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View Full Version : Hollinger PER Projections 2009-2010 (Top 15)



JordansBulls
10-05-2009, 05:17 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/rankings




1. Chris Paul 2009-10 Projected PER: 29.51
League Average Comparison: +14.51
2008-09 PER: 30.04

2009-10 outlook: Paul's numbers have improved in each of his four seasons, and the projection tool I use says to plan on a fifth: It has Paul, not LeBron Jame ... Complete Profile


2. Dwyane Wade 2009-10 Projected PER: 28.90
League Average Comparison: +13.90
2008-09 PER: 30.46

2009-10 outlook: It's a big year for both Wade and the Heat, as he can opt out of his contract and become a free agent after the season. Speculation will run ... Complete Profile

3. LeBron James 2009-10 Projected PER: 28.45
League Average Comparison: +13.45
2008-09 PER: 31.76

2009-10 outlook: James posted the third-best PER of the post-merger era last season, and the amazing part is that he did it while shooting 34.4 percent on 3s ... Complete Profile


4. Dwight Howard 2009-10 Projected PER: 24.43
League Average Comparison: +9.43
2008-09 PER: 25.44

2009-10 outlook: Howard is the game's best center and continues to improve; it's easy to forget that he entered the league out of high school and is only 23 y ... Complete Profile


5. Kevin Durant 2009-10 Projected PER: 23.50
League Average Comparison: +8.50
2008-09 PER: 20.85

2009-10 outlook: Durant projects to lead the league in points per 40 minutes and to log one of the league's largest PER increases, a sentiment that most obse ... Complete Profile


6. Al Jefferson 2009-10 Projected PER: 23.05
League Average Comparison: +8.05
2008-09 PER: 23.16

2009-10 outlook: Jefferson wasn't overly dependent on his athleticism before the injury; his talent was his coordination for his size, and that shouldn't be a ... Complete Profile


7. Dirk Nowitzki 2009-10 Projected PER: 22.97
League Average Comparison: +7.97
2008-09 PER: 23.20

2009-10 outlook: Although he's no spring chicken, Nowitzki's game is likely to age extremely well. Size and shooting ability are the two biggest determinants ... Complete Profile


8. Andrew Bynum 2009-10 Projected PER: 22.82
League Average Comparison: +7.82
2008-09 PER: 20.03

2009-10 outlook: Despite his struggles in the postseason, my projection system likes Bynum this season. Actually, it REALLY likes him, projecting him to lead ... Complete Profile


9. Chris Bosh 2009-10 Projected PER: 22.80
League Average Comparison: +7.80
2008-09 PER: 22.18

2009-10 outlook: Bosh can opt out of his contract and become a free agent after the season. Oh, you've heard? ... Complete Profile


10. Kobe Bryant 2009-10 Projected PER: 22.65
League Average Comparison: +7.65
2008-09 PER: 24.46

2009-10 outlook: First, the bad news: Declines in free throw rate are a fairly ominous canary in the coal mine, and Bryant is 31 with a lot of mileage on his ... Complete Profile


11. Brandon Roy 2009-10 Projected PER: 22.56
League Average Comparison: +7.56
2008-09 PER: 24.08

2009-10 outlook: There's no reason Roy can't repeat last season's output; his numbers don't look the slightest bit fluky. In fact, he could probably shoot the ... Complete Profile


12. Tim Duncan 2009-10 Projected PER: 22.10
League Average Comparison: +7.10
2008-09 PER: 24.50

2009-10 outlook: The big question is how much the knees will limit Duncan, because he was a lesser player by the end of last season. The Spurs will take a kid ... Complete Profile


13. Tony Parker 2009-10 Projected PER: 21.85
League Average Comparison: +6.85
2008-09 PER: 23.47

2009-10 outlook: The Spurs won't repeat the Tony-on-five offense they ran at the end of last season, and Parker is unlikely to shoot as well on long 2s even i ... Complete Profile


14. Manu Ginobili 2009-10 Projected PER: 21.75
League Average Comparison: +6.75
2008-09 PER: 22.93

2009-10 outlook: Ginobili turned 32 in July, and his collision-heavy playing style doesn't offer a great prescription for longevity. Given how well he played ... Complete Profile


15. Pau Gasol 2009-10 Projected PER: 20.96
League Average Comparison: +5.96
2008-09 PER: 22.31

2009-10 outlook: Gasol's rock-solid, year-to-year consistency translates into a predictably narrow range for his numbers this season. He'll average 20 points ... Complete Profile

Hawkeye15
10-05-2009, 05:19 PM
I just loved the fact that Kevin Love was #20.

Chacarron
10-05-2009, 05:36 PM
3 Lakers in the Top 15! I like that.

Chronz
10-05-2009, 06:05 PM
People who say insider isnt worth the money dont know what theyre talking about. From strictly a monetary standpoint, it pays for itself with Hollingers forecasts. Whether you like him or not, in the real world, the man has sold alot of books and his annual forecasts alone used to run near 20bucks IIRC. Maybe 12.95, anyways the fact that its free for insiders is a privilege that is not lost on me.

ManRam
10-05-2009, 06:13 PM
Pretty safe list. I don't see LeBron being unseeded though...especially with Shaq in fold (I don't believe the whole Shaq "clogging" up the lane theory at all, not like every other slow footed big man he's ever had didn't before hand). He'll take some pressure off him, and allow for a little more space to shoot.

And I'm a Hollinger fan too...like Chronz. Big time.

And Kevin Love is the best offensive rebounder in the game, one of the best overall (#3 per 48). He's going to get better, there will be a little less pressure with Jefferson improving, Johnny Flynn running the point...so on and so on. I think 20 might be a stretch, but if his FG% increases (great FT shooter), I wouldn't be completely shocked. Great role player.

sp1derm00
10-05-2009, 07:13 PM
I like how Bynum's PER is expected to skyrocket, but I don't like how Kobe's is expected to decline so drastically. I don't see Bynum becoming a more efficient player than Pau. Not gonna happen.

Kobe's drop in free throw rate was because of his switch over to a pull-up jump shooter more than a slasher. This year, he plans on utilizing what he learned from The Dream along with his pull-ups... he's gonna get his free throw rate back.

As for Lebron being #3, I don't think it'll happen. He might be #2 behind Wade if Wade has a dream season, but Chris Paul isn't taking #1 or 2 unless Wade is injured.

blackjack_119
10-05-2009, 07:22 PM
I like how Bynum's PER is expected to skyrocket, but I don't like how Kobe's is expected to decline so drastically. I don't see Bynum becoming a more efficient player than Pau. Not gonna happen.

Kobe's drop in free throw rate was because of his switch over to a pull-up jump shooter more than a slasher. This year, he plans on utilizing what he learned from The Dream along with his pull-ups... he's gonna get his free throw rate back.

As for Lebron being #3, I don't think it'll happen. He might be #2 behind Wade if Wade has a dream season, but Chris Paul isn't taking #1 or 2 unless Wade is injured.

A drop in PER from 24 to 22 is drastic?

ManRam
10-05-2009, 07:25 PM
I like how Bynum's PER is expected to skyrocket, but I don't like how Kobe's is expected to decline so drastically. I don't see Bynum becoming a more efficient player than Pau. Not gonna happen.

Kobe's drop in free throw rate was because of his switch over to a pull-up jump shooter more than a slasher. This year, he plans on utilizing what he learned from The Dream along with his pull-ups... he's gonna get his free throw rate back.

As for Lebron being #3, I don't think it'll happen. He might be #2 behind Wade if Wade has a dream season, but Chris Paul isn't taking #1 or 2 unless Wade is injured.

Kobe has never racked up huge PERs. He's been above 26 twice (barely twice, one time it was 28). 24.6 would actually be above his career average. He doesn't rack up the hugh PERs because he doesn't excel at rebounding, or passing as much as the guys above him. He's solid at both, but great at neither. His FG% is also significantly lower than his competition.

PER favors inside scorers more than perimeter ones. FG% seems a bit heavily weighted. I love PER, but it has it's flaws. Anything that ranks Kobe outside the top 2 or 3 as an individual has to be slightly flawed.

But Bynum that high up is ridiculous.

Toenail Clipper
10-05-2009, 07:26 PM
Bynum?!
Ridiculous!

sp1derm00
10-05-2009, 07:36 PM
Kobe has never racked up huge PERs. He's been above 26 twice (barely twice, one time it was 28). 24.6 would actually be above his career average. He doesn't rack up the hugh PERs because he doesn't excel at rebounding, or passing as much as the guys above him. He's solid at both, but great at neither. His FG% is also significantly lower than his competition.

PER favors inside scorers more than perimeter ones. FG% seems a bit heavily weighted. I love PER, but it has it's flaws. Anything that ranks Kobe outside the top 2 or 3 as an individual has to be slightly flawed.

But Bynum that high up is ridiculous.

The reason I say that Kobe's PER drop is ridiculous is because Kobe's pull-up game got incredibly better, but he realizes that with age, he needs to post up more. Kobe is the kind of player that draws fouls easily as long as there is some contact... and posting up involves a lot of contact. He will get his free throw rate up, and he will be an overall more efficient player because of his post moves.

Hawkeye15
10-05-2009, 07:53 PM
Pretty safe list. I don't see LeBron being unseeded though...especially with Shaq in fold (I don't believe the whole Shaq "clogging" up the lane theory at all, not like every other slow footed big man he's ever had didn't before hand). He'll take some pressure off him, and allow for a little more space to shoot.

And I'm a Hollinger fan too...like Chronz. Big time.

And Kevin Love is the best offensive rebounder in the game, one of the best overall (#3 per 48). He's going to get better, there will be a little less pressure with Jefferson improving, Johnny Flynn running the point...so on and so on. I think 20 might be a stretch, but if his FG% increases (great FT shooter), I wouldn't be completely shocked. Great role player.

I ithink with portions of the triangle, and Love's smarts, he will grow big time. I easily see about 14/10.5 this season, with good %, and free throw attempts out the ***

Hawkeye15
10-05-2009, 07:55 PM
The reason I say that Kobe's PER drop is ridiculous is because Kobe's pull-up game got incredibly better, but he realizes that with age, he needs to post up more. Kobe is the kind of player that draws fouls easily as long as there is some contact... and posting up involves a lot of contact. He will get his free throw rate up, and he will be an overall more efficient player because of his post moves.

but his rebounds will continue to drop, and this year, with Artest, Gasol, and Bynum healthy possibly, his posessions may even slightly drop. It is easily possible he drops to around 22. But, the Lakers don't need him to do the things Wade, LeBron, and Paul do, so it isn't a slap on Kobe.

TannerOwnsDevin
10-05-2009, 08:03 PM
Bynum @ #9

:facepalm:

GoatMilk
10-05-2009, 08:08 PM
lol
everyone always brings up PER to shoot down kobe

now that Bynum is top 10 this ish is garbage right?

TannerOwnsDevin
10-05-2009, 08:13 PM
lol
everyone always brings up PER to shoot down kobe

now that Bynum is top 10 this ish is garbage right?

to be fair, its just a projection.

JNA17
10-05-2009, 08:15 PM
even as a lakers fan i find it pretty damn funny that Bynum is projected to be number 8 in PERs :laugh:

Chronz
10-05-2009, 08:48 PM
Kobe has never racked up huge PERs. He's been above 26 twice (barely twice, one time it was 28). 24.6 would actually be above his career average. He doesn't rack up the hugh PERs because he doesn't excel at rebounding, or passing as much as the guys above him. He's solid at both, but great at neither. His FG% is also significantly lower than his competition.

PER favors inside scorers more than perimeter ones. FG% seems a bit heavily weighted. I love PER, but it has it's flaws. Anything that ranks Kobe outside the top 2 or 3 as an individual has to be slightly flawed.

But Bynum that high up is ridiculous.

Actually it favors high usage players over efficient ones, so it should help Kobes ratings but the facts are for someone who usually makes the safe pass that leads to the assist, and for someone who relies heavily on his midrange game, he has a very high turnover rate, its the main thing that separates MJ from any star swing of our era. He had a microscopic turnover rate. I blame Kobes tiny hands, he often loses his handle even when hes faking)

Throughout a regular season marathon, Kobe is not the best player in the league. Hes just not, he paces himself perfectly and is able to suit up for 82games a year because of it, but come playoff time, is when Kobe makes his case as the games best. And his game isnt entirely measured by stats, so you cant blame a statistical evaluator for that.

theuuord
10-05-2009, 08:53 PM
Bynum's projection that high isn't that surprising. He's put up PER similar to that in the time he hasn't been injured. If he can play a full season that's probably what it will look like.

SteveNash
10-05-2009, 09:07 PM
Adam Morrison projected to be the worse player in the league, seems about right.

ko8e24
10-05-2009, 09:56 PM
Kobe has never racked up huge PERs. He's been above 26 twice (barely twice, one time it was 28). 24.6 would actually be above his career average. He doesn't rack up the hugh PERs because he doesn't excel at rebounding, or passing as much as the guys above him. He's solid at both, but great at neither. His FG% is also significantly lower than his competition.

PER favors inside scorers more than perimeter ones. FG% seems a bit heavily weighted. I love PER, but it has it's flaws. Anything that ranks Kobe outside the top 2 or 3 as an individual has to be slightly flawed.

But Bynum that high up is ridiculous.

:rolleyes:

69centers
10-06-2009, 10:04 AM
even as a lakers fan i find it pretty damn funny that Bynum is projected to be number 8 in PERs :laugh:

Yes, the Bynum prediction pretty much sinks this list's credibility.

Teeboy1487
10-06-2009, 10:25 AM
Bynum being higher than Pau is a travesty. Pau is the most efficient player on our team. He does not force shots, rebounds well, good passer, and his field goal percentage is always high. I don't know what Hollinger was thinking when he did this list. He needs to revise this list.

Hawkeye15
10-06-2009, 10:32 AM
I think Pau is a bit low too, but Hollinger is predicting that Bynum actually stays on the floor, and the Lakers reduce Pau's minutes. I still see him in the mid 21's though for PER.

Hellcrooner
10-06-2009, 11:39 AM
i love how this dude birngs up bynum , jefferson or manu.....

you need to be healthy to do any kind of per

and al thee have to porve they indeed are healthy


im sure at least 2 of the trheee miss a signinficant number of gqames

Hawkeye15
10-06-2009, 11:51 AM
i love how this dude birngs up bynum , jefferson or manu.....

you need to be healthy to do any kind of per

and al thee have to porve they indeed are healthy


im sure at least 2 of the trheee miss a signinficant number of gqames

Jefferson has never been hurt, until a legit injury last season. He is back to normal from what I understand. Bynum has had a couple freak injuries, but he does fit that category of needing to prove he can shake that bad luck bug. Manu, has a lot of wear and tear, he for sure fits that category.

Raph12
10-06-2009, 12:00 PM
Nice list, but Bynum over Kobe and Gasol... idk about that

We'll just have to wait and see I guess