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View Full Version : ESPN: Summer Forecast: Best newcomer



JordansBulls
08-25-2009, 05:49 PM
Source: ESPN (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=OffseasonPredictions09-BestNewcomer)




Jefferson (14 votes)
The first big move of the offseason will prove to be the best move, more than one-quarter of our voters said. RJ is the piece that will get the Spurs back into the West's elite. Jefferson's shooting numbers were down last season with the Bucks, but he shot 40 percent from beyond the arc and still knows how to score. Playing in a winning atmosphere certainly will help matters, too.

Most important, perhaps, is that RJ has been healthy for the past two years -- something the Spurs' big three has not been -- and he's still on the right side of 30. If he proves to be the perfect fit, the Spurs could push the Lakers for the Western Conference crown.


O'Neal (8 votes)
Witness this: Seven of our voters -- and Cleveland's front office -- are banking on a motivated Shaq to take the Cavs to new heights. Although some wonder whether Shaq can take a backseat to LeBron or handle Dwight Howard come playoff time, there's no question there's still some Diesel left in the tank. Adding his post presence to a team that won 66 games last season without one makes Shaq's mission -- "Win a ring for the King" -- look highly possible.

Artest (6 votes)
To gain this honor, Artest is in a tough spot. When you join the defending champs, there are plenty of opportunities for downward mobility. Ordinary things can derail any title favorite (hello, injuries), perhaps a far more likely event than Ron-Ron Twittering Kobe & Co. into a funk. But with his drive and focus to earn a first title, it could be time to paint the portrait of Artest as a champion.


Carter (6 votes)
All things considered, many of the voters here eventually could rue not hopping onto this bandwagon. Although the "Heir Jordan" references vanished long ago, the numbers indicate Carter will be an upgrade over Turkoglu. So the Magic lose some length? How about VC's many strengths, such as his still-powerful forays to the hoop? Think his solid 3-point accuracy (38.5 percent) with the woeful Nets last season will improve when he plays alongside the best big man in the game?

Marion (3 votes)
Sure, he's coming off his lowest scoring average (12.9 points per game) since his rookie season, but there are three good reasons Marion earned three votes: (1) He should enjoy life in the fast lane again, this time with Jason Kidd running the break; (2) he can still defend multiple positions; and (3) there's no way he can shoot any worse from downtown than he did last season (19 percent).

Miller (3 votes)
The Blazers wanted Turkoglu, but landing Miller might be a blessing in disguise. He gives the team a veteran presence and, more importantly, allows Brandon Roy to play off the ball. Although he can't spread the floor with his 3-point shot, he can get the ball into the hands of those who can shoot it from deep and get the team easy baskets in transition. And if it doesn't work out, Portland can let him walk in two years.

Turkoglu (3 votes)
Turkoglu provided the best offseason intrigue when he nearly signed with Portland and then, at the eleventh hour, opted for Toronto. He gives the Raptors a sense of the dramatic on the court, too: His late-game heroics were special in the '09 playoffs. Yes, $53 million is a lot for a guy who shot only 41 percent from the floor (110th in the NBA) and 35 percent from behind the arc (95th) last season, but he'll take some pressure off Chris Bosh and maybe even persuade him to stay.

Wallace (3 votes)
No doubt Wallace needed a change of scenery after five years in Detroit. Boston is probably the perfect place for him now. He'll get to start fresh with a title contender loaded with veterans. Sheed will play a smaller role than he did with the Pistons, but he still needs to get in shape and keep his emotions in check. Either way, he is a considerable upgrade over Mikki Moore.

Gibby23
08-25-2009, 05:57 PM
I would put Carter alone at 3rd, Artest at 4th and Wallace 5th.

Chronz
08-25-2009, 06:13 PM
They will regret more than a few of these thats for sure, not because they are idiots because Im sure a few heads in here will make that claim about ESPN. But Id be willing to wager the youngsters that got honorable mention will outshine the older guys.

smith&wesson
08-25-2009, 06:15 PM
RJ being over rated much ?? he was the main go to guy on the bucks last season and somehow he managed to drop in production ?? RJ is hardley worth talking about when he was in the east, now that he is in the west he is capable of lifting the spurs to compete with the lakers ?? plssssssss.... that bs.

i dont know if anyone realizes how crucial of a pick up rasheed was for the celtics. boston. was with out garnet last year and was still pretty good. 2nd round of the playoffs. now with a healthy garnet and rasheed too ?? plus you add perkins thats a scary front line for the celtics. i think they will be back in the finals this year.

shaq was a big pick up for clevland but no one knows how that will pan out..

orlando, well orlando just keeps getting better and better and better.

ManRam
08-25-2009, 07:22 PM
I actually like the list. I think RJ will thrive in SA. I think Shaq will help Cleveland out a ton, especially vs. the Magic. I think the expectations for Artest and the Lakers are nothing short of winning it all again...so he can easily become a failure if that doesn't happen. So I'd have VC all alone at three...and Hedo at 5.

Chronz
08-25-2009, 07:34 PM
RJ being over rated much ?? he was the main go to guy on the bucks last season and somehow he managed to drop in production ?? RJ is hardley worth talking about when he was in the east, now that he is in the west he is capable of lifting the spurs to compete with the lakers ?? plssssssss.... that bs.
Somehow? You make it seem as if it doesnt happen. This whole 1st option or 2nd option idea needs to stop. It interferes with what should be valued in a players production. CONTEXT, saying 1st or 2nd option is too vague a concept to have this much significance. Not every teams 1st option carries as big a load, hell some 3rd options have carried bigger loads than first option players offensively. Im not saying its irrelevant just that what matter more is the actual load he carries and how his teammates compliment him.

Everyone has their own bias to what good production consists of, but for RJ his abilty to play 100% of his games the past 2 seasons would be of great relief to the teams core, even if that number drops somewhat. You act is if the Spurs were some middle dwelling team that needs a Pau type player to reach the Finals, they were a playoff team without Manu, they are semi contenders with Manu, and now the idea is that RJ's the guy to make them legit contenders. The jump from semi to legit doesnt take awhole lot.

Besides if youve followed RJ's career youd know he was at his best when he was the third guy (yes theres my option reference). Alongside Kidd and Vince he was great, on his own he was shat, but his usage % actually went down this year compared to last.

smith&wesson
08-25-2009, 08:00 PM
Besides if youve followed RJ's career youd know he was at his best when he was the third guy (yes theres my option reference). Alongside Kidd and Vince he was great, on his own he was shat, but his usage % actually went down this year compared to last.[/QUOTE]

actually i have followed his career, while every one praises him for playing 2 seasons, three seasons ago he was injured and hardley played. he couldnt help new jersey get over the hump even as a third option they were still ****.
there was a time 2 seasons ago where he was almost third in scoring but since then his numbers havent even been close to what they were.

he went to the bucks where the offence was ran through him, and he flopped. wasnt a whole expected of his team because they were **** themselves, but as you said his production actually went down. sorry but jefferson wont be the guy to take the spurs back to the promice land. if they do get to go back the finals, it wont be because jeferson took them over the hump it will be because manu is healthy, parkers playing all star calibre ball, and duncans fully healthy as well.

he is aight, but he wont make the difference every one thinks he will. he is being way overated.

IBleedPurple
08-25-2009, 08:09 PM
Agreed that RJ is a being overrated for this vote. He isn't quite as good as advertised. Wallace will spread the floor for the big 3 in Boston, Artest will be great for LA, and Hedo will be decent for the Raptors while increasing their wins by zero games.

smith&wesson
08-25-2009, 08:20 PM
and for those who think jeffereson is such an iron man, you should know that
December 27, 2004. Jefferson ended up missing 49 games after rupturing a ligament in his left wrist

On January 21, 2007, Jefferson's knee was injured once again and decided to have ankle surgery. After missing around six weeks

and he averages 35 % from the three point line, that doesnt help

bigsams50
08-25-2009, 08:23 PM
and for those who think jeffereson is such an iron man, you should know that
December 27, 2004. Jefferson ended up missing 49 games after rupturing a ligament in his left wrist

On January 21, 2007, Jefferson's knee was injured once again and decided to have ankle surgery. After missing around six weeks

and he averages 35 % from the three point line, that doesnt help

y does his 3 point percentage matter?

Chronz
08-25-2009, 08:26 PM
actually i have followed his career, while every one praises him for playing 2 seasons, three seasons ago he was injured and hardley played. he couldnt help new jersey get over the hump even as a third option they were still ****.
Im confused, your blaming him for being injured? And what do you mean couldnt get New Jersey over the hump, they did as well as that team could be expected to do. Tell me one time they lost to a team they shouldnt have.


there was a time 2 seasons ago where he was almost third in scoring but since then his numbers havent even been close to what they were.

06-07 was the worst year of his career, his best season was 05-06 and he was no where near the top of the scoring charts.


he went to the bucks where the offence was ran through him, and he flopped.
Its hard to get a handle on that team because they had so many different lineups but towards the end of the year when Redd and Bogut were out, RJ put up #'s similar to the year prior. Overall however he actually accounted for less possessions than he did the year before.

The reason he may have flopped was because thats not the role hes meant to play. Unless your saying RJ's on a serious decline



wasnt a whole expected of his team because they were **** themselves, but as you said his production actually went down.
Youve yet to explain why this is such a mystery? Its not, of course his production went down. He wasnt in a role that plays to his strengths. Again his best seasons have come when hes been more of an afterthought, hes that kind of player who can maximize his efficiency with less touches. Thats precisely why the Spurs traded for him. Again this gos back to my 1st option rant. Alot of players have seen their production go down when becoming a teams forced focal point. Why are you allowing that to impact your decision making. Its not like thats the kind of player he will be in San Antonio, so why not compare his production in a similar setting, in a more similar role? Thats more likely to be the player we should expect.




sorry but jefferson wont be the guy to take the spurs back to the promice land. if they do get to go back the finals, it wont be because jeferson took them over the hump it will be because manu is healthy, parkers playing all star calibre ball, and duncans fully healthy as well.

he is aight, but he wont make the difference every one thinks he will. he is being way overated.

Are you saying that if they make the Finals RJ wont get credit? Obviously the players you mentioned get more, but nobody ever said anything about RJ being mentioned in that light. I dont think you understand what it is people are expecting RJ to do. Hes not brought in to be a savior. Hes brought in to help a semi contender become a legit contender.

Remember think about the player RJ will look like on that team, not the player that was forced to be a first option in your mind.

Shady66
08-25-2009, 08:27 PM
Jefferson doesnt have to be that go to scorer, if he puts up 15 a game shooting a good percentage thats enough. He doesnt have to be that 25 ppg scorer. Also shaq will not even be close to what he was last year, Nash set him up for almost all of his points.

D Roses Bulls
08-25-2009, 08:47 PM
im not going to argue about the list except say this..... shaq is not the second best new comer. he will not have that big of an impact, jefferson, carter, artest will have a much bigger impact thats if artest keeps his cool. shaq second is a joke

NYtilIdie
08-25-2009, 08:50 PM
I don't think Artest is going to be as great of a signing as people think.

He has caused problems every where he goes (last year him and T-Mac went at it). I don't expect the Laker's to win right away or dominant cause it will take time for them to get use to being on the court together.

People say Fisher and Kobe will keep him in check, but if Battier and Rick couldn't do it why can Kobe and Fish?

Regardless expect either Pau or Bynums stats to drop

smith&wesson
08-25-2009, 09:03 PM
Im confused, your blaming him for being injured? And what do you mean couldnt get New Jersey over the hump, they did as well as that team could be expected to do. Tell me one time they lost to a team they shouldnt have.


06-07 was the worst year of his career, his best season was 05-06 and he was no where near the top of the scoring charts.


Its hard to get a handle on that team because they had so many different lineups but towards the end of the year when Redd and Bogut were out, RJ put up #'s similar to the year prior. Overall however he actually accounted for less possessions than he did the year before.

The reason he may have flopped was because thats not the role hes meant to play. Unless your saying RJ's on a serious decline



Youve yet to explain why this is such a mystery? Its not, of course his production went down. He wasnt in a role that plays to his strengths. Again his best seasons have come when hes been more of an afterthought, hes that kind of player who can maximize his efficiency with less touches. Thats precisely why the Spurs traded for him. Again this gos back to my 1st option rant. Alot of players have seen their production go down when becoming a teams forced focal point. Why are you allowing that to impact your decision making. Its not like thats the kind of player he will be in San Antonio, so why not compare his production in a similar setting, in a more similar role? Thats more likely to be the player we should expect.




Are you saying that if they make the Finals RJ wont get credit? Obviously the players you mentioned get more, but nobody ever said anything about RJ being mentioned in that light. I dont think you understand what it is people are expecting RJ to do. Hes not brought in to be a savior. Hes brought in to help a semi contender become a legit contender.

Remember think about the player RJ will look like on that team, not the player that was forced to be a first option in your mind.


my thinking is when your a focal point on a team, plays are designed for you, you take more shots per game. you are right maybe because the bucks were soo terrible that he never found his role on that team. but I would think your numbers go up on a bad team where you carry more of the load rather then a team like sanantonio where you simply have to contribute.

RJ is a decent pick up, i dont think he was the most signifigant pick up in the off season. Sanantoniao needs shooters. manu and parkers game is based on driving the lanes, duncan can hit mid range shots but you really want him working the inside. san antonios offence is based on players who can shoot the 3 pointer well to open up the floor for the two drivers parker and manu, and also for duncan on the inside, hence horry, finley in the past.

rj is not that guy. he is just like manu but not as efficient. i dont want to sound like a hater, because he is a good player. I just dont know how much better he can make the spurs. i guess we will have to wait and see.

JordansBulls
08-25-2009, 11:41 PM
I don't see how Richard Jefferson will have a greater impact than Vince Carter?

RJ is like the 4th option while Vince is the 2nd option.

Raps18-19 Champ
08-25-2009, 11:49 PM
^

It isn't more of if you are the 2nd, 3rd or 4th option but how it helps you team in general.

Jefferson provides depth(They gained him for 3rd stringers), extra fire power, and extra insurance.

ctitus45
08-26-2009, 12:00 AM
RJ is just such a good fit for the Spurs. I'm not a Spurs fan by any means but watching them play for so many years, he is EXACTLY the kind of player that will help them succeed. He shuts his mouth and does what's asked of him. I think that has been taken into high consideration when doing this list. I think Carter will have an impact, but there will be times when he has to do the VC show and I think that could end up hurting the Magic. I don't see RJ doing that. I think Shaq will have a bit of that "i can still do it" disease and feel like he has to prove that he's still the center of all time. I think RJ is the best offseason pick up of the offseason thus far.

I think some of the overrated pickups are Artest, Turk, Shaq and Sheed.

mser58
08-26-2009, 12:07 AM
Jason Kapono

Chronz
08-26-2009, 02:15 AM
my thinking is when your a focal point on a team, plays are designed for you, you take more shots per game. you are right maybe because the bucks were soo terrible that he never found his role on that team. but I would think your numbers go up on a bad team where you carry more of the load rather then a team like sanantonio where you simply have to contribute.
Thats just not the way the game works, production is influence by a variety of issues, being on a bad team can make it harder for you to get yours because your also more of a focal point defensively etc... Several players have preached the same thing, it happens. Yes its a bad thing to see if you were signing RJ expecting him to carry your franchise, but if your looking for a complimentary piece next to your stars, hes as good of an addition as your going to find. You want a guy to do less for your team, his stats happen to go up when he has to do less, thus you win.


RJ is a decent pick up, i dont think he was the most signifigant pick up in the off season. Sanantoniao needs shooters. manu and parkers game is based on driving the lanes, duncan can hit mid range shots but you really want him working the inside. san antonios offence is based on players who can shoot the 3 pointer well to open up the floor for the two drivers parker and manu, and also for duncan on the inside, hence horry, finley in the past.

rj is not that guy. he is just like manu but not as efficient. i dont want to sound like a hater, because he is a good player. I just dont know how much better he can make the spurs. i guess we will have to wait and see.
Hes the best wing theyve ever paired next to Manu and TP FACT, RJ can shoot, I dont know where you got the idea he couldnt. Duncan has began taking more midrange shots, hes becoming more of an outlet option, for this you have to surround him with slashers as well. RJ can provide both. What he lacks is rebounding and consistent defense, but like every other player that joins the Spurs Im sure his defense will look much better there.

Chronz
08-26-2009, 02:15 AM
I don't see how Richard Jefferson will have a greater impact than Vince Carter?

RJ is like the 4th option while Vince is the 2nd option.

How do you know? But yea VC should play a bigger role, but hes on the wrong side of 30

JordansBulls
08-26-2009, 10:06 AM
How do you know? But yea VC should play a bigger role, but hes on the wrong side of 30

He still is much better than RJ.

Ace33Bone
08-26-2009, 10:21 AM
I think people are underrating the impact that Wallace will have in boston

ctitus45
08-26-2009, 10:32 AM
He still is much better than RJ.

individually yes. but I don't think the Spurs would thrive with Vince in their line-up the way they will with Jefferson. I also don't think the Magic would thrive with RJ in their lineup the way they will with Vince. It's all comes down to the system you're in.