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View Full Version : The different values of an Assist



Chronz
08-20-2009, 02:35 PM
Ive always held a firm belief that creating high% looks in the paint was much more valuable of an assist than creating a low% mid range shot, with 3pt assists being somewhere in the middle.



Credit to Irishhand of APBR for going through the play by play
Comparison of the top Assist-men in the league.

%Asts PGs Paul Deron Nash Calderon
mid 35.2 35.9 34.9 30.2 46.0
3pt 26.1 25.8 21.9 20.5 23.9
close 38.7 38.3 43.2 49.3 30.0

Deron and CP3 have similar assist locations, with Nash being the dominant inside passer, its only Calderon who relies on the least efficient shot in basketball to accumulate assists.

When it comes to evaluating passing efficiency the first thing you have to do is eliminate the home score-keeper bias, if any. CP3 is notorious for getting such a generous boost, compared to Nash there is a 12% difference in Home vs Away assist discrepancy yet despite that, Nash is still far and away the best inside playmaker.

I suppose the offensive scheme and personnel play a large role here such as Calderon having a surplus of midrange shooting bigmen and little guys but I still feel Calderon's assists are less valuable. Playing the role of distributor in such a horrible offensive system doesnt mean as much as quarterbacking a good offense.

What do you guys think, are all assists created equally or do you value some more than others? Is assist location more telling of a players playmaking or of the players around him, if so do you think any of these guys would suffer with their passing efficiency if they switched teams?

Sly Guy
08-20-2009, 04:02 PM
I think if you really want a better idea of the value of a pg, look at the fg% of all shots made from their pass. How many times the pass has led a player to a high percentage shot is more important than where an assist came from.

Debating on the range of the shot per assist doesn't tell you the value, because a team's style and system dictate where players will be getting their shots. Besides, you could argue that a 3 point shot made off an assist is the most valuable because you're awarded the most points.

stealth33
08-20-2009, 04:19 PM
Nash has Amare, CP3 has David West. I agree with the general idea of this, but the personnel plays a HUGE role in this. Best way to evaluate a player will always be to watch the player...you know..with your eyes, and see the effect that he has on his team. Nash and CP3 are both hugely important to their teams and without them their respective teams can look lost at times.

ink
08-20-2009, 04:29 PM
Agreed that personnel plays a huge role. If the PG doesn't have players who are strong in the paint to pass to, he is not going to pass inside as much. Pretty logical. Calderon, for example, couldn't pass inside to Bargnani because most of the time he wasn't there! lol. And passing to Bosh was passing to a black hole. Hopefully this will improve a bit this year with the addition of Hedo and a full training camp from a new coach. We're all hoping the Raptors offensive strategy will evolve to include more low post play. I agree also that Nash is by far the best inside passer, but again, look at who he has had to pass to inside.

Good breakdown of the value of assists all the same. :clap:

Chronz
08-20-2009, 04:42 PM
Nash has Amare, CP3 has David West.I agree with the general idea of this, but the personnel plays a HUGE role in this.
What do you mean?


Best way to evaluate a player will always be to watch the player...you know..with your eyes, and see the effect that he has on his team.
I think you misunderstand the point of the thread. The best way to evaluate a player is to measure the measurables and watch the player. You cant see the effect he has on a team if you dont have a basis for comparison and since you cant see every team play every game against every opposition you must turn to statistical output for your inquiry. Any average joe can look at a game and sense what players are important to his team, it takes alot more work to accurately quantify his importance relative to the entire league.


Nash and CP3 are both hugely important to their teams and without them their respective teams can look lost at times.

No disrespect but my 12 year old niece could come up with that. How much of an impact do they have? What kind of shot distribution and efficiency does the team have in those "LOST" times?

Chronz
08-20-2009, 04:45 PM
I think if you really want a better idea of the value of a pg, look at the fg% of all shots made from their pass. How many times the pass has led a player to a high percentage shot is more important than where an assist came from.

Debating on the range of the shot per assist doesn't tell you the value, because a team's style and system dictate where players will be getting their shots. Besides, you could argue that a 3 point shot made off an assist is the most valuable because you're awarded the most points.
Strong points all around, I wish I had those stats, sadly I cant differentiate the difference between an assisted miss and a non-assisted miss. There are trends that reveal bits and clues about this very same issue but nothing consistent.

Still that would be the best place to look for if I ever get my synergy account back I'll look into it, from Ive heard a few GM's track this data through that. Daryl Morey refers to them as true assists (Which focuses solely on the pass and quality of a shot rather than the act of finishing the play)

Chronz
08-20-2009, 04:58 PM
Agreed that personnel plays a huge role. If the PG doesn't have players who are strong in the paint to pass to, he is not going to pass inside as much. Pretty logical. Calderon, for example, couldn't pass inside to Bargnani because most of the time he wasn't there! lol. And passing to Bosh was passing to a black hole. Hopefully this will improve a bit this year with the addition of Hedo and a full training camp from a new coach. We're all hoping the Raptors offensive strategy will evolve to include more low post play. I agree also that Nash is by far the best inside passer, but again, look at who he has had to pass to inside.

Good breakdown of the value of assists all the same. :clap:
Yea Im curious to see how being traded to different environments changed the passing efficiency and overall distribution of shot attempts.

You mention the fact that he couldnt make the pass because he wasnt there, but there is also the element of where the defense is positioned. Nash being more of a threat could open up space in the paint that otherwise wouldnt be available to Bosh and allowing him higher% looks.

If you were to put Nash in Toronto, would we see more of shift in his assist locations (if so does how it impact his assist efficiency), or would we see Bosh and Bargs get more inside shots.

There has to be some sort of correlation in either direction, I just want to know which is stronger (therefore) more predictable. More importantly I want to know if it changes anything about a players passing stats. If its what Im hunching at then it'll raise other questions that about a few off-season additions this year and shed some light on mistakes of the past for my Clipps.

But your right, some players prefer their own spots and thats the sole target you can look for if your a playmaker.

ink
08-20-2009, 05:18 PM
Nash being more of a threat could open up space in the paint that otherwise wouldnt be available to Bosh and allowing him higher% looks.

If you were to put Nash in Toronto, would we see more of shift in his assist locations (if so does how it impact his assist efficiency), or would we see Bosh and Bargs get more inside shots.

There's no doubt that both Bosh and Bargnani would benefit from playing with Nash. He's probably a better PG than Calderon will ever be. I really like Jose though. Just because he's not MVP calibre doesn't mean he's no good. He's just less effective than a 2 time MVP. Jose has his tendencies of course (being cautious and valuing possesions, having a hamstring injury all last season, so not able to cut to the rim, and he does not penetrate nearly as well as some of the other high assist point guards) but I still think that he would be more productive in the paint if he had a stud inside to pass to.

Nash would still have the same liabilities in that neither Bosh or Bargs are great low post threats, but as you suggest, he'd open up space for them and get them wide open looks with his creativity. I think that's a big part of the reasoning behind BC's acquisition of Hedo, to further spread the floor and to get his bigs more open looks. As a Raptors fan I go through hell watching them avoid the rim for weeks at a time. Since we don't have beasts at the big positions, we will need creativity to get better looks in the low post. Prime Nash would have been able to do wonders with those two, but then again, that could be said of many bigs who get to work with a creative PG like him.


But your right, some players prefer their own spots and thats the sole target you can look for if your a playmaker.

I'm definitely hoping that Calderon does more than move the ball around the perimeter this season. I know he can do it because I've seen him do it a lot. But he's the type of low TO ratio player who wants to avoid the risky pass. Combined with his hamstring injury last year, the only passes he was making were to shooters. Hopefully he's healed this year and the coaches have their way with him, getting him to run the floor more aggressively.