother giving him the silly contract he is worth. Closers aren't nearly worthless as some say, but they're certainly not worth $50 million like a BJ Ryan received.

Trade him, get what you can for him, and let him be some other teams problem. The guy is a douche.

lol at bj ryan deal


what about K-rod?

Tragedy
10-12-2009, 12:05 AM
lol at bj ryan deal


what about K-rod?
What about him?

I mean, at least the K-Rod deal was a 3 year deal and he'll only be 30 by the end of the life of that deal. But, still, closers getting paid over $10 million per season is sad.

Ralf Jones
10-12-2009, 12:11 AM
What about him?

I mean, at least the K-Rod deal was a 3 year deal and he'll only be 30 by the end of the life of that deal. But, still, closers getting paid over $10 million per season is sad.

oh no I agree.closers shouldn't be getting paid number 3 starter type money.I meant by mentioning him closers that push pap out of the the top 5 although to be honest I at this point hes still a better bet then Hoffman now adays

Jamiecballer
10-12-2009, 09:04 AM
to recap:

-consensus is that the man is a bag that one uses to clean a vagina

-his career numbers are dirty but some feel that he is developing "Billy Koch Syndrome", a disease that causes the pitcher to forget that he has other pitches besides a fastball


Somewhere JP Ricciardi is preparing a 8yr/114M offer in the off-chance that somebody gives him a job in the near future

uwish1127
10-12-2009, 09:14 AM
Of course he is worth something but he would probably be key in a trade for like Roy Halladay deal, where the blue jays need a closer and obviously they get more than just Papplebon, but like I said he probably would highlight any deal for them.

sox04rR
10-12-2009, 09:15 AM
newb :pity:

He has had a number of bad performances, if you actually saw the games you would know. He has gotten into big jams many times, and many stats of his have decrease in the past few years




I'm watching the things that you say and they dont even make any sense. Plus look at your check list. I think the only thing right about that is trading for a big bat. Yes pap had a horrible day but why would you trade a top 3 closer??????? Plus it doesnt help when the sawx averaged 0.5 runs a game in the first 2 games and had a combined total of 10 hits or somthing like that

Twitchy
10-12-2009, 10:02 AM
Of course he is worth something but he would probably be key in a trade for like Roy Halladay deal, where the blue jays need a closer and obviously they get more than just Papplebon, but like I said he probably would highlight any deal for them.

Papelbon would not be a key in a Halladay deal. He'd be the last thing the Jays want.

MalkinIsMagic
10-12-2009, 10:05 AM
Papelbon would not be a key in a Halladay deal. He'd be the last thing the Jays want.

Yea, I find that VERY hard to believe.

Cubs Win
10-12-2009, 10:33 AM
Same reason you haven't seen Joba do it in awhile.

When did Joba blow a two run lead with 2 outs in the ninth allowing his team to be swept?

In fact, Joba's team did the opposite of getting swept.

dtmagnet
10-12-2009, 10:54 AM
Papelbon would not be a key in a Halladay deal. He'd be the last thing the Jays want.

Agreed, why do you need a high profile closer when you're in total rebuild mode?

StryderSox
10-12-2009, 12:53 PM
newb :pity:

He has had a number of bad performances, if you actually saw the games you would know. He has gotten into big jams many times, and many stats of his have decrease in the past few years

too bad that those 3 runs are the only 3 runs he has ever given up in post-season play. Don't be a hater because he is better than your closer

dynasty7961
10-12-2009, 01:16 PM
Pap reallly needs to go back to throwing that spliter. that thing was nasty. i just dont understand what happened.:confused:

Shaggy
10-12-2009, 01:23 PM
Just by browsing the red sox forum you can see red sox nation is not a fan of Papelbon. The dissapointing loss today defitantly didnt help. Regular stats tend to make Papelbon look top 5, but is he really that good? Sabermetrics arent particulary favoring him. How good of a closer is Papelbon? And what would you offer to acquire him?

Why would you as a true Red Sox fan come on to the general MLB forum and post about how much this guy sucks. I believe that the Sox lost that game because Varitek was not in the game to calm Paps down. I'm not saying its all his fault, but the relationship between the pitcher and catcher is one you don't screw with, especially when that pitcher is your closer in the final game of the post-season.

Imperial
10-12-2009, 06:39 PM
Just by browsing the red sox forum you can see red sox nation is not a fan of Papelbon. The dissapointing loss today defitantly didnt help. Regular stats tend to make Papelbon look top 5, but is he really that good? Sabermetrics arent particulary favoring him. How good of a closer is Papelbon? And what would you offer to acquire him?

I said this in the Boston forum and I'll say it here.

I think the talk about trading Papelbon is reactionary and short-sited. He's been one of the best closers in baseball the last 2+ years and people are talking about him as if he's in decline. He changed his pitching mechanics and was a bit wild the first half of the season. But other than that tiny sample size, he's had tremendous control. He pitches 26 scoreless innings in the playoffs and blows his first playoff game and suddenly he's a goat? Please.

bagwell368
10-12-2009, 07:15 PM
I said this in the Boston forum and I'll say it here.

I think the talk about trading Papelbon is reactionary and short-sited. He's been one of the best closers in baseball the last 2+ years and people are talking about him as if he's in decline. He changed his pitching mechanics and was a bit wild the first half of the season. But other than that tiny sample size, he's had tremendous control. He pitches 26 scoreless innings in the playoffs and blows his first playoff game and suddenly he's a goat? Please.

It is not reactionary nor short sighted. I started this myself on the Sox board in 2008. He is in decline, and the stats bear it out. '06 > '07 > '08 > '09. It isn't just some 3 month thing.

He has spoken of being the highest paid closer, well it won't be in Boston. So instead of waiting around (and hoping he gets inked as a type A player who will yield two guys that MIGHT help in about 5-6 years) after the 2011 season, we move now to shore up our line-up which is weak by dealing Pap from the strongest portion of our team - the bullpen.

Tremedous control? Not this year.

NYK|NYY
10-12-2009, 08:15 PM
I think its definitely reactionary that Boston wants to move him, however they have a great talent in Bard and if they are positive he can be effective I would move Paps instead of giving him a new contract. I don't know which teams would be willing to give up decent talent though for a closer (the amount of talent that Papelbon would demand).

BoTiggle
10-12-2009, 09:03 PM
I think its definitely reactionary that Boston wants to move him, however they have a great talent in Bard and if they are positive he can be effective I would move Paps instead of giving him a new contract. I don't know which teams would be willing to give up decent talent though for a closer (the amount of talent that Papelbon would demand).

It's definitely not reactionary.

Like Bagwell said, he's become less effective year after year. Like you said, we have a "great talent" in Bard, not to mention the possibility of Wagner coming back. There is clearly a surplus at the position, so why wouldn't the Sox use it to bolster their lineup?

This isn't a new idea by any means. But after yesterday's performance, you can understand why everyone is talking about it.

Also, Papelbon would be the centerpiece of a trade(for a middle-of-the-lineup hitter) that would include some top prospects as well.

Imperial
10-12-2009, 09:26 PM
It is not reactionary nor short sighted. I started this myself on the Sox board in 2008. He is in decline, and the stats bear it out. '06 > '07 > '08 > '09. It isn't just some 3 month thing.

He has spoken of being the highest paid closer, well it won't be in Boston. So instead of waiting around (and hoping he gets inked as a type A player who will yield two guys that MIGHT help in about 5-6 years) after the 2011 season, we move now to shore up our line-up which is weak by dealing Pap from the strongest portion of our team - the bullpen.

Tremedous control? Not this year.

Sorry, but the stats say otherwise. In 2008 he had the best FIP of his career and you said he was in decline? This year he had the highest WHIP of his career at 1.15 and suddenly he doesn't have good control? He has the lowest career WHIP of any active pitcher in baseball. Seems awfully reactionary to me.

bagwell368
10-12-2009, 09:32 PM
Sorry, but the stats say otherwise. In 2008 he had the best FIP of his career and you said he was in decline? This year he had the highest WHIP of his career at 1.15 and suddenly he doesn't have good control? He has the lowest career WHIP of any active pitcher in baseball. Seems awfully reactionary to me.

Obviously not every stat is in decline year after year, but overall - for sure.

I posted on the "Papelbon" thread this very afternoon in response to you saying I had no argument, but I do, quite a few stats bear me out. I haven't checked in an hour to see if you have finally answered me and my post, so I won't repost here - yet.

Imperial
10-12-2009, 09:59 PM
Obviously not every stat is in decline year after year, but overall - for sure.

I posted on the "Papelbon" thread this very afternoon in response to you saying I had no argument, but I do, quite a few stats bear me out. I haven't checked in an hour to see if you have finally answered me and my post, so I won't repost here - yet.

What stats show he's in decline every year? You can say the stats prove you right without referencing them all you want, but that doesn't mean you're right. You claim Papelbon has been in decline every year since 2006.

In 2007 he had his career best WHIP, BAA and K/9. That's the opposite of decline. In 2008 he had the best FIP, BB/9, K/BB of his career. Name me ONE STAT that has declined every year since 2006 if you think he's shown steady decline since then. 2008 was a career year for him according to most sabermetric stats.

As for "finally" answering you, it's been what, a few hours? Sorry, but I don't stay logged in to the site all day, refreshing every few minutes.

Nymfan87
10-12-2009, 10:11 PM
If I were the Red Sox, I'd keep Wagner as my closer for next season and trade Papelbon to the team that has the best offer. Some team (Cubs, Braves?) in need of a closer would certainly be willing to part with a good bit of talent to get him.

iam brett favre
10-12-2009, 10:17 PM
This much. (http://www.littlebiggames.com/store/images/BUPKIS_Loog_wht.gif)

bagwell368
10-12-2009, 10:19 PM
What stats show he's in decline every year? You can say the stats prove you right without referencing them all you want, but that doesn't mean you're right. You claim Papelbon has been in decline every year since 2006.

In 2007 he had his career best WHIP, BAA and K/9. That's the opposite of decline. In 2008 he had the best FIP, BB/9, K/BB of his career. Name me ONE STAT that has declined every year since 2006 if you think he's shown steady decline since then. 2008 was a career year for him according to most sabermetric stats.

As for "finally" answering you, it's been what, a few hours? Sorry, but I don't stay logged in to the site all day, refreshing every few minutes.

Interesting that you have yapped away in several other threads the past few hours but keep missing my posts, no longer:

Oh I most certainly do. Since the middle of 2008 I have started a handful of threads on the topic of his decline alone, and posted dozens of fact filled posts to boot. Here is the thread starter from 7/29/09 "the decline and fall of J. Papelbon":

First, stats from ’06 – ’09 are listed:

Hits/BB/OBP/SLG:

H/9: 5.3, 4.6, 7.5, 8.2 (this year’s hit rates are 44% above ‘07)
B A: .167, .146, .223, .236 (this year’s BA is 38% above ’07)
BB/9: 1.7, 2.3, 1.0, 4.2 (this year’s BB 247% above ’06, and 420% above ’08)
BB%: 5.1, 6.7, 2.9, 10.6 (this year’s BB% is 366% above’08)
OBP: .254, .244, .315, .345 (this year’s OBP is 30% above ’07)
BAbip: .226, .216, .300, .299 (this year’s BAbip is 28% above ’07)
HR/9: .4, .8, .5 .8 (this year’s HR’s are 100% higher then ’06)
SLG: .465, .463, .561, .670 (this year’s SLG is 31% above ’07)

K, K/BB, WHIP:

K/9: 9.9, 13.0, 10.0, 9.4 (this year’s K/9 rate is 27% below ’07)
K%: 29,2, 37.5, 28,2 23.8 (this year’s K% is 36% below ’07)
K/BB: 5.77, 5.6, 9.63, 2.25 (this year’s K/BB ratio is 428% lower then in ’08)
WHIP: .776, .771, .952, 1.372 (this years WHIP is 56% higher then ’07)

Clean outings:

27/59 (45.8); 29/59 (49.1) ; 30/67 (44.8); 12/43 (27.9) (this year’s clean outings rate is 43% below ’07)

Rates:

RAAA: 41, 30, 22, 15 (25 if he continues as is). 41 is great, 30 is a very fine season, mid 20’s is still quite good.

DERA: 1.70, 2.58, 3.51, 2.52 (1.70 is great, even 3.51 is above average)

Summary: Paps is a functional closer at the moment. If he doesn’t slip from where he is this season, he can be depended on to be an above average closer (28-50th percentile - see below), with a big reputation, especially in the post season. If they keep signing him up for a few more years before he is a FA, and get two picks for him leaving, OK. It would be cost effective.

He is not however an elite closer any longer. In ’06 and ’07 he was, in ’08 he slipped. He has continued to decline this year. His blown saves% and ERA are still quite solid, but the other measurements are drooping , and the ERA, and BS will follow them sooner rather than later - given the current long term slide.

I’m sure someone will say, he is the best or one of the best. Well I’ve got all the closers in the top 50% listed below, and he isn't in the top half. The stats are pre-game 7/29/09 – w/ ERA, WHIP and SV%. It should be noted that of the 15 names I have besides Papelbon, every one of them has a better WHIP. Eight of the 15 have a better ERA, and nine of them have a better SV%.

Elite:

Mariano Rivera – Yanks: 2.11 - 0.820 – 97%
Francisco Cordero – Reds: 1.83 – 1.119 – 96%
Heath Bell – Padres: 2.01 – 1.206 – 96%
Huston Street – Rockies: 2.55 – 0.921- 96%
Mr. Mystery: 1.85 – .0771 - 93%
Ryan Franklin – Cards: 1.21 – 0.884 – 92%
David Aardsma – Mariners: 1.68 – 1.117 – 92% (where do they get these guys?)
Trevor Hoffman – 1.86 – 1.069 – 92%
Jonathan Bonxton – 2.76 – 0.898 – 92%
Joe Nathan – Twins: 1.59 – 0.756 – 90%

Next tier:

Joakim Soria – Royals: 1.52 – 0.944 – 89%
Jon Papelbon – Red Sox: 2.09 – 1.372 – 89%
Rafael Soriano – Braves: 1.91 – 0.894 – 88%
Francisco Rodriguez: 2,12 – 1.200 – 88%
Frank Francisco – Rangers: 2.28 – 0.940 – 88%
George Sherrill – Orioles: 2.40 – 1.137 – 87%
Brian Wilson – Giants: 3.18 – 1.169 – 87%

In all fairness, Paps does not belong in the top 28% (9/32) of closers at this point this year. He belongs in the next tier – 28-50th percentile. The astute among you will have noticed I had 10 names in the elite list, not 9. “Mr. Mystery” – who is Papelbon circa 2007. Two years ago, he’d come in as #5, he’s #12 this year off of his SV% alone, if I factored in his WHIP and other stats above, he’d be lower - right out of the top 50%.

No need for alarm, just line up with your fellow ostriches.

Norieaga
10-13-2009, 10:21 AM
Ok, I registered just to defend Papelbon.

1. He did not "lose" the playoffs for Boston.
First off, baseball is a team sport; the whole team lost. Second off, if we're going to blame anyone then let's look at the offense which scored 1 run the first 2 games. Or let's look at the generally <.400OPS that Youks, V-Mart, Bay, and Ortiz posted.

2. He's still elite
1.85ERA, 1.15WHIP...all in the AL East. And I'm going to say that Papelbon has some of the best poise for a closer in the MLB. He's been doing this for years now. If he's going to be traded its because of his upcoming contract situation, not because he is "declining".



Mariano Rivera – Yanks: 2.11 - 0.820 – 97% Ok, he's better than Paps. But he's also more likely to decline based strictly on age.And honestly, I feel like Paps can duel with him if he has to, its not like Mo is THAT much better.

Francisco Cordero – Reds: 1.83 – 1.119 – 96% He ended up with higher ERA and WHIP than Paps, and has declined more than Paps ("3.33ERA" in '08)

Heath Bell – Padres: 2.01 – 1.206 – 96% His ERA was almost a run higher and his home park is one of the best pitchers parks.

Huston Street – Rockies: 2.55 – 0.921- 96% Much higher ERA than Paps this year, near-4 ERA last year, but has a chance to be better based on age and stuff.

Ryan Franklin – Cards: 1.21 – 0.884 – 92% He's 35 years old...who's to say this isn't a fluke year? I'll take Paps' consistency.

David Aardsma – Mariners: 1.68 – 1.117 – 92% (where do they get these guys?) Well, they got him from...us. Again, I'll take Paps' consistency over a guy who had a +5ERA in '08

Trevor Hoffman – 1.86 – 1.069 – 92% Older, had an ERA near 4 last season, pitches in a pitcher's park. Much more likely than Paps to decline.

Jonathan Bonxton – 2.76 – 0.898 – 92% Ok, he might be based on age.

Joe Nathan – Twins: 1.59 – 0.756 – 90% Ok, agreed.

Also, it should be noted that saves are a very situational statistic. Number of appearances plus innings pitched should be factored more heavily, plus the amount of leverage behind an inning should also be considered. Look at Brian Fuentes: he had 48 saves but his ERA hardly resembles that of a shutdown closer.


Stats taken end of season from mlb.com

bagwell368
10-13-2009, 11:50 AM
Ok, I registered just to defend Papelbon.

1. He did not "lose" the playoffs for Boston.

2. He's still elite


I never said he lost the playoffs for the Sox.

He is not still elite. If his '06 and '07 seasons are elite (and they are IMO) then '08 and '09 are not. He is down trending in many areas: WHIP, K/BB, BB/9, clean innings, BA, OBP, SLG. Go read the stats for yourself.

His shoulder is very well undersood, and very touchy, he cannot pitch on as many consecutive days, or a group of days as almost any other closer. About 50% of the guys who are closing at age 26-27 and either retired or doing mop up by age 32. If we sign Wagner for two years, Wagner and Bard is good enough to hold the farm, while we deal Paps as part of a larger deal to get us an elite 1B (AGON is my choice). Not I did not say Paps to SD, or the kids we get would get Agon - part of the deal.

Are you satisfied with the Sox offense in 2010 with the addition of say Blalock and Barajas?


(where do they get these guys?) Well, they got him from...us.

No **** sherlock, it was a joke.

Rylinkus
10-13-2009, 12:19 PM
To point keep using age to point to decline indicates a pretty poor argument. Mo keeps trudging forward with a fluid motion and is showing very few signs or regression even at his age. Frankly it's dumbfounding. Papelbon has had shoulder issues and a lot of closer flame out by the time they'e 30. I certainly wouldn't use the ages of Mo, Papelbon, Broxton, or whomever to point to who will or won't be good nest season. I'd use the fact that Papelbon is showing signs of decline here and there and it's probably not going to bode well for his future.

ccspence8
10-13-2009, 12:44 PM
Red Sox Nation is not overreacting. Throughout the whole season many of us, including myself, have said that in the offseason or at the next deadline we should trade Papelbon. He is overrated. He USED to be the best closer in baseball but for the past 2 seasons all he throws is a fastball. No one is guessing what he's gonna throw. If it didn't have movement he'd be sitting in AAA. It works sometimes but it just seems like he lets the bases loaded everytime out and ends up getting out of it.

The Sox will not sign him when he becomes a FA so why not trade him now or at the deadline. Resign Wagner for 1-2 yrs and when his time is up Bard will be more than ready to step in. I'm willing to bet a team will give 2 top 5 prospects in their organization for Pap. If not we could work him into a bigger type of deal for a 1B/3B or SP. I could see them shipping him in a 3 way deal. No one seems to match straight up unless its Texas or Detroit.

Mr Grim
10-13-2009, 12:48 PM
Pabelbon was never the best closer in baseball.

ccspence8
10-13-2009, 12:52 PM
To blame Pap for losing the playoffs is a joke. But this just shows that we have closers inside this bullpen already and if we can trade him to get that piece of the puzzle we're missing why wouldn't you do it?

The Sox clearly need that one big hitter to solidify this lineup. No pitcher is pitching around our guys. Ortiz hit 28 HR and 99 RBI but he's not that same guy, he's hitting like 220...no one is scared of him anymore. Ellsbury is a beast, Pedroia had his worst season (though he didn't play bad by an stretch), Martinez will help alot more when we boot Varitek, Youk is well Youk but having him hit 4th means ur lineup is a problem, Bay & Drew are so streaky, Lowell can't stay healthy.

After 2010 look for big changes coming from the Sox with Beckett, Ortiz, Lowell, Martinez and Gonzalez coming off the books.

So we'll here all the names this offseason: Fielder to A Gon...Reyes to H Ramirez...Halladay to King Felix

All I do know is that this team needs to make a big move because honestly I knew this team wasn't good enough to make it to the WS. You can't win if you score 1 run in 18 innings.

Rylinkus
10-13-2009, 12:59 PM
All the talk of him only throwing his fastball is a bit far fetched. If anything is looks like he's throwing his splitter less and slider more.


% Fastballs thrown
2007: 78.1
2008: 81.2
2009: 81.5

% Splits thrown
2007: 15.7
2008: 12.6
2009: 9.3

% Sliders thrown
2007: 6.2
2008: 6.1
2009: 9.2

ccspence8
10-13-2009, 01:03 PM
pabelbon was never the best closer in baseball.

06: 0.92 era 0.77 whip 10 k/9 35/39 sv
07: 1.85 era 0.77 whip 13 k/9 37/40 sv

ccspence8
10-13-2009, 01:06 PM
All the talk of him only throwing his fastball is a bit far fetched. If anything is looks like he's throwing his splitter less and slider more.


% Fastballs thrown
2007: 78.1
2008: 81.2
2009: 81.5

% Splits thrown
2007: 15.7
2008: 12.6
2009: 9.3

% Sliders thrown
2007: 6.2
2008: 6.1
2009: 9.2

Yeah the last 2 seasons he's gotten alot worse. He's throwing alot more fastballs and doesn't even throw the splitter anymore which used to be a big K pitch for him on 0-2 & 1-2 counts. Why he stopped throwing it is beyond me. His slider isn't even good and never understood why he would start throwing more of them? You basically proved that he stopped throwing his Splitter and that's why he's not keeping hitters off balance.

In the last game I think he only threw like 2-3 sliders, everything was a fastball and he didn't throw a splitter.

bagwell368
10-13-2009, 01:13 PM
To point keep using age to point to decline indicates a pretty poor argument. Mo keeps trudging forward with a fluid motion and is showing very few signs or regression even at his age. Frankly it's dumbfounding. Papelbon has had shoulder issues and a lot of closer flame out by the time they'e 30. I certainly wouldn't use the ages of Mo, Papelbon, Broxton, or whomever to point to who will or won't be good nest season. I'd use the fact that Papelbon is showing signs of decline here and there and it's probably not going to bode well for his future.

Using one guy is not a good argument. Go back, like I did in the spring and pick 30 random closers at age 26-27 (from the 70's and 80's), and check what happens. My grouping was 50% retired or pitching mop up at at age 32.

Everyone that says we should keep him for two years and cash in the picks might not even see the picks.

Meanwhile if we trade him, those two picks a team could expect to get is part of the value we can get now - not full value, but a high fraction of it.

Rylinkus
10-13-2009, 01:19 PM
Using one guy is not a good argument. Go back, like I did in the spring and pick 30 random closers at age 26-27 (from the 70's and 80's), and check what happens. My grouping was 50% retired or pitching mop up at at age 32.

Everyone that says we should keep him for two years and cash in the picks might not even see the picks.

Meanwhile if we trade him, those two picks a team could expect to get is part of the value we can get now - not full value, but a high fraction of it.

I was referring to the posted who based his evaluations on who is better on age in the cases of Mo, Paps, and Broxton, not yourself. Obviously every player ages differently and to use age as the deciding factor on who is in decline and who isn't makes for a very poor argument.

donnie23
10-13-2009, 01:47 PM
If I were Boston, I would trade him and have Wagner close and Bard set-up in 2010. Having a good closer is important, but it's not worth paying what he will want. I'm sure the Mets will sign him when he hits FA anyways, they love to overpay for closers.

Pavelb1
10-13-2009, 01:54 PM
If I were Boston, I would trade him and have Wagner close and Bard set-up in 2010. Having a good closer is important, but it's not worth paying what he will want. I'm sure the Mets will sign him when he hits FA anyways, they love to overpay for closers.

Wagner's fine, though his playoff record is ERA 10.32 in 13 games. And Bard was abysmal on the road.

J-Loco
10-13-2009, 03:24 PM
I'm the biggest Pap basher on the Sox board (w/ the stats to back me up - and I started to agitate against him in '08), but, all that said if he went to a minor league (the NL) he'd probably blow Mo off the map all time.

I think you may be going crazy from your sweeping loss to the Angels. This is the most untrue statement I have ever heard outside of "Obama is going to be good for this country".

J-Loco
10-13-2009, 03:27 PM
Same reason you haven't seen Joba do it in awhile.

I guess the difference is Joba still has the chance to do it and Paps only has a chance to see him do it on TV or as a fan in the stands.

Norieaga
10-13-2009, 04:05 PM
I never said he lost the playoffs for the Sox.
I know, I was speaking to those who did.

He is not still elite. If his '06 and '07 seasons are elite (and they are IMO) then '08 and '09 are not. He is down trending in many areas: WHIP, K/BB, BB/9, clean innings, BA, OBP, SLG. Go read the stats for yourself.

A closer with a 1.85ERA and 1.15WHIP is elite, my friend. That's a shutdown closer. And I'm not sure I buy your "he's declining" argument; he improved this year over last. And heck, his '09 season had some similarities to his '07. The other thing is, Papelbon went from being unreal to just elite. Its not like he went from being elite to just good. His k rate is still 10+ so his stuff there. The only worry I see is the opponents' BA of .289 and his high walk rate, but again the stuff is still there so he can settle and improve on that. He IS declining, yes, but its not the type of decline that is very common.

His shoulder is very well undersood, and very touchy, he cannot pitch on as many consecutive days, or a group of days as almost any other closer. About 50% of the guys who are closing at age 26-27 and either retired or doing mop up by age 32. If we sign Wagner for two years, Wagner and Bard is good enough to hold the farm, while we deal Paps as part of a larger deal to get us an elite 1B (AGON is my choice). Not I did not say Paps to SD, or the kids we get would get Agon - part of the deal.

Are you satisfied with the Sox offense in 2010 with the addition of say Blalock and Barajas?

He will have the offseason to heal his shoulder. As for the offense, I'm not quite sure who I'd be satisfied with. But changes must be made.



No **** sherlock, it was a joke. I know, I was pulling your leg.
In bold.

Pavelb1
10-13-2009, 04:10 PM
I guess the difference is Joba still has the chance to do it and Paps only has a chance to see him do it on TV or as a fan in the stands.

Different? Yes. Relevent to the topic? No.

bagwell368
10-13-2009, 04:32 PM
I think you may be going crazy from your sweeping loss to the Angels. This is the most untrue statement I have ever heard outside of "Obama is going to be good for this country".

it was obviously an over the top statement to draw attention to the idiocy of the original poster. guess you got caught on the fly paper.

Lil Rhody
10-13-2009, 04:50 PM
hope its high so we can trade him for a big bat

JVene
10-13-2009, 05:06 PM
hope its high so we can trade him for a big bat
There is no team out there that will give up a decent bat for Pap. You Boston Fans think your going to trade him for Prince Fielder or him and Bucholz for King Felix. You guys must be joking. Your franchise is going down fast and if you dont start spending money to get the elite free agents like the yankees you wont keep up.

I know John Henry has plenty of money and if he was smart he would get a new park built for you guys. You may have history in your park now but your missing out on tens of millions of dollars every year by not upgrading.

mkrozansky
10-13-2009, 05:06 PM
[QUOTE=Tragedy;11061059]Really...No where NEAR a top 5 Closer?

Mariano
Nathan
Soria
Hoffman
Papelbon

Who else pushes Papelbon far away from being even close to a top 5? :laugh2:QUOTE]

To me these are the top 5 closers in baseball:

1. Rivera
2. Nathan
3. K-Rod
4. Broxton
5. Soria

Papelbon doesn't make me top 5 because he seems like the only time he is concentrated on the task at hand is when he has runners on the corner with no one out or bases loaded and 1 out. Also hoffman doesn't make my top 5 because he to me doesn't seem like a dominated closer anymore. Even though he is the all-time save leader, i have always thought he is overated.

bagwell368
10-13-2009, 08:45 PM
A closer with a 1.85ERA and 1.15WHIP is elite

Papelbon's stats the past 4 years:

WHIP: .77, .77, .95, 1.15 (getting less elite)
BB/9: 1.7, 2.3, 1.0, 3.2 (ditto)
K/BB: 5.7, 5.6, 9.6, 3.1 (ugh)
OBP: .211, .219, .245, .289 (ditto)
SLG: .254, .244, .315, .311 (ditto)
FIP: 2.14, 2.45, 2.01, 3.05 (big slip in '09)
tRA: 2.13, 2.23, 2.51, 3.56 (ugh, big slip in '09)
WAR: 3.2, 2.2, 3.0, 1.9 (ouch, sell him now!)

Unh hunh.... the trends are almost all uniformly down, so he is less elite then he used to be - period.

2009 closers w/ WHIP at/under 1.15:

Andrew Bailey - 0.86
Mariano Rivera - 0.91
Trevor Hoffman - 0.91
Joe Nathan - 0.93
Jon Broxton - 0.96
Jason Fasor - 1.02
Rafael Soriano - 1.06
Heath Bell - 1.12
Frank Francisco - 1.12
Joakim Soria - 1.13
Jose Valverde - 1.13
George Sherrill - 1.14
Chad Qualls - 1.15

13 guys ahead, or tied w/ Paps for WHIP. How can 14 out of 30 guys be held to be "elite"? Almost all the others fell between 1.16 - and 1.4. No sir, Papelbon is now average.

Interestingly w/ his numbers from 2006 and 2007, he'd be #1, in 2008 he'd have been 5th, but in 2009 he is 14th, and you still insist he is elite?

Maybe you need to look the word up.

TheShock45
10-13-2009, 09:05 PM
nothing theyve been down on him since he said he would play for the yankees

i can see papelbon in LA with the dodgers he probly have fun there

Norieaga
10-14-2009, 08:47 AM
You do realize its entirely possible that he's just having a down year? The only thing "average" about him is the .OBA and BB/9. But again, his stuff is still there so this is something he can improve on. Also, what's his BABIP?

ShinobiNYC
10-14-2009, 08:52 AM
nothing theyve been down on him since he said he would play for the yankees

As a future FA, he would be dumb to say no to the Yankees as a possibilty. I think even most Red Sox fans understand the businees part of the game.

mser58
10-14-2009, 09:12 AM
Papelbon is crapelbon

EricU812
10-14-2009, 10:26 AM
If I were looking to trade Papelbon, I wouldn't advertise him as a closer, because typically they have little value.

Instead, I would advertise him as a the starting pitching prospect that he was supposed to be. I might even say things that Papelbon wants to be a starter in this league, and our rotation is too deep. We just want to give him a chance to be a starter, so we are asking for top tier starting prospect in return.

dodgerdave
10-14-2009, 10:54 AM
nothing theyve been down on him since he said he would play for the yankees

i can see papelbon in LA with the dodgers he probly have fun there

How will he displace Jonathan Broxton? I don't see that happening.

Southsideheat
10-14-2009, 11:07 AM
He's a one pitch pitcher, im surprised he's done this well. So i guess my answer is not so much.

runnermjr1296
10-14-2009, 12:12 PM
Just by browsing the red sox forum you can see red sox nation is not a fan of Papelbon. The dissapointing loss today defitantly didnt help. Regular stats tend to make Papelbon look top 5, but is he really that good? Sabermetrics arent particulary favoring him. How good of a closer is Papelbon? And what would you offer to acquire him?

love that picture of the goat horns!

TheShock45
10-14-2009, 04:02 PM
How will he displace Jonathan Broxton? I don't see that happening.

im just saying theres not many teams he will fit on, he's a big name and likes to have fun his only true fits would be los angeles and maybe the phillies but he allready said no to the phils haha i wonder if his thoughts on that have changed

MDfootball36
10-14-2009, 05:36 PM
hes not worth the time of day

Imperial
10-14-2009, 05:52 PM
Papelbon's stats the past 4 years:

WHIP: .77, .77, .95, 1.15 (getting less elite)
BB/9: 1.7, 2.3, 1.0, 3.2 (ditto)
K/BB: 5.7, 5.6, 9.6, 3.1 (ugh)
OBP: .211, .219, .245, .289 (ditto)
SLG: .254, .244, .315, .311 (ditto)
FIP: 2.14, 2.45, 2.01, 3.05 (big slip in '09)
tRA: 2.13, 2.23, 2.51, 3.56 (ugh, big slip in '09)
WAR: 3.2, 2.2, 3.0, 1.9 (ouch, sell him now!)

Unh hunh.... the trends are almost all uniformly down, so he is less elite then he used to be - period.

2009 closers w/ WHIP at/under 1.15:

Andrew Bailey - 0.86
Mariano Rivera - 0.91
Trevor Hoffman - 0.91
Joe Nathan - 0.93
Jon Broxton - 0.96
Jason Fasor - 1.02
Rafael Soriano - 1.06
Heath Bell - 1.12
Frank Francisco - 1.12
Joakim Soria - 1.13
Jose Valverde - 1.13
George Sherrill - 1.14
Chad Qualls - 1.15

13 guys ahead, or tied w/ Paps for WHIP. How can 14 out of 30 guys be held to be "elite"? Almost all the others fell between 1.16 - and 1.4. No sir, Papelbon is now average.

Interestingly w/ his numbers from 2006 and 2007, he'd be #1, in 2008 he'd have been 5th, but in 2009 he is 14th, and you still insist he is elite?

Maybe you need to look the word up.

One bad year means nothing for relievers. The sample sizes are tiny. Besides, in the second half of this year Papelbon rebounded and performed above his career averages in H/9, BB/9, K/9, WHIP and pretty much every other stat you could think of.

You probably said the same stuff about Mariano Rivera being in decline when he had a 3.15 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 2007. Look how that one turned out. I think people forget that we're talking about 60-80 inning sample sizes here. You're going to see lots of variation just because it's such a small sample size.

But when it comes down to it, how many closer can you name that have had better stats than Papelbon the last 3 years? Now I don't think closers are all that valuable. But as far as they go, Papelbon's easily one of best ones in baseball.

Zmaster52
10-14-2009, 06:12 PM
he's one of the best closers in the majors. his attitude is the problem

bagwell368
10-14-2009, 08:53 PM
You probably said the same stuff about Mariano Rivera being in decline when he had a 3.15 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 2007. Look how that one turned out.

What a tool. I bet your wet nurse dropped you on your head. --- That's as on topic a comment as this idiot quip of yours.

One bad year means nothing for RP? What a you some zen relativist? It doesn't really matter that the man died, Mrs. Smith, the sample size wasn't large enough.

Oh, now it's a 3 year sample sizes? You were arguing yesterday that 2009 wasn't really a decline year, and then later in the day that 2008 was his best year. Just keep trying new arguments, maybe one will stick and impress someone.

BronxBomb
10-14-2009, 09:50 PM
The Sox have to keep him. They cant afford to go into the season with a question mark at closer, which Bard, Wagner, or any FA would be...

That said even if he is in decline he's still better than most. The Sox cant get value for him but I could see them not wanting to give him a long term contract he is sure to be looking for when he is a FA.

Barack
10-14-2009, 10:24 PM
Really...No where NEAR a top 5 Closer?

Mariano
Nathan
Soria
Hoffman
Papelbon

Who else pushes Papelbon far away from being even close to a top 5? :laugh2:



Broxton (according to ESPN is 3rd in the race for cy young)
heath bell (bell is 5th)
brian fuentes

all good options

76YazwSideburns
10-14-2009, 11:24 PM
Broxton (according to ESPN is 3rd in the race for cy young)
heath bell (bell is 5th)
brian fuentes

all good options

Fuentes..........You've got a great sense of humor.

i.got.the.nutz
10-15-2009, 02:28 AM
Broxton (according to ESPN is 3rd in the race for cy young)
heath bell (bell is 5th)
brian fuentes

all good options

:facepalm:

And I'm an Angels fan.

Barack
10-15-2009, 03:15 AM
fuentes is 8th in cy young ahead of weaver and beckett.. and ahead of paps

bagwell368
10-15-2009, 09:59 AM
fuentes is 8th in cy young ahead of weaver and beckett.. and ahead of paps

Just shows you nimrods that vote using saves as a major criteria should not vote.

As much as I think Paps is overrated, he's way better then BF.

If you want to see how stupid voting for awards can be, see Derek Jeter winning Gold Gloves prior to 2009 (a year he did well in BTW).

Maintain This
10-15-2009, 11:45 AM
As a Sox fan I would love to move him if we can get something good in return and then move Daniel Bard to the closers role.

Bard isn't nearly close to having the composure necessary to be a closer.... he needs a couple more years of grooming. Just because he throws hard does not mean he can jump right into the closer role

bagwell368
10-15-2009, 01:46 PM
Bard isn't nearly close to having the composure necessary to be a closer.... he needs a couple more years of grooming. Just because he throws hard does not mean he can jump right into the closer role

Oh sure... he's got as much or more "composure" then Pap Smear when he was handed the job. So have a lot of other guys that got the job around the Majors. Do you have a real actual fact to note?

ccspence8
10-15-2009, 05:30 PM
fuentes is 8th in cy young ahead of weaver and beckett.. and ahead of paps

Yeah and Alex Gonzalez is the only Red Sox on the infield without a Gold Glove. People voting never know what they're talking about...that's why Jeter is always in the running for MVP, Michael Young always gets a Gold Glove but his team moves him to 3B lol, and David Ortiz hit 20 more HR than Justin Morneau but didn't win the MVP in 06 he finished 3rd behind Jeter?!

Nevermind all the All Star snubs every yr. C'mon Tim Wakefield making the All Star team?

If I was to rank Closers: Papelbon is in the top 5. Don't forget he pitches in the AL East.

ccspence8
10-15-2009, 05:33 PM
Bard isn't nearly close to having the composure necessary to be a closer.... he needs a couple more years of grooming. Just because he throws hard does not mean he can jump right into the closer role

This isn't Craig Hansen we're talkin about. This kid has control, velocity and mound presence. He was lights out in the playoffs and anytime he went to finish a game. He gets out of tight jams most of the time.

Personally, I'd like to wait 1 more yr before we have him close and use Wagner. But if Wagner retires and we trade Papelbon u bet he's gonna be the closer, and if anything goes wrong Saito & Okajima will be there to back him up.

BeantownBill
10-15-2009, 05:50 PM
Didn't he have more than one bad game this season? :shrug:


Don"t all pitchers who make a decent number of appearances?

Tribe
10-16-2009, 04:38 AM
Papelbon for Kerry Wood...straight up?

Try and work the change of scenery angle...maybe throw in a josh rodriguez or barfield someone of that caliber from the minors