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skinzys
08-25-2009, 12:01 PM
I think I know the answer to this, but is there anyway we can rid of Wells by taking other bad contracts like:
Alfonso Soriano, $136,000,000 (2007-14)
Todd Helton, $141,500,000 (2003-11)
Barry Zito, $126,000,000 (2007-13)
Carlos Lee, $100,000,000 (2007-12)

I would take on any of these contracts in heartbeat instead of:
Vernon Wells, $126,000,000 (2008-14)

Zaunnie
08-25-2009, 12:06 PM
Wells for Zito

Gunzito22
08-25-2009, 12:21 PM
I could actually see Wells for Helton... Colorado seems to be willing to take chances like that...

scotttube
08-25-2009, 01:49 PM
Funny thing is Wells' is actually way worse than any of those. Closest would be Zito but he has one less year and a lot less money left. Maybe Halladay and Wells for one of those is close to fair?

Eagles4Lyfe
08-25-2009, 02:07 PM
lol id take carlos lee a big power hitter that we can use i guess wells and someone for him would be good trade since astros need to start rebuilding

marcre
08-25-2009, 02:11 PM
Zito is horrible. I wouldn't take him for Wells. Zito would get lit up in the AL East.

brandonwarne52
08-25-2009, 02:14 PM
Your list should show how much they are owed. Not how much the deal was worth.

dman_39
08-25-2009, 02:34 PM
I think those are even worse than the Wells deal.

nstojic
08-25-2009, 02:36 PM
Maybe Halladay and Wells for one of those is close to fair?

in what universe is that 'close to fair'?

brandonwarne52
08-25-2009, 02:37 PM
I think those are even worse than the Wells deal.

No, they aren't.

As of the end of the year.....Wells will have been paid 2 million dollars of that deal ("signing bonus" notwithstanding).

That's right. 2.

marcre
08-25-2009, 02:39 PM
Wells was hurt a lot last year. His numbers weren't too bad for missing a lot of time. Maybe he'll regain form. I'm hoping at least.

brandonwarne52
08-25-2009, 02:42 PM
What's the excuse for 2007 then? Both that year and this year he had .706 OPS'

bomber0104
08-25-2009, 02:44 PM
Unfortunately.... all these guys are doing better than Wells

jaysfan46
08-25-2009, 03:08 PM
No, they aren't.

As of the end of the year.....Wells will have been paid 2 million dollars of that deal ("signing bonus" notwithstanding).

That's right. 2.

You do have to account for the 17 million he's been paid of his signing bonus so far. The 107 million he has left on his contract for the next five years is still way more than he's worth and worse than all the contracts listed.

brandonwarne52
08-25-2009, 03:09 PM
yeah, but when you have a 500k salary followed by a 1.5 million dollar salary followed by a 12.5 and four consecutive 20+.....you can see my point.

Habs n Jays Fan
08-25-2009, 03:26 PM
For discussion purposes, here's what those 4 players are owed plus what Wells' is owed through the remainder of their contracts(excluding this year)

Alfonso Soriano- 90 Million from 2010-2014 **Full No Trade Clause

Todd Helton- 35.7 Million from 2010-2011 plus 23 Million dollar Club Option for 2012(4.6 Million dollar buyout) **Full No Trade Clause

Barry Zito- 76 Million from 2010-2013 plus 18 Million dollar Club Option for 2014(7 Million dollar buyout) **Full No Trade Clause

Carlos Lee- 55.5 Million from 2010-2012 **Full No Trade Clause through 2010

Vernon Wells- 98.5 Million from 2010-2014 plus 3rd 8.5 Million dollar signing bonus installment for March 1st, 2010 **Full No Trade Clause ***Opt Out Clause in 2011

brandonwarne52
08-25-2009, 03:39 PM
So Soriano isn't the only one that wouldn't be a no-brainer for the other GM, but should be for yours anyway.....

Soriano is '33'.

dman_39
08-25-2009, 03:48 PM
I guess Lee would be the best choice. Funny this looks like a roid team for sure, all had big peaks and then mega valleys.

scotttube
08-25-2009, 03:51 PM
in what universe is that 'close to fair'?

Unfortunately this one. Look how much they have left buddy. It would take a lot if they were going to take on Wells for one of those contracts because there isn't nearly as much money left on those deals.

Wells is owed $107 million and hes the worst player.

No way any of the teams would do that. No wonder Halladay wasn't moved because the Jays wanted to ship Wells with him.

cynomatic
08-25-2009, 04:06 PM
I could see a wells for zito deal

Gibby
08-25-2009, 04:16 PM
All thos players are way better than wells.

brandonwarne52
08-25-2009, 04:18 PM
I could see a wells for zito deal

Maybe after last season. No way now.

lukeem21
08-25-2009, 07:42 PM
I actually like the idea.... doubt any of these would be done straight up but maybe if we package a prospect with Wells it could get done? maybe? I'd just be thrilled to get Wells out although since we got rid of Rios we would then have the worst defensive outfield ever

i dont see it happening, we'll probably just have to ride it out and hope he can regain some kind of form to have a decent year

H-MYK
08-25-2009, 07:56 PM
No to Zito, he's much safer with the Giants.

nithanyo
08-25-2009, 11:44 PM
I dont want Zito. Anyone else is ok. But I have a feeling Vernon Wells will turn it around and hit 30 hr next season

BluejaysFan08
08-26-2009, 12:19 AM
Zito is garbage!

brandonwarne52
08-26-2009, 12:29 AM
Zito is garbage!

He's actually not.

And there's nobody out there that would take Wells with a prospect.

Try Wells with 50 million dollars.....and you basically have the Rios situation.

2009mvp
08-26-2009, 12:59 AM
At this point all you really can do is find a young, capable CF, shift Wells to left and hope his bat comes around. Realistically you've got to concede the fact that he's probably gonna be here for the foreseeable future, unless the FO decides to swallow a gigantic chunk of money.

nithanyo
08-26-2009, 10:50 AM
At this point all you really can do is find a young, capable CF, shift Wells to left and hope his bat comes around. Realistically you've got to concede the fact that he's probably gonna be here for the foreseeable future, unless the FO decides to swallow a gigantic chunk of money.

You can bash Wells' bat all you want cus it has been crap this year. But his defense IMO is as good as ever. I still see him running down balls just as well as his gold glove years. People say he has slowed down but i dont see it. Isnt he leading the team SB? Even if he has slowed down i think he is one of the best in baseball for getting jumps and taking the best route. Well even if im wrong, i know for a fact that he is defensively better than Lind and Snider and should stay in centre

scotttube
08-26-2009, 01:20 PM
Comparing Wells to the other center fielders around the league make him look bad, but he will stay there. It would look terrible if he couldn't even keep a center fielder job for $21-23 million.

Ellsbury
Upton
A. Jones
Cabrera
Granderson
Rios
Gomez
Sizemore
Crisp
Hunter
Hamilton
Gutierrez

He might be the worst defensively in the AL but there are definitely some faster than him: Ells, Upton, Jones, Granderson, Rios, Gomez, Sizemore, Crisp, Hunter
R. Davis

dman_39
08-26-2009, 01:32 PM
Zito in the East..hahhaha....Wells will be better next year.

2009mvp
08-26-2009, 06:12 PM
You can bash Wells' bat all you want cus it has been crap this year. But his defense IMO is as good as ever. I still see him running down balls just as well as his gold glove years. People say he has slowed down but i dont see it. Isnt he leading the team SB? Even if he has slowed down i think he is one of the best in baseball for getting jumps and taking the best route. Well even if im wrong, i know for a fact that he is defensively better than Lind and Snider and should stay in centre


Comparing Wells to the other center fielders around the league make him look bad, but he will stay there. It would look terrible if he couldn't even keep a center fielder job for $21-23 million.

Ellsbury
Upton
A. Jones
Cabrera
Granderson
Rios
Gomez
Sizemore
Crisp
Hunter
Hamilton
Gutierrez

He might be the worst defensively in the AL but there are definitely some faster than him: Ells, Upton, Jones, Granderson, Rios, Gomez, Sizemore, Crisp, Hunter
R. Davis

Every metric says he's been on more than a sharp decline since 2006. Between 2008 and 2009 I think it's more than fair to call him the worst defensive CF in baseball. Yeah it hurts with the contract and everything but you can't justify playing a guy in center everyday who's killing your staff with his glove just because he's got a contract to live up to.

Twitchy
08-26-2009, 06:38 PM
The sad thing is we can't even take Wells out of CF anymore. We have no CF backup (maybe Bautista?), and on top of that if you were to move Wells to RF or LF there's nobody who can replace him long term. We traded the one guy who could actually play good defense in CF.

The only FA who would be an upgrade in CF at this point would be Mike Cameron. He's still an above average defensive CF (5.6 UZR this year, 11.6 last) and he's got an 800 OPS.

If you put a gun to my head and said we had to compete next year, than I'd rather get Cameron instead of a big bat at DH. Move Wells to RF, Snider to LF, Lind to DH, and you've upgraded the offense and really fixed up the OF defense. You save 20-30 runs in CF by upgrading to Cameron vs having Wells in CF (Cameron's +5 this year and Wells is -19 this year), Wells has to be an upgrade over Snider in RF, and anybody is an upgrade over Lind in LF.

donatolla
08-26-2009, 11:27 PM
Wells is just not going anywhere. Our *only* hope is that he rebounds enough next year for another team to develop interest and want to trade for him. Biggest problem is that he is on the wrong side of 30 for those kinds of rebounds...

2009mvp
08-27-2009, 12:51 AM
Short term it's tough to see a solution there. There certainly isn't anyone on the roster right now you can look at and say he can handle center everyday. Wells is probably the guy next year, barring a new GM who sees what effect his lousy D has on his pitching staff. Long term you'd like to think Marisnick's the guy but he's a loooong ways away and obviously no guarantee at this point. If you shop Doc come December a young CF is a must in any package for me. Short of that it would seem the current regime have resigned to having Wells in center for the duration of his contract, which as a fan is a scary prospect.

T.O. Fan
08-27-2009, 10:39 AM
The sad thing is we can't even take Wells out of CF anymore. We have no CF backup (maybe Bautista?), and on top of that if you were to move Wells to RF or LF there's nobody who can replace him long term. We traded the one guy who could actually play good defense in CF.

The only FA who would be an upgrade in CF at this point would be Mike Cameron. He's still an above average defensive CF (5.6 UZR this year, 11.6 last) and he's got an 800 OPS.

If you put a gun to my head and said we had to compete next year, than I'd rather get Cameron instead of a big bat at DH. Move Wells to RF, Snider to LF, Lind to DH, and you've upgraded the offense and really fixed up the OF defense. You save 20-30 runs in CF by upgrading to Cameron vs having Wells in CF (Cameron's +5 this year and Wells is -19 this year), Wells has to be an upgrade over Snider in RF, and anybody is an upgrade over Lind in LF.

Interesting scenario.

nithanyo
08-27-2009, 12:53 PM
Every metric says he's been on more than a sharp decline since 2006. Between 2008 and 2009 I think it's more than fair to call him the worst defensive CF in baseball. Yeah it hurts with the contract and everything but you can't justify playing a guy in center everyday who's killing your staff with his glove just because he's got a contract to live up to.

Dont you think your going a little too far by calling him the worst Centre fielder in baseball. He went from 3 straight gold gloves to worst centre fielder in baseball. How do you measure a centre fielders range anyways? Some stats in baseball make sense but calculating an outfielders range is stupid.

brandonwarne52
08-27-2009, 03:14 PM
Stupid because you don't understand it?

marcre
08-27-2009, 03:27 PM
Saying Wells can't play defense is crazy.

Twitchy
08-27-2009, 05:39 PM
Saying Wells can't play defense is crazy.

Every defensive stat available says Wells is one of the weakest centerfielders in the game. He's just not covering as much ground anymore. He makes the routine plays but a lot of balls in the gap and over his head that should be caught he's coming up short on.

His instincts are still pretty good but the pure athleticism isn't what it used to be.

marcre
08-27-2009, 07:27 PM
Every defensive stat available says Wells is one of the weakest centerfielders in the game. He's just not covering as much ground anymore. He makes the routine plays but a lot of balls in the gap and over his head that should be caught he's coming up short on.

His instincts are still pretty good but the pure athleticism isn't what it used to be.

Well, I just don't agree with that. All those gold gloves would say otherwise. I haven't noticed things getting by him either. We could do a lot worse in CF.

Twitchy
08-27-2009, 07:41 PM
Well, I just don't agree with that. All those gold gloves would say otherwise. I haven't noticed things getting by him either. We could do a lot worse in CF.

Well, gold gloves aren't exactly the best way to prove a point. Palmeiro won a GG at first base the year he played 32 games. But Wells was pretty good between 04-06 off the top of my head (and this is when he won the GG's).

It's just the past 2-3 years his defense has gone from average/above average to below average/arguably the worst CF in the majors.

marcre
08-27-2009, 09:23 PM
Well, gold gloves aren't exactly the best way to prove a point. Palmeiro won a GG at first base the year he played 32 games. But Wells was pretty good between 04-06 off the top of my head (and this is when he won the GG's).

It's just the past 2-3 years his defense has gone from average/above average to below average/arguably the worst CF in the majors.


???

Wells was never just average at CF. He was always well above average. Calling him the worst in baseball is nuts. No doubt he's not as good as he was, but he's still top 10 I'd guess.

A couple times this year I've seen him miss something he may have gotten to in the past, but they were balls most other CF's wouldn't have gotten either.

donatolla
08-27-2009, 09:51 PM
???

Wells was never just average at CF. He was always well above average. Calling him the worst in baseball is nuts. No doubt he's not as good as he was, but he's still top 10 I'd guess.

A couple times this year I've seen him miss something he may have gotten to in the past, but they were balls most other CF's wouldn't have gotten either.

You have to set aside the home team bias and be a bit more objective. The sad reality is that Wells, likely through all the injuries the last few years, has declined significantly defensively.

You will not find any knowledgeable baseball person will rank Wells in the top ten anymore.

2009mvp
08-28-2009, 12:17 AM
The Gold Glove argument is funny considering McClouth won one last year as at best one of the bottom three CFers in baseball. At least Wells was probably still slightly above average when he won his GG's.

marcre
08-28-2009, 02:21 AM
You have to set aside the home team bias and be a bit more objective. The sad reality is that Wells, likely through all the injuries the last few years, has declined significantly defensively.

You will not find any knowledgeable baseball person will rank Wells in the top ten anymore.

lol @ home team bias. Read some of my other posts and tell me again that I have home team bias.

This team sucks and is making a case for bottom feeder.

I know Wells is not what he used to be, but defensively, he's not nearly as bad as the worst in the league. If he was hitting people wouldn't be all over him like they are. I don't really know where he ranks, and statistics and fancy formulas bore me. I watch the games. I really don't see him costing us games with his glove. His bat is another story.

People need to get over his contract and accept the fact that he is here to stay. Maybe if he wasn't constantly booed his bat would turn around at home. Funny how his road average is good. Also, maybe if there was some talent around him at the plate his numbers would be better. There are a couple bright spots on this team, that's about it.

brandonwarne52
08-28-2009, 02:30 AM
"Watching the games" isn't enough......because you have a predisposed bias that you apparently aren't aware of.

brandonwarne52
08-28-2009, 02:31 AM
He's hitting .306/.336/.450 on the road. Pretty decent, but not even as good as his career numbers.

And that contract is virtually impossible to just 'get over'.

marcre
08-28-2009, 02:46 AM
"Watching the games" isn't enough......because you have a predisposed bias that you apparently aren't aware of.

I guess I'm wrong then, just because you said so. Fact is, he's not the worst CF'er in baseball. He's not in the bottom half. Those road numbers aren't bad. If his home numbers were similar, we'd be a lot better off.

As far as getting over his contract. It's the only option. 99% of this forum has complained about it non-stop all season. Guess what? He's still here and not going anywhere. Seriously, he is not going anywhere anytime soon. He is a Blue Jay for a long time. I wish we could get rid of it, but we can't. Anything this team does in the future will involve him and that contract. I really don't understand why people can't let that sink in.

Wells I'm sure is a good guy. He's hurting our team with his lack of hitting and the contract. I'd love for him to be traded, but I understand that isn't going to happen. So we need to set it aside and move on.

And... "watching the games" is clearly enough.

Twitchy
08-28-2009, 09:28 AM
I watch the same games you're watching and I agree with the stats that Vernon just isn't the same fielder he was 3 years ago. I cover my eyes anytime a balls hit into the gaps because Vernon can't track them down as well as he used too.

cynomatic
08-28-2009, 12:06 PM
I watch the same games you're watching and I agree with the stats that Vernon just isn't the same fielder he was 3 years ago. I cover my eyes anytime a balls hit into the gaps because Vernon can't track them down as well as he used too.

I wonder if its because he is off the jucie? I wouldn't be shocked if Wells name was link to roids, lets be honest in this era when a player has dropped off like this steroids should always be considered as a reason.

brandonwarne52
08-28-2009, 01:57 PM
And... "watching the games" is clearly enough.

Apparently it isn't.


Center Fielders:

McLouth, Nate -40
Edmonds, Jim -26
Kotsay, Mark -16
Wells, Vernon -16
Ankiel, Rick -15
Hamilton, Josh -13

Source: http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/charts/leaders2-08.gif




Center Fielders:

Vernon Wells -19.5
Dexter Fowler -15.3
Jacoby Ellsbury -13.8
Ben Francisco -9.6
Adam Jones -8.9
Cody Ross -7.9

Source: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2009&month=0

Talick
08-30-2009, 02:11 AM
LOL Vernon has an opt out clause? Makes me hat him even more.

Also, Isn't Vernon's contract heavily bottom loaded? I don't think that would be attractive to anyone.

brandonwarne52
08-30-2009, 02:12 AM
He's owed 20+ million in each of the last 4 years of the deal. YIKES.

donatolla
08-30-2009, 01:26 PM
lol @ home team bias. Read some of my other posts and tell me again that I have home team bias.

This team sucks and is making a case for bottom feeder.

I know Wells is not what he used to be, but defensively, he's not nearly as bad as the worst in the league. If he was hitting people wouldn't be all over him like they are. I don't really know where he ranks, and statistics and fancy formulas bore me. I watch the games. I really don't see him costing us games with his glove. His bat is another story.

People need to get over his contract and accept the fact that he is here to stay. Maybe if he wasn't constantly booed his bat would turn around at home. Funny how his road average is good. Also, maybe if there was some talent around him at the plate his numbers would be better. There are a couple bright spots on this team, that's about it.

Unless you can say that you have watched live and in person:
- every inning of every game that Wells has played CF,
- every play that he has, and hasn't made,
- every route to a ball that he has followed,
- and every resulting throw to the infield,
You simply cannot be objective and will simply show an observer bias.

marcre
08-30-2009, 04:58 PM
Unless you can say that you have watched live and in person:
- every inning of every game that Wells has played CF,
- every play that he has, and hasn't made,
- every route to a ball that he has followed,
- and every resulting throw to the infield,
You simply cannot be objective and will simply show an observer bias.

ok, he's the worst CF'er in baseball. He has cost us every game with his poor play in the field.

I've never doubted that he lost a step, but he's not that bad and CF isn't one of the biggest concerns on this team. We have many holes to fill, CF isn't a high priority.

Anyway, why worry, I'm doubtful any of the holes will be filled this offseason.

donatolla
08-30-2009, 07:43 PM
ok, he's the worst CF'er in baseball. He has cost us every game with his poor play in the field.

I've never doubted that he lost a step, but he's not that bad and CF isn't one of the biggest concerns on this team. We have many holes to fill, CF isn't a high priority.

Anyway, why worry, I'm doubtful any of the holes will be filled this offseason.

IMO, CF is a hole that *should* be filled, but won't for all the reasons that fill this thread. In reality, lets just hope that we are able to plug up some holes in the offseason where there is actually flexibility in the players currently there.

6th man
08-30-2009, 08:24 PM
We should get Soriano

marcre
08-30-2009, 09:24 PM
IMO, CF is a hole that *should* be filled, but won't for all the reasons that fill this thread. In reality, lets just hope that we are able to plug up some holes in the offseason where there is actually flexibility in the players currently there.

That's the point. He's not going anywhere and he'll do. Face facts, he is here to stay. We have plenty of other needs, so we might as well fill them. Now, I don't believe they are going to do that.

marcre
08-30-2009, 09:24 PM
We should get Soriano

not a shot. He's had a down year and this team can't afford him.

Twitchy
08-30-2009, 10:50 PM
That's the point. He's not going anywhere and he'll do. Face facts, he is here to stay. We have plenty of other needs, so we might as well fill them. Now, I don't believe they are going to do that.

You could always sign a guy like Mike Cameron, who allows you to shift Wells to RF, Snider to LF and Lind to DH. Fills a hole, and improves the defense at every OF position.

There's ways to work around Wells contract. Just gotta be creative with how you do it. Course, I still think the Jays should rebuild though...

nithanyo
08-30-2009, 10:52 PM
IMO we have 7-8 spots in the lineup that need some upgrades before CF.
Only 2B, and LF/DH(LInd) are the only hitters that will help this team in the long term other than Vernon. You can make a case for Snider but he needs more time in the big leagues

marcre
08-31-2009, 12:39 AM
You could always sign a guy like Mike Cameron, who allows you to shift Wells to RF, Snider to LF and Lind to DH. Fills a hole, and improves the defense at every OF position.

There's ways to work around Wells contract. Just gotta be creative with how you do it. Course, I still think the Jays should rebuild though...

Totally agree. My point all along is Wells isn't going anywhere and that's just the way it is. He's not a terrible defender and will be fine in RF. I do find it funny how the whole forum is down on Wells' defense when Snider and Lind are terrible out there in the field right now. It's clear to me that Lind shouldn't be anywhere in the field until he gets some work in an instructional league.

Wells contract is here to stay, let's upgrade where we actually can. If we can find a better CF'er, then fine, but we have no choice but to work around Wells. He has to play everyday and he is going to.

marcre
08-31-2009, 12:41 AM
IMO we have 7-8 spots in the lineup that need some upgrades before CF.
Only 2B, and LF/DH(LInd) are the only hitters that will help this team in the long term other than Vernon. You can make a case for Snider but he needs more time in the big leagues

Totally agree, except Lind should learn a different position other than LF. I'm hoping he can become a good first baseman. We'll see though. Snider has a lot of work to do in the field and at the plate. I think he'll get there, but you never know.

2009mvp
08-31-2009, 01:10 AM
We should get Soriano

And Zito. And Gary Matthews Jr. And Carlos Silva. And Aaron Rowand can be our 4th OF. That's the answer.

hungry_eye
08-31-2009, 02:55 AM
All you guys bashing Wells is out to lunch... I watched this team through all the highs and lows and am confident to say that Wells is not the reason for this dismal season. In fact, if Wells got a quarter for everytime he missed a fly ball or a hit to the gap; he'd have almost a dollar by now. It's a good thing he enjoys the benefit of have a contract that allows him to prosper.

In fact, I think Wells is the best Blue jay in past, present and future. He is a saturation of talent and skill. He is by far, one of the greatest men who's ever stepped on the field. In fact, he's got my vote for greatest human being... EVER.

I am fortunate to see Wells play here in T.O; god bless the Jays!!!! (especially Vernon).

DC82
08-31-2009, 07:39 AM
You could always sign a guy like Mike Cameron, who allows you to shift Wells to RF, Snider to LF and Lind to DH. Fills a hole, and improves the defense at every OF position.

There's ways to work around Wells contract. Just gotta be creative with how you do it. Course, I still think the Jays should rebuild though...

Why don't the Jays just cut some of their losses and trade him and cash to another team. It would actually save them some money.

Zaunnie
08-31-2009, 07:49 AM
And Zito. And Gary Matthews Jr. And Carlos Silva. And Aaron Rowand can be our 4th OF. That's the answer.

instant world series right there :nod:

scotttube
08-31-2009, 02:55 PM
Those fielding rates on fan graphs are weird. Rolen is the 7th best 3rd baseman? Thought he'd be higher. Hill is a negative defensively? Overbay is a negative defensively?

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2009&month=0

scotttube
08-31-2009, 03:00 PM
The sad thing is we can't even take Wells out of CF anymore. We have no CF backup (maybe Bautista?), and on top of that if you were to move Wells to RF or LF there's nobody who can replace him long term. We traded the one guy who could actually play good defense in CF.

The only FA who would be an upgrade in CF at this point would be Mike Cameron. He's still an above average defensive CF (5.6 UZR this year, 11.6 last) and he's got an 800 OPS.

If you put a gun to my head and said we had to compete next year, than I'd rather get Cameron instead of a big bat at DH. Move Wells to RF, Snider to LF, Lind to DH, and you've upgraded the offense and really fixed up the OF defense. You save 20-30 runs in CF by upgrading to Cameron vs having Wells in CF (Cameron's +5 this year and Wells is -19 this year), Wells has to be an upgrade over Snider in RF, and anybody is an upgrade over Lind in LF.

I dont think Wells is an upgrade over Snider in right. Either way there'd be no reason to have Snider in left Wells in right because you always want the better arm in right (Snider), even if the better overall defence is in left (Wells).

JetLi
08-31-2009, 03:16 PM
Lind and Snider are much improved from last year, but still not strong OFs, they are good bats though. Last year, Snider and Lind scared the crap out of me every time a ball was hit to them, this year, they at least seem okay fielding, not great, about average I guess, but their throwing can use some work.

MLBJB
08-31-2009, 04:11 PM
Can we buy Wells out? I know it will be a massive payout but we could end up saving some money in the end.

What are the MLB rules on buyouts, if any?

I guess the only thing we can hope for is for Wells to rebound in a big way next year. Then hope we can trade him (with the Jays picking up a large portion).

FlakeyFool
08-31-2009, 05:27 PM
vernon wells for mvp

wamco
08-31-2009, 07:10 PM
Those fielding rates on fan graphs are weird. Rolen is the 7th best 3rd baseman? Thought he'd be higher. Hill is a negative defensively? Overbay is a negative defensively?

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2009&month=0


ha, good stuff

marcre
08-31-2009, 07:18 PM
Those fielding rates on fan graphs are weird. Rolen is the 7th best 3rd baseman? Thought he'd be higher. Hill is a negative defensively? Overbay is a negative defensively?

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2009&month=0

sometimes stats are worthless. Trust your eyes. It's old school.

brandonwarne52
08-31-2009, 08:39 PM
sometimes stats are worthless. Trust your eyes. It's old school.

:facepalm:

Ha. Okay.

Twitchy
08-31-2009, 08:58 PM
I dont think Wells is an upgrade over Snider in right. Either way there'd be no reason to have Snider in left Wells in right because you always want the better arm in right (Snider), even if the better overall defence is in left (Wells).

If Snider's arm made up for his complete lack of range in RF I'd agree. But that's not the case. He's better suited for LF despite having a strong arm. And Wells needs to be out of CF. And since Snider should be a LF...well...Wells is the RF. It's not ideal, but it'd be better than having Wells in LF and Snider in RF.


Those fielding rates on fan graphs are weird. Rolen is the 7th best 3rd baseman? Thought he'd be higher. Hill is a negative defensively? Overbay is a negative defensively?

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2009&month=0

Nobody actually looks at stats from the current year to prove a point. You need 2-3 years of information because defensive stats aren't perfect. In other words - I don't use this years #'s to say Wells is the worst CF in the game. I use the fact his UZR has declined for 2-3 straight years, and at such epic levels (-20 in some cases), that he is one of the worst defensive CF's in the game.

So while Hill may be a negative, you have to look at the past 3 years. He's been .7, 6.6 and 18.1. What that tells me is that he's an above average defensive player, and while he's not rated highly this year, he's still been good overall.

wamco
08-31-2009, 09:52 PM
He's been .7, 6.6 and 18.1.

That is a hell of a big variance for the same player in his prime playing excellent D isn't it?

marcre
08-31-2009, 10:42 PM
:facepalm:

Ha. Okay.

:rolleyes:

Drake
08-31-2009, 10:52 PM
You guys need to grab a dose of reality, the contract blows and no one will pick it up regardless of what they are giving up. The Jays best chance is to spike his meals with steroids and get him thrown out of baseball......

2009mvp
09-01-2009, 12:15 AM
He's been .7, 6.6 and 18.1.

That is a hell of a big variance for the same player in his prime playing excellent D isn't it?

A) No one will say defensive stats are perfect at this point.
B) Someone could correct me if I'm wrong, but from my understanding UZR/150 numbers are generated in relation to every other fielder at the same position in baseball during that season. In theory a 6.6 and an 18.1 could represent the exact same player making the exact same plays from one year to the next, though the rest of the league happens to be a lot better at the position.
C) Defensive stats are farrr from perfect.

Like twitchy said, you've got to look at more than one year to paint a decent picture of a guy. Generally the UZR numbers seem to agree with what you observe watching a team day in day out though.

ChongInc.
09-01-2009, 12:41 AM
i would take soriano or helton

marcre
09-01-2009, 02:20 AM
Oh, great catch by Wells tonight. Sure looks like the worst CF'er in the league.

wamco
09-01-2009, 07:56 AM
I agree with suggestion to take a few years as more of a sample than one year. Look up Alomar or Vizquel and see if the UZR's make sense or not. ( I have no idea, I just think of those two as awesome fielders and the 2 together in cleveland was as good as middle D gets)

JaysFan87
09-01-2009, 10:55 AM
I agree with suggestion to take a few years as more of a sample than one year. Look up Alomar or Vizquel and see if the UZR's make sense or not. ( I have no idea, I just think of those two as awesome fielders and the 2 together in cleveland was as good as middle D gets)

UZR onyl goes back till 2002, that is when it was created

marcre
09-01-2009, 02:26 PM
UZR onyl goes back till 2002, that is when it was created

how were we able to know who was good defensively before then?

brandonwarne52
09-01-2009, 03:13 PM
Batting average, home runs, and RBI.

scotttube
09-01-2009, 03:59 PM
If Snider's arm made up for his complete lack of range in RF I'd agree. But that's not the case. He's better suited for LF despite having a strong arm. And Wells needs to be out of CF. And since Snider should be a LF...well...Wells is the RF. It's not ideal, but it'd be better than having Wells in LF and Snider in RF.



Nobody actually looks at stats from the current year to prove a point. You need 2-3 years of information because defensive stats aren't perfect. In other words - I don't use this years #'s to say Wells is the worst CF in the game. I use the fact his UZR has declined for 2-3 straight years, and at such epic levels (-20 in some cases), that he is one of the worst defensive CF's in the game.

So while Hill may be a negative, you have to look at the past 3 years. He's been .7, 6.6 and 18.1. What that tells me is that he's an above average defensive player, and while he's not rated highly this year, he's still been good overall.

You need just as much range to play left field as you do to play right field. In a semetrical park like Rogers center right field isn't inherently bigger or harder to cover than left. The only difference between left and right is that you want the player with stronger throwing in right field. Between Wells and Snider that would be Snider. Because Wells can cover more ground it doesn't make him a better right fielder. It's just as important to cover ground in left as it is in right. Center field is where the range should be taken into consideration. The reason Lind can only play left isn't his lack of range but rather his lack of throwing ability. If he could throw like Alex Rios he'd be in right. But enough on that topic.

It's weird to me though that a defensive metric would say that Overbay and Hill were "negatives" defensively in 2009. I really thought they were better than that in 2009. The same metric however says that Rolen is very good, Encarnacion is terrible and Scutaro has been the best defensive shortstop this year. It's not like it's inherently biased towards the 2009 Blue Jays or anything.

Twitchy
09-01-2009, 05:50 PM
Oh, great catch by Wells tonight. Sure looks like the worst CF'er in the league.

Nobody said he's incapable of making a good play. John McDonald can hit an occasional homer - does that make him a good hitter?

Even poor defensive players can make good plays once in a while, just like a bad hitter can come up with a big hit.


You need just as much range to play left field as you do to play right field. In a semetrical park like Rogers center right field isn't inherently bigger or harder to cover than left. The only difference between left and right is that you want the player with stronger throwing in right field. Between Wells and Snider that would be Snider. Because Wells can cover more ground it doesn't make him a better right fielder.

To this point in time Snider has shown that, arm strength aside, he has no business in RF. He's just a horrible, horrible defensive OF. There's no getting around it. Obviously you want the guy with the stronger arm in RF, but if the guy doesn't have the range to play RF then there's no point in keeping him there. And while it's a small sample, he's been much better in LF than RF. Why, I have no idea.


It's just as important to cover ground in left as it is in right. Center field is where the range should be taken into consideration. The reason Lind can only play left isn't his lack of range but rather his lack of throwing ability. If he could throw like Alex Rios he'd be in right. But enough on that topic.

I don't care if Adam Lind could throw like Guerrero in his prime, he has no business being in RF. He's a DH pretending to be a LF.


It's weird to me though that a defensive metric would say that Overbay and Hill were "negatives" defensively in 2009. I really thought they were better than that in 2009. The same metric however says that Rolen is very good, Encarnacion is terrible and Scutaro has been the best defensive shortstop this year. It's not like it's inherently biased towards the 2009 Blue Jays or anything.

And like I said for the thousandth time, nobody actually gives a damn about how a guy does in one season based on UZR. You have to use multiple years of evidence to actually prove a guy is above or below average.

marcre
09-01-2009, 06:03 PM
Nobody said he's incapable of making a good play. John McDonald can hit an occasional homer - does that make him a good hitter?

Even poor defensive players can make good plays once in a while, just like a bad hitter can come up with a big hit.


Actually, may have said he's terrible in CF. Which, as anyone with common sense know, he's not a bad CF'er at all.

Twitchy
09-01-2009, 07:24 PM
Actually, may have said he's terrible in CF. Which, as anyone with common sense know, he's not a bad CF'er at all.

There's just so much irony in that statement.

marcre
09-01-2009, 07:32 PM
There's just so much irony in that statement.

actually, it should have said "many", not "may".

I get it though, you think he is a terrible defensive player. You think that catch last night was lucky. I get it. I'm not trying to change your mind. Fact is, he's not terrible and he's not close to the worst CF'er in the game.

If he didn't make that catch, we would have lost the game in all likelihood.

PS, look up irony, there's none it my previous post.

Twitchy
09-01-2009, 08:46 PM
actually, it should have said "many", not "may".

I get it though, you think he is a terrible defensive player.

It's not something I think. It's something I can actually prove.


You think that catch last night was lucky. I get it.

I didn't see the catch and I never said his catch was lucky. I said making one good play doesn't make him a good fielder.


I'm not trying to change your mind. Fact is, he's not terrible and he's not close to the worst CF'er in the game.

Actually, the facts show he is a terrible CF. It's not a matter of me having a vendetta against Wells here. I've shown with several different metrics that his defense has fallen off. The only arguments that he is a good CF is anecdotal or "watching the games" type evidence.

So really, I'm not sure you can say "fact is he's not terrible" when the facts show he is terrible.


If he didn't make that catch, we would have lost the game in all likelihood.

Whether or not this is the case, his defense has cost the team 20 runs this season, and at 10 runs to a win , his defense has cost the team two wins so far this year alone. If he was a good defensive player, he would be saving the teams runs, and that's not something he's done since 2006.


PS, look up irony, there's none it my previous post.

Let me re-quote the post to show the irony.


Actually, may have said he's terrible in CF. Which, as anyone with common sense know, he's not a bad CF'er at all.

The ironic part is you claiming anybody with common sense would know that he's not terrible, when anybody who has a good understanding of defensive statistics knows Wells isn't a good CF. So saying anybody with common sense knows he's not a bad fielder is ironic, because as anybody with common sense knows, Wells is not a good defensive CF as of 2007 or thereabouts.

But this has gone long enough. If you want to believe that Wells is a good CF, then by all means. I could care less at this point.

donatolla
09-01-2009, 09:48 PM
I *knew* that that catch last night would result in "look I'm right! Wells is a great fielder!" comments.

Something about sample size comes to mind... How many years of chances showing declining ability vs. *one* last night?

marcre
09-01-2009, 10:47 PM
I *knew* that that catch last night would result in "look I'm right! Wells is a great fielder!" comments.

Something about sample size comes to mind... How many years of chances showing declining ability vs. *one* last night?

I'll assume that's directed at me. All I ever said was he isn't horrible and there are a lot of other concerns on the team. CF is not a chief concern of mine going into the next season. Others spend all their time saying he's the worst and making it sound like he's the sole reason for the bad season of the team. It's ridiculous, really it is.

marcre
09-01-2009, 10:54 PM
It's not something I think. It's something I can actually prove.



I didn't see the catch and I never said his catch was lucky. I said making one good play doesn't make him a good fielder.



Actually, the facts show he is a terrible CF. It's not a matter of me having a vendetta against Wells here. I've shown with several different metrics that his defense has fallen off. The only arguments that he is a good CF is anecdotal or "watching the games" type evidence.

So really, I'm not sure you can say "fact is he's not terrible" when the facts show he is terrible.



Whether or not this is the case, his defense has cost the team 20 runs this season, and at 10 runs to a win , his defense has cost the team two wins so far this year alone. If he was a good defensive player, he would be saving the teams runs, and that's not something he's done since 2006.



Let me re-quote the post to show the irony.



The ironic part is you claiming anybody with common sense would know that he's not terrible, when anybody who has a good understanding of defensive statistics knows Wells isn't a good CF. So saying anybody with common sense knows he's not a bad fielder is ironic, because as anybody with common sense knows, Wells is not a good defensive CF as of 2007 or thereabouts.

But this has gone long enough. If you want to believe that Wells is a good CF, then by all means. I could care less at this point.

I'm not arguing hes good or great or anything. I'm just pointing out he's not horrible. Well, for the money he's making he is, but not many are worth that. All I'm saying is, he's not terrible. He's just not.

Anyway, like I said, I'm not trying to change your mind. I really don't care what you or anyone thinks of Wells or anyone else on this team. If you choose to believe that he is the worst CF'er out there, I'm fine with that. I know that's not true. He's easily in the top half in the league. He can still make plays out in the field.

I also realize you love stats and defensive stats. That is your prerogative, but stats are flawed.

Last night's catch was not the only good play he's made all year. He literally saved the game with that catch. That is fact.

Thanks for the schooling. Anyway, please stop responding with all the garbage.

PS, the correct use is "I couldn't care less".

2009mvp
09-01-2009, 11:55 PM
Joe Morgan, is that you?

Twitchy
09-02-2009, 12:34 AM
I'm actually kind of amused by your response.


Thanks for the schooling. Anyway, please stop responding with all the garbage.


I'm going to assume that by garbage, you mean these crazy things called logic and facts.



I also realize you love stats and defensive stats. That is your prerogative, but stats are flawed.

But of course, it's impossible for your argument of "Wells can't be terrible because I said so and I watch the games" to be flawed. No, that's crazy talk. Why would stats and actual evidence outweigh personal opinions?

What was I thinking using stats all those times to prove my point? God! I could have just said "I'm right because I said so" and that would have made my life so much easier.

And for the inevitable "I thought you didn't care", I was referring to trying to show you that Wells is a crappy OF.

marcre
09-02-2009, 02:02 AM
I'm actually kind of amused by your response.



I'm going to assume that by garbage, you mean these crazy things called logic and facts.



But of course, it's impossible for your argument of "Wells can't be terrible because I said so and I watch the games" to be flawed. No, that's crazy talk. Why would stats and actual evidence outweigh personal opinions?

What was I thinking using stats all those times to prove my point? God! I could have just said "I'm right because I said so" and that would have made my life so much easier.

And for the inevitable "I thought you didn't care", I was referring to trying to show you that Wells is a crappy OF.

I've done some soul searching and I agree with you now. Wells is the worst outfielder in baseball. I'm sorry, but I can see it now. Our number one priority in the offseason is to find a suitable CF'er. Wells will make a good player off the bench. WS here we come once we replace him.

brandonwarne52
09-02-2009, 02:35 AM
I've done some soul searching and I agree with you now. Wells is the worst outfielder in baseball. I'm sorry, but I can see it now. Our number one priority in the offseason is to find a suitable CF'er. Wells will make a good player off the bench. WS here we come once we replace him.

He's not suggesting that at all. Logical fallacies....look into them.

marcre
09-02-2009, 02:56 AM
He's not suggesting that at all. Logical fallacies....look into them.

:rolleyes:

ramz.n
09-02-2009, 07:44 AM
actually, it should have said "many", not "may".

I get it though, you think he is a terrible defensive player. You think that catch last night was lucky. I get it. I'm not trying to change your mind. Fact is, he's not terrible and he's not close to the worst CF'er in the game.

If he didn't make that catch, we would have lost the game in all likelihood.

PS, look up irony, there's none it my previous post.

hes the worse cf'er getting paided franchise money...the guy fricken makes more than halladay..so if that isn't bad enough halladay's value is like 40m/yr compared to wells performance.

Zmaster52
09-02-2009, 12:14 PM
I could actually see Wells for Helton... Colorado seems to be willing to take chances like that...

Helton is going to stay with colorado the rest of his carreer, wells has a better chance going to wrigley field

marcre
09-02-2009, 03:22 PM
hes the worse cf'er getting paided franchise money...the guy fricken makes more than halladay..so if that isn't bad enough halladay's value is like 40m/yr compared to wells performance.

That's totally irrelevant. Money isn't the point of the discussion. Everyone knows he's overpaid and not worth the contract, not even close.

Twitchy
09-02-2009, 05:42 PM
I've done some soul searching and I agree with you now. Wells is the worst outfielder in baseball. I'm sorry, but I can see it now. Our number one priority in the offseason is to find a suitable CF'er. Wells will make a good player off the bench. WS here we come once we replace him.

I wouldn't go so far as to say Wells should go to the bench. But think about it - if we get a good defensive CF who can produce (a Mike Cameron type), you upgrade the offense and the defense in CF. You push Wells to RF or LF, which moves Lind to DH (with Snider playing the corner OF spot not occupied by Wells). So you gain from having Wells in a corner spot over Lind, Lind is out of the outfield and not costing us defensively, and there's the big DH bat we've been looking for. And in one short move you've upgraded 3 spots (CF, LF or RF, and DH).

That's all I'm saying. If you get the opportunity to acquire a better defensive CF who can hit, the Jays shouldn't pass on him because Wells is pretending to be a CF.

marcre
09-02-2009, 06:39 PM
I wouldn't go so far as to say Wells should go to the bench. But think about it - if we get a good defensive CF who can produce (a Mike Cameron type), you upgrade the offense and the defense in CF. You push Wells to RF or LF, which moves Lind to DH (with Snider playing the corner OF spot not occupied by Wells). So you gain from having Wells in a corner spot over Lind, Lind is out of the outfield and not costing us defensively, and there's the big DH bat we've been looking for. And in one short move you've upgraded 3 spots (CF, LF or RF, and DH).

That's all I'm saying. If you get the opportunity to acquire a better defensive CF who can hit, the Jays shouldn't pass on him because Wells is pretending to be a CF.

Agreed. All I've been saying all along is he's not the worst and not even in the bottom. Of course he's lost a step and of course he isn't what he was, but he's still got something on the field. This team has a lot of holes on it. Lind playing the outfield is one of them. I'd be fine with moving Wells to RF.

I just get frustrated with the constant Wells bashing(not saying you did that) when reality needs to set in for fans of this team. His contract is what it is and Wells is on this team for the foreseeable future. There's a lot of players on this team that are not doing anything, yet they are given a free pass. This team is going to finish ~20 games under .500 and that all can't be put on Wells.