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View Full Version : Found something interesting on Raymond Felton



DerekRE_3
08-14-2009, 04:35 AM
I'm one of Raymond Felton's biggest supporters if you didn't know that by now, and I think it's imperative that we sign him to a long term deal. I think he's one of the most underrated PG's in the league, and I just found some interesting stats on 82games.com.

Disclaimer: I am not saying Raymond Felton is the best defensive point guard in the NBA

Statistically, Raymond Felton is the best defender out of all the starting PG's in the NBA (at least that I know of, I can't find someone better). When people talk about good defensive point guards, usually Rajon Rondo, Chauncey Billups, and Chris Paul get mentioned. Felton is usually not mentioned at all.

Here are his opponents #'s for the 2008-2009 season. The stats are adjusted per 48 minutes:
16.7 PPG 7.0 APG 4.3 TO 4.0 RPG 48% FG 13.0 PER
*PER - Player efficiency rating

Now here are Felton's stats per 48 minutes:
17.3 PPG 9.9 APG 3.6 TO 4.5 RPG 44.4% FG 15.9 PER

He beats his opponent in every statistical category (he even gets more blocks) except for in field goal percentage, but we all know Ray isn't the greatest shooter.

If you don't know what PER is, here is a definition:

The Player Efficiency Rating is ESPN Insider writer John Hollinger's all-in-one basketball rating, which boils down all of a player's contributions into one number. Using a detailed formula, Hollinger developed a system that rates every player's statistical performance.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Player_Efficiency_Rating

The average PER is always set at 15. Felton's opponent's PER is an average of 13, which is below the average in the NBA.

Here is a nice breakdown of what PER means for a player:


*A Year For the Ages: 35.0
*Runaway MVP Candidate: 30.0
*Strong MVP Candidate: 27.5
*Weak MVP Candidate: 25.0
*Bona fide All-Star: 22.5
*Borderline All-Star: 20.0
*Solid 2nd option: 18.0
*3rd Banana: 16.5
*Pretty good player: 15.0
*In the rotation: 13.0
*Scrounging for minutes: 11.0
*Definitely renting: 9.0
*On next plane to Yakima: 5.0
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Player_Efficiency_Rating

Now here are the PER's for the opponents of some notable point guards:

Chris Paul: 17.2
Rajon Rondo: 16.5
Chauncey Billups: 16.2
Deron Williams: 17.3
Jason Kidd: 21.7
Russell Westbrook: 16.1 (He's on the list because he's known to be a very good perimeter defender)
Tony Parker: 16.7

Out of everyone on the list, Raymond Felton is the only point guard to hold his opponent under the average PER of 15, and it's not even that close. Westbrook comes the closest with 16.1, while Felton's is 13.

I know not to look too far into stats, but I just found it interesting that Felton's defensive stats are so much better than everyone else's. And I think it just shows how underrated of a defender he is. He may give up a good field goal percentage, but he does a great job of limiting the amount of shots his opponent gets, and does an especially great job of limiting their assists and forcing turnovers. Assists and turnovers are huge for point guards obviously, and Raymond does a great job at keeping other PG's assist to turnover ratio low.

Chronz
08-14-2009, 05:21 AM
Ive been thinking about this one as well, back when I was trying to get the defensive project off the ground the main guy I had in mind for the PG position was Felton, it just doesnt seem possible given his diminutive stature, and the uninspired ranks with conventional defensive metrics. Your definitely on the right track, where we take it from here gets tricky.

First we have to get the semantics resolved, on 82g's depth chart it lists him guarding opposing 2's when you guys paired them together. Was this how the matchups worked, because a good portion of their playing time is chunked together.

We then have to establish whether this is a 1 time fluke (or possibly a matter of him entering his defensive prime), if the teams defense was noticeably different without him on the court, if its a product of the teams help defensive scheme, if so whos most responsible. If the matchups were indeed different the standard error increases and we have to actually account for the lineup change and the expected output of the counterpart. This process is so much easier and consistent with bigmen because they tend to have the same responsibilities and their area of operation isnt as large.

So before I get into the subject, what do you recall the matchups looking like when the 2 PG's were on the floor together?

DerekRE_3
08-14-2009, 05:48 AM
Ive been thinking about this one as well, back when I was trying to get the defensive project off the ground the main guy I had in mind for the PG position was Felton, it just doesnt seem possible given his diminutive stature, and the uninspired ranks with conventional defensive metrics. Your definitely on the right track, where we take it from here gets tricky.

First we have to get the semantics resolved, on 82g's depth chart it lists him guarding opposing 2's when you guys paired them together. Was this how the matchups worked, because a good portion of their playing time is chunked together.

We then have to establish whether this is a 1 time fluke (or possibly a matter of him entering his defensive prime), if the teams defense was noticeably different without him on the court, if its a product of the teams help defensive scheme, if so whos most responsible. If the matchups were indeed different the standard error increases and we have to actually account for the lineup change and the expected output of the counterpart. This process is so much easier and consistent with bigmen because they tend to have the same responsibilities and their area of operation isnt as large.

So before I get into the subject, what do you recall the matchups looking like when the 2 PG's were on the floor together?

When Augustin and Felton were together on the court, Felton always defended the opposing 2 guard. Augustin is just too small to guard 2's, and isn't nearly as good of a defender. On offense, Felton remained the point guard, and orchestrated the offense. Augustin was mostly used as a shooter last year when he was paired with Felton (think Mike Bibby).

For the Bobcats 5 man units, Felton spent the most minutes at PG. According to the site, he spent 1369 minutes at the point and 447 minutes at the 2 with Augustin. These numbers don't seem to add up though, since Felton played over 3,000 total minutes last year. About half of his minutes aren't accounted for. Here are Felton's opponent's stats at SG:

*Per 48 minutes:
18.7 PPG 4.8 RPG 4.3 APG 2.4 TO 49.7% FG 16.0 PER

Definitely not as good there, but that's understandable considering Felton is only 6 feet tall while most SG's are 6'5 or taller. He did give up almost 50% eFG but that's understandable considering guys can much more easily just shoot over him. Let's look at other SG's opponents PER:

Raja Bell: 15.8
Rip Hamilton: 13.3
Dwyane Wade: 15.4
Kobe Bryant: 14.1
Brandon Roy: 17.1
Shane Battier (at SG): 12.0
Dahntay Jones: 19
JR Smith: 14.1

Felton definitely isn't as good of a defender at the SG spot but he isn't horrible, and considering his lack of size he does a pretty good job. I think what helps him is his strength, he is pretty strong for his size, and is pretty thickly built. He is also one of the faster point guards in the league, so that definitely helps him.

NBA_Starter
08-16-2009, 05:59 PM
It should be a no brainer to sign him long term, from what I gather he wants to stay here and we def. would hurt losing such a talent.